August 2016 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Back from much needed holiday, just catching up ...

... Norma L should of course be 100% for PRC and SUN, looks like my fatigued brain somehow transferred the consensus PRC over to Norma L as well. Anyway, will change score there with that error in mind.

... PRC is worth 15 and SUN 10 mostly because PRC is a more difficult call and the error scale is smaller (3% as opposed to 5).

... IMT for all five stations appears to be 15.5(4), JPmarn is correct in saying Shannon was 16.1, the average for all five is 15.5 which I think was my estimate, too tired to check.

... MAX 25.5 and MIN 4.5 as already scored.

... PRC from the MS for eleven stations was 89% of normal.

... SUN from the MS and 30-yr averages for six stations was also 89% of normal.

I think the estimates are all fairly close to the provisional scoring values, so I will check the scoring and post revisions this evening (your time) as well as an annual update.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed scores for August 2016


FORECASTER ________IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__ Max rain, loc'n

Actual values _______ 15.5_25.5_4.5_089_089 __ 57.9 Sherkin ___ TOTAL

Kindred Spirit _______ 22 _ 13 _ 15 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 5 + 3 _______ 79
sryanbruen _________ 24 _ 15 _ 16 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 3 + 3 _______ 76
Dasa29 ____________ 22 _ 15 _ 14 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 2 + 3 _______ 75
Lumi ___ (-2) _______ 21 _ 08 _ 20 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 7 + 3 __ 76-2=74
Sunflower3 _________ 24 _ 10 _ 15 _ 11 _ 09 ___ 1 + 3 _______ 73
Tae laidir ___________ 22 _ 17 _ 09 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 6 + 1 _______ 72
MrSkinner __________ 19 _ 11 _ 13 _ 11 _ 06 ___ 6 + 3 _______ 69
Bsal________________23 _ 15 _ 12 _ 03 _ 08 ___ 6 + 1 _______ 68

Con Sensus _________ 23 _ 10 _ 13 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 3 + 3 _______ 68


john mac ___________ 20 _ 15 _ 06 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 6 + 3 _______ 66
pauldry_____________ 22 _ 18 _ 05 _ 02 _ 08 ___ 7 + 3 _______ 65
mickger844posts _____ 21 _ 15 _ 06 _ 08 _ 07 ___ 2 + 3 _______ 62
DOCARCH ___________23 _ 00 _ 17 _ 08 _ 10 ___ 1 + 3 _______ 62
Rikand ____ (-1) _____ 25 _ 05 _ 10 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 3 + 2 __ 61-1=60
Rameire ____________ 17 _ 11 _ 09 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 3 + 1 _______ 59
Dacogawa ___ (-6) ___ 22 _ 04 _ 14 _ 05 _ 10 ___ 7 + 3 __ 65-6=59
200motels ___________21 _ 08 _ 05 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 4 + 3 _______ 55

Norma L ____________ 21 _ 05 _ 00 _ 11 _ 08 ___ 7 + 3 _______ 55

M.T. Cranium ________ 24 _ 00 _ 00 _ 12 _ 09 ___ 5 + 0 _______ 50
waterways __________ 24 _ 02 _ 00 _ 14 _ 05 ___ 4 + 1 _______ 50
Joe Public ___________ 23 _ 06 _ 00 _ 05 _ 10 ___ 2 + 3 _______ 49
JD________ (-3) _____ 23 _ 00 _ 04 _ 06 _ 09 ___ 5 + 3 __ 50-3=47
Jpmarn _____________ 17 _ 00 _ 03 _ 08 _ 04 ___ 4 + 1 _______ 37

___________________________________________________________

Congrats to Kindred Spirit, sryanbruen and Dasa29 for their top three scores, Lumi, Sunflower and Tae laidir just behind the leaders.

ANNUAL and SUMMER SEASONAL SCORING UPDATES TO FOLLOW

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring update Jan to Aug 2016

This is the last month that the scoring order will be based on total score, in September the rankings will be by best 8 of 9, in October by best 8 of 10 and from then on, similar to end of contest year.


rank _FORECASTER ________Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun _Jul _Aug __ TOTAL ____ best 7 of 8 (rank)



01 Con Sensus ____________ 73 _ 75 _ 77 _ 70 _ 67 _ 57 _ 65 _ 68 ___ 552 _____ 495 (3t)

01 MrSkinner ______________83 _ 66 _ 64 _ 58 _ 73 _ 67 _ 71 _ 69 ___ 551 _____ 493 (4)
02 Lumi __________________71 _ 72 _ 89 _ 59 _ 65 _ 60 _ 57 _ 74 ___ 547 _____ 490 (5)
03 waterways _____________ 75 _ 75 _ 58 _ 66 _ 75 _ 75 _ 72 _ 50 ___ 546 _____ 496 (2)
04 Sunflower3 _____________72 _ 71 _ 81 _ 43 _ 61 _ 63 _ 74 _ 73 ___ 538 _____ 495 (3)
05t Tae laidir ______________86 _ 76 _ 76 _ 46 _ 47 _ 53 _ 57 _ 72 ___ 513 _____ 467 (7)
05t DOCARCH _____________53 _ 62 _ 61 _ 71 _ 71 _ 58 _ 75 _ 62 ___ 513 _____ 460 (8)
07 Rameire _______________ 69 _ 60 _ 70 _ 72 _ 59 _ 63 _ 55 _ 59 ___ 507 _____ 452 (9)


08 Norma L _______________52 _ 65 _ 70 _ 57 _ 71 _ 61 _ 73 _ 55 ___ 504 _____ 452 (9t)

08 Sryanbruen ____________ 27 _ 63 _ 52 _ 76 _ 65 _ 72 _ 70 _ 76 ___ 501 _____ 474 (6)
09 mickger844posts ________78 _ 63 _ 89 _ 68 _ 79 _ 59 _ --- _ 62 ___ 498 _____ 498 (1)
10t Dacogawa ____________ 52 _ 58 _ 89 _ 50 _ 75 _ 47 _ 66 _ 59 ___ 496 _____ 449 (10)
10t Rikand _______________ 67 _ 76 _ 54 _ 54 _ 73 _ 60 _ 52 _ 60 ___ 496 _____ 444 (11)
12 Dasa29 ________________66 _ 58 _ 67 _ 53 _ 56 _ 53 _ 49 _ 75 ___ 477 _____ 428 (17)
13 Bsal __________________ 65 _ 66 _ 66 _ 60 _ 53 _ 45 _ 52 _ 68 ___ 475 _____ 430 (15)
14 M.T. Cranium ___________46 _ 62 _ 78 _ 66 _ 69 _ 45 _ 58 _ 50 ___ 474 _____ 429 (16)
15 JD____________________ 69 _ 77 _ 32 _ 71 _ 61 _ 45 _ 67 _ 47 ___ 469 _____ 437 (13)
16 Pauldry________________ 53 _ 69 _ 45 _ 80 _ 56 _ 45 _ 55 _ 65 ___ 468 _____ 423 (19)
17t Jpmarn _______________ 64 _ 60 _ 47 _ 75 _ 73 _ 51 _ 55 _ 37 ___ 462 _____ 425 (18)
17t 200motels _____________46 _ 68 _ 74 _ 61 _ 70 _ 22 _ 66 _ 55 ___ 462 _____ 440 (12)
19 Joe Public ______________28 _ 63 _ 65 _ 72 _ 63 _ 59 _ 62 _ 49 ___ 461 _____ 433 (14)
20 john mac ______________ 72 _ 57 _ 36 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 50 _ 66 ___ 448 _____ 412 (21)

21 kindredspirit ____________--- _ 35 _ 65 _ 58 _ 61 _ 41 _ 79 _ 79 ___ 418 _____ 418 (20)
22 lostinashford ___________ 69 _ 66 _ 63 _ 78 _ 77 _ 36 _ --- _ --- ___ 389
23 Schadenfreudia _________ 65 _ 72 _ 58 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 260
24 omicron _______________ 76 _ 43 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 191
25 Carnacalla _____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 33 _ --- ___ 105
26 Timmyboy ______________--- _ 53 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- ____ 53
27 Elmer Blooker ___________--- _ --- _ 51 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ____ 51
______________________________________________________________

The total score (MTC Award) portion of the contest remains close at the top but Con Sensus has slipped back into the lead, MrSkinner is currently the high score with Lumi, Waterways and Sunflower3 close to the lead.

In the developing main contest (Boards Award) it appears that ranks one through five (Mickger844posts, waterways, sunflower3, MrSkinner and Lumi are all in a tight race with Sryanbruen making further progress to sixth place now).

Four Seasons update to follow ...

M.T. Cranium

Updated Four Seasons Scoring Points

Summer total points for June, July and August are then ranked with ten points to the winner and 7 for second place, 6 for third etc down to 2 points for 7th place and one point for 8th, 9th and 10th. Those are then added to winter 2015-16 and spring 2016 points in this table ... only those who enter three months are eligible for points but all totals are shown, any with an asterisk * are for two months only. Lostinashford only played in June.

FORECASTER _____ Summer total ___points __ spring __ winter __ TOTAL (rank)


Sryanbruen ____________ 218 _____ 10 ______ -- _____ -- ____10 (t4)
Sunflower3 _____________210 ______ 7 ______ -- _____ 1 ____ 8 ( 8)
MrSkinner ______________207 ______ 6 ______ -- _____ 5 ___ 11 ( 3)
Kindred spirit ___________199 ______ 5 ______ -- _____ -- ____ 5 (t11)
waterways _____________ 197 ______ 4 ______ 1 _____ 7 ____12 ( 2)
DOCARCH ______________195 ______ 3 ______ 2 _____ -- ____ 5 (t11)
Lumi __________________191 ______ 2 ______ 5 _____ 2 ____ 9 ( 7)

Con Sensus _____________190 ______ 1 ______ 6 _____ 2 ____ 9 (t7)

Norma L _______________ 189 ______ 1 ______ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 (t16)

Tae laidir ______________ 182 ______ 1 ______ -- _____ 6 ____ 7 ( 9)
Rameire _______________ 177 ______ 1 ______ 1 _____ -- ____ 2 (15)
Dasa29 ________________177 ______ 1 ______ -- _____ -- ____ 1 (t16)
John mac ______________ 173 ______ -- ______ -- _____ -- ____ 0
Rikand ________________ 172 ______ -- ______ -- ____ 10 ____ 10 (t4)
Dacogawa _____________ 172 ______ -- ______ 6 _____ -- ____ 6 (10)
Joe Public ______________170 ______ -- ______ 1 _____ -- ____ 1 (t16)
Pauldry _______________ 165 ______ -- ______ -- _____ -- ____ 0
Bsal __________________ 165 ______ -- ______ -- _____ -- ____ 0
JD____________________ 159 ______ -- ______ -- _____ 1 ____ 1 (t16)
M.T. Cranium ___________ 153 ______ --______ 5 _____ -- ____ 5 (t11)
200motels _____________ 143 ______ --______ 3 _____ -- ____ 3 (14)
Jpmarn ________________143 ______ --______ -- _____ -- ____ 0

mickger844posts ________ 121*______ -- ______ 10 _____ 4 ____ 14 ( 1)
lostinashford ____________036** _____ -- ______ 7 _____ 3 ____ 10 (t4)


Schadenfreudia _________ -- -- ______ -- ______ -- _____ 1 ____ 1 (t16)

____________________________________________

Table shows the order of points for the summer season, the annual totals are ranked.

Well done sryanbruen for winning the summer seasonal prize, meanwhile Mickger844posts remains in first place overall despite not picking up any new points in summer. Waterways and MrSkinner are closing in after gaining several points in summer.

mickger844posts

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Well done sryanbruen for winning the summer seasonal prize, meanwhile Mickger844posts remains in first place overall despite not picking up any new points in summer. Waterways and MrSkinner are closing in after gaining several points in summer.

Shocked to be ranked at 1 especially considering i missed July. I was living in Taiwan from early June to the end of August so was out of the loop somewhat. Still a long way to go but nice to be top of the pile for now

M.T. Cranium

Well, just to clarify, you are right about being in first overall in both the Boards award (best 7 of 8 at this point) and the four seasons, just wondering if you noticed that you were leading in both as you've quoted the four seasons comment.

Missing July meant that you could not score points in the four seasons summer portion but it just means that you don't have a low score to drop in the best 7 of 8; when we go to best 8 of 10 in the October scoring, you will have a low month to drop and as that would be a 59 so far you're going to need to keep piling on the points when the close competitors get to drop their second lowest scores. It's complicated.

I neglected to mention this but it looks to me as though this year's contest may have the closest finish ever, in fact I can't really rule out even the lower third of the field at this point. In August there was a general tendency for the field to tighten up. There is only a gap of 86 points from first to last in the Boards award section, meaning that if last place scored an average of 20 higher than first now, in the four remaining months, that deficit can be made up.