Is America in decline?

snowstorm445

Most people if they have had so much as a small glimpse at the news recently will know that all is not well in the US of A. Within its society, cracks that one would think should have been healed decades ago are widening, as racial tensions continue to simmer. The rise of BLM and violence between the black and white Americans has indicated that society has become not less, but more polarised.

This of course is just one symptom of this seismic shift in American life. The campaign for the 2016 presidential election has revealed disillusionment with politics on both ends of the spectrum. The GOP is slowly tearing itself apart between traditional Republicans and those who have rowed in behind Donald Trump, both of whom can't stand each other. Similarly the Democrats are split between those who support Hillary Clinton, the official nominee (and as modern democrats go, more right wing) and Bernie Sanders, whose agenda would have been considered heretical a generation ago but who has nonetheless appealed to a large number of disillusioned left-leaning Americans, many of them young and often from minority backgrounds.

While appealing to certain groups in America has always been an unwritten rule in elections, the division has clearly been copper fastened in recent years. Parties which used to field candidates who could appeal to a broad range of voters now usually appeal to specific groups - GOP candidates for instance included one from the traditional centre-right (Jeb Bush), evangelical Christians (Ted Cruz) and the more radical right/nationalist wing (Trump). The American political system is of course only truly capable of dealing with a two-party setup, thus the inevitable split between these groups within the parties will make politics less representative, and thus hasten the polarisation. The age of compromise seems to be coming to an end; you only have to look at how gridlocked Congress has become in recent years to see it taking shape.

Add to this the sluggish economic growth (although patently not as bad as in Europe) and the gradual isolationism of the United States with regard to the rest of the world. Whether you think that America's historical interventionist role in world politics is a good or bad thing, it is obvious that this in no longer the case, despite what was once called war on terror essentially reaching fever pitch with the rise of ISIS. America also faces increasing threats to its hegemony from Russia and China, and anti-American opinion across the world is at an all time high. Gone are the days of the post-Cold War hyperpower, Pax Americana, or whatever you choose to call it.

While it's obviously still the world's most powerful country, are these the symptoms of a superpower past its zenith? Or is the United States becoming just one of a number of world powers, and is only loosing its relative power. The internal political divisions and ongoing conflicts of the "culture wars", in my view at least, indicate that the cohesion and stability of the country itself is unravelling, and whatever about the state of its foreign policy, surely those issues alone will take their toll in the long run. What do ye think?

Ken.

Mod-Locked for move to Politics cafe. Please read the new updated charter before posting.

ancapailldorcha

Thread reopened. New posters please read our charter before posting.

wes

If the US is in decline, it is largely a self inflicted wound, caused by decades of under investment in infrastructure, and needless polarization and extreme adherence to political ideology, to the point, where the government has been brought to the brink of being shut down several times for petty political reasons.

Nody

I'm not sure it's a USA specific problem (see European elections) but more of a world wide problem per say. I was reading an article a few weeks ago about how in the UK the young generation (20s) today earned less money than their parents and were not expected to catch up with their parents. This is part of a greater shift globally where for I'd argue a century or so the children has always gone on to a better life than their parents by earning more, consume more etc. This trend was the foundation of the American dream (you can work yourself to become rich) and it's no longer holding true.

The current generation will earn less money than their parents; they will face higher taxes and worse services (because the whole system has been chronically under funded for so long and the big 40s generation is now rotating out costing a significant amount). This in turn will drive more social tearing which combined with the addition of 24/7 news services and shortened attention span news (i.e. twitter, 30s news updates rather than deep diving etc.) makes people quite frankly more stupid. Why? Because they fall into the fallacy of thinking they are making an informed decision but in reality due to the lack of knowledge and understanding they are not. Added in with failing quality in schools for decades it all adds up to a prime market for Trump style candidates who are all air and no facts. Make quick soundbites about how it's someone else fault and if they elect you things will turn out better without touching on the fundamental issues in the first place.

This is also what annoys me with politics in general today; the centrist parties are all deadly afraid of actually thinking beyond the next year or at most next election and will start the election cycle from day 1 in the office. What happened with parties actually having a proper vision for the next 30 to 50 years and addressing fundamentals beyond sweeping generalizations. Obama was a classic example of this of someone who swept in but look back at what he delivered. Someone will sure to claim oh but the republicans filibustered all his attempts but when he was elected it was all democrats in both chambers. Did he do something revolutionary to change things? No just another steady as she goes don't rock the boat politician.

So what does this all add up to? Well the sins of our fathers are finally catching up to us all (we'll be worse off due to the failings of the systems built due to lack of funding at the time) which drives people feeling more hopeless than previously (added on by a shorter attention span, worse quality news and a rise of people telling us it's not our fault we're worse off as they have a quick win painless hate solution for us all) in an economical system entering dangerous terrain (the debt economy). At the same time on the other side of the fence the despots (Putin, China, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia etc.) are getting twitchy as they can't suppress the information as easily and can't keep the masses in check by bribes (blooming Western economy to sell to for cash only works if we keep buying).

In essence it's not a USA problem; it's a connected global problem and there is no pain free easy bullet out of it. To address it requires politicians with balls like Duke Nukem who dare to take the required drastic steps to address it but they are likely to be thrown out in the next cycle for the guy promising tax cuts and spending increases instead because people don't want to do what's right long term but what's easy and feels good now.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Nody

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Sweden had it's first noted parliament gathering back in 1450 :P

But Permabear you have to also admit the flaws of the current system; there are only a handful of states at best where votes have any significance (yes every state could be in play but in reality there is a very limited number) and between the gerrymandering (both sides), the lack of transparency on donations etc. there are significant flaws in the current two party set up that neither side wants to address (why add more competition).

InTheTrees

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Well lets not forget one of the bloodiest Civil wars in western history with up to 700,000 dead.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Nody

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

The role of president is what you make of it; in some countries (Ireland, Czech Republic etc.) it's a ceremonial role in the same way the King plays said role in Sweden (no president).

Would not a more proportional system be of more use over the winner takes all approach? I.e. popular vote in a state would limit Gerrymandering possibilities for example. It would also mean a vote for a Democrat (or third party) in for example Texas would not necessary be a dead vote and make the election more fluid forcing the parties to cover more ground.

snowstorm445

snowstorm445 wrote: »

While it's obviously still the world's most powerful country, are these the symptoms of a superpower past its zenith?

While America has not successfuly won a war since WW2... neither has any other "civilised" nation. Conventional warfare is at an end unless the country is willing to perform "total war" (genocide, concentration camps, etc). The weakness is not with the US on that front, but rather western culture as a whole. Occupation is no longer feasible.

But in terms of global conflict, the US is still the best trained, experienced and equipped military in the world. Add in the largest arsenal of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons in the world, it will retain it's superpower status. Unless it has a civil war, of course.

Or is the United States becoming just one of a number of world powers, and is only loosing its relative power.

Who would you compare them to? China? A mostly third world army only recently starting to modernise, with a tiny navy, and a slighter better than average air force? And no experience in miltary campaigns at all. Russia? Possibly, but again its mostly a conscipt army, with a core of hardened professionals without an economy to support the thrust into a modern military. Europe/Nato? Hardly... America has encouraged European nations to downgrade their militaries, and European nations mostly went along with that. Europe is a shadow of itself from the 60's and Europe wasn't that impressive then militarily anyway.

In Asia, Japan could take the Naval superiority prize but with a declining and much older population, they're unlikely to be able to provide any real threat.

The internal political divisions and ongoing conflicts of the "culture wars", in my view at least, indicate that the cohesion and stability of the country itself is unravelling, and whatever about the state of its foreign policy, surely those issues alone will take their toll in the long run. What do ye think?

My problem with all of this is that we just hear all these reports from certain areas. The problems with blacks/whites/hispanics etc tend to come from the same places... and the US is a damn big country. There are many areas of the US which don't have these racial tensions or the violence common in some of the major cities. So, can we really judge the whole nation as being on the tipping point? I don't think so.

As for the political angle... It's a joke. A horrible demented joke. Choose between trump and clinton? I say mis-election and demand new candidates... Are there serious issues with their political system..? Definitely. But then I would say the same about most democracies. Political systems are breaking down. I don't know what the answer is though. IF there is even one. There might not be.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

wes

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

The US got a smack of that as well......

Fr Tod Umptious

Back when Newstalk had a show on presented by a guy called Coleman I think late at night the point about the alleged decline in the USA was discussed.

At the time there was a lot of talk about China taking over etc.

But one contributior made a good point that what differentiates the US from China, Russia etc is its constitution and its democracy.

And its a constitution that has lasted over 200 years with only a single civil war.

The example of the 2000 election was mentioned, that was dealt with in the open in accordance with the constitution.

In other less democratic states it would have been done behind closed doors and there would be blood.

And that's why America is not in the decline that some thing it is, it will always have its constitution and democracy.

God only know what would happen in China tomorrow if the Communist Party fell apart.

Inquitus

The US is in terminal decline, I spend about a week a month there, and there is almost nothing about the place that is better than what we have in Ireland. I wouldn't live there if you paid me. Half the population don't even earn a living wage, vast swathes of the cities are not safe to walk around, poverty is rife, a country that has decided to leave half the population behind is no country at all.

BoJack Horseman

Militarily, infrastructurally (sp), diplomatically, societally..... all a certain yes.

Nothing is terminal or irreversible, but the decline is there.

Fr Tod Umptious

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

God only know what would happen in China tomorrow if the Communist Party fell apart.

Not a whole lot. I've noticed this trend by westerners to suggest that the communist/maoist party is the only thing thats holding china together... but they don't understand the social makeup of China. You can't really apply western logic to China or the Chinese themselves. 57 ethnic groups but Han are the majority by far, and they do identify themselves by their ethnic group. Chinese culture and their mentality holds true to the same structures from thousands on years ago. Confucius ideology is still very much mainstream, and it remains a strong glue for them. Besides, the belief that they are superior to everyone else, and a strong "hidden" fear of foreign influence within China (China's loss of power is perceived to have happened since foreign nations appeared in China), means that they'll get past any internal divisions quickly enough. Few nations are as stupidly proud of themselves (they're true believers in the propaganda and indocrination they've been exposed to under the Maoist regime, but also every other regime that went before them).

TBH, I'd be more worried what a new government would do to their neighbours. The communist party is used to posturing.. and are aware of what they stand to lose by a war (although the C.Party is still extremely unpredictable). Any new faction wouldn't have much to lose, and the Chinese people are already convinced that they're more powerful than all their neighbors combined. Add in that their whole miltary strategy for the last 30 years was a way to counter US military advantages, and it's bound to get messy fast.

And the US is the only nation stopping China from expanding now. God help us, if the US did lose its military supremacy. The Chinese are just dying to show their "natural" superiority, and are still bitter from losing out on the spoils after WW2.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Inquitus

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Your violent crime per thousand may be getting lower but it is still many multiples of what it is in Ireland. Just because it's improving doesn't mean it's at an acceptable rate.

According to the Economic Policy Institute’s State of Working America, a stunning 35 million Americans – 26 percent of the USA workforce – earn less than $10.55 an hour. Add in the unemployed and those who don't seek work and that's up to 36%, depends on your definition of a living wage, but it's a vast swathe of the population. Not to mention those who earn $10-$15 which I would also not consider a living wage.

Inquitus

Inquitus wrote: »

Your violent crime per thousand may be getting lower but it is still many multiples of what it is in Ireland. Just because it's improving doesn't mean it's at an acceptable rate.

How can you seriously compare Ireland with America?

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Permabear

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Seriously? I've lived decently on less. Won't get you the house and the car... but living? Definitely.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

AbusesToilets

Deleted User wrote: »

Not a whole lot. I've noticed this trend by westerners to suggest that the communist/maoist party is the only thing thats holding china together... but they don't understand the social makeup of China. You can't really apply western logic to China or the Chinese themselves. 57 ethnic groups but Han are the majority by far, and they do identify themselves by their ethnic group. Chinese culture and their mentality holds true to the same structures from thousands on years ago. Confucius ideology is still very much mainstream, and it remains a strong glue for them. Besides, the belief that they are superior to everyone else, and a strong "hidden" fear of foreign influence within China (China's loss of power is perceived to have happened since foreign nations appeared in China), means that they'll get past any internal divisions quickly enough. Few nations are as stupidly proud of themselves (they're true believers in the propaganda and indocrination they've been exposed to under the Maoist regime, but also every other regime that went before them).

TBH, I'd be more worried what a new government would do to their neighbours. The communist party is used to posturing.. and are aware of what they stand to lose by a war (although the C.Party is still extremely unpredictable). Any new faction wouldn't have much to lose, and the Chinese people are already convinced that they're more powerful than all their neighbors combined. Add in that their whole miltary strategy for the last 30 years was a way to counter US military advantages, and it's bound to get messy fast.

And the US is the only nation stopping China from expanding now. God help us, if the US did lose its military supremacy. The Chinese are just dying to show their "natural" superiority, and are still bitter from losing out on the spoils after WW2.

Japan could be one to watch, in terms of military growth. They have amended there laws surrounding use of military forces of late. They would take the threat of an expansionist China very seriously.

AbusesToilets

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Japan could be one to watch, in terms of military growth. They have amended there laws surrounding use of military forces of late. They would take the threat of an expansionist China very seriously.

True enough but they're limited beyond their navy. Their navy is probably the best in Asia. But with falling birth rates, and a general distrust of land based military, I doubt they could persecute an extensive war. Besides, these artificial islands that China has created (along with their largest military base, which says a lot) covers a huge area of where Japan imports food and other resources. So China could starve Japan if war happened.

Japan needs American Air power/Naval power. Or possibly South Korean Air power. South korea still has the largest air force in the region, but they have their own problems with anti-western feeling amongst their male youth. It really depends on China. There's little point looking to statistics about Chinese military power because they regularly release false information about the size of their military. It is possible that they might have enough to deal with a combined coalition force in the region.... They've had enough time to prepare... and have the resources available (they've been importing everything except coal for decades while retaining some of the largest deposits of resources outside of Russia)

Still... Japan has a new defense minister who is reportedly far more hardline and aggressive than previous ministers. A reflection of the times I guess. Feminists should take a look at her and wonder..

Chromosphere

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

That would still rank Limerick as upper middle of the list of US Cities by safety (over 250,000).
Roughly 38th. It's also a hell of a lot smaller than 250k, so could rank better as it's size actually distorts the rate which was high due to a small number of gang on gang crimes.

Murder rate in Europe generally is very low compared to the USA.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Chromosphere

Well, only if you're trying to imply that the US is some kind of apartheid society. You can't just hive off crime into ethnicity to make a country seem less violent than it actually is.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

LorMal

I have enjoyed reading your excellent posts Permabear. It is a pleasure to read a measured and convincing argument which goes against the trend on Boards which is to deride the US.
I have witnessed commentators declaring the decline of the USA in every decade since the 1970s (Watergate, Vietnam, Iran Hostages, OPEC), 1980s (Iran Contras / Cold War), 1990's (Recession - the Economy, Stupid), 2000's (911/ Afghanistan / Iraq, Economic Crash), 2010's (ISIS, Syria the Rise of the Trump)....
It's still the country I prefer to be the global superpower. Imagine the world dominated by Russia or China...

BoJack Horseman

LorMal wrote: »

It's still the country I prefer to be the global superpower. Imagine the world dominated by Russia or China...

True dat.

The concept of hegemony is interesting.
The world is so small now it will always be divided among competing hegemonys.

If people want the US one to fall, what of the alternatives would they prefer to take its place?

However it can still decline (if even slightly) while still remaining a powerful hegemony.

Billy86

I think we've seen increasingly over the last three elections, this one especially, that the Cold War 'victory' was at the very least somewhat Pyrrhic.

Chromosphere

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Nor will you be able to convince someone who doesn't live in Dublin or Limerick that the murder rate is high as in most parts of Ireland. The same applies anywhere in Western Europe. For most of us the homicide rate is hovering around 0. You've the odd few hotspots (still many, many multiples lower than equivalent US hotspots) of inter-gang crime, typically driven by drug trade, and that's pretty much it.

So, again, same argument applies anywhere but the US has areas that are *FAR* more violent than anywhere in Europe and there's a perception in the media that this is widespread which impacts politics.

Billy86

Quick-and-lazy murder rate link dump for the lazy among us.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

KingBrian2

I don't like getting into these America in decline debates as it is almost always kneejerk reactions to major crisis. America has been having an easy time for decades. Nations in other parts of the world have experienced greater hardships in the last 30 years than the good old US has.

Permabear

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Not that far removed I'm afraid. While they may not see violence, they continue to live under the threat of violence.

Mass shootings could pop-up anywhere, schools, middle-class workplaces, churches.

There is often violence in relationships and marriages as well, up to murder (often with the aim of cashing in on Life Assurance of the spouse)

This level of violence, or the threat of it at least, is not comparable to Ireland.


Then, there is the road fatality death rate - 2.5x greater than Ireland's.

You paint the picture of America being perfectly safe for those living away from gangs and hoods.

But it is not, compared to Ireland.

karma_

LorMal wrote: »

I have enjoyed reading your excellent posts Permabear. It is a pleasure to read a measured and convincing argument which goes against the trend on Boards which is to deride the US.
I have witnessed commentators declaring the decline of the USA in every decade since the 1970s (Watergate, Vietnam, Iran Hostages, OPEC), 1980s (Iran Contras / Cold War), 1990's (Recession - the Economy, Stupid), 2000's (911/ Afghanistan / Iraq, Economic Crash), 2010's (ISIS, Syria the Rise of the Trump)....
It's still the country I prefer to be the global superpower. Imagine the world dominated by Russia or China...

Yet here we are. The entire west is stagnant and the looming threat of automation and the flow of wealth eastward all but seals the fate of western civilisation as we know it. And if you think this is a load of cobblers, ask yourself, just how did Trump come this close to being the President of the 'greatest nation on earth'?

Silentcorner

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Bear in mind the Media who branded Limerick The Murder Capital of Europe are also the same media who branded it "S**b City"...it is farcical to believe that a city which is smaller than approx 600 other european cities, including cities like London/Madrid/Berlin, in Europe could possibly become the murder capital of an entire continent, largely because of the actions of one particularly dangerous family...

I agree with you in every other point you have made about the USA...it somehow has a system of extracting as much talent from its people/population like no other country on the planet....

Dohnjoe

karma_ wrote: »

Yet here we are. The entire west is stagnant and the looming threat of automation and the flow of wealth eastward all but seals the fate of western civilisation as we know it.

The doomsday narratives always promise but never deliver. They keep getting contradicted by reality.

Earthhorse

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

How does it distort the statistics? We're comparing Europe and America; there is no distortion unless you somehow consider Finns non European or blacks non Americans.

As for American being in decline well, I think it is right now but that doesn't mean it's in perpetual decline or on the brink of collapse. It's political stability is also hugely helped by it's geographical position; oceans away from its enemies and only two land borders to protect and one of them shared with a country that speaks the same language and a lot of cultural similarities.

The United States occupies a unique position in the world and I think people can bemoan the crises it faces and worry about how it will weather them without wanting it to fail.

KingBrian2

Earthhorse wrote: »

How does it distort the statistics? We're comparing Europe and America; there is no distortion unless you somehow consider Finns non European or blacks non Americans.

As for American being in decline well, I think it is right now but that doesn't mean it's in perpetual decline or on the brink of collapse. It's political stability is also hugely helped by it's geographical position; oceans away from its enemies and only two land borders to protect and one of them shared with a country that speaks the same language and a lot of cultural similarities.

The United States occupies a unique position in the world and I think people can bemoan the crises it faces and worry about how it will weather them without wanting it to fail.

Their is a lot of goodwill towards America. Not a lot of countries actually dislike America as such it is their policies and actions that come in particular under heavy criticism. You want genuine hate look at North and South Korea or Pakistan & India. Don't even see Iran truly hating America other than it being the wrong religion. So I don't buy this we all want America to fail nonsense.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Tony EH

While the topic title can be open to hyperbole, it's most certainly not without reason that people, both inside and outside America would be of the opinion that the country, as a whole, is in a decline. Certainly as an empire, it's influence is contracting. But, as a nation internally there's more to look back at than there is to look forward to for far, far too many of its people.

Take a walk around Detroit and you'll witness the slow death of an entire city. Go to a "successful" city like San Francisco and see the most depraved poverty on every single street corner. People in $10,000 suits waltz by old women reaching into bins for last nights pizza and care nothing for them. My cousin in New York sent me a photo recently of a Brooklyn apartment going for rent at a paltry $3000 a month! The shape of things to come in a city that already sees the children of families who have been New Yorkers all of their lives having to move ridiculous distances away from their family, just so they can afford a house. That kind of trend is unsustainable.

America has definitely been on a decline since the 70's, there's no doubt and a lot of people from there will tell you so. Where once it was, for example, a manufacturing giant, providing good jobs for people so that they could raise a family and put a roof over their heads, it now boasts a depressingly large number of working poor, whose miserable existences are characterised by having to work multiple jobs, just to pay a rent. Income inequality is one of the worst in the world.

If one is to look at America's "golden age" during the 50's and compare it to today, it really does paint a very sorry picture in a lot of people's eyes.

Permabear

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

There is a mass shooting every other month. You think that has no impact to other Americans, asking themselves will their school, nightclub or workplace be next? You don't think schoolkids are secretly asking themselves 'What about the creepy loner guy in my class, would he be capable of going on a shooting spree?' Of course they are, it's human nature. Even if somewhat baseless going by statistics alone.

What you are saying the 6,000 year statistic is comfort plenty to middle America and gives them peace of mind? I don't believe this is the case

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

I don't need a source to tell me that there are many violent murders of spouses with the aim of cashing in on Life Assurance. I know this is the case. I see it on TV crime documentaries.

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Exactly, because of the car dependency there, Americans are forced to drive much more. This is negatively impacting their quality of life (time away from family, increased stress, etc)

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

I am not saying it is a lawless Wild West. I am saying, in general terms, it does not offer the same quality of life and piece of mind (I did not even get into the Heath Insurance debacle) as living in Ireland.

I know you will always favor the U.S because of the ease of making money there compared to the Irish economic culture. I know the U.S. has more favorable business taxes and regulations and a much healthier entrepreneurial spirit.

I am countering that there is a trade-off with certain aspects of the quality of life there.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Tony EH

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

I'd put it another way. Millions more people are supporting America with low wage work in multiple jobs and not very bright futures. Plus, it's pretty meaningless to cite an increase in population as a "metric" for general living standards, which is what people would judge a decline by.

Also, you seem to be labouring under the false impression that outsourcing jobs to other countries is somehow good for Americans. I would find it difficult to believe that the majority of Americans are happy to see their jobs sailing off to cheaper labour climes.

Permabear wrote: »

Incomes have increased significantly when one looks at total compensation packages

Incomes have dropped to a 20 year low recently. Plus, the cost of living has gone through the roof for far too many. A lot of America isn't happy.

Put simply, the road America is on is unsustainable.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

johnnyskeleton

salonfire wrote: »

I don't need a source to tell me that there are many violent murders of spouses with the aim of cashing in on Life Assurance. I know this is the case. I see it on TV crime documentaries.

Mod note:

I'm afraid that in this forum you do need to provide a source. It doesnt have to be an unimpeachable analysis or a peer reviewed journal, but if the claim is that US citizens have a greater propensity to kill their spouses than the rest of the world, then this needs be be backed up.

As regards whether such a fact, if it is a fact, is evidence tending to show that the USA is indecline, a fairly compelling argument would need to be put up.

johnnyskeleton

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Mod note:

Please use the report post function rather than being derisive of other posters.