2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

Nabber

Jawgap wrote: »

Maybe you'd post the link where Trump distances himself from the KKK?

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/03/politics/donald-trump-disavows-david-duke-kkk/

In fairness he was quick too to disavowal the KKK

learn_more

Haha, the experts say that people in Florida went out and voted when they never did before.

Which just backs up my claim that 'they voted for that guy on the telly'.

Nabber

BoatMad wrote: »

I think this is the key , take out , for pollsters, people are lying to the polls

Lie the polls. There is no need for them.

Jawgap

Nabber wrote: »

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/03/politics/donald-trump-disavows-david-duke-kkk/

In fairness he was quick too to disavowal the KKK

Noted and accepted

BoatMad

Jawgap wrote: »

Nice deflection but Bush accumulated advisers as he progressed through the GOP and was supported by the RNC - you think Trump is going to accept that kind of help?

Equally, do you think anyone with ambition in the GOP is going to allow themselves to be associated with Trump if the party leadership are not wholly supportive of him? Especially if he costs them control of Congress in 2018 and the re-districting that's due to be done.

EDIT: Apologies @nody, my original question wasn't directed at you so can't really suggest you were deflecting

oh the RNC will take Trump, to its breast, dont believe anything else will be the case. everyone wants to be on the winning side

Chips Lovell

This is going to be hilarious.

cnocbui

Nody wrote: »

I'd guess Bush junior approach; weak president but smart advisors to run the actual policy.

That went well. Terrorism spreading throughout Europe and a new batch storming the walls. Still, Trump is an isolationist so perhaps the damage will be more confined this time. Fingers crossed.

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

I think this is the key , take out , for pollsters, people are lying to the polls

learn_more wrote: »

Haha, the experts say that people in Florida went out and voted when they never did before.

Which just backs up my claim that 'they voted for that guy on the telly'.

This bit is important. The polling models require estimates of turnout of specific categories of voters. If the models are backward looking (they mostly are and have to be) they cannot capture changes in the turnout which can change the poll enormously!

Nabber

I think it's dangerous to write off BRexiters and Trump supporters as idiots. What we are seeing is people who want change.

The Governments of the West have stopped listening to the people but try to play a political correctness, where by the state is genderless, religion free, asexual, with an acceptance to persecute the majority.

Our societies are not bland. Allowing the SJW or BLM antics is no longer acceptable to the majority.

France will follow suit.

Fr Tod Umptious

cnocbui wrote: »

I'm an Australian.

Well I'm sure your country has it's own examples too.

Harry Angstrom

3 things you thought you'd never see happen:

President Donald Trump
UK leave EU
Ireland beat All Blacks

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

This bit is important. The polling models require estimates of turnout of specific categories of voters. If the models are backward looking (they mostly are and have to be) they cannot capture changes in the turnout which can change the poll enormously!

The feedback is that minorities voted as expected , heavily in favour of Clinton, however there was no evidence that they voted in greater numbers , in fact the opposite

There is clear evidence that the Male white vote massively voted for Trump and that he got out much larger numbers then previously.

Pollsters are clearly sampling the wrong groups

_Jamie_

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

She didn't play on it as much as Trump.

BoatMad

Nabber wrote: »

I think it's dangerous to write off BRexiters and Trump supporters as idiots. What we are seeing is people who want change.

The Governments of the West have stopped listening to the people but try to play a political correctness, where by the state is genderless, religion free, asexual, with an acceptance to persecute the majority.

Our societies are not bland. Allowing the SJW or BLM antics is no longer acceptable to the majority.

France will follow suit.

sadly , true , but not the reasons you outline, Firstly most of the issues that are used to generate fear in these groups are largely false or not actually relevant, for example you can remove every immigrant from the UK or the USA, its will not bring back the steel mills or the coal mines etc

what actually has happened is that these fears were exploited by people and a person who peddled " simple solutions ".

But lets wait and see, will Brexit deliver for its proponents, will Trump, I suspect in 4 years we will see huge disappointment amongst current supporters

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

The feedback is that minorities voted as expected , heavily in favour of Clinton, however there was no evidence that they voted in greater numbers , in fact the opposite

There is clear evidence that the Male white vote massively voted for Trump and that he got out much larger numbers then previously.

Pollsters are clearly sampling the wrong groups

How do you model this?

The pollsters will have said that historically X% of Y Group voted this way.

If 10*X turn up on the day, then the polls will certainly be out of whack with reality.

However, how do you model this large turnout? It was unexpectedly large was it not?

Jawgap

BoatMad wrote: »

oh the RNC will take Trump, to its breast, dont believe anything else will be the case. everyone wants to be on the winning side

I'm sure they will and no doubt they'll be 'confident' they can control him, the same way von Papen was confident

Jawgap

Nabber wrote: »

I think it's dangerous to write off BRexiters and Trump supporters as idiots. What we are seeing is people who want change.

The Governments of the West have stopped listening to the people but try to play a political correctness, where by the state is genderless, religion free, asexual, with an acceptance to persecute the majority.

Our societies are not bland. Allowing the SJW or BLM antics is no longer acceptable to the majority.

France will follow suit.

So rigid enforcement and acknowledge of gender, mono-theistic approach to religion and allow the majority to rule as they see fit?

That about right?

Sound like anywhere we know in the world at the moment?

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

How do you model this?

The pollsters will have said that historically X% of Y Group voted this way.

If 10*X turn up on the day, then the polls will certainly be out of whack with reality.

However, how do you model this large turnout? It was unexpectedly large was it not?

it was not particular larger then Obamas election , what was different was the makeup of who came out, blacks and hispanics basically did not come out in sufficient numbers to counter the white male aspects of Trumps vote. This suggest that many minorities didnt warm to clinton.

I also think the effect of polls calling election sis now having a incredibly bad effect , basically no candidate would now want to be called in the lead

BoatMad

Jawgap wrote: »

I'm sure they will and no doubt they'll be 'confident' they can control him, the same way von Papen was confident

we can only hope that Trump, will evolve into Regan

Fr Tod Umptious

Where do the Dems. go from here ?

Who is the 2020 candidate ?

Going on all in Hillary has failed.

Sanders will be too old, and quiet frankly too socialist.

Fallschirmjager

FA Hayek wrote: »

A result that is surprising but the fact no one in the establishment saw it coming shows us how far removed they are.

exactly and if i could add...this election is the death cries of the old media...talk about getting their ass handed to them. is anyone really watching CNN anymore or MSNBC and fox (who were very anti trump btw) and believing them? i suspect that vote is now in. it really shows a lot of Americans (and elsewhere including Ireland) have switched off and are going social/web based news.
as an example, i didnt realise until i read at the weekend that some web reporter pointed out that in a 2 or 3 day stretch last week, there was both clintons, obama and some other big name democrat in Michigan...a democratic stronghold. s/he questioned why...unless the democrats realised there were in deep sh1t. there was also that picture of the trump town hall in michigan...honestly go look it up and you will see the writing was on the wall...its like a football match not a political show. when i saw it i realised this would be a super close election and nothing like what the old media was saying.
i was (or is it am? not sure now) a Gary 'what is aleppo' johnson supporter so didnt really have any skin in this game so looking from the outside in it truly is fascinating...
websites like anonymous' old home base 4chan have been rampant and active in this (go look at the internet memes they created on twitter about clinton wanting your daughter to sign up to fight russia and bring back the draft except only for women. twitter had to remove some of them as they hit number 2 on retweets -- this was about 2 weeks back. another site is breitbart and their pro trump gay icon (whose name escapes me right now) who has been loudly supporting trump -- not a typical place for the GOP...yet trump has dragged them there like it or not.
i think the assange/wikileaks drip drip drip stories really hurt the Clintons, it was a constant background noise of corruption (regardless whether you believe it or not)...far more than the media was willing to accept (and i might add...their troubles are just beginning now..there is a strange smells emanating from the clinton foundation and i suspect will now come under huge pressure from the fbi and nypd.) Now, compare this to the the slogan 'drain the swamp' or 'rigged game' and you have a battlecry that resonates with voters who cant legally prove that DC is rotten but just know it to their core. one thing bill clinton said years ago ' its the econony, stupid', i think Hillary forgot that, trump on the other hand, kept talking about it. i realise you might not believe he will deliver...but the goal is to get elected...strangely another bill clinton comment.
it really looks like to me --the people who pay for everything are fed up...fed up getting blamed, getting accused, getting shouted at and they are striking back and depending on your viewpoint swinging wildly or correctly.
as a final note, i suspect we will have similar mini quakes in Europe in elections that are upcoming. the fight backs (whether you think they are right or wrong) are far from over....if anything it has invigorated anti establishment groups far and wide. this is the beginning of a lot of sweeping changes...not the end...
just my opinion obviously...

Jawgap

BoatMad wrote: »

we can only hope that Trump, will evolve into Regan

.....and again what in his achievements and experience would make you think he might?

Lord TSC

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Did I say she was?

Neither candidate was one for the everyday man. Neither came from humble upbringings. Both are extremely wealthy, extremely upper class candidates.

Anatom

The breakdown of Trump support is interesting, though predictable...

His supporters are generally older white males without a college degree who live in mostly rural areas and who are mostly Protestant (or "other Christian"). 61% of his supporters serve or served in the military.

The most important issues to his voters were Immigration (64%) and Terrorism (57%), whereas Clinton's supporters were more concerned by Foreign Policy (60%) and the Economy (52%).

65% of his voters think that trade with other countries takes away US jobs and 84% of them think illegal immigrants should be deported.

What I am surprised by though, is that he got 42% of the female vote.

BoatMad

Jawgap wrote: »

.....and again what in his achievements and experience would make you think he might?

because , Trump made be lots of things, but he's no fool

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

it was not particular larger then Obamas election , what was different was the makeup of who came out, blacks and hispanics basically did not come out in sufficient numbers to counter the white male aspects of Trumps vote. This suggest that many minorities didnt warm to clinton.

I also think the effect of polls calling election sis now having a incredibly bad effect , basically no candidate would now want to be called in the lead

So the make up of the turnout on the day was not in line with the models. So the models were wrong.

Which is exactly what I said originally!

weldoninhio

Jawgap wrote: »

Yes, people want immigration control......

......except when it comes to the 'undocumented' Irish :rolleyes:

If an Irish person is found in another country without the proper visa they should be sent home and banned from that country for x amount of years. It's that simple. I've constantly seen this "argument" about undocumented Irish and it generally gets the same response as I've given, but still gets rolled out the next time.

BoatMad

65% of his voters think that trade with other countries takes away US jobs and 84% of them think illegal immigrants should be deported.

sadly this is what has been exploited , an irrational fear , that in reality has little to do the underlying problems that affect this groups

Thomas_...

I think that all those who cheered and voted for this nightmare candidate Trump will soon enough bitterly regret that they have voted this man into this Office of the President of the USA. After this election, there is nothing left of my esteem on a country I once looked at as being the beakon of the free world. Not anymore.

The big times of the populists will soon enough bring a long time of suffering for the ordinary people with it, the very ones who voted for them too. I'm sure of it because history has many examples that prove my point and one doesn't has to go back in history that far. The past 16 years are enough to see that. G.W. Bush jr. was until now the worst President they ever had, but Trump will surely top him, no doubt about that.

Jawgap

BoatMad wrote: »

because , Trump made be lots of things, but he's no fool

.....such as?

I'm not suggesting he's a fool, I'm just wondering what of his achievements would lead one to believe he'll make a passable President - not a Reagan, or a Truman or an Obama, just a good President?

It's an of cited fact, but true - if I invested my money with Trump in 1985, I'd have nothing left because of his bankrupticies (note the plural) - if I'd put it into a fund that simply tracked a stockmarket index I'd have a good chunk of cash .

Akrasia

The republican party nominated Trump, but the democrats gave him the election by rigging their own primary so that their own members and independents turned against them.

The Democrats were too arrogant and entitled. They thought they could ram in their preferred candidate despite all the signals that the American people wanted a change to the establishment.

They had a perfect candidate in Bernie Sanders, and they did everything they could to keep him from winning the nomination.

Republicans had a terrible candidate, and the election would have been over months ago if the democrats hadn't ballsed it up. Now we're stuck with a monster as president, and a religious fundamentalist as VP.

Thomas_...

BoatMad wrote: »

Jawgap wrote: »

.....and again what in his achievements and experience would make you think he might?

because , Trump made be lots of things, but he's no fool

That remains to be seen when after his inauguration he will face real politics and when he still acts the elephant in the glashouse, we will all know whether your point is right or not.

BoatMad

Jawgap wrote: »

.....such as?

I'm not suggesting he's a fool, I'm just wondering what of his achievements would lead one to believe he'll make a passable President - not a Reagan, or a Truman or an Obama, just a good President?

It's an of cited fact, but true - if I invested my money with Trump in 1985, I'd have nothing left because of his bankrupticies (note the plural) - if I'd put it into a fund that simply tracked a stockmarket index I'd have a good chunk of cash .

I have faith in the mechanism of the presidency and the government of the US. Trump has to act within a political system.

Regan had some gubernatorial experience , but was essentially untried. He grew into the office and was generally regarded as a good president

Nody

Thomas_... wrote: »

I think that all those who cheered and voted for this nightmare candidate Trump will soon enough bitterly regret that they have voted this man into this Office of the President of the USA. After this election, there is nothing left of my esteem on a country I once looked at as being the beakon of the free world. Not anymore.

The big times of the populists will soon enough bring a long time of suffering for the ordinary people with it, the very ones who voted for them too. I'm sure of it because history has many examples that prove my point and one doesn't has to go back in history that far. The past 16 years are enough to see that. G.W. Bush jr. was until now the worst President they ever had, but Trump will surely top him, no doubt about that.

While nice in theory in practice that's now how the reality works; I agree that I expect things will get worse for a lot of the voters who voted for Trump/Brexit. However they will not connect their vote and the worse conditions together but will listen to the latest deflections (oh the democrats stopped us from doing A; oh this and that caused it, not our fault but vote for us and we'll fix it! etc.).

Add in the time lag of several years (boiling frog syndrome) and the simple fact is that it will lead to more and more extreme candidates. Every so often we'll get brilliant once sneaking through but the overall quality will go down as the arguments will become more and more twitter length snips rather than policy discussions to win.

Atlantic Dawn

#AnyoneButHillary has won, what a peformance by them in this campaign, what a result, how completely wrong the media were.

Jawgap

Thomas_... wrote: »

That remains to be seen when after his inauguration he will face real politics and when he still acts the elephant in the glashouse, we will all know whether your point is right or not.

So nothing in his achievements to indicate if he'll be a good President?

Just as an aside, I thought he (as in his companies) had been through Chapter 11 twice, but it's 6 times!!! And pretty much on each occasion it was because he over-leveraged his operations......so I'm guessing that at least the national debt and deficit are in safe, if small, hands

Akrasia

BoatMad wrote: »

I have faith in the mechanism of the presidency and the government of the US. Trump has to act within a political system.

Regan had some gubernatorial experience , but was essentially untried. He grew into the office and was generally regarded as a good president

The political system is broken, and Trump has now got control of all 3 branches of government

He'll get to pick the balance of power in the supreme court for the next decade, he'll probably have the house and senate for his full 4 years unless he screws up so badly in the first 2 years that he ruins his parties chances in the mid terms (in which case the damage has probably already been done)

BoatMad

Jawgap wrote: »

So nothing in his achievements to indicate if he'll be a good President?

Just as an aside, I thought he (as in his companies) had been through Chapter 11 twice, but it's 6 times!!! And pretty much on each occasion it was because he over-leveraged his operations......so I'm guessing that at least the national debt and deficit are in safe, if small, hands

oh I thinks it will be the case that the deficit will be far far bigger when trump leaves office

however I also believe that at present , theres no other option, electorates pay lip service to deficits , but consistently vote out politicians that implement austerity to reduce same deficit

Thomas_...

Nody wrote: »

Thomas_... wrote: »

I think that all those who cheered and voted for this nightmare candidate Trump will soon enough bitterly regret that they have voted this man into this Office of the President of the USA. After this election, there is nothing left of my esteem on a country I once looked at as being the beakon of the free world. Not anymore.

The big times of the populists will soon enough bring a long time of suffering for the ordinary people with it, the very ones who voted for them too. I'm sure of it because history has many examples that prove my point and one doesn't has to go back in history that far. The past 16 years are enough to see that. G.W. Bush jr. was until now the worst President they ever had, but Trump will surely top him, no doubt about that.

While nice in theory in practice that's now how the reality works; I agree that I expect things will get worse for a lot of the voters who voted for Trump/Brexit. However they will not connect their vote and the worse conditions together but will listen to the latest deflections (oh the democrats stopped us from doing A; oh this and that caused it, not our fault but vote for us and we'll fix it! etc.).

Add in the time lag of several years (boiling frog syndrome) and the simple fact is that it will lead to more and more extreme candidates. Every so often we'll get brilliant once sneaking through but the overall quality will go down as the arguments will become more and more twitter length snips rather than policy discussions to win.

I can only say, well spotted! Answers the question when wondering about why both big parties couldn't arrange younger candidates with a more clean biography than the these two. I mean, Hillary going on 70, Trump being already 70. That was something like the average age at which the last Soviet Nomenklatura heads became leader of the SU before Gorbachev was elected in 1985.

Nody

Akrasia wrote: »

They had a perfect candidate in Bernie Sanders, and they did everything they could to keep him from winning the nomination.

Republicans had a terrible candidate, and the election would have been over months ago if the democrats hadn't ballsed it up. Now we're stuck with a monster as president, and a religious fundamentalist as VP.

Bernie would have been slaughtered in the election as a communist and what not to lose the centrist vote imo; what will be interesting to see is who's going to come up in the Democratic party in general though and on what type of platform.

Jawgap

BoatMad wrote: »

I have faith in the mechanism of the presidency and the government of the US. Trump has to act within a political system.

Regan had some gubernatorial experience , but was essentially untried. He grew into the office and was generally regarded as a good president

Didn't Bush junior act within the political system - remind us how much the debt and deficit grew on his watch, and how many wars he managed to mire the country in?

And with a Congress disposed towards him, and the chance to load the Supreme Court in his favour, the checks and balances seem a bit thin this time around.

BoatMad

While nice in theory in practice that's now how the reality works; I agree that I expect things will get worse for a lot of the voters who voted for Trump/Brexit. However they will not connect their vote and the worse conditions together but will listen to the latest deflections (oh the democrats stopped us from doing A; oh this and that caused it, not our fault but vote for us and we'll fix it! etc.).

well he has both houses and the SCOTUS , hard to blame others !!!

Thomas_...

Jawgap wrote: »

Thomas_... wrote: »

That remains to be seen when after his inauguration he will face real politics and when he still acts the elephant in the glashouse, we will all know whether your point is right or not.

So nothing in his achievements to indicate if he'll be a good President?

Just as an aside, I thought he (as in his companies) had been through Chapter 11 twice, but it's 6 times!!! And pretty much on each occasion it was because he over-leveraged his operations......so I'm guessing that at least the national debt and deficit are in safe, if small, hands

No, nothing at all. There isn't any good to anticipate from a bully like him.

Akrasia

K-9 wrote: »

Any time Republicans or Trump go on about cutting costs, that means jobs.


Maybe Trump is when the penny finally drops, the light bulb moment.

Maybe people finally cop that that the last 40 years of wage stagnation ties in with the the obliteration of unions.

For a lot of these people, there is no penny to drop.

BoatMad

Originally Posted by K-9 View Post
Any time Republicans or Trump go on about cutting costs, that means jobs.


Maybe Trump is when the penny finally drops, the light bulb moment.

Maybe people finally cop that that the last 40 years of wage stagnation ties in with the the obliteration of unions.

Trump is not a conservative or a Republican in the conventional sense of the term. He's much closer to FDR style politics then right wing tea party politics

Akrasia

Akrasia wrote: »

For a lot of these people, there is no penny to drop.

Trump only just lost the popular vote. Quantify 'a lot'?

Nody

BoatMad wrote: »

well he has both houses and the SCOTUS , hard to blame others !!!

It's easy; China (see Japan in the 90s) are buying out our companies and giving unfair state aid, those Mexican drug lords are poisoning our children so they can't get jobs; the illegal immigrants are lowering the quality of our schools and healthcare by taking up resources.

You can go on and find plenty of ways to find others to blame for everything even with all the powers in your hand; esp. if all you need to produce is maximum of a minute or two talking time for the news.

BorneTobyWilde

I guess I was right
Polls were wrong, there was a huge secret Trump vote
That rallies reflected the turnout
That it would be a landslide
He would reach out to Hillary

Akrasia

Deleted User wrote: »

Trump only just lost the popular vote. Quantify 'a lot'?

Well, the 42% of Americans who believe the world is only 6000 years old for a start..
http://www.gallup.com/poll/170822/believe-creationist-view-human-origins.aspx

and the 60% of republicans who still don't think humans are causing global warming
http://www.gallup.com/poll/190010/concern-global-warming-eight-year-high.aspx


There are a lot of americans who are woefully uninformed about reality.

And it's not because the information isn't accessible, it's because they are wearing blinkers, they have chosen their beliefs and no evidence will change their mind.

BorneTobyWilde

Some over the top democrats still saying things like he will be in oval office get a tweet he doesn't like and press the nuclear button .