An amateur starts a thread

chompdown

Hey man, sorry for late reply. Busy day. I have various stops for both July and August banks. Basically at a total loss of €1,000 for Dollar positions and €700 for the oil positions.

Just to confirm my consolidated entry points:

Long Oil, €2.0 per point @ 41.648
Short US Dollar, €0.9 per point @ 97.000

No panic with oil, current price is 41.490

chompdown

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Oil is falling over a cliff today all news not good from Saudi or US, possibly hit 38/39 today. Be careful.

Oil performing very nicely this afternoon. Like I said earlier, when you start hearing only negative stories about oil and everybody is saying it's only going down, that is not the time to short.

drunkmonkey

I had to fight myself not to short it this morning. It's erratic, I'm not sure I'd feel comfortable going long on it. I think it's one of those things to get out of quick and take profits and go again the following day.
If you took your €1000 and just grew it by 5% every day you'd have €6.5 million in 6mts. I'm a big fan of daily compounding. : )

ixus

chompdown wrote: »

Oil performing very nicely this afternoon. Like I said earlier, when you start hearing only negative stories about oil and everybody is saying it's only going down, that is not the time to short.

It was actually a positive story that turned oil. Heavy volume selling yest and this AM. The new Saudi energy minister came out dovish in his first oil statement about Opec etc. Given it is his first time, markets gonna listen.

Was off the desk at the time. Would have put my house on it.

drunkmonkey

There were a lot of negative story's first, I looked when I woke about 7 and it was doom and gloom.

chompdown

Yes, it looks very, very likely that the low for oil was indeed last week.

I was fortunate to be able to get in at the same average price I sold three of my 0.5 positions, after my comments last week suggesting a drop early this week. That never materialised. Thankfully I was sensible enough to buy back in on that weakness yesterday.

ixus

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There were a lot of negative story's first, I looked when I woke about 7 and it was doom and gloom.

Agreed. There are speakers who can shift markets. Saudi's in oil, Draghi and other CBankers, etc.

Keep an eye out on Russia and Ukraine. While markets only really reacted to the downing of airplane last time, if Russia go into Ukraine, we got to see US and Nato response. Russia are doing this during election year and Olympics. Very similar to Georgia in 2008. Might put a bid in USD over weekend.

chompdown

It would take something pretty big to move the Dollar significantly above the 200 DMA. An auld war would do that!

drunkmonkey

chompdown wrote: »

Hey man, sorry for late reply. Busy day. I have various stops for both July and August banks. Basically at a total loss of €1,000 for Dollar positions and €700 for the oil positions.

Just to confirm my consolidated entry points:

Long Oil, €2.0 per point @ 41.648
Short US Dollar, €0.9 per point @ 97.000

No panic with oil, current price is 41.490

Well are you going to take profit? Must have don't ok in the last few days?0

L'prof

What's your current P/L OP? Will you be communicating this on a regular basis?

chompdown

Yeah I will be posting screenshots at the end of every week. It's just it takes two screenshots and then I need to merge them. Here are this weeks ones. I will add the figures by editing this post this evening. All in all a great week

drunkmonkey

Good going, by my calculations if you keep it up by the 24th of January you'll be a Millionaire and that's even with taking the weekends off : )

What's the outlook for this week?

chompdown

chompdown wrote: »

Yeah I will be posting screenshots at the end of every week. It's just it takes two screenshots and then I need to merge them. Here are this weeks ones. I will add the figures by editing this post this evening. All in all a great week

Couldn't have wished for a better week really, especially after incorrectly predicting a pullback in the US markets and a subsequent drop in oil. The low was indeed the week before and it's looking unlikely that it will retest that area for a good while yet.

The dollar didn't show too much follow on strength after the very big July jobs report, and failed to get above the 200 DMA. That little bounce and subsequent failure has created a nice downtrend and there should be more weakness this week. Here are the numbers.

Week 4 update
Total deposits: 1473
Position 1: Short USDX (Sept) 0.9 @ 97.000
Position 2: Long US Crude (Sept) 2.0 @ 41.648

Current balance: 3447
Weekly change: + 928

Total P/L: 1974 / 134%

chompdown

The great run is continuing as oil rises and the dollar falls again this week. Over the next couple of days the dollar should find a short term bottom and I'll take a little bit off the table, with a view to adding again at a slightly higher price.

The first goal to reach a balance of 5k is actually not far off already. Ridiculously good start. Looking forward to my September deposit already, with July and August looking so healthy.

All that said, it only takes one or two small things to change things from looking good to looking ugly, and as one poster mentioned early, the good start could be just building up a false sense of security / confidence.

chompdown

Hey Odd, I spotted this post of yours from another thread and wanted to post it here as I think it's really appropriate here.

For ever odd wrote: »

A professional trader is not the one who was more trading screens, better equipment or the better indicators. A professional trader is defined by how he approaches his trading mentally and how he evaluates his trading routine. Therefore, every amateur trader can easily acquire the mindset of a professional trader by following a few principles and changing his approach. The following article walks you through the 6 most common trading principles that make the biggest difference between an amateur and a professional trader.

#1 Distractions and focus
Amateur: Watches YouTube videos, is online at Facebook, chats in Skype or watches TV while trading. The amateur loses focus easily and does multiple things when there is no setup in sight or markets are currently slow. He, therefore, misses trades easily, makes mistakes when calculating his position and when executing trades.

Pro: When the professional trader is trading, he is 100% focused and does nothing else besides watching his charts. He might have a website open to monitor news releases or watch the news ticker on a TV channel (on mute!), but that s it. The pro knows how important it is to be 100% focused and when there is nothing to do and no trading setup in sight, he turns off his platform, works on his trading skills or just takes the day off.

#2 Wasting screen-time
Amateur: Amateur traders tend to watch charts for hours at a time and randomly flip through timeframes on the hunt for a trade. The myth that screen-time will help a trader become better is still accepted among amateur traders. Watching charts for the sake of it has no value whatsoever if you don t know what you are looking for.

Pro: The professional trader has a detailed trading plan and knows exactly what he is looking for and when he is going to trade. He does not flip through timeframes, but just waits patiently until the trade comes to him. He does not waste his time by sitting in front of his charts all day long when there is nothing to do. When there is nothing to do, the professional goes back to his trading journal and reviews his past performance to find ways to become better.

#3 Overconfidence after a winning streak
Amateur: The amateur trader believes that after a few winning trades in a row he has acquired superior skills or that his trading strategy is suddenly a money machine and cannot fail anymore. The problem is that after a few winning trades, amateur traders use too much risk and take trades that are too big or violate their trading rules because they can feel what will happen next.

It s not uncommon that after 4 or 5 winning trades, traders lose all their profits on only one trade. Are you guilty of that too?

Pro: The professional trader knows that he is not suddenly a super trader and cannot predict what is going to happen next. A winning streak is normal and will happen time after time; it is just how trading works. A professional trader ALWAYS sticks to his plan, always follows his risk and money management rules and NEVER lets one losing trade wipe out a significant amount of his capital.

#4 Loss of confidence after a losing streak
Amateur: When having a losing streak, the amateur trader loses confidence in his skills and his trading strategy. An amateur trader tends to change his trading strategy when he enters a losing streak or breaks his trading rules because he wants to make up for his losses.

Losing streaks are dangerous for amateur traders because they often lead to even bigger losses when traders try to make up for lost money.

Pro: For the professional trader, winning and losing streaks don t matter. They are inevitable and will happen over and over again. A professional trader knows that over the long term, his trading strategy will make him money, no matter what. A professional trader sticks to his rules and never loses his mind.

#5 Taking losses personally
Amateur: It is hard to accept that your trade idea was wrong and that you are going to lose money. Especially new and inexperienced traders can t accept to be wrong and when they see that price is about to hit their stop loss order, they will do one of the following things:

Setting a stop loss further away to delay the loss
Adding to a losing position to get out of the loss faster when price turns around
Taking off the stop loss order completely because eventually, the price will have to turn around

All these tactics will lead to large losses and to margin calls. A trader who is engaging in one of the three mentioned scenarios is as far away from becoming a professional trader as possible.

Pro: The professional trader lives by the following two principles:

One trade is just one trade and the outcome of one single trade does not matter
The stop loss order is the price where you fully accept that your trade idea was wrong and where you WANT to exit the market

The professional trader knows that the outcome of one trade is totally irrelevant to his trading career. Whether a single trade is a winner or a loser does not matter because there will be 400, 500 or 800 trades coming soon where he can make money. A professional trader also accepts that a stop loss is the place where his trade is wrong and that he is happy to exit the trade because it is not going to make him money.

#6 Do you need money fast?
Amateur: What is your trading objective? Do you believe that trading is a way to make a lot of money in a short period of time? Research showed that traders who believe that they can get rich quick with trading lose the most amount of money.

Pro: For the professional trader, trading is a regular job. The professional trader does not trade for the excitement or because he wants to make a fortune with a few lucky trades. Trading is not an easy profession and it requires time, hard work and a lot of hustling before you can make money. In the end, being a trader is a job like many other jobs.

Conclusion: Fake it until you make it
To become a professional trader, act like one. Behaving like a professional trader does not require a lot of capital or expensive equipment. You can trade like a professional trader RIGHT now. Analyze your trading behavior and then see how you can make the adjustments to take your trading to the next level.

http://www.tradeciety.com/ultimate-math-guide-for-traders/

chompdown

chompdown wrote: »

The dollar has continued to drop so I have added 0.1 more at 95.545. That will bring my average price down a bit but it is looking increasingly likely that I timed the top in the Dollar very well indeed.

Just closed this at a price of 94.685 with a profit of 86.

I will maybe close another 0.1 but will leave the other positions, and not worry about any bounce in the dollar that may come now over the next couple of days.

chompdown

chompdown wrote: »

I was able to add Trade 5 during the sell off after the initial spike in the dollar, just 0.1 @ 97.395

Closed @ 94.787 with a profit of 260.

Looks like the dollar has found its short term low and will rally a bit from here.

Still holding 0.7. Will be getting back in quite soon, probably up to the max of 1.0

chompdown

Bit of an amateur move from me; I am actually on holidays now and had not contacted my service provider to ask them to roll over the US Crude positions into the October contracts, so all the positions were closed last night.

I have placed orders again for re-entry and will inform when they get filled.

US Dollar continuing to drop!

ixus

No harm in staying flat while on holidays.

The OPEC talks are BS. Same stuff ramped markets earlier in year. They will do nothing. It's called jawbone.

The ramp was facilitated by option expiry in wti last night. Brent might tag the $50 but would expect some pair back. The Saudi's are actually pumping MORE while talking of freezes. And they ain't gonna play ball with Iran now that Iran are allowing Russia use their bases.

Any further bid is gonna come from weakening USD in light of FED comments.

It's all about Jackson Hole now.

For ever odd

chompdown wrote: »

Bit of an amateur move from me; I am actually on holidays now and had not contacted my service provider to ask them to roll over the US Crude positions into the October contracts, so all the positions were closed last night.

I have placed orders again for re-entry and will inform when they get filled.

US Dollar continuing to drop!

If that's the worst move you make all year, you'll be grand.
It's always good to keep the p&l ticking over anyway.

Pace yourself (and enjoy) , you will pick up the nuances quickly as you go, but you will have to defend your profits, in case of future cock ups.

Fair play to ya on the winning start. Traders like to see people making money.

chompdown

Oil and the dollar sliced right through their trend lines with no resistance / support respectively.

I may need to get back into both 100% very soon, especially the dollar, as there could be an even sharper drop very soon. Thankfully still 70% in.

Oil is also performing remarkably well and also likely to continue this way for weeks rather than days. Could do with a pull back to get back involved. Only purchased 0.5 this morning (at 47.620).

I should not have tried to be smart and just bought fully back in, but these are things to learn from. I will however continue to try to wait for a pullback, which I already expected at 48.0!

chompdown

ixus wrote: »

No harm in staying flat while on holidays.

The OPEC talks are BS. Same stuff ramped markets earlier in year. They will do nothing. It's called jawbone.

The ramp was facilitated by option expiry in wti last night. Brent might tag the $50 but would expect some pair back. The Saudi's are actually pumping MORE while talking of freezes. And they ain't gonna play ball with Iran now that Iran are allowing Russia use their bases.

Any further bid is gonna come from weakening USD in light of FED comments.

It's all about Jackson Hole now.

As strange as it sounds, the signals to buy or sell are all based on cycles and sentiment rather than news. News is just noise and is almost always already priced in (with things like Brexit the exception to the rule). So, if you are reacting to comments from central banks or oil ministers you are one or two steps behind.

Cycles and sentiment will not always provide winning trades, but I haven't seen a better way yet.

ixus

The news/noise from OPEC & FED are what boosted your positions. Not technicals.

chompdown

Yes but you need to ask the question why I was in those positions before the news rather than after? Luck? Maybe / maybe not!

Esel

OP, are you posting your own wisdom here or copying and pasting from your advisor?

I'm a bit puzzled, unless you are a genuine, actual amateur in the original sense of the word (and if so, the thread puzzles me further).

chompdown

I'm not copying and pasting but it's not my own either. There was some issue with perceived promotion, which was totally understandable so I've decided to just comment about my positions generally rather than he says this and I say that...

chompdown

chompdown wrote: »

Oil is also performing remarkably well and also likely to continue this way for weeks rather than days. Could do with a pull back to get back involved. Only purchased 0.5 this morning (at 47.620).

I am now back to 2.0 per point in US Crude, now on the October contracts.

Long US Crude @ 0.5 @ 48.685
Long US Crude @ 1.0 @ 48.745

I also have re-entered the US Dollar position up to 0.9 per point. I was expecting support at 94.5 area but it fell straight through that and now believe that could act as a ceiling. Would have been better off just hoping on to those 0.2 positions but again a learning curve!

Short USD @ 94.392

chompdown

A little celebratory moment as the balance gets to over €5,000!

For ever odd

There was a lad called chompdown
Who made all his peers frown
He didn't like the Buck
Or really give a fcuk
And tucked five grand in his crown.

Francie Barrett

I am delighted you are making money, but I still think your trades are far too risky.

One of the seminal events of my short trading career was 9/11. Whole piles of traders on a forum I used to visit had long positions in oil in anticipation of a recovery. Once the planes hit, oil tanked and the bear market was brutal and unrelenting, down about 30% in a month. You could tell the traders who got wiped out because their "last signed in" date on their profile remained the same shortly after the carnage. I fear you are going the same way, you only need to be wrong once.

chompdown

Francie, you are absolutely right, any one day shock event could wipe me out almost instantly. But remember I have only 1500 of my own skin in the game here. It's less than a month's salary for most people and it's not going to have a massive effect on my life if I lose it.

That said, the disappointment of losing the whole bank could have a drastic effect of me depositing more and losing that too. That is a big worry for me and I feel this thread will help me avoid it. It has kept me very disciplined so far.

L'prof

chompdown wrote: »

Francie, you are absolutely right, any one day shock event could wipe me out almost instantly. But remember I have only 1500 of my own skin in the game here. It's less than a month's salary for most people and it's not going to have a massive effect on my life if I lose it.

That said, the disappointment of losing the whole bank could have a drastic effect of me depositing more and losing that too. That is a big worry for me and I feel this thread will help me avoid it. It has kept me very disciplined so far.

If you're worried about your bank, then maybe work in some sort of system where you withdraw a certain % of your profits? 10% of each trade maybe?

chompdown

I'm not too worried about my bank, but I said earlier in the thread that I would re-evaluate stakes / stops etc when I got to 5k so I will do that when I get back from holidays at the end of next week. Bank closed at 4999 this week

For ever odd

chompdown wrote: »

Francie, you are absolutely right, any one day shock event could wipe me out almost instantly. But remember I have only 1500 of my own skin in the game here. It's less than a month's salary for most people and it's not going to have a massive effect on my life if I lose it.

That said, the disappointment of losing the whole bank could have a drastic effect of me depositing more and losing that too. That is a big worry for me and I feel this thread will help me avoid it. It has kept me very disciplined so far.

You're looking at it all wrong; You have 4999 skin in the game. You protect it and don't let the market take it away.

chompdown

Week 5 update
Total deposits: €1473
Position 1: Short USDX (Sept) 0.9
Position 2: Long US Crude (Oct) 2.0

Current balance: €4999
Weekly change: + €1552

Total P/L: €3526 / 239%

chompdown

chompdown wrote: »

Week 5 update
Total deposits: €1473
Position 1: Short USDX (Sept) 0.9
Position 2: Long US Crude (Oct) 2.0

Current balance: €4999
Weekly change: + €1552

Total P/L: €3526 / 239%

Now with screenshot. There's one extra position not visible on screen but can't be ar5ed making and merging 2 screenshots

chompdown

I am now fully invested into both positions for the first time, after my two orders were filled today.

The dollar had a nice little bounce and sell off. It really is looking increasing likely that the dollar has entered a bear market. That will drive prices higher in oil, gold and the stock market.

Oil is down today as it takes a much needed breather but I don't think it will be long before it tests and breaks $50.

Details of both trades as follows:

Short USD 0.1 @ 94.769
Long US Crude 0.5 @ 47.855

chompdown

Should be an interesting day ahead for the dollar with Yellen speaking and also revised Q2 GDP numbers. The charts say that the dollar has not much chance of a rally, and more likely to drop. In September a very significant drop is expected, as traders realise that the Dollar is in fact now in a bear market.

Next week, I plan to add the September deposit, and get further exposure to a weakening dollar, but I'm not 100% sure yet through which market.

For ever odd

chompdown wrote: »

Should be an interesting day ahead for the dollar with Yellen speaking and also revised Q2 GDP numbers. The charts say that the dollar has not much chance of a rally, and more likely to drop. In September a very significant drop is expected, as traders realise that the Dollar is in fact now in a bear market.

Next week, I plan to add the September deposit, and get further exposure to a weakening dollar, but I'm not 100% sure yet through which market.

It seems as if the algo's have been switched off the last couple of days, I'd fully expect them to be switched back on later today - and take as many people out of the market as possible... Maybe a Flush out coming?

ixus

You want to see a compressed chart ready for a major breakout, checkout the US 2yr or 10yr.

Fireworks coming sooner or later.

chompdown

For ever odd wrote: »

It seems as if the algo's have been switched off the last couple of days, I'd fully expect them to be switched back on later today - and take as many people out of the market as possible... Maybe a Flush out coming?

Didn't really follow it but could see quite a lot of volatility with the dollar jumping, then falling and now basically back where it was. Those with tight stops probably the victims again.

chompdown

ixus wrote: »

You want to see a compressed chart ready for a major breakout, checkout the US 2yr or 10yr.

Fireworks coming sooner or later.

I would be more concerned about the double top at 100 if I were you. The Euro also has a nice double bottom.

For what it's worth, I would heavily advise against going long the dollar.

ixus

At 100 what asset are you talking about? I am watching 2yr test high yields (lose asset price value). If this breaks out, 10yr get smoked. I am talking bonds here. They go and USD goes strong bid, equities and commodities will get smashed.

That's how things play out IF 2yr breaks the way it is right now.

For ever odd

chompdown wrote: »

Didn't really follow it but could see quite a lot of volatility with the dollar jumping, then falling and now basically back where it was. Those with tight stops probably the victims again.

Don't you just love it when a plan comes together.
Enjoy the weekend.

chompdown

ixus wrote: »

At 100 what asset are you talking about? I am watching 2yr test high yields (lose asset price value). If this breaks out, 10yr get smoked. I am talking bonds here. They go and USD goes strong bid, equities and commodities will get smashed.

That's how things play out IF 2yr breaks the way it is right now.

Sorry, I read it quickly from my phone. I thought you were talking directly about the Dollar index!

For ever odd

chompdown wrote: »

Sorry, I read it quickly from my phone. I thought you were talking directly about the Dollar index!

Bullsh1t.

chompdown

For ever odd wrote: »

chompdown wrote: »

Sorry, I read it quickly from my phone. I thought you were talking directly about the Dollar index!

Bullsh1t.

What's your problem? A few too many beers tonight?

I am on holidays and read that he thought there was going to be a breakout in the dollar. I stand by all my comments, but didn't realise he was talking about bonds. I have no opinion on bonds.

A higher level of manners would be appreciated.

For ever odd

chompdown wrote: »

What's your problem? A few too many beers tonight?

I am on holidays and read that he thought there was going to be a breakout in the dollar. I stand by all my comments, but didn't realise he was talking about bonds. I have no opinion on bonds.

A higher level of manners would be appreciated.

I stand by all my comments too.

http://www.mssresearch.org/?q=Manners_Behavior_Character_Personality_Individuality

chompdown

Moving swiftly on....

I am now home from my holiday and have a lot of reading to do. This week was my worst yet after Fischer's comments on CNBC got a major over reaction from the market with the Dollar getting heavily bought. That meant I gave up basically all of last week's gains, and I'm now sitting on a balance of €3639. Easy come, easy go!

The dollar is still sitting nicely below it's 200 DMA so no panic yet.

Here are the numbers:

Week 6 update

Bank 1
Balance: €2181
Short USDX (Sept) 1.0 @ 96.362
Zero balance at: $98.543

Bank 2
Balance: €1458
Long US Crude (Oct) 2.5 @ 48.330
Zero balance at: $42.498

Total balance: €3639
Total profit: €2166 (147%)

ixus

The way I see it, you've taken positions base upon technical or other guidance. Events, or noise, like Non Farm Payrolls (NFP),and Opec comments have initally gone with your position. Yesterday, Fischer, who purposefully delivered a message post Yellen sent price action against your position.

There are some major events coming in the next few weeks. NFP, ECB, BoJ, this BS Opec meet and FOMC at month end.

A strong NFP boxes in the FED and ECB inflation projections Thurs week could be a big deal.

I expect the market to be nervous as each one of these events approach.