2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

Harry Angstrom

Ladbrokes just gone 1/2 Trump, 6/4 Clinton

bajer101

I don't like this episode of Black Mirror.

The Talking Bread

munsterlegend wrote: »

Getting worried yet?! I really support neither but love election result watching.

Why would I get worried!! Both are very flawed candidates. Where have I conveyed any preference. I am still confidence Clinton will get over the line though

BorneTobyWilde

Gap in Florida closing . Down to 100k

RobertKK

Mitt Romney feeling sick right now, and like his 47% out of touch

Lord TSC

Nabber wrote: »

The Hitler comparison... It belittles the suffering that people suffered under his reign.

Go back to sleep

Maybe. But Trump is an admitted sexual abuser, runs on a platform that is not just openly but proudly xenophobic, has a vice evident who endorses gay conversion therapy, and looks set to win not on any economic or actual policy, but on a foundation of insults and "charisma".

Trump openly wants a dictatorship, and it looks like the American population are happy to give it to him. Can't be trusted with his own Twitter account but about to be given the nuclear codes. As I said, deep sadness...

mrkiscool2

NYT started at 75% for Hillary to win, now 66% for Trump. This is scary.

learn_more

Americans seen that guy on the telly and they though they would vote for him.

Mr.Nice Guy

A super-rich sociopath who has been a friend to the establishment all his life, and who refuses to publish his tax returns, has managed to convince millions of downtrodden Americans that he is the person they need to make society fairer and more accountable. Frightening.

BorneTobyWilde

Virginia back down to 50k votes

RobertKK

Popular vote:

Trump 49%
Clinton 47%

munsterlegend

The Talking Bread wrote: »

Why would I get worried!! Both are very flawed candidates. Where have I conveyed any preference. I am still confidence Clinton will get over the line though

Sorry thought you are in the Clinton camp. I couldn't see Clinton losing 2 hours ago but now Trump has a great chance.

A Primal Nut

RobertKK wrote: »

Trump has shown great political awareness, the way he won the nomination, then campaigning in states that people thought were safe Democrat, like in places like Michigan.

If he was a bit smarter in his attitude towards hispanics (he could have been strong on immigration without insulting hispanics) that could have been the difference for him to win (not saying the majority would have voted for him, but maybe enough to have swung some of the closer swing states).
The sexual assault stuff obviously hit him hard as well. I can't believe how close some of these states are. One less scandal may have been enough to make the difference.

Amazingfun

lol @ all the "scared" comments. Very silly, President Trump will be wonderful, don't worry

RobertKK

CNN breaking news that I broke a while ago about the Dow futures being down 500 points

The Talking Bread

8/1 Trump this morning!! It really is Brexit Mk II isn't it!

Muahahaha

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

5/6 each of two with Ladbrokes.

Trump favourite on Paddy Power now. I put a few quid on him as I had money on him at 5/1 back in February but cashed out for a 40% loss right after the Access Hollywood tapes hit. It looked impossible for him to win at that point but the FBI changed all that in the final 10 days and now he looks like he could pull it off

RobertKK wrote: »

Trump leading in New Hampshire now but buy 404 votes.

Nate Silver 538 looking rather poor at this stage.

538 gives Clinton a 71% chance of winning, Silver looking very silly right now

Sierra Oscar

Lots of people pointing out that Hillary could just about edge Virgina now, but failing to take into account that she needed to be winning this state big - and her 'firewall' states are under serious threat. Trump is making inroads in states where people wrote him off long ago.

BorneTobyWilde

Trump said the polls were wrong
He said the media were biased
He's very clever, as the so called experts are way off so far .

munsterlegend

RobertKK wrote: »

CNN breaking news that I broke a while ago about the Dow futures being down 500 points

Yeah the markets will be very jittery. Looks like polling in elections find it very hard to get accurate figures even in exit polls

Call Me Jimmy

Lotta people cast a cheeky Trump vote!

RobertKK

Amazingfun wrote: »

lol @ all the "scared" comments. Very silly, President Trump will be wonderful, don't worry

They weren't scared of a neocon warmonger that is Hillary Clinton, some people are blind

RobbingBandit

RobertKK wrote: »

CNN breaking news that I broke a while ago about the Dow futures being down 500 points

Asian markets in flux too as will the European too in the morning regardless of who wins this its just economics at play.

Nabber

A Primal Nut wrote: »

If he was a bit smarter in his attitude towards hispanics (he could have been strong on immigration without insulting hispanics) that could have been the difference for him to win (not saying the majority would have voted for him, but maybe enough to have swung some of the closer swing states).
The sexual assault stuff obviously hit him hard as well. I can't believe how close some of these states are. One less scandal may have been enough to make the difference.

His proposal

Republican presidential nominee proposed a six-week maternity leave policy, as well as tax credits for stay-at-home mothers and other child care credits

That was a slap in the face to women and men

BorneTobyWilde

mrkiscool2

Muahahaha wrote: »

538 gives Clinton a 71% chance of winning, Silver looking very silly right now

Down to 55% now but it only takes into account states that have been called along with their pre-election map prediction.

The Talking Bread

munsterlegend wrote: »

Sorry thought you are in the Clinton camp. I couldn't see Clinton losing 2 hours ago but now Trump has a great chance.

I am not in anyone's camp but I am completely anti Trump. But that doesn't necessarily mean I will be celebrating a win for her in anyway. She is not a likeable woman. But she definitely is far more stable. Far more.

derm0j073

RobertKK wrote: »

CNN breaking news that I broke a while ago about the Dow futures being down 500 points

If you're into trading currency buy Pesos.

BorneTobyWilde

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

Bradley Effect

Amazingfun

@Peoples_Pundit 3m3 minutes ago
BREAKING: Broward County finally released and it doesn't look like it's enough to stop @realDonaldTrump in Florida. #ElectionNight

Mr.Nice Guy

Trump is only in this for his ego. If he wins it will be his running mate Pence in control of everything imo: a guy who is sceptical about evolution, and thinks climate change is a hoax, and who knows what else.

Nabber

Florida all but done now 99.2% done and he is 140K ahead

munsterlegend

New York Times now 77% Trump to win.

Harry Angstrom

The Talking Bread wrote: »

8/1 Trump this morning!! It really is Brexit Mk II isn't it!

If you thought Hillary was good value at Evens a while ago, you'll love the 11/4 that's now available....

Brian?

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

Bradley Effect

No it's not. Everything that's happening in the swing states is within the margin of error for the polls.

How many times does need to be explained.

Lord TSC

RobertKK wrote: »

They weren't scared of a neocon warmonger that is Hillary Clinton, some people are blind

Hillary is a horrible candidate, and anyone but Trump, I could understand.

But she's a career politician and would have been safer for women, gays and foreigners. Trump is just a horrific man when it comes to his blatant disrespect for so many groups. It's going to set women's rights, gay rights, ethnic rights back so, so many decades. this was the anti-choice, racist, sexist option.

And again, Trump isn't allowed his own Twitter account, and can't stop complaining about a late night comedy show taking the piss out of him. Skin is waiver thin and if you think he won't "jokingly" look to start censoring anti-Trump media and shows in the next few weeks.... But Hillary is the warmonger?

TheOven

NBC talking about rural voters feeling ignored. All for personal responsibility while wanting the government to help them.

The Talking Bread

Well you reap what you sow! I genuinely am baffled at this!! People will say in hindsight "I called it". But there was no rationale to this sort of response.

Great tv, but frightening also!

TheOven

Brian? wrote: »

No it's not. Everything that's happening in the swing states is within the margin of error for the polls.

How many times does need to be explained.

People still think Brexit polls were wrong. There is no convincing some people.

RobbingBandit

Seeing as a few states have been close so far could recounts be requested or is that gone due to the Florida 2000 debacle?

BorneTobyWilde

Brian? wrote: »

No it's not. Everything that's happening in the swing states is within the margin of error for the polls.

How many times does need to be explained.

How can you say that when polls yesterday had a 86% plus chance of Clinton to win.
Those polls are wrong or people polled lied.

Mr.Micro

The Talking Bread wrote: »

Well you reap what you sow! I genuinely am baffled at this!! People will say in hindsight "I called it". But there was no rationale to this sort of response.

Great tv, but frightening also!

I fear the Americans will get more than they have bargained for with Trump.

Sparks43

Brian? wrote: »

No it's not. Everything that's happening in the swing states is within the margin of error for the polls.

How many times does need to be explained.

I had mentioned the latent Trump vote earlier.

So is it MOE/Bradley effect? My money is on a combination of both

Mr.Nice Guy

BBC's Emily Maitliss:

99% of votes in in Florida and trump is 2 points ahead. Not won yet - but That's a bigger gap than Obama won it with last time.

Christy42

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

How can you say that when polls yesterday had a 86% plus chance of Clinton to win.
Those polls are wrong or people polled lied.

A: they had Hillary below 70% as their final prediction.
B: 14 > 0.

The Talking Bread

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

If you thought Hillary was good value at Evens a while ago, you'll love the 11/4 that's now available....

Not really, the 11/4 is a fair reflection of the fact she is now unlikely to come up. So no value at all. I wouldnt even take 10/1/ Everything has changed the last 20 minutes since results are flying in. At the time I wrote that post, I would still have had HC as favourite personally. Can go only by facts in front of me

Harry Angstrom

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

How can you say that when polls yesterday had a 86% plus chance of Clinton to win.
Those polls are wrong or people polled lied.

Andrew Neil saying pretty much the same thing now on BBC.

BorneTobyWilde

CNN CAN'T SAY IT
But Trump has Florida in next 15 mins

Amazingfun

Lord TSC wrote: »

Hillary is a horrible candidate, and anyone but Trump, I could understand.

But she's a career politician and would have been safer for women, gays and foreigners. Trump is just a horrific man ...... But Hillary is the warmonger?

No she is not safer for anyone.
He is anything but "horrific"--he is a beautiful person much maligned by a vicious media, which is why so many people believe these lies.
And Hillary IS a warmonger. Trump wants peace.

vetinari

What a disaster, we're ending up with a racist sexual predator as president