Price Changes 2016/2017 - OP updated 15/12/16

keano_afc

Played WC yesterday and had 2 of the risers, so happy with that.

Mint Sauce

Hazard survived the drop last night! Was sure he was for a fall.

Got Aguero in before the rise last night, wanted to hold off, but no funds there.

Dont be at yourself

Aguero rise means I had to settle for Firmino over Mane, bah!

basillarkin

shaw a likely faller this week?

Scorpion Sting

Up:




Down:



Ibrahimović, Hazard, Özil, Downing, Navas, Wanyama, J. Ward, Chambers, Ojo, Crouch, Browning, Okaka

iroced

@ Scorpion Sting: This one's better for Ibra down :pac:. Particularly from such a lovely player as Rio Mavuba :cool:.



Just for information: this freeze-frame came from a PSG fanblog. There was no punch. In reality Zlatan pushed Mavuba in the back and Mavuba replied by slap-pushing him back. But Mavuba (30 cm smaller) pushing down Ibra was kinda hilarious.

clairewithani

FFS Hazard!!

P.Walnuts

Chambers dropping is an unpleasant surprise, expected him to be in the team by now....surely Wenger didn't loan him out to sit on the bench

Mint Sauce

Ibra and Hazard falling are my first drop in team value. Keeping faith though.

Markx

Cannot remember a drop like the one Hazard has had over the last few days, particularly given he isn't injured.

Iused2likebusts

Markx wrote: »

Cannot remember a drop like the one Hazard has had over the last few days, particularly given he isn't injured.

Ye its mental.

Gaillimh1976

Markx wrote: »

Cannot remember a drop like the one Hazard has had over the last few days, particularly given he isn't injured.

Think a lot of people are doing Hazard to KDB after last weekend

elefant

I think people are evacuating the Hazard bus too quickly...

the groutch

Gaillimh1976 wrote: »

Think a lot of people are doing Hazard to KDB after last weekend

and I look forward to seeing Hazard outscoring KDB at the weekend.

Gaillimh1976

the groutch wrote: »

and I look forward to seeing Hazard outscoring KDB at the weekend.

Me too - have both !!

billymitchell

Markx wrote: »

Cannot remember a drop like the one Hazard has had over the last few days, particularly given he isn't injured.

It's more than likely related to making funds available to get Kun back in

Mint Sauce

Alot of panic buys and sells going on.

ScummyMan

Is Hazards drop capped at 0.3 or can he drop again? This is getting ridiculous

Mint Sauce

ScummyMan wrote: »

Is Hazards drop capped at 0.3 or can he drop again? This is getting ridiculous

Three drops or rises between GWs is the max.

FFFix is showing next change is the next GW as well.

F1ngers

ScummyMan wrote: »

Is Hazards drop capped at 0.3 or can he drop again? This is getting ridiculous

Mint Sauce wrote: »

Three drops or rises between GWs is the max.

FFFix is showing next change is the next GW as well.

Had a look at the FPL site and I can't see where it says 3 drops per GW is the max.
Not saying it's not there, just can't find it.

All I could find was this:

Once the season has started, player prices may change by £0.1m a day, based on activity in the transfer market.

Porthallian

I got him at 10m. so I think as he went up to 10.3 I've only lost 0.1m by holding this week?

Wasn't paying attention anyway but I might end up holding him until Saturday.

iroced

Sanchez, KDB & 'Pool mids in great form in teams more attack-minded.
Freeing funds for Agüero.

And there's also a "technical" explanation: the threshold for "popular" players whose price has risen above its starting value is smaller. Because drops thresholds are roughly based on 10% ownership (> 100k for Hazard cuurrently) while it is just the negative NTI (net transfers in) threshold for a drop above the starting price of any player. And this threshold is like 40-50k (from observations made by the prediction sites).

---

F1ngers wrote: »

Had a look at the FPL site and I can't see where it says 3 drops per GW is the max.
Not saying it's not there, just can't find it.

That's fiso's legacy purely based on observation. It was blatant 3 years ago when price changes were flying. You had players at something like 400% sometimes on deadline day for a 4th rise that never happened before the next GW. And so far it has still never happened (even when statistically possible).

wonski

It was capped at 0.3 max change for at least 3 years ( since I play).

Of course there is nothing to stop them from changing this

Colking

ScummyMan wrote: »

Is Hazards drop capped at 0.3 or can he drop again? This is getting ridiculous

My understanding is that it's capped at 3 per week, but if he builds up enough sales to warrant another drop it's held over until Friday night (the Start of this particular Gameweek) when it will then go ahead. If Saturday was the start it would go ahead Saturday night (by night I really mean Sunday ~ 2 am)

I could be wrong or things could have changed this year.

manual_man

Great opportunity missed last night to post this

8-10

Colking wrote: »

My understanding is that it's capped at 3 per week, but if he builds up enough sales to warrant another drop it's held over until Friday night (the Start of this particular Gameweek) when it will then go ahead. If Saturday was the start it would go ahead Saturday night (by night I really mean Sunday ~ 2 am)

I could be wrong or things could have changed this year.

I think increases are capped at 0.3 but don't think there's a decrease limit

manual_man

Colking wrote: »

My understanding is that it's capped at 3 per week, but if he builds up enough sales to warrant another drop it's held over until Friday night (the Start of this particular Gameweek) when it will then go ahead. If Saturday was the start it would go ahead Saturday night (by night I really mean Sunday ~ 2 am)

I could be wrong or things could have changed this year.

This gameweek starts on Saturday

manual_man

re. Aguero - he's still red-flagged. Should this not have been removed now his suspension has been served?

edit: scratch that Man City still to play in EFL

wonski

manual_man wrote: »

re. Aguero - he's still red-flagged. Should this not have been removed now his suspension has been served?

It has not been served yet.

manual_man

wonski wrote: »

It has not been served yet.

My baaaaaad

FHFC

Hazard should not drop again unless the 3 drops per week rule (which is widely thought to be the rule) has changed.

But also, he is unlikely to drop again even after the end of the week. Iroced already referred to the reason.

For a player to rise in price the need a certain number of NTI (Nett Transfers In). This varies and is not known exactly but FPL Statistics seem to reckon its around 45,000 this year.

If a player has already risen above their original price then for a drop they need to shed the same amount of transfers as it took to rise. But for a player who has never risen in price, or has dropped back to their original price, the amount of NTO for a drop is estimated at around 10% of ownership.

So taking the Hazard example, for the three drops this week he only needed around 45k transfers out as he had previously risen three times. But to drop again, based on current ownership, he'd need around 110k transfers out.

Same applied when Aguero dropped back to 13.0 quite quickly but took ages to finally go to 12.9.

But beware, as the same applies to any player who has risen rapidly, but suddenly goes out of favour. Zlatan is in the same boat as Hazard and could drop quite quickly. Only 45k nett sales per drop till he gets back to 11.5m rather than over 220k if it was based on 10% of ownership.

wonski

From Fpl statistics:

Chgs: Denotes the number of price changes so far this gameweek. A player can rise or fall by up to £0.3m in a single gameweek. Once this limit is reached all additional transfers are retained such that in the following gameweek, if the required threshold is reached, an automatic rise or fall in price of £0.1m will occur.

FHFC

wonski wrote: »

From Fpl statistics:

Chgs: Denotes the number of price changes so far this gameweek. A player can rise or fall by up to £0.3m in a single gameweek. Once this limit is reached all additional transfers are retained such that in the following gameweek, if the required threshold is reached, an automatic rise or fall in price of £0.1m will occur.

Yeah, they tweeted this earlier too. The 3 rise / 3 drop thing is pretty much accepted and has never been proven wrong.

https://twitter.com/fpl_statistics/status/778520326527418368

wonski

FHFC wrote: »

Yeah, they tweeted this earlier too. The 3 rise / 3 drop thing is pretty much accepted and has never been proven wrong.

https://twitter.com/fpl_statistics/status/778520326527418368

The important bit is that if the threshold for drop was reached it is retained rather than reset.

That's my understanding. This means that if Hazard was due fourth drop it would happen on Saturday night "automatically".

I hope we are not going to find out if it is true or not.

FHFC

wonski wrote: »

The important bit is that if the threshold for drop was reached it is retained rather than reset.

That's my understanding. This means that if Hazard was due fourth drop it would happen on Saturday night "automatically".

I hope we are not going to find out if it is true or not.

Yeah that's the case. Seen it happen before especially with rises.

However for his next drop it will need almost as many transfers out as for the first 3 put together. About 2.5 times more than for the previous drops.

Colking

manual_man wrote: »

This gameweek starts on Saturday

Thanks, for some reason I had it in my head it was a Friday.

SlickRic

People are getting off the Hazard train do fast that I might just do Ozil ---> Mané instead of getting rid of Hazard.

I think it's people funding City attacking coverage and/or Sanchez. It's understandable but unbelievably kneekjerk.

km79

SlickRic wrote: »

People are getting off the Hazard train do fast that I might just do Ozil ---> Mané instead of getting rid of Hazard.

I think it's people funding City attacking coverage and/or Sanchez. It's understandable but unbelievably kneekjerk.

If I want aguero it's either him or Ibra
Ibra has scored attacking points every game and had back to back home games . Defoe would also have to stay
Hazard to snodgrass is a crazy downgrade alright but need aguero. Defoe would stay

Porthallian

km79 wrote: »

SlickRic wrote: »

People are getting off the Hazard train do fast that I might just do Ozil ---> Man instead of getting rid of Hazard.

I think it's people funding City attacking coverage and/or Sanchez. It's understandable but unbelievably kneekjerk.

If I want aguero it's either him or Ibra
Ibra has scored attacking points every game and had back to back home games . Defoe would also have to stay
Hazard to snodgrass is a crazy downgrade alright but need aguero. Defoe would stay

Defoe has 2 home games but seems to score most of his points away.
Should this be concerning me as much as it is? :P

Tempted to bring in Benteke/Deeney.

mectavba

I think a lot of people are seeing Hazard v Arsenal next and jumping ship, especially as he has had 2 blanks in a row. Getting Aguero in, keeping Ibra, Sanchez was my main reason for dumping him, but in three weeks after Utd's 2 cushy fixtures if Ibra/Man U look like they are not firing all cylinders, I will be looking to get him back in.

My problem with Hazard is that he never seems to get week after week returns. The good returns are always separated by blanks...usually away from home. A lot of money on someone who has this pattern.

km79

Porthallian wrote: »

Defoe has 2 home games but seems to score most of his points away.
Should this be concerning me as much as it is? :P

Tempted to bring in Benteke/Deeney.

I made late decision to start Defoe ahead of Capoue due to his away goals stats
That went well

Bleating Lamb

Have myself in a muddle needlessly,just checking, bought Ibra at 11.6....he's currently at 11.8....Can't I still afford to let him drop to 11.7m before his resale value would be affected for me?
Thanks for any replies.

Scorpion Sting

Bleating Lamb wrote: »

Have myself in a muddle needlessly,just checking, bought Ibra at 11.6....he's currently at 11.8....Can't I still afford to let him drop to 11.7m before his resale value would be affected for me?
Thanks for any replies.

No, you would lose .1 resale on him.

Bleating Lamb

Scorpion Sting wrote: »

No, you would lose .1 resale on him.

Going to hold him for Stoke game anyway.

titan18

Hazard has rather awful fixtures tbf aswell. Next 9, has Arsenal, Leicester, United, Everton, Spurs and City. Could be a lot of meh returns for a player at his price point in those games. KDB and Sanchez have much more favourable fixtures.

Along with Hazard's form being poor enough for his price, and Costa being cheaper and performing better in the Chelsea attack, it makes it easy to dump him atm.

isntlee

Also there's some room for Hazard to fall yet, and it probably will, don't do it. Have you got Sterling, cause De Bruyne is far less likely to score with Aguero back, Sterling won't be as affected

basillarkin

isntlee wrote: »

Also there's some room for Hazard to fall yet, and it probably will, don't do it. Have you got Sterling, cause De Bruyne is far less likely to score with Aguero back, Sterling won't be as affected

explanation for the KdeB likely not to score because Augero is back please?

2nd Row Donkey

basillarkin wrote:

explanation for the KdeB likely not to score because Augero is back please?

because...


... Aliens.

iroced

Nacho not scoring tonight certainly means he won't get a second rise.

By the way, Agüero is officially deflagged and should now see his price protected for 8 days.


- edit -

Huge difference about Jakupovic between FPLS (rising or about to tonight) and FFF (<+70%). Let's see who's correct.

shineon23

Up:
Rondon

Down:
Barkley
Rooney
Dier
Livermore
Musa
Lenihan
Mikel
Nkoudo
Cullen
Holgate
Nordtveit
Feghouli