2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

Billy86

Pro Hoc Vice wrote: »

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/10/was_a_server_registered_to_the_trump_organization_communicating_with_russia.html

Why does Trump have a server with a secure connection to Russia?

Might have something to do with things like his considerable ties to Russia, his relationship top utan that he is on record saying he has despite later lying by claiming otherwise, and the close connections his old campaign manager Paul Manafon has with Russia that the FBI were investigating but chose to keep entirely silent on in utter contrast to the Clinton emails last weekend.

I said at the time that I didn't find what Coney did too dodgy, but with what else has come to light in regards to the Russian stuff (which he agreed on), its extremely dodgy to put it mildly.

Mr.Micro

Looks like Trump has got the edge in the latest poll.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/1101/828360-trump-clinton-us-election-2016/

Christy42

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Looks like Trump has got the edge in the latest poll.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/1101/828360-trump-clinton-us-election-2016/

Ugh. Trump does not have the edge. rte wanted clicks and they found a poll that has Trump ahead and made a story out of it. As ever wait for a few to come in and see where they average out to and how much they have moved.

Poll aggregators. That is where it is at.

TheDoctor

Happy November everyone, nearly there.

Zubeneschamali

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Looks like Trump has got the edge in the latest poll.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2016/1101/828360-trump-clinton-us-election-2016/

Good, don't want Hillary supporters getting complacent. Even an outlier poll like this can help wake them up.

Boulevardier

I think that the Clinton campaign is an instance of where some simple changes of visual style would instil greater confidence in the candidate.

First, Hillary should lose the ridiculous 1970s glamorous granny trouser suit. Secondly, she should stop dancing onto the podium. Thirdly, she should drop that silly pretence of greeting a friend of hers in the audience. We all know there is no-one there.

Hillary should appear in a dingified, statesmanlike dress and wear a serious expression to match.

A bit of dignitas and gravitas would go a long way.

Trump may be a lot of things, but at least he has reasonable campaign dress sense.

Mr.Micro

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Good, don't want Hillary supporters getting complacent. Even an outlier poll like this can help wake them up.

Will it make a difference? Too late methinks, the momentum appears to be with Trump. I just cannot fathom why anyone would vote for him, other than to stop her.

Zubeneschamali

Boulevardier wrote: »

A bit of dignitas and gravitas would go a long way.

The smiley happy act is a direct result of all the abuse she suffered over the years for being too serious, boring and wonky from PR types.

Zubeneschamali

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Will it make a difference? Too late methinks, the momentum appears to be with Trump.

Nah, the whole fuss is too late. Trump is too far behind, early voting in Florida has probably buried him already.

Mr.Micro

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Nah, the whole fuss is too late. Trump is too far behind, early voting in Florida has probably buried him already.

I hope you are right. He is truly a nightmare and unleashing him on the world would have disasterous consequences for us all, IMO.

Quin_Dub

I think Clinton has too much of an Electoral College lead for Trump to make up...

He may close the popular vote gap but Clinton still has a solid line to 285+ Electoral college votes..

RCP has her on 263 solid EC votes with Trump on 164 - She only need to close out 1 of the 9 "Toss-up" states whereas Trump needs every single one..

The real impact of this is likely that Trump will get close enough on the popular vote for his "rigged election" tripe to gain traction.

Expect Clinton to win but Trump to refuse to concede and spend the next several weeks at least failing around the media about how he was robbed etc. etc.

RobertKK

Seems to be a lot of conspiracy theories around these parts. The strange thing is when it comes to Hillary's emails it is dismissed by some, but Trump has a secure connection to Russia, maybe he does but some who dismiss the emails choose to believe that, people here do not apply the same standards when it comes to conspiracy to both Clinton and Trump.
It is believe the conspiracy that suits which affects credibility of arguments.

frostyjacks

Michelle Obama has scrubbed her Twitter account of any Hillary tweets. Interesting. Does she know something is about to go down?

Brian?

Boulevardier wrote: »

I think that the Clinton campaign is an instance of where some simple changes of visual style would instil greater confidence in the candidate.

First, Hillary should lose the ridiculous 1970s glamorous granny trouser suit. Secondly, she should stop dancing onto the podium. Thirdly, she should drop that silly pretence of greeting a friend of hers in the audience. We all know there is no-one there.

Hillary should appear in a dingified, statesmanlike dress and wear a serious expression to match.

A bit of dignitas and gravitas would go a long way.

Trump may be a lot of things, but at least he has reasonable campaign dress sense.

Trump wears a dark suit, a white shirt and a solid red or blue tie to everything. It is pure sexism to criticise Hillarys dress sense and praise Trumps. He dresses like about 100,000,000 men do every day.

Wanderer78

Mr.Micro wrote:

I hope you are right. He is truly a nightmare and unleashing him on the world would have disasterous consequences for us all, IMO.

Good point, but she's not far behind him, a truly dreadful campaign

RobertKK

frostyjacks wrote: »

Michelle Obama has scrubbed her Twitter account of any Hillary tweets. Interesting. Does she know something is about to go down?

It is the same with Facebook, strange.

gosplan

RobertKK wrote: »

Seems to be a lot of conspiracy theories around these parts. The strange thing is when it comes to Hillary's emails it is dismissed by some, but Trump has a secure connection to Russia, maybe he does but some who dismiss the emails choose to believe that, people here do not apply the same standards when it comes to conspiracy to both Clinton and Trump.
It is believe the conspiracy that suits which affects credibility of arguments.

Some people do.

But you're right, critical thinking died at some point in this election.

Whatever pushes your agenda is solid cast iron fact. I think the Trump camp have been more guilty of embracing falsities but both sides are guilty. Saying 'a server' exists is like saying 'a bunch of e-mails' exist.

But then the loons on one side say 'but the FBI wouldn't go out on a limb unless there was a smoking gun in there - she's going to jail!!!!' and the loons on the other day 'the server is the secret communication to Putin'.

Zubeneschamali

RobertKK wrote: »

It is the same with Facebook, strange.

The Obamas are getting ready for the transition - in theory that FLOTUS account could belong to Melania Trump come inauguration day. Stuff which is not deleted from @FLOTUS will be archived - no need for campaign chatter to be archived, they are looking at legacies. Michelle Obama will want the archived material to be about her priorities, not Hillary.

When Hillary wins, there won't be a FLOTUS, so the account will die.

RobertKK

gosplan wrote: »

Some people do.

But you're right, critical thinking died at some point in this election.

Whatever pushes your agenda is solid cast iron fact. I think the Trump camp have been more guilty of embracing falsities but both sides are guilty. Saying 'a server' exists is like saying 'a bunch of e-mails' exist.

But then the loons on one side say 'but the FBI wouldn't go out on a limb unless there was a smoking gun in there - she's going to jail!!!!' and the loons on the other day 'the server is the secret communication to Putin'.

At the moment there is no media really pushing the Trump is Russia's candidate.
There is something a bit more concrete on Hillary's emails.

It really is a just a big mess the USA have gotten themselves into and that is not a conspiracy.
If it was a TV program on Sky Atlantic or Netflix, before this election, one would say 'yeah right' good entertainment but it is not the real world.
Things are so crazy now, that it probably helps feed conspiracy theories as the unbelievable is reality and then one thinks 'what else could be reality rather than fiction,'

Christy42

RobertKK wrote: »

Seems to be a lot of conspiracy theories around these parts. The strange thing is when it comes to Hillary's emails it is dismissed by some, but Trump has a secure connection to Russia, maybe he does but some who dismiss the emails choose to believe that, people here do not apply the same standards when it comes to conspiracy to both Clinton and Trump.
It is believe the conspiracy that suits which affects credibility of arguments.

You are right that it should not be taken as fact (which the original article does explicitly stated btw but posters have left out).

You seemed very sure that those emails weren't a conspiracy theory a day or two ago though...

RobertKK

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The Obamas are getting ready for the transition - in theory that FLOTUS account could belong to Melania Trump come inauguration day. Stuff which is not deleted from @FLOTUS will be archived - no need for campaign chatter to be archived, they are looking at legacies. Michelle Obama will want the archived material to be about her priorities, not Hillary.

When Hillary wins, there won't be a FLOTUS, so the account will die.

Whoever wins next week is President elect, but not the president or the first lady/man until the President is sworn in.
There is no reason to do it right now.

RobertKK

Christy42 wrote: »

You are right that it should not be taken as fact (which the original article does explicitly stated btw but posters have left out).

You seemed very sure that those emails weren't a conspiracy theory a day or two ago though...

The information about the emails is stronger than the Trump is a Russian puppet.

Zubeneschamali

RobertKK wrote: »

There is no reason to do it right now.

No reason not to, either.

RobertKK

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No reason not to, either.

It was Michelle Obama's personal twitter and Facebook account, she is still using the @FLOTUS account, I don't look at those accounts for the record, but the claims are all the pro-Hillary tweets have been deleted.

mrkiscool2

fivethirtyeight is now predicting a win for Trump in Florida and Pennsylvania is a swing state. The last week has been weird.

rossie1977

mrkiscool2 wrote: »

fivethirtyeight is now predicting a win for Trump in Florida and Pennsylvania is a swing state. The last week has been weird.

Still giving edge to Clinton in Florida

Pennsylvania was always a swing state in this election. Without Pittsburgh and Philly Pennsylvania is probably a red state given how much of the state outside the big two urban metros is rural and deeply religious

Trump had to convince enough in the big two to vote for him, however that looks unlikely at this stage

K-9

RobertKK wrote: »

Seems to be a lot of conspiracy theories around these parts. The strange thing is when it comes to Hillary's emails it is dismissed by some, but Trump has a secure connection to Russia, maybe he does but some who dismiss the emails choose to believe that, people here do not apply the same standards when it comes to conspiracy to both Clinton and Trump.
It is believe the conspiracy that suits which affects credibility of arguments.

If anybody has ever read a John LeCarre novel they'd know these private security firms are dodgy!

Seriously, God knows what there agenda is and then you've Putin and his KGB background etc.

I wouldn't trust either side as far as I could throw them.

m1ck007

BBC reporting trump ahead in latest polls now.

K-9

Iceboy wrote: »

It is 100% censorship, google is also heavily involved



http://redalertpolitics.com/2016/10/31/twitter-blocks-hillaryforprison-trend-users-just-tricked-twitter-worked/#QR1RTj9o5ldR28Gz.99

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFxFRqNmXKg

Ah here, if it was censorship they wouldn't let anything Hillary related trend, miss spelling or not.

Facebook has a bit if form in this regard though.

mrkiscool2

rossie1977 wrote: »

Still giving edge to Clinton in Florida

Pennsylvania was always a swing state in this election. Without Pittsburgh and Philly Pennsylvania is probably a red state given how much of the state outside the big two urban metros is rural and deeply religious

Trump had to convince enough in the big two to vote for him, however that looks unlikely at this stage

Polls plus is giving it to Trump by the way. I'm going off polls plus as it seems to be more accurate about things. And it wasn't look like Trump had a hope in Pennsylvania until this week. Like, he had less than a 10% chance, that's up to around 40 now to take PA.

K-9

mrkiscool2 wrote: »

fivethirtyeight is now predicting a win for Trump in Florida and Pennsylvania is a swing state. The last week has been weird.

Up to a third have already voted in Florida and a couple of other states. I suppose it depends if these are mostly party faithful voting early or up for grabs votes. The Democrats seem to have a better get out the vote campaign than Trump.

TheDoctor

Yeah 538 has given Florida back to Trump

All eyes now go to the latest polls from N. Carolina and Nevada which are still just being held by Clinton.

If they go red in the polls then Clinton can only lose one of Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania.

Trump has the momentum now.

Big last week.

oscarBravo

K-9 wrote: »

If anybody has ever read a John LeCarre novel they'd know these private security firms are dodgy!

There's one name in the Slate article that stood out for me: Paul Vixie. He's one of those people who, when they talk, people who know what's what on the Internet shut up and listen.

So: nothing has been proven. But there's a preponderance of evidence that something deeply shady was going on between a Trump server and a Russian bank, and no convincing explanation for any of it.

It's laughable that Clinton is the one who's criticised for secretiveness. Sure, she may have questions to answer: but with Trump, it's hard to even know what questions to ask.

Billy86

RobertKK wrote: »

The information about the emails is stronger than the Trump is a Russian puppet.

The FBI equally recognise and are seen concerned about both actually. Even if they decided to keep quiet behind closed doors on one while making sure to go public and stay ambiguous on the other.

Billy86

mrkiscool2 wrote: »

fivethirtyeight is now predicting a win for Trump in Florida and Pennsylvania is a swing state. The last week has been weird.

Well that's not true. And in the case of PA, that is extremely not true.

RobertKK

Wikileaks released more Podesta emails.

On the day that it was announced that Hillary Clinton was using a private server for her email account, John Podesta wrote: "...not to sound like Lanny, but we are going to have to dump all those emails so better to do so sooner than later."

Not long after according to the FBI information previously released, BleachBit was used to erase lots of emails within days after that email.
Clinton campaign are claiming it was they should dump the emails on the public and get the news out there.
BleachBit says otherwise.

jobbridge4life

RobertKK wrote: »

Wikileaks released more Podesta emails.

On the day that it was announced that Hillary Clinton was using a private server for her email account, John Podesta wrote: "...not to sound like Lanny, but we are going to have to dump all those emails so better to do so sooner than later."

Not long after according to the FBI information previously released, BleachBit was used to erase lots of emails within days after that email.
Clinton campaign are claiming it was they should dump the emails on the public and get the news out there.
BleachBit says otherwise.

Until they find the following email



credit to @imchriskelly on Twitter

It isn't remotely close in terms of who is manifestly unfit to be President.

mrkiscool2

Billy86 wrote: »

Well that's not true. And in the case of PA, that is extremely not true.

Polls plus, not polls only. And that is more able to predict what will happen than polls only will. So, look up polls plus and check back

johnp001

Another bad day on the US stock market again after a very bad week is not what Clinton would have been hoping for.

Black Swan

mrkiscool2 wrote: »

fivethirtyeight is now predicting a win for Trump in Florida and Pennsylvania is a swing state. The last week has been weird.

Florida has been a close race for months now between Clinton and Trump, but firewall Pennsylvania looks good for Clinton this close to 8 November 2016.

At this moment FiveThirtyEight forecast shows Pennsylvania 81.0% Clinton and 19.0% Trump for their polls-only model, and Clinton 80.0% and Trump 20% for their polls-plus model, with 10 different polls all led by Clinton ranging from +2 to +9 adjusted leader. Note that it changes quite frequently.

RCPs list of Pennsylvania polls shows Clinton leading in the last 34 polls with a spread of ranging from +1 to +13 points since the Suffolk University poll taken 25 to 27 July 2016.

RobertKK

jobbridge4life wrote: »

Until they find the following email



credit to @imchriskelly on Twitter

It isn't remotely close in terms of who is manifestly unfit to be President.

Neither are fit to be president, but one of these people will be, the winner will be the party who loses.

4068ac1elhodqr

johnp001 wrote: »

Another bad day on the US stock market again after a very bad week is not what Clinton would have been hoping for.

True, the S&P500 is down, and if you have any Peso left over from that holiday in Cancun now might be a time to dump them (19.20 and Northwards) before the brickies get to work on the wall.

Black Swan

johnp001 wrote: »

Another bad day on the US stock market again after a very bad week is not what Clinton would have been hoping for.

Just checked the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1 Nov 3:52 PM EDT) and it's at 18,032.37, which has shown some stagnancy during this year fluctuating about the 18s for months, but in the long run has been quite impressive since a low of below 7,000 December 2008 at the bottom of the Great Recession. Methinks the 18s DJI is overpriced and due for a minor correction, which is typical as it historically cycles. If that correction occurs before 8 November 2016, that might hurt the Democrats, but if not, then methinks the market will have little effect on the presidential election.

4068ac1elhodqr

__

johnp001

Black Swan wrote: »

Just checked the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1 Nov 3:52 PM EDT) and it's at 18,032.37, which has shown some stagnancy during this year fluctuating about the 18s for months, but in the long run has been quite impressive since a low of below 7,000 December 2008 at the bottom of the Great Recession. Methinks the 18s DJI is overpriced and due for a minor correction, which is typical as it historically cycles. If that correction occurs before 8 November 2016, that might hurt the Democrats, but if not, then methinks the market will have little effect on the presidential election.

That is true about the Obama era DJIA performance, but as Accumulator says below it is the July->October movement that apparently correlates with election outcomes (electorates have short memories)

It seems even more relevant this year when the current bond sell off, together with recent stock market weakness and the Federal Reserve's seeming inability to normalise interest rates all lend credibility to Trump's claim about the "artificial stock market" and "big, fat, ugly bubble"

K-9

They used to use an economic index during election campaigns, can't remember the name of it now, but it is no longer used.

Billy86

mrkiscool2 wrote: »

Polls plus, not polls only. And that is more able to predict what will happen than polls only will. So, look up polls plus and check back

Do you have a link to 538s polls plus? Because it doesn't show up anywhere on Google, or on the 538 search engine.

mrkiscool2

Billy86 wrote: »

Do you have a link to 538s polls plus? Because it doesn't show up anywhere on Google, or on the 538 search engine.

Go to the 538 2016 Presidental Election forecast, and on the top right hand corner should be some options, click polls plus instead of polls only and you'll see there predictions based on that

Polo_Mint

Things are really heating up in this election

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLYHu0AG8GI

B_Wayne

mrkiscool2 wrote: »

Polls plus, not polls only. And that is more able to predict what will happen than polls only will. So, look up polls plus and check back

'Polls plus' presently shows a 79% chance of Clinton winning Pennsylvania...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus