An amateur starts a thread

Andrea B.

Chompdown,
Thanks so much for sharing your exercise on this thread.
I imagine the losses will be negated by the lessons learned.

chompdown

I'm back for more punishment!

I took a couple of months out and avoided the big drop in gold/strength in Dollar after Trump's election but timed my re-entry pretty well.

Was debating whether or not to come back on here.

I am still down from when I started the thread but looking a lot healthier now. Here's a screenshot of my deposits.

Currently long Gold and short the Dollar.

iainBB

chompdown wrote: »

I'm back for more punishment!

I took a couple of months out and avoided the big drop in gold/strength in Dollar after Trump's election but timed my re-entry pretty well.

Was debating whether or not to come back on here.

I am still down from when I started the thread but looking a lot healthier now. Here's a screenshot of my deposits.

Currently long Gold and short the Dollar.

I am delighted that you're back in the game gold took a big hit recently I'm currently looking at it myself

chompdown

Thanks Ian. I am currently holding:

36 points long Gold @ 1167.2 and
0.5 points short Dollar @ 101.052

I have deposited €2,173 since the last update in this thread. (Total deposited: €4685)

I closed one position in December, short the dollar for a profit of approx. €350

Current balance: €4,247

My basis for getting back in remains the same as before, i.e. Gold is in the early phases of a bull market, and the dollar is heading down into an intermediate cycle low. Still following the same guy.

Have you any positions open?

iainBB

chompdown wrote: »

Thanks Ian. I am currently holding:

36 points long Gold @ 1167.2 and
0.5 points short Dollar @ 101.052

I have deposited €2,173 since the last update in this thread. (Total deposited: €4685)

I closed one position in December, short the dollar for a profit of approx. €350

Current balance: €4,247

My basis for getting back in remains the same as before, i.e. Gold is in the early phases of a bull market, and the dollar is heading down into an intermediate cycle low. Still following the same guy.

Have you any positions open?

Back in gold today look strong. I did not retract as I was expecting.

chompdown

Possibly a big moment as the USD drops below 100.0. Got a screenshot just as it happened Serious weakness today and a lot of dollar bills might be starting to get nervous

ixus

I think USD weakness is in play for a while as Trump appears to wage Trade Wars. It's hard to read how this all plays out. Markets are going to be reactionary to every tweet or soundbite in the near term .

It's all about the noise right now.

ixus

Treasury Sec talks down the dollar.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-23/usd-dumps-after-treasury-sec-nominee-mnuchin-warns-excessively-strong-dollar

For ever odd

Investors appreciate that a strong dollar can impact US growth through the net export component of GDP. The dollar's appreciation can push up the price of exports and lower the cost of imports. The St. Louis Fed took a look at how the strong dollar from 2014 to the beginning of 2016 impacted the net export function of GDP.

It is clear that a strong dollar in this period was associated with a drag on growth from net exports. Of the two-year period, the St. Louis Fed reviewed, trade contributed positively to growth in only one quarter.

The review found that the impact the strongest in the first half of the appreciation period reviewed. In the Q4 14 and Q1 15, net export took 1.14% and 1.65% respectively from GDP growth. As the dollar advance continued, the drag on net exports diminished. In Q4 15, net exports took 0.5% off GDP even though the dollar rose another 10%.

The St. Louis Fed took another step. This Great Graphic that they produced drills into the net export functions components, exports, and imports, to better understand how the rising dollar impact trade. The conclusion is that the dollar's appreciation impacts imports more than exports. The report found that the cumulative impact of imports was to shave GDP by 4.6%, while the cumulative impact of exports was actually slightly positive (0.85%).

The broad trade-weighted dollar index, tracked by the Federal Reserve, rose in seven of the last eight months of 2016.If the relationships do not change, the dollar's appreciation will likely weigh on GDP more through an increase in imports than the decline in exports.

http://www.marctomarket.com/?m=1

Howya chompdown, a little something as to why they are so worried about a strong dollar. Also would be a conflict of the new presidential policy.
Trump, Jellen and other power players are talking down the dollar, how they implement their wishes is where the money is to be made.
Couldn't help but notice that you have 27 positions open. Good to see ya back.

chompdown

Hey lads, yeah the big reversal upwards in the Dollar after Trump's win was a big surprise for me, and that was the inspiration for me to start thinking about getting back in again. He has clearly stated that he wants a weak dollar and his treasury-secretarty-to-be too (as you have both mentioned already). Still everyone was hugely bullish the dollar. It hit a 14 year high. Surely this time I have timed it correctly

Yeah, I have 27 positions open because I didn't buy all at once. It was the same approach as before... Buying little bits every day to get an average price.

I have an extra €800 left to add to the account and that is it. So my position sizes won't be getting much larger from here. Reading back on the thread, I was in way too deep. Even at the peak (€5,000) my margin level was less than 1000%, and now even with some strength back in the dollar this morning it is at 1500%.

Hopefully this can turn into a long term thread!

chompdown

After the strength in the stock market yesterday my guy closed his positions in gold. If they are managed markets and there's no real chance of them dropping significantly, other markets like gold will suffer.

I had just (an hour earlier) rolled my gold positions from Feb into April and was wary of getting hit with the spread again if I sold, so I decided to stay in. More weakness today but nice to see the Dollar still struggling around 100.0

My balance has dropped below €4k.

chompdown

Ok so it would have been a wise move to sell and buy back in as was advised but its easy to say that in hindsight. I'm not good or disciplined enough to buy and sell the little wiggles like that.

That said, the plan over the next week or so is to gradually reduce the gold position to 0 (or sooner if it gets to $1240) as a more significant fall is anticipated.

There should be about 8-10 days of price falls (hopefully after I have fully closed the position!) and then I will buy in again at oversold levels.

My balance is comfortably back above €4k.

I realise I sound very amateurish, and that is because I am!

BrokenArrows

chompdown wrote: »

Ok so it would have been a wise move to sell and buy back in as was advised but its easy to say that in hindsight. I'm not good or disciplined enough to buy and sell the little wiggles like that.

That said, the plan over the next week or so is to gradually reduce the gold position to 0 (or sooner if it gets to $1240) as a more significant fall is anticipated.

There should be about 8-10 days of price falls (hopefully after I have fully closed the position!) and then I will buy in again at oversold levels.

My balance is comfortably back above €4k.

I realise I sound very amateurish, and that is because I am!

Whats your reason to believe a bigger fall is ahead for gold?

chompdown

I do what I'm told but the reasoning behind it is based on cycles. I bought close to the current cycle low and the cycle should be coming to an end soon so gold and the euro are expected to drop over the course of about 5 to 8 days.

I'll be then buying back in for the next leg up.

I have been gradually trimming my gold position today. Now at 22 points from 36. Nice to bank some profits at these levels. I'll probably drop it down to about 10 points before the jobs report. Good to keep some exposure just in case I am completely wrong.

For ever odd

Have you done much research into 'cycles' for yourself? I mean, it's all well and good following a guy, but by now you must have some jist as to how and why he does what he does with his model.

It's a fairly common trait, that trader's are leaders rather than followers .

chompdown

Hey odd, yeah I can follow it for sure. It's not rocket science to be fair. It's mainly cycles and sentiment with technical analysis not the most important to his decision making.

I am fairly convinced that gold is in the early stages of a bull market so as long as I can keep disciplined, not go over leveraged and sit tight I think I will make quite a lot of money over the next few years.

chompdown

So far so good! I think I am happy to stay at these lower levels now and wait for a pullback before getting back in with full stakes. It may be a week or so until Gold and the Euro reach oversold levels again.

Nice to have the balance above 5k and a healthy margin level.

Taking profits in the earlier stages of this thread was something you guys advised but I didn't do. Hopefully I have learned from those mistakes. Cutting losses is also something I will need to learn at some point and that challenge will certainly come.

For ever odd

Of the 25 trading days this year gold has only had 4 daily closes below its weekly pivot point. The dollar has had only 1 daily close above it's weekly pivot point (only just, on the first trading day of the year ).

No harm in keeping an eye on the old pivots.

chompdown

Yes absolutely. It was a horrible month for the dollar. I think the worst January in nearly 30 years. The trend has to be down from here long term I think but potential for a little dead cat bounce this week maybe.

chompdown

Real nice strength in Gold today despite the strength in the Dollar. I have been closing mt position bit by bit on the way to 1240 which should be pretty strong resistence.

It remains to be seen if the drop last week was just a half cycle wiggle or if it actually was the drop that I am expecting in the near future. Obviously I am hoping for the former

Everybody on the goldbug forums is super confident and that has got to be a good sign to take a step back also.

Currently 3 points long Gold (from 36 points) and 0.1 points short the dollar (from 0.5 points)

chompdown

Crunch time coming up for the gold trade. I sold my last 3 points today just before 1240 which should be strong resistance. This move in gold has been very strong so it remains to be seen if the prediction will be proven correct. It's overbought at these levels and I want to buy when it's oversold.

I'm back in the Dollar with my original 0.5 points short but with an average price higher by nearly 1 dollar

Just looking for that drop in Gold now and I will be very happy.

BrokenArrows

chompdown wrote: »

Crunch time coming up for the gold trade. I sold my last 3 points today just before 1240 which should be strong resistance. This move in gold has been very strong so it remains to be seen if the prediction will be proven correct. It's overbought at these levels and I want to buy when it's oversold.

I'm back in the Dollar with my original 0.5 points short but with an average price higher by nearly 1 dollar

Just looking for that drop in Gold now and I will be very happy.

Seems to have burst though 1240 without any hesitation. 1242 now.
Lots on unease around the world. Might see 1250 soon.

Now that ive posted this its guaranteed to pull back. You can thank me later chompdown. Haha.

chompdown

Cheers bud, I will take any help you can provide!

It powered through 1240 alright but I'm not gonna panic and buy it. It will pull back at some point but it is becoming increasingly clear that the bear market in gold is over.

chompdown

BrokenArrows wrote: »

Seems to have burst though 1240 without any hesitation. 1242 now.
Lots on unease around the world. Might see 1250 soon.

Now that ive posted this its guaranteed to pull back. You can thank me later chompdown. Haha.

I should thank you now Gold didnt manage to break 1245 after reaching just shy of it yesterday and today. Then Trump came in to put an end to the daily cycle just in time.

Gold is already down to 1227 and I'm buying back in gradually over the next 3-4 trading days. I will accelerate my buys when a certain target is reached

Those who bought the breakout above 1240 are holding the bag now.

I feel I am getting better at this, but wary that confidence is a dangerous thing in this game!

iainBB

chompdown wrote: »

I should thank you now Gold didnt manage to break 1245 after reaching just shy of it yesterday and today. Then Trump came in to put an end to the daily cycle just in time.

Gold is already down to 1227 and I'm buying back in gradually over the next 3-4 trading days. I will accelerate my buys when a certain target is reached

Those who bought the breakout above 1240 are holding the bag now.

I feel I am getting better at this, but wary that confidence is a dangerous thing in this game!

I shorted gold yesterday after the yen made its move, this could be a short term correction in gold now before a big move up keep a close on the yen dollar pair and the DX futures. May have to close my short position quickly.

dasdog

Nice to see this thread resurrected and good to see you dialled back your margin risk chomp. From what I see it looks like confusion is prevailing (at least in fx) and how the collective tries to interpret the US president. In other words, its like playing roulette at the moment but good luck.

chompdown

dasdog wrote: »

Nice to see this thread resurrected and good to see you dialled back your margin risk chomp. From what I see it looks like confusion is prevailing (at least in fx) and how the collective tries to interpret the US president. In other words, its like playing roulette at the moment but good luck.

I think you have nailed it with this post. It's very choppy out there and the dip that was expected was very short lived. That leads to an awkward situation where an amateur trader needs to choose whether to buy back in now and forget about getting in lower, or to trust their original judgement and stay patient waiting for it to get to oversold levels.

The lesson I am taking from this week is never to be fully out. It's fine to take profits when I feel the high of the current cycle is in but I won't sell all positions on these occasions where a short term cycle dip is expected. It's not worth the risk, and is almost impossible to time.

So what I should have done and plan to do in future is take profits on half the stakes on these daily cycles.

My current position is as follows:

Short USD 0.6 @ 100.457 (was 0.5 @ 99.896)
Long Gold 17 @ 1230.3 (was 36 @ 1222.2)

So it's looking like I would have been better off doing nothing unless we get a couple of down days in gold Monday and Tuesday. This is doubtful as the 5 day RSI on the dollar has just touched overbought and it won't stay there for long. I was hoping to make my re-entry into gold when the 5 day RSI in the mining stocks (GDX) reached oversold. Lets see if it gets there!

My balance is €4,937.

For ever odd

Chompdown on the "What will I do" questions, I would recommend the following

Close out your positions and take a break for a few days, you have got to yourself back to your €5000 target that you achieved last summer.

Use this time to write out a trading plan (as previously suggested), and backtesting it. For example if you are going to use a 5 day rsi, test it on the time frame you Intend to use and don't curve fit it on different time frames, see how well this fits in with your cycle strategy.

Re read the thread again and identify when you were over confident and when you were unsure, this cycle will keep repeating until you develop that trading plan you can trust.

Go back through your guru's emails and backtest his ups and downs. Unless he is fully automated (which he is not by the sounds of it), he will have his own cycle.

If you intend to stay at this long term these are some of things you will have to do to survive. You will, at some stage have to put in the hard yards by yourself.


Well done on getting back to the 5k target.


Enjoy.

chompdown

Yes, all very sound advice and that makes sense but I could do all the tests under the sun with a demo account or just tracking the numbers, but this won't test my biggest problem in the past - i.e. wrestling with a loss, or realising when to take profits.
After the account blow up earlier in the year I was delighted that there was no panic with extra deposits. It will be the same this time if everything goes pear shaped. The changes I've made with the expereince from that is smaller positions, and less positions. Silver and oil were far to volatile so I am trying to avoid them
My first post was about 7 months ago and I feel I have learned something along the way, and actually made a little bit of profit too. If gold is infact back in a bear market I should make a decent amount here if I can stay in the game

For ever odd

It's all there. A few simple rules written down, and their is your trade plan.

Sticking to the rules of the trade plan - are the hard yards you have to do by yourself. Genuinely would help if I could but only you can sort it out.

chompdown

Yes, good point. I will revisit the rules I set at the very start and update them with what I have learned. Cheers!

drunkmonkey

Is there a strategy that gives the best odds time after time? I'm kinda with chomp, case in point Oil. I don't care what strategy you have but if your dealing with stop losses it's a crystal ball trade.

Mrs Monkey was in the car with me the other day and said I was to stop gambling and go get an economics degree. I said it wouldn't improve my odds in the slightest for short plays.
So I set out my strategy for the day to her, based on my logic.
Gold had gone down so I assumed that would help Tiffany & Co, not sure if it did but the shares lifted within 24hrs.
I applied the same logic to Tesla at the same time as lithium was down, and low and behold Tesla went up.

I've no idea what way those 2 businesses buy their raw material, but if it was on spot, the hairbrained logic was proven correct and I clawed back my losses on Oil from the morning.

chompdown

I took some time yesterday to come up with stakes that I should follow during the shorter term cycles.

Minimum levels. - this is the level I can reduce my stakes to during a short term cycle decline (like what I expect to be happening now). As a general rule I start to lower my stakes when the 5 day RSI on the daily chart goes overbought/oversold.

20 long Gold (when overbought)
0.3 short the dollar (when oversold)

Standard levels - this is the default position size, when I am not trying to be smart and time tops and bottoms.

40 long gold
0.6 short the dollar

Absolute max - if I have gone from my minimum level stakes to standard level stakes and gold goes even further oversold (or USD overbought) these are the absolute maximums I can expose myself to. Price averaging can be very tempting but it can be very dangerous to keep adding to losing positions.

50 long gold
0.8 short the dollar


I sold out of my stake in Gold last week as I was expecting a short term cycle low to occur late last week, early next week. From now on I will never be fully out during these shorter term cycle declines, as the longer term cycle is still rising.

The only time I will be fully out of my positions is when the longer term cycle decline is expected (if I remember right the next one should be around March). As a general rule, the time to start reducing is when the slow stochastics reach overbought on the weekly chart.

So, with all that said, I now need to get my gold long position up to 20 points on Monday.

The "noise" from the Fed speakers destroyed me on the first leg of this adventure so I am happy to wait until after Wednesday to get back to standard levels in my Gold position. Yellen is giving testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday.

These the rules to help me with a structured stake plan; I am still following the timing of the "guru" in terms of when to buy and sell.

ixus

If you have "efficient markets" or algos doing there work, these things should be priced in much quicker than 24hrs. Devil's advocate. Did the commodities keep moving?

For ever odd

The last 20 times 5 day RSI crossed:

Oversold/overbought

Max number of days is=
Min number of days is=
Average number of days =

Max price movement =
Min price movement=
Average price movent=

It's not much, but it's a start, keep working on it.

My last 20 trades....

For ever odd

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Is there a strategy that gives the best odds time after time? I'm kinda with chomp, case in point Oil. I don't care what strategy you have but if your dealing with stop losses it's a crystal ball trade.

Mrs Monkey was in the car with me the other day and said I was to stop gambling and go get an economics degree. I said it wouldn't improve my odds in the slightest for short plays.
So I set out my strategy for the day to her, based on my logic.
Gold had gone down so I assumed that would help Tiffany & Co, not sure if it did but the shares lifted within 24hrs.
I applied the same logic to Tesla at the same time as lithium was down, and low and behold Tesla went up.

I've no idea what way those 2 businesses buy their raw material, but if it was on spot, the hairbrained logic was proven correct and I clawed back my losses on Oil from the morning.

Dave McWilliams was on the ray D'Arcy show last night plugging http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/teaching/economics-without-boundaries
Maybe something to appease the good lady.

chompdown

ixus wrote: »

Did the commodities keep moving?

Sorry, I'm not following what you mean?

chompdown

Thanks odd, I understand about backtesting and everything but I'm not sure that you realise that I have pretty much outsourced my decision about when to buy and sell, and I'm trying to find the right stakes to have at those points.

There's a full history of trades so that's not where the problem is for me, it's trying to find the right balance of margin to use. i.e. I want to make a decent amount of money but also ensure that the envivitable big drops don't wipe me out

I am using spread betting while the others are using gld, gdx, gdxj, jnug and nugt.

I get the sense that most on here find it strange that I am just following someone else's advice!

ixus

chompdown wrote: »

Sorry, I'm not following what you mean?

Meant for drunkmonkey.

ixus

chompdown wrote: »

....
I get the sense that most on here find it strange that I am just following someone else's advice!

Yes because it was highlighted as a concern at the beginning and wiped you out. The trade that went against you hardest was called here, a big dollar move.

When you wiped out, I suggested you take some time, read over this thread and learn from everything you have done, right and wrong.

While I haven't been following closely, it would appear you are simply back to following some guy while trying to adjust your risk parameters. Is that accurate?

For ever odd

chompdown wrote: »

Thanks odd, I understand about backtesting and everything but I'm not sure that you realise that I have pretty much outsourced my decision about when to buy and sell, and I'm trying to find the right stakes to have at those points.

There's a full history of trades so that's not where the problem is for me, it's trying to find the right balance of margin to use. i.e. I want to make a decent amount of money but also ensure that the envivitable big drops don't wipe me out

I am using spread betting while the others are using gld, gdx, gdxj, jnug and nugt.

I get the sense that most on here find it strange that I am just following someone else's advice!

No worries.

There are, I suspect, other amateurs reading this thread. Maybe there is some interested in putting in the work.

chompdown

ixus wrote: »

Yes because it was highlighted as a concern at the beginning and wiped you out. The trade that went against you hardest was called here, a big dollar move.

When you wiped out, I suggested you take some time, read over this thread and learn from everything you have done, right and wrong.

While I haven't been following closely, it would appear you are simply back to following some guy while trying to adjust your risk parameters. Is that accurate?

That's accurate!

I think most people here were more concerned with the high level of leverage and I have dialled that back a good bit. Yes, I think you called the Dollar trade correctly, and I was wrong there for sure. I did get in at the bottom in oil almost perfectly but then lost the plot by increasing the position size and then over trading.

In this leg two I'm concentrating on improving the position sizes and when to take profits.

chompdown

End of week update
Position 1: Long Gold 17€ @ 1230.3
Position 2: Short USD (Sept) 0.6€ @ 100.457

Current balance: €4937
Total deposits: €4685

Total P/L: €252 / 5.3%

Timothy Bryce

I’ve been following your thread for quite a while now Chompdown, and I feel compelled to respond on the back of the comments from Ixus regarding following your guru.

I was where you are a couple of years ago, I’d put a good chunk of savings into a spread-betting account, went to a couple of talks where I met a couple of people peddling their strategy, one of which I liked the look of and decided to subscribe to it. Previous to this, I knew very little and was trying to find an easy way to make money in the markets, I lost a lot more than I won, my risk was all the place and ultimately I had no idea what I was doing.

My guru would send me daily emails with levels for entry & exit and sporadic emails throughout the day, when he decided to take profit early, run trades further or move his stop loss etc. This worked pretty well and I made some money out of it, but a lot of his calls were completely counter trend and somehow made money selling in a rising market. However, one day I was literally carried out on a stretcher, utterly rinsed when a trade went badly against me, guru said to hold it (it was just an algo paying up the book, squeezing the short sellers apparently) which I did, then 20 mins later he emailed saying he’d exited at a much more favourable price than what was currently on offer. I lost 60% of my account in one trade, another friend of mine who was following the same strategy received a margin call from his broker. It feels somewhat similar to you being short the USD when it’s been trending up recently. Not saying you’re wrong or anything, I’m just mentioning it as it’s resonating strongly with me.

I took a break on the back of this loss and started to put in the hard yards in regard to getting a deep understanding of the products I was trading and what moved them. I sat in front of charts for weeks on end looking at how the price moved. I read books. A lot of books.

There’s plenty of books out there regarding ‘value’ and market profile which I’d encourage you to read; they’ll give you an idea of how to look out for points which the market deems ‘fair value’ and will also give you potential entry/exit points for your trades based on previous price action. Read a bit about the indicators you're using, like RSI; something being overbought doesn’t mean it’s ripe to go straight down; the US markets are ridiculously overbought at the moment, and you wouldn’t catch many people selling them for love nor money (in my opinion anyway).

I think you’ve experienced a lot of the hard lessons the markets will teach you, I just don’t know if you’ve learned anything from them. A lot of the tips in this thread have clearly come from experienced traders who I'm guessing learned them the hard way. Take them on board and digest them. I remember hearing similar advice which I paid zero heed to; I was more interested in making money on the back of someone who was going to do the hard work for me.

I asked myself some hard questions a number of years ago; did I want to follow a guru leaving me with little or no knowledge of why I’m taking a certain trade, or do I want to put in the work and figure it out for myself. I’m by no means the finished article, but I’ve found a way to trade that works for me.

Keep this thread going as best you can, it’s a brilliant read. All the best.

chompdown

Thanks Timothy for taking the time to put together that fantastic post. Your reasoning is sound and it was good to hear about your journey which mirrors mine is some ways

Fair play for deciding to put the hard work in, learning for yourself and putting together a trading strategy of your own. That is certainly a good way to do it, but surely it is not the only way. For instance, if you had a bad experience with a cowboy builder would you go out and learn about how to do your own construction work, or would you try to find a better builder? I am not denying that knowledge of what you are doing is super important, but there's also a lot to be said for specialisation.

One of the posters earlier mentioned he was advised to go back and study Economics by his wife. I am a firm beliver in the laws of comparative advantage and specialisation, so I believe my time is best spent on what I do best (the day job, not trading!) and then enlisting the services of someone who I believe I can trust, and has had proven success, to look after the speculation. I don't think I could ever get to a level where I am the 1-in-10 trader that makes money, no matter how much work I put in.

I have tried to be flippant about the investor I am following as the mods thought I might have been fishing for subscriptions (which is totally understandable), but the fact is that he has had documented success and I do trust him. I know that there are a lot of snakes out there. He is not famous and not a day trader - I absolutely would not have the stomach for that

While I am a long, long way from being rich, I can afford to lose the funds I have deposited and will try to learn something from when the balance inevitably goes to zero. This is not life savings territory. I just hope I can stay alive for a long time and get some good entertainment value for my money!

A little update on my re-entry in Gold... I bought 10 points today with an average of 1224.5 and now hold 27 (targetting 40). I don't think this selloff is done yet so keeping the other 13 points for the rest of the week. Yellen tomorrow!

chompdown

In terms of the dollar you can see that the 5 day RSI is now in overbought territory. In hindsight, I closed my shorts just at the right time, but I didn't (or couldn't) wait until we got back into overbought on this short term cycle. Ideally I would have had the discipline to wait and be getting back in today, but I am smart enough to realise I will never time things perfectly. However, I am confident that the dollar will be at a lower level at the end the week!

Gold and GDX have not yet reached oversold and maybe they won't. I'm happy enough with 27 points long if it does indeed shoot up without getting down there but also happy to add more if it does

chompdown

Just a very quick post to update that I have now repositioned into Gold as well as the Dollar after the same old predictable comments from Yellen. One of my stink bids in the dollar got executed.

Currently looking like this:

Long Gold 37 points @ 1227.2
Short USD 0.7 points @ 100.554

After all the mincing about I have slightly better overall priced positions. A difference of just over 100 euro. Beggars can't be choosers!

Let's see if I have timed this short term bottom correctly

iainBB

chompdown wrote: »

Just a very quick post to update that I have now repositioned into Gold as well as the Dollar after the same old predictable comments from Yellen. One of my stink bids in the dollar got executed.

Currently looking like this:

Long Gold 37 points @ 1227.2
Short USD 0.7 points @ 100.554

After all the mincing about I have slightly better overall priced positions. A difference of just over 100 euro. Beggars can't be choosers!

Let's see if I have timed this short term bottom correctly

I am sure it's been a asked already, but with a dollar and gold so well connected would it not be better to to look at another diversification stock.. .

chompdown

this has been brought up before alright. This little experiment is basically all about trying to time the top in the dollar and the bottom of the long term bear market in gold. I got a bit side tracked with oil earlier but I expect that these two markets will be the bread and butter for me until I get wiped out. I understand that they are basically the same bets.

iainBB

Cheers, I love the optimism " until I get wiped out"