2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

TheDoctor

RobertKK wrote: »

Fox news say the electoral college currently stands at:
Clinton 307
Trump 187
Toss up 44

What were the toss ups?

TheDoctor

Nate Silver 538 model if vote was held today:

Clinton 347
Trump 191

Odds of victory

Clinton 90.8%
Trump 9.2%

oik

alastair wrote: »

But not the yes vote - which was the claim you made.

The undecideds in this election are presented with more than a binary choice, and keep in mind that the polls may well have been accurate, and it was voter turnout (rather than shy voters) that shifted the undecided percentages into the no camp.

My mistake, I meant to make the point that No was underestimated.

That wouldn't make sense because the youth vote was higher than usual and were primarily Yes voters. I can't easily find the data but I find it unlikely that the No voting demographics turned out in greater numbers than usual.

alastair

oik wrote: »

My mistake, I meant to make the point that No was underestimated.

That wouldn't make sense because the youth vote was higher than usual and were primarily Yes voters. I can't easily find the data but I find it unlikely that the No voting demographics turned out in greater numbers than usual.

Granted, but if you take the numbers for the Millward Brown poll, and assume all the undecideds were part of the 39% who didn't vote, then the percentage boost for both yes and no votes would be in the ballpark of the final outcome. No real evidence of shy voters there.

oik

alastair wrote: »

Granted, but if you take the numbers for the Millward Brown poll, and assume all the undecideds were part of the 39% who didn't vote, then the percentage boost for both yes and no votes would be in the ballpark of the final outcome. No real evidence of shy voters there.

You cannot assume that at all because most polls sample likely voters. The first question they ask is "will you vote" or "how likely are you to vote", so no, those people are either undecideds because they're actually undecided or because they're shy No's.

That Millward Brown poll was conducted face to face as well.

oik

alastair wrote: »

It's a pretty typical undecided percentage for any election year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections

It's considerably larger than October of previous elections.

alastair

oik wrote: »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections

It's considerably larger than October of previous elections.

If you're going by those figures, you're looking at polls that divide the undecideds between the candidates. Here's a report on the 2012 election that references that actual percentage of undecideds in the last couple of elections:

There’s evidence that the environment of the incumbent/challenger race makes a difference. 1996 was not an especially polarizing election overall, and fully 17 percent of those who voted waited until the last week to make up their minds. By contrast, the 2004 electorate polarized over the invasion of Iraq and the conduct of the “war on terror,” and only 11 percent remained undecided as the final week of the campaign began. Because partisan and ideological polarization are even sharper in 2012, there’s good reason to conjecture that the percentage of voters who remain undecided with a week to go will be much smaller. That does not imply, however, that the propensity of these voters to favor the challenger will change.

http://www.hoover.org/research/will-undecided-decide-election

CNN report September in the 2012 campaign:

Depending on the poll, the percentage of U.S. voters who say they are undecided ranges from 3% to 8%. In the battleground state of Ohio, a recent poll showed that about nine in 10 voters have made up their minds.

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/09/24/politics/slivers-undecided/

alastair

oik wrote: »

You cannot assume that at all because most polls sample likely voters. The first question they ask is "will you vote" or "how likely are you to vote", so no, those people are either undecideds because they're actually undecided or because they're shy No's.

That Millward Brown poll was conducted face to face as well.

They're either shy no's, shy yes's, or shy non-voters. You really can't ascribe any intent on them.

KingBrian2

After a mountain of criticism Trump still has a strong core base of mostly Independent voters with the bulk of them Republican and many Democrats joining the cause. Could this be the alternative vote away from the two traditional parties that bailed out the banks and voted for multiple wars. We will see come November. I only hope the old political dynasties hold on power is broken and better economic and foreign polices are enacted. On this Hillary is siding with the old guard of the Democratic party.

Christy42

KingBrian2 wrote: »

After a mountain of criticism Trump still has a strong core base of mostly Independent voters with the bulk of them Republican and many Democrats joining the cause. Could this be the alternative vote away from the two traditional parties that bailed out the banks and voted for multiple wars. We will see come November. I only hope the old political dynasties hold on power is broken and better economic and foreign polices are enacted. On this Hillary is siding with the old guard of the Democratic party.

Any evidence of these random claims? The gop's problem is that Trump's supporters are a majority in the gop but not in the populace so they can't please their voters and still be electablE given how polarising he is.

I haven't seen anything of Hillary polling badly with either democrats or independents. Indeed if she lost either of those groups she would be behind in the polls.

oik

alastair wrote: »

If you're going by those figures, you're looking at polls that divide the undecideds between the candidates. Here's a report on the 2012 election that references that actual percentage of undecideds in the last couple of elections:


http://www.hoover.org/research/will-undecided-decide-election

CNN report September in the 2012 campaign:

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/09/24/politics/slivers-undecided/

No, only the earlier elections like the ones in the 1930's divide the undecideds in the way you suggest. If you scroll down to recent elections you'll get a better picture.

TheDoctor

Trump at war with the GOP. A Republican civil war on the cards.

How awful.

gosplan

KingBrian2 wrote: »

After a mountain of criticism Trump still has a strong core base of mostly Independent voters with the bulk of them Republican and many Democrats joining the cause. Could this be the alternative vote away from the two traditional parties that bailed out the banks and voted for multiple wars. We will see come November. I only hope the old political dynasties hold on power is broken and better economic and foreign polices are enacted. On this Hillary is siding with the old guard of the Democratic party.

Good point.

There's so much dissatisfaction right now with the mainstream. I have a feeling that a lot of it stems from the recession a few years back and the slow recovery.

But Trump and Sanders are two sides of the same coin.

If Trump were just a bit more disclipined, he could have won.

But now he's just become a kind of raving loser in the eyes of many. If he wasn't so focussed on making it about him, he would have been fine.

oik

alastair wrote: »

They're either shy no's, shy yes's, or shy non-voters. You really can't ascribe any intent on them.

We can certainly draw inferences based on the final results.

There certainly was no significant uptick in the Yes vote but there was a double digit uptick in the No vote, so we can ascertain that there was indeed a sizeable portion of shy No's.

If that's not an example of a shy voter phenomenon then there are no examples.

Frank Bullitt

I saw at the end of his latest rally, Trump really got the crowd going and urged them to register so they can vote on the 28th of November...20 days after the election.

This is the greatest show on earth at this stage.

TheDoctor

Gintonious wrote: »

I saw at the end of his latest rally, Trump really got the crowd going and urged them to register so they can vote on the 28th of November...20 days after the election.

This is the greatest show on earth at this stage.

Still rattled after the events of 7/11

TheDoctor

Gintonious wrote: »

I saw at the end of his latest rally, Trump really got the crowd going and urged them to register so they can vote on the 28th of November...20 days after the election.

This is the greatest show on earth at this stage.

I too would encourage his supporters to vote on November 28th

KingBrian2

Gintonious wrote: »

I saw at the end of his latest rally, Trump really got the crowd going and urged them to register so they can vote on the 28th of November...20 days after the election.

This is the greatest show on earth at this stage.

Well this is the presidency of America Ronald Reagan was an actor befitting his age and old honest Abe which i'm glad Trump brought up in the debate also was a Republican. The GOP always produce these crazy larger than life candidates. With Hillary she is boring and I truly hate her polices that I believe make America a pretty lousy country like wanting to provoke hostilities with Russia. Trump by far has the better policies IMO.

PopePalpatine

Christy42 wrote: »

Any evidence of these random claims? The gop's problem is that Trump's supporters are a majority in the gop but not in the populace so they can't please their voters and still be electablE given how polarising he is.

I haven't seen anything of Hillary polling badly with either democrats or independents. Indeed if she lost either of those groups she would be behind in the polls.

Breit(((hals)))bart, ZeroHedge, RT, Sputnik News, need I go on? :pac:

gosplan

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Well this is the presidency of America Ronald Reagan was an actor befitting his age and old honest Abe which i'm glad Trump brought up in the debate also was a Republican. The GOP always produce these crazy larger than life candidates. With Hillary she is boring and I truly hate her polices that I believe make America a pretty lousy country like wanting to provoke hostilities with Russia. Trump by far has the better policies IMO.

Would you concede that many of his policies are just ill thought out sound bytes?

I mean, what exactly did he say about fuels or health the other night when given the option?

His economic policy seems to pretty much stake everything on massive growth.

His jobs policy promises more jobs than currently unemployed.

TheDoctor

I have the best health/economic/jobs (insert as appropriate) policy. The best, believe me.

oik

Trump's Healthcare policy:

1. Completely repeal Obamacare. Our elected representatives must eliminate the
individual mandate. No person should be required to buy insurance unless he
or she wants to.
2. Modify existing law that inhibits the sale of health insurance across state lines.
As long as the plan purchased complies with state requirements, any vendor
ought to be able to offer insurance in any state. By allowing full competition in
this market, insurance costs will go down and consumer satisfaction will go
up.
3. Allow individuals to fully deduct health insurance premium payments from
their tax returns under the current tax system. Businesses are allowed to take
these deductions so why wouldn’t Congress allow individuals the same
exemptions? As we allow the free market to provide insurance coverage
opportunities to companies and individuals, we must also make sure that no
one slips through the cracks simply because they cannot afford insurance. We
must review basic options for Medicaid and work with states to ensure that
those who want healthcare coverage can have it.
4. Allow individuals to use Health Savings Accounts (HSAs). Contributions into
HSAs should be tax-free and should be allowed to accumulate. These accounts
would become part of the estate of the individual and could be passed on to
heirs without fear of any death penalty. These plans should be particularly
attractive to young people who are healthy and can afford high-deductible
insurance plans. These funds can be used by any member of a family without
penalty. The flexibility and security provided by HSAs will be of great benefit
to all who participate.
5. Require price transparency from all healthcare providers, especially doctors
and healthcare organizations like clinics and hospitals. Individuals should be
able to shop to find the best prices for procedures, exams or any other
medical-related procedure.
6. Block-grant Medicaid to the states. Nearly every state already offers benefits
beyond what is required in the current Medicaid structure. The state
governments know their people best and can manage the administration of
Medicaid far better without federal overhead. States will have the incentives
to seek out and eliminate fraud, waste and abuse to preserve our precious
resources.
7. Remove barriers to entry into free markets for drug providers that offer safe,
reliable and cheaper products. Congress will need the courage to step away
from the special interests and do what is right for America. Though the
pharmaceutical industry is in the private sector, drug companies provide a
public service. Allowing consumers access to imported, safe and dependable
drugs from overseas will bring more options to consumers.
The reforms outlined above will lower healthcare costs for all Americans.
They are simply a place to start. There are other reforms that might be
considered if they serve to lower costs, remove uncertainty and provide
financial security for all Americans. And we must also take actions in other
policy areas to lower healthcare costs and burdens. Enforcing immigration
laws, eliminating fraud and waste and energizing our economy will relieve the
economic pressures felt by every American. It is the moral responsibility of a
nation’s government to do what is best for the people and what is in the
interest of securing the future of the nation.

Providing healthcare to illegal immigrants costs us some $11 billion annually.
If we were to simply enforce the current immigration laws and restrict the
unbridled granting of visas to this country, we could relieve healthcare cost
pressures on state and local governments.
To reduce the number of individuals needing access to programs like
Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program we will need to install
programs that grow the economy and bring capital and jobs back to America.
The best social program has always been a job – and taking care of our
economy will go a long way towards reducing our dependence on public
health programs.
Finally, we need to reform our mental health programs and institutions in this
country. Families, without the ability to get the information needed to help
those who are ailing, are too often not given the tools to help their loved ones.
There are promising reforms being developed in Congress that should receive
bi-partisan support.
To reform healthcare in America, we need a President who has the leadership
skills, will and courage to engage the American people and convince Congress
to do what is best for the country. These straightforward reforms, along with
many others I have proposed throughout my campaign, will ensure that
together we will Make America Great Again.

oik

Hillary's healthcare planl:

Defend and expand the Affordable Care Act, which covers 20 million people. Hillary will stand up to Republican-led attacks on this landmark law—and build on its success to bring the promise of affordable health care to more people and make a “public option” possible. She will also support letting people over 55 years old buy into Medicare.

Bring down out-of-pocket costs like copays and deductibles. American families are being squeezed by rising out-of-pocket health care costs. Hillary believes that workers should share in slower growth of national health care spending through lower costs.
Reduce the cost of prescription drugs. Prescription drug spending accelerated from 2.5 percent in 2013 to 12.6 percent in 2014. It’s no wonder that almost three-quarters of Americans believe prescription drug costs are unreasonable. Hillary believes we need to demand lower drug costs for hardworking families and seniors. Read more here. Big Pharma didn't give her 15 million so she could pull this

Protect consumers from unjustified prescription drug price increases from companies that market long-standing, life-saving treatments and face little or no competition. Hillary’s plan includes new enforcement tools that make drug alternatives available and increase competition, broaden emergency access to high-quality treatments from developed countries with strong safety standards, and hold drug companies accountable for unjustified price increases with new penalties. Read more here. again who's your donors?

Fight for health insurance for the lowest-income Americans in every state by incentivizing states to expand Medicaid—and make enrollment through Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act easier.

Expand access to affordable health care to families regardless of immigration status. Hillary will expand access to affordable health care to families regardless of immigration status by allowing families to buy health insurance on the health exchanges regardless of their immigration status. and they say immigrants aren't voting

Expand access to rural Americans, who often have difficulty finding quality, affordable health care. Hillary will explore cost-effective ways to make more health care providers eligible for telehealth reimbursement under Medicare and other programs, including federally qualified health centers and rural health clinics.

Defend access to reproductive health care. Hillary will work to ensure that all women have access to preventive care, affordable contraception, and safe and legal abortion.

Double funding for community health centers, and support the healthcare workforce: As part of her comprehensive health care agenda, Hillary is committed to doubling the funding for primary-care services at community health centers over the next decade. Hillary also supports President Obama’s call for a near tripling of the size of the National Health Service Corps.

InTheTrees

oik wrote: »

Healthcare policy:

Trump's plan is basically the same republican position since george bush senior and has shown to be completely inadequate to tackle the problems.

There's nothing there that will tackle the out of control costs.

oik

InTheTrees wrote: »

Trump's plan is basically the same republican position since george bush senior and has shown to be completely inadequate to tackle the problems.

There's nothing there that will tackle the out of control costs.

"he doesn't have a policy"

*shown policy*

"his policy is inadequate"

*10 days later*

"he doesn't have a policy"

KingBrian2

gosplan wrote: »

Would you concede that many of his policies are just ill thought out sound bytes?

I mean, what exactly did he say about fuels or health the other night when given the option?

His economic policy seems to pretty much stake everything on massive growth.

His jobs policy promises more jobs than currently unemployed.

No they sound quite reasonable to most people. The gvt goes nowhere with the size of the deficit. Hillary is all for spending increases which will bankrupt America. Two wars that have not been paid for yet. Trump foresees hard times when the market comes to punish the country for not dealing with this issue.

InTheTrees

oik wrote: »

"he doesn't have a policy"

*shown policy*

"his policy is inadequate"

*10 days later*

"he doesn't have a policy"

No idea what that means.

If the garbled nonsense that trump comes up with gets too confusing there's always the GOP website.

gosplan

oik wrote: »

Hillary's healthcare planl:

Cheers,

Can I just ask two things?

Why couldn't Trump go beyond 'amazing plans' in the debate? Does he feel his plan is too complex or something?

Why would Hilary have to detail doners when Trumps plan is clearly going to cost quite a lot.

oik

InTheTrees wrote: »

No idea what that means.

If the garbled nonsense that trump comes up with gets too confusing there's always the GOP website.

I'm saying that people always say he has no policy until they're shown, and then they forget he has policies and go back to saying he has no policy, and on and on.

He has policy, he's just smart enough to know that Romney won every debate on the substance but lost the election because most of what he said went over the heads of most people.

People don't care about policy, which is probably a good thing because most of them aren't able to tell which policy is better.

Come the 3rd debate I predict Trump will drop a few policy bombs and for a lot of voters it will be enough to know that he has policy.

PopePalpatine

KingBrian2 wrote: »

No they sound quite reasonable to most people. The gvt goes nowhere with the size of the deficit. Hillary is all for spending increases which will bankrupt America. Two wars that have not been paid for yet. Trump foresees hard times when the market comes to punish the country for not dealing with this issue.

This is the guy who set up a mortgage company in 2006, which unsurprisingly went bankrupt. Then again, with a tax plan that will add $5 TRILLION to the national debt, maybe I can actually believe that he foresees hard times.

gosplan

What about this kind of analysis?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/donald-trump-v-hillary-clinton-comparing-the-cost-of-their-plans/

oik

gosplan wrote: »

Cheers,

Can I just ask two things?

Why couldn't Trump go beyond 'amazing plans' in the debate? Does he feel his plan is too complex or something?

Why would Hilary have to detail doners when Trumps plan is clearly going to cost quite a lot.

Because he knows that detail doesn't win debates and never has.

As I said above, it will be enough for people to know he has policies, and come the 3rd debate Clinton won't be prepared to critique his policies

If he brought them up at the last debate she'd probably be prepared to counter at the 3rd debate, so if he brings them up he'll get to present them virtually unchallenged.

gosplan

oik wrote: »

I'm saying that people always say he has no policy until they're shown, and then they forget he has policies and go back to saying he has no policy, and on and on.

He has policy, he's just smart enough to know that Romney won every debate on the substance but lost the election because most of what he said went over the heads of most people.

People don't care about policy, which is probably a good thing because most of them aren't able to tell which policy is better.

Come the 3rd debate I predict Trump will drop a few policy bombs and for a lot of voters it will be enough to know that he has policy.

Yes, his strategy has been so smart.

oik

gosplan wrote: »

What about this kind of analysis?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/donald-trump-v-hillary-clinton-comparing-the-cost-of-their-plans/

That only holds up if you believe that Trump will reduce taxes as much as he wants to and Clinton will tax the rich as much as she says she will.

I don't believe either of those two things will happen.

oik

gosplan wrote: »

Yes, his strategy has been so smart.

His strategy has been brilliant. The execution has been off at times with the Khans and some other comments. You can't strategise against old videos getting leaked. But his strategy has been superb.

oik

PopePalpatine wrote: »

This is the guy who set up a mortgage company in 2006, which unsurprisingly went bankrupt. Then again, with a tax plan that will add $5 TRILLION to the national debt, maybe I can actually believe that he foresees hard times.

As opposed to all those people who predicted the housing crisis in 2006?

All 5 of them?


It also never went bankrupt, it just ceased operations. Big difference.

InTheTrees

oik wrote: »

Because he knows that detail doesn't win debates and never has.

As I said above, it will be enough for people to know he has policies, and come the 3rd debate Clinton won't be prepared to critique his policies

If he brought them up at the last debate she'd probably be prepared to counter at the 3rd debate, so if he brings them up he'll get to present them virtually unchallenged.

Voting as already started in Ohio and more will follow so he better hurry up.

gosplan

oik wrote: »

That only holds up if you believe that Trump will reduce taxes as much as he wants to and Clinton will tax the rich as much as she says she will.

I don't believe either of those two things will happen.

Hmm, so it comes down to what we believe will happen rather than stated policies.

When you turn every discussion into arguing for the grey area...

Policies that will happen vrs those that you think won't

Shy voters who can't be accounted for

Opinions about bias

It's kind of pointless attempting an empirical debate, isn't it.

You believe in what Trump is saying/doing and evidence to the contrary is just an inconvenience.

gosplan

oik wrote: »

His strategy has been brilliant. The execution has been off at times with the Khans and some other comments. You can't strategise against old videos getting leaked. But his strategy has been superb.

No, he's running against the easiest opponent ever, bar himself.

I'm he had just pivoted slightly after the nomination, stuck to a good republican message, and not done anything stupid, this would have been a walk in the park.

oik

gosplan wrote: »

Hmm, so it comes down to what we believe will happen rather than stated policies.

When you turn every discussion into arguing for the grey area...

Policies that will happen vrs those that you think won't

Shy voters who can't be accounted for

Opinions about bias

It's kind of pointless attempting an empirical debate, isn't it.

You believe in what Trump is saying/doing and evidence to the contrary is just an inconvenience.

Their policies tell us what direction they want to go in but they don't tell us where they'll end up.

Trump says he wants to lower taxes to X%. That doesn't tell us that the tax rate next year will be X%, it just tells us it will probably be lower if he gets in.

Vice versa for Clinton.

Taking politicians at face value is pretty stupid imo.

oik

gosplan wrote: »

No, he's running against the easiest opponent ever, bar himself.

I'm he had just pivoted slightly after the nomination, stuck to a good republican message, and not done anything stupid, this would have been a walk in the park.

And what happens then when the Trump tape drops?

He's not running against the easiest opponent, he's running against someone who has the full force of the media (bar Fox) with them.

She doesn't even have to give interviews or appear in public, they do all her talking and attacking for her.

His only hope of winning is to drive up turnout among the base because the media will ensure that no matter if you're the straightest arrow who ever lived, like Romney, you'll be made to look like Hitler.

Itssoeasy

Trump is speaking at an event that's been shown on Fox News and he's claiming that online polls count as actual polls.

oik

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Trump is speaking at an event that's been shown on Fox News and he's claiming that online polls count as actual polls.

The power of positive thinking.

Itssoeasy

I'm not a fan oftrump but this is my first time watching one of his campaign events live.and I will say that even though he's talking to his base he actually does have a charisma that seems to get his base enthusiastic.

oik

The phrase "FOB" which stands for "Friends of Bill" has now entered the American political lexicon.

Very catchy.

Itssoeasy

oik wrote: »

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Trump is speaking at an event that's been shown on Fox News and he's claiming that online polls count as actual polls.

The power of positive thinking.

Even Fox News have told presenters that these online polls aren't scientific and aren't to be used unlike the other polling companies.

Itssoeasy

oik wrote: »

The phrase "FOB" which stands for "Friends of Bill" has now entered the American political lexicon.

Very catchy.

Oik a genuine question. Why exactly do you seem to be so behind Donald trump ?

Zubeneschamali

oik wrote: »

come the 3rd debate Clinton won't be prepared to critique his policies

The actual reason Trump doesn't give details on his policies is that he doesn't know what they are and doesn't care. He has campaign flunkies to copy Mitt Romney's policies and stick them on the website.

But if he does try your clever plan, he will find that the Clinton campaign read his website and that of the Republican party and Hillary has critiques ready in case Donald learns a few soundbites.

But really, that isn't his style.

gosplan

oik wrote: »

And what happens then when the Trump tape drops?

He's not running against the easiest opponent, he's running against someone who has the full force of the media (bar Fox) with them.

She doesn't even have to give interviews or appear in public, they do all her talking and attacking for her.

His only hope of winning is to drive up turnout among the base because the media will ensure that no matter if you're the straightest arrow who ever lived, like Romney, you'll be made to look like Hitler.

Easy to say but not true.

Negative Trump stories dominate the media because he keeps producing them ... all by himself.

As said elsewhere

Khans
Rosie
Russian hackers
Disabled reporters
Penis size
Miss universe
Latino judge
POWs

All Trumps doing and all newsworthy because it's just him.

On HRC's side you have the unwise us of the term deplorables.

All the other stuff the trump university, the Cuban stuff. That's more or less on par with all the stuff against Hillary.

If he had played it right, he would have had a massive lead before the tape stuff. Instead he already had people refusing to back him and a reputation for being a sexist chauvinistic buffoon.

He has blown it spectacularly.

oik

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Oik a genuine question. Why exactly do you seem to be so behind Donald trump ?

Because I actually want him to win.