2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

Billy86

Brian? wrote: »

26000 Elephants wrote: »

Florida is key. I think Trump has annoyed enough Latinos (snowbirds will vote at home?) to swing it.

Nate Silver is giving Florida to Trump. I'm not going to argue with him.

They've all flipped back to Clinton in Florida models on 538, but only by a hair - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

gosplan

Sofa Spud wrote: »

Why should he win speaking like that?
It's all platitudes - no substance. It's easy to come up with guff like that - where's the substance? Where's the plan to fix it?

'People are amazing' - great, but where's the substance, where's the plan to improve people's lives? Lowering taxes and eliminating regulations, which is about as detailed as he has been, will fix nothing.
Shouting about how bad Obamacare is and then saying it should be replaced with something better, and that's it, just something better but absolutely no detail or demonstrating any understanding of what might actually be better.
Complained about the mid-east strategy and said he had a plan - when pressed, he would never say and then finally said that his plan would be to ask the Generals that are already in place to come up with a plan in 30 days?!?!

If saying nice things means someone should win the presidency, then I really fear for the US. If all it takes is nice platitudes, and not detailed policy understanding, then the mess they are in is just going to deepen...

You mistake me.

Not e should win - he should not win. It's very important that he doesn't win.

But he COULD have won this easily. His base was mobilised long ago.

More talk like the above and less hate and he'd be winning.

Sofa Spud

gosplan wrote: »

You mistake me.

Not e should win - he should not win. It's very important that he doesn't win.

But he COULD have won this easily. His base was mobilised long ago.

More talk like the above and less hate and he'd be winning.

Ah, ok, so what you're saying is that if Trump was heavy on the platitudes and avoided the insults, the Wall, the muslim ban and Twitter meltdown, he could have won?

Yep, Gosplan, I agree, and that's the scary bit...

Billy86

Clinton edging towards the mid 70s on 538 as of this morning, and still now,in terms of percentage chances of winning.

gosplan

Sofa Spud wrote: »

Ah, ok, so what you're saying is that if Trump was heavy on the platitudes and avoided the insults, the Wall, the muslim ban and Twitter meltdown, he could have won?

Yep, Gosplan, I agree, and that's the scary bit...

Yeah, it's a combination of lack of disclipine and total narcissism.

I hope that should he lose he realises this.

Sofa Spud

gosplan wrote: »

Yeah, it's a combination of lack of disclipine and total narcissism.

I hope that should he lose he realises this.

Yeah, faint hope for that - at best there'll be a begrudging concession speech if Hillary gets the 320+ that a lot of commentators seems to think is possible now and then a Twitter meltdown. If Hillary gets less than 300 there is no telling what he will come out with.

Trump JR was on Morning Joe today and replied to a direct question that Trump will concede if he loses, barring any indications of fraud or irregularities - would love to know what his father's definition of fraud or irregularities is, as it feels like any result other than him winning will be disputed...

Chips Lovell

gosplan wrote: »

I hope that should he lose he realises this.

I'd say if he hadn't realised it by around 1991, there's precious little chance of him ever doing so.

alchemist33

Unfortunately Trump's head is so far up his backside that he believes there is no way he can lose in a fair fight. If he does lose, it has to be because of cheating by somebody else. That's the only way he can reconcile a loss with his own self-image.

TheOven

Sofa Spud wrote: »

Yeah, faint hope for that - at best there'll be a begrudging concession speech if Hillary gets the 320+ that a lot of commentators seems to think is possible now and then a Twitter meltdown. If Hillary gets less than 300 there is no telling what he will come out with.

Trump JR was on Morning Joe today and replied to a direct question that Trump will concede if he loses, barring any indications of fraud or irregularities - would love to know what his father's definition of fraud or irregularities is, as it feels like any result other than him winning will be disputed...

There are two options for them, Trump wins or it is rigged.

Iceboy

Mr.Micro wrote: »

He does not mean a word of it. He is incapable of coherence and decency. The only thing consistent about him is his obnoxiousness.

Cry me a river.

Clinton’s actions speak louder than Trump’s Words: Would You Rather Have Frat room obnoxious Talk or TRESON? Please answer me that question

Clint Eastwood said it best "Everybody’s getting tired of political correctness, kissing up. That’s the kiss-ass generation we’re in right now. We’re really in a p---- generation. Everybody’s walking on eggshells."

Irish_Al

What is Treson? You said it all now lol

Sofa Spud

Iceboy wrote: »

Cry me a river.

Clinton’s actions speak louder than Trump’s Words: Would You Rather Have Frat room obnoxious Talk or TRESON? Please answer me that question

Clint Eastwood said it best "Everybody’s getting tired of political correctness, kissing up. That’s the kiss-ass generation we’re in right now. We’re really in a p---- generation. Everybody’s walking on eggshells."

Treson, or treason - please explain what she did that you believe was treasonous?

Billy86

Iceboy wrote: »

Mr.Micro wrote: »

He does not mean a word of it. He is incapable of coherence and decency. The only thing consistent about him is his obnoxiousness.

Cry me a river.

Clinton s actions speak louder than Trump s Words: Would You Rather Have Frat room obnoxious Talk or TRESON? Please answer me that question

Clint Eastwood said it best "Everybody s getting tired of political correctness, kissing up. That s the kiss-ass generation we re in right now. We re really in a p---- generation. Everybody s walking on eggshells."

We've all seen Trumps actions. You can pretend they don't exist but it doesn't matter to the what, 200mn odd(?) eligible US voters, because they have. Well find out tonight, but it's looking like Clinton has won this due to being less dispicable than Trump, with his history of racism, sexism, probable rape, fraud, misogyny, corruption, repeated business failures and on and on. And not in terms of his words, but his actions. You and other Trump fans can pretend these don't exist and continue to tell yourselves he is utterly infallible all you want, but at the end of the day... It doesn't look like it's going to matter.

And did Clint Eastwood say that 4 years ago while infamously making a prat of himself while shouting at a chair? He's an excellent director, but Trump would consider him nothing more than a celebrity that's not even hot anymore. :pac:

Iceboy

Oh no looks like we have the grammar police out in full force now!

gosplan

Iceboy wrote: »

Cry me a river.

Clinton’s actions speak louder than Trump’s Words: Would You Rather Have Frat room obnoxious Talk or TRESON? Please answer me that question

Clint Eastwood said it best "Everybody’s getting tired of political correctness, kissing up. That’s the kiss-ass generation we’re in right now. We’re really in a p---- generation. Everybody’s walking on eggshells."

Fine, think what you want. We're not arguing who should get elected.

The simple point that Trump's 'frat room obnoxious talk' has driven away Latinos, Africian Americans, Women and College Educated people.

Plus your clear love for Trump has nothing to do with Clinton.

You should just come and and say 'regardless of politics I really just like him and his style' rather than souring all the nonsense you do.

I know it's only the internet but you've been embarrassing yourself for weeks with some of the guff you post as fact here.

Just say 'I love Trump' rather than 'Hillary's a treasonous paedophile'

Iceboy

Billy86 wrote: »

We've all seen Trumps actions. You can pretend they don't exist but it doesn't matter to the what, 200mn odd(?) eligible US voters, because they have. Well find out tonight, but it's looking like Clinton has won this due to being less dispicable than Trump, with his history of racism, sexism, probable rape, fraud, misogyny, corruption, repeated business failures and on and on. And not in terms of his words, but his actions. You and other Trump fans can pretend these don't exist and continue to tell yourselves he is utterly infallible all you want, but at the end of the day... It doesn't look like it's going to matter.

And did Clint Eastwood say that 4 years ago while infamously making a prat of himself while shouting at a chair? He's an excellent director, but Trump would consider him nothing more than a celebrity that's not even hot anymore. :pac:

If you think Trumps actions are worse than Hilarys than you are completely deluded, this is a woman who belongs in jail and is the most corrupt politician in the history of the United States.

I like how you just come to the assumption that Trump is guilty of rape also without a shred of proof

oscarBravo

Iceboy wrote: »

Clinton’s actions speak louder than Trump’s Words: Would You Rather Have Frat room obnoxious Talk or TRESON? Please answer me that question

Treason is pretty bad, alright. Apropos, did we ever get an explanation for why there was a secretive mail server in Trump Tower that only ever communicated with a server in Moscow?

As for obnoxious talk, that's pretty bad too. Especially when it involves bragging about sexual assault.

Clint Eastwood said it best "Everybody’s getting tired of political correctness, kissing up. That’s the kiss-ass generation we’re in right now. We’re really in a p---- generation. Everybody’s walking on eggshells."

Was that before or after he started yelling at empty chairs?

Sofa Spud

Iceboy wrote: »

If you think Trumps actions are worse than Hilarys than you are completely deluded, this is a woman who belongs in jail and is the most corrupt politician in the history of the United States.

I like how you just come to the assumption that Trump is guilty of rape also without a shred of proof

So no explanation then about what she has done that you consider to be treason? (for me, without proof, there's no rape, so lets just stick to what she did that was treason)

Iceboy

gosplan wrote: »

Fine, think what you want. We're not arguing who should get elected.

The simple point that Trump's 'frat room obnoxious talk' has driven away Latinos, Africian Americans, Women and College Educated people.

Plus your clear love for Trump has nothing to do with Clinton.

You should just come and and say 'regardless of politics I really just like him and his style' rather than souring all the nonsense you do.

I know it's only the internet but you've been embarrassing yourself for weeks with some of the guff you post as fact here.

Just say 'I love Trump' rather than 'Hillary's a treasonous paedophile'

I would turn on Trump in a heatbeat if he ever goes back on the promises he has made to the American public or if evidence ever came to light that he is in this for any other reason than trying to save his own country, but I have yet to see this, and that is why he has my full support, think of what this man has had to endure though the last year or more, getting attacked by every media outlet with barage after barage of negative articles, if Trump had done even a tiny fraction of what Hilary has done his campaign would have been dead and buried long long ago. Having to drag his family along with in in an absolute David vs Goliath situation, an outsider against the whole corrupt establishment, putting everything on the line including his own life and family's you have to give the man credit.

Zubeneschamali

Iceboy wrote: »

this is a woman who belongs in jail and is the most corrupt politician in the history of the United States.

I like how you just come to the assumption that Trump is guilty of rape also without a shred of proof

Ow, my head hurts.

TheOven

Iceboy wrote: »

I would turn on Trump in a heatbeat if he ever goes back on the promises he has made to the American public or if evidence ever came to light that he is in this for any other reason than trying to save his own country, but I have yet to see this, and that is why he has my full support, think of what this man has had to endure though the last year or more, getting attacked by every media outlet with barage after barage of negative articles, if Trump had done even a tiny fraction of what Hilary has done his campaign would have been dead and buried long long ago. Having to drag his family along with in in an absolute David vs Goliath situation, an outsider against the whole corrupt establishment, putting everything on the line including his own life and family's you have to give the man credit.

One does not get to be as rich as Trump claims to be while being an outsider. Although it is strange that few if any people he does business with have come out to support him.

gosplan

Iceboy wrote: »

I would turn on Trump in a heatbeat if he ever goes back on the promises he has made to the American public or if evidence ever came to light that he is in this for any other reason than trying to save his own country, but I have yet to see this, and that is why he has my full support, think of what this man has had to endure though the last year or more, getting attacked by every media outlet with barage after barage of negative articles, if Trump had done even a tiny fraction of what Hilary has done his campaign would have been dead and buried long long ago. Having to drag his family along with in in an absolute David vs Goliath situation, an outsider against the whole corrupt establishment, putting everything on the line including his own life and family's you have to give the man credit.

See you're nearly there and then

'Including his own life?'

What???

cnocbui

Iceboy wrote: »

Cry me a river.

Clinton’s actions speak louder than Trump’s Words: Would You Rather Have Frat room obnoxious Talk or TRESON? Please answer me that question

Clint Eastwood said it best "Everybody’s getting tired of political correctness, kissing up. That’s the kiss-ass generation we’re in right now. We’re really in a p---- generation. Everybody’s walking on eggshells."

You shouldn't be mentioning treason unless you are talking about Trump, who many believe has clearly committed it, inviting Russia to subvert the US democratic process, for which he would then provide a substantial reward.

Chips Lovell

Iceboy wrote: »

...this is a woman who belongs in jail and is the most corrupt politician in the history of the United States.

Are you not being quite hyperbolic here? Even if most of the the stuff being alleged about here were true, she'd still be far from the most corrupt US politician in history. There's some stiff competition there.

cnocbui

oscarBravo wrote: »

...Was that before or after he started yelling at empty chairs?

He doesn't just yell at them:

TheDoctor

Good lord

BorneTobyWilde

Funny when they ask people in lines waiting to vote
'' who you voting for, TRUMP ''
''how about you sire, TRUMP ''
''Lets move down the line, How about you ms, who will you vote for, TRUMP ''

It's why it's difficult to believe he has no hope.
Rallies have 20k plus people compared to Clintons 300 .
She needs to hold a free concert and even then can't top a Trump rally.
I guess popular vote will be Trumps but Clinton will win with a lot less actual votes.

Black Swan

Iceboy wrote: »

I like how you just come to the assumption that Trump is guilty of rape also without a shred of proof

Donald Trump is a current defendant for alleged rape of a 13-year old girl and has been ordered to appear in US District Court of New York 16 December 2016 by US District Judge Ronnie Abrams, along with co-defendant Jeffrey Epstein. If he wins the presidential election, odds are Trump will have grounds for a postponement of his court appearance; if not, he is ordered to appear. As for "proof," that will be determined if the case goes to trial by a judge and jury of his peers.

Rjd2

Black Swan wrote: »

Donald Trump is a current defendant for alleged rape of a 13-year old girl and has been ordered to appear in US District Court of New York 16 December 2016 by US District Judge Ronnie Abrams, along with co-defendant Jeffrey Epstein. If he wins the presidential election, odds are Trump will have grounds for a postponement of his court appearance; if not, he is ordered to appear. As for "proof," that will be determined if the case goes to trial by a judge and jury of his peers.

Story looks dead especially if the Guardian are pouring cold water on it,

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/07/donald-trump-sexual-assault-lawsuits-norm-lubow

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3914012/Troubled-woman-history-drug-use-claimed-assaulted-Donald-Trump-Jeffrey-Epstein-sex-party-age-13-FABRICATED-story.html

TheDoctor

All three 538 models have now aligned to the same. Think that may be the final prediction.

BorneTobyWilde

Another interview with a lady, a mom to 3 kids.
She talks and talk complimenting her choice but not revealing, then at end of interview say's I believe ''HE'' will make right changes. So obviously voted for Trump, live CNN

They can't seem to track down a Hillary supporter. I think they truly believed they were talking to one lol.

Brian?

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Another interview with a lady, a mom to 3 kids.
She talks and talk complimenting her choice but not revealing, then at end of interview say's I believe ''HE'' will make right changes. So obviously voted for Trump, live CNN

They can't seem to track down a Hillary supporter. I think they truly believed they were talking to one lol.

What's your point here? You don't even say what state it is.

Billy86

Iceboy wrote: »

Billy86 wrote: »

We've all seen Trumps actions. You can pretend they don't exist but it doesn't matter to the what, 200mn odd(?) eligible US voters, because they have. Well find out tonight, but it's looking like Clinton has won this due to being less dispicable than Trump, with his history of racism, sexism, probable rape, fraud, misogyny, corruption, repeated business failures and on and on. And not in terms of his words, but his actions. You and other Trump fans can pretend these don't exist and continue to tell yourselves he is utterly infallible all you want, but at the end of the day... It doesn't look like it's going to matter.

And did Clint Eastwood say that 4 years ago while infamously making a prat of himself while shouting at a chair? He's an excellent director, but Trump would consider him nothing more than a celebrity that's not even hot anymore. :pac:

If you think Trumps actions are worse than Hilarys than you are completely deluded, this is a woman who belongs in jail and is the most corrupt politician in the history of the United States.

I like how you just come to the assumption that Trump is guilty of rape also without a shred of proof

Like I said, keep pretending he's infallible,and tell hsi ex wife there's not a shred of proof about him raping her. We'll see how much the US population agree with you in 12-15 hours.

Love all the detail you went into on Clinton by the way. "Trump is literally Hitler!" would be a like for like response in terms of in quality of argument. And if your answer to that is link dumps, it is just as easy to do so for Trump also.

Billy86

Iceboy wrote: »

Billy86 wrote: »

We've all seen Trumps actions. You can pretend they don't exist but it doesn't matter to the what, 200mn odd(?) eligible US voters, because they have. Well find out tonight, but it's looking like Clinton has won this due to being less dispicable than Trump, with his history of racism, sexism, probable rape, fraud, misogyny, corruption, repeated business failures and on and on. And not in terms of his words, but his actions. You and other Trump fans can pretend these don't exist and continue to tell yourselves he is utterly infallible all you want, but at the end of the day... It doesn't look like it's going to matter.

And did Clint Eastwood say that 4 years ago while infamously making a prat of himself while shouting at a chair? He's an excellent director, but Trump would consider him nothing more than a celebrity that's not even hot anymore. :pac:

If you think Trumps actions are worse than Hilarys than you are completely deluded, this is a woman who belongs in jail and is the most corrupt politician in the history of the United States.

I like how you just come to the assumption that Trump is guilty of rape also without a shred of proof

Like I said, keep pretending he's infallible,and tell hsi ex wife there's not a shred of proof about him raping her. We'll see how much the US population agree with you in 12-15 hours.

Love all the detail you went into on Clinton by the way. "Trump is literally Hitler!" would be a like for like response in terms of in quality of argument. And if your answer to that is link dumps, it is just as easy to do so for Trump also.

BorneTobyWilde

Brian? wrote: »

What's your point here? You don't even say what state it is.

Virginia I think it was.
I guess my only point is popular vote won't win this.

Mr.Micro

Iceboy wrote: »

Cry me a river.

Clinton’s actions speak louder than Trump’s Words: Would You Rather Have Frat room obnoxious Talk or TRESON? Please answer me that question

Clint Eastwood said it best "Everybody’s getting tired of political correctness, kissing up. That’s the kiss-ass generation we’re in right now. We’re really in a p---- generation. Everybody’s walking on eggshells."

Ah come on. If all Trump said was taken as the way to go in the US, the film "The Purge" would be the norm.

Black Swan

TheDoctor wrote: »

All three 538 models have now aligned to the same. Think that may be the final prediction.

Yes, Nate Silver locks in his models 8 November 2016. That's why the polls-only and now-cast model forecasts were identical with Clinton at 71.4% and Trump at 28.6%. His 3rd polls-plus forecast is a tiny bit higher with Clinton 71.8% and Trump 28.2%. So we shall see how good his forecast(s) were in a day or so.

In one of the FiveThirtyEight narratives they essentially said that Trump MUST win BOTH Pennsylvania and Florida, or game over. Comparatively speaking, Clinton can lose both Ohio and Florida, but still has a good chance to win the EC with 270 plus. Personally, methinks that Clinton MUST win Pennsylvania, and if she doesn't, then all the forecasting models I've seen by several organisations are rubbish, and Trump will win.

What I find incredible in Nate Silver's forecasting models combination is that he now shows Nevada lightly blue with Clinton 58.3% and Trump 41.7% polls only, and polls-plus Clinton 58.9% and Trump 41.1%. There has been early reports of a larger than normal turnout by women and Hispanics in Nevada during early voting, so was this his empirical/statistical model suggesting this Clinton small lead, or just an armchair guesswork nudge by Nate Silver? Once again, we will see in a few hours from now.

BorneTobyWilde

Trump doesn't seem confident of winning Florida, never mentions it when he talks of states he could win. It's vital though.
He has the tone of a defeated man. Maybe it's sinking in that he could win and it's a scary feeling, it should be. He has no experience , yet could find himself in the white house in 24 hours.

Black Swan

Besides Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight forecasts given above, I found a list of forecasts by several organisations (but not all), some of which have been summarized by predicted EC votes below. Except for CNN, which does not cross 270 with toss-ups pending, once a candidate hits 270 of above, game over. If Trump wins, all these organisations will have egg on their faces. I guess we will see in a few hours from now.

Organisation | Clinton | Trump
Sabato/U Virginia | 322 | 216
Assoc Press | 274 | 190
Princeton | 308 | 215
FiveThirtyEight | 272 | 214
CNN* | 268 | 204
Cook | 278 | 197
Rothenberg & | 323 | 197
NBC | 274 | 170
NPR | 274 | 214
Fix | 290 | 209
Jacobson | 274 | 186
ABC | 274 | 188

Black Swan

These above are EC vote forecasts, which are somewhat different from the popular vote (total votes a candidate gets for the nation). Whether or not Clinton wins the 270 EC minimum votes presidency, methinks that she will win the popular vote. Looking at the list of national polls provided by RCP since 1 August 2016 (after July DNC & RNC) to today, there were 118 polls taken. Only 11 polls did Trump lead Clinton, with an additional 7 ties, leaving a net of 100 polls with Clinton leading Trump since the July conventions. Furthermore, 9 of the 11 Trump leads over Clinton were by one polling organisation (USC/LA Times).

*Apologies if my total 118 polls was off by one or two. I'm tired after pulling another all-nighter at my real world job.**

Duck Soup

MSNBC reporting that the Latino early voting in Florida is up 75% on 2012. Not good for Trump.

Zubeneschamali

Black Swan wrote: »

Yes, Nate Silver locks in his models 8 November 2016. That's why the polls-only and now-cast model forecasts were identical with Clinton at 71.4% and Trump at 28.6%. His 3rd polls-plus forecast is a tiny bit higher with Clinton 71.8% and Trump 28.2%. So we shall see how good his forecast(s) were in a day or so.

No, we will never know how good these headline numbers are. 538 says 72% chance. Wang says 99% chance, but admits that a better starting assumption would give 95% from the same numbers. But in the real world, Clinton wins, both models look "right".

It is the state-by-state electoral college numbers that tell which prediction is better.

Brian?

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Virginia I think it was.
I guess my only point is popular vote won't win this.

I think a random selection of voters in a queue is a poor measure of that. Whoever wins the popular vote will win Electoral College as well, an opinion and a prediction.

lillycakes2

I really hope Hillary wins !! She has all the experience and i think she would be amazing !!!

sellasheep

Hon Hillary !

TheOven

http://fusion.net/story/367507/eric-trump-breaks-new-york-law-ballot-selfie/

Eric Trump decided to take a picture of his completed ballot, breaking the law in New York. He is in trouble if the law and order candidate wins. No idea how they can tell if they vote is rigged when they dont even know the laws around it.

B0jangles

https://twitter.com/WallStCynic/status/796029968602034177/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Look at Donald checking that Melania actually voted for him

aloyisious

Iceboy wrote: »

I would turn on Trump in a heatbeat if he ever goes back on the promises he has made to the American public or if evidence ever came to light that he is in this for any other reason than trying to save his own country, but I have yet to see this, and that is why he has my full support, think of what this man has had to endure though the last year or more, getting attacked by every media outlet with barage after barage of negative articles, if Trump had done even a tiny fraction of what Hilary has done his campaign would have been dead and buried long long ago. Having to drag his family along with in in an absolute David vs Goliath situation, an outsider against the whole corrupt establishment, putting everything on the line including his own life and family's you have to give the man credit.

The only reason that he's in the race at all is that part of what you call the whole corrupt establishment selected him as its candidate, unless you are excluding the Republican Party (which dropped him like a hot potato) from the establishment. Remember that he had the support of Fox News (which ain't part of the establishment) before he rowed with it. One reason Don took part in the process was to help himself, so no, I wouldn't give him credit until he accepts the vote outcome without rancour.

rob316

lillycakes2 wrote: »

I really hope Hillary wins !! She has all the experience and i think she would be amazing !!!

Experience yes, amazing? Hell no!

MadYaker

What time will we know the results from Florida?