2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

PopePalpatine

B_Wayne wrote: »

The fact that Trump has consistently engaged in racism during his campaign. Plus he has engaged in the Obama not being American conspiracy for years...

A prime example being his continued insistence that the Central Park Five - who have been proven totally innocent thanks to DNA testing - are still guilty of the horrific crime they were wrongfully imprisoned for.

alastair

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Read my post.

A poster said
"Stop cops executing black people = black supremacy!!!!!"


I'm arguing that its more nuanced that that, in the sense that there are plenty of black supremists out there using the "stop cops executing black people" as a cover for their hatred of whites.

BLM is not all peace loving people looking for justice, its full of white hating blacks too.

You're arguing that in response to a satirical reply to a claim that Clinton is courting black supremacy votes. There's no 'nuance' to that claim. It's simply nonsensical.

BTW; Black Lives Matter isn't a black suprematist movement, and just because the KKK lent their support to Trump's candidacy, that doesn't make Trump a guy who wears a pillow and burns crosses. You'll find idiotic outliers* for pretty much any group you care to mention. That doesn't mean they define those groups.

*the fact that there's a different, but just as idiotic, core to the Trump candidacy is besides the point.

blackcard

Hilary's lead back to 4 now in the latest poll. It ain't over until the fat lady sings .... and even then Donald may not accept tbe result.

nomadchocolate

B_Wayne wrote: »

The fact that Trump has consistently engaged in racism during his campaign. Plus he has engaged in the Obama not being American conspiracy for years...

Examples?

gosplan

nomadchocolate wrote: »

Absolute nonsense. Any proof to back up your statement?

Common sense.

He has a broader appeal but you can't deny he's surfing a wave of racism too.

Do you have any proof that I'm incorrect?

InTheTrees

blackcard wrote: »

Hilary's lead back to 4 now in the latest poll. It ain't over until the fat lady sings .... and even then Donald may not accept tbe result.

It doesnt really matter if trump accepts the result or not, its not required that he concede before Cinton claims victory.

Of course if there's actual legal challenges that he can make to dispute specific results he could try that. He'd need evidence though.

InTheTrees

blackcard wrote: »

Hilary's lead back to 4 now in the latest poll. It ain't over until the fat lady sings

Where is this "latest poll" from? There's 50 states.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

gosplan

blackcard wrote: »

Hilary's lead back to 4 now in the latest poll. It ain't over until the fat lady sings .... and even then Donald may not accept tbe result.

What's the poll.

Problem is Trump needs to flip 9 states.

Mr.Micro

blackcard wrote: »

Hilary's lead back to 4 now in the latest poll. It ain't over until the fat lady sings .... and even then Donald may not accept tbe result.

It's down to the wire. Trump still in the race and Clinton nowhere near home yet. So it's premature to be talking of him not accepting a result, as in a loss or a win? Both truly awful candidates, one bad, the other worse. To me it has been a very depressing campaign.

Fr Tod Umptious

alastair wrote: »

You're arguing that in response to a satirical reply to a claim that Clinton is courting black supremacy votes. There's no 'nuance' to that claim. It's simply nonsensical.

BTW; Black Lives Matter isn't a black suprematist movement, and just because the KKK lent their support to Trump's candidacy, that doesn't make Trump a guy who wears a pillow and burns crosses. You'll find idiotic outliers* for pretty much any group you care to mention. That doesn't mean they define those groups.

*the fact that there's a different, but just as idiotic, core to the Trump candidacy is besides the point.

I'm not saying BLM is a black supremists outfit, but there of elements of black supremists in it and using it as an outlet for their racism.

marienbad

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I'm not saying BLM is a black supremists outfit, but there of elements of black supremists in it and using it as an outlet for their racism.

any back up for that ?

Zubeneschamali

Mr.Micro wrote: »

It's down to the wire. Trump still in the race and Clinton nowhere near home yet.

Come off it, Paddy Power paid up on all bets on Hillary already - it is going to be the worst beating a major party candidate has gotten in many, many years.

Fr Tod Umptious

Mr.Micro wrote: »

It's down to the wire. Trump still in the race and Clinton nowhere near home yet. So it's premature to be talking of him not accepting a result, as in a loss or a win? Both truly awful candidates, one bad, the other worse. To me it has been a very depressing campaign.

And the great thing about it is everyone has an opinion on which is which.

InTheTrees

Mr.Micro wrote: »

It's down to the wire. Trump still in the race and Clinton nowhere near home yet.

Oh really? And which swing states do you see him winning then?

blackcard

InTheTrees wrote: »

blackcard wrote: »

Hilary's lead back to 4 now in the latest poll. It ain't over until the fat lady sings

Where is this "latest poll" from? There's 50 states.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Reuters/Ipsos national poll on friday

Amerika

InTheTrees wrote: »

Right wing smear campaigns arent hurting him at all, he'll go down as one of the best presidents.

That might be the most ridiculous thing I've read here. You think history is going to proclaim greatness on a President who blames his predecessor for poor economic conditions and who's far left progressive socialist agenda has done anything that advances America? Who's signature legislation, Obamacare, is rapidly deteriorating because of climbing healthcare costs - which it was guaranteed to reduce. A President responsible for the decimation of our national security and our military, and who sells the people on a false narrative propagated about the Iranian nuclear deal. The nation’s only President to preside over an economy that never exceeded 3% GDP growth. A President who worked so hard to bankrupt the coal industry and to decimate the oil and natural gas industry through regulatory fiat, and who has single handedly set race relations in America back decades. History is a fool if it does that.

ancapailldorcha

When you claim he set race relations back decades, I find it hard to take seriously anything else in that post.

gosplan

Amerika wrote: »

That might be the most ridiculous thing I've read here. You think history is going to proclaim greatness on a President who blames his predecessor for poor economic conditions and who's far left progressive socialist agenda has done anything that advances America? Who's signature legislation, Obamacare, is rapidly deteriorating because of climbing healthcare costs - which it was guaranteed to reduce. A President responsible for the decimation of our national security and our military, and who sells the people on a false narrative propagated about the Iranian nuclear deal. The nation’s only President to preside over an economy that never exceeded 3% GDP growth. A President who worked so hard to bankrupt the coal industry and to decimate the oil and natural gas industry through regulatory fiat, and who has single handedly set race relations in America back decades. History is a fool if it does that.

Didn't someone just say right wing smear campaigns won't hurt him?

gosplan

blackcard wrote: »

Reuters/Ipsos national poll on friday

This one has her nearly 10 up??

https://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/type/week/dates/20160901-20161021/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

Igotadose

Interesting thesis: Democratic presidents are better for the economy than Republican presidents, going back to Truman.

https://www.princeton.edu/~mwatson/papers/DemRep_BlinderWatson_July2015.pdf

Some excerpts:
"Closer inspection of quarterly data reveals that the five highest growth rates in the sample all
came under Democratic presidents, while four of the five lowest came under Republicans. "

"There is, however, a very large and statistically significant
difference in the change in the unemployment rate, computed as the average unemployment rate
in the final year of the term minus the average value in the final year of the previous term.
During Democratic presidential terms, the unemployment rate fell by 0.8 percentage points, on
average, while it rose by 1.1 percentage points, on average, during Republican terms--yielding a
large D-R gap of -1.9 percentage points"

And this bit about growth vs. control of Congress:

"Growth was highest when
Democrats controlled both houses of Congress and the White House (4.69%) and next highest
when a Democrat was president and Republicans controlled Congress (3.86%), although the
difference between these two averages is not statistically significant. In contrast, average growth
under Republican presidents was less than 3% regardless of which party controlled Congress.
Table 4 speaks clearly: It has been the president, not Congress, that mattered
"

marienbad

Amerika wrote: »

, and who has single handedly set race relations in America back decades. History is a fool if it does that.

How has Obama done this ?

gosplan

marienbad wrote: »

How has Obama done this ?

In the eyes of many I think it was having notions beyond his station as a black man.

Parts of the US are very segregated but then having a black president brings the issue to the fore for many who aren't really tolerant enough in this day and age.

alastair

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I'm not saying BLM is a black supremists outfit, but there of elements of black supremists in it and using it as an outlet for their racism.

If you apply the three degrees of separation formula, you could equally claim that Hillary's courting pretty much any vote - including the KKK. So why pretend there's any specific attempt to garner the black supremacy vote?

frostyjacks

Pro Hoc Vice wrote: »

2015

1,134 total number of young black men killed by police offices,


124 total number of police officers killed in the line of duty, of which 42 killed by gun fire.

90% of black homicide victims are killed by their own people. They just like to ignore that fact.

marienbad

frostyjacks wrote: »

90% of black homicide victims are killed by their own people. They just like to ignore that fact.

who is 'their own people' ? are they all not Americans

Pro Hoc Vice

frostyjacks wrote: »

90% of black homicide victims are killed by their own people. They just like to ignore that fact.

The figure I quoted was young black men killed by police officers. Are you saying all those police officers are black?

Fr Tod Umptious

marienbad wrote: »

who is 'their own people' ? are they all not Americans

Oh stop playing dumb.

Black people killing other black people, that's what the poster is talking about.

marienbad

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Oh stop playing dumb.

Black people killing other black people, that's what the poster is talking about.

so recognising when the veneer of civility is peeled away and the racism underneath exposed is now playing dumb is it ?

Fr Tod Umptious

marienbad wrote: »

so recognising when the veneer of civility is peeled away and the racism underneath exposed is now playing dumb is it ?

If I'm understanding this post correctly you are suggesting that the poster in question is a racist for using the term "their own people" to describe black on black crime.

If that's the case then its a huge accusation to make about another poster, worthy of a reporting possibly.

If its not then please enlighten me.

frostyjacks

marienbad wrote: »

who is 'their own people' ? are they all not Americans

They identify as African-Americans. They don't sing the anthem or stand for the flag. They promote segregation and disharmony. It's only going to get worse as well.

CMOTDibbler

frostyjacks wrote: »

They identify as African-Americans. They don't sing the anthem or stand for the flag. They promote segregation and disharmony. It's only going to get worse as well.

In terms of sweeping statements, this one takes the biscuit. So much said in so few words.

K-9

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I'm not saying BLM is a black supremists outfit, but there of elements of black supremists in it and using it as an outlet for their racism.

Of course it has, but when it's up against a police system that has some serious issues to deal with regarding race that will happen.

Shouting at each other who is the most racist isn't going to solve the problem or lead to even an understanding of the problems.

InTheTrees

blackcard wrote: »

Reuters/Ipsos national poll on friday

Actually I meant which state.

Up by 4% means little without knowing which state you're referring to.

marienbad

frostyjacks wrote: »

They identify as African-Americans. They don't sing the anthem or stand for the flag. They promote segregation and disharmony. It's only going to get worse as well.

I always find it astonishing when after over a 200 year history of slavery, lynching's ,jim crow , segregation , mass incarceration we are told its only going to get worse and it is the victims fault ?

What up side down world are we living in ?

K-9

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

When you claim he set race relations back decades, I find it hard to take seriously anything else in that post.

I'd say his Presidency brought to the surface race issues that had been hidden or taken for granted in many respects.

As for his Presidency, time will tell. I wouldn't class it as a great Presidency yet, but that's often the way. It takes 5 or 10 years to get a bigger picture with some degree of hindsight and objectivity.

George W. can be seen as a poor President and Clinton not as good as originally made out, same as Reagan in that respect.

gosplan

Funny the way this election has gone.

A lot of Trumps middle ground have disappeared left with the die hards saying it's not a racist campaign while being really racist.

BTW: 90% of the people black people know are probably black so the 90% crime stat makes sense.

If black people associate with less than 10% white people though it becomes a damning statistic.

K-9

frostyjacks wrote: »

They identify as African-Americans. They don't sing the anthem or stand for the flag. They promote segregation and disharmony. It's only going to get worse as well.

That's just a lazy, blanket generalisation that is frankly racist.

I wouldn't make such a lazy characterisation of white people because it's just dumb, so I don't know why anybody would do it for African Americans.

Mr.Micro

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

And the great thing about it is everyone has an opinion on which is which.

Well let's face it, the difference is which one is worse? Neither have qualities, both are jaded, faded and just bottom of the barrel. One a a Republican and the other thinks she is Democrat.

Black Swan

Amerika wrote: »

You think history is going to proclaim greatness on a President

Not sure what Mr or Ms History will someday proclaim about Obama as president, but one tiny, tiny indicator that they may observe was where presidents stood comparatively to each other in regards to presidential approval ratings given by Americans. Since Obama's term has yet to end, it may be appropriately cautious to compare recent presidents at the same time, or roughly just one month before the general election at the end of their 2nd term.

President | Year | 1-month before election
B. Clinton | 2000 | 57%
Eisenhower | 1960 | 58%
Obama | 2016 | 53%
Reagan | 1988 | 51%
GW Bush | 2008 | 25%

At this point it appears that Obama leads Republican dearly beloved Ronald Reagan, and is better than double Great Recession GW Bush's 25%.

Black Swan

It's been suggested that Florida is a must-win swing state for Trump if he is to win president 8 November 2016. FiveThirtyEight polls-only model today forecasts Clinton 72.7% and Trump 27.3%.

RCP most recent Florida polls today:

Poll | Clinton | Trump | Spread
Fox 13 | 49 | 45 | Clinton +4
Quinnipiac | 49 | 45 | Clinton +4
PPP | 49 | 44 | Clinton +5
Gravis | 46 | 42 | Clinton +4

Although I may be in error, methinks that Obama was about +2 in the polls in 2008 for Florida about a month before the election. Of course, the polls could tighten as 8 November 2016 gets closer, which tends to be a normal pattern for presidential elections, but I guess we will see.

alastair

Amerika wrote: »

That might be the most ridiculous thing I've read here. You think history is going to proclaim greatness on a President who blames his predecessor for poor economic conditions and who's far left progressive socialist agenda has done anything that advances America? Who's signature legislation, Obamacare, is rapidly deteriorating because of climbing healthcare costs - which it was guaranteed to reduce. A President responsible for the decimation of our national security and our military, and who sells the people on a false narrative propagated about the Iranian nuclear deal. The nation’s only President to preside over an economy that never exceeded 3% GDP growth. A President who worked so hard to bankrupt the coal industry and to decimate the oil and natural gas industry through regulatory fiat, and who has single handedly set race relations in America back decades. History is a fool if it does that.

There's just so much incorrect in this post, it's kind of hard to know where to begin, but why not GDP growth? The figure under GW Bush was 1.8%, and 2.26% under Daddy Bush, but it was a record -5.38% under Hoover, so no, Obama isn't the first (or second, or third) president to preside over growth under 3%.

As to the actual cost implications of Obamacare - check them out here and here.

gosplan

Texas is apparently now within the margin or error.

Nuts.

K-9

gosplan wrote: »

Texas is apparently now within the margin or error.

Nuts.

It seems to be considered a swing state now!

Black Swan

If Clinton does not win swing states Ohio and Florida, one of her main "firewall" states is Pennsylvania, where most polls for months have favoured her. Today's FiveThirtyEight forecasts a Pennsylvania win (using their polls-only model) for Clinton at 88.4% against a Trump 11.6%. This compares with RCP's most recent list of different polls today:

Poll | Clinton | Trump | Spread
Emerson | 45 | 41 | Clinton +4
Quinnipiac | 51 | 45 | Clinton +6
Bloomberg | 51 | 42 | Clinton +9
Susquehanna | 44 | 40 | Clinton +4
CBS News | 48 | 40 | Clinton +8

Once again there may be some narrowing of poll percentages as 8 November 2016 gets closer, but the fact that Clinton has generally led in almost all Pennsylvania polls may suggest that she will continue to do so up to the presidential election date.

Black Swan

gosplan wrote: »

Texas is apparently now within the margin or error.

Nuts.

The Dallas Morning News, one of Texas's largest circulation newspapers had endorsed Hillary Clinton and not Donald Trump early September 2016, which was the first time in 75 years that they endorsed a Democratic presidential nominee. Although the paper may be influential, methinks that Texas will remain Republican on 8 November 2016 given its past EC voting.

Itssoeasy

gosplan wrote: »

Texas is apparently now within the margin or error.

Nuts.

That is actually mental. I mean of all the states in the USA that you would put your house on of never even coming close to a swing state it's Texas.

Itssoeasy

Black Swan wrote: »

gosplan wrote: »

Texas is apparently now within the margin or error.

Nuts.

The Dallas Morning News, one of Texas's largest circulation newspapers had endorsed Hillary Clinton and not Donald Trump early September 2016, which was the first time in 75 years that they endorsed a Democratic presidential nominee. Although the paper may be influential, methinks that Texas will remain Republican on 8 November 2016 given its past EC voting.

Oh Texas will probably stay republican but it's possible it might be way closer than people think.

Overheal

frostyjacks wrote: »

90% of black homicide victims are killed by their own people. They just like to ignore that fact.

And how many whites kill whites? Oh, 82%? :rolleyes: I can't with you

Overheal

frostyjacks wrote: »

They identify as African-Americans. They don't sing the anthem or stand for the flag. They promote segregation and disharmony. It's only going to get worse as well.

That's a broad racist brush you have there.

A Little Pony

If Donald can't hold down the Southern states, then what chance has he with the yankee states? He needs to win a few of them.