NFL/NCAA Betting Thread 2016/2017

Guffy

Betway are still doing the double odds on a second td at decent odds too.

Only playing tonight out of interest and going for two that i feel are most likely to score twice.

Johnson @11/2
Fitz @8/1

Very small stakes. No real thoughts on the game itself tbh.

Guffy

gufc21 wrote: »

Betway are still doing the double odds on a second td at decent odds too.

Only playing tonight out of interest and going for two that i feel are most likely to score twice.

Johnson @11/2
Fitz @8/1

Very small stakes. No real thoughts on the game itself tbh.

Happy days... ends up being 11/1. Fitzy could of had a couple himself at this early stage too.

L.S.F

Trying to get 10 over/under predictions in a row. Backed Blake Bortles last night under 271.5, woke up about 3.30 and checked the latest score/yardages. Bortles 130 odd with a few mins to play in the 3rd quarter and Titans cruising. DeMarco Murray 100+ yards and a TD for fantasy to boot. Wake up to 337 total yards for Bortles and Murray with an injury scare and about 15 extra yards.
Backed Bortles overs while in London on bet 7 for €190 and he couldn't throw against the Colts missing out by 60 yards! Oh well...

Starting again on Sunday


Also anyone know the odds for L. Murray & James White for first touchdown last week? Hit a double on them but didn't have the odds and haven't collected yet

Irish94

L.S.F wrote: »

Trying to get 10 over/under predictions in a row. Backed Blake Bortles last night under 271.5, woke up about 3.30 and checked the latest score/yardages. Bortles 130 odd with a few mins to play in the 3rd quarter and Titans cruising. DeMarco Murray 100+ yards and a TD for fantasy to boot. Wake up to 337 total yards for Bortles and Murray with an injury scare and about 15 extra yards.
Backed Bortles overs while in London on bet 7 for €190 and he couldn't throw against the Colts missing out by 60 yards! Oh well...

Starting again on Sunday


Also anyone know the odds for L. Murray & James White for first touchdown last week? Hit a double on them but didn't have the odds and haven't collected yet

Not sure about Murray, but I backed White as an anytime TD scorer at 12/5 and also to score 2+ TD's at 17/1. Dunno if that gives you any indication or help of what the odds were for first touchdown though?

L.S.F

Irish94 wrote: »

Not sure about Murray, but I backed White as an anytime TD scorer at 12/5 and also to score 2+ TD's at 17/1. Dunno if that gives you any indication or help of what the odds were for first touchdown though?

It does cheers, checked it against similar odds and it was 14/1, Murray at 10s so got a nice return of 50c doubles of €82.50

Have gone with Cam, Blount, Freeman & Elliott this week

Paully D

There's loads of lines I like this week, which usually ends up in disaster :pac:

Bengals -2.5
Jets -2.5
Patriots -6
Seahawks -2.5
Cardinals +3
Packers +3
Chiefs -2.5

Guffy

Think I'm gona go heavy on the chargers again this week. In my eyes it really will depend in how booker does with his first start. He has looked decent in spells but now the opposition will be gameplanning for him and bosa has looked scary good.

Just delighted all games start an hour early this week

Edit 1:
Also looking at the saints this week too. Hawks d has got to be shattered after last week and wilson is crocked. Pec muscle in your throwing arm is going to make things difficult and his running will be limited with the knee/ankle. Brees being brees at home to add to that

Edit 2:
Obviously the muscle is not in his arm... but ya know what i mean.

Edit...
Line moved again on these. I locked in at +4.5 and +2.5 respectively as well as ml singles and a double.

L.S.F

Have a €1.50 acca on for €44 returns, waiting on Cowboys -5 for it to land. Had the Chiefs in it too but wouldn't let me place as multiples before k/o??

I've done decent on the small stakes bets over the last while.

Started my over/under yardage again. DeSean Jackson under 68.5 came in then lost it on Freeman next bet. Went with over 17.5 Rush attempts thinking he would have a heavier workload without coleman there but only had 11 goes.

Might back the rush again this game, Elliott 102.5, Prescott 15.5 but don't want to go chasing losses

L.S.F

Powers is messing around with the Steelers match, won't let me place anything. Were +1.5, tried to back then it says event suspended. No options when you click in and now Steeler -3 but still won't let me place?

Nothing jumping out at me this week on handicaps, Jets +4 & Titans +3.5 otherwise they're mostly ~7.5 spread

Irish94

Eagles at New York Giants: Over 42.5 Points - 1.90.

Kyle Rudolph Over 48.5 Receiving Yards - 1.83.

Dez Bryant Over 71.5 Receiving Yards - 1.83.

Dez Bryant Anytime TD Scorer - 2.10.

Guffy

Anyone know the reason for the swing in the line tonight?

I saw fri/sat that colts were -1.5 and was hoping the line hadn't mobed further only to find they are now +1. Fair movement tbh, what i miss? (Just fin work so haven't looked, i can only guess luck is out ) i should stop typing and just go check, shouldn't i?

Bateman

I think the pros just fancied the Jets as being a better team by most metrics, and there was a lot of money for them…goes to show they’re not always right…

Can see the Chiefs going off fairly hot favs this week, looks like a decent chance to oppose the Raiders

Guffy

Ya saw there was no new injury news and was "sharp" money. Happy days.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

gufc21 wrote: »

Ya saw there was no new injury news and was "sharp" money. Happy days.

Surprised by how poor the jets were really but definitely a gimme from the bookmakers.

Guffy

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Surprised by how poor the jets were really but definitely a gimme from the bookmakers.

I wasn't they've been terrible. I say this having a tenner on them to make the AFC game pre season. Fitzpatrick just doesn't give a toss. Its actually admirable how little he has cared this season. Couple that with a huge loss last week v pats and they're done

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

gufc21 wrote: »

I wasn't they've been terrible. I say this having a tenner on them to make the AFC game pre season. Fitzpatrick just doesn't give a toss. Its actually admirable how little he has cared this season. Couple that with a huge loss last week v pats and they're done

They've been done for a long time. To be fair to Fitz he hasn't much to work with there, he's been hammered all season. The OLine is shocking.

But even at that they played really well against the Pats so I couldn't see the Colts beating them 41-10 in New York. The Colts are also **** so was really surprising to see that happening.

Bateman

The Colts haven’t really gotten any better in the trenches in the last 2 or 3 years, but with everyone in the passing game healthy and Gore making some contributions, they could go on a run to the playoffs. It’s them or Osweiler…

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Bateman wrote: »

The Colts haven’t really gotten any better in the trenches in the last 2 or 3 years, but with everyone in the passing game healthy and Gore making some contributions, they could go on a run to the playoffs. It’s them or Osweiler…

you are forgetting the Titans who could easily win that division.

Bateman

I would have them losing 2 of their last 4 (their next 2 actually) but yes you are right, they aren’t much worse than the Colts or Texans.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Bateman wrote: »

I would have them losing 2 of their last 4 (their next 2 actually) but yes you are right, they aren’t much worse than the Colts or Texans.

They will have to win 3 of 4 to make the playoffs I think but I think they can beat the Bronco's this weekend. The Bronco's offence is putrid and the Titans had a bye week to game plan for this.

Amerika

For the betting man/woman, when winds are over 15 miles per hour, the historical average score of a game goes down to 35 points.

helimachoptor

helimachoptor wrote: »

Titans to win AFC south is 10-1.. i may stick a tenner on it.

Once we get to week 2, i'll kick off my usual over/under betting.

Didnt have a good year last year tbh, so hope to bounce back

never did this

Guffy

Anyone taking the giants tonight? Or have an opinion on it...

Hoki

gufc21 wrote: »

Anyone taking the giants tonight? Or have an opinion on it...

Just found this forum having gotten into the nfl gradually over last few seasons- started betting on nfl this season. Doing quite well - back mostly singles and doubles money line/alternate handicap bets. I took the Cowboys in a double with the Packers +5.5 last night.
Went to bed after the 1st quarter with the Cowboys up 7-0. Woke to see it finish 10-7 Giants. Must have been a mammoth performance from the giants to keep that dallas offence scoreless for the rest of the game.

Bateman

Either that or the Cowboys know that they’re probably going to stroll to a first round bye considering the Seahawks were beaten again…I’d say Dallas obviously knew the Packers score and human nature dictates that your intensity just isn’t going to be the same…I’m saying all this without having watched the game and yeah no doubt the Giants D will be feeling a lot of pain this morning as I don’t doubt it was a fine effort…

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Bateman wrote: »

Either that or the Cowboys know that they’re probably going to stroll to a first round bye considering the Seahawks were beaten again…I’d say Dallas obviously knew the Packers score and human nature dictates that your intensity just isn’t going to be the same…I’m saying all this without having watched the game and yeah no doubt the Giants D will be feeling a lot of pain this morning as I don’t doubt it was a fine effort…

Giants are 2-0 against the Cowboys though

Bateman

Yep it’s definitely no fluke, personally I just have this nagging doubt that the Giants aren’t as good as their record, and I’m not really convinced by their coach, but if I bet against them in the playoffs and lose money so be it, they’ve won Super Bowls in the recent past with teams where you’re scratching your head going “but are they really any good?”…:)

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Bateman wrote: »

Yep it’s definitely no fluke, personally I just have this nagging doubt that the Giants aren’t as good as their record, and I’m not really convinced by their coach, but if I bet against them in the playoffs and lose money so be it, they’ve won Super Bowls in the recent past with teams where you’re scratching your head going “but are they really any good?”…:)

Lets be Frank there is no really outstanding team out there right now. No one has the dominance of the Bronco's defence from last season. The Patriots are of course there again but their defence is a little suspect, I'll be interested to see what Baltimore can do against them tonight.

My gut right now though says Kansas probably because I would like to see them do it

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Speaking of which anyone fancy Baltimore to keep it close tonight?

Bateman

Yeah I would be inclined to take the full TD on Baltimore. They are trending upwards the last number of weeks, Brady is not 100% fit, Gronk is gone for the season and aside from all that, the Pats must be wondering just who else is going to give them a game in the AFC this season.

So if they look on tonight’s opponent as the sort of team that could potentially give them fits in the playoffs, they might not want to reveal too many new offensive wrinkles tonight – and let’s face it, they’re going to need some new offensive wrinkles with Gronk gone. I can see a lot of ground and pound from the Pats tonight.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

I would love of the Pats went to ground and pound. I need Blount to keep Brady off the scoreboard for a Fantasy match up. I have a feeling though there will be lots of scores tonight and my fantasy team will be exiting the playoffs.

IF Flacco and the Ravens can control the clock they can give the Patriots some problems but generally the Pats don't lose in Foxboro!

The real mccoy 91

Just found this thread recently more than happy to discuss any thoughts/ideas doing reasonably well betting wise this season have a nice preseason bet on the pats that's looking decent now look to be head and shoulders the best around at the moment.
Seattle -16 against the rams looks big in a divisional game but the rams look absolutely abysmal and in disarray at the moment. Can't get my head around sacking fisher after giving him an extension? A rookie qb going into the nest doesn't bode too well either I'd expect the rams to get 14 at most so do seattle score 30? They can't be as bad as they were on Sunday again but it sounds like alot i may try find value elsewhere

L.S.F

Made a spreadsheet at the start of the season to track my betting. Up over €200 so far with low stake bets. Haven't been hitting as many accumulators (usually do 2 or 3 €2 fivefolds a week) as usual but wins elsewhere.

Bateman

I actually think that for cold weather football, there are at least two teams better than the Pats right now in the AFC – the Chiefs and the Broncos. I think there are certain teams who can give New England serious problems in the playoffs, even at Foxborough. The Steelers could be another one.

JaMarcusHustle

Bateman wrote:

I actually think that for cold weather football, there are at least two teams better than the Pats right now in the AFC – the Chiefs and the Broncos. I think there are certain teams who can give New England serious problems in the playoffs, even at Foxborough. The Steelers could be another one.

That's a very bold claim. I'd like to hear your reasoning behind this.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

That's a very bold claim. I'd like to hear your reasoning behind this.

The Chiefs defence can give the Patriots real problems, likewise the Broncos. The problems for both teams though is offensively they might not be good enough to score enough points to beat the Patriots.

Steelers ...well they have the best player in the NFL in Bell and with that they have a verygood qb and probably the best WR in the league as well. That team can give anyone problems.

Very hard to win in Foxboro though.

Bateman

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

That's a very bold claim. I'd like to hear your reasoning behind this.

It’s a fact that points per game drop for the playoffs.
Therefore a team like the Pats can’t rely on scoring 30 PPG.
They’re 9th in total defence, behind the likes of Jacksonville and Houston.
15th against the pass and 6th against the run. Blount has more running TDs than anyone else in the league which I didn’t realise, but plenty of miles on the clock there at this stage of the season.

Raw yardage stats which aren’t everyone’s cup of tea I know, but on the eye test they don’t seem to be very good at getting after the QB.

I don’t doubt their coaches’ ability to acclimate Hogan etc into the offence, but I wonder if Brady truly trusts these fellas and I could honestly see them edged out in a 14-13, 14-10 type game.

I know they’re not odds-on favs or anything, so none of this is really controversial, I just don’t think they’re quite as good as their record.

But I know their fans will say “trust the process” and with good reason, the Ravens defence is definitely for real and I didn’t expect them to put up 30.

The real mccoy 91

Bateman wrote:

It’s a fact that points per game drop for the playoffs. Therefore a team like the Pats can’t rely on scoring 30 PPG. They’re 9th in total defence, behind the likes of Jacksonville and Houston. 15th against the pass and 6th against the run. Blount has more running TDs than anyone else in the league which I didn’t realise, but plenty of miles on the clock there at this stage of the season.

Bateman wrote:

It’s a fact that points per game drop for the playoffs. Therefore a team like the Pats can’t rely on scoring 30 PPG. They’re 9th in total defence, behind the likes of Jacksonville and Houston. 15th against the pass and 6th against the run. Blount has more running TDs than anyone else in the league which I didn’t realise, but plenty of miles on the clock there at this stage of the season.

Bateman wrote:

Raw yardage stats which aren’t everyone’s cup of tea I know, but on the eye test they don’t seem to be very good at getting after the QB.

Bateman wrote:

I don’t doubt their coaches’ ability to acclimate Hogan etc into the offence, but I wonder if Brady truly trusts these fellas and I could honestly see them edged out in a 14-13, 14-10 type game.

Bateman wrote:

I know they’re not odds-on favs or anything, so none of this is really controversial, I just don’t think they’re quite as good as their record.

Bateman wrote:

But I know their fans will say “trust the process†and with good reason, the Ravens defence is definitely for real and I didn’t expect them to put up 30.

I'd say the pats are happy enough being the 9th ranked defence to take on the playoffs with they have won a superbowl with worse. Yes it is a case of trust the offence but it is tom Brady and bill belichick we are talking about home or away I still think the pats are good enough to beat the best defences left in the playoff picture.

Bateman

Took a sore one last night, fully convinced 39 was too low so went over. Will put manners on me when it comes to back overs again the weekend in lowish totals such as Jets and Bears games.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Bateman wrote: »

Took a sore one last night, fully convinced 39 was too low so went over. Will put manners on me when it comes to back overs again the weekend in lowish totals such as Jets and Bears games.

a couple of prop bets went arseways on me last night. I backed a FG in the first quarter, Rams going for it on that 4th and 1 killed me, backed no FG in second quarter and boom seattle hit one.

Took Baldwin anytime and seattle win at 8/5 basically covered myself but could have been a pretty poor night.

Not to self .. dont bet when hammered at Christmas party

Bateman

Jesus if you think one NFL game on a Thursday night is bad for betting under the influence, wait until these garbage bowl games start where half the teams don’t even want to be there

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Bateman wrote: »

Jesus if you think one NFL game on a Thursday night is bad for betting under the influence, wait until these garbage bowl games start where half the teams don’t even want to be there

Ah yes the time of he giveth and he taketh away!

The real mccoy 91

Bit of bonus Saturday night football this week how do we feel about the fins minus tannehill? The jets are dreadful San Fran and Cleveland are the only teams they would beat in my eyes so with playoff football still on the line for miami I feel ajayi could carry them through and win

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

Bit of bonus Saturday night football this week how do we feel about the fins minus tannehill? The jets are dreadful San Fran and Cleveland are the only teams they would beat in my eyes so with playoff football still on the line for miami I feel ajayi could carry them through and win

moore wasn't terrible when he came in for Tannehill

eagle eye

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

Bit of bonus Saturday night football this week how do we feel about the fins minus tannehill? The jets are dreadful San Fran and Cleveland are the only teams they would beat in my eyes so with playoff football still on the line for miami I feel ajayi could carry them through and win

Jets aren't that bad against the run. The yardage that they've allowed doesn't really reflect how good they are against the run. They are only allowing 4.0 yards per carry and have only given up 8 rushing tds. It'll be on Moore's shoulders to beat them but I think he will do enough but it might be tight.

Bateman

There is professional money on the Jets apparently, but like the previous posters I fancy the Dolphins, I might wait until closer to game time and then see how many points I can get on Miami.
I also like the overs in that game.
Yes the Jets rallied impressively against the 49ers but that might just have been their last big try of the year.

Bateman

A useful read

http://ukdraftguide.com/2016/12/16/bowl-season-explained/

The most wonderful time of the year

The real mccoy 91

Anyone seeing the cold weather being a factor in the jets tonight? Personally I don't think it'll make a difference and I can see the jets quitting and rolling over easily decided to back miami -5 @ 6/4 and a smaller bet on -7.5 @ 5/2

matthew8

Can't figure out at all how Houston are only 3.5 favourites at home to Jacksonville this week. Looks worth a bet.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

matthew8 wrote: »

Can't figure out at all how Houston are only 3.5 favourites at home to Jacksonville this week. Looks worth a bet.

Think there was a prime example of the bookies being on point in comparison to the public!