2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

Overheal

TheDoctor wrote: »

Assange is so full of **** its embarrassing to listen to at this stage.

Hopefully he will just disappear again next Wed.

He could be right, but he is definitely heavily biased making it difficult to be sure of anything.

Hank Scorpio

Polo_Mint wrote: »

Why dont the Republicans run both Trey Gowdy and Jason Chaffetz as P and VP nominees in elections?

Probably have their hands full with other matters

I would love to see Gowdy run eventually, hard not to respect him and what he stands for.

Sofa Spud

It's been a bit quiet so far today on the poll front - New Hampshire the only battle ground state reporting - showing a tie and the poll gets a B rating from Nate Silver, so looks credible enough. Let's see if Friday afternoon lives up to previous Fridays and provides some meaty new revelation that the commentariat can get stuck into over the weekend....

Sofa Spud

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IC_p4gwS0Qs

Interesting report from MSNBC - pollster that polled early voters in Florida that have already cast their vote, including postal, that has an 8 point margin for Clinton (48-40%), including 28% of registered Republicans voting for her and just 8% of Dems voting for Trump.

3.6m early voters already - had a look online and it looks like the voting population is around 15m, so it's a statistically relevant chunk of the electorate. Interesting....

mrkiscool2

Sofa Spud wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IC_p4gwS0Qs

Interesting report from MSNBC - pollster that polled early voters in Florida that have already cast their vote, including postal, that has an 8 point margin for Clinton (48-40%), including 28% of registered Republicans voting for her and just 8% of Dems voting for Trump.

3.6m early voters already - had a look online and it looks like the voting population is around 15m, so it's a statistically relevant chunk of the electorate. Interesting....

I wouldn't trust anything MSNBC says about Clinton winning and Trump losing as far as I could throw them.

BoJack Horseman

Sofa Spud wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IC_p4gwS0Qs

Interesting report from MSNBC - pollster that polled early voters in Florida that have already cast their vote, including postal, that has an 8 point margin for Clinton (48-40%), including 28% of registered Republicans voting for her and just 8% of Dems voting for Trump.

3.6m early voters already - had a look online and it looks like the voting population is around 15m, so it's a statistically relevant chunk of the electorate. Interesting....

Why on earth are the exit polls released before the polls closed?

All this does is imply that any Floridians thinking of voting for Trump next week are wasting their time cos Hilary has it won.

Inquitus

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Why on earth are the exit polls released before the polls closed?

All this does is imply that any Floridians thinking of voting for Trump next week are wasting their time cos Hilary has it won.

Or Hillary voters don't bother standing in line as she has already won, cuts both ways!

Sofa Spud

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Why on earth are the exit polls released before the polls closed?

All this does is imply that any Floridians thinking of voting for Trump next week are wasting their time cos Hilary has it won.

You will even see some exit polls on election day before the polls are closed... different system

TheDoctor

What are the reason(s) that New Hampshire is less likely to vote Dem than all the states that surround it?

Zubeneschamali

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

All this does is imply that any Floridians thinking of voting for Trump next week are wasting their time cos Hilary has it won.

They have heard this before, since Trump already told them the election is rigged as prep for losing.

BorneTobyWilde

Sofa Spud wrote: »

It's been a bit quiet so far today on the poll front - New Hampshire the only battle ground state reporting - showing a tie and the poll gets a B rating from Nate Silver, so looks credible enough. Let's see if Friday afternoon lives up to previous Fridays and provides some meaty new revelation that the commentariat can get stuck into over the weekend....

Like Trump punching a baby. Trump has looked solid last 2 weeks.
He has head down and concentrating on winning. Hillary is brewing something no doubt, how low will she go is question.

Overheal

TheDoctor wrote: »

What are the reason(s) that New Hampshire is less likely to vote Dem than all the states that surround it?

In the past, New Hampshire has often voted Republican. Between 1856 and 1988, New Hampshire cast its electoral votes for the Democratic presidential ticket six times: Woodrow Wilson (twice), Franklin D. Roosevelt (three times), and Lyndon B. Johnson (once).

Beginning in 1992, New Hampshire became a swing state in both national and local elections. The state supported Democrats Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, John Kerry in 2004, and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. It was the only state in the country to switch from supporting Republican George W. Bush in the 2000 election to supporting his Democratic challenger in the 2004 election, when John Kerry, a senator from neighboring Massachusetts, won the state.

The Democrats dominated elections in New Hampshire in 2006 and 2008. In 2006, Democrats won both congressional seats (electing Carol Shea-Porter in the 1st district and Paul Hodes in the 2nd district), re-elected Governor John Lynch, and gained a majority on the Executive Council and in both houses of the legislature for the first time since 1911. Democrats had not held both the legislature and the governorship since 1874.[60] Neither U.S. Senate seat was up for a vote in 2006. In 2008, Democrats retained their majorities, governorship, and Congressional seats; and former governor Jeanne Shaheen defeated incumbent Republican John E. Sununu for the U.S. Senate in a rematch of the 2002 contest.

The 2008 elections resulted in women holding a majority, 13 of the 24 seats, in the New Hampshire Senate, a first for any legislative body in the United States.[61]

In the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans made historic gains in New Hampshire, capturing veto-proof majorities in the state legislature, taking all five seats in the Executive Council, electing a new U.S. senator, Kelly Ayotte, winning both U.S. House seats, and reducing the margin of victory of incumbent Governor John Lynch compared to his 2006 and 2008 landslide wins.

In the 2012 state legislative elections, Democrats took back the New Hampshire House of Representatives and narrowed the Republican majority in the New Hampshire Senate to 13-11.[62] In 2012, New Hampshire became the first state in U.S. history to elect an all-female federal delegation: Democratic Congresswomen Carol Shea-Porter of Congressional District 1 and Ann McLane Kuster of Congressional District 2 will accompany U.S. Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Kelly Ayotte in 2013. Further, the state elected its second female governor: Democrat Maggie Hassan.

In the 2014 elections, Republicans retook the New Hampshire House of Representatives with a 239-160 majority and expanded their majority in the New Hampshire Senate to 14 of the Senate's 24 seats. On the national level, incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen defeated her Republican challenger, Scott Brown. New Hampshire also elected Frank Guinta (R) for its First Congressional District representative and Ann Kuster (D) for its Second Congressional District representative.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire#Politics

Sofa Spud

TheDoctor wrote: »

What are the reason(s) that New Hampshire is less likely to vote Dem than all the states that surround it?

Not sure, but possibly a combination of being a bit more 'traditional' manufacturing based than the states surrounding them, so impacted more by globalisation and therefore more open to Trump's America First spiel and they have a even split of Dems/Republicans registered, so more likely to swing than other states.

Overheal

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Like Trump punching a baby. Trump has looked solid last 2 weeks.
He has head down and concentrating on winning. Hillary is brewing something no doubt, how low will she go is question.

Trump is sticking closely to script since he started swinging back in the polls. As soon as the Comey letter hit (apparently they had prior knowledge of it) Trump kept his mouth shut with regard to anything incendiary, knowing from many past instances it had done him zero good.

http://www.mediaite.com/online/trump-cools-himself-down-at-rally-stay-on-point-donald-stay-on-point/

As he spoke in Florida, he said, “We’ve gotta be nice and cool. Nice and cool. Stay on point, Donald. Stay on point.”

The crowd cheered as he continued, “No sidetracks, Donald. Nice and easy.”

Given how the polls have swung recently, they may be drilling this one into his head.

And someone seems to have taken over his Twitter account as he doesn't seem to be posting himself in it that often in the last few days.

mrkiscool2

TheDoctor wrote: »

What are the reason(s) that New Hampshire is less likely to vote Dem than all the states that surround it?

In all but one election in the last 20 years they have voted for the winner. It is a good indicator of how the election will go nationally usually and is often used by non-US media to show how the election is going.

I didn't answer the actually question because someone already has done so very well!

aloyisious

Overheal wrote: »

Trump is sticking closely to script since he started swinging back in the polls. As soon as the Comey letter hit (apparently they had prior knowledge of it) Trump kept his mouth shut with regard to anything incendiary, knowing from many past instances it had done him zero good.

http://www.mediaite.com/online/trump-cools-himself-down-at-rally-stay-on-point-donald-stay-on-point/

As he spoke in Florida, he said, “We’ve gotta be nice and cool. Nice and cool. Stay on point, Donald. Stay on point.”

The crowd cheered as he continued, “No sidetracks, Donald. Nice and easy.”

Given how the polls have swung recently, they may be drilling this one into his head.

And someone seems to have taken over his Twitter account as he doesn't seem to be posting himself in it that often in the last few days.

I'd hazard a guess the missus is running the show with advice from seasoned people. She certainly seems unshakable.

Overheal

aloyisious wrote: »

I'd hazard a guess the missus is running the show with advice from seasoned people. She certainly seems unshakable.

Melania? Somehow I doubt it. She can't even write a speech.. she can't even ad-lib an interview! Take a look,

https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/788741697194917892?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Brian?

mrkiscool2 wrote: »

I wouldn't trust anything MSNBC says about Clinton winning and Trump losing as far as I could throw them.

Have a think about your bias here for a second. If MSNBC were reporting in an effort to help Hillary they would say nothing. Reporting a lead like this will lower the turnout of Clinton voters.

B0jangles

I don't think this story has been posted before, and after all that has come out I doubt it'll influence anyone very much but even so...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-boasts-of-his-philanthropy-but-his-giving-falls-short-of-his-words/2016/10/29/b3c03106-9ac7-11e6-a0ed-ab0774c1eaa5_story.html

In the fall of 1996, a charity called the Association to Benefit Children held a ribbon-cutting in Manhattan for a new nursery school serving children with AIDS. The bold-faced names took seats up front.

There was then-Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani (R) and former mayor David Dinkins (D). TV stars Frank and Kathie Lee Gifford, who were major donors. And there was a seat saved for Steven Fisher, a developer who had given generously to build the nursery.

Then, all of a sudden, there was Donald Trump.

“Nobody knew he was coming,” said Abigail Disney, another donor sitting on the dais. “There’s this kind of ruckus at the door, and I don’t know what was going on, and in comes Donald Trump. [He] just gets up on the podium and sits down.”

Trump was not a major donor. He was not a donor, period. He’d never given a dollar to the nursery or the Association to Benefit Children, according to Gretchen Buchenholz, the charity’s executive director then and now.

But now he was sitting in Fisher’s seat, next to Giuliani.

“Frank Gifford turned to me and said, ‘Why is he here?’ ” Buchenholz recalled recently. By then, the ceremony had begun. There was nothing to do.

“Just sing past it,” she recalled Gifford telling her.

So they warbled into the first song on the program, “This Little Light of Mine,” alongside Trump and a chorus of children — with a photographer snapping photos, and Trump looking for all the world like an honored donor to the cause.

Afterward, Disney and Buchenholz recalled, Trump left without offering an explanation. Or a donation. Fisher was stuck in the audience. The charity spent months trying to repair its relationship with him.

“I mean, what’s wrong with you, man?” Disney recalled thinking of Trump, when it was over.

He quite literally gatecrashed a charity event for kids with HIV to get himself some media attention and didn't even bother to make a donation.

Donald Trump is a despicable human being.

captbarnacles

Polls and markets that showed an increase of a support for Trump have drifted back to towards Clinton again. Probably as people realised there was nothing behind the latest 'email scandal'.

B0jangles

Oh and Hey, Rudy Giuliani confirmed on TV that the Trump campaign knew about Comey's announcement days or even weeks before it happened.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rudy-giuliani-fbi-clinton-emails_us_581c9e3fe4b0e80b02c93d6b?ij36pfg576k0c6jemi

Rudy Giuliani said Friday that he knew the FBI planned to review more emails tied to Hillary Clinton before a public announcement about the investigation last week, confirming that the agency leaked information to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.

The former New York City mayor and Trump surrogate has recently dropped a series of hints that he knew in advance that the FBI planned to look at emails potentially connected to Clinton’s private server. The agency discovered the messages while investigating former Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.) for allegedly sexting with a minor. (Weiner’s estranged wife, Huma Abedin, is a top aide to Clinton.)

Giuliani has bragged about his close ties to the FBI for months, mentioning in interviews that “outraged FBI agents” have told him they’re frustrated by how the Clinton investigation was handled. And two days before FBI Director James Comey announced that the agency was reviewing the newly uncovered emails, Giuliani teased that Trump’s campaign had “a couple of surprises left.”

“You’ll see, and I think it will be enormously effective,” he said in an interview with Fox News.

All of this has led to suspicion that someone in the FBI is leaking information to Giuliani and the Trump campaign. The Daily Beast’s Wayne Barrett explored those suspicions on Thursday, detailing how Giuliani’s ties to the agency date back to his days as a U.S. attorney in the 1980s.

Giuliani confirmed that notion Friday during an appearance on “Fox & Friends.”

“I did nothing to get it out, I had no role in it,” he said. “Did I hear about it? You’re darn right I heard about it, and I can’t even repeat the language that I heard from the former FBI agents.”

B0jangles

Amerika wrote: »

Not making it up. I guess at this point it boils down to the credibility of the sources in the link. But observing Bret Baier and his level of integrity over many years, I have come to believe he wouldn’t have put it out there unless he found the source to be incredibly credible.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/02/fbi_sources_tell_fox_news_indictment_likely_in_clinton_foundation_case.html

FYI Brett Baier has said he was wrong and mistaken about that:

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/794587593291821056

alastair

B0jangles wrote: »

Oh and Hey, Rudy Giuliani confirmed on TV that the Trump campaign knew about Comey's announcement days or even weeks before it happened.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rudy-giuliani-fbi-clinton-emails_us_581c9e3fe4b0e80b02c93d6b?ij36pfg576k0c6jemi

I'm betting Giuliani knew nothing, and is just bull****ting on this. He's a match for Trump on the blowhard front.

Sofa Spud

B0jangles wrote: »

FYI Brett Baier has said he was wrong and mistaken about that:

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/794587593291821056

In fairness to him, that was a pretty clear retraction, to the point where you feel it was his decision to make it and not an editorial direction to do so...

mrkiscool2

Brian? wrote: »

Have a think about your bias here for a second. If MSNBC were reporting in an effort to help Hillary they would say nothing. Reporting a lead like this will lower the turnout of Clinton voters.

I've never thought as MSNBC being either rational or intelligent enough to even consider thinking this would affect Hillary. From the stuff I have seen involving them through this whole election it has been pro-Hillary, anti-Trump and they have taken great delight in every vile thing Trump said and did. So it doesn't surprise me they have done this really!

PopePalpatine

captbarnacles wrote: »

Polls and markets that showed an increase of a support for Trump have drifted back to towards Clinton again. Probably as people realised there was nothing behind the latest 'email scandal'.

Yep, he was as short as 7/4 some time yesterday, but has since drifted as far as 3/1. Have a look here.

cnocbui

Here is an in depth and very lucid analysis of the whole email saga:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/04/the-real-clinton-email-scandal-is-that-a-bs-story-has-dominated-the-campaign-commentary.html

I find it hard to believe that this topic has taken precedence over all other topics by a wide margin.

blackcard

It will be the end of the political career for whoever loses next week. Trump would probably go back to his business interests, maybe set up a tv station and continue to haunt Hilary. If Hilary loses, you would think that she will not be pursued by the FBI as it may be felt that she is a dead duck, hard to see any role for her in the future. Ironically, a victory for either may be the worst thing that could happen for themselves and their parties.

RobertKK

CNN updated their electoral map to put Hillary at 268 electoral votes as New Hampshire was moved from lean Democrat to toss up.

rossie1977

Chris Christies aides found guilty on all counts regarding the bridgegate scandal http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/04/politics/bridgegate-case-verdict-reached/index.html

While Christie has taken a backseat as being trumps number 2 since the appointment of pence he is still on the campaign trail for trump today

aloyisious

B0jangles wrote: »

Oh and Hey, Rudy Giuliani confirmed on TV that the Trump campaign knew about Comey's announcement days or even weeks before it happened.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rudy-giuliani-fbi-clinton-emails_us_581c9e3fe4b0e80b02c93d6b?ij36pfg576k0c6jemi

Is he just out to damage his pal Trump or want attention by being "pulled" into any congress inquiry into who knew what? He makes it sound like he had one-on-one conversations with the disgusted FBI agents.

osmiumartist

Overheal wrote: »

He could be right

"could"? Care to give us any examples of where he's been wrong?

RobertKK

A poll by Harper polling who have a B polling rating from Nate Silver, has Clinton and Trump tied in Pennsylvania at 46% each.

Another poll not sure how good a poll it is, showed Clinton and Trump tied in Michigan at 44%.

aloyisious

I opened the NY Times to see if it had mention of the latest polls. The Times is probably seen by Don as a part of the HRC campaign, Certainly he see it as been biased against him. I was reading it earlier to see what it said about the electoral campaign in general and saw this: Trump Warns of ‘Constitutional Crisis’ if Clinton Wins. Thinking that it might be a reference to action against HRC after inauguration, either by the Feds, the Congress or by him legally, I popped the link (below) to the item to see what he was talking about and found zilch, nada, nothing at all from Don in it referring to a possible constitutional crisis, not a single quote about anything from Don.

The article instead is totally about how the Republican Party elected members were avoiding contact with and/or mention of Don in respect of campaigning for him, an exception being John H Sununu (retired Gov) who, at Don's rally this morning, passed a comment asking if Hillary was the woman Bill Clinton was referring to when he said he never had sex with this woman (an apparent reference to the Monica Lewinsky affair). I have this image of John H possibly making an excuse on the grounds that "it was locker-room talk" if he's asked about his direct reference to Hillary and Bill.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/05/us/politics/campaign-trump-clinton.html...

B0jangles

aloyisious wrote: »

Is he just out to damage his pal Trump or want attention by being "pulled" into any congress inquiry into who knew what? He makes it sound like he had one-on-one conversations with the disgusted FBI agents.

I haven't yet been able to imagine any scenario where him boasting either truthfully or lying about knowing in advance is of any practical benefit to either Trump or himself, so I'm stumped.

(unless he's a complete and.total idiot of course)

BorneTobyWilde

Trump filling arena in PA with thousands outside listening on speakers.
Hillary fills out a small hall and speaks to 80 people.

BorneTobyWilde

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpl_D637fgA

Hank Scorpio

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Trump filling arena in PA with thousands outside listening on speakers.
Hillary fills out a small hall and speaks to 80 people.

It's insane how many people are there, he said there's 7000 people outside! The entire stadium is full, not one empty seat

BorneTobyWilde

Trump

'' i didn't need to bring J Lo or Jay Z to fill this arena, I'm here on my own, no guitar no piano''

aloyisious

CNN has New Hampshire level pegging, so it has reduced Hilary from 270 to 268 electoral college votes. CNN mentioned at the start of three (3) court decisions on voters (who can or can't) but hasn't gone into detail yet or mentioned the locations. John Sununu's Hilary comment was mentioned but just in passing.

It showed an incident where Obama called a halt to people at the rally booing an elderly Trump supporter, telling them they had to respect the right to free speech, the elderly, the military (the gent was wearing a tunic & headwear) making a very slight reference to how to treat protesters and told them not to boo, but to vote. CNN ran a clip of Don complaining that the cameras didn't cover the protester but kept their focus on Obama.

bajer101

I think it is near time for another Trump revelation. There is huge money behind every major presidential candidate and if the result is in doubt there is no way that they will not use Trump using the "N" word if the only barrier is a $5m penalty.

aloyisious

B0jangles wrote: »

I haven't yet been able to imagine any scenario where him boasting either truthfully or lying about knowing in advance is of any practical benefit to either Trump or himself, so I'm stumped.

(unless he's a complete and.total idiot of course)

I'm lol-ing now, a congressman has asked for a investigation by the inspector general of the DOJ into Giuliani's claims he spoke to and got information from the FBI so Rudy has doubled down on them, saying he never spoke to retired FBI agents.

BorneTobyWilde

43000 thousand watching that live stream too.
I dunno what is going on with polls, you see Hillary talk to 200 people people say she's winning.

Hank Scorpio

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

43000 thousand watching that live stream too.
I dunno what is going on with polls, you see Hillary talk to 200 people people say she's winning.

Was another 80,000 watching on facebook.

osmiumartist

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Trump

'' i didn't need to bring J Lo or Jay Z to fill this arena, I'm here on my own, no guitar no piano''

Do people actually vote for somebody because a rapper performs at their show? Do celebrities make any difference at all? I doubt it myself.

Timberrrrrrrr

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

43000 thousand watching that live stream too.
I dunno what is going on with polls, you see Hillary talk to 200 people people say she's winning.

And yesterday he played to a barn in Florida that was 3/4 empty

RobertKK

At this stage the irony is the Clinton campaign looks to be in bed with very wealthy famous people, given they are used to bring people to the rallies.

One person who Hillary Clinton has not got to campaign for is Taylor Swift who has stayed silent and not backed anyone - which I think is great.
Some of these music stars who are getting involved in politics are like prostitutes for the candidates. They should stick to the music and not be so blind to politicians who in the end favour the rich people who will always bar stupidity have a privileged lives.

Hillary's campaign with rich privileged people is something I find repulsive as these people on stage do not reflect ordinary people. It is not ordinary people advocating people.

Maybe Melania Trump released a video of Donald driving his car with their son Barron in the passenger seat listening to Taylor Swift, because Taylor Swift has not prostituted herself to any political party.

RobertKK

osmiumartist wrote: »

Do people actually vote for somebody because a rapper performs at their show? Do celebrities make any difference at all? I doubt it myself.

A Clinton rally currently on in Cleveland, it is more like a concert with Beyonce and Jay Z.
I think it helps increase the attendance and if you like the music artist you get a free concert.

Personally I think it gives a bad image.

Overheal

RobertKK wrote: »

At this stage the irony is the Clinton campaign looks to be in bed with very wealthy famous people, given they are used to bring people to the rallies.

One person who Hillary Clinton has not got to campaign for is Taylor Swift who has stayed silent and not backed anyone - which I think is great.
Some of these music stars who are getting involved in politics are like prostitutes for the candidates. They should stick to the music and not be so blind to politicians who in the end favour the rich people who will always bar stupidity have a privileged lives.

Hillary's campaign with rich privileged people is something I find repulsive as these people on stage do not reflect ordinary people. It is not ordinary people advocating people.

Maybe Melania Trump released a video of Donald driving his car with their son Barron in the passenger seat listening to Taylor Swift, because Taylor Swift has not prostituted herself to any political party.

I take it you're also repulsed with Kirstie Alley, Richie Incognito, Tom Brady, John Voight, Dennis Rodman, Tula Tequila, Ted Nugent, Mike Tyson, Loretta Lynn, Lou "The Hulk" Ferrigno, Willie Robertson, Stephen Baldwin, Clint Eastwood, Azaleia Banks, Gary Busey, Hulk Hogan, Kid Rock, and other performers?

RobertKK

Susan Sarandon who engaged her brain said she would not vote with her vagina, she said she would not vote for Hillary as she is worried about wars, and has said every neocon is supporting her along with all the press, all the networks, all the newspapers, everyone behind her.
She goes onto say the DNC is so corrupt it is not worthy of our votes. I thought she would have supported Hillary.
Maybe she is voting for Jill Stein as she said Hillary will be bad for the climate too.

Susan does something these other celebrities do not do, they talk rubbish about how great Hillary is, and in my opinion the people who are endorsing her make themselves look stupid, and in reality do not help.

Trump is probably better off he doesn't have celebrities at every rally.