2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

Jawgap

Walter2016 wrote: »

Irish stock exchange has turned positive, no chnage in dollar or sterling v euro after initial negativity.

Dow future up.

Nasdaq futures down but recovering.


Looks like the markets are now pricing it as a non event

unless you look at gold

vetinari

Walter2016 wrote: »

Irish stock exchange has turned positive, no chnage in dollar or sterling v euro after initial negativity.

Dow future up.

Nasdaq futures down but recovering.


Looks like the markets are now pricing it as a non event

For people like you who can't read, dow futures were down 700 last I checked. Trump is going to be a complete **** up as president.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

It's not ideal, but far from the doomsday all were predicting before. The three biggest issues I'd see are

1) Trumps general disregard for national deficit. America is going to be indebted up to its eyes in 4 years time.

2) Trumps lack of interest in banking regulation. We saw how well that went last time.

3) Trump gets to appoint three supreme court judges. Conservative, Republican policies for all for the foreseeable future, even long after Trump is gone.

1 and 2 have the potential to combine nicely into anothet major recession down the road.

Rubberchikken

nice result. the best man won.

glued

Lord TSC wrote: »

Man literally lived in a solid gold penthouse before he won.

"Man of the normal people" :rolleyes:

Obama, the first Black president, will have to shake hands with a man who was endorsed by the KKK. 2016 is ****ed. Up.

It's not f**cked up. People are sick of having their legitimate political views demonised by the liberal media and politically correct public.

The same thing will happen in Ireland...

Jawgap

vetinari wrote: »

For people like you who can't read, dow futures were down 700 last I checked. Trump is going to be a complete **** up as president.

.....I wonder if he'll keep Yellen and allow her to serve out the rest of her term?

They did spark of each other on a couple of occasions during the campaign.

BoatMad

Lovely Bloke wrote: »

Is it any wonder? Show any kind of support for Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Orban and you immediately get cast as some kind of rabid racist.

The fault for this lies squarely with those people who demonise people who would like to see some kind of immigration control. Wanting to see an Australian-style system introduced to the EU is just not racist, but people who want to see unfettered inward movement, for whatever reason, shout the loudest, cast aspersions and behave disgustingly toward people of a different tack.

all this would be true , if any real solution could be achieved by controlling immigration , the reality is that immigration is not a cause of anything

BoatMad

glued wrote: »

It's not f**cked up. People are sick of having their legitimate political views demonised by the liberal media and politically correct public.

The same thing will happen in Ireland...

great , you mean a massive swing to the hard right , whoo hoo , bring it on. Michael o Leary for Leader

Jawgap

Lovely Bloke wrote: »

Is it any wonder? Show any kind of support for Brexit, Trump, Le Pen, Orban and you immediately get cast as some kind of rabid racist.

The fault for this lies squarely with those people who demonise people who would like to see some kind of immigration control. Wanting to see an Australian-style system introduced to the EU is just not racist, but people who want to see unfettered inward movement, for whatever reason, shout the loudest, cast aspersions and behave disgustingly toward people of a different tack.

Yes, people want immigration control......

......except when it comes to the 'undocumented' Irish :rolleyes:

cnocbui

Jawgap wrote: »

How?

Seriously how?

His speech struck a nice tone, but how is he going to reduce taxes and increase infrastructure spending and maintain fiscal discipline?

The only people who have any money are the US corporations with trillions stashed overseas untaxed and the 0.1 percenters. He is not going to tax those groups. He doesn't believe in tax, he doesn't pay tax.

Dark day. :-(

CFlat

It turns out Trump was right all along, the election was rigged:)

vetinari

To be clear. Trump has no ****ing idea what he'll actually do as president. To repeat, he's a ****ing billionaire claiming to be a champion of white working class people. How the **** do you think that will go? He'll be bored of being president by March. What a ****ing disaster.

Walter2016

vetinari wrote: »

For people like you who can't read, dow futures were down 700 last I checked. Trump is going to be a complete **** up as president.

That was the case a couple of hours ago. Current figures show 200pt drop and improving.

Jawgap

cnocbui wrote: »

The only people who have any money are the US corporations with trillions stashed overseas untaxed and the 0.1 percenters. He is not going to tax those groups. He doesn't believe in tax, he doesn't pay tax.

Dark day. :-(

Well he has form for fraternising with SF, maybe they're going to give him a few of their magic money trees instead of a bowl of Shamrock next March......

seamus

devnull wrote: »

What we're seeing is that the kind of people to vote for Brexit and Trump are shy about saying it publicly.

To be fair, there's all this talk about Brexit being way wrong, when in reality all of the Brexit polls were very close to the final result, and the win/lose odds between them very short in the final week.
In that case, it had been the media calling it as a pretty sure thing on the final day, even though all of the polls they had taken up to then showed it to be a very close thing.

This is something else entirely. The polls were completely wrong.

But then these polls are based off simpler questions and representative calculations. The presidential race isn't a representative democracy. It's barely democracy.

seamus

Walter2016 wrote: »

That was the case a couple of hours ago. Current figures show 200pt drop and improving.

None of the US exchanges have opened yet.

vetinari

And to add to the previous poster. This ****er wasn't even paying tax to begin with. Now he's ****ing president. This is ****ing lunacy.

vetinari

And to add to the previous poster. This ****er wasn't even paying tax to begin with. Now he's ****ing president. This is ****ing lunacy.

vetinari

And to add to the previous poster. This ****er wasn't even paying tax to begin with. Now he's ****ing president. This is ****ing lunacy.

BoatMad

seamus wrote: »

To be fair, there's all this talk about Brexit being way wrong, when in reality all of the Brexit polls were very close to the final result, and the win/lose odds between them very short in the final week.
In that case, it had been the media calling it as a pretty sure thing on the final day, even though all of the polls they had taken up to then showed it to be a very close thing.

This is something else entirely. The polls were completely wrong.

But then these polls are based off simpler questions and representative calculations. The presidential race isn't a representative democracy. It's barely democracy.

the issue of polls is neither or there

cnocbui

I suspect polls are particularly flawed when you have such a stupid system as the electoral college one.

Hank Scorpio

Lord TSC wrote: »

Man literally lived in a solid gold penthouse before he won.

"Man of the normal people" :rolleyes:

Obama, the first Black president, will have to shake hands with a man who was endorsed by the KKK. 2016 is ****ed. Up.

Delusion. How can Trump control if the KKK endorse him? His son said one of there leaders deserves a bullet as soon as that came out.

Meanwhile there's images of Hillary Clinton KISSING one of the KKK leaders.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/eric-trump-on-david-duke/

How can Trump control how rich he was before he ran for the Presidency. Your insults are idiotic.

Nody

cnocbui wrote: »

I suspect polls are particularly flawed when you have such a stupid system as the electoral college one.

But that would go against the fact the likes of 385 managed to get all but one state correct in the previous two elections with their algorithm; there has to be something more in play to cause that much of a difference (and 385 still did have significant margins of errors included in the first place it was still a big difference).

Fr Tod Umptious

cnocbui wrote: »

Never underestimate the stupidity of the American people.

Never underestimated the arrogance of an Irish person.

We three times elected Bertie and FF on the promise of a continued bubble, we are very close to electing the same FF party that ruined us less than a decade ago.

We shunded the parties that dug us out of the whole.

We elect the likes of the Healy Rea's, Wallace, Lowery and many more.

We are in no position to question Americans and how they vote.

seamus

BoatMad wrote: »

the issue of polls is neither or there

I disagree. Polling figures are incredibly influential on voter turnout and sentiment.

Some people will always vote for the underdog. Some people will only vote if it looks like their candidate won't win. And so forth.

Groupthink is incredibly powerful (hey, Trump just got elected; case in point), so polls are in reality another propaganda/campaigning tool that one can use to bolster their chances, if you use them right.

Imagine an election campaign where publishing polls was illegal in the six months running up to it?

BoatMad

Imagine an election campaign where publishing polls was illegal in the six months running up to it?

good idea

cnocbui

Walter2016 wrote: »

That was the case a couple of hours ago. Current figures show 200pt drop and improving.

Markets will be down 30-50% within a week.

cnocbui

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Never underestimated the arrogance of an Irish person.

We three times elected Bertie and FF on the promise of a continued bubble, we are very close to electing the same FF party that ruined us less than a decade ago.

We shunded the parties that dug us out of the whole.

We elect the likes of the Healy Rea's, Wallace, Lowery and many more.

We are in no position to question Americans and how they vote.

I'm an Australian.

BoatMad

cnocbui wrote: »

Markets will be down 30-50% within a week.

naw, dont agree actually . there will be a wobble , but thats all , with Clinton and Trump are pro business so I wouldn't expect too much to change

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

cnocbui

BoatMad wrote: »

naw, dont agree actually . there will be a wobble , but thats all , with Clinton and Trump are pro business so I wouldn't expect too much to change

I sincerely hope you are right and that I am wrong.

Nody

cnocbui wrote: »

Markets will be down 30-50% within a week.

That level of fall would take at least a month or two to happen and normally would take at least 6 months to happen. I expect the recession to come end of 2017 along with a stock market crash (we're overdue one anyway) because the economy has to start tanking.

26000 Elephants

Congrats to Trump. Good game, I have a grudging respect for him now.

As for his acolytes - I still think they are gullible fools who have been swept up on a false tide. Normal service in support of the weatlthy establishment will be resumed following his inauguration - what? You were expecting something else to happen?

On a positive note, after letting trump flounder in the opinion polls a few months into his reign, it will be time to start this

cnocbui

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

While not born into poverty, she didn't inherit from daddy in quite the same way.

seamus

BoatMad wrote: »

naw, dont agree actually . there will be a wobble , but thats all , with Clinton and Trump are pro business so I wouldn't expect too much to change

I'm not sure if being "pro business" is good enough though really. Trump is a terrible businessman in every regard.
I'm not sure the markets will put a lot of stock (pun intended) in his capability.

That said though, it's the other houses who will control most of the domestic policy, so it'll be a good day to be an American oligarch and a bad day to be an average American worker.
Foreign policy is a different matter though. Trump will be a complete disaster on that front, worse than GWB, Reagan, or Nixon, so has the potential to put the value of the dollar in the toilet.

Lovely Bloke

seamus wrote: »

Groupthink is incredibly powerful (hey, Trump just got elected; case in point),

If Clinton had won, in such a tight contest, would you be calling it "groupthink"?

This is exactly the reason people lie about voting for candidates like Trump, they just don't want to have to put up with the snide comments, the sly remarks from the "right-on" people

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

Markets will be down 30-50% within a week.

Cmon

Nody

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

You mean beyond the fact she did not inherit her wealth but came from a working family and worked her way up to the current position doing the American dream in practice compared to being handed a fortune from birth? Nope; can't see any difference there...

Jawgap

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Well I'm guessing as an attorney involved in numerous pro bono and issue cases over the years she'd have seen a lot more of real life and the problems it presents than "the Donald."

BoatMad

seamus wrote: »

I'm not sure if being "pro business" is good enough though really. Trump is a terrible businessman in every regard.
I'm not sure the markets will put a lot of stock (pun intended) in his capability.

That said though, it's the other houses who will control most of the domestic policy, so it'll be a good day to be an American oligarch and a bad day to be an average American worker.
Foreign policy is a different matter though. Trump will be a complete disaster on that front, worse than GWB, Reagan, or Nixon, so has the potential to put the value of the dollar in the toilet.

actually as a right winger and not a trump supporter, I think we could actually make a decent president, but I think he will now be consumed by the right wing Republican party and he will fail to deliver his " make america great "

firstly he will not get the money , and secondly he will be controlled

Jan_de_Bakker

Lord TSC wrote: »

Man literally lived in a solid gold penthouse before he won.

"Man of the normal people" :rolleyes:

Obama, the first Black president, will have to shake hands with a man who was endorsed by the KKK. 2016 is ****ed. Up.

Thats not Trumps fault, I'm sure Obama was endorsed by the black panthers - not his fault either.

This is a reaction, the people are tired of MSM lies and politicians not being honest about serious matters.

Hillary could have won, if the MSM was fairer and she herself was more honest (if she gave the speech Sam Harris wrote for her for starters )

They can't be surprised.

Jawgap

BoatMad wrote: »

actually as a right winger and not a trump supporter, I think we could actually make a decent president, but I think he will now be consumed by the right wing Republican party and he will fail to deliver his " make america great "

firstly he will not get the money , and secondly he will be controlled

What in his experience and achievements would make you think that?

pumpkin4life

Does Billy86 still post on this thread?

Jawgap

Jan_de_Bakker wrote: »

Thats not Trumps fault, I'm sure Obama was endorsed by the black panthers - not his fault either.

This is a reaction, the people are tired of MSM lies and politicians not being honest about serious matters.

Hillary could have won, if the MSM was fairer and she herself was more honest (if she gave the speech Sam Harris wrote for her for starters )

They can't be surprised.

Maybe you'd post the link where Trump distances himself from the KKK?

And the Obama/Black Panthers thing was a discredited conspiracy thing - his membership card is with his Kenyan birth cert :rolleyes:

seamus

Lovely Bloke wrote: »

If Clinton had won, in such a tight contest, would you be calling it "groupthink"?

Yes? Groupthink isn't a bad thing, it's an emergent property of human consciousness. It happens. And it can be heavily exploited by things like polls and making false claims because "everyone says so".
Trump is objectively an awful candidate with no redeeming qualities, but he still won. That's the power of groupthink.

Likewise if Hillary won, it would have been groupthink about her suitability or least-worstness.

This is exactly the reason people lie about voting for candidates like Trump, they just don't want to have to put up with the snide comments, the sly remarks from the "right-on" people

In other words, they're ashamed of their opinion because they're incapable of justifying it.

Gotcha.

Nody

Jawgap wrote: »

What in his experience and achievements would make you think that?

I'd guess Bush junior approach; weak president but smart advisors to run the actual policy.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

BoatMad

In other words, they're ashamed of their opinion because they're incapable of justifying it.

I think this is the key , take out , for pollsters, people are lying to the polls

cnocbui

Nody wrote: »

That level of fall would take at least a month or two to happen and normally would take at least 6 months to happen. I expect the recession to come end of 2017 along with a stock market crash (we're overdue one anyway) because the economy has to start tanking.

This election result didn't surprise me. You are probably right, just my pessimism getting the better of me, however, it wouldn't surprise me.

Wish I had bought even more gold last year, now. :rolleyes:

Jawgap

Nody wrote: »

I'd guess Bush junior approach; weak president but smart advisors to run the actual policy.

Nice deflection but Bush accumulated advisers as he progressed through the GOP and was supported by the RNC - you think Trump is going to accept that kind of help?

Equally, do you think anyone with ambition in the GOP is going to allow themselves to be associated with Trump if the party leadership are not wholly supportive of him? Especially if he costs them control of Congress in 2018 and the re-districting that's due to be done.

EDIT: Apologies @nody, my original question wasn't directed at you so can't really suggest you were deflecting