2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

Itssoeasy

Ana Navarro on CNN is just clarifying that she isn't a trump supporter. She even spoke Spanish and it didn't sound complimentary.

Sofa Spud

K-9 wrote: »

NPR were reporting Trump's team had privately more or less conceded Nevada.

Slate are showing the vote in NV as 473k for Hillary and 465k for Trump - 2012 total vote was 990k, so there's still some voting to be done - probably a couple of hours from when the numbers were released and the close of the polls.

Still, it's way to close to call now, but if the Latino vote has increased by as much as is anecdotally being said, then you would have to think that will benefit Hillary.

Atlantic Dawn

Trump swaying between 4/1 and 5/1 on Paddy Power, at 4/1 now.

InTheTrees

K-9 wrote: »

There was supposed to be a Bradley effect (think that is the name!) against Obama in 08 and it never really happened.

If anything I'd expect these "silent" voters to turn out for Hillary, I don't get why people think they'd be for trump? Because they're ashamed to be voting for trump? That doesn't sound like his supporters.

Amazingfun

Fox called Indiana and Kentucky for Trump.......Vermont for Hillary....more coming

Sofa Spud

OK, so first exit polls...

Virginia Clinton leading - no call

Georgia No call - interesting, should be Trump's

Vermont Hillary

South Carolina No call - interesting, should be Trump's

Indiana Trump

Kentucky Trump

So, no real shockers but interesting that 2 blue states are too close to call

Sparks43

Fox call SC and Georgia too close to call.

Think i heard trump cursing from here

26000 Elephants

InTheTrees wrote: »

If anything I'd expect these "silent" voters to turn out for Hillary, I don't get why people think they'd be for trump? Because they're ashamed to be voting for trump? That doesn't sound like his supporters.

Absolutely. Trump supporters feel the need to advocate. If there is a 'silent' vote, it will go against him.

Itssoeasy

Sparks43 wrote: »

Fox call SC and Georgia too close to call.

Think i heard trump cursing from here

Haha.

TheOven

Nothin of interest yet, so far matching 538.

PopePalpatine

K-9 wrote: »

There was supposed to be a Bradley effect (think that is the name!) against Obama in 08 and it never really happened.

I can't help but think of that being cited as a reason for a shock David Duke win when he was running for Senate, that white voters wouldn't admit their support for him. In reality, there was an unexpected surge of black voters who came out to ensure his defeat.

TheDoctor

Georgia exit poll

Trump 48 Clinton 47

K-9

Sofa Spud wrote: »

Slate are showing the vote in NV as 473k for Hillary and 465k for Trump - 2012 total vote was 990k, so there's still some voting to be done - probably a couple of hours from when the numbers were released and the close of the polls.

Still, it's way to close to call now, but if the Latino vote has increased by as much as is anecdotally being said, then you would have to think that will benefit Hillary.

This was yesterdays podcasts. Trump's team thought a 6% difference in early voting was recoverable but it was over 10%.

PopePalpatine

TheDoctor wrote: »

Georgia exit poll

Trump 48 Clinton 47

FiveThirtyEight predicted 49.5/45.5 for Trump, this doesn't bode well for him.

aligator_am

To be honest I think Hilary will win, by hook or crook, however if that happens I wouldn't be surprised if Trump launched a new 3rd party afterwards and tried to bring a large chunk of his supporters with him.

I think a lot of Americans are just so disillusioned with the whole 2 party debacle that I could see a large amount of them going 3rd party at the next election, even if that's not with the possible Trump 3rd party.

Itssoeasy

I know Karl rove has used the whiteboard in other elections but Tim russert did it better IMO. Florida Florida Florida!

captbarnacles

An eyewatering 150m matched on this on betfair now

BOHtox

Where's everyone following this? Any good websites?

Also does anyone have a list of when all the polls close?

TheOven

BOHtox wrote: »

Where's everyone following this? Any good websites?

Also does anyone have a list of when all the polls close?

NBC have a stream on youtube. Seems fine but not sure if they are comparatively good.

Itssoeasy

BOHtox wrote: »

Where's everyone following this? Any good websites?

Also does anyone have a list of when all the polls close?

https://twitter.com/rteradio1/status/796102223935799296

RTE tweeted this graphic earlier giving the times polls close our time tonight.

Christy42

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/

In the feed Carl Bialik reports a big surge in women voters. More bad news early on for Trump. Though oddly there is a county in Kentucky that has never voted Republican (in spite of the rest of the state) that he appears to be winning.

BOHtox

Itssoeasy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rteradio1/status/796102223935799296

RTE tweeted this graphic earlier giving the times polls close our time tonight.

Exactly what I'm looking for. Cheers

RobertKK

The odds are starting to shorten for Trump to win.

It seems the highest rating thing people want is change, which polls show Trump wins on.
Obama promised change and the only change was skin colour.

aligator_am

aligator_am wrote: »

To be honest I think Hilary will win, by hook or crook, however if that happens I wouldn't be surprised if Trump launched a new 3rd party afterwards and tried to bring a large chunk of his supporters with him.

I think a lot of Americans are just so disillusioned with the whole 2 party debacle that I could see a large amount of them going 3rd party at the next election, even if that's not with the possible Trump 3rd party.

He might as well burn stacks of his money.

The only reason he will get votes at all is because he is on the Republican ticket. If he thinks he is personally attractive enough to draw people away from the usual 2 sides, he is completely out of touch.

Brian?

RobertKK wrote: »

The odds are starting to shorten for Trump to win.

It seems the highest rating thing people want is change, which polls show Trump wins on.
Obama promised change and the only change was skin colour.

A woman president isn't a change?

Anyway, these exit polls are a bit of nonsense.

RobertKK

Brian? wrote: »

A woman president isn't a change?

Anyway, these exit polls are a bit of nonsense.

No, it is just a different sex, not different policy.

K-9

Christy42 wrote: »

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/

In the feed Carl Bialik reports a big surge in women voters. More bad news early on for Trump. Though oddly there is a county in Kentucky that has never voted Republican (in spite of the rest of the state) that he appears to be winning.

It could be that NPR's analysis months back holds out:

Clinton is unpopular amongst men, Trump with women to an even higher level!

Trump had to reverse that and it looks like he did nothing during the election to appeal to them.

BorneTobyWilde

Trump leading Florida, Virginia, and Georgia .

BorneTobyWilde

Early

K-9

RobertKK wrote: »

The odds are starting to shorten for Trump to win.

It seems the highest rating thing people want is change, which polls show Trump wins on.
Obama promised change and the only change was skin colour.

Those 37% or whatever wanting change wouldn't be Trump voters, would they?

RobertKK

CNN breaking wind: Senior Trump adviser "It will take a miracle for us to win".

Brian?

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Trump leading Florida, Virginia, and Georgia .

A 60k lead in Florida is decent, but it really depends on which counties have been counted. If Miami is in, Clinton is done in Florida.

RobertKK

K-9 wrote: »

Those 37% or whatever wanting change wouldn't be Trump voters, would they?

About 1/5 are Clinton voters.

Brian?

Wowser! 110k swing in Florida in the last couple of minutes. Clinton now up by 50k.

She's matching Obama's numbers in Florida. That's huge.

BorneTobyWilde

Hillary shoots into lead in Florida, big Suburb came in to shoot her into lead.

TheOven

RobertKK wrote: »

CNN breaking wind: Senior Trump adviser "It will take a miracle for us to win".

First sign of sense from that campaign. Maybe a miracle is possible.

Sparks43

Brian? wrote: »

Wowser! 110k swing in Florida in the last couple of minutes. Clinton now up by 50k.

She's matching Obama's numbers in Florida. That's huge.

Seems to be early vote dumps. If she doesn't get them shes toast

Itssoeasy

RobertKK wrote: »

Brian? wrote: »

A woman president isn't a change?

Anyway, these exit polls are a bit of nonsense.

No, it is just a different sex, not different policy.

So a different sex isn't a change ? Something that has never happened before potentially happening isn't a change ? Ah Robert come on. All politics aside this could potentially be historic. That's a change.

InTheTrees

Brian? wrote: »

A 60k lead in Florida is decent, but it really depends on which counties have been counted. If Miami is in, Clinton is done in Florida.

Large urban centres can be slow to count and do lean democrat.

BorneTobyWilde

Not sure Hillary ran it up enough in Florida, so many rural areas not in yet.

Brian?

Sparks43 wrote: »

Seems to be early vote dumps. If she doesn't get them shes toast

I think you're missing my point a little. She's taking the counties she's expected to take. But more importantly she's matching Obamas numbers in percentages. If that continues over the night in Florida, the election is done.

RobertKK

Well it won't be a Reagan v Mondale election night which must have been boring...I was just a child back then.

Itssoeasy

Fox calling West Virginia for trump.
Clinton has a lead in South Carolina.

Stheno

Trump appears to have won ohio

Brian?

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Not sure Hillary ran it up enough in Florida, so many rural areas not in yet.

If she matches Obamas numbers in 2012, the rural areas won't matter.

BorneTobyWilde

Trump back into lead in Florida
So many rural areas not filled in yet

RobertKK

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So a different sex isn't a change ? Something that has never happened before potentially happening isn't a change ? Ah Robert come on. All politics aside this could potentially be historic. That's a change.

No, as politics should be about policy, not sex.

The fact Hillary is a woman should not even be on the table, it should be policy, if a man votes for a man because he is a man then the problem is with the voter, same if a person votes for Hillary simply because she is a woman.

I always just vote for the person whose policy I like, whether they are male or female.

Sparks43

Brian? wrote: »

I think you're missing my point a little. She's taking the counties she's expected to take. But more importantly she's matching Obamas numbers in percentages. If that continues over the night in Florida, the election is done.

Im giving up predicting

Grabbing another beer and settling in for the rollercoaster

Itssoeasy

Fox are saying Ohio is too close to call lads.

Sparks43

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Fox are saying Ohio is too close to call lads.

Fox are confusing to early and too close to call.