Turkish tanks and special forces flooding into northern Syria as we speak!

Musketeer4

Within the last hour or so, another country has just gone full retard and committed ground forces and heavy armour into the fray in Syria. As if things were not messed up enough there already with all the different groups and factions fighting eachother already.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37171995

Musketeer4

More. Operation Euphrates Shield.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/live-turkish-military-coalition-forces-launch-euphrates-shield-operation-in-jarablus.aspx?pageID=238&nID=103175&NewsCatID=352

BoJack Horseman

The build up for this has been going on for about a week.
Invasion commenced yesterday.

Some of the outlying villages of Jarabulus have already been captured.

I am extremely skeptical about this though.
- ISIS have held a long border with Turkey for well over a year now.
- In that time, Turkey has hardly laid a finger or impeded men & materiel going across to ISIS.
- The Turkish government ordered the Kurdish forces not to cross the Euphrates river or "they will face our hammer" as a Turkish minister put it
- Turkish forces were shelling YPG positions today and yesterday.
- They are invading now because the Kurds after liberating Manbij last week, ISIS risked being caught in a pocket to its north & the YPG are closing in as ISIS pull out men.

Its my opinion that with the Kurds conquering the eastern regime held city of Al-Hasakah yesterday (something that really should have gotten more media attention) and being close to linking up with the Kurdish forces in the western pocket that they would hold enough contiguous land to be ready to declare a free state.

(again, IMO) the Turks are invading to try to prevent that happening.

Musketeer4

So what will happen? Will Turkey hold this territory indefinitely or will they hand it over to Syrians? Government or FSA?

BoJack Horseman

Musketeer4 wrote: »

So what will happen? Will Turkey hold this territory indefinitely or will they hand it over to Syrians? Government or FSA?

There are FSA elements (and others) on the move with Turkish forces so, my guess would be the latter.

Whatever it takes to impede the Kurds from linking up with their lands to the west.

Liveuamap is a great resource, (though its a bit finniky)
Info is croud sourced, but use your own judgement

http://syria.liveuamap.com/

Larbre34

Superb. Blurred lines of allegiance among nations and factions, cross border actions beginning with NATO lurking on one side and Russia on the other, involving pretty much everybody in the the Near East.

What could possibly go wrong?

Musketeer4

War crimes and massacres on both sides. Lots of northern Syria is Shia and Turkey is Sunni.

Tabnabs

Follow the invasion here https://twitter.com/AhmadAlkhtiib

BoJack Horseman

Are they militia or professional troops? (I say that knowing that a lot of the Turkish army is barely above militia)

And in a determined fight, that M60/M48 isn't going to last long..... not much armour there

BoJack Horseman

Here is the end game according to CNN Turkey.

The fighting today is in Jarabulus to the top-right



That this has absolutely nothing to do with ISIS is rather stark.

riffmongous

So are the americans going to stop all support of the YPG now? What about on other fronts against ISIS? What a cluster****

Musketeer4

So the Americans are supporting YPG, Turkey are fighting YPG and yet both Turkey and 'Murica are in NATO.

WT actual F is happening?

Gatling

Musketeer4 wrote: »

WT actual F is happening?

It's the biggest cluster **** we've seen in a long time .
Turkey fighting kurds and isis but mostly kurds ,
When isis were about to take kobani they sat back and did nothing,
Now they have gone in to finish this in Erdogan own words ,
Could be planning to roll to Damascus but Putin will get pissed very quickly at that idea ,
Can't see America sitting back and leaving the kurds to the Turkish to wipe out ,
We could also see a combination of groups taking on Turkey to try stop them taken and holding territory.

riffmongous

I wonder have the Americans provided the YPG with any heavy anti-tank weapons? Anyone know exactly how much material support was supplied?

Gatling

riffmongous wrote: »

I wonder have the Americans provided the YPG with any heavy anti-tank weapons? Anyone know exactly how much material support was supplied?

A few groups apparently have TOWs on the ground ,
Seen lots of vidoes of Kurds taking out isis improvised armored vehicles with missles but don't know if they were operated by SF units embedded with locals or issued to the kurds

BoJack Horseman

Gatling wrote: »

A few groups apparently have TOWs on the ground ,
Seen lots of vidoes of Kurds taking out isis improvised armored vehicles with missles but don't know if they were operated by SF units embedded with locals or issued to the kurds

There are some TOWs in the peshmerga alright.
In the Kurdish videos I've seen though they are mostly using MILAN missiles.
Their launchers look quite similar to TOW launchers though, so there might be confusion.

You can see what they have used here.
Quite a wide variety, and a helluva lot supplied by Germany & France.

The USA didn't supply a lot of ATGMs directly cos they use a lot of Javelins.... which are way too pricey to hand out.
The vast bulk of TOWs used in the rebel areas were supplied from Saudi Arabia, who have far more than they could ever use.

rosser44

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Are they militia or professional troops? (I say that knowing that a lot of the Turkish army is barely above militia)

And in a determined fight, that M60/M48 isn't going to last long..... not much armour there

The Turks have no interest in a determined fight, or in combatting Daesh. All they want to do is to ensure that the Kurdish controlled areas to the NW and NE of Syria can't link up.

As far as the Turks are concerned, the Kurds are the real enemy. M60 tanks will do fine against the Kurds, who despite being the only real ground force making any progress against the disease that is Daesh have been continually denied the military resources they need by the west.

Musketeer4

So Turkey v YPG and by proxy the USA who is also Turkey's NATO ally. And all three against Daesh and Assad, who are also against ISIS whom Turkey can't decide whether they are for or against.

Where to the FSA fit into all this?

BoJack Horseman

Musketeer4 wrote: »

Where to the FSA fit into all this?

Currently working with Turkey in this mission.... at least for now.

BoJack Horseman

Some images apparently showing turkish armour reinforcements.

light armour

Leopard Tanks!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqoHwGdWYAAhoiR.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqoHw-nWIAAWFij.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqoHwYbXYAASZIK.jpg

rosser44

The FSA is a bit of a misnomer, its more just a grouping of different militas. If Assad does fall I can see Syria go the way of Libya with the FSA fracturing and infighting for control of land and oil resources, funded by other regional powers with their own interests.

Its a ****ty thing to say but Syria is probably better off with Assad in charge for the moment, as the power vacuum that would ensue would be destabilising for the region on a scale way worse than we see at the moment.

The Russians are heavily invested in Syria, with several military bases and they will fight tooth and nail to preserve these. Also the proxy war between Saudi and Iran which is already playing out in Yemen would almost certainly escalate in a lawless Syria too.

BoJack Horseman

Turkish army & associated militias have confirmed they have taken Jarabulus.

FSA leadership say that there were meetings between Turkey, Iranian & Syrian officials.

That this is so obviously aimed at the Kurds is as plain as day.

Musketeer4

Just like Iraq under Saddam, Syria was and would be dramatically better of with the Ba'athist regime of Assad in power. While very far from perfect, if one kept their head down and bought into the system they could live a reasonably comfortable life.
Futhermore the secular and arab-socialist nature of the regimes, despite being undemocratic, brought equality for women, education and some of the best healthcare systems in the middle east.

Reminds me of socialist Afghanistan in the 70s and 80s which was a very progressive nation for its time and location in the world. Once islamists got hold of it, it was a downward spiral. Iraq and syria are heading the same way.

Musketeer4

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Turkish army & associated militias have confirmed they have taken Jarabulus.

FSA leadership say that there were meetings between Turkey, Iranian & Syrian officials.

That this is so obviously aimed at the Kurds is as plain as day.

So there is an alliance of sorts now between Turkey and the Iran-Syrian Government coalition?

Turkey are pure shnakes, playing both sides depending on what suits them.

BoJack Horseman

And to add insult to injury, the US have pretty much knifed the Kurds in the back.


Remember a week or so ago we saw images in the media of elated citizenry in the freed city of Manbij burning burkas and shaving beards.

The USAF assisted in this effort by providing air support and bombing of ISIS positions as the YPG took this city..... the USAF continued to bomb ISIS positions around here right up to today.

But lo & behold,
After the Turkish government ordered the Kurds back across the Euphrates, VP Joe Biden has today reiterated this by ordering Kurdish forces back across the Euphrates and telling them they will not receive any more air support unless they do so. (link)

So, remembering that the Kurds are hard pressed against ISIS across 200+kms all the way into Iraqi territory they now have this gun placed to their heads..... if they refused this betrayal their lack of air support would inevitably lead to loss and death elsewhere.

I find this quite a betrayal.
IMHO, this is down to the US desperately trying to keep Turkey on board & in NATO.
Ankara has been signaling its desire to leave NATO & kneel before the Kremlin throne for a while now.
I assume because the US was desperate to head this off have abandoned & f*cked the Kurds.
Some allies.

It should also be noted that all this does is hand back the city of Manbij to ISIS!

BoJack Horseman

Musketeer4 wrote: »

So there is an alliance of sorts now between Turkey and the Iran-Syrian Government coalition?

They can all get along when it comes to keeping the Kurds down!

Musketeer4

Exactly what is it about the kurds that makes everybody else in the region want to kill them? They're all muslims, no?

Terrible triplets. No-one seems to want the killing to stop.

riffmongous

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

And to add insult to injury, the US have pretty much knifed the Kurds in the back.


Remember a week or so ago we saw images in the media of elated citizenry in the freed city of Manbij burning burkas and shaving beards.

The USAF assisted in this effort by providing air support and bombing of ISIS positions as the YPG took this city..... the USAF continued to bomb ISIS positions around here right up to today.

But lo & behold,
After the Turkish government ordered the Kurds back across the Euphrates, VP Joe Biden has today reiterated this by ordering Kurdish forces back across the Euphrates and telling them they will not receive any more air support unless they do so. (link)

So, remembering that the Kurds are hard pressed against ISIS across 200+kms all the way into Iraqi territory they now have this gun placed to their heads..... if they refused this betrayal their lack of air support would inevitably lead to loss and death elsewhere.

I find this quite a betrayal.
IMHO, this is down to the US desperately trying to keep Turkey on board & in NATO.
Ankara has been signaling its desire to leave NATO & kneel before the Kremlin throne for a while now.
I assume because the US was desperate to head this off have abandoned & f*cked the Kurds.
Some allies.

It should also be noted that all this does is hand back the city of Manbij to ISIS!

I was just reading about this on the BBC, pretty surprising and the first thing I also thought was that it was a serious betrayal..

I hate the guy but you have to acknowledge Erdogan has played a blinder the last weeks, he has solidified himself as undisputed dictator, patched things up with both Israel and Russia and he's got the Europeans and Americans desperate to keep him sweet..

I'm also now getting even more suspicious about the 'ISIS' bomb that targeted the Kurdish wedding at the weekend

BoJack Horseman

riffmongous wrote: »

I'm also now getting even more suspicious about the 'ISIS' bomb that targeted the Kurdish wedding at the weekend

Sadly I wouldn't trust it either.
Kinda like I don't believe that Erdogan 'coup' last month.

It's all part of the great game.

BoJack Horseman

ISIS completely vacated the border area today.... it seems most of the area was taken almost unopposed.
The USAF declared 8 weapons drops.

Kurds pushed north & Turks/FSA/Militias pushed south.



Kurdish & Turks/Militias are now in full scale combat with each other.

KingBrian2

Syrian armed forces have been doing a lot to keep ISIS at bay, they have lacked reinforcements because the UN has been calling on them to go easy on the population instead of forcing the Turkish and Saudi backed forces to surrender. Unlikely I know but America has a lot to answer for allowing Turkey to support Jihad in the east of Syria and with the recent terror atrocities in Turkey & France. The Russians are already putting a deal to the Syrian army to allow the rebels safe passage out of Aleppo. Lets hope those rebels can turn their arms against the Jihadists instead of against government forces.

Gatling

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Syrian armed forces have been doing a lot to keep ISIS at bay,

They have done feck all till russia started its heavy bombardments from the air the Assad regime only controlled 12% of the whole country,
Remember only 2 weeks ago russia and Assad had declared they has surrounded allepo completely and called for a surrender less than 4 days later then Siege of Aleppo was broken ,
Funny that ,

The Assad regime has been near bled dry they are now relying on Iran and Hezbollah to fight and guess what there getting a kicking and taking heavy losses despite heavy air attacks from Russia ,

Till someone is willing to put 200,000+ troops on the ground nighter Assad or russia is willing or able to

shane9689

Turkey pulled their diplomat out of austria after austria allowes local kurd to protest turkeys actions

Patser

Musketeer4 wrote: »

So there is an alliance of sorts now between Turkey and the Iran-Syrian Government coalition?

Turkey are pure shnakes, playing both sides depending on what suits them.

Didn't Erdogen have a big meeting with Putin only 2 weeks ago, pretty much begging for friendship again with Russia after the whole Mig incident last year - which has fairly much destroyed Turkey's Russian tourist trade.

Now suddenly their tacitly on Russia's pro Syrian side.

Gatling

Patser wrote: »

Didn't Erdogen have a big meeting with Putin only 2 weeks ago, pretty much begging for friendship again with Russia after the whole Mig incident last year - which has fairly much destroyed Turkey's Russian tourist trade.

Now suddenly their tacitly on Russia's pro Syrian side.

There even suggesting that russia can use Incirlik Air Base which is home to NATO forces to bomb rebels and isis ,
Turkey just wants Assad gone and Putin won't allow that to happen

Musketeer4

Turks demand kurds to widthraw east of euphrates and threaten annihilation of kurds if demand not heeded.

Already its being reported that Turkish ground forces have slaughtered at least 46 in several captured villages.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-25/turkey-says-has-27every-right-to-intervene27-if-no-syrian-kur/7786620

Turkey seems to be lining itself up for another shot at a genocide of the Kurds.
Erdogan has lost the fúcking run of himself altogether!

riffmongous

shane9689 wrote: »

Turkey pulled their diplomat out of austria after austria allowes local kurd to protest turkeys actions

It goes a bit deeper than that, there's been a war of words between ministers from both countries the last weeks over Turkey joining the EU

Gatling

Musketeer4 wrote: »

Turks demand kurds to widthraw east of euphrates and threaten annihilation of kurds if demand not heeded.

Also, Turkish ground forces slaughter 46 in various villages.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-25/turkey-says-has-27every-right-to-intervene27-if-no-syrian-kur/7786620

Turkey seems to be lining itself up for another shot at a genocide of the Kurds.
Erdogan has lost the fúcking run of himself altogether!

Wonder what Iran and Hezbollah think of all of this Been if Erdoğan decides he's going to take Damascus there the ones who have to try stop him ,

Musketeer4

I can't see that happening. While hezbollah wouldn't stand much chance against a full Turkinsh blitz towards towards Damascus the Russians will not accept Turkey threatening Assad. Russia will launch missiles at Istanbul and Ankara if the Turks launch a drive on Damascus.

Gatling

Musketeer4 wrote: »

I can't see that happening. While hezbollah wouldn't stand much chance against a full launch a full blow assault towards damascus the Russians will not accept Turkey threatening Assad. Russia will launch missiles at Istanbul and Ankara if the Turks launch a drive on Damascus.

And that will result in the first Nato Article 5 essentially all out war ,
As it stands Turkish forces would easily take Damascus in the current climate,
Unless 200,000 troops backed up with armour and airpower ,appear to stop them
Add the fact Turkey can mobilise more forces than any other country in the region

Musketeer4

I don't think Erdogan would risk trying to take Damascus. As said, the Russians would not allow it.
Erdogan won't attack Damascus because Russian missiles would hit Turkish cities. If missiles hit Turkey there would be a dramatic escalation which Turkey wouldn't risk drawing on themselves. It doesn't matter how many troops Turkey can muster at present because any remaining troops will be committed to domestic humanitarian relief if missiles burst over Ankara. Hence Turkey won't go after the lair of Assad.

Gatling

Musketeer4 wrote: »

Russian missiles would hit Turkish cities. If missiles hit Turkey there would be a dramatic escalation which Turkey wouldn't risk drawing on themselves. Hence Turkey won't go after the lair of Assad.

Russia will not attack Turkish cities ,

If that happened Nato Article 5 would be invoked and we go to war that means every NATO country comes to the defend it's member under attack ,

Musketeer4

NATO would not come to Turkey's aid, they'd more than likely hang them out to dry rather than go to war. If they did China would back up Putin.

riffmongous

Gatling wrote: »

Russia will not attack Turkish cities ,

If that happened Nato Article 5 would be invoked and we go to war that means every NATO country comes to the defend it's member under attack ,

Article 5
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Is there some wiggle room there I wonder?

edit: Although, there is no need even for wiggle room, either they back them up or they kick them out

Musketeer4

There is a lot of wiggle room through out that Article, its very wishy washy.

"as is deemed necessary" - they might deem it unnecessary due to the risk of further escalation if all the Russians did was launch a punitive attack of limited scope.

Gatling

Musketeer4 wrote: »

NATO would not come to Turkey's aid,.

I don't think your understanding the situation at all ,
Nato forces are already in Turkey along with Nuclear weapons,
Turkey can even shut the Bosporus straight to Russian ships coming from the blacksea ,no access to the agean and the med unless Turkey says so

Gatling

riffmongous wrote: »

edit: Although, there is no need even for wiggle room, either they back them up or they kick them out

That leaves you the option of saying sorry to the Baltics and Nordic members saying we now only selective defend our members ,
Which would split the alliance

Musketeer4

I do. Anyway, I cannot see any of this happening.

I doubt Turkey would be able to close the straits in any practical sense.
This is a major strategic corridor for the Russians and I'm quite sure that they have plans in place, thought out over many decades, to deal with any Turkish tantrums with the Bosphorous strait.

Widdershins

Turkey's intervention is about preventing the Kurds from uniting their cantons and building Rojava. Erdogan has always been more afraid of a Kurdish State than Islamic State

Gatling

Musketeer4 wrote: »

I do. Anyway, I cannot see any of this happening.

I doubt Turkey would be able to close the straits in any practical sense.
This is a major strategic corridor for the Russians and I'm quite sure that they have plans in place, thought out over many decades, to deal with any Turkish tantrums with the Bosphorous strait.

Like attacking them

Musketeer4

Or hitting whatever measures it is they would impose to close the straight. You can be sure that this whole corridor and the dealings surrounding it is closely monitored at all times.