2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

BorneTobyWilde

Ironically had he not run Ted Cruz would have won this in a landslide against someone like Hillary. So in a way trump is handing it to her if he loses.

The Talking Bread

Its fair to say whoever gets elected will have to have a serious security team for the next 4 years (if they last) and considering the polarised detest for both, there will be some nasty events on the horizon.

RobertKK

46% want more conservative policies according to CNN exit poll.

BorneTobyWilde

captbarnacles wrote: »

woah what just happened? trump went from 7 to 8's in 30 secs

Reacting to people who put money on Hillary. They don't know anything except more and more money is going on Hillary.
That is the trend and people are following it to win some money, but no one truly knows a lot just yet .

TheOven

The Talking Bread wrote: »

Its fair to say whoever gets elected will have to have a serious security team for the next 4 years (if they last) and considering the polarised detest for both, there will be some nasty events on the horizon.

If Obama can survive, anyone can. I'm sure there will be some attempts but Y'allqueda tend to be mostly talk when it comes to actually doing anything with those guns.

BorneTobyWilde

The Talking Bread wrote: »

Its fair to say whoever gets elected will have to have a serious security team for the next 4 years (if they last) and considering the polarised detest for both, there will be some nasty events on the horizon.

Trump has some crazy people out there who think he represents them, he does not though, not at all .

Rjd2

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Reacting to people who put money on Hillary. They don't know anything except more and more money is going on Hillary.
That is the trend and people are following it to win some money, but no one truly knows a lot just yet .

Aye its just bookies covering liabilities nothing else. The lads in Powers etc that is all they are reacting to, lads who think that HC is free money. They have no more knowledge than many here on this election.

Sparks43

Im calling it either deadlocked or a very narrow Trump victory.

I called Brexit early as well :eek:

Sofa Spud

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Ironically had he not run Ted Cruz would have won this in a landslide against someone like Hillary. So in a way trump is handing it to her if he loses.

??
Based on what - he's hated by his own party, not even his daughters like him - he's the one other contender in the primaries that Hillary could have beaten handily. If Kaisich had been the nominee, he could have walked it...

IamtheWalrus

The exit polls at midnight will give accurate result?

The Talking Bread

TheOven wrote: »

If Obama can survive, anyone can. I'm sure there will be some attempts but Y'allqueda tend to be mostly talk when it comes to actually doing anything with those guns.

Not at all. The reaction to Obama being elected was one of the most moderate electoral reactions in decades. (including Clinton). His only problems were that he was far too moderate a POTUS. Left little legacy really.

Akrasia

Sparks43 wrote: »

Im calling it either deadlocked or a very narrow Trump victory.

I called Brexit early as well :eek:

I'm calling it Hillary with at least 50 electoral college votes to spare

The Talking Bread

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Trump has some crazy people out there who think he represents them, he does not though, not at all .

He ain't gonna win but if he did he would also most likely soon face the wrath of some of his most extreme supporters.

Sparks43

Akrasia wrote: »

I'm calling it Hillary with at least 50 electoral college votes to spare

Are you of the opinion that trump loses Florida NC NV MI?

Brian?

Sparks43 wrote: »

Are you of the opinion that trump loses Florida NC NV MI?

Trump loses NV and MI, definitely . NC is trending blue.

BorneTobyWilde

Sofa Spud wrote: »

??
Based on what - he's hated by his own party, not even his daughters like him - he's the one other contender in the primaries that Hillary could have beaten handily. If Kaisich had been the nominee, he could have walked it...

Based on fact he would of won nomination I guess had Trump not ran.
He is clean cut and appealed to the masses. Had Trump came down those stairs last year and not had a go at Mexicans he too could have won.
Looking back it was a huge mistake. It was only in last month that he appealed to them and the black community . He burned those bridges though.

Ronin247

price690 wrote: »

Wasn't the stay campaign for Brexit similarly odds on aswell when polls closed?

I dont think it was that wide. Remain was about 2 / 5 which is nowhere near Hillarys 1 / 6.

Bookies odds are usually a good predictor in American elections but are not infallible because a number of things come into play.....eg. larger bets sway the odds, but they would usually be from richer people, who would tend to be republican, so they cannot be relied on completely.

It is a v e r y wide margin.

Sofa Spud

http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html

They just updated again - annoyingly, they are not giving a percentage of the vote, just the actual vote numbers, but Hillary is still up in all 7 states.

Florida has a serious uplift in voter turnout - they've already well exceeded the total vote in 2012 - and Hillary still has a handy lead.

All the rest are neck and neck, so too early to make any determination, but it does look like she'll carry Florida at least.

NC is not included in this site, which is a pity, but my guess is that it'll look close and then in the end Hillary should exceed 300, possibly 323

Sparks43

Brian? wrote: »

Trump loses NV and MI, definitely . NC is trending blue.

I think we are in for a night of surprises. Im not in anyway a Trump lover or Clinton for that matter so i have no axe to grind.

price690

Brian? wrote: »

Trump loses NV and MI, definitely . NC is trending blue.

Based on what?

I think he will take Nevada personally but I'm not pretending to be sure of it

glued

Trump tried to stop some Latinos votes being counted in Nevada. That's horrendous!

The Talking Bread

price690 wrote: »

Based on what?

I think he will take Nevada personally but I'm not pretending to be sure of it

I think the panic around Trump's team suggesting Democrat bias voting methods and the lawsuit today would suggest they are pretty confident/worried themselves they will lose Nevada.

Itssoeasy

CNN are reporting that the Clinton camp are extremely worried about North Carolina.

Brian?

price690 wrote: »

Based on what?

I think he will take Nevada personally but I'm not pretending to be sure of it

Based on the predictions of Nate Silver. He called 50/50 states correctly in 2012 and 49/50 correct in 2008.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=mobilebar&v=1

26000 Elephants

Clinton has to be happy with the way things are developing in Florida and Nevada.

Brian?

Itssoeasy wrote: »

CNN are reporting that the Clinton camp are extremely worried about North Carolina.

It's really close. She doesn't need it though. There's a decent chance she gets Florida, that's game over.

Sparks43

Brian? wrote: »

Based on the predictions of Nate Silver. He called 50/50 states correctly in 2012 and 49/50 correct in 2008.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=mobilebar&v=1

I have looked at that site more than any other in the last few months and if this was a normal election id be calling Clinton the winner

This is not a normal election however and i just cant escape the feeling that a latent Trump vote exists.

I will say this again though i am not a Trump lover the possibility of a Trump presidency scares the crap out of me

Sofa Spud

Brian? wrote: »

Based on the predictions of Nate Silver. He called 50/50 states correctly in 2012 and 49/50 correct in 2008.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=mobilebar&v=1

Might want to take a look again - he gives it 58.3 - 41.7 to Clinton....

Brian?

Sparks43 wrote: »

I have looked at that site more than any other in the last few months and if this was a normal election id be calling Clinton the winner

This is not a normal election however and i just cant escape the feeling that a latent Trump vote exists.

I will say this again though i am not a Trump lover the possibility of a Trump presidency scares the crap out of me

I don't believe in the silent voter phenomenon, it has never been shown to exist. Most of the election shocks like Brexit were in the polls margin for error.

There is a huge turnout though, that may play into Trump's hands.

RobertKK

A majority of Americans are concerned or scared whoever wins.

Brian?

Sofa Spud wrote: »

Might want to take a look again - he gives it 58.3 - 41.7 to Clinton....

Look at which state?

BorneTobyWilde

Democrats want polls left open beyond the time they close. That is not right either.
If they are down in an area they use local radio to get message out and then the go to courts to keep polls open .

Sparks43

Brian? wrote: »

I don't believe in the silent voter phenomenon, it has never been shown to exist. Most of the election shocks like Brexit were in the polls margin for error.

There is a huge turnout though, that may play into Trump's hands.

That does sound so counter-intuitive though. So much has been said about republican vote suppression.

On the silent voters i may be proved wrong on this and if i am then i will hold my hands up straight away.

Brian?

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Democrats want polls left open beyond the time they close. That is not right either.
If they are down in an area they use local radio to get message out and then the go to courts to keep polls open .

They want to hold them open due to malfunctioning equipment. get a grip.

Sofa Spud

Brian? wrote: »

Look at which state?

Apologies Brian - was speed reading the posts between you and price 690 and I thought you had said Trump will take NV based on 538 - will read more slowly in future...

Overheal

I would gladly keep polls open for a week. Doesn't offend me that more people I disagree with would vote. Everyone should get the chance to vote.

Brian?

Sofa Spud wrote: »

Apologies Brian - was speed reading the posts between you and price 690 and I thought you had said Trump will take NV based on 538 - will read more slowly in future...

No worries.

PopePalpatine

Brian? wrote: »

They want to hold them open due to malfunctioning equipment. get a grip.

B-b-but it's stealing the election for Crooked HillaREEEEEEEEE!

Let's just ignore any instance of the same being done in a pro-Trump precinct...

BorneTobyWilde

Brian? wrote: »

They want to hold them open due to malfunctioning equipment. get a grip.

They need an excuse . Is here malfunctioning equipment , who knows.
Can't just come up with excuses, if it's broken it's broken. Time won't fix that.
Leaving polls open for people to use faulty equipment is no use.

Sparks43

Overheal wrote: »

I would gladly keep polls open for a week. Doesn't offend me that more people I disagree with would vote. Everyone should get the chance to vote.

And between 2 threads and near 17k post this is the closest any post gets to being bang on the money.

Christy42

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

They need an excuse . Is here malfunctioning equipment , who knows.
Can't just come up with excuses, if it's broken it's broken. Time won't fix that.
Leaving polls open for people to use faulty equipment is no use.

Equipment can be fixed or replaced. They have people dotted around to respond to these situations.

Really how do you not see that counterargument coming.

BorneTobyWilde

Overheal wrote: »

I would gladly keep polls open for a week. Doesn't offend me that more people I disagree with would vote. Everyone should get the chance to vote.

I agree. But it's funny that it's in a location that Hillary is losing that they want polls left open. It's funny they are on local radio in same area telling Hillary supports to get down to vote, that they will keep polls open for them.
Coincidence that all that is happening in place they are down and it's same place with ''faulty equipment ''

BorneTobyWilde

Christy42 wrote: »

Equipment can be fixed or replaced. They have people dotted around to respond to these situations.

Really how do you not see that counterargument coming.

As long as it's fair.

learn_more

Feminist being asked on Vincent Brown if a woman being elected president would make much of a difference to your cause.

'Not really', was the reply.

lol

m1ck007

Leave was 5/1 on referendum night

26000 Elephants

Christy42 wrote: »

Equipment can be fixed or replaced. They have people dotted around to respond to these situations.

Really how do you not see that counterargument coming.

Plus, with 10 machines you get a certain throughput, with only 8 working machines throughput is reduced, hence later opening to allow everyone to vote.

Brian?

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

They need an excuse . Is here malfunctioning equipment , who knows.
Can't just come up with excuses, if it's broken it's broken. Time won't fix that.
Leaving polls open for people to use faulty equipment is no use.

You're talking through your hat. The machines shut down so they switched to paper ballots. Slowed things down a bit. Let the people vote and stop cribbing.

K-9

price690 wrote: »

Based on what?

I think he will take Nevada personally but I'm not pretending to be sure of it

NPR were reporting Trump's team had privately more or less conceded Nevada.

K-9

Brian? wrote: »

I don't believe in the silent voter phenomenon, it has never been shown to exist. Most of the election shocks like Brexit were in the polls margin for error.

There is a huge turnout though, that may play into Trump's hands.

There was supposed to be a Bradley effect (think that is the name!) against Obama in 08 and it never really happened.

K-9

Mod:
There are 2 live threads going for election night, best we keep the election night talk to those 2. No point having the same discussion going in 3 threads!