2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

Sofa Spud

derm0j073 wrote: »

This is the big issue facing the GOP in the coming years , if they don't change there's a good chance a figure like you describe above can hijack the nomination . Bring the crazy and you'll have a shot at running for President .

I think that's almost certainly going to happen. Look at the 'crazy creep' that's been happening over the last decade or so as the media landscape has turned into silos of echo chambers fueling the crazy - Palin, Santorum, Bachmann, Cain, Carson, Cruz - it's an ever growing list and the old school are being squeezed out. Would someone like McCain even have a chance at this stage? Look what happened with Gingrich and Christie this election cycle. Both would have been seen as being from the more sane side of the party, even if Gingrich has always been an ideologue on the more right of the party, and both ended up jumping on the Trump wagon.

Ryan has taken a really wobbly position in terms of not endorsing/endorsing, giving support but distancing himself and what would appear to have been his plan - get the speakership and then use that as spring board for 2020, would now appear to be in tatters. He may get some plaudits from inside the party if the GOP maintains the house, but if Trump comes close but loses, he can cry that he would have won if the leadership had supported him and Ryan could very well end up being part of the purge if the crazies take over.

It's hard to make a call on what will happen post election and post Trump's inevitable Twitter meltdown, but it's not going to be pretty....

A Little Pony

Congress will just block anything Hillary wants to do if she wins the election. So in a way this election is pointless if she wins as nothing will get done. I can only say thanks to Thomas Jefferson, Adams and the other Founding Fathers in this instance.

Ted Cruz has already said that is what congress plans on doing and I think if it saves the world from a war with Russia, then good.

rossie1977

Carcharodon wrote: »

Unfortunately not enough of the latter as people here seem to have this irrational sense of loyalty to their party, the whole two party system is a joke anyway but thats another discussion. Its scary how Republicans are able to convince themselves is a good candidate and better than Clinton, the man is the laughing stock of the rest of the world

60 million people voted for a guy in poor health and his running mate Sarah Palin in 2008 despite the fact they were representing the party who had held power for 8 years while 800,000 people a month lost their jobs and the Dow plunged towards 6,000 rendering their retirement monies useless

There is a massive divide in the us and as much as people talk what they will and won't do, trump (despite being the most unqualified candidate ever to run for highest office on the planet) will garner a ton of votes

Sofa Spud

A Little Pony wrote: »

Congress will just block anything Hillary wants to do if she wins the election. So in a way this election is pointless if she wins as nothing will get done. I can only say thanks to Thomas Jefferson, Adams and the other Founding Fathers in this instance.

Ted Cruz has already said that is what congress plans on doing and I think if it saves the world from a war with Russia, then good.

Could congress save the world from war with Russia? They've more or less given the President the power to intervene militarily without the need for congressional approval and any future conflict is likely to arise out of an escalation of a smaller intervention. Also, and I need to state that I am not a conspiracy nut or have any time for them, but the largest contributor to congressional campaigns, either through direct funding or the fact that they have manufacturing facilities in most key congressional districts, is the military industrial complex. They have experienced a boom over the past 15 years and they need something to maintain demand, which means something to deplete existing stocks, and that means hawks that will drive new conflicts. But how that could result in war with Russia is hard to see - mutually assured destruction hasn't gone away, you know....

A Little Pony

Sofa Spud wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

Congress will just block anything Hillary wants to do if she wins the election. So in a way this election is pointless if she wins as nothing will get done. I can only say thanks to Thomas Jefferson, Adams and the other Founding Fathers in this instance.

Ted Cruz has already said that is what congress plans on doing and I think if it saves the world from a war with Russia, then good.

Could congress save the world from war with Russia? They've more or less given the President the power to intervene militarily without the need for congressional approval and any future conflict is likely to arise out of an escalation of a smaller intervention. Also, and I need to state that I am not a conspiracy nut or have any time for them, but the largest contributor to congressional campaigns, either through direct funding or the fact that they have manufacturing facilities in most key congressional districts, it the military industrial complex. They have experienced a boom over the past 15 years and they need something to maintain demand, which means something to deplete existing stocks, and that means hawks that will drive new conflicts. But how that could result in war with Russia is hard to see - mutually assured destruction hasn't gone away, you know....

Hillary is hated by Republicans in congress, I don't see her being able to get anything done. Obama has been a waste of time simply down to him not being able to do anything. No wonder he plays Golf all the time. It is actually the beauty of America that the President doesn't have all the power and can't just act like a dictator.


Although that doesn't stop dictatorial actions IF congress backs you as we seen with Iraq.

alastair

A Little Pony wrote: »

Obama has been a waste of time simply down to him not being able to do anything. No wonder he plays Golf all the time. It is actually the beauty of America that the President doesn't have all the power and can't just act like a dictator.

Obama hasn't just been golfing - he's been busy working around a log jammed congress: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/14/us/politics/obama-era-legacy-regulation.html?_r=0

History may now judge the regulations to be one of Mr. Obama’s most enduring legacies. At the least, his exercise of administrative power expanded and cemented a domestic legacy that now rivals Lyndon B. Johnson’s Great Society in reach and scope.

In May, Mr. Obama was asked by a farmer in Elkhart, Ind., to justify the “dramatic increase” in government regulations that affected his business. “I’m not interested in regulating just for the sake of regulating,” Mr. Obama responded. “But there are some things like making sure we’ve got clean air and clean water, making sure that folks have health insurance, making sure that worker safety is a priority — that, I do think, is part of our overall obligation.”

Sofa Spud

A Little Pony wrote: »

Hillary is hated by Republicans in congress, I don't see her being able to get anything done. Obama has been a waste of time simply down to him not being able to do anything. No wonder he plays Golf all the time. It is actually the beauty of America that the President doesn't have all the power and can't just act like a dictator.


Although that doesn't stop dictatorial actions IF congress backs you as we seen with Iraq.

Yeah, but it's also not great that a President that is elected with a mandate for their platform is unable to enact any or most of it into legislation because of congressional grid-lock.

Politics has become so adversarial that it's no longer about ideology or doing what's right for the country and it's all simply about winning, or more accurately, making the opposition look like they have lost. Even if the Dems win the Senate, which is looking possible, the now over-use of the filibuster ruling means they will still need 60 votes to get anything passed. The GOP House majority will be reduced - unlikely to lose the House but it could happen - so they will block everything and get nothing done themselves.

Hillary is hated, they have enough ammunition from wiki-leaks, Clinton Foundation and the beloved Benghazi to keep her tied up in congressional hearings and everyone will want to score points with their base by attacking her at every opportunity. The tin-foil hat wearing media will demonise her and, baring good mid-term elections, which is unlikely, the murky political cesspool will continue to stagnate.

Bi-partisanship, such as that shown by Tip O'Neil when he worked with Reagan, it not just a thing of the past, but is fundamentally impossible now, especially on the GOP side, as any compromise is seen as a sign of weakness and perpetrators will not even get past their next primary...

Zubeneschamali

A Little Pony wrote: »

Congress will just block anything Hillary wants to do if she wins the election.

Equally, Hillary and the Dems in the Senate will block the Republican lunatics in the House from slashing taxes on the rich and running up the deficit as Paul Ryan would like.

So everyone is happy!

Amerika

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Equally, Hillary and the Dems in the Senate will block the Republican lunatics in the House from slashing taxes on the rich and running up the deficit as Paul Ryan would like.

So everyone is happy!

How exactly does Paul Ryan want to run up the deficit?

Zubeneschamali

Amerika wrote: »

How exactly does Paul Ryan want to run up the deficit?

By slashing taxes on the rich.

Amerika

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

By slashing taxes on the rich.

Didn't he also seek budget cuts to go along with tax cuts?

Sofa Spud

Amerika wrote: »

Didn't he also seek budget cuts to go along with tax cuts?

Yeah, but the cuts never get passed as no one wants to be seen to cut entitlements, especially the GOP, as their base tends to be older and therefore more reliant on entitlement programms and also more likely to vote.

The GOP will flag some darling target of talk radio to get cut, like Planned Parenthood or liberal icons like PBS or the EPA, which if enacted would have a minuscule impact on the deficit and never, ever mention what the biggest drain on the budget and deficit is - military spending.

AbusesToilets

Sofa Spud wrote: »

Yeah, but the cuts never get passed as no one wants to be seen to cut entitlements, especially the GOP, as their base tends to be older and therefore more reliant on entitlement programms and also more likely to vote.

The GOP will flag some darling target of talk radio to get cut, like Planned Parenthood or liberal icons like PBS or the EPA, which if enacted would have a minuscule impact on the deficit and never, ever mention what the biggest drain on the budget and deficit is - military spending.

Biggest budgetary items in the US are Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security fyi

Sofa Spud

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Biggest budgetary items in the US are Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security fyi

True - I meant the biggest item in discretionary spending - Medicare/Medicaid and SS come under mandatory spending and there will never be the votes to cut them as it would be political suicide. As would cutting military spending, so really, the only option is increasing tax receipts, which the GOP will never do - thanks to Grover Norquist - and the dems are unlikely to have to votes to push tax increases through, so it'll tick along as is until it all collapses....

TheDoctor

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Biggest budgetary items in the US are Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security fyi

Military.

Can easily slash a few billion off that waste of money.

Sofa Spud

TheDoctor wrote: »

Military.

Can easily slash a few billion off that waste of money.

Problem with this is that the military corporations are not just some of the biggest donors, but they have deliberately spread manufacturing facilities around all states (with the exception of Alaska I think) so that anyone who proposes or supports military spending cuts will have angry workers on their door steps crying blue murder at them for endangering their jobs. Does anyone know what percentage of the overall industrial manufacturing base in the U.S. is made up of military or supporting industries? Would think, with the demise of auto and heavy industries in the now 'rust-belt' that it makes up a disproportionate share and therefore, cuts to spending would have a huge impact on industrial output and employment...

Billy86

A Little Pony wrote: »

Congress will just block anything Hillary wants to do if she wins the election. So in a way this election is pointless if she wins as nothing will get done. I can only say thanks to Thomas Jefferson, Adams and the other Founding Fathers in this instance.

Ted Cruz has already said that is what congress plans on doing and I think if it saves the world from a war with Russia, then good.

That is highly dependent on who wins the senate also, I would reckon. Clinton is going to win the election and so the supreme court will turn liberal for the first time in (if I recall) over 40 years, though the republicans are almost definitely going to win the House. Right now the seats race is close, with the Democrats holding and slim lead going by polls and such, as well as the caveat that 48 seats would give them an majority of sorts, keeping Sanders, King (the two independents) and Kaine (president of the senate) in mind.

AbusesToilets

TheDoctor wrote: »

Military.

Can easily slash a few billion off that waste of money.

Military spending has been slashed. The biggest issue with both the discretionary spending and military spending is the waste and inefficiency.

The US is already by far the biggest spender on healthcare and education, for fairly dubious returns. The recent hike in insurance premiums under the Affordable Healthcare Act got a lot of play. The administration response was not to worry, as the costs would be offset by government subsidies. What're the odds that premiums go up again in the near future, as companies know the government will cover the increased price, just as they do with the Federal student loans.

The miliatry is in a rather perilous place currently. It's weaker than it has been in decades, possibly since pre-WW1. There are numerous costly programs that are eating up the budget, for debatable outcomes, whilst man power is reaching crisis levels, and training and readiness are severely impacted. If the US wants to spend less on the military, then it needs to change its foreign policy, as that's what the military has been built to serve.

Amerika

8 points for Hillary vanish in 4 days. And hold the presses... Artificial Intelligence predicts a Trump win.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/donald-trump-will-win-the-election-and-is-more-popular-than-obama-in-2008-ai-system-finds.html

The Russians?

KingBrian2

Trump has the protest vote in the bag but we see a very big anti Trump vote as well. These people don't like Hillary or any of her policies they only hate Trump so come election day we'll see if that hate is enough to drive them towards the voting booth.

alastair

Amerika wrote: »

8 points for Hillary vanish in 4 days. And hold the presses... Artificial Intelligence predicts a Trump win.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/donald-trump-will-win-the-election-and-is-more-popular-than-obama-in-2008-ai-system-finds.html

The Russians?

Given that the algorithm seems to just track social media chatter, Trump is the clear winner for sure. It'll be a consolation for him as the new president settles into her role.

Amerika

alastair wrote: »

Given that the algorithm seems to just track social media chatter, Trump is the clear winner for sure. It'll be a consolation for him as the new president settles into her role.

So with Evan McMullin taking Utah, causing the Electoral College to become a tie between Trump and Clinton, Paul Ryan picks Jill Stein to become President and Mitch McConnell picks Gary Johnson for Vice President? Interesting concept you have there.

K-9

Igotadose wrote: »

I'm in the group Carcharodon (great nick!) describes. Live here, US citizen, wife's a dual. Neither of us would've voted for HRC if there'd been a better candidate in any other party. Jill Stein's an opportunistic loon with situational ethics, her VP is some sort of space alien spawn, Gary Johnson's smoked too much weed and it's addled his brain, and Hair Furor...

So, holding our noses and voting for HRC since we CANNOT have Hair Furor in the WH. Period. If, say, Romney'd been the Republican nominee, well, that might've worked for us. If Sanders had been the nominee, we'd probably have voted for him.

Mod:
Please use the candidates names when referring to them.

Christy42

alastair wrote: »

Given that the algorithm seems to just track social media chatter, Trump is the clear winner for sure. It'll be a consolation for him as the new president settles into her role.

What you need to remember is that polls that predict Trump as the winner are accurate and obviously predictive. Any that predict Clinton as the winner are merely liberal bias by the media.

This is why the right winger's here only ever predict a single poll at a time and ignore the rest while the liberals can point to any poll aggregators and mathematicians who compile them (as well as some seriously less qualified poll aggregators but they should be ignored).
See 538, Princeton Electorate Consortium.

Also there are more Trump voters that no one ever polls and haven't voted before but somehow don't show up in voter registrations and weren't Republicans/shy about being Trump supporters during the primaries.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

gosplan

Amerika wrote: »

8 points for Hillary vanish in 4 days. And hold the presses... Artificial Intelligence predicts a Trump win.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/donald-trump-will-win-the-election-and-is-more-popular-than-obama-in-2008-ai-system-finds.html

The Russians?

Hah.

2 + 2 = fish

Nabber

Pitch either of these against any other Candidate and they lose.

I don't like Thrump, but I dislike Clinton more. She has a terrible attitude at the Benghazi hearings. Smiling, laughing and joking. I'm not sure she values human life not even American. The immunity given to the folks involved now means it's very unlikely Clinton can be convicted of anything.

As bad as Thrump is, it's bad to see a corrupt politician possibly wining an election, whilst also evading justice.

Looking back at both Primaries, most were terrible from both sides.

Christy42

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Sorry I should have phrased that better. I meant some but not all which is not what I wrote.

It just annoys me. We had this continual implication that the polls and statititions were wrong 4 years ago. We have it now and will have it again in 4 years if the Democrat is ahead in them then. If the Republicans are ahead next time and the left wingers start up this bull then feel free to bring it to my attention as I will get more annoyed at that (I would label myself as a left winger and irrationally feel like that would reflect badly on me as a result).

You are correct that many Republicans (and right wingers since I don't think you are Republican if I remember correctly) have seen the writing on the wall.

Itssoeasy

Fox News are reporting breaking news(so it's probably an hour old at this point) that the FBI are reopening the investigation into Hillary clintons use of a private server.

Amerika

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Fox News are reporting breaking news(so it's probably an hour old at this point) that the FBI are reopening the investigation into Hillary clintons use of a private server.

CNBC is reporting the same...

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/fbi-probing-new-clinton-emails.html

Sofa Spud

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Fox News are reporting breaking news(so it's probably an hour old at this point) that the FBI are reopening the investigation into Hillary clintons use of a private server.

Not the wording FBI used - reopening comes from GOP Rep Chaffetz - could be nothing, could be something, doubt any will care at this point....

Amerika

Christy42 wrote: »

Sorry I should have phrased that better. I meant some but not all which is not what I wrote.

It just annoys me. We had this continual implication that the polls and statititions were wrong 4 years ago. We have it now and will have it again in 4 years if the Democrat is ahead in them then. If the Republicans are ahead next time and the left wingers start up this bull then feel free to bring it to my attention as I will get more annoyed at that (I would label myself as a left winger and irrationally feel like that would reflect badly on me as a result).

You are correct that many Republicans (and right wingers since I don't think you are Republican if I remember correctly) have seen the writing on the wall.

Who then? I know I have said there might be hope for Trump, but I think Hillary will win, as even if Trump might get the popular vote, I don't see a path for him to get to 270 EC votes.

Itssoeasy

Sofa Spud wrote: »

Not the wording FBI used - reopening comes from GOP Rep Chaffetz - could be nothing, could be something, doubt any will care at this point....

I'm just quoting what fox said in the notification I got.

Christy42

Amerika wrote: »

Who then? I know I have said there might be hope for Trump, but I think Hillary will win, as even if Trump might get the popular vote, I don't see a path for him to get to 270 EC votes.

And yet you decided to report on a Clinton collapse. You didn't say hope, you went straight to the 8 point collapse in a poll that is probably an anomaly (and looking into it a poster pointed it out it is just a social media thing anyway). At a minimum the way you reported that story was misleading.

Endoftheroad keeps going on about shy voters too. I am not bothered going through the various times it has been brought up. Of course each time it is just an opinion that is held in the face of all evidence purely to keep bringing the topic and the largely tiny possibility back into people's minds. There is an equal possibility of shy Clinton voters from what I can see that these posters forget to mention at the time but don't disagree with when it is pointed out.

B0jangles

Seems like a very big and public step to take so close to the election when there is so far no evidence that whatever they have found is either important or relevant according to Comey's own letter:

Amerika

Christy42 wrote: »

And yet you decided to report on a Clinton collapse. You didn't say hope, you went straight to the 8 point collapse in a poll that is probably an anomaly (and looking into it a poster pointed it out it is just a social media thing anyway). At a minimum the way you reported that story was misleading.

Endoftheroad keeps going on about shy voters too. I am not bothered going through the various times it has been brought up. Of course each time it is just an opinion that is held in the face of all evidence purely to keep bringing the topic and the largely tiny possibility back into people's minds. There is an equal possibility of shy Clinton voters from what I can see that these posters forget to mention at the time but don't disagree with when it is pointed out.

That's all hope. Doesn't mean I think he will win with only 10 days to go. I do think it will be closer in the end than what all the talking heads predict, though.

A Little Pony

Get big money on Trump now, I am certainly putting some on him to win, this news is huge.

Zubeneschamali

A Little Pony wrote: »

I am certainly putting some on him to win

I bet you are.

Billy86

A Little Pony wrote: »

Get big money on Trump now, I am certainly putting some on him to win, this news is huge.

You said similar a few days ago then disappeared when I offered you a bet for charity on here.

A Little Pony

B0jangles wrote: »

Seems like a very big and public step to take so close to the election when there is so far no evidence that whatever they have found is either important or relevant according to Comey's own letter:

They tried to cover it up but once Trump said he will clean out the swamp as he put it, they can't take the risk. Otherwise they would be fked.

cnocbui

Nice to see the FBI engaging in politics and trying to influence the outcome of an election.

Sand

Cover up what exactly? Clintons private email server use was obviously ill advised but nothing, absolutely nothing has come out of all the SVR RF hacks except frankly boring gossip and politicking.

If Clinton was running against anyone except Trump, she would lose. But she is running against Trump so she could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and she wouldn't lose voters.

Sofa Spud

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I'm just quoting what fox said in the notification I got.

Itssoeasy - that was kinda my point - they picked up what a GOP hack said and not the actual release from the FBI.

Billy86

cnocbui wrote: »

Nice to see the FBI engaging in politics and trying to influence the outcome of an election.

I doubt that's the case to be honest, though it is interesting as I was expecting one side or the other to drop something big this weekend or Monday at the latest - probably the last window for any news to have a real chance at influencing voters.

RobertKK

The FBI say they found new emails, but the FBI themselves were having a bit of a credibility problem with their initial ruling to not seek prosecution.
I had asked during the past 48, who holds the FBI to account if they fail to do their job properly, but at least they see to be redeeming themselves.
For the record, I have a couple of cousins who work in the FBI.
I was disappointed with their initial ruling, but it is good that maybe justice will be served this time.
Hillary may be going to prison where she can share details with Chelsea Manning on how not to use classified information.

alastair

A Little Pony wrote: »

They tried to cover it up but once Trump said he will clean out the swamp as he put it, they can't take the risk. Otherwise they would be fked.

I think the FBI are as aware as everyone else that Trump will be clearing out the swamp of his failed campaign while Hillary gets on with the job of running the country. They're just doing the job they were tasked with - the one where they made very clear that there was no criminality involved.

B0jangles

A Little Pony wrote: »

They tried to cover it up but once Trump said he will clean out the swamp as he put it, they can't take the risk. Otherwise they would be fked.

So let me get the narrative straight:

1. FBI is paid off by the Clintons to close the investigation on Crooked Hillary
2. They sit tight until Clinton is just over a week away from a landslide victory according to all the aggregated polls.
3. Donald says he'll 'clean the swamp' as one of his many many threats at his rallies.
4. FBI completely panics, throws out an empty letter containing nothing specific AT ALL in order to stop Clinton getting elected and to get Donald into the White House.

Is that the story we're going to run with?

Billy86

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37805525

FBI director James Comey has told Congress the bureau is reopening its inquiry into Hillary Clinton's emails.

Investigators have discovered new emails "in connection with an unrelated case... that appear to be pertinent to the investigation", he said.

Mr Comey said investigators would determine whether the emails contain classified information.

A Little Pony

RobertKK wrote: »

The FBI say they found new emails, but the FBI themselves were having a bit of a credibility problem with their initial ruling to not seek prosecution.
I had asked during the past 48, who holds the FBI to account if they fail to do their job properly, but at least they see to be redeeming themselves.
For the record, I have a couple of cousins who work in the FBI.
I was disappointed with their initial ruling, but it is good that maybe justice will be served this time.
Hillary may be going to prison where she can share details with Chelsea Manning on how not to use classified information.

The woman is as bent as they come. Without the protection this race would be over. Slowly but surely its falling apart.

Billy86

B0jangles wrote: »

So let me get the narrative straight:

1. FBI is paid off by the Clintons to close the investigation on Crooked Hillary
2. They sit tight until Clinton is just over a week away from a landslide victory according to all the aggregated polls.
3. Donald says he'll 'clean the swamp' as one of his many many threats at his rallies.
4. FBI completely panics, throws out an empty letter containing nothing specific AT ALL in order to stop Clinton getting elected and to get Donald into the White House.

Is that the story we're going to run with?

This poster a few days ago was saying they reckoned Trump was the favourite to win, yet refused to take up a €5 bet on Trump to win at 20/1 odds.

You can make of that what you will...