M11/N11 - M50 (J4) to Coyne's Cross (J14) [options published]

KrisW1001

Most road tunnels are curved. The Dublin Port Tunnel has two very long bends in it to avoid areas where the ground was expensive to tunnel through. The Jack Lynch Tunnel in Cork is also curved. Only the Shannon Tunnel is straight.

hometruths

KrisW1001 wrote: »

Most road tunnels are curved. The Dublin Port Tunnel has two very long bends in it to avoid areas where the ground was expensive to tunnel through. The Jack Lynch Tunnel in Cork is also curved. Only the Shannon Tunnel is straight.

Would the tunnel be more expensive than cyan do you think? That would be my presumption

loyatemu

Hypothetically I'd expect a tunnel to follow the Cyan route except it would be straighter as it wouldn't have to avoid the hillfort on the top of Downshill.

This is northern approach to the Glen at J9 - it's difficult to see where they can slew the road west and into a tunnel without a lot of earthworks, maybe CPOing and demolishing the Glenview hotel (Cyan route forks before J9 and to the north of the hotel). Tunnel would be 2km+ long to go under Downshill (to the right in this photo)



I still expect whatever they decide to do will be along the existing (red) corridor.

Steve012

marno21 wrote: »

Where did the 1 billion price tag come from?

I heard its more than 1 billion.

Sam Russell

Steve012 wrote: »

I heard its more than 1 billion.

That is one way of making it above €1 billion - put it out that it is above a billion and soon it will be accepted wisdom (?) that it will cost more than a billion, and maybe even two billion. That just talks up the price, even though there is no decision on route yet, which obviously has a major effect on price.

We are on target to have the most expensive children's hospital in the world by some huge margin because of the mistakes in its design and location, plus he political messing.

spacetweek

I've updated the Traffic Counts section on my website with figures for 2019 and 2020.
As you'd expect there has been a huge drop off in traffic levels due to the pandemic.
Particularly around Dublin, some of the drop-offs are so severe that, at least temporarily, they reduce the justification for road improvements.
For example, regarding this scheme, at Fassaroe traffic is down 26%, from 78,000 vehicles per day to 54,000.

prunudo

Unfortunately, while it would be great to think numbers will continue to be low, eventually the volumes will return and probably be worse than ever in a year or two. The volume of house building in the area is crazy and that will only lead to one thing as there isn't enough local employment being created. While working from home will help, it won't be the golden goose some hope for.

Steve012

prunudo wrote: »

Unfortunately, while it would be great to think numbers will continue to be low, eventually the volumes will return and probably be worse than ever in a year or two. The volume of house building in the area is crazy and that will only lead to one thing as there isn't enough local employment being created. While working from home will help, it won't be the golden goose some hope for.

Yep, agree with that, over next 3 years be back to even higher levels than 2018.
mostly because of satellite area's, newtown, kilcoole, then further down.new builds

punisher5112

So again the powers that be never learn.....

The sooner that numpty transport minister is gone the better, he wants us all walking or cycling.

Sam Russell

punisher5112 wrote: »

So again the powers that be never learn.....

The sooner that numpty transport minister is gone the better, he wants us all walking or cycling.

I think he is also in favour of trains and buses. The Dart needs dual tracking to Greystones and further to allow those living south of Bray an option to travel to the city centre by frequent PT.

donvito99

punisher5112 wrote: »

The sooner that numpty transport minister is gone the better, he wants us all walking or cycling.

God forbid a transport minister doing something to address traffic congestion.

Carawaystick

punisher5112 wrote: »

Yes but this isn't happening, it's left like it is the last 22-23 years.....

It will be happening in these changes to motorway though, well that's obviously the plan.

The junctions at Kilpeddar and Willow Grove were shut more recently than that

prunudo

Carawaystick wrote: »

The junctions at Kilpeddar and Willow Grove were shut more recently than that

2003 believe it or not so not far off.

Just regarding the mention of a €1bn price tag. We need to stop focusing on what big infrastructure costs. Whether they upgrade the n11 or the trainline (I believe we need both) its going to be an eye watering price tag. Construction prices are continually going up and the process to get projects even through planning is taking longer and longer. Some sort of plan is needed and needs to be stuck to without the meddling of politicians for their own point scoring exercises.

donvito99

prunudo wrote: »

2003 believe it or not so not far off.

Just regarding the mention of a €1bn price tag. We need to stop focusing on what big infrastructure costs. Whether they upgrade the n11 or the trainline (I believe we need both) its going to be an eye watering price tag. Construction prices are continually going up and the process to get projects even through planning is taking longer and longer. Some sort of plan is needed and needs to be stuck to without the meddling of politicians for their own point scoring exercises.

The problem isn't the price tag, it's the opportunity cost and the benefit.

If the Glen of the Downs was still an old style N road - one lane in each direction plus hard shoulders - then a motorway as is proposed now is the solution.

We have a dual carriageway already. It is not perfect by any means, but to spend a billion to shave a couple of minutes off the journey (off peak) and put the tail backs somewhere else at peak times, is almost criminal.

Close the dangerous junctions, stick in an overbridge where necessary, reduce to 80kph in other parts if necessary and spend the billion quid on infrastructure that actually reduces congestion.

prunudo

donvito99 wrote: »

The problem isn't the price tag, it's the opportunity cost and the benefit.

If the Glen of the Downs was still an old style N road - one lane in each direction plus hard shoulders - then a motorway as is proposed now is the solution.

We have a dual carriageway already. It is not perfect by any means, but to spend a billion to shave a couple of minutes off the journey (off peak) and put the tail backs somewhere else at peak times, is almost criminal.

Close the dangerous junctions, stick in an overbridge where necessary, reduce to 80kph in other parts if necessary and spend the billion quid on infrastructure that actually reduces congestion.

For what its worth, I've no idea where the €1bn even came from, I can't see how it will cost that much unless they plan to tunnel the whole project.
My point was really though that as time goes on €1bn isn't as much as it used to be when it comes to infrastructure and we need to start accepting that large scale building projects are going to start having big figures attached to them as both construction costs increase and as is evident lately, increasing likelihoods of legal challenges with the associated professional fees.

Steve012

prunudo wrote: »

For what its worth, I've no idea where the €1bn even came from, I can't see how it will cost that much unless they plan to tunnel the whole project.
My point was really though that as time goes on €1bn isn't as much as it used to be when it comes to infrastructure and we need to start accepting that large scale building projects are going to start having big figures attached to them as both construction costs increase and as is evident lately, increasing likelihoods of legal challenges with the associated professional fees.

It's well over 1 billion I heard, close to 2.3 mate!

spacetweek

Steve012 wrote: »

It's well over 1 billion I heard, close to 2.3 mate!

That must be a nonsense figure? Sure Metrolink will cost 2.3 billion!

KrisW1001

2.3 billion is nonsense. Probably from the same sage who said M20 would cost three billion...

marno21

KrisW1001 wrote: »

2.3 billion is nonsense. Probably from the same sage who said M20 would cost three billion...

The same sage who objected to the last N11 improvement and happens to be in charge of the Department.

Sam Russell

KrisW1001 wrote: »

2.3 billion is nonsense. Probably from the same sage who said M20 would cost three billion...

How can anyone price a build that has not even got a route identified, nor the type of build that will be done. It is just plucking numbers from someone's rear end.

The source of the figure is not identified so should definitely be treated as nonsense.

Steve012

Sam Russell wrote: »

How can anyone price a build that has not even got a route identified, nor the type of build that will be done. It is just plucking numbers from someone's rear end.

The source of the figure is not identified so should definitely be treated as nonsense.

This is what I was told for the whole job (which is massive).... its going to take years, new fly overs etc.. etc..

From Arup.
So no it's not a nonsense figure at all.

KrisW1001

Phonecall:
TD: "how much does it cost to build a house?"
Engineer: "What kind of house?"
TD: "You know... a house. A nice one."
Engineer: "Without knowing what's needed, or the ground, or the access, I've no idea! It could cost anything: it could be 100k, or it could be over a million euro!"

Headline:
TD SAYS HOUSE TO COST "OVER MILLION EURO"



2.3 billion for this is a nonsense figure until the route, and thus the real scope of works, becomes known. And no, Arup does not know that route already. If they did, revealing this by telling you would land them in a lot of legal trouble.

Steve012

KrisW1001 wrote: »

Phonecall:
TD: "how much does it cost to build a house?"
Engineer: "What kind of house?"
TD: "You know... a house. A nice one."
Engineer: "Without knowing what's needed, or the ground, or the access, I've no idea! It could cost anything: it could be 100k, or it could be over a million euro!"

Headline:
TD SAYS HOUSE TO COST "OVER MILLION EURO"



2.3 billion for this is a nonsense figure until the route, and thus the real scope of works, becomes known. And no, Arup does not know that route already. If they did, revealing this by telling you would land them in a lot of legal trouble.

Back when this came to the fore, I met with Arup they mentioned 2.3 for the scale of the project.

That's where I heard it.

Sam Russell

Steve012 wrote: »

Back when this came to the fore, I met with Arup they mentioned 2.3 for the scale of the project.

That's where I heard it.

What was the pay grade of the person that told you this?

Steve012

Sam Russell wrote: »

What was the pay grade of the person that told you this?

lol No that was there original estimate a fair few years back.

spacetweek

They haven't picked a preferred route and some routes need tunnels and some are just widening of the existing road. The price difference between those 2 is enormous.

Sam Russell

Mod: Discussion of the price estimate for this project is a bit previous, and can only be considered devious. It will only divert this thread down a rabbit hole.

No route selection. No road type defined - motorway or DC? Will it be tunnelled? When will the work be started? Will it even be done?

Please wait until the preferred route is selected, and those questions above can be answered. They will have a large effect on the likely cost. There is plenty more to discuss.


Thank you for your understanding.

Pete_Cavan

Perhaps the combined cost of all potential routes might get you close to 2.3bn!

loyatemu

is this new? interactive map of the current options:
https://atlas-ie.arup.com/portal/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a47cd00abeee44a49cfdfed7a8993da8&fbclid=IwAR1hSmO8aFdqtt63AiuJVTy-FFTHjNOYGAuQk1Y67NF9a3HLVs73SPQvn7Q

hometruths

loyatemu wrote: »

is this new? interactive map of the current options:
https://atlas-ie.arup.com/portal/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a47cd00abeee44a49cfdfed7a8993da8&fbclid=IwAR1hSmO8aFdqtt63AiuJVTy-FFTHjNOYGAuQk1Y67NF9a3HLVs73SPQvn7Q

Certainly new to me. Is that purple corridor the tunnel?