Olympic Road Race - 6th August 2016 Rio

MPFGLB

Thought I'd start a thread on this as Ireland has one of the favourites for the RR (will add TT nearer the time) I know Ireland has only 2 riders but both are strong and the max team size is 5 so controling such a long hard race will be very difficult for any country though Spain & Colombia are very strong as is the Netherlands & GB

So with pave, steep climbs technical descents and a flat finish this is a very diffcult long course with some thing for everyone and does favour a classics rouler who can climb imo

Length - 256.4 km




Start List : http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=170667&c=3
Race starts at 1.30 pm Irish time. Finish estimated at 8.15pm Irish time

So the questions are
Will there be a bunch sprint at the end ?
Will one rider make the break on the climb or on the descent and do a solo win?
Will a reduced group (3/4/5 riders) fight it out at the end

And then there is the prediction-
So who will win the medals ??

godtabh

Are the Irish one of the favourites?

Darkglasses

godtabh wrote: »

Are the Irish one of the favourites?

Dan is around 5th favourite at 14/1. Very open race of course

MPFGLB

godtabh wrote: »

Are the Irish one of the favourites?

Well given Dan Martin loves a long hard race, can climb , has won LBL and has a fast finish he has to be right up there. Of course Valverde, Purito, Nibali, Froome are among the favourites too but for me Martin is a good bet ...

remember there are very few doms (if aby) in this race as most teams are just 4 strong riders ...so it wil be a race of attriction and the harder it is the better for Ireland

pelevin

At a superficial stab at things, Dan & Valverde seem to stand out - climbers with real sprints in them. Perhaps someone like Kwiatkowski also? - though hopefully it'll be excitingly open with many in the mix. Thank goodness it's not at all a sprinters' kind of course like apparently the Worlds is this year. A joke imo that the Worlds should ever be probable to finish in a bunch sprint with little in the way of selections of the best made.

retalivity

25k descent and flat finish? A sprinter tgat can climb relatively well.

MPFGLB

retalivity wrote: »

25k descent and flat finish? A sprinter tgat can climb relatively well.

BY all accounts the climbs are very hard...too hard for a sprinter, even one that can climb like say Matthews or EBH...Sagan has already said its to hard for him
...so its a climber who can sprint or get way on the climb/descent

harringtonp

One of the French, Bardet or alaphilippe

neris

Why have we only 2 riders racing? Is this the same bull**** as the worlds?

Super sub steve cummings as a sneaky outsider for the road and froome for the tt, rumours dumoulin will go and tt but if hes injured cant see him doing aswell as the 2 tdf tt,s

godtabh

neris wrote: »

Why have we only 2 riders racing? Is this the same bull**** as the worlds?

Super sub steve cummings as a sneaky outsider for the road and froome for the tt, rumours dumoulin will go and tt but if hes injured cant see him doing aswell as the 2 tdf tt,s

Dumoulin is on the bike again. Posted a video while riding saying his arm is stiff but his is training. Will be wearing a special split for the races I think

odyssey06

What time would this be expected to finish at Irish Time?
630-7?

Pudsy33

With the 20km of flat after the final climb, I can't see any of the pure climbers winning it. Similarly I don't think there will be any sprinters left after the three big climbs at the end. So my money is on someone like Valverde, Martin, Alaphilipe, or maybe someone like Albasini or Poels.

Chips Lovell

Philippe Gilbert is showing some signs of life.

Taxuser1

Tom Dumoulin pulled out of his first race back, a criterium, after an hour last night. He cited his lack of bottle and thought it too soon to have made a come back.

Separately, why is Valverde going to the Olympics and Zakarin is not ?

Taxuser1

the Vista Chinesa climb looks decent, a proper back breaker

https://www.strava.com/segments/774534

death1234567

Taxuser1 wrote: »

Separately, why is Valverde going to the Olympics and Zakarin is not ?

Zakarin is Russian and Valverde isn't.

Taxuser1

http://www.cyclingstage.com/olympics-2016/route-road-race-rio-2016/

i'd the wrong profile up. it would appear that the descent is quite hairy as well

the small circuit with the climb featuring three times in the final two hours of racing all but rules out the puncheurs, in my opinion.

Taxuser1

Part 1

https://www.strava.com/activities/370494291/segments/8919715436

Part 2

https://www.strava.com/activities/370494291/segments/8933969843

The Descent

https://www.strava.com/activities/370494291/segments/8851440346

Macy0161

pelevin wrote: »

Thank goodness it's not at all a sprinters' kind of course like apparently the Worlds is this year. A joke imo that the Worlds should ever be probable to finish in a bunch sprint with little in the way of selections of the best made.

I don't mind them mixing it up a bit. I think this years worlds will depend on the wind too. Flat doesn't necessarily mean sprinter, as we saw in the Tour. And actually the last Olympics was supposed to be a sprinters course, with Box Hill not hard enough, and it didn't work out that way!

Taxuser1

not forgetting last year's test race which featured the climb but only over 165km

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/news-shorts-vuillermoz-wins-rio-olympics-test-event/

pelevin

Macy0161 wrote: »

I don't mind them mixing it up a bit. I think this years worlds will depend on the wind too. Flat doesn't necessarily mean sprinter, as we saw in the Tour. And actually the last Olympics was supposed to be a sprinters course, with Box Hill not hard enough, and it didn't work out that way!

But for me the hardness of Box Hill was what made the race, though in truth it wasn't a great race, though if memory serves the likes of Boonen tried to enliven it. The peloton as a combined unit on flat courses far outweighs the strengths of imo the 'best' riders - like Cancellara, Sagan, etc - and for me I don't think that makes for a meaningful Worlds champion. If there's little in the way of selections made except in the final sprint then there's been no siphoning down towards the elites. The negation of the strongest riders' strengths by a flat course in which tune in for the last 10 minutes more or less means you won't have missed anything. Hopefully though like you mention the wind will be enough to shake things up.

Pudsy33

Taxuser1 wrote: »

http://www.cyclingstage.com/olympics-2016/route-road-race-rio-2016/

i'd the wrong profile up. it would appear that the descent is quite hairy as well

the small circuit with the climb featuring three times in the final two hours of racing all but rules out the puncheurs, in my opinion.

One for the pure climbers you reckon? This Martin can make it up? The like of Matthews and Gilbert are in trouble.

neris

pelevin wrote: »

A joke imo that the Worlds should ever be probable to finish in a bunch sprint with little in the way of selections of the best made.

A joke imo that the worlds is in a country where most of the locals wouldnt know a bike & rider if their camel hit it in the middle of a sand dune but thats a debate for another thread

Taxuser1

Pudsy33 wrote: »

One for the pure climbers you reckon? This Martin can make it up? The like of Matthews and Gilbert are in trouble.

Matthews didn't make the squad so Porte must be captain
I think it's the Tour climbers who'll go well and throw in Rui Costa and Nibali.
Dan has a great chance. If only he could TT because a strong rider could win this in the final kms by jumping clear.

Dodge

neris wrote: »

Why have we only 2 riders racing? Is this the same bull**** as the worlds?

Olympic qualification is based on results in the World Tour, and the rest of the UCI calendar. If we had've finished in the top 15 as a nation we'd have got 3 (and a chance to add one more through the UCI Europe tour). The US only have 2 as well

The usual suspects of Dan, Valverde, Rui Costa, Nibali and Alaphilippe should be there. Others that can climb if they get in the right break include Fuglsang, Zakarin, Konig and the Colombians of course

REBELSAFC

I wouldn't rule out Sagan no matter what he says. There is 20km of flat after the final climb so if he can hang in there he has a super chance. He was very impressive in the Alps at the Tour

Taxuser1

REBELSAFC wrote: »

I wouldn't rule out Sagan no matter what he says. There is 20km of flat after the final climb so if he can hang in there he has a super chance. He was very impressive in the Alps at the Tour

He wasn't selected and will only ride the mountain bike race

harringtonp

Taxuser1 wrote: »

He wasn't selected and will only ride the mountain bike race

Anybody know when that is on ?

Dodge

harringtonp wrote: »

Anybody know when that is on ?

Sunday 21st. Last day of the Olympics (one of the very last medals to be awarded)

REBELSAFC

Taxuser1 wrote: »

He wasn't selected and will only ride the mountain bike race

Well that rules him out so I suppose :rolleyes:

Pudsy33

REBELSAFC wrote: »

Well that rules him out so I suppose :rolleyes:

To be fair, if anyone can win a race he's not entered in its probably gonna be Peter Sagan.