2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

Akrasia

dark crystal wrote: »

I just can't see him winning over enough undecideds to swing the amount of votes he needs to topple Hillary in most of the key swing states.

In Nevada, for example, early polling looks good for Clinton:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

I'm still hopeful and I don't think the email story will affect her vote as much as people say it will. I'll take a 70/30 shot any day!

He doesn't have to turn undecided voters to vote for him, he needs them to not vote for Hillary.

Trump's best chance is to maximise his own turnout while turning Hillaries supporters against her.

The fact that she is so disliked means many of the people who had said that they would be voting for her, may just decide to stay at home.

This is the most negative campaign in living mwmory. When was the last time any policy issues were the main focus?

Jan_de_Bakker

At the end of the day though, I just can't see Hillary voters switching to Trump, I know this FBI case looks really bad on her, but who is going to think: "well I was going to vote for Clinton, but now I'll vote for Trump over this email scandal" -

Just not gonna happen.

Having said all that Trump voters won't change either even after all these recordings - he said himself he could shoot someone on park avenue and his voters will still vote for him.

aloyisious

The NY times has these two stories on page 1 today. No 1 is about two previous FBI investigations this year involving both HRC and DT and how the FBI did not release any info during its work...... http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/02/us/politics/fbi-james-comey-hillary-clinton-donald-trump.html

The 2nd is about low voter turnout...... http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/02/us/politics/black-turnout-falls-in-early-voting-boding-ill-for-hillary-clinton.html

Iceboy

I wonder why Donna deleted this tweet..

Fr Tod Umptious

aloyisious wrote: »

The NY times has these two stories on page 1 today. No 1 is about two previous FBI investigations this year involving both HRC and DT and how the FBI did not release any info during its work...... http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/02/us/politics/fbi-james-comey-hillary-clinton-donald-trump.html

The 2nd is about low voter turnout...... http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/02/us/politics/black-turnout-falls-in-early-voting-boding-ill-for-hillary-clinton.html

Interesting about the decline in black voter turnout.

It has always been my opinion that blacks only turned out in greater numbers in the last two elections because there was a black candidate.

Typical of the racism you see on America really.

Fr Tod Umptious

Jan_de_Bakker wrote: »

At the end of the day though, I just can't see Hillary voters switching to Trump, I know this FBI case looks really bad on her, but who is going to think: "well I was going to vote for Clinton, but now I'll vote for Trump over this email scandal" -

Just not gonna happen.

Having said all that Trump voters won't change either even after all these recordings - he said himself he could shoot someone on park avenue and his voters will still vote for him.

Its not about Hillary votes voting for Trump, its about "hold their nose and vote for Hillary" voters not voting in the first place, while at the same time "anything but Hillary" votets will be more energised

B0jangles

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Interesting about the decline in black voter turnout.

It has always been my opinion that blacks only turned out in greater numbers in the last two elections because there was a black candidate.

Typical of the racism you see on America really.

Please don't ignore the enthusiastic way Republican administrations in multiple states are working to prevent minorites from voting:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/08/opinion/voter-suppression-in-north-carolina.html

Election boards in 23 of the state’s 100 counties have now reduced early voting hours, in some cases to a small fraction of what they were in the 2012 presidential election, according to an analysis by The Raleigh News & Observer. Boards in nine counties voted to eliminate Sunday voting. Both early voting and Sunday voting are used disproportionately by black voters.
While boards in 70 counties voted to expand the number of early-voting hours, the counties that moved to cut hours back account for half of the state’s registered voters. In heavily Democratic Mecklenburg County — the state’s largest, with about one million residents — Republican board members voted to eliminate 238 early-voting hours despite near-unanimous appeals from the public to add more. In 2012, African-Americans in Mecklenburg used early voting at a far higher rate than whites.

From the very article you cite:

In few places are the disadvantages Democrats face more pronounced than in North Carolina. Though a federal court curtailed the Republican-backed law that reduced the number of days of early voting, localities were left to decide how many polling places they would open.

In Guilford County, about an hour’s drive west from the state capital, the population is roughly one-third black. For the first week of in-person early voting there, voters could go only one place to cast a ballot, the Guilford County Courthouse in the county seat, Greensboro. In 2012, there were 16 locations.

Billy86

Iceboy wrote: »

I wonder why Donna deleted this tweet..

Your first problem would be that fact that she didn't delete it.

Where did you even read that she did? I'm just interested to see whose lies are you point blank accepting as truth.

https://twitter.com/donnabrazile/status/751092365973008386

https://mobile.twitter.com/donnabrazile/status/751092365973008386

Fr Tod Umptious

B0jangles wrote: »

Please don't ignore the enthusiastic way Republican administrations in multiple states are working to prevent minorites from voting:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/08/opinion/voter-suppression-in-north-carolina.html




From the very article you cite:

Well aware of all those things.

But I think there will certainly became drop off in black voting because many just voted Obama because he was black.

To argue otherwise is to ignore racism in America.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Black Swan

The presidential race has been tightening up with only 1-week to go, which has been typical with recent past presidential election years at this time in the cycle. FiveThirtyEight has tightened up too, with their polls-only forecast at Clinton 71.2% and Trump 28.8%.

Timberrrrrrrr

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Well aware of all those things.

But I think there will certainly became drop off in black voting because many just voted Obama because he was black.

To argue otherwise is to ignore racism in America.

So if a black person(s) decide not to vote this is racism? Where is your proof that the drop is because both candidates are white? Personally if I lived in the states I wouldn't vote either, does that make me a racist also?

I think you should look up the term racism to try better understand it's meaning

Amerika

Think Paddy Power is now regretting their decision to pay out early for the bets on Clinton?

Zubeneschamali

Amerika wrote: »

Think Paddy Power is now regretting their decision to pay out early for the bets on Clinton?

No - I think she will win with a 3-4% margin in the popular vote.

Fr Tod Umptious

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

So if a black person(s) decide not to vote this is racism? Where is your proof that the drop is because both candidates are white? Personally if I lived in the states I wouldn't vote either, does that make me a racist also?

I think you should look up the term racism to try better understand it's meaning

I'm saying the increase in black voter turn out in 2008 and 2012 was due to black candidate in the field.

I'd expect black turn out this time to be closer to what we saw pre Obama.

Zubeneschamali

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I'd expect black turn out this time to be closer to what we saw pre Obama.

i think it will be a bit better than that - Clinton served in Obama's cabinet, has been endorsed by Obama and Michelle Obama, and has even had prominent Republicans say Clinton would be 4 more years of Obama.

Lower than the turnout for Obama, yes, but not as low as John Kerry or Al Gore.

Black Swan

97% of 450 high school and university student forecasters predict a Hillary Clinton win in a contest sponsored by the American Statistical Association. This 97% was not a probability estimate, rather just a percentage of those that forecast Clinton over Trump. I guess we will see how well these students did in 1-week.

Timberrrrrrrr

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I'm saying the increase in black voter turn out in 2008 and 2012 was due to black candidate in the field.

I'd expect black turn out this time to be closer to what we saw pre Obama.

So how does this equate to your claim of racism?

Black Swan

Does anyone know if Jimmy Fallon, star of Tonight Show, will use his panel of puppies to predict the match-up between Clinton and Trump, just like he did for Super Bowl 50?

Amerika

Black Swan wrote: »

97% of 450 high school and university student forecasters predict a Hillary Clinton win in a contest sponsored by the American Statistical Association. This 97% was not a probability estimate, rather just a percentage of those that forecast Clinton over Trump. I guess we will see how well these students did in 1-week.

I have a brainwashed bleeding-heart liberal kid in high school, with minimal understanding of politics other than the vile left-wing nonsense her teachers spout. She threatened to move out until after the election if I put up my Trump/Pence sign in the front yard. High school students would probably have put Bernie Sanders at 99% chance of a win.

Overheal

Amerika wrote: »

I have a brainwashed bleeding-heart liberal kid in high school, with minimal understanding of politics other than the vile left-wing nonsense her teachers spout. She threatened to move out until after the election if I put up my Trump/Pence sign in the front yard. High school students would probably have put Bernie Sanders at 99% chance of a win.

:rolleyes:

I love this fiction that higher education turns people into democrats or something. Isn't it strange how there are so many college educated people who still vote conservative? Maybe they're all RINOs eh

Black Swan

Amerika wrote: »

I have a brainwashed bleeding-heart liberal kid in high school, with minimal understanding of politics other than the vile left-wing nonsense her teachers spout. She threatened to move out until after the election if I put up my Trump/Pence sign in the front yard. High school students would probably have put Bernie Sanders at 99% chance of a win.

Not sure about Trump education demographics for high school students Amerika, but it's been reported that those with college degrees or higher education (graduate) favour 52% Clinton vs. 29% Trump, one of the largest divides in decades of presidential elections.

RobertKK

Currently momentum is with Trump, and if Trump doesn't suffer anymore significant issues with his campaign, I think he will win.

Early voting according to CNN, show Clinton is currently leading in Nevada, North Carolina and Colorado, while Trump is leading in Florida, Ohio, Utah, Arizona.

The North Carolina figures show black voter numbers are down, younger voter numbers are down, and independent voter numbers are way up.
When Obama won but lost North Carolina it showed him leading in early voting, I am going to call North Carolina for Trump, I don't believe Hillary has been able to motivate the Obama base enough.

The signs from the Clinton camp are negative as they have started to campaign again in states they thought they had wrapped up with campaign funding and campaign trips were pulled from certain states only to be renewed.

It has been claimed the biggest motivator for Republicans to go and vote is not Trump, but the total dislike for the Clintons.
I had this elderly cousin who is now dead but was an American citizen, his daughter had the 3rd highest political position in Connecticut, he was a Republican voter. Anyway he would visit when over and one time he came he went on a rant about the Clintons. It gave me insight into how unpopular the Clintons are with some people. He really really disliked them.
Now in this election, I think when push comes to shove for a lot of people, they just can't vote for a Clinton.
Trump while a terrible choice for the Republicans is going to benefit from his rival being a Clinton and I think the FBI probe into the latest emails discovery will have enough people turn away from Clinton and either not vote, or vote for Trump/someone else.

This has been a strange year and I don't think the winds of change have stopped blowing.

Overheal

RobertKK wrote: »

It has been claimed the biggest motivator for Republicans to go and vote is not Trump, but the total dislike for the Clintons.
I had this elderly cousin who is now dead but was an American citizen, his daughter had the 3rd highest political position in Connecticut, he was a Republican voter. Anyway he would visit when over and one time he came he went on a rant about the Clintons. It gave me insight into how unpopular the Clintons are with some people. He really really disliked them.
Now in this election, I think when push comes to shove for a lot of people, they just can't vote for a Clinton.
Trump while a terrible choice for the Republicans is going to benefit from his rival being a Clinton and I think the FBI probe into the latest emails discovery will have enough people turn away from Clinton and either not vote, or vote for Trump/someone else.

Hmm, something I completely agree with you on.

Had it been Sanders, I think the problem for him would have been the negative connotations of "democratic socialism" that would have scared the bejeezus out of the conservative base.

4068ac1elhodqr

Black Swan wrote: »

97% of 450 high school and university student forecasters predict a Hillary Clinton win in a contest sponsored by the American Statistical Association.

Asking '450 people' out of 330million in a sponsored survey and seeking correlation, is largely meaningless.

I'd be more focused on the daily MXN rate than anything else. Considering a big wall and new NAFTA Agreement is looming, rather than chit-chat around high school lockers.

The MXN said hello to 19.40 early this am, and Mexican equities (EWW) just seen it's biggest outflow (since 2013) on Tuesday.
The iShares 1-3 year Treasury (BOND) ETF was also heavily bought as SHY investors got even more nervous.

Overheal

Finnley Quaint Wineglass wrote: »

Asking '450 people' out of 330million in a sponsored survey and seeking correlation, is largely meaningless.

But one liberal leaning college student who won't stay at home because of a yard sign out of 330 million people and suddenly all college students are communists :cool:

/okay I'm done with that.

Fr Tod Umptious

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

So how does this equate to your claim of racism?

The increase in black voters went up in 2008 and 2012 because a certain amount of black people voted for Obama because he was black, nothing else.

Its like me voting for McCain or Romney because he was white.

BorneTobyWilde

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are also close. Both + 4 average for Clinton and falling
http://www.270towin.com/maps/k44np

Trump can lose Florida if he was to take those two states

Amerika

Black Swan wrote: »

Not sure about Trump education demographics for high school students Amerika, but it's been reported that those with college degrees or higher education (graduate) favour 52% Clinton vs. 29% Trump, one of the largest divides in decades of presidential elections.

College students favor Hillary? Shocked I am (not really since most colleges have increasingly become liberal indoctrination centers).

http://townhall.com/columnists/danieldoherty/2011/11/19/avoiding_leftist_indoctrination_at_american_colleges_and_universities

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Akrasia

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

The increase in black voters went up in 2008 and 2012 because a certain amount of black people voted for Obama because he was black, nothing else.

Its like me voting for McCain or Romney because he was white.

A lot of orange people are voting for Trump who never voted before, i predict a record high orange turnout in this election. Further evidence of a deeply racist American society...

Of course African american voting turnout is inflated by a black candidate who promised change and new opportunities for black people.

This election we have a racist who refused to allow black people rent in his properties, running against an entitled white woman who takes the black vote for granted because shes in the same party as Obama.

Hillary offers nothing to inspire poor minority voters. It's not racist to not want to vote for her.

TheDoctor

6 more days, just 6 more days.........

Black Swan

Amerika wrote: »

College students favor Hillary? Shocked I am (not really since most colleges have increasingly become liberal indoctrination centers).

Overheal wrote: »

I love this fiction that higher education turns people into democrats or something. Isn't it strange how there are so many college educated people who still vote conservative? Maybe they're all RINOs eh

Broad sweeping generalisations about anything generally suffer from spuriousness, and this may apply to the political orientation of most universities, and especially between departments like business and others.

Having said that, I'm an alumni of USC (University of Southern California), where they claim to have more Porsche, Mercedes, and BMWs per parking lot square inch than any other university in America, and host a faculty and 44,000 student body that's generally capitalistic. There are certainly other universities in the nation that "follow the money" like USC Trojans, but I do not know the balance between profits vs people for American universities. The tuition was astronomical, I don't own a car, and I could not have attended USC without scholarships and grants. In terms of the 2016 election, the new USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Tracking Poll has shown Trump leading most of the time, although their fixed n=3,000 original sample, weighting scheme, and analytical model may be problematic. I guess we will see in 1-week if the USC poll was better at presidential forecasting than most of the others?

Fr Tod Umptious

Akrasia wrote: »

A lot of orange people are voting for Trump who never voted before, i predict a record high orange turnout in this election. Further evidence of a deeply racist American society...

Of course African american voting turnout is inflated by a black candidate who promised change and new opportunities for black people.

This election we have a racist who refused to allow black people rent in his properties, running against an entitled white woman who takes the black vote for granted because shes in the same party as Obama.

Hillary offers nothing to inspire poor minority voters. It's not racist to not want to vote for her.

So if some hillbilly guy comes to this stage and is offering change and new opportunity for hillbilly people would poor white southerners be racists for voting for him in their droves instead of his black opponent ?

Amerika

TheDoctor wrote: »

6 more days, just 6 more days.........

...And 1,000 more political phone calls I'll receive. The phone is constantly ringing every evening. I'm actually getting to talk to some of the politicians on the phone, rather than just the standard robo-calls I'm accustomed to. Spoke to US Congressman Charlie Dent the other day. Told him I'm not too happy with him not supporting the GOP ticket.

Amerika

Black Swan wrote: »

Broad sweeping generalisations about anything generally suffer from spuriousness, and this may apply to the political orientation of most universities, and especially between departments like business and others.

Having said that, I'm an alumni of USC (University of Southern California), where they claim to have more Porsche, Mercedes, and BMWs per parking lot square inch than any other university in America, and host a faculty and 44,000 student body that's generally capitalistic. There are certainly other universities in the nation that "follow the money" like USC Trojans, but I do not know the balance between profits vs people for American universities. The tuition was astronomical, I don't own a car, and I could not have attended USC without scholarships and grants. In terms of the 2016 election, the new USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Tracking Poll has shown Trump leading most of the time, although their fixed n=3,000 original sample, weighting scheme, and analytical model may be problematic. I guess we will see in 1-week if the USC poll was better at presidential forecasting than most of the others?

Did those college students buy their own Porsches, Mercedes, and BMWs? Or did they get them from mommy and daddy?

Billy86

Black Swan wrote: »

In terms of the 2016 election, the new USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Tracking Poll has shown Trump leading most of the time, although their fixed n=3,000 original sample, weighting scheme, and analytical model may be problematic. I guess we will see in 1-week if the USC poll was better at presidential forecasting than most of the others?

One hugenflaw in their weighting is that there is one single 19 year old black guy I nchi ago who is voting Trump, and due to how they are weighting demographical breakdowns his input is equal to if I recall, 315 standard participants.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Sofa Spud

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are also close. Both + 4 average for Clinton and falling
http://www.270towin.com/maps/k44np

Trump can lose Florida if he was to take those two states

That's an interesting map to play around with - just filled it in, taking any state that Nate Silver ( http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now ) has Hillary at less than 70% chance to win as as toss-up - Clinton comes out with 273 and Trump at 215, with 50 votes in the toss-up states - NV. NC and FL.

WI and PA are both showing as 77/78% chance for Hillary - Wi only has one poll result since the latest email hoohaa and PA has had none, so it'll be Friday potentially before we can get a better idea of how it will pan out, but it's still a big mountain for Trump to climb....

Black Swan

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

The nebulous FBI director statement about emails a few days ago may or may have been a factor should it have occurred before contest deadline, so who knows for sure? The same could be said for the 7 October 2016 Trump sexual assault tape, and if or not this may have been cause to influence this high school and college student presidential forecasting contest. We can both guess all we like from our armchairs, but without more information from the American Statistical Association regarding this contest they hosted, we don't really know. Maybe someone can research the ASA contest details to clarify, but I don't have time at the moment.

Amerika

Black Swan wrote: »

The nebulous FBI director statement about emails a few days ago may or may have been a factor should it have occurred before contest deadline, so who knows for sure? The same could be said for the 7 October 2016 Trump sexual assault tape, and if or not this may have been cause to influence this high school and college student presidential forecasting contest. We can both guess all we like from our armchairs, but without more information from the American Statistical Association regarding this contest they hosted, we don't really know. Maybe someone can research the ASA contest details to clarify, but I don't have time at the moment.

One thing we tend to forget is Comey told Congress he would provide updates if any new information was obtained. That seems to be what he did.

Black Swan

Finnley Quaint Wineglass wrote: »

Asking '450 people' out of 330million in a sponsored survey and seeking correlation, is largely meaningless.

First of all, the high school and college student exercise was a forecasting contest, NOT a "survey" hosted by the American Statistical Association, so your "450 people out of 330 million" was comparing apples with rocks. To toss out the 450 forecasts would essentially be the same as to toss out forecasts by other sources like FiveThirtyEight, etc., although the level of sophistication for most student forecasts methinks would fall way, way below Nate Silver's forecasts. But who knows for sure, as there may have been a few of those high school and college students that went all out in this American Statistical Association contest and had brilliant forecasting models in an attempt to win the ASA contest. Who knows? You don't know, and I don't know for sure. Once again, maybe someone could take time to research in depth the ASA forecasting contest to clarify what questions may be raised as to the merits that may or may not exist?

johnp001

Amerika wrote: »

One thing we tend to forget is Comey told Congress he would provide updates if any new information was obtained. That seems to be what he did.

Exactly as he explained to his staff on Friday

Read Comey’s letter to FBI employees below.

To all:

This morning I sent a letter to Congress in connection with the Secretary Clinton email investigation. Yesterday, the investigative team briefed me on their recommendation with respect to seeking access to emails that have recently been found in an unrelated case. Because those emails appear to be pertinent to our investigation, I agreed that we should take appropriate steps to obtain and review them.

Of course, we don’t ordinarily tell Congress about ongoing investigations, but here I feel an obligation to do so given that I testified repeatedly in recent months that our investigation was completed. I also think it would be misleading to the American people were we not to supplement the record. At the same time, however, given that we don’t know the significance of this newly discovered collection of emails, I don’t want to create a misleading impression. In trying to strike that balance, in a brief letter and in the middle of an election season, there is significant risk of being misunderstood, but I wanted you to hear directly from me about it.

Jim Comey

This video shows one of the occasions on which Comey testified and the resistance already demonstrated to re-opening the investigation

As Comey stated in July "We would certainly look at any new and substantial information.” and he did not seem to consider any of the scenarios posited by Rep. Smith in this video as fitting that category it is fair to surmise that the Abedin/Weiner information must have been newer and/or more substantial than what Smith describes in the video.

Black Swan

Amerika wrote: »

Did those college students buy their own Porsches, Mercedes, and BMWs? Or did they get them from mommy and daddy?

To answer these questions Amerika, perhaps you could do a survey of the 44,000 USC students enrolled in the 2016-2017 academic year to see if there are relationships between who paid for their cars, whom their parents are voting for (Trump or Clinton), and whom the students are voting for, and maybe throw in a few more variable like party or lack of, and report your findings here?

Timberrrrrrrr

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

The increase in black voters went up in 2008 and 2012 because a certain amount of black people voted for Obama because he was black, nothing else.

Its like me voting for McCain or Romney because he was white.

That's not what i asked

How is not voting for someone considered racist?

You made the claim of racism and I would like you to explain please how choosing not to vote someone is considered racism and where you get your information from that black people won't vote because the candidates are white?

4068ac1elhodqr

Yes BlackSwan I'd dismiss that 'sponsored' 'contest' of '450' outright, in terms of predictive analysis.
Polls, are more often than not 'tools of influence' and often paid for. Media coverage is also usually a one-sided affair.

On the other hand real-world market data is much more relevant. Money walks and talk talks.

e.g. Live Gold prices are up again to pre-Oct prices. along with MXN (fx). Look at The S&P500, EWW flow, BONDs or just global stocks.
Even bookie prices are calling it very close, and not '97%'.




Another separate factor is what will 'Mr Lassange' data-dump over the next few days???

Amerika

Black Swan wrote: »

To answer these questions Amerika, perhaps you could do a survey of the 44,000 USC students enrolled in the 2016-2017 academic year to see if there are relationships between who paid for their cars, whom their parents are voting for (Trump or Clinton), and whom the students are voting for, and maybe throw in a few more variable like party or lack of, and report your findings here?

I'll do that in my spare time (have I ever mentioned the fact that there is 3,000 miles between me and you and your katana is quite comforting at times? ). Do you know where I can get a $5 million grant in order to get a start on it? :P


Seriously though... The point I am trying to make is the relationship of a college student’s financial status is more a factor of their parents situation rather than the student themselves.

Black Swan

Finnley Quaint Wineglass wrote: »

On the other hand real-world market data is much more relevant. Money walks and talk talks.

I've already briefly commented on the comparison of market data and using such as a forecasting alternative earlier in this thread, and the merits of either poll-driven or market-driven forecasts will not be known for this unique 2016 presidential election until after 8 November 2016. Today it's mere armchair speculation by all of us, but there should be numerous empirical studies following the election to suggest what forecasting models had merit.

Amerika

A new powerful ad by Trump that will get a lot of airplay in the final days of the election, and will resonate with a lot of people, especially with all the recent information coming out about Hillary...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vppk3R6eDuU

Probably the best commercial of his, yet.

Overheal

And the news story that will steal the show: Trumps 13 year old rape victim, Jane Doe, scheduled to break her silence

http://lawnewz.com/high-profile/breaking-woman-who-sued-trump-for-allegedly-raping-her-when-she-was-13-to-speak-out/

The complaint alleges that billionaire convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein had a woman pick up teenage girls for his famous parties, and that one of these girls was “Jane.” Another witness, “Tiffany,” who also provided an affidavit in the lawsuit, said she witnessed Trump and Epstein rape the plaintiff several times. Trump has repeatedly denied the allegations.