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Autumn Weather 2016 - General Discussion

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    #782
    realdanbreen
    Registered Users Posts: 8,211 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    Droidman?

    Its possible to make an educated guess.

    Of course it's possible to make a guess but that is all you would be doing guessing! You might as well go eeney meeney miney mo. But why would you bother as it is impossible to tell what the weather is going to be like in several weeks time.


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    #783
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,181 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Would you like to back up your bold and aggressively made points?


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    #784
    realdanbreen
    Registered Users Posts: 8,211 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    Would you like to back up your bold and aggressively made points?

    You're kidding right! You want me to 'back up' something that is impossible. Surely the onus is on you to provide evidence that it IS possible.


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    #785
    droidman123
    Registered Users Posts: 5,536 ✭✭✭droidman123


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    Droidman?

    Its possible to make an educated guess.

    No,he just shares the same opinion as me.anyone that knows anything about weather knows our weather cannot be forecast accurately beyond 5-7 days.yes it can be "guessed" and sometimes anyone can get lucky,but theres no scientific proof whatsoever that it can be done.even the professionals in met eireann will tell you that.


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    #786
    Harvey Normal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 750 ✭✭✭Harvey Normal


    realdanbreen wrote: »
    You're kidding right! You want me to 'back up' something that is impossible. Surely the onus is on you to provide evidence that it IS possible.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/10/17/met-office-can-now-predict-winter-weather-one-year-in-advance/


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    #787
    realdanbreen
    Registered Users Posts: 8,211 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    Harvey Normal wrote: »
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/10/17/met-office-can-now-predict-winter-weather-one-year-in-advance/


    With all due respect that article is worthless in terms of evidence or proof of anything.


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    #788
    Harvey Normal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 750 ✭✭✭Harvey Normal


    realdanbreen wrote: »
    With all due respect that article is worthless in terms of evidence or proof of anything.

    Why is that Dan. It is after all quoting the British meteorological office. Why would you say it is useless.


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    #789
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    I don't agree with forecasting a year in advance. With 42% accuracy, as that Telegraph article points out. A guess would probably result in 50% accuracy.

    With regards to forecasting over 10 days in advance there have been some notable predictions. The onset of wintry weather at the end of November 2010 was predicted by some forecasters over 10 days out. However most of the time in mobile weather patterns a week seems to be the limit.


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    #790
    realdanbreen
    Registered Users Posts: 8,211 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    Harvey Normal wrote: »
    Why is that Dan. It is after all quoting the British meteorological office. Why would you say it is useless.

    Well Harvey as someone else pointed out, a guess would probably have a 50% chance of being correct while this article suggest that the new system 'might' be 42% accurate.


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    #791
    Harvey Normal
    Closed Accounts Posts: 750 ✭✭✭Harvey Normal


    realdanbreen wrote: »
    Well Harvey as someone else pointed out, a guess would probably have a 50% chance of being correct while this article suggest that the new system 'might' be 42% accurate.

    so you think that the met office is crowing about something that's less reliable than a guess? Bit odd.


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    #792
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,181 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    So, are you looking for a discussion, or do you just think you can come here and force your opinion?

    Alot of people in this forum, many who have vast experience in Meteorology, don't share the same views, so it is completely fair to ask for an explanation of your views, and it would be respected if you responded in a respectful tone.

    Based on your opinion, all weather models, which often forecast from 24hours to around 240hours, just become completely inaccurate at a certain stage, infact less accurate than a guess? (How is a guess 50% when there is much much much more than 2 outcomes? Basic maths here).

    Fair enough, this ****e about the stars alligning and the animals, but the Atlantic can be predicted, breakdown in high pressure and low pressure can be foretasted, with a level of accuracy.

    Also keep in mind, that you have nothing to back up your assertions other than that being your own opinion. Do not come on here and tell us what our opinions are, respectful conversation is appreciated.


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    #793
    Padster90s
    Registered Users Posts: 272 ✭✭Padster90s


    Irish weather is fairly predictable based on our Oceanic climate. 9 times out of 10 normal weather for our climate prevails. Its the other 1 time out of 10 that is much less predictable and can happen decades apart.


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    #794
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 2,064 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Logs into boards.ie weather...Oh dear,everybody's arguing. The cold spell trend for early November must have gone down the ****ter...


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    #795
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,181 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    squarecircles wrote: »
    Logs into boards.ie weather...Oh dear,everybody's arguing. The cold spell trend for early November must have gone down the ****ter...

    It seems to have done so, looks like a northwesterly with temps around 7-10c and maybe 1-3 at night (My unexperienced looking at the charts)


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    #796
    ArKl0w
    Closed Accounts Posts: 787 ✭✭✭ArKl0w


    squarecircles wrote: »
    Logs into boards.ie weather...Oh dear,everybody's arguing. The cold spell trend for early November must have gone down the ****ter...

    Who in the name of god thinks there'd be a low ground snow event in the first week or two in November anyway,you'd want to be pretty naive
    Snow on November 27th 2010 was practically December,3 weeks off the shortest day of the year

    The upper pattern is indeed sweet but will it hold until the time of year we can realistically expect snow from artic intrusions? Why not


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    #797
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    squarecircles wrote: »
    Logs into boards.ie weather...Oh dear,everybody's arguing. The cold spell trend for early November must have gone down the ****ter...

    Might be no harm that the cold trend for early November isn't realised. Too early for anything wintry and might be a waste of cold weather synoptics that would best occur later in the winter season ;)


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    #798
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    Halloween 2008 brought some snowfall on higher ground and in the north..but it only lasts as long as April snowfall and that's not too long..


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    #799
    Eamondomc
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,921 ✭✭✭Eamondomc


    The only definite prediction I would make is, there will be weather in all areas!


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    #800
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,196 ✭✭✭pad199207


    nagdefy wrote: »
    Halloween 2008 brought some snowfall on higher ground and in the north..but it only lasts as long as April snowfall and that's not too long..

    I remember a white Halloween 2008 here in Naas. A good dusting!


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    #801
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    pad199207 wrote: »
    I remember a white Halloween 2008 here in Naas. A good dusting!

    That winter was reasonably cold after Pad. Not as cold as 2009-2010 or December 2010.

    But we got decent snowfall in early February 2009. It lasted on the hills from 1st February until 23rd February. Lower ground east got a nice bit. Also January was colder than normal with 1 day snow events.


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    #802
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    I know it's the Met Office speaking about long range winter forecasts before each winter season and not Inexacta Weather and the Daily Express. But i still find it hard to believe in its accuracy.

    42% would be be impressive enough over a long period of time if you pick one of the following for a winter for example and it comes to pass.

    1. Cold and Dry
    2. Cold and Snowy precipitation.
    3. Mild and Dry.
    4. Mild and Wet.
    5. Mild, Wet and Windy
    6. Colder than average, Wetter than average and Windy.

    There's just too much regional variation for me though for general predictions. You could have a wet and windy winter but if the prevailing wind during zonal periods is northwesterly the western half of the country could see quite a bit of snow as in 2015. If the zonal period brings south westerlies the temperatures could be more like last December 2015/January 2016 when Malin Head hit 16C at 4am one December morning.

    A lot has to be spot on for these long range winter predictions in my opinion.


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    #803
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,181 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    But you can't forecast the regional differences, you can forecast the frontal zones, and the areas of pressure etc, but not regional cloud cover/temperature variations etc from a month out


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    #804
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    But you can't forecast the regional differences, you can forecast the frontal zones, and the areas of pressure etc, but not regional cloud cover/temperature variations etc from a month out

    I don't really believe we can forecast frontal zones and areas of pressure etc from too far out though Carnacalla.

    Personally i don't think we can forecast with any accuracy the pressure setup for say 3 months time, 25th January. I've no science to back it up, it's just my opinion really.


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    #805
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,181 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    nagdefy wrote: »
    I don't really believe we can forecast frontal zones and areas of pressure etc from too far out though Carnacalla.

    Personally i don't think we can forecast with any accuracy the pressure setup for say 3 months time, 25th January. I've no science to back it up, it's just my opinion really.

    Fair enough, I'd have my own suspicions, but I think there is some accuracy involved, but not enough to bet on it!


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    #806
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    Fair enough, I'd have my own suspicions, but I think there is some accuracy involved, but not enough to bet on it!

    The prospect of a drier winter is something to be welcomed for the west of the country.

    I suppose like everything we need a few more years to evaluate the MetOffice predictions.


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    #807
    511
    Closed Accounts Posts: 532 ✭✭✭511


    nagdefy wrote: »
    Halloween 2008 brought some snowfall on higher ground and in the north..but it only lasts as long as April snowfall and that's not too long..

    I'm at 70m ASL in Meath and we got at least 2 inches around Halloween 2008. I remember on Bebo, a friend in Wexford posted that he'd never seen so much snow in his life.


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    #808
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    511 wrote: »
    I'm at 70m ASL in Meath and we got at least 2 inches around Halloween 2008. I remember on Bebo, a friend in Wexford posted that he'd never seen so much snow in his life.

    It was more widespread than i remembered so.


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    #809
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    Mild bank holiday weekend ahead. Not sure if it will last until Monday but 16/17C maxes are very good for Halloween and marathon running!

    In 2014 the UK recorded it's highest ever Halloween temperature, 23C. Last year Doaks in Co. Kerry recorded 19.8C on November 1st with sunshine. Must have been a beautiful late autumn day there.


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    #810
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    nagdefy wrote: »
    In 2014 the UK recorded it's highest ever Halloween temperature, 23C.

    Actually 23.6C!

    I find this link great for UK and some irish stats. Here's the October link but just type in any month in the address bar to get data on that month.

    http://www.trevorharley.com/trevorharley/weather_web_pages/british_weather_in_october.htm


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    #811
    realdanbreen
    Registered Users Posts: 8,211 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    So, are you looking for a discussion, or do you just think you can come here and force your opinion?

    Alot of people in this forum, many who have vast experience in Meteorology, don't share the same views, so it is completely fair to ask for an explanation of your views, and it would be respected if you responded in a respectful tone.

    Based on your opinion, all weather models, which often forecast from 24hours to around 240hours, just become completely inaccurate at a certain stage, infact less accurate than a guess? (How is a guess 50% when there is much much much more than 2 outcomes? Basic maths here).

    Fair enough, this ****e about the stars alligning and the animals, but the Atlantic can be predicted, breakdown in high pressure and low pressure can be foretasted, with a level of accuracy.

    Also keep in mind, that you have nothing to back up your assertions other than that being your own opinion. Do not come on here and tell us what our opinions are, respectful conversation is appreciated.

    OK I'm going to make a guess that the weather in 3 weeks time, Wed 16th November, is going to be 6degrees and scattered showers. What is your forecast for that date? I'm giving you a great chance here as it's only 3 weeks away and you believe that it's possible to forecast months in advance. BTW I hope this post is 'respectful' enough for you:D


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