2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

Billy86

mrkiscool2 wrote: »

Go to the 538 2016 Presidental Election forecast, and on the top right hand corner should be some options, click polls plus instead of polls only and you'll see there predictions based on that

Cheers there, it does have him ahead in Florida but you must have meant a different state to PA where it still has him getting trounced by nearly 60%?

mrkiscool2

B_Wayne wrote: »

'Polls plus' presently shows a 79% chance of Clinton winning Pennsylvania...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus

Right, but he has still had a massive jump in the last week and 538 have it as a swing state (it's still on her path to victory but nowhere near where it was on that list a while ago). Clinto will most likely still win there but if Trump can do well there it may be a sign of things not going Clinton's way.

But yeah, Florida is the one I really wanted to focus on and that's being predicted for Trump in the polls plus model (and since I've checked back his chances in Florida went up even more)

rossie1977

There was only ever a handful of states up for grabs in this election. The rust belt was there to be won if enough people there bought the message "we are going to bring back your jobs that Mexico and china took".

frostyjacks

I see Hillary is wheeling out that overweight beauty queen again in Florida to talk about some silly words Trump may or may not have said about 20 years ago. Really? Is she still playing that misogynist card? It's clearly not working.

"He has spent a great deal of time demeaning, degrading and assaulting women," she told a crowd in Dade City, Florida.

People in glass houses...

B_Wayne

frostyjacks wrote: »

I see Hillary is wheeling out that overweight beauty queen again in Florida to talk about some silly words Trump may or may not have said about 20 years ago. Really? Is she still playing that misogynist card? It's clearly not working.

"He has spent a great deal of time demeaning, degrading and assaulting women," she told a crowd in Dade City, Florida.

People in glass houses...

What she says about him appears to be pretty accurate. I also think it's pretty awful to make rather nasty jabs about anyone's weight, just because he thinks it's okay to mock a body weight, does not make it okay for you or anyone else to do it. It's petty and nasty.

K-9

frostyjacks wrote: »

I see Hillary is wheeling out that overweight beauty queen again in Florida to talk about some silly words Trump may or may not have said about 20 years ago. Really? Is she still playing that misogynist card? It's clearly not working.

"He has spent a great deal of time demeaning, degrading and assaulting women," she told a crowd in Dade City, Florida.

People in glass houses...

Well it did work as Trump fell 5 or 6 points in the polls!

ECO_Mental

frostyjacks wrote: »

I see Hillary is wheeling out that overweight beauty queen again in Florida to talk about some silly words...

Seriously man that's un cool

BorneTobyWilde

Hillary will sink to any level it takes. Campaigning with Machado, I guess Hillary needs a getaway driver in her corner round about now.

Black Swan

Finnley Quaint Wineglass wrote: »

__

Just looked at S&P Historical Prices for 1 August through 31 October 2016 for the so-called S&P presidential prediction model specified 3 month time period. So if we subtract 1 August 2016 S&P of 2,170.95 from 31 October 2016 S&P of 2,126.15 we get a loss of 44.80, which is tiny (44.80/2170.95x100=2%). We can draw charts all day long that might look impressive to the eye, which Darrell Huff warns us about in his "How to Lie with Statistics," but we are only talking about 45 bucks loss, which is tiny, and could fit within random variations occurring daily, weekly, monthly, and 3-monthly. Furthermore, September historically was typically a downward adjustment month, and having only a net loss of 45 bucks for this 3-month period is tiny, so how does this S&P presidential prediction model handle only 45 bucks difference, if at all, or will this be a coincidental or spurious association that gives statistical correlation an all too cliche bad name, when applied inappropriately?

Now if we apply the "it's the economy stupid" political formula to the 2016 presidential election, "The Dow's all-time closing high was 18,636.52 set on August 15, 2016," which was a highly significant improvement from the Great Recession low of 6,594.44 on March 5, 2009. The Great Recession low for the S&P "was 666, which the S&P 500 touched on Friday afternoon, March 6 2009," which, compared to today's S&P of 2,111.72 (INDEXSP: .INX - Nov 1, 5:27 PM EDT) was quite substantial, and certainly more significant than 45 bucks.

So will the S&P presidential model predict 8 November 2016 based upon a 45 buck net loss over the specified 3-month period, or will the "It's the economy stupid" maxim predict which party administration stays or goes? I guess we shall see in a few days.

frostyjacks

B_Wayne wrote: »

What she says about him appears to be pretty accurate. I also think it's pretty awful to make rather nasty jabs about anyone's weight, just because he thinks it's okay to mock a body weight, does not make it okay for you or anyone else to do it. It's petty and nasty.

It's petty for Hillary to keep banging this drum about non-PC comments Trump made decades ago. Nobody cares. People are more concerned with jobs, the economy, controlling immigration, protecting traditional Christian family values etc. Making America great again, in other words.

Nody

Does anyone want Hilly to win simply so we can move on from this bloody election? With Trump as president we'll spend every day reading the latest stupidity he's spouted, the lawsuit he's involved in (being sued or suing) etc. while at least Hillary would give us a bit of quiet in between the scandals...

TheDoctor

538 now giving North Carolina to Trump

Christy42

frostyjacks wrote: »

protecting traditional Christian family values etc. .

Are you being serious? I am not one for Christian family values but if you want someone to uphold them you can't get further than Donald Trump.

How many wives? I get it is allowed in some churches but it hardly seems appropriate. An English King had to abdicate over this sort of stuff. Extra marital affairs. Never mind the interest he has shown in his own daughter.

4068ac1elhodqr

Black Swan wrote: »

So will the S&P presidential model predict 8 November 2016?

Perhaps, or maybe the Peso at $19.20 will...

Pro Hoc Vice

frostyjacks wrote: »

It's petty for Hillary to keep banging this drum about non-PC comments Trump made decades ago. Nobody cares. People are more concerned with jobs, the economy, controlling immigration, protecting traditional Christian family values etc. Making America great again, in other words.

So grabbing pussy is a typical Christian value! Good to see you think America is not great.

Billy86

frostyjacks wrote: »

I see Hillary is wheeling out that overweight beauty queen

People in glass houses...

Glass houses indeed...







I mean it's pretty obvious what you're trying or looking for, just... Please do try harder in future.

frostyjacks

Christy42 wrote: »

Are you being serious? I am not one for Christian family values but if you want someone to uphold them you can't get further than Donald Trump.

How many wives? I get it is allowed in some churches but it hardly seems appropriate. An English King had to abdicate over this sort of stuff. Extra marital affairs. Never mind the interest he has shown in his own daughter.

I admit, he's not my first choice to lead the clean up if America. But look who's in the opposite corner. How many wives has she had, if the rumours are true? Huma for a start.

Black Swan

TheDoctor wrote: »

538 now giving North Carolina to Trump

9 minutes ago FiveThirtyEight forecast model showed Clinton 51.5% and Trump 48.5% for their polls-only model, and Trump 51.4% and Clinton 48.6% for their polls-plus model, so it appears to be a very tight race today.

B_Wayne

frostyjacks wrote: »

I admit, he's not my first choice to lead the clean up if America. But look who's in the opposite corner. How many wives has she had, if the rumours are true? Huma for a start.

Erm, what are you on about? It seems like you have a pretty weird view of women in general.....

aloyisious

frostyjacks wrote: »

I admit, he's not my first choice to lead the clean up if America. But look who's in the opposite corner. How many wives has she had, if the rumours are true? Huma for a start.

Lol at your attempt to hit below the belt, like Don does. And I thought you were all for maintaining Christian standards here and in the US.

PopePalpatine

frostyjacks wrote: »

I admit, he's not my first choice to lead the clean up if America. But look who's in the opposite corner. How many wives has she had, if the rumours are true? Huma for a start.

So...the sex pest, with actual evidence confirming him as such, is the better choice to "clean up America" (which sounds like the wet dream of a chastity-obsessed serial killer) because of totally baseless allegations that Hillary is a lesbian who's had multiple girlfriends? :pac:

TheDoctor

Black Swan wrote: »

TheDoctor wrote: »

538 now giving North Carolina to Trump

9 minutes ago FiveThirtyEight forecast model showed Clinton 51.5% and Trump 48.5% for their polls-only model, and Trump 51.4% and Clinton 48.6% for their polls-plus model, so it appears to be a very tight race today.

Now cast has Trump ahead, that's the model Nate will put out next Tues as their final prediction.

Black Swan

TheDoctor wrote: »

Now cast has Trump ahead, that's the model Nate will put out next Tues as their final prediction.

Although Nate Silver uses 3 models, the polls-only, polls plus, and now-cast, he is a bit more cautious with his now-cast model. So methinks he will play with his models all the way up to 8 November 2016 before he locks in for history.

briany

They say that Hillary is unlikable and would be unelectable vs. virtually any other candidate the Republicans could have come up with, but Hillary actually won more votes v. Obama in 2008 in terms of the popular vote and she smashed Sanders by about 3 million votes in this year's. Just saying that for someone who is 'the lesser of two evils', she has garnered an impressive vote total against two more charismatic opponents.

Frank Bullitt

This is going to be a mad week in this election.

Hold on tight.

mrkiscool2

Gintonious wrote: »

This is going to be a mad week in this election.

Hold on tight.

For an election that looked over 2 weeks ago with Clinton definitely winning, the fact it's now a single State away from being Trump's according to the Polls Plus 538 model is so weird and sums up this election as a whole.

aloyisious

BBC 2 newsnight talking to Rep from Centre for Politics, University of Virginia, as he's putting the percentage Hillary 75%, Don 25 %. His opinion is that the change in polls (towards Don) is due to republicans hating hillary, rather than liking Don. He's for advising her to ignore mention of the emails, and for both Don and Hillary to stay out of the headlines as being in them causes them both to lose voters. Can't see Hillary going low-profile, the stamina taunt would just roll out again. and Don just loved the limelight.

Akrasia

aloyisious wrote: »

BBC 2 newsnight talking to Rep from Centre for Politics, University of Virginia, as he's putting the percentage Hillary 75%, Don 25 %. His opinion is that the change in polls (towards Don) is due to republicans hating hillary, rather than liking Don. He's for advising her to ignore mention of the emails, and for both Don and Hillary to stay out of the headlines as being in them causes them both to lose voters. Can't see Hillary going low-profile, the stamina taunt would just roll out again. and Don just loved the limelight.

Hillary is able to lie low when she needs to, but Donald is a psychopath who has very poor impulse control. His handlers might be able to babysit him for a week, but those who tried so far have all been fired

FISMA.

There's going to be fireworks on election day!

Seriously, Hillary is planning a victory celebration on the Hudson!

Inquitus

Wisconsin or Minnesota flip and the Electoral College would be a tie, although Nate's models put CO and NV as the 2 most likely states to take Trump over the top.

RobertKK

The press people on Clinton's plane say she has not come to the back of the plane to talk to them since the FBI said they found more emails.

FBI apparently found nothing linking Trump to the Russian government.

Christy42

Inquitus wrote: »

Wisconsin or Minnesota flip and the Electoral College would be a tie, although Nate's models put CO and NV as the 2 most likely states to take Trump over the top.

He seems to think that a few of the red are just as likely to flip back as well. The odds are still put at 69.7% by Nate for a Hillary win.

FISMA.

RobertKK wrote: »

The press people on Clinton's plane say she has not come to the back of the plane to talk to them since the FBI said they found more emails.

She peaked too early. The press pumped her up, probably, to deliver a knockout punch to Trump.

I was wondering why her team would not have played it closer in the closing weeks, playing the under-dog/comeback kid.

Now I think they knew about the emails to come. If you know you're opponent is going to beat you in the long run, best to throw some hay-makers and maybe get the knockout punch.

I think they're over playing Trump up now, to energize her base.

Too little too late.

BorneTobyWilde

http://www.270towin.com/maps/k4vRn

Colorado is tied by recent polls.
New Hampshire also within sights of Trump

BorneTobyWilde

If Trump loses Florida Hillary wins by default, considering Florida makes 80,000 plus new US citizens each year mostly from Hispanic immigrants. It's why she wants to open doors up to everyone, as they will vote democrat when they become US citizen. It's all about votes, she will sell anyone including her country down the river to stay in power. If she could fast track 100,000 plus new US citizens in Florida this week she would.

FISMA.

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

considering Florida makes 80,000 plus new US citizens each year mostly from Hispanic immigrants.

Like Cubans? :pac::pac::pac:

You don't know any Cubans, do you?

The Democrats have waaaay over-played their hand on the hispanic/latino vote.

Anyone that believes there will be a land slide victory in the hispanic/latino community for Clinton probably cannot differentiate between the two.

Such a patriarchal culture will not be giving a landslide victory to Clinton.

As for my Cubans, they know a marxist when they see one. They'll be voting for Trump.

Obama lost Florida for Clinton.

Kennedy lost Cubans for the Democrats.

dark crystal

Looking good for Clinton in this analysis:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Billy86

frostyjacks wrote: »

Michelle Obama has scrubbed her Twitter account of any Hillary tweets. Interesting. Does she know something is about to go down?

And to the shock of basically nobody - FALSE.

http://www.snopes.com/michelle-obama-scrubs-twitter/

Your News Wire didn't provide any evidence that Obama's account had been altered in the days following FBI director Jim Comey's announcement, nor did they point to a single tweet that had been deleted. The claim that the @Flotus account had been "wiped clean of all traces of Hillary" is demonstrably false, as Michelle Obama tweeted that she was "With Her" (i.e., Hillary Clinton) on 29 July 2016:

...

The majority of the content posted to the @FLOTUS account is bipartisan (or at least not overly politicized) in nature. As of this writing, her most recent three tweets were about education, the architecture of the White House, and Halloween. Other than the previously mentioned Tweet, the @Flotus account has rarely been used to talk about the 2016 election.

Your News Wire also falsely claimed that the @MichelleObama account had been "scrubbed all the way back to 2013." Again, the web site provided no evidence to back up their claim or pointed to a single tweet that had been deleted.

https://twitter.com/FLOTUS/status/758867327848816641



For anyone wondering, 'Your News Wire' is ran by Sean Adl-Tabatabai, a protege of sorts of David Icke of 'lizard overlords rule the world' fame, having previously run Icke's official forum and website 'The Peoples Voice'.

Seems legit...

TheOven

rossie1977 wrote: »

There was only ever a handful of states up for grabs in this election. The rust belt was there to be won if enough people there bought the message "we are going to bring back your jobs that Mexico and china took".

The jobs are gone and the only way they are coming back is to be replaced by machines with few jobs left requiring educated people.

Like coal mining, bringing back these jobs is a very short term solution. They need change if they don't want their children in the exact same place.

Inquitus

dark crystal wrote: »

Looking good for Clinton in this analysis:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

30% is a 1 in 3 shot, yes it looks good for Clinton, but a 1 in 3 chance Trump wins is far to high for my liking and as the polls tighten this could get even closer, odds wise.

K-9

Mod:

Jaysus what did this thread turn into?

Up the standard or those responsible will get holidays until the election is over.

mrkiscool2

dark crystal wrote: »

Looking good for Clinton in this analysis:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Actually, it's looking worse for her. Not that it means she will definitely lose, she still is in the front seat for this election, but she is dropping in the polls, losing out in states that would guarantee her wins and is facing a fight to become elected.

She is focusing on Arizona which, while she could win, will most likely stay Republican if polls stay as they are or shift more towards Trump (which is, from the last week, looking likely) while Trump is in Michigan and Wisconsin (known as firewall states due to the fact Hillary needs them to win) to turn them. That gives Trump a chance, especially with Nevada being such a swing state and Trump looking more and more like he is going to take Florida.

Trump is now between 3-4 points down in the race, but he was 7 points down in mid-October. If we can get below 3 points behind, then it becomes tight (enough that it may be a tie) and if he gets below 2 he wins. Far from over and far from looking good for Hillary.

dark crystal

Inquitus wrote: »

30% is a 1 in 3 shot, yes it looks good for Clinton, but a 1 in 3 chance Trump wins is far to high for my liking and as the polls tighten this could get even closer, odds wise.

I just can't see him winning over enough undecideds to swing the amount of votes he needs to topple Hillary in most of the key swing states.

In Nevada, for example, early polling looks good for Clinton:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

I'm still hopeful and I don't think the email story will affect her vote as much as people say it will. I'll take a 70/30 shot any day!

FISMA.

Remember how Loretta Lynch recused herself from duty in deciding whether to indict based on the FBI's investigation after Bubba-TarmaGate?

Now she's trying to shut down the FBI's continuation of the investigation.

Thought she was gone? Well... She didn't really recuse herself because she did not sign of letter of recusal.

I say the two should f€ck off and resign.

Let the FBI's #2 man, Andrew McCabe #2 take the reigns.

... Hold on a tick. Seems Clinton surrogates gave $675,000 to the Senate Campaign of the FBI's Deputy Director's wife.

... No worries, he wasn't #2 during the campaign or investigation. He was #3.

Most importantly, neither showed intent. Ah sure, t'is grand so. Work away lads! Nothing to see here!

Billy86

FISMA, assuming that I read your post correctly because it's not very coherent, please stop blindly believing Trumps lies - https://www.factcheck.org/2016/10/clintons-connection-to-fbi-official/

RobertKK

As people know Utah is a three horse race.

There is a robocall against Evan McMullin by a Trump supporter - William Johnson who is the chairman of the American Freedom party.
In the robocall, he says "Evan has two mommies. His mother is a lesbian, married to another woman. Evan is okay with that."
The robocall goes onto say "Indeed, Evan supports the supreme court ruling legalising gay marriage. Evan is over 40 years old and is not married and doesn't even have a girlfriend."
He finishes by saying "I believe Evan is a closet homosexual".

William Johnson lives in California, and spent $2,000 to ring up to 193,000 households in Utah with that message.

This tactic to me is what is wrong with the world and this and may other elections. An election should be about policy.
Most won't care if his mother is a married lesbian or if Evan is or isn't a closet homosexual, the irony for the Trump supporter is, most people care about things like 'is the person a nice friendly person' or 'what is their temperament like'.
Utah is a very conservative state, but I think decent honest people would not like receiving that robocall, it said more about William Johnson the Trump supporter, than it did about Evan McMullin.

Fact is when questioned about the robocall, Johnson said he doesn't know much about McMullin or McCullin as he called him, and he doesn;t know if he is homosexual or not.
What a very sad individual William Johnson is.

The Trump campaign said they "strongly condemn this rhetoric and these activities of which we have no knowledge of".

aloyisious

RobertKK wrote: »

The press people on Clinton's plane say she has not come to the back of the plane to talk to them since the FBI said they found more emails.

FBI apparently found nothing linking Trump to the Russian government.

Pardon my lol, plus my thinking your last re the FBI is rightly cautious, given the way things are happening.

Black Swan

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

http://www.270towin.com/maps/k4vRn

Colorado is tied by recent polls.

Just moments ago, RCP list of the last 31 Colorado polls going back to the 10 to 13 October NBC News/Wall Steet poll show Clinton ahead of Trump ranging from +1 to +13 spread, except for one Gravis tie on 20-23 October. Other than Gravis, only one polling organisation in the RCP list during this 31 poll time period showed Trump ahead and that was the LA Times/USC polls of 19 to 25 October and 23 to 29 October with Trump leading +1 and +2 respectively.

mrkiscool2

Black Swan wrote: »

Just moments ago, RCP list of the last 31 Colorado polls going back to the 10 to 13 October NBC News/Wall Steet poll show Clinton ahead of Trump ranging from +1 to +13 spread, except for one Gravis tie on 20-23 October. Other than Gravis, only one polling organisation in the RCP list during this 31 poll time period showed Trump ahead and that was the LA Times/USC polls of 19 to 25 October and 23 to 29 October with Trump leading +1 and +2 respectively.

Yeah, 538 have Colarado being a big win for Hillary, even though it is still technically in that range of being a swing state. CNN's most recent poll did have Trump ahead but it was the only one.

Iceboy

Latest UNC poll and also LA Times polls have trump leading Clinton by 5.5 points! Landslide could very well be on the cards here

https://s15.postimg.org/59zzzaqzf/20161102_091921.png