Olympic Road Race - 6th August 2016 Rio

Dodge

Oymyakon wrote: »

Maybe they're giving enough time to bring over backup riders for the TT

They only had one spot in the ITT anyway. They announced Uran for that. Henao was his back up. They can't bring anyone else in now AFAIK

Odd one.

pelevin

MPFGLB wrote: »

I wasn't suggesting Nibali would win in a sprint ...He can go away on the climb , extend on the descent and hold them off
Last year at Lombardia he did a great job at that

I didn't think you were suggesting Nibali win in a sprint, I was just saying it looked like it'd have to be a really great ride to win solo-ish given the length of the flat section at the end. Something like I suppose as you say Lombardia last year.

edit: I just see Gilbert tipping Nibali as his favourite so he obviously thinks it's suitably hard to favour the likes of him over say a small bunch finish.

D9Male

This is the official profile. It is a bit shorter than the original post, as the route has been modified a few times.

I believe it is a 6km descent (very fast, not too technical) followed by 11km of flat.

The course looks very hard. I think guys like GVA and Alaphilippe will find it too hard.

dastardly00

I wonder what the breakaway will look like after the 4 laps of the Grumari circuit. Those climbs are fairly short (albeit steep) so I don't think any of the 'semi-decent' riders will be in the breakaway by then.

The first lap of the Vista Chinesa circuit should be exciting though. It'd be great if riders like Cummings, Pauwels, Pantano, Izagirre, Teklehaimanot, Costa and Majka all attacked That would really put the cat among the pigeons.

MPFGLB

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dastardly00 wrote: »

I wonder what the breakaway will look like after the 4 laps of the Grumari circuit. Those climbs are fairly short (albeit steep) so I don't think any of the 'semi-decent' riders will be in the breakaway by then.

The first lap of the Vista Chinesa circuit should be exciting though. It'd be great if riders like Cummings, Pauwels, Pantano, Izagirre, Teklehaimanot, Costa and Majka all attacked That would really put the cat among the pigeons.

They will ...there is no choice for the bigger teams ...get someone up the road and let their leaders sit back ...only hope for th Irish is that one or more of Spain/Italy /Brits /Dutch/Colombians miss the break

D9Male

I think you will find a weak enough break in the first 150km. I don't think those early circuits will be ridden hard, and you will probably see riders from countries like Japan, Laos, Kosovo, Algeria, Morocco in this.

I don't think any of the major countries are going to want to burn their matches early, so this break will get a decent lead.

The likelihood is that there will be some form of attack from middle-ranked riders at some stage. Maybe last time on the Grumari circuit or first time on the final circuit. This is the key to he race. Britain will want to get Thomas/Cummings, Czech Republic might get Vakoc/Barta, and maybe riders like Roche, Kangert, Nordhaug, Spilak could spice it up..

As MPFGLB says, teams with no-one up the road will chase. If the group is strong enough, maybe it doesn't come back together. If the chasers get to them, this is where Martin, Valverde, Nibali will hope they can make a difference on the final climb.

I think the race will be chaotic. Riders will be (successfully) attacking one another in the final flat section and riders will be finishing in groups of 1-5. It is such a hard course to ride with small teams.

Zzippy

Sagan for me. The Vista Chinesa climb is no Alp, doesn't look steep enough or long enough to burn off the power riders, and the descent and flat run-in doesn't suit the climbers. Dan's best chance is if he is coming to the finish in a small group and gets a jump, like Lombardia 2014.

Chips Lovell

I wouldn't put it past him to win it on a mountain bike.

CrowdedHouse

He's not in it

dastardly00

Zzippy wrote: »

Sagan for me. The Vista Chinesa climb is no Alp, doesn't look steep enough or long enough to burn off the power riders, and the descent and flat run-in doesn't suit the climbers.

Sorry Zzippy... couldn't resist...

Melodeon

Zzippy wrote: »

Sagan for me. The Vista Chinesa climb is no Alp...

He'll be able to take sneaky shortcuts:

Zzippy

Well that'll learn me to reread a thread in full before posting in it again!

D9Male

Sagan doesn't ride in this race as the course is too tough for him to compete. A climber with pedigree in one-day races is where we should be looking. DAN

griffin100

I'd fancy Steve Cummings as an outside chance in the road race, but it depends on whether or not the team have been told to ride for Froome and whether he'd be allowed make a break.

Lusk_Doyle

I'd watch the Polish on this one. The way they belted up the climbs each time with Majka and the others doing the damage for the flower guy to rip away on the descent in the worlds the year before last was a sight to behold. The same could easily happen here on this course.

Me being in Poland for the race will have me cheering them if our lads can't do anything.

Lusk_Doyle

griffin100 wrote: »

I'd fancy Steve Cummings as an outside chance in the road race, but it depends on whether or not the team have been told to ride for Froome and whether he'd be allowed make a break.

Cummings would hardly ride for Froome these days would he?

Pudsy33

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

I'd watch the Polish on this one. The way they belted up the climbs each time with Majka and the others doing the damage for the flower guy to rip away on the descent in the worlds the year before last was a sight to behold. The same could easily happen here on this course.

Me being in Poland for the race will have me cheering them if our lads can't do anything.

If Kwiatkowski had any sort of form this course would suit him to the ground. But sky destroyed him

godtabh

griffin100 wrote: »

I'd fancy Steve Cummings as an outside chance in the road race, but it depends on whether or not the team have been told to ride for Froome and whether he'd be allowed make a break.

If the Irish werent involved I'd go with Cummings as well. Because the British wont be able to control the race like at Sky I think Cummings will look for a late break to work with.

I think Froome will do better in the TT

D9Male

I have a sneaky feeling that Thomas might be the guy for the British.

MPFGLB

D9Male wrote: »

I have a sneaky feeling that Thomas might be the guy for the British.

I am not sure Froome sees it that way ...

D9Male

Neither am I. Thomas has ridden for Froome on multiple occasions recently.And Froome has been known to ride for teammates.

I think the British team would be foolish to ride for Froome. He has no pedigree in one-day races. Thomas does.

Quigs Snr

I dont want to get carried away lads, but I definitely think Ireland will win Gold, Silver and Bronze in the road race.

drogdub

Quigs Snr wrote: »

I dont want to get carried away lads, but I definitely think Ireland will win Gold, Silver and Bronze in the road race.

And fourth (in a red jersey though)

Quigs Snr

Someone PM'd me to let me know that we only have two competitors which makes a clean sweep of the podium impossible, but they are forgetting that its in Brazil and away goals count double.

Oymyakon

I don't think there will be many who will want to let Cummings go up the road, might be difficult for him to get into a breakaway

pelevin

Re Thomas or Froome, I don't think Thomas has shown particularly great form for a good while, & while Froome hasn't done anything in one day races, he clearly has had very good form & seems to have expanded as a rider in willingness to attack outside of his norm. I'd imagine he'd be more likely than Thomas to be a real threat.

The Dutch have some strong options with Mollema & Poels, also Kruiswijk though dunno about his form, & also the wrist injury might dampen Dumoulin's contribution. If they were going well though that's a strong little group.

SwissToni

Where's the best place to get a list of the odds?

Pudsy33

https://m.oddschecker.com/m/olympics/cycling/mens/mens-road-race/winner

Eponymous

Who is showing this tomorrow? Will Eurosport have it or BBC?

JK.BMC

My 3 picks:

Rui Costa (he can read the local roads signs 😀)
M Albasini (he can climb and definitely sprint)
Dan Martin (he is as good or better than the above 2)

This is building to be a fascinating race- whatever about the climbs, the final 20km will be very interesting, especially with the small teams; a bit more like domestic or local races- basically most people ride for themselves and 'team' goes out the window