2016 U.S. Presidential Race Megathread Mark 2.

InTheTrees

Itssoeasy wrote: »

That is actually mental. I mean of all the states in the USA that you would put your house on of never even coming close to a swing state it's Texas.

Utah is another but it looks like it might go to Mullin, the independent republican instead.

Black Swan

FiveThirtyEight has been credited with forecasting several past presidential elections correctly. Ohio historically has been one of the major swing states, but when 538's polls-only model is compared with their polls-plus fundamentals model they suggest a very close election between Clinton and Trump. The polls-only today forecasts a Clinton win at 60.1% over a Trump 39.9%, but their polls-plus shows Clinton 53.2% over Trump 46.8%, which methinks makes Ohio too close to call today. Perhaps that will change one way or the other between now and 8 November 2016?

Nody

Itssoeasy wrote: »

That is actually mental. I mean of all the states in the USA that you would put your house on of never even coming close to a swing state it's Texas.

Well I could see it from an ever increasing Hispanic population which will swing it over time.

Fr Tod Umptious

Black Swan wrote: »

Not sure what Mr or Ms History will someday proclaim about Obama as president, but one tiny, tiny indicator that they may observe was where presidents stood comparatively to each other in regards to presidential approval ratings given by Americans. Since Obama's term has yet to end, it may be appropriately cautious to compare recent presidents at the same time, or roughly just one month before the general election at the end of their 2nd term.

President | Year | 1-month before election
B. Clinton | 2000 | 57%
Eisenhower | 1960 | 58%
Obama | 2016 | 53%
Reagan | 1988 | 51%
GW Bush | 2008 | 25%

At this point it appears that Obama leads Republican dearly beloved Ronald Reagan, and is better than double Great Recession GW Bush's 25%.

I think a lot of it has to do with who will replace them.

With Clinton or Trump up next people may be giving Obama a bit more props than he really deserves.

frostyjacks

Overheal wrote: »

And how many whites kill whites? Oh, 82%? :rolleyes: I can't with you

So why aren't white people going round looting shops and attacking police? Five cops murdered by a black activist in Dallas, but Trump supporters are the real racists. Yeah right.

Sofa Spud

Black Swan wrote: »

FiveThirtyEight has been credited with forecasting several past presidential elections correctly. Ohio historically has been one of the major swing states, but when 538's polls-only model is compared with their polls-plus fundamentals model they suggest a very close election between Clinton and Trump. The polls-only today forecasts a Clinton win at 60.1% over a Trump 39.9%, but their polls-plus shows Clinton 53.2% over Trump 46.8%, which methinks makes Ohio too close to call today. Perhaps that will change one way or the other between now and 8 November 2016?

In fairness, Nate Silver is very credible, so if his model is throwing that out, then it'll at least add a bit of tension to stay up for...

Overheal

frostyjacks wrote: »

So why aren't white people going round looting shops and attacking police? Five cops murdered by a black activist in Dallas, but Trump supporters are the real racists. Yeah right.

That has - nothing? Nothing to do with white on white or black on black murder rates?

Your question is entirely disingenuous. But I'll answer: those looters and such do not feel invested in a society that is not in many ways invested in them.

But we will wait and see how many Trump supporters raise torches and rifles when he loses this election in a landslide I guess. It's hard to be upset at society in America though, as someone who is white, when there are frankly so many white privileges. For starters, not being treated like guilty until proven innocent in law enforcement scenarios.

oscarBravo

frostyjacks wrote: »

So why aren't white people going round looting shops and attacking police?

Let's get this clear: it's your assertion that white people don't loot shops or attack police?

Care to revise that position, or are you going to double down on what has to be a strong contender for the stupidest thing ever said on this forum?

alastair

frostyjacks wrote: »

So why aren't white people going round looting shops and attacking police?

They are. http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/king-white-men-killed-7-8-cops-u-s-year-article-1.2539913

Christy42

Sofa Spud wrote: »

In fairness, Nate Silver is very credible, so if his model is throwing that out, then it'll at least add a bit of tension to stay up for...

They have the election as essentially over. I can't see the state of ohio by itself being worth staying up for.

Overheal

Christy42 wrote: »

They have the election as essentially over. I can't see the state of ohio by itself being worth staying up for.

She could get on a podium tonight, officially cede Ohio, and still win 300 EVs

frostyjacks

oscarBravo wrote: »

Let's get this clear: it's your assertion that white people don't loot shops or attack police?

Care to revise that position, or are you going to double down on what has to be a strong contender for the stupidest thing ever said on this forum?

Plenty of white people get shot by the police. You never see the National Guard called in to restore order afterwards. Why is that?

Overheal

frostyjacks wrote: »

Plenty of white people get shot by the police. You never see the National Guard called in to restore order afterwards. Why is that?

You may be forgetting when the Guard had to be called into Alabama to protect the right of Blacks to attend the same school as Whites.

CMOTDibbler

frostyjacks wrote: »

Plenty of white people get shot by the police. You never see the National Guard called in to restore order afterwards. Why is that?

Wild guess here, but perhaps they are armed and not lying on the ground getting handcuffed?

ancapailldorcha

Back on topic, please. This thread is about the election, not racial violence in the US.

BorneTobyWilde

''Pinheads''

Guiliani just said Hilarys supporters are pinheads .

alastair

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

''Pinheads''

Guiliani just said Hilarys supporters are pinheads .

Remind me why anyone should listen to anything Guiliani has to say?

aloyisious

Pinheads do be dangerous things for bubbles, and there are millions of them.

Trent Houseboat

I wonder does Guliani worry that he's ruined his legacy.
The room full of NY elites laughing at him at the Al E Smith yoke would have been unthinkable a few years back when he was thought if as America's Mayor. And he's sitting there sour-faced not even pretending to laugh because he knows he's lost all credibility.

TheDoctor

Not sure his logic behind becoming spokesman for the Trump campaign.

PopePalpatine

TheDoctor wrote: »

Not sure his logic behind becoming spokesman for the Trump campaign.

I'd guess it's those "New York values" Cruz was castigating Trump for. :pac:

Carcharodon

Amerika wrote: »

InTheTrees wrote: »

Right wing smear campaigns arent hurting him at all, he'll go down as one of the best presidents.

That might be the most ridiculous thing I've read here. You think history is going to proclaim greatness on a President who blames his predecessor for poor economic conditions and who's far left progressive socialist agenda has done anything that advances America? Who's signature legislation, Obamacare, is rapidly deteriorating because of climbing healthcare costs - which it was guaranteed to reduce. A President responsible for the decimation of our national security and our military, and who sells the people on a false narrative propagated about the Iranian nuclear deal. The nation s only President to preside over an economy that never exceeded 3% GDP growth. A President who worked so hard to bankrupt the coal industry and to decimate the oil and natural gas industry through regulatory fiat, and who has single handedly set race relations in America back decades. History is a fool if it does that.

Look seriously, come on, join reality for just a few minutes, leave the hate at the door for just a little while.
Firstly, it's not a matter of blaming the previous president for the poor economic conditions he inherited, it's just a fact that these poor economic conditions existed, many of us lived through it and it was incredibly tough, under Obama I've been able to achieve success, start a new business, use Obamacare to keep my insurance from previous employer. Do I think he is personally responsible for this, no, many factors are in place but it's a fact he has presided over this recovery.
I would love to know what decimation of military you talk of, that's just pure nonsense, don't just lie.
You say he worked so hard to bankrupt coal industry, another lie, you think America should be doubling down on these industries, the future is renewable energy, an idiot can see that, republicans act like people love working in the coal mines as if it some dream job and the only one available, why would we want the next generation of kids working in this industry ?
Race relations have been set back decades??? Jesus, you've already been debunked my many on here about that, another clear lie, has he revoked their right to vote, reintroduced segregation?????
I suppose he has also made a mistake in being progressive for gay rights ?
Just leave the bubble man, it's not so bad outside it

K-9

Mod:
Cut out the accusations of lying and the idiot comments please.

Billy86

Is it fair at this point that we at least ask Amerika to show in what way they are possibly true?

How can it honestly be said that Obama is 'far left' or 'socialist'?
How can it honestly be said that the US military has been decimated since 2008?
...but most importantly...
How can it honestly be said that Obama -and I am quoting Amerika directly here- "single handedly set race relations in America back decades."?

Overheal

How can the military be decimated if we still have our global presence and are essentially involved in 5 wars..

http://theweek.com/articles/655826/why-wont-anyone-admit-that-america-fighting-5-wars

CMOTDibbler

Just looking at the RCP site. Yesterday it was Clinton 262, Trump 170 with 112 in play.

Now it's still Clinton 262, but Trump is down to 126 and 150 are in play.

That's a massive shift. Texas and Georgia are now toss ups? :eek:

TheDoctor

Alaska moving towards a toss up on 538.

Overheal

They haven't even been able to update the order of their "Path to 270" graphic to keep up with how much red states are losing confidence across the board

Meanwhile all of the blue states are solidly held up to and past the 270 mark.

A Little Pony

Still think Trump will win, just got that feeling. Can see the working class who hate Hillary voting Trump in unprecedented numbers.

alastair

A Little Pony wrote: »

Still think Trump will win, just got that feeling. Can see the working class who hate Hillary voting Trump in unprecedented numbers.

Feelings don't really cut it in the face of polled data. Trump's not going to win this. Interesting breakdown of Trump's support from Septemver - pre hot mic video - he was getting a significant portion of his vote from older working class women. You'd have to assume that this must have been impacted negatively subsequently by the focus on his attitude to women, but perhaps not?

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/dissecting-donald-trumps-support/499739/

CMOTDibbler

A Little Pony wrote: »

Still think Trump will win, just got that feeling. Can see the working class who hate Hillary voting Trump in unprecedented numbers.

Nows the time to put a couple of ponies on that if you're that confident. Could be a real Christmas present for you.

Billy86

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

Just looking at the RCP site. Yesterday it was Clinton 262, Trump 170 with 112 in play.

Now it's still Clinton 262, but Trump is down to 126 and 150 are in play.

That's a massive shift. Texas and Georgia are now toss ups? :eek:

I saw Georgia yesterday but had not seen Texas! They put states in as 'toss up' when the average polling difference is below 5.0 and... Indiana is now at exactly 5.0, meaning there's a very strong chance it will be Trump sitting on just 115 if another poll comes in during the week from there (the most recent was Oct 16th).

I wasn't sure if I had overshot it, but no - at this rate Trump really does look like he might even struggle to get above 100 EC votes. Odds certainly are that he will, but that is startling nonetheless.

Say hello to 10-25 years of a liberal Supreme Court.

The Senate race looks like it will be extremely close, though keep in mind the Dem's will have an extra half seat (100 total) with Tim Kaine as president, plus the two independents - Sanders and King - lean far more Dem than Rep, and neither have to contest their seat this time around. Basically, landing on 48 seats gives them a tiny advantage, and 51 the majority of course.

The Republicans seem to have salvaged the House since running away from Trump at light speed a few weeks back - looks like 224(R) vs 190(D) with another 21 too close to call right now.

Billy86

A Little Pony wrote: »

Still think Trump will win, just got that feeling. Can see the working class who hate Hillary voting Trump in unprecedented numbers.

Then I'll give you the same offer I gave another poster the other day (who took me up on it, and credit to them) - if Trump wins, I will (edit: typo) donate €100 to a charity of your choosing online. If Clinton wins, you only have to donate €5 to a charity of my choosing online.

It's for a good cause either way, and if you really actually do think Trump will win, there is no way you could turn down 20/1 odds.

Deal?

InTheTrees

A Little Pony wrote: »

Still think Trump will win, just got that feeling. Can see the working class who hate Hillary voting Trump in unprecedented numbers.

Really? You think the working class are going to vote for the anti-union right wing hotel owner?

Why?

He's against the minimum wage, health insurance reform, minority rights, unions, etc

He also wants to privitise social security.

Except for some vague talk about jobs I don't see that he has anything to offer the working class at all.

Itssoeasy

alastair wrote: »

Feelings don't really cut it in the face of polled data. Trump's not going to win this. Interesting breakdown of Trump's support from Septemver - pre hot mic video - he was getting a significant portion of his vote from older working class women. You'd have to assume that this must have been impacted negatively subsequently by the focus on his attitude to women, but perhaps not?

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/dissecting-donald-trumps-support/499739/

I don't think a brexit type shock will happen.

aloyisious

CNN Politics reporting that Hillary is ahead of Don by 12 points in the latest ABC News tracking poll........ https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwif_Ye20PHPAhVqJMAKHd-KCe4QqQIIHjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2016%2F10%2F23%2Fpolitics%2Fhillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls%2F&usg=AFQjCNEyjlI3Y4SYiHf2ZI3uKU9NgoD56w

Suryavarman

K-9 wrote: »

Mod:
Cut out the accusations of lying and the idiot comments please.

If Amerika and KingBrian would stop being liars and idiots it would be a lot easier.

K-9

alastair wrote: »

Feelings don't really cut it in the face of polled data. Trump's not going to win this. Interesting breakdown of Trump's support from Septemver - pre hot mic video - he was getting a significant portion of his vote from older working class women. You'd have to assume that this must have been impacted negatively subsequently by the focus on his attitude to women, but perhaps not?

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/dissecting-donald-trumps-support/499739/

He was on 70-80% of the actual Republican women's vote before the tapes so I doubt it got much higher.

His task was to reverse the high unfavorable ratings amongst women to stand a chance of getting elected, that went well!

K-9

Suryavarman banned until the election is over.

Rightwing

I don't envy the American electorate, 2 very weak and ugly candidates. Clinton will win by default.

But it is going to be a very tough time for whoever wins, a bit like biffo winning here in 2007. I'm expecting carnage during her presidency.

Alonso77

aloyisious wrote: »

CNN Politics reporting that Hillary is ahead of Don by 12 points in the latest ABC News tracking poll........ https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwif_Ye20PHPAhVqJMAKHd-KCe4QqQIIHjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2016%2F10%2F23%2Fpolitics%2Fhillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls%2F&usg=AFQjCNEyjlI3Y4SYiHf2ZI3uKU9NgoD56w

If that poll is accurate then its over (as expected). No way he is overturning 12 points this close to election day

CMOTDibbler

Alonso77 wrote: »

If that poll is accurate then its over (as expected). No way he is overturning 12 points this close to election day

That's just in the popular vote. He's behind in so many states that even Texas and Georgia are now in the toss up category.

He could still win them, but he's now assured of just 126 EVs and some of those are only leaning his way. Utah could go to McMullin for example.

TheDoctor

K-9 wrote: »

Suryavarman banned until the election is over.

Its basically over now

aloyisious

Sometimes I have a WTF moment. Watching this video interview of a lifelong democrat supporting Don Trump gave me one....... I presume the use of democrat might refer to a belief, and not one's political party of choice. even though Don himself a day or two ago said he had been a democrat.

http://www.thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/davidbadash/anyone_who_votes_for_clinton_is_aiding_and_abetting_in_the_murder_of_homosexuals

Brian?

This just occurred to me how Trump and Clinton are viewed by Trump supporters.

Hillary Clinton grew up in a middle class home. Worked her way through college and managed to graduate from Yale law. Viewed as out of touch with the working man due to her wealth and political status.

Donald Trump grew up in a wealthy Manhattan family. Borrowed money from his father, more than once, to find a real estate business. Viewed as in touch with the working class and a champion of the working man.

Billy86

Brian? wrote: »

This just occurred to me how Trump and Clinton are viewed by Trump supporters.

Hillary Clinton grew up in a middle class home. Worked her way through college and managed to graduate from Yale law. Viewed as out of touch with the working man due to her wealth and political status.

Donald Trump grew up in a wealthy Manhattan family. Borrowed money from his father, more than once, to find a real estate business. Viewed as in touch with the working class and a champion of the working man.

This stopped being a political race and became a psychological study quite a long time ago to be honest.

Jan_de_Bakker

Fantastic speech , you won't see this in the MSM
https://youtu.be/t3PgJkuczHU?t=59

marienbad

Jan_de_Bakker wrote: »

Fantastic speech , you won't see this in the MSM
https://youtu.be/t3PgJkuczHU?t=59

I quote ''...... to protect and enrich itself ''

- a perfect description of Trump himself and his business practices . Trump the outsider ! give me a break

TheDoctor

Iowa looks to be the closest state at the moment.

On 538 flipped red in the last few days.

Billy86

TheDoctor wrote: »

Iowa looks to be the closest state at the moment.

On 538 flipped red in the last few days.

On one hand, it's not too relevant a state in this election as they only have 6 college votes and the race is already over, but on the other, it will be interesting to see how much the Clinton campaign manages to "run up the score" on Trump for Nov 8th.