September 2016 Boards forecast contest

pauldry

Ok...roll on October

Jpmarn

I hope the average stay above 15c until next Thursday to answer our bonus question. 16.6 is pretty encouraging. But temperatures are going down to seasonable norms for the next few days.

M.T. Cranium

Will count down daily to the mid-month value ... 16.5 after eight days.

M.T. Cranium

16.3 after 9 days.

M.T. Cranium

After 10 days, the IMT stands at 16.0 ... our highest guess for the 15th is 15.4 from Jpmarn, followed by 15.2 from 200motels.

My current estimate is 15.5 based on an average of 14.5 today to Thursday 15th.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT now stands at 15.8 after eleven days, still appears to be settling into the mid-15 range (today may produce even a slight rise back to 15.9 with these warm highs in the east).

Points are pretty much assured of going in order of forecasts at this point.

M.T. Cranium

After 12 days, the IMT is on 15.7(4) and looks to be heading for about 15.4 now.

Rikand

pauldry wrote: »

Ok...roll on 2017

FYP

M.T. Cranium

IMT is 15.6 after 13 days.

MIN of 6.1 at Claremorris on 13th appears to be lowest anywhere so far.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT now stands at 15.5 with the second week at 14.4, about 0.7 above normal, however the anomalies range from +1.5 in the east for the week, to slightly below normal at Shannon and Claremorris.

PRC now at 160% of normal, the second week was 152%.

SUN now on 65% as the second week managed 71%.

(MAX 26.0, MIN 6.1).

M.T. Cranium

So, the IMT after 15 days turned out to be 15.5 C (15.48 to be exact) and that sets up the scoring in order of forecasts:

10 to JPmarn (15.4) and 200motels (15.2)
9 to Sryanbruen and waterways (15.1)
8 to Rikand, Bsal and MrSkinner (15.0)
7 to JD (14.9)
6 to four (Pauldry, Joe Public, Lumi, Mickger844p) who were 14.7 or 14.8
6 also to Con Sensus
4 to three at 14.4 to 14.6 (Tae Laidir, Kindred Spirit, MTC)
3 to four who said 14.1
2 to one at 14.0
1 to anybody else (13s)

M.T. Cranium

Although the IMT has fallen off to 14.9 (after 19 days) the MIN remains on 6.1, with a second reading at that level on the 19th at Mountdillon.

Full update after tomorrow (three weeks).

pauldry

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Although the IMT has fallen off to 14.9 (after 19 days) the MIN remains on 6.1, with a second reading at that level on the 19th at Mountdillon.

Full update after tomorrow (three weeks).

Mins supposed to be 2 or 3c tomorrow night

M.T. Cranium

MIN is now 5.4 (Dublin 20th). Probably will fall a bit lower in coming days (most of us hope so anyway).

pauldry

Already just 6c at Athenry and Claremorris

It will be near 0c by morning.

Very cold out there

Even Sligo by the sea is 7.6c

M.T. Cranium

Markree reporting 2 C at 0300h, 0400h, and 0500h, and 1 C at 0600h. Will edit this post with anything equal or colder as we go, mins are probably possible as late as 0600h or 0700h now. Moorepark has been reporting 3 C at 0400-0600h.

Autumn equinox at 3:21 p.m. (1421z) today.

I may not need the mercy rule on the IMT or the MIN after all.

pauldry

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Markree reporting 2 C at 0300h, 0400h, and 0500h, and 1 C at 0600h. Will edit this post with anything equal or colder as we go, mins are probably possible as late as 0600h or 0700h now. Moorepark has been reporting 3 C at 0400-0600h.

Autumn equinox at 3:21 p.m. (1421z) today.

I may not need the mercy rule on the IMT or the MIN after all.

Mt Dillon was also low but Markree won out i think. Sligo town was just 3.8c even with Atlantic n Urban factors

John mac

When i was leaving home this am (05:10) had to scrape the ice off the windscreen . car was showing 1 deg. (near Delvin, co Westmeath)

M.T. Cranium

Meanwhile, almost forgot to do this update ...

After three weeks (21 days) ...

IMT on 14.6 after third week rather cool, 12.7 C which is 0.3 below normal for the period.

PRC down to 121% of normal now, after the third week was relatively dry (62% of normal).

SUN still quite deficient at 63% of normal, after this week managed only 68% of normal.

M.T. Cranium

MIN to be more precise was 1.3 C at Markree on 22nd.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks ...

IMT at 14.24, the week was 13.2 which is 0.8 above normal (mainly thanks to the past two days). Would say that likely finish is 14.0, anything between 9.5 and 11.2 for the last two days of the month will put us in that range, outside chance of 13.9.

MAX and MIN remain unchanged.

PRC stays about the same at 120% as the week averaged 118%. There's enough rain likely to keep this about the finishing value too.

SUN "improved" to 69% with this week at 88% and the two Dublin area stations actually a bit above normal. I imagine this will settle in at about 70% and that could require a bit of score inflation, might just score it off 80% if that's the low forecast.

With that in mind I will post a provisional scoring summary soon because we'll be waiting for the 4th of October to get the confirmed final values. We could see a change in the MIN as 1.3 is certainly not home free, and if I know about that in time to edit the table, I will do that.

M.T. Cranium

Provisional scoring for September

This will be confirmed on Tuesday 4th of October as that's the publication date for the MS. However, I may refine this table with data that I can confirm. The estimates used are shown above the scores, and for now, they remain in the same order as the forecast table. The IMT on 15th is settled (see post 42).


FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__IMT 15th____ TOTALS

Estimated values _____ 14.0_26.0_1.3_120_070____15.5

sryanbruen __________ 23 _ 16*_ 00 _ 12 _ 04*____ 9 _______ 64
Joe Public ___________ 24 _ 13*_ 16 _ 07 _ 07*____ 6 _______ 73
Sunflower3 __________ 25 _ 10*_ 15 _ 05 _ 05*____ 3 _______ 63
pauldry _____________ 25 _ 09*_ 12 _ 11 _ 06*____ 6 _______ 69
Rikand __ (-2) _______ 25 _ 04*_ 00 _ 03 _ 04*____ 8 __ 44-2= 42
Jpmarn______________24 _ 18*_ 15 _ 13 _ 02*___ 10 _______ 82
waterways ___________24 _ 09*_ 00 _ 11 _ 08*____ 9 _______ 61
jd __________________24 _ 05*_ 11 _ 08 _ 06*____ 7 _______ 61
Bsal ________________24 _ 04*_ 12 _ 08 _ 06*____ 8 _______ 62
200motels ___________23 _ 16*_ 02 _ 10 _ 08*___ 10 _______ 69
Tae laidir ____________23 _ 02*_ 07 _ 13 _ 07*____ 4 _______ 56

Con Sensus _________ 23 _ 09*_ 12 _ 10 _ 06*____ 6 _______ 66

M.T. Cranium ________22 _ 17*_ 07 _ 03 _ 05*____ 4 _______ 58
Rameire ____________22 _ 02*_ 17 _ 12 _ 08*____ 3 _______ 64
Lumi _______________22 _ 01*_ 00 _ 11 _ 07*____ 6 _______ 47
DOCARCH ___________21 _ 12*_ 03 _ 06 _ 04*____ 1 _______ 47
Kindred Spirit ________21 _ 04*_ 07 _ 08 _ 06*____ 4 _______ 50
MrSkinner ___________20 _ 11*_ 12 _ 03 _ 05*____ 8 _______ 59
Dasa29 _____________20 _ 09*_ 13 _ 10 _ 07*____ 2 _______ 61
Dacogawa ___________18 _ 14*_ 16 _ 07 _ 04*____ 3 _______ 62
mickger844posts _(-4)_ 17 _ 04*_ 00 _ 10 _ 07*____ 6 __ 44-4=40

Norma L ____________ 16 _ 16*_ 00 _ 08 _ 06*____ 1 _______ 47

john mac ___ (-2) ____ 15 _ 15*_ 17 _ 09 _ 06*____ 1 __ 63-2=61
Carnacalla___________ 13 _ 06*_ 06 _ 15 _ 10*____ 3 _______ 53
______________________________________________________________

* minimum progression rule for MAX, raw scores generally 5-10 lower for top half
* scored sunshine from 80 which gives everyone 2 extra points (more or less a minimum progression application) .. this is now locked in for any actual SUN value.

The MIN could change, if it does, and your forecast is below 1.3, you'll gain unless it goes well below that, then some higher scores will drop a bit, but anyone who predicted above 1.3 can only lose points now with a new MIN. For that reason, these scores are quite provisional indeed if we were to see a reading closer to zero tonight, everyone's total could change by ten or more.

If these scores remain, the annual table would tighten up a little, most of the higher scores are in the lower half of the table.



Actual forecasts

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ IMT 15th

sryanbruen __________ 14.2 _ 25.0 _ 4.9 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 15.1
Joe Public ___________ 14.1 _ 24.6 _ 0.9 _ 145 _ 095 ____ 14.7
Sunflower3 __________ 14.0 _ 24.2 _ 1.8 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 14.1
pauldry _____________ 14.0 _ 24.0 _ 2.1 _ 108 _ 101 ____ 14.8
Rikand __ (-2) _______ 14.0 _ 23.0_--2.0 _ 085 _ 110 ____ 15.0
Jpmarn______________13.9 _ 25.6 _ 0.8 _ 115 _ 120 ____ 15.4
waterways ___________13.9 _ 24.0_--0.8 _ 108 _ 092 ____ 15.1
jd __________________13.9 _ 23.2 _ 0.4 _ 098 _ 098 ____ 14.9
Bsal ________________ 13.9 _ 23.0 _ 0.5 _ 100 _ 098 ____ 15.0
200motels ___________ 13.8 _ 25.0_--0.5 _ 104 _ 090 ____ 15.2
Tae laidir ____________ 13.8 _ 22.6 _ 0.0 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 14.4

Con Sensus __________ 13.8 _ 24.0 _ 0.5 _ 104 _ 100 ____ 14.7

M.T. Cranium _________ 13.7 _ 26.6 _ 0.0 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 14.6
Rameire _____________ 13.7 _ 22.5 _ 1.0 _ 112 _ 092 ____ 14.1
Lumi ________________ 13.7 _ 22.2_--2.0 _ 109 _ 094 ____ 14.7
DOCARCH ____________ 13.6 _ 24.7_--0.4 _ 092 _ 108 ____ 13.9
Kindred Spirit _________ 13.6 _ 23.0 _ 0.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 14.4
MrSkinner ____________ 13.5 _ 24.5 _ 0.5 _ 085 _ 105 ____ 15.0
Dasa29 ______________ 13.5 _ 24.0 _ 2.0 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 14.0
Dacogawa ____________ 13.3 _ 24.8 _ 0.9 _ 097 _ 108 ____ 14.1
mickger844posts _(-4) __ 13.2 _ 23.0 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 093 ____ 14.7

Norma L _____________ 13.1 _ 25.0 _--1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 13.8

john mac ___ (-2) _____ 13.0 _ 24.8 _ 1.6 _ 103 _ 102 ____ 13.3
Carnacalla____________ 12.8 _ 23.5 _ 2.7 _ 120 _ 080 ____ 14.1
______________________________________________________________

M.T. Cranium

IMT is confirmed at 14.0 (was 14.04 before rounding).

MIN stayed at 1.3, nothing much to challenge that value before midnight at least.

Will check MS but looks like PRC around 120% and SUN 75% so the scoring will be updated on the fourth.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed all data as previous, IMT 14.0, MAX 26.0, MIN 1.3
PRC actually 123% this results in one point deduction on all scores.
SUN actually 73% making no difference as scores already from 80% (min prog)
Bonus was settled earlier.

Final scoring for September 2016

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__IMT 15th____ TOTALS

Confirmed values _____ 14.0_26.0_1.3_123_073____15.5

Jpmarn______________24 _ 18*_ 15 _ 12 _ 02*___ 10 _______ 81
Joe Public ___________ 24 _ 13*_ 16 _ 06 _ 07*____ 6 _______ 72
200motels ___________23 _ 16*_ 02 _ 09 _ 08*___ 10 _______ 68
pauldry _____________ 25 _ 09*_ 12 _ 10 _ 06*____ 6 _______ 68

Con Sensus __________23 _ 09*_ 12 _ 09 _ 06*____ 6 _______ 65

sryanbruen __________ 23 _ 16*_ 00 _ 11 _ 04*____ 9 _______ 63
Rameire _____________22 _ 02*_ 17 _ 11 _ 08*____ 3 _______ 63
Sunflower3 __________ 25 _ 10*_ 15 _ 04 _ 05*____ 3 _______ 62
Bsal ________________24 _ 04*_ 12 _ 07 _ 06*____ 8 _______ 61
Dacogawa ___________ 18 _ 14*_ 16 _ 06 _ 04*____ 3 _______ 61
waterways ___________24 _ 09*_ 00 _ 10 _ 08*____ 9 _______ 60
jd __________________24 _ 05*_ 11 _ 07 _ 06*____ 7 _______ 60
Dasa29 _____________ 20 _ 09*_ 13 _ 09 _ 07*____ 2 _______ 60
john mac ___ (-2) ____ 15 _ 15*_ 17 _ 08 _ 06*____ 1 __ 62-2=60
MrSkinner ___________ 20 _ 11*_ 12 _ 02 _ 05*____ 8 _______ 58
M.T. Cranium ________ 22 _ 17*_ 07 _ 02 _ 05*____ 4 _______ 57
Tae laidir ____________23 _ 02*_ 07 _ 12 _ 07*____ 4 _______ 55
Carnacalla___________ 13 _ 06*_ 06 _ 14 _ 10*____ 3 _______ 52
Kindred Spirit ________ 21 _ 04*_ 07 _ 07 _ 06*____ 4 _______ 49
Lumi _______________ 22 _ 01*_ 00 _ 10 _ 07*____ 6 _______ 46
DOCARCH ___________ 21 _ 12*_ 03 _ 05 _ 04*____ 1 _______ 46

Norma L ____________ 16 _ 16*_ 00 _ 07 _ 06*____ 1 _______ 46

Rikand __ (-2) _______ 25 _ 04*_ 00 _ 02 _ 04*____ 8 __43-2= 41
mickger844posts _(-4)_ 17 _ 04*_ 00 _ 09 _ 07*____ 6 __ 43-4=39
______________________________________________________________

* Minimum progression applied to these scores (boosted due to low field average)

Congrats to JPmarn for high score, and Joe Public a respectable second, also 200motels and Pauldry managed to beat Con Sensus. ... Annual update will be posted within the hour, I hope.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring update Jan to Aug 2016

This month, the scoring table is determined by best 8 of 9, your rank for total score (9 out of 9) is shown in brackets at the end of the scoring row. Next month will adjust to best 8 out of 10 to begin the countdown to the contest results (best 10 scores out of 12).


rank/score_FORECASTER __ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun _Jul _Aug_ Sep __ TOTAL SCORE (rank)


01 560 _ Con Sensus ______73 _ 75 _ 77 _ 70 _ 67 _ 57 _ 65 _ 68 _ 65 __ 617 (1)

01 558 sunflower3 ________72 _ 71 _ 81 _ 43 _ 61 _ 63 _ 74 _ 73 _ 62 __ 600 (3)
02 556 waterways________ 75 _ 75 _ 58 _ 66 _ 75 _ 75 _ 72 _ 50 _ 60 __ 606 (2)
03 551 MrSkinner_________83 _ 66 _ 64 _ 58 _ 73 _ 67 _ 71 _ 69 _ 58 __ 609 (1)
04 547 Lumi ____________ 71 _ 72 _ 89 _ 59 _ 65 _ 60 _ 57 _ 74 _ 46 __ 593 (4)
05 537 mickger844posts __ 78 _ 63 _ 89 _ 68 _ 79 _ 59 _ --- _ 62 _ 39 __ 537 (11t)
06 536 sryanbruen _______ 27 _ 63 _ 52 _ 76 _ 65 _ 72 _ 70 _ 76 _ 62 __ 563 (7)
07 522 Tae laidir _________86 _ 76 _ 76 _ 46 _ 47 _ 53 _ 57 _ 72 _ 55 __ 568 (6)
08 515 Rameire __________69 _ 60 _ 70 _ 72 _ 59 _ 63 _ 55 _ 59 _ 63 __ 570 (5)
09 513 DOCARCH ________ 53 _ 62 _ 61 _ 71 _ 71 _ 58 _ 75 _ 62 _ 46 __ 559 (8)
10 510 Dacogawa ________ 52 _ 58 _ 89 _ 50 _ 75 _ 47 _ 66 _ 59 _ 61 __ 557 (9)
11 508 200motels ________ 46 _ 68 _ 74 _ 61 _ 70 _ 22 _ 66 _ 55 _ 68 __ 530 (18)
12 506 Jpmarn ___________64 _ 60 _ 47 _ 75 _ 73 _ 51 _ 55 _ 37 _ 81 __ 543 (10)
13 505 Joe Public _________28 _ 63 _ 65 _ 72 _ 63 _ 59 _ 62 _ 49 _ 72 __ 533 (16)

14 504 Norma L __________52 _ 65 _ 70 _ 57 _ 71 _ 61 _ 73 _ 55 _ 46 __ 550 (10)

14 497 JD_______________ 69 _ 77 _ 32 _ 71 _ 61 _ 45 _ 67 _ 47 _ 60 __ 529 (19)
15 496 Rikand ___________ 67 _ 76 _ 54 _ 54 _ 73 _ 60 _ 52 _ 60 _ 41 __ 537 (11t)
16t 491 Bsal ____________ 65 _ 66 _ 66 _ 60 _ 53 _ 45 _ 52 _ 68 _ 61 __ 536 (14t)
16t 491 Pauldry__________ 53 _ 69 _ 45 _ 80 _ 56 _ 45 _ 55 _ 65 _ 68 __ 536 (14t)
18 488 Dasa29 ___________66 _ 58 _ 67 _ 53 _ 56 _ 53 _ 49 _ 75 _ 60 __ 537 (11t)
19 486 M.T. Cranium ______46 _ 62 _ 78 _ 66 _ 69 _ 45 _ 58 _ 50 _ 57 __ 531 (17)
20 472 John mac _________72 _ 57 _ 36 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 50 _ 66 _ 60 __ 508 (20)

21 467 kindredspirit ______ --- _ 35 _ 65 _ 58 _ 61 _ 41 _ 79 _ 79 _ 49 __ 467 (21)
22 ___ lostinashford _____ 69 _ 66 _ 63 _ 78 _ 77 _ 36 _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 389
23 ___ Schadenfreudia ___ 65 _ 72 _ 58 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 260
24 ___ omicron _________ 76 _ 43 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 191
25 ___ Carnacalla _______ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 33 _ --- _ 52 __ 157
26 ___ Timmyboy _______ --- _ 53 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 53
27 ___ Elmer Blooker ____ --- _ --- _ 51 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 51
______________________________________________________________

Scoring really tightened up in September as several from the lower half of the table made a sprint past Norma L and a few others, ending up middle of the pack now, with the leaders scrambled up somewhat from last month and struggling to keep pace with surging (sigh) Con Sensus who now leads both categories. The top six are almost too close to call at this point, congrats to sunflower3 for leading the annual contest and MrSkinner has a slight lead in the MTC total score division.

If you look at second lowest scores you can see that Mickger844posts has a lower one to drop than anyone ahead of him, and Sryanbruen also has a lower value to drop than anyone but Mick, which is why I say top six too close to call.

We will be dropping two scores next month in this table, meaning that you'll see the full extent of the comparisons.