Price Changes 2016/2017 - OP updated 15/12/16

Porthallian

FHFC wrote: »

By the looks of it already rises are going to be VERY slow this week.

The three biggest nights are the Sat and Sunday at the start of the GW and the Friday before deadline. No rises last night is a very slow start.

I think people who want to accomodate the big players they don't have so far (mainly Hazard and Sanchez) will be forced to wildcard to fit in their premium price tags.

I'm even hopeful Sanchez won't rise at all this GW as I'd expect Hazard to be a bit more popular with the casual army who drive these things.

Cancel wildcard plans then?
Had planned to chase the rises for TV but if not many forthcoming then might sit on it til GW5.

CSF

Porthallian wrote: »

Cancel wildcard plans then?
Had planned to chase the rises for TV but if not many forthcoming then might sit on it til GW5.

I think chasing price rises is the wrong reason to wildcard. I mean absolutely, when you wildcard, chase rises to as best as you can get them, but I don't think it should be WHY you wildcard.

If you felt your team was in need of overhaul before you read about the rises, then you should still now. If you didn't then I don't think wildcard was ever a good option.

FHFC

Sometimes I think I'm wasting my time saying this. Buts let's try again.

Chasing rises on a wildcard is a myth.

q2ice

FHFC wrote: »

Sometimes I think I'm wasting my time saying this. Buts let's try again.

Chasing rises on a wildcard is a myth.

I agree. I think it only works if there are not that many others using their wildcard.
The international break is the time when a lot of people wildcard so I don't think there will be much rises. Also, people making 1/2 transfers will more than likely wait until the final week before making transfers - in case a player gets injured on international duty.

I don't think wildcard transfers are included in the price rises/drops (could be wrong). As such, the number of wildcards skews any price change predictions. Apparently there were a lot of wildcards in play for GW3

CSF

FHFC wrote: »

Sometimes I think I'm wasting my time saying this. Buts let's try again.

Chasing rises on a wildcard is a myth.

I wouldn't agree with your phrasing of that. There are about a million myths associated with chasing rises but it's not a myth in itself.

Yes, the number of rises has dropped significantly since they took wildcards out of the calculation, but you could still be looking at .2 or .3 added value to your team. That could be the difference between the 6.5 striker who has done nowt, or being able to stretch your budget to Negredo. The little things.

I've played my wildcard on a week that looks poorly placed for price rises which shows you how much stock I place in chasing .2s nowadays but that won't stop me trying to eek out that extra .1 or .2 wherever I can so I can sign the form players instead of having to settle to what were their price equivalents at the start of the season.

FHFC

CSF wrote: »

I wouldn't agree with your phrasing of that. There are about a million myths associated with chasing rises but it's not a myth in itself.

Yes, the number of rises has dropped significantly since they took wildcards out of the calculation, but you could still be looking at .2 or .3 added value to your team. That could be the difference between the 6.5 striker who has done nowt, or being able to stretch your budget to Negredo. The little things.

I've played my wildcard on a week that looks poorly placed for price rises which shows you how much stock I place in chasing .2s nowadays but that won't stop me trying to eek out that extra .1 or .2 wherever I can so I can sign the form players instead of having to settle to what were their price equivalents at the start of the season.

Was a quick post so I didn't go into explaining it fully (again).

Yes it is very possible to significantly increase your team budget for the rest of the season by playing the wildcard probably around GW3 to GW5.

But when the poster was talking about chasing rises I was taking it they meant chasing players who would rise 0.2 in the week to bank resale value. And this is a myth. It just doesn't happen to the extent to be in any way a significant factor.

The gains are 80 if not 90% from dodging the raindrops in the deluge of price drops and getting key players in at their starting price or close to it. And the very few players that do go up twice in the GW are usually the same ones. For example Hazard is one of the few (possibly the only) potential 0.2 rises this week. But he is in the later category, a key form player you need to get, so you're not gaining there from chasing his 0.2 rise, you are gaining by getting him for at least 0.2 less than somebody who is forced to wait.

The only realy way to bank resale is to get on the bandwagons in each price range (e.g. Negredo picking up huge transfers from Gray will see him rise a lot) and keep for 2 or 3 weeks min to get a bankable 0.2 or 0.3 by the time you need rid.

I'm probably waiting till next week as I have been fortunte to have the key men in from the start and have havmd very few droppers to dodge. That's meant missing the likes of Negredo as a value builder, and have also missed a rise on Shaw but can go for Valencia.

CSF

I agree with pretty much all of what you say except how you phrase it. I definitely wouldn't view an extra 0.2/3 onto my team as being mythical. Makes a big difference at the early stage when you get the guy who has earned himself from a 6.5 to a 6.6, 8.5 to 8.6 etc through good form.

FHFC

CSF wrote: »

I agree with pretty much all of what you say except how you phrase it. I definitely wouldn't view an extra 0.2/3 onto my team as being mythical. Makes a big difference at the early stage when you get the guy who has earned himself from a 6.5 to a 6.6, 8.5 to 8.6 etc through good form.

I'd be amazed if there was 0.2 or 0.3 to be made on players you don't want to keep in your team any of these early wildcard weeks.

People still widely see adding considerably more than 0.2 or 0.3 to their RV as a factor in wildcarding when in fact 0.3 would be a rare achievement. So while it may be dramatizing it slightly I think the common belief is so far from the reality that calling it a myth is justified. It challenges those misconceptions strongly and generates discussion. Like this!

CSF

FHFC wrote: »

I'd be amazed if there was 0.2 or 0.3 to be made on players you don't want to keep in your team any of these early wildcard weeks.

People still widely see adding considerably more than 0.2 or 0.3 to their RV as a factor in wildcarding when in fact 0.3 would be a rare achievement. So while it may be dramatizing it slightly I think the common belief is so far from the reality that calling it a myth is justified. It challenges those misconceptions strongly and generates discussion. Like this!

Referring to your stats .2 or .3 is fairly doable at this time of year. I'm going for it on a bad week but I think depending on the week, you'll usually see 2 or 3.

FHFC

CSF wrote: »

Referring to your stats .2 or .3 is fairly doable at this time of year. I'm going for it on a bad week but I think depending on the week, you'll usually see 2 or 3.

You just wont IMO and according to the stats to date.

2 to 3 double risers would be about the norm. 4 was the max in any GW over the last 2 years. An the guys rising twice are highly likely to be the Hazards who you'll be keeping anyway.

The GWs with two Fridays give you a much better chance. And if you happened to have a low ownership cheap player or two who hit form that week you might have a chance.

CSF

FHFC wrote: »

You just wont IMO and according to the stats to date.

2 to 3 double risers would be about the norm. 4 was the max in any GW over the last 2 years. An the guys rising twice are highly likely to be the Hazards who you'll be keeping anyway.

The GWs with two Fridays give you a much better chance. And if you happened to have a low ownership cheap player or two who hit form that week you might have a chance.

Am I completely misreading the stats from your article then? Perhaps I'm missing something, cause that's what I was referring to

FHFC

CSF wrote: »

Am I completely misreading the stats from your article then? Perhaps I'm missing something, cause that's what I was referring to

I think the difference is that I'm not counting a .2 rise on, for example Hazard, who you are going to be keeping, as banking 0.1 fron price rises. The gain there is getting a 'must have' player for 0.2 less than if you waited.

The 0.2 rise bandwagoner you can sell on the same week while on WC is ao rare as to be largely a myth.

CSF

FHFC wrote: »

I think the difference is that I'm not counting a .2 rise on, for example Hazard, who you are going to be keeping, as banking 0.1 fron price rises. The gain there is getting a 'must have' player for 0.2 less than if you waited.

The 0.2 rise bandwagoner you can sell on the same week while on WC is ao rare as to be largely a myth.

That's a fair point.

Manutd_4life

Is Townsend expected to drop anytime soon? He's been dreadful. Should I get rid asap

CSF

Manutd_4life wrote: »

Is Townsend expected to drop anytime soon? He's been dreadful. Should I get rid asap

Can't see him lasting. He will drop once and probably will be about halfway to another.

shineon23

CSF wrote:

Can't see him lasting. He will drop once and probably will be about halfway to another.

Had held Townsend in the hope he'd come good with Palace's good run.

but the fplstats have edging closer to a drop all last week I've cut him loose.

Anyone see the Everton game live? I'm caught between Mirallas and Bolasie and wondering how they lined out.

F1ngers

Manutd_4life wrote: »

Is Townsend expected to drop anytime soon? He's been dreadful. Should I get rid asap

93% towards dropping according to fpl stats.
Can't see him lasting as CSF has said.

Scorpion Sting

Up: Hazard, Capoue, Jakupović, Fer

Down: Fàbregas, Mandanda, Delph, Montero, Begović, Ospina, O'Kane, Oxford, Cattermole, Chirivella

km79

4 risers for me

CSF

km79 wrote: »

4 risers for me

Me too, weird that

Shanotheslayer

Wildcarded last night and now I have 3 risers nice.

FHFC

km79 wrote: »

4 risers for me

Have 3 but not in wildcard.

Doubt Fer will make a second rise though. Maybe but I doubt it.

AdMMM

Townsend is so frustrating! Has so much FPL potential with chances created. Just needs to build some chemistry with a hopefully rejuvenated Benteke...

Shanotheslayer

Prices not changed on FF website yet?

alchemist33

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Prices not changed on FF website yet?

At a quick glance they are

wonski

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Prices not changed on FF website yet?

They definitely are, as I found last night when making transfer a minute too late.

Rikand

FHFC wrote: »

Have 3 but not in wildcard.

Doubt Fer will make a second rise though. Maybe but I doubt it.

Same

And also why I didnt bring in Fer

8-10

Rikand wrote: »

Same

And also why I didnt bring in Fer

Sterling the only player I'd bank on getting a 0.2 rise this GW. Hazard maybe but another 0.1 won't help most people who already had him

Shanotheslayer

wonski wrote: »

They definitely are, as I found last night when making transfer a minute too late.

Quick glance my Hazard is valued at 10.1 should it not be 10.2? Or is it because wildcats activated?

greedygoblin

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Quick glance my Hazard is valued at 10.1 should it not be 10.2? Or is it because wildcats activated?

It depends on when you bought him. If you had him since the start, you would only get 10.1 if you sold him now (you only get half of the price rise when you sell on a player). So in this case, though he has gained 0.2 in value, in real terms its only worth 0.1 to your bank account.

FHFC

Following on from the discussion yesterday with CSF I had a closer look at the records from the last two seasons 1st International Breaks.

Here are the profiles of rises and falls across both seasons.

Even I am surprised as how few rises toward the end of the period, no proper Friday rush at the end of the International Break either year.

Total 0.2 rises in this International Break last season was ONE and season before was TWO (I think I overstated 14/15 as having had 3 previously).

FHFC

8-10 wrote: »

Sterling the only player I'd bank on getting a 0.2 rise this GW. Hazard maybe but another 0.1 won't help most people who already had him

Yeah Sterling might do it, but pace will slacken dramatically after tonight.

I think Hazard will do it, and before Sterling's display yesterday had predicted him to be the only one.

eagle eye

It seems to be easier to go down than to go up. We are really guessing about this stuff but I'm thinking Aguero will drop tonight and if he gets a 3 match ban he will drop again tomorrow night.

I think Negredo is going to go up tonight again and maybe Costa. If they do go up tonight and Aguero gets a three match ban tomorrow they might go up again and it's possible to add a couple of points to the value of your team.

I could be totally wrong of course but I've as good a chance of being right as any of the sites predicting things.

FHFC

eagle eye wrote: »

It seems to be easier to go down than to go up. We are really guessing about this stuff but I'm thinking Aguero will drop tonight and if he gets a 3 match ban he will drop again tomorrow night.

I think Negredo is going to go up tonight again and maybe Costa. If they do go up tonight and Aguero gets a three match ban tomorrow they might go up again and it's possible to add a couple of points to the value of your team.

I could be totally wrong of course but I've as good a chance of being right as any of the sites predicting things.

There is no chance of any of those things happening. What are you basing that on?

Prediction sites are not that far off the mark. Aguero 66% to a rise. Even if he is banned will drop once this week at most and not till near the end of the GW.

Costa may just sneak another rise this week Negredo will go up but not for a few days yet. He'll get close to a second if Gray is banned but doubt he'll make it.

The will be very few rises from now onwards till the GW deadline.

F1ngers

eagle eye wrote: »

It seems to be easier to go down than to go up. We are really guessing about this stuff but I'm thinking Aguero will drop tonight and if he gets a 3 match ban he will drop again tomorrow night.

I think Negredo is going to go up tonight again and maybe Costa. If they do go up tonight and Aguero gets a three match ban tomorrow they might go up again and it's possible to add a couple of points to the value of your team.

I could be totally wrong of course but I've as good a chance of being right as any of the sites predicting things.

Aguero is closer to a rise than he is to a drop, not a chance he will drop twice in two nights.

The prediction sites are getting closer to predicting properly.

I'll take their "predictions" over yours.

km79

eagle eye wrote: »

It seems to be easier to go down than to go up. We are really guessing about this stuff but I'm thinking Aguero will drop tonight and if he gets a 3 match ban he will drop again tomorrow night.

I think Negredo is going to go up tonight again and maybe Costa. If they do go up tonight and Aguero gets a three match ban tomorrow they might go up again and it's possible to add a couple of points to the value of your team.

I could be totally wrong of course but I've as good a chance of being right as any of the sites predicting things.

There is absolutely no way aguero is dropping tonight or tomorrow night

eagle eye

Aguero has 30000 selling him and less than 25k bringing him in. How on earth has any site got him at 66% to rise? I think the tranfers in weigh a lot less than transfers out for some reason.

We'll see what happens tonight but I haven't seen any site get things right yet.

FHFC

eagle eye wrote: »

Aguero has 30000 selling him and less than 25k bringing him in. How on earth has any site got him at 66% to rise? I think the tranfers in weight a lot less than transfers out for some reason.

We'll see what happens tonight but I haven't seen any site get things right yet.

Tonight Sterling will rise. McAuley and Holgate might. Nobody else.

Aguero will not drop. I will bet you €100 on that one.

If your figures are right thats an NTO of just 5,000 in whatever period you're looking at. Before the ban scare he was transferring in heavily....never mind. Good luck with that....

stephenl15

Risers: Sterling, Holgate
Fallers: Dja Djedje, Zuniga, Rangel, S. Davis, Besic, Gibson, McCarthy, Welbeck.

km79

2 risers
May even end up keeping Sterling yet

Porthallian

stephenl15 wrote: »

Risers: Sterling, Holgate
Fallers: Dja Djedje, Zuniga, Rangel, S. Davis, Besic, Gibson, McCarthy, Welbeck.

No Aguero drop? :O

Colking

Porthallian wrote: »

No Aguero drop? :O

Nowhere near a drop yet.

Porthallian

Colking wrote: »

Porthallian wrote: »

No Aguero drop? :O

Nowhere near a drop yet.

Tongue in cheek :P

Iused2likebusts

eagle eye wrote: »

Aguero has 30000 selling him and less than 25k bringing him in. How on earth has any site got him at 66% to rise? I think the tranfers in weigh a lot less than transfers out for some reason.

We'll see what happens tonight but I haven't seen any site get things right yet.

The rises or falls don't start from 0% at the start of each gw. Aguero was already close to a rise at the start of this gw so he has to drop all the way back to 0% and then he has to make it 100% of the way to a fall. He is a long way off a fall.

CSF

How quick do we see Aguero's descent being? Of course he hasn't been banned yet but I can see alot of people getting rid or Wildcarding once they see the news tonight.

extra gravy

CSF wrote: »

How quick do we see Aguero's descent being? Of course he hasn't been banned yet but I can see alot of people getting rid or Wildcarding once they see the news tonight.

I've just got rid of him on wc. Ozil, Sanchez and Cazorla all going up this week and I haven't decided which one I want yet so just going to buy them all!

Xaniaj

extra gravy wrote: »

I've just got rid of him on wc. Ozil, Sanchez and Cazorla all going up this week and I haven't decided which one I want yet so just going to buy them all!

Lol, I wish I had the space for them all! It'll be Ozil or Caz and will have to decide this evening. I'll move Aguero out tonight but need to keep money in the bank to ensure I can get him back in for a maximum of two transfers

greedygoblin

Aguero is still at 34.4% to a rise on fplstats so I'd hope it'll be a couple of more days before he does fall. Will hold out to see if he's successful with any appeal to the charge.

CSF

greedygoblin wrote: »

Aguero is still at 34.4% to a rise on fplstats so I'd hope it'll be a couple of more days before he does fall. Will hold out to see if he's successful with any appeal to the charge.

Think he's at a rate of -12 per hour though (I'm following religiously to see if bringing in Negredo for value purposes would be a no risk move even if he avoids the ban)

Bleating Lamb

CSF wrote: »

Think he's at a rate of -12 per hour though (I'm following religiously to see if bringing in Negredo for value purposes would be a no risk move even if he avoids the ban)

As in -12%???..... Hard to know who to replace him with....like a lot of others I have Ibra and Negredo as well.

Choice of Defoe or Costa...neither has easy fixtures.