An amateur starts a thread

Conmc88

A Guru?.....hmmm so this guy/woman has doubled your money in the space of 6 weeks? and he or she is keeping them selves hidden??? hmmmmmmm.......

chompdown

Guru was tongue in cheek. You may have skipped a few pages. - the only reason my account has doubled is because I have doubled the intial deposit with more deposits

Conmc88

apologies:)

chompdown

In work but noticed a big move up in the dollar and drop in silver. Hanging in there and no panic yet! Starting to get used to these now after the big drop from €5k a couple of weeks ago. Would rather be getting used to big up days though. Lets see if I can survive.

chompdown

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Going up 135% in a week is about the worst thing that could have happened to you. You now have a positive confirmation bias of a strategy that is flawed and I think there's a very good chance that you could end up losing your entire bank here. There's even a possibility that you could end up adding new money into the account to meet a margin call. Slippery, slippery slope.

Very prophetic indeed. Today I have added the October deposit already today in September as my account takes a hammering. I won't be adding any new positions, but still a flagrant breaking of the rules.

I strongly believe that there will be no rate rise on wednesday, and just want to make sure I stay alive until then. Hopefully I can accept defeat if I am proven wrong on Wednesday.

ixus

Here's the amateur psychology bit, you won't accept it because you have openly highlighted your failings on discipline and not corrected them yet.

I don't want to know specific p&l but, is your trading postive, flat or negative? I think if your actual trading is negative to flat you should stop adding to the account. It can give you a false impression when you look at a balance. It's real money after all.

Another thought, if you don't already have a mortgage and intend applying for one ever, underwriters raise red flags on high levels of activity from gambling/spread betting accounts.

Finally, I think BoJ has potential for way more volatility next save for an actual rate rise which is not likely based upon all data and messaging from the FED.

ixus

Some of this is worth a read on BoJ. I think they've made a mess on delivering leaks and shown a lot of indecision. It's possible they do nothing and wait. Carnage will ensue. Bond yields have broken range sharply.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/16/if-youre-watching-the-fed-you-better-pay-attention-to-this-instead.html?_source=twitter

chompdown

Cheers for the link ixus and comments. Indeed it is a slippery slope and I'm worried what will happen next week. I have spoken a lot about the 200 DMA in the dollar a lot on this thread and last night it got there, but not beyond.

This rally in the dollar is a lot different to the drop in oil earlier this month, in that my guy is still urging to hold the position and not get stopped out. This is why I have brought forward my next deposit by 2 weeks to beef up the account balance a little and to provide a buffer for next week's guaranteed volatility.

I will post the updated figures later on today but in short I am now nursing a 900 loss! The account balance has been positive ever since the very minor drop in week 1, so this is new territory for me and will be interesting to see how I can handle it.

ixus

What a Trader usually does is reduce size when expecting greater volatility so as not to get taken out of the game. Should be viewed as a long term game.

On the oil front, it's back to fundamentals. Libya and Nigeria coming back online plus a major issue in the East Coast of US. Colonial pipeline is out. Causes Rbob (gasoline) to go through roof as limited supply and crude through the floor as limited demand as the refiner can't refine and pass through the pipeline.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/states-facing-gas-shortages-colonial-pipeline-spill/story?id=42153670

drunkmonkey

Shouldn't touch oil as nearly cleaned out my little account, Apple pulled back most of my losses as went long a few weeks ago and it paid off yesterday. Probably worth shorting them monday. Hype around iPhone launch boosted them with pre orders sold out, story's are nonsense, there sold out as they didn't make enough of certain models and retarded stock, any other company would be lambasted for getting demand so wrong. Nothing more than a marketing trick that long past it's sell by date. There one good competitor away from doom.

This week going to buy some, Macy's, Disney and VW. Hold Macy's until earnings and VW until after Paris motorshow.

Oil, going to use a tiny amount with low leverage and hedge it, hoping to take profit at just below 46 on the way up and just above 41 on the way down. I still think it's going to keep swinging. Pretty confident ill get it wrong but going to be strick with my stop losses.

Small bit or currency, thinking the yen and peso could be good for movement this week.

ixus

It's buy Apple sell Samsung spread. Not just the new phone hype but the damage done to Samsung on its exploding phone.

+10/12% on wk v - 4/5%

drunkmonkey

ixus wrote: »

It's buy Apple sell Samsung spread. Not just the new phone hype but the damage done to Samsung on its exploding phone.

+10/12% on wk v - 4/5%

Apple have weathered a few battery problems themselves usually by ignoring them. Do you think there's another 10% left to go in the short term? Samsung are usually pretty good but all their eggs aren't dependent on one product like Apple.
Samsung might be worth a buy and hold. One of the other manufacturers needs to do something special to top the iPhone but don't see it happening any time soon. The new chip Apple chip in the iPhone 7 is meant to be crushing intel chips in benchmarks. I wouldn't write Apple off but for a short trade I think they'll dip this week a little bit maybe back to early September price, will go up in the long term.
Intel will be under a bit of pressure from Apple.

I need to open another spread bet account somewhere with access to more markets and shares then etoro, any recommendations? Make a good few trades daily when concentrating so somewhere with small fees for overnight holds etc.

chompdown

Getting back on topic...

Week 9 update
Total deposits: €2500
Position 1: Short USDX (Sept) 1.0 @ 96.174 (December)
Position 2: Long Silver (Dec) 15.0 @ 19.533 (December)


Current balance: €1597
Weekly change: -€1163

Total P/L: €903 / -36%

---

So another terrible week as the dollar refuses to drop. Short term aim is pure survival with as big a position as possible until early Wednesday. I may reduce or be forced to reduce before then. Then the fireworks start.

Let's see if the dollar bulls can get it above the 200 DMA.

Wish me luck!

drunkmonkey

ixus wrote: »

It's buy Apple sell Samsung spread. Not just the new phone hype but the damage done to Samsung on its exploding phone.

+10/12% on wk v - 4/5%

Mmm.... what's that hissing https://www.cnet.com/news/iphone-7-owners-their-phones-hissing-fits/

chompdown

Getting back on topic again... A very nice start to the week so far. Today there was a shout to get back into crude, but I'm gonna let that trade pass me by. I am still way too leveraged in the Dolar and Silver positions with this weak account balance.

chompdown

Ok so with an extremely important day ahead tomorrow I'm glad to report that the account has recovered somewhat beforehand. The loss of 903 has been reduced to 184, meaning I have a balance of 2316 that the BOJ and Fed can sink their teeth into.

My position sizes remain the same. The guy closed the oil trade already today at a loss and is close to throwing in the towel and admitting defeat in that market.

ixus

BoJ is tonight. No set time, usually around 4am with presser around 7.

chompdown

So one hurdle has been overcome relatively unscathed. Big move to the downside then upside in silver which is nice but the Dollar has now moved above its 200 DMA which is not so nice!

Hope you made some money on those moves ixus

drunkmonkey

Chomp who's your account with finding the buy and sell price a bit large in etoro can be 13+ in the price difference with each, a small 30 bet can send you 4 negative straight away..?

Macy's, Pepsi & Google all doing well for me after today.

I think Macy's is one to consider getting into while cheap before earnings report.

chompdown

What an interesting day that was yesterday! Since I started this thread, it seems like before the start of every big move upwards there is a relatively sharp drop. Yesterday morning was no different, as the BOJ released their latest proposals. The Dollar index spiked to $96.29, comfortably above the 200 DMA, and Silver dropped to $19.10. I'm sure many were stopped out of their positions.

The Dollar could only stay above that key point for three hours and then steadily declined throughout the day, and then even futher after the Fed failed to raise rates. All that talk from Fischer about two rate hikes being possible was indeed a load of sh1te as I expected. The Fed's credibility must be really taking a hit now.

The start of Yellen's press conference saw a rebound in the Dollar and drop in silver as she tried to be hawkish. It really is such a dog and pony show. Why is there a team of people in charge of setting interest rates and having such a massive effect on the world economy? If I had the chance to ask Yellen a question it would be "Do you believe in central planning?".

Anyway, the moves in the market from Yellen's comments quickly faded and here I am today with a healthy looking balance again. I remain fuly positioned short the dollar and long silver.

The "guru" opened up the oil position again yesterday prior to the FOMC announcement, but again I am giving that a miss. These two positions are more than enough for me right now. He also believes there's gonna be a big breakout in the Nasdaq before the end of the year.

The current target for closing these positions is somewhere around the October jobs report, so hopefully I won't need to trade anything before then.

Drunkmonkey - I'm using LCG (London Capital Group). The only reason I picked them is because they accept Skrill and I had a few quid in there. Their platform isn't anything amazing. There's no funding costs in these futures positions which is nice. Maybe that's the case with other spread betting firms also, I haven't done a lot of research.

chompdown

This experiment is 10 weeks old now and to be still in the game is a big surprise for me. I have largely stayed true to the rules, although adding the October deposit in mid September was bad and is a worry. I don't want to get into that position again.

It's interesting how the mind works. On big down days its hard for me to walk away and stop checking the charts and with one red bar after another, they look like they will never recover. On the up days it's almost like a guilty pleasure and I feel like not checking the charts so as not to jinx them. I feel as time goes on and hopefully as my balance increases and the relative leverage is reduced, there will be far less hairy moments, and I won't feel the need to check the prices as often.

Oil all over the place again and my guy says he is out and done with that market for the time being. Glad I didn't get involved.

Week 10 update
Total deposits: €2500
Position 1: Short USDX (Sept) 1.0 @ 96.174 (December)
Position 2: Long Silver (Dec) 15.0 @ 19.533 (December)

Current balance: €3507
Weekly change: +€1910

Total P/L: +€1007 / +40%

I think that's my best week so far

chompdown

The dollar is already overdue its cycle low and could start to drop today and continue towards the job report on Friday of next week.

So just like when I started this thread I am going to gradually buy into a position of 0.5 short the dollar with the October balance, starting today.

OCT Trade 1.
0.1 per point short USD @ 95.472

ixus

There's fear out there with Deutsche Bank. USD is in demand near term. German bank holiday Monday and it's end of Quarter today. There will be lots of rebalancing of portfolios etc.

chompdown

You may well be right about USD demand but DB is down about 12% this week and the dollar index is basically flat and has tried many times to get above the DMA50 without success.

If one believes in market cycles, the dollar needs to make a low either next week or the week after, and that's what I am betting on.

chompdown

Oct Trade 2
0.1 per point short USD @ 95.667

For ever odd

Keep the head lad, remember about Staying alive.

If it moves in your favour, you might want to consider reducing exposure.... It could be one of those weekends.

All the best.

chompdown

Cheers odd. Yep, no more buys today.

chompdown

Week 11 update
Total deposits: €2500
Position 1: Short USDX 1.2 @ 95.237 (December)
Position 2: Long Silver 15.0 @ 19.533 (December)

Current balance: €2856
Weekly change: -€651

Total P/L: +€356 / +14%

Another interesting week has passed, with my balance taking a bit of a hit but still green. Both silver and the dollar were up and down all week, especially today.

Just as the dollar started to finally reflect the Deutsch Bank fear (as ixus was warning about), it got up close to the 200 DMA again and yet again dropped fast from there. That has happened 4 times since August. Surely the dollar bulls are starting to lose confidence now.

The catalyst seems to have been news that DB will come to an agreement with the USDOJ. The two trades from this morning are both green.

It's Friday, and I'm already looking forward to next week's action!

PS. I noticed that I never updated my average price in the Dollar position after moving from Sept to December futures contracts, and the number above is now up to date.

chompdown

A little plan of action for next week. It's possible (and likely) that gold will drop below its September low and bring in technical traders who will sell into it or go short. At that point there will a strong reversal which will be the start of the new move higher in gold.

Now I don't have any exposure to gold, but silver will almost always follow it, so I have a plan to sell 5 points (33%) of my long silver position on Sunday night / Monday morning with a view to getting back in at a lower price later in the week.

If the prediction is wrong and silver goes higher than I will accept that and buy back in.

My plan to add another 0.3 points to the Dollar short position is on hold.

The jobs numbers for September are released on Friday so I am waiting to see if I should hold all positions or reduce before then.

iainBB

chompdown wrote: »

A little plan of action for next week. It's possible (and likely) that gold will drop below its September low and bring in technical traders who will sell into it or go short. At that point there will a strong reversal which will be the start of the new move higher in gold.

Now I don't have any exposure to gold, but silver will almost always follow it, so I have a plan to sell 5 points (33%) of my long silver position on Sunday night / Monday morning with a view to getting back in at a lower price later in the week.

If the prediction is wrong and silver goes higher than I will accept that and buy back in.

My plan to add another 0.3 points to the Dollar short position is on hold.

The jobs numbers for September are released on Friday so I am waiting to see if I should hold all positions or reduce before then.

Gold may drop below that September support, it's tried a few times to do so, was watching it my self. Silver has run of of stram recently.

chompdown

Ok, so I sold 5 points of the silver position, 2.0 @ 19.100 and 3.0 @ 19.192. Silver has already risen above those levels.

It did have a sharp drop overnight but only down to around 19.05.

Let's see how it performs over the next hours / days and see if I get back in.

chompdown

Starting to play out as expected. Silver down 1.5%

The dollar is up on good US data but I expect the gains to be reversed again today.

ixus

Frim my point of view (and to give you and alternative look at USD), the daily trend since Aug says this gets stronger. Add into cable weakness on Brexit news, euro weakness on bank concerns and the Geo political situation between Russia and US (which is most significant perhaps).

All compelling reasons for stronger USD. Worth keeping in mind as if it does break stronger, it could really go.

chompdown

You might be right ixus, it looks like the end is nigh!

chompdown

I was warned on Saturday that this may happen - a sharp drop in precious metals (to be followed by a big jump). The extent of the drop in silver is bigger than expected, and the rise in the dollar also more pronounced.

If it can close above the DMA200 then it could be game over for me quite soon. Looks like we may be seeing at least a pause in the big moves now, and hopefully we get a reversal just like the last time it got above the 200. Lets see what happens when the US markets open.

I cannot see the Obama administration allowing any spillover from Deutsch Bank effecting the US markets pre-election so I would not be surprised if there will in fact be a deal with the DOJ, as was earlier announced and then dismissed.

chompdown

ixus wrote: »

Frim my point of view (and to give you and alternative look at USD), the daily trend since Aug says this gets stronger. Add into cable weakness on Brexit news, euro weakness on bank concerns and the Geo political situation between Russia and US (which is most significant perhaps).

All compelling reasons for stronger USD. Worth keeping in mind as if it does break stronger, it could really go.

Just to add (and for the interest of future reference) the USD index price at the time of your post was approx 96.05, and the current price is 96.15.

The reason I'm posting that is because when I opened my first oil position here I got a similar type of post from another boardsie saying it would go the opposite direction, and that marked the bottom in oil.

So it was a good contrarian indicator. Hopefully the same here (no disrespect intended).

ixus

Just when fx was getting going:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-04/ecb-said-to-build-tapering-consensus-as-qe-decision-time-nears-itvni14p

Did you leak it?!

chompdown

Well that was a horrible day and it looks as though this experiment is over and my bank is done for.

Silver dropping over 5% was the real killer. I got margin calls all the way down but somehow still have some positions open and a little bit of cash left.

I'm still short the dollar 0.3 per point and long silver 9 points. My balance is 400 but that will probably be gone by the end of today.

The good news at least is that I didn't deposit anything else.

Let's see if I can survive till the end of the month. The dollar is at 96.0 and silver hovering just below 18.0.

This may end up being the last post. Hope people enjoyed the rise and fall and could learn a few lessons from this!

iainBB

chompdown wrote: »

Well that was a horrible day and it looks as though this experiment is over and my bank is done for.

Silver dropping over 5% was the real killer. I got margin calls all the way down but somehow still have some positions open and a little bit of cash left.

I'm still short the dollar 0.3 per point and long silver 9 points. My balance is 400 but that will probably be gone by the end of today.

The good news at least is that I didn't deposit anything else.

Let's see if I can survive till the end of the month. The dollar is at 96.0 and silver hovering just below 18.0.

This may end up being the last post. Hope people enjoyed the rise and fall and could learn a few lessons from this!

Well done, you went high risk high return. You got the dip prediction in metal right yesterday. I was expecting you sell or short and buy back in. I did. Made a packet.


I suppose the aim of the game is to stay afloat, perhaps try a low risk low return next time. Long term success does not have magic men gurus and high risk position that are leverage to the hilt.

I think it's a product of our culture now to want everything right away with no waiting.

I loved your post. But with leveraging you need to be lucky most of the time.

ixus

Apologies, i thought you were short silver for some reason. Was focussing on fx position. In previous comment. That article accelerated the metals sell off.

chompdown

Cheers Iain, and fair play for going short and buying back in yesterday. The lowest I could see silver going was just under 18.50 and seeing a 17 handle was a massive surprise, but it happens!

If the bottom is in for silver now, and if the more professional players are positioning for the expected move up then I may make it to the end of the month and this can continue, but that is looking very unlikely.

Thanks for your comments throughout the thread, was always good hearing from you.

ixus

Firstky, I just want to say, I understand the psychological battle you're going through right now. I do this every day and you can still have big highs and lows if you are not 100% algo/ programmable logic driven trading. I am mainly discretionary based upon what I know, my experience, understanding of markets and how I read a situation. I get it wrong often.

I would say to think about that 400 . You have control over the market to let it ride or take it back.

I would then suggest, if/when you do step back, to analyse what you did and how you could have improved. Then read the thread and make additional notes. Do this while it's fresh (in the next few days or at weekend) and use it before you get involved again. It could end up being a valuable albeit short term expensive lesson.

chompdown

Thanks ixus, greatcomments again. That's a great idea. Also, thanks for not turning the knife with an I-told-you-so post.

To be honest I am not feeling too bad. It was a slow burn lower yesterday and I could see the writing on the wall (but with that optimistic glimmer of hope that it would turn around in an instant, like the dollar did after ECB announcement).

I will try get time to read the whole thread today and make some notes, maybe post them here also.

chompdown

On a lighter and more positive note, after all my losses yesterday, I found a fiver on my way to work this morning. The irony of it!

ixus

Euromillions

For ever odd

I was thinking of you yesterday and.glad to hear you didn't add funds, it will stand to you.

I know this is not a great time, but when you're finished evaluating the thread, maybe consider a trade plan.... It cuts out the what will I do next syndrome.

All the best.

chompdown

Thanks odd. Yeah I didn't go crazy yesterday at all which is one positive I am taking from this. I took the punishment!

ixus great shout about the euro millions. Horrible value for money and I never play the lotto, but maybe today is a good day to try it

So my last throw of the dice is in. I have closed all Dollar positions and consolidated into long silver 10 points. Dead zone at $17.684.

iainBB

Silver and other metals have really been hit hard this week. So not look good for him.

But would like to hear.

chompdown

Hey Ian, nothing else to report. The bank was wiped out by the big drop in silver and strength of the dollar. Happy to report I didn't make any additional deposits trying to chase losses, and thankfully I didn't because the trend has just continued. Taking an extended break from this experiment!

drunkmonkey

Chomp if it helps any bit I took my funds out of the speadbetting and put in in real shares in degiro. It's a lot more boring and not even nearly as rewarding but with the spread betting you need to be on it like a hawk ready to react at any moment unless you can afford really large stop losses.
One small long on Oil could make it all back for you by december. It's addictive. Should have left some money in my sb account.