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Brexit Irish property price for sale crash again

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    #62
    intheclouds
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,175 ✭✭✭intheclouds


    Hazydays123 wrote: »
    If you've been living in a rental, saving for the past few years, have your deposit together and have gone through the rigmarole of getting mortgage approved, there's no way that you're going to hold back on buying a home because of Brexit.

    But if you are already living in your own home and are simply buying somewhere else to have more space, you might well think of holding back (thats where Im at).

    I dont have to move, I dont have to worry about the rental market, I just want to move. There will be many more like me.


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    #63
    draiochtanois
    Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭draiochtanois


    This post has been deleted.


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    #64
    draiochtanois
    Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭draiochtanois


    This post has been deleted.


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    #65
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    draiochtanois wrote: »
    This post has been deleted.

    If a bank thinks it makes sense to slow-down lending (and I am not saying it is the case), it certainly has a lever to do so.


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    #66
    Hazydays123
    Closed Accounts Posts: 215 ✭✭Hazydays123


    intheclouds wrote: »
    But if you are already living in your own home and are simply buying somewhere else to have more space, you might well think of holding back (thats where Im at).

    I dont have to move, I dont have to worry about the rental market, I just want to move. There will be many more like me.

    Yes and maybe the houses in your sector of the market will see price changes. I assume you're trading up to a 3/4 bed family home. But those of us who are in the market for our first home (2 bed houses, apts, etc) are trying to get out of the rental market asap. I'd prefer to put €15000 into a mortgage next year rather than into rent.

    I actually think prices are at an ok level right now considering supply issues.


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    #67
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    draiochtanois wrote: »
    This post has been deleted.

    You got part of it, the balance sheet.

    A slowdown in the market based on rational or irrational fears is only going to have a negative effect on any parts of the balance sheets linked to property values.


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    #68
    Sh1tbag OToole
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,973 ✭✭✭Sh1tbag OToole


    Brextastic! If this is true I might actually be able to afford something now


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    #69
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Sh1tbag OToole wrote: »
    Brextastic! If this is true I might actually be able to afford something now

    If there is a slowdown (and that's not a foregone conclusion) cash buyers or those with access to finance may be able to benefit.


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    #70
    draiochtanois
    Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭draiochtanois


    This post has been deleted.


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    #71
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    draiochtanois wrote: »
    This post has been deleted.

    I would guess they're usually reflected in the reducing values on the balance sheet based on the current market value of assets.


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    #72
    intheclouds
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,175 ✭✭✭intheclouds


    Hazydays123 wrote: »
    Yes and maybe the houses in your sector of the market will see price changes. I assume you're trading up to a 3/4 bed family home. But those of us who are in the market for our first home (2 bed houses, apts, etc) are trying to get out of the rental market asap. I'd prefer to put €15000 into a mortgage next year rather than into rent.

    What percentage of the market of house movers are first time buyers I wonder?


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    #73
    Askthe EA
    Registered Users Posts: 724 ✭✭✭Askthe EA


    intheclouds wrote: »
    What percentage of the market of house movers are first time buyers I wonder?

    32% of the buyers in the US were FTB in 2015. I'd assume were probably a little higher than that.


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    #74
    intheclouds
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,175 ✭✭✭intheclouds


    Askthe EA wrote: »
    32% of the buyers in the US were FTB in 2015. I'd assume were probably a little higher than that.

    Oh - I didnt realise it was so low.


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    #75
    Sh1tbag OToole
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,973 ✭✭✭Sh1tbag OToole


    draiochtanois wrote: »
    This post has been deleted.

    There's a lever deep underground in a masonic lodge. Tis a bit like the engine telegraph on an ould steam ship. The crowd in the central bank / ECB don't know what's controlling it. In fact most don't even know its there, its hidden inside in a safe of one of the top boys' offices behind a bookcase that can only be opened if the entrance to the office is locked.


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    #76
    murphaph
    Registered Users Posts: 19,019 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    If Brexit really happens and freedom of movement for EU citizens is restricted then expect lots more inward migration into Ireland. There are millions of teenagers in eastern Europe learning English as their second language right now. Where do you reckon they'll look to if the UK restricts their migration? English is the language of choice and has been since the fall of communism. Demand for accommodation will skyrocket in Ireland.


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    #77
    cardinal tetra
    Registered Users Posts: 299 ✭✭cardinal tetra


    murphaph wrote: »
    If Brexit really happens and freedom of movement for EU citizens is restricted then expect lots more inward migration into Ireland. There are millions of teenagers in eastern Europe learning English as their second language right now. Where do you reckon they'll look to if the UK restricts their migration? English is the language of choice and has been since the fall of communism. Demand for accommodation will skyrocket in Ireland.

    You do realise that they are not going to just stop people coming in to the uk? They are not bricking up the tunnel and reeling in the bridges. People will still be able to come into the country and fluent English speaking ones will be at the head of the queue.

    This pontificating on speculatory aspects of brexit is a nonsense.

    The only factual accuracy your point relates to is demand and supply and knowing this is not the be all and end all of economics.


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    #78
    athtrasna
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,420 ✭✭✭✭athtrasna


    A reminder once again to please focus on accommodation and property aspects of the situation please.

    Mod


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    #79
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 24,715 ✭ [Deleted User]


    audi12 wrote: »
    The price of homes in the rest of the country fell by 0.6% in April, the second monthly fall in a row.

    A quote taken directly from the rte property section backing up the my home.ie and Irish times website. Tell me now im talking crap.

    http://m.rte.ie/news/2016/0704/799971-property-price-rises/

    Still going to keep claiming prices fell?


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    #80
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Kaylie Savory Alfalfa wrote: »
    http://m.rte.ie/news/2016/0704/799971-property-price-rises/

    Still going to keep claiming prices fell?

    Well the OP was talking MoM change in actual selling price and your link is referring to YoY change in asking price.

    You're just not talking about the same thing ...


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    #81
    intheclouds
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,175 ✭✭✭intheclouds


    Kaylie Savory Alfalfa wrote: »
    http://m.rte.ie/news/2016/0704/799971-property-price-rises/

    Still going to keep claiming prices fell?

    The change is asking price is less relevant than the change in selling price.


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    #82
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 24,715 ✭ [Deleted User]


    intheclouds wrote: »
    The change is asking price is less relevant than the change in selling price.

    Stuff is selling for more than asking in nearly every instance at the moment so the asking price is an excellent indicator. Its not like selling cars, houses tend to be priced close to what they will be sold for and often slightly lower than what they should achieve to attract interest.

    They also refer to rises in month to month, a 5% rise from April to June 2016. " a sharp increase in asking prices for newly listed properties in the three months to the end of June".


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    #83
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Kaylie Savory Alfalfa wrote: »
    Stuff is selling for more than asking in nearly every instance at the moment so the asking price is an excellent indicator. Its not like selling cars, houses tend to be priced close to what they will be sold for and often slightly lower than what they should achieve to attract interest.

    I don't think you will find any data to support that statement. There are many ghost adds on websites from agencies/owners which are advertising inflated asking prices to test the market or pretend they are trying to sell a property.

    And in any case if you have stats available on actual selling prices, it will always give you a better idea of what is actually happening than asking prices.


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    #84
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 24,715 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Bob24 wrote: »
    I don't think you will find any data to support that statement. There are many ghost adds on websites from agencies/owners which are advertising inflated asking prices to test the market or pretend they are trying to sell a property.

    And in any case if you have stats available on actual selling prices, it will always give you a better idea of what is actually happening than asking prices.

    I'm basing it on my own experience of following properties for sale in Cork mainly but also Galway.


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    #85
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Bob24 wrote: »
    I don't think you will find any data to support that statement. There are many ghost adds on websites from agencies/owners which are advertising inflated asking prices to test the market or pretend they are trying to sell a property.

    And in any case if you have stats available on actual selling prices, it will always give you a better idea of what is actually happening than asking prices.

    Read through the daft report quoted in the news article, it also refers to actual transaction prices being higher than asking prices. I understand data is take from the property price register so it's about as accurate as you're going to get.


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    #86
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Graham wrote: »
    Read through the daft report quoted in the news article, it also refers to actual transaction prices being higher than asking prices. I understand data is take from the property price register so it's about as accurate as you're going to get.

    Yes but this is only for properties which are actually selling (as they need to compare to the actual selling price on the PPR). If a property is put on sale but never sold because the asking price is unrealistically high, it will inflate the average asking price figure, but be ignored as part of their asking price / selling price difference index. Both in Counnacht/Ulster and Munster, the report mentions that the rate of properties sold stalls around 50% both after 4 months and 6 months of being advertised. Many of those are probably not selling because the asking price is unrealistic.


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    #87
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Bob24 wrote: »
    Yes but this is only for properties which are actually selling

    Isn't the selling price the relevant part when you're discussing a 'property price for sale crash'.


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    #88
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Graham wrote: »
    Isn't the selling price the relevant part when you're discussing a 'property price for sale crash'.

    Yes exactly. Hence my reservations about commenting on increases of average asking prices. If 50% of properties advertised are never sold (as seems to be the case in the regions we were discussion), the average asking price doesn't mean much as it is obviously often unrealistic, and only the actual selling price is a real indicator of the market.


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    #89
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Bob24 wrote: »
    Yes exactly. Hence my reservations about commenting on increases of average asking prices. If 50% of properties advertised are never sold (as seems to be the case in the regions we were discussion), the average asking price doesn't mean much as it is obviously often unrealistic, and only the actual selling price is a real indicator of the market.

    Unless I'm missing something (which is quite possible given the limited coffee intake so far this morning):

    Transaction price = price recorded for actual sales as per the property price register = real price


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    #90
    Bob24
    Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    Graham wrote: »
    Unless I'm missing something (which is quite possible given the limited coffee intake so far this morning):

    Transaction price = price recorded for actual sales as per the property price register = real price

    Yes, but unless I read it wrong, the only price figure on the daft report which is based on what you are mentioning is on page 9: 1.4% national Quarter-on-quarter change in average transaction prices.

    Unless I read it incorrectly every other price figure is based on asking prices.


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    #91
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 24,715 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Here is one very strong example of what I'm encountering.

    From the property price register.

    13/06/2016 €201,000.00 33 ORCHARD COURT, ORCHARD RD, VICTORIA CROSS

    Asking price on the above was 165k http://www.daft.ie/cork/apartments-for-sale/wilton/33-orchard-courtvictoria-cross-wilton-cork-1179279/.

    Also look below, sold one month earlier for over 30k less and as far as I remember the one below was actually a nicer apartment (more recently done up I mean the actual apartments are more or less identical).

    04/05/2016 €167,000.00 13 ORCHARD COURT, VICTORIA CROSS, CORK.


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