2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

oik

Billy86 wrote: »

"Her daughter is loike, such a brat, ohmigawd!" though, is as desperate as desperate can get in terms of presidential election arguments.

He was just listing the contents of the latest email dump. No need to get bratty about it.

Pro Hoc Vice

oik wrote: »

Tangent much?

How is it a tangent. You claimed that Clinton might use the fact one of the women from Sunday night was paid. The fact is she has not nor did she prade women including trumps daughters mother before trump and his daughter in a cheap stunt.

So set out how Clinton not using a trump play is a tangent when you claimed she might.

oik

Pro Hoc Vice wrote: »

How is it a tangent. You claimed that Clinton might use the fact one of the women from Sunday night was paid. The fact is she has not nor did she prade women including trumps daughters mother before trump and his daughter in a cheap stunt.

So set out how Clinton not using a trump play is a tangent when you claimed she might.

No I didn't. I claimed that they would never be so stupid.


Besides, Clinton has given no quarter this campaign and last night was a signal that nor would Trump.

bajer101

I watched the debate live last night and while Clinton did what she had to do by avoiding getting hit with any knock-out blows, I think people are underestimating how well Trump did. While Trump lied and obfuscated his way through the debate, only those who had already decided to vote for Clinton will have noticed that. He was trying to appeal to the undecideds and he probably did that successfully.

Frank Luntz' focus group of 30 undecideds gave the debate 18-4 to Trump. The latest polls which showed Clinton getting a huge bump are based on the first debate and the grope tape. I expect that Trump will get a slight bump when the results of the second debate filter through, but this will probably be instantly eroded with the release of another tape - possibly the "N-word" one.

oik

bajer101 wrote: »

I watched the debate live last night and while Clinton did what she had to do by avoiding getting hit with any knock-out blows, I think people are underestimating how well Trump did. While Trump lied and obfuscated his way through the debate, only those who had already decided to vote for Clinton will have noticed that. He was trying to appeal to the undecideds and he probably did that successfully.

Frank Luntz' focus group of 30 undecideds gave the debate 18-4 to Trump. The latest polls which showed Clinton getting a huge bump are based on the first debate and the grope tape. I expect that Trump will get a slight bump when the results of the second debate filter through, but this will probably be instantly eroded with the release of another tape - possibly the "N-word" one.

"Trump lied his way through the debate" is a soundbite that has been doing the rounds. It's funny how everyone seems to come up with the same phrase after these debates. But it has little bearing on reality.

Even politifact can't find much wrong with Trump's statements. Not that they aren't trying very hard to nitpick as much as they can.

http://www.politifact.com/





The only genuine falsehood was this, although knowing politifact I'll need to check it in context.




There's no politifact fact checking of Hillary's claim that he says all Mexicans are rapists or many of her other lies.

Pro Hoc Vice

oik wrote: »

No I didn't. I claimed that they would never be so stupid.


Besides, Clinton has given no quarter this campaign and last night was a signal that nor would Trump.

You did not say Clinton would be so stupid you said the following in reponce to an article that one of the women was paid.

"Quote: oik
Hardly.

Good luck getting the American people on board with attacking a woman who was made infertile due to rape when she was 12."

That does not say what you now claim.

BorneTobyWilde

Paul Ryan will lose so much support for not standing by Klopp . He is living in a bubble, the few people around him telling him he's doing the right thing. When ever he speaks in public he's booed .

Phoebas

oik wrote: »

"Trump lied his way through the debate" is a soundbite that has been doing the rounds. It's funny how everyone seems to come up with the same phrase after these debates. But it has little bearing on reality.

Even politifact can't find much wrong with Trump's statements. Not that they aren't trying very hard to nitpick as much as they can.

http://www.politifact.com/





The only genuine falsehood was this, although knowing politifact I'll need to check it in context.




There's no politifact fact checking of Hillary's claim that he says all Mexicans are rapists or many of her other lies.

Do you even read what you post?

Pro Hoc Vice

oik wrote: »

"Trump lied his way through the debate" is a soundbite that has been doing the rounds. It's funny how everyone seems to come up with the same phrase after these debates. But it has little bearing on reality.

Even politifact can't find much wrong with Trump's statements. Not that they aren't trying very hard to nitpick as much as they can.

http://www.politifact.com/





The only genuine falsehood was this, although knowing politifact I'll need to check it in context.




There's no politifact fact checking of Hillary's claim that he says all Mexicans are rapists or many of her other lies.

I have listened to the recording she laughs about the fact that the guy passed a lie detector test and that fact she found funny as she had believed in such tests. The investagotors lost evidence that with the results of the test led to a reduced plea.

alchemist33

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Paul Ryan will lose so much support for not standing by Klopp . He is living in a bubble, the few people around him telling him he's doing the right thing. When ever he speaks in public he's booed .

Sure, Liverpool's defence is pretty poor, but I think they'll still make a good stab at the Premier League title this year.

oik

Pro Hoc Vice wrote: »

You did not say Clinton would be so stupid you said the following in reponce to an article that one of the women was paid.

"Quote: oik
Hardly.

Good luck getting the American people on board with attacking a woman who was made infertile due to rape when she was 12."

That does not say what you now claim.

Jesus Christ how many different ways do I have to explain it. You realise the "good luck" was ironic, right?

Pro Hoc Vice

oik wrote: »

Jesus Christ how many different ways do I have to explain it.

Maybe if you actually said what you wanted the first time. Can't blame me if you change your mind or can't say things clearly. By the way I'm not Jesus Christ.

So you answer my post and then edit that the Good Luck was ironic. I can't mind read as I said I'm not Jesus.

oik

Phoebas wrote: »

Do you even read what you post?

Yeah, if you actually look at some of politifact's verdicts they're flimsy enough.

oik

Pro Hoc Vice wrote: »

Maybe if you actually said what you wanted the first time. Can't blame me if you change your mind or can't say things clearly. By the way I'm not Jesus Christ.

It was clear enough, you're interjecting in someone else's back and forth, can't blame me if you miss some of the meaning.

Pro Hoc Vice

oik wrote: »

It was clear enough, you're interjecting in someone else's back and forth, can't blame me if you miss some of the meaning.

You even missed it yourself and had to edit to cover your own stupid claim.

oik

Pro Hoc Vice wrote: »

So you answer my post and then edit that the Good Luck was ironic. I can't mind read as I said I'm not Jesus.

Maybe you would have gleaned the irony from the context if it was you I was talking to originally.

Overheal

Phoebas wrote: »

Do you even read what you post?

No and he selectively omitted at least one Pants on Fire ruling he got last night for denying he told the American public to watch a porno

Billy86

Phoebas wrote: »

Do you even read what you post?

Like I said... I wouldn't bother, if you get my drift.

oik

Pro Hoc Vice wrote: »

You even missed it yourself and had to edit to cover your own stupid claim.

How would I miss my own use of irony?

Pro Hoc Vice

oik wrote: »

Maybe you would have gleaned the irony from the context if it was you I was talking to originally.

Don't think you have irony built in. Based on your posting I gave it the only meaning it could have had.

oik

Overheal wrote: »

No and he selectively omitted at least one Pants on Fire ruling he got last night for denying he told the American public to watch a porno

I'll leave it to Donald Trump to explain what he meant by his own tweets

Pro Hoc Vice

oik wrote: »

How would I miss my own use of irony?

Maybe you are just like Trump!

oik

Pro Hoc Vice wrote: »

Don't think you have irony built in. Based on your posting I gave it the only meaning it could have had.

You don't give meaning to my posts.

Pro Hoc Vice

oik wrote: »

You don't give meaning to my posts.

I don't think you even have that ability!

oik

Pro Hoc Vice wrote: »

I don't think you even have that ability!

My "good luck" could't have been anything other than ironic. To take such a statement literally in the context is nothing short of aspergers.

BorneTobyWilde

What does trump need to do to win. If he wins Florida then he can, if not then no hope?

oik

Clinton is still privately against gay marriage. Going to have to go back and look more closely at her answer on the supreme court question last night.

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/2631

K-9

Mod:

Stop with the handbags! Any more "witty" one liners, expect a few days off from the forum.

oik

Also the rape accusation against Trump is a fabrication.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/07/donald-trump-sexual-assault-lawsuits-norm-lubow

K-9

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

What does trump need to do to win. If he wins Florida then he can, if not then no hope?

Yep, he'll have to win Florida to stand a chance. He's in bother if he can't.

Suppose it comes down to those battle ground states, which other posters would have a better grasp of the math than me!

Latest poll results are even worse than I thought for Trump. Even if he comes out as winning last night it'll only be a 2 or 3 point gain which looks like the tape will still have done damage to him.

It's the same problem with him all the time, 1 step forward, 2 steps back.

Christy42

oik wrote: »

Also the rape accusation against Trump is a fabrication.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/07/donald-trump-sexual-assault-lawsuits-norm-lubow

Unless.something further comes out on it it should be dropped. Good job by the guardian for being the ones to figure it out.

I read through the emails(can't multiquote on phonee). It reads more like Hillary didn't want to admit she was wrong as opposed to any objection to LGBT rights (plus it isn't like LGBT people can go and expect good treatment from the guy who picked Mike Pence as a vp but that is an aside).

Overheal

Even if trump won Florida right now, he's still losing Arizona it looks like. The five thirty eight projections show he has very little chance of getting to 270, even if you gave him Florida and Arizona

oik

Christy42 wrote: »

Unless.something further comes out on it it should be dropped. Good job by the guardian for being the ones to figure it out.

I read through the emails(can't multiquote on phonee). It reads more like Hillary didn't want to admit she was wrong as opposed to any objection to LGBT rights (plus it isn't like LGBT people can go and expect good treatment from the guy who picked Mike Pence as a vp but that is an aside).

This is the bit I'm focusing on.

I'm just saying that she's not going to want to say she was wrong about that, given she and her husband believe it and have repeated it many times.

oik

Overheal wrote: »

Even if trump won Florida right now, he's still losing Arizona it looks like. The five thirty eight projections show he has very little chance of getting to 270, even if you gave him Florida and Arizona

He is behind in one Arizona poll by 2 points

BorneTobyWilde

Overheal wrote: »

Even if trump won Florida right now, he's still losing Arizona it looks like. The five thirty eight projections show he has very little chance of getting to 270, even if you gave him Florida and Arizona

http://www.270towin.com/maps/VKRgR

Can lose Arizona in that map .
Needs PA and Florida
He just read out polls at his rally which shows he is miles ahead, when other polls suggest he is behind.
This official polls are biased towards Clinton.

Overheal

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

http://www.270towin.com/maps/VKRgR

Can lose Arizona in that map .
Needs PA and Florida
He just read out polls at his rally which shows he is miles ahead, when other polls suggest he is behind.
This official polls are biased towards Clinton.

There have for what, decades, been cries of bias in the polls. Big criticism is how poorly they captured the millennial vote - which is in her favor.

But since the polls are pretty consistent through election cycles and the nate silver model weights them accordingly in its model which has predicted the election down to 49/50 states the last 2 elections that in aware of, im happy to place my confidence in the hard math, which shows dwindling odds that Trump can turn this around, short of some massive October surprise in his favor - and her private views on marriage aren't phasing the lbgt community that I've spoken to. They know well enough she won't touch the scotus ruling and she's secured too many of their votes to toss them off for any re election bid.

BorneTobyWilde

He's about to do the snake poem

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZatUn_AIrV4

oik

Overheal wrote: »

There have for what, decades, been cries of bias in the polls. Big criticism is how poorly they captured the millennial vote - which is in her favor.

But since the polls are pretty consistent through election cycles and the nate silver model weights them accordingly in its model which has predicted the election down to 49/50 states the last 2 elections that in aware of, im happy to place my confidence in the hard math, which shows dwindling odds that Trump can turn this around, short of some massive October surprise in his favor - and her private views on marriage aren't phasing the lbgt community that I've spoken to. They know well enough she won't touch the scotus ruling and she's secured too many of their votes to toss them off for any re election bid.

How accurate has it been a month out from the election? Two weeks?

It's easy to compare your predictions from the day before the election to the final result and have a high probability of success.

Many of his supposed predictions have inverted themselves twice in the last week, yet on election day he will say "look at the predictions I made yesterday, look how accurate they are".

BorneTobyWilde

He loves that snake poem .

K-9

Polls are snapshots of time, not predictions a month out!

BorneTobyWilde

Had kid up on stage

he asked, '' do you want to stay here with me, or go back to your mom and dad''
Kid answers '' trump ! into mic '' Crowd goes wild !

oik

That NBC news poll from after the tapes is pretty damning.


Until...

You realise that Hillary has stayed on 46 from the last time the poll was conducted, which would mean that previous Trump voters have switched to "undecideds", or so they say.

My theory has been that whenever Trump makes an outrageous statement or some embarrassing revelation comes out the number of admitted Trump voters goes down and the number of shy Trump voters goes up, but they end up coming back.

Trump's support is dropping but Hillary's support isn't gaining.

If ever there was going to be a shy voter phenomenon it's this election.


The usual suspects are going to call me deluded and blahdy blah. I could equally argue the same back. I'm putting this out there so I can reference it on Nov 8th.


I'm going to estimate that the average shy Trump vote is about 2% and it rises to 4% during times of scandal.

Overheal

K-9 wrote: »

Polls are snapshots of time, not predictions a month out!

Indeed, but couple them with stats on aggregate polling and historical polling vs. voting trends and you create your model.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/

Those who remember stat classes will find a lot of it familiar. And they don't just do one projection but a couple hundred (or thousand?) permutations of the election and come up with a % win distribution for each candidate.

K-9

Yep, I'd agree with the 2% figure, but he's 6 or 7 behind in latest polls.

oik

K-9 wrote: »

Yep, I'd agree with the 2% figure, but he's 6 or 7 behind in latest polls.

There's no doubt he's behind atm.

I also predicted he would improve as the debates went on - while Hillary would stagnate - just as he did in the primaries.

Some of Clinton's weaknesses became apparent in the last debate. She loves to gloat. She gloated about killing Gaddaffi, she gloated after the first debate and she gloated at the debate last night about Republicans abandoning Trump. There's a pattern there that can be exploited.

The leaks keep coming and although they're not damning enough to put her away or affect her poll numbers on their own, they do provide ammunition for Trump to use in a debate to put her on the back-foot.

What he needs to do is keep her on the defensive, using her time to give badly contrived explanations like her failed Abe Lincoln defence, while he uses his time to present his positive vision.

Examples like the gay marriage thing aren't going to affect her poll numbers, but she would have no choice but to defend herself if that came up in a debate.

oik

https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/141

Clinton super PAC employs "nerd virgins" to shill for her online.

Correct the Record’s staff (18 and counting) is crammed into a newsroom-style bullpen in the back corner of the offices of American Bridge 21st Century, Brock’s Super-PAC. “They’re always there; they’re always working around the clock,” former Clinton White House adviser Paul Begala says of the crew. “I always tease David that he finds all of these nerd virgins and locks them away in a vault where they never see sunlight or have a drink or get laid. But God Bless them!”

This is the election season that keeps on giving.

Christy42

oik wrote: »

This is the bit I'm focusing on.

Seems like a reach. Saying they believe it could be belief in gay marriage (which they have stated many times at this point). Shrugs. I don't think it is a smoking gun in that regard. Plus Trump can't use it to attack with given his choice of VP. Hillary is obviously happy enough to not fight against gay marriage while Pence would. The pro LGBT choice is still obvious.

Talk of shy voters is hopeful. If anything Trump could struggle to match poll numbers. His ground game is dependent on the Republican party who could well focus on elections lower down the ballot leaving him without his voters actually voting.

frostyjacks

I can only admire Trump with all the mass media against him, Republicans reaching for the white flag, and all the mud slung at him, yet he's still standing, still throwing punches. He's still in the game and if we've learned anything from Brexit, it's that anything can happen on the day.

Akrasia

Overheal wrote: »

There have for what, decades, been cries of bias in the polls. Big criticism is how poorly they captured the millennial vote - which is in her favor.

But since the polls are pretty consistent through election cycles and the nate silver model weights them accordingly in its model which has predicted the election down to 49/50 states the last 2 elections that in aware of, im happy to place my confidence in the hard math, which shows dwindling odds that Trump can turn this around, short of some massive October surprise in his favor - and her private views on marriage aren't phasing the lbgt community that I've spoken to. They know well enough she won't touch the scotus ruling and she's secured too many of their votes to toss them off for any re election bid.

Nate Silver hasn't been performing that well this time. He has been introducing his own bias into his predictions and not following the raw Data. Nate didn't see Trump winning the GOP primary until late in the game because he kept inventing reasons to not trust the data that showed Trump steamrolling through his competition.

That said, he does seem to have learned from this, and is back to following the numbers and leaving his own opinion on the sideline. But even that aside, this election is very different to every other election in living memory. And the crazy can sometimes rise to the top (see brexit, which was way behind in the polls until the last minute when they snuck ahead)

Overheal

I don't blame him, who wanted to believe Donald Trump of all people could possibly be considered a real candidate? But there you go.