Autumn Weather 2016 - General Discussion

hotwhiskey

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks like the positive signs for cold lovers in the longer term are beginning to fade.

Signs of the PV re-organising around the Pole with the chance of a more mobile and unsettled regime as we move into December. However, still some uncertainty.

Still no clear sign of PV strengthening over the pole yet in the medium time range weathercheck

Gonzo

It's been a great autumn so far but now I feel like being selfish. We've had some frost and even some sleet and a few flakes of snow from the west.

However none of that really matters, we need the polar gates from siberia to open at some stage between now and mid February to pile those snow trains into Leinster on an easterly wind. An extra bonus would be keeping the Isle of Man shadow north of Dundalk so we can all enjoy the fun.

I don't care if there isn't another Atlantic based wintry period, we've had enough of those over past 5 years. However we haven't had a proper easterly or even proper snow for that matter since 2010. It's been 6 long winters with nothing to show for them, it's time this winter works out for us.

Reckless Abandonment

WC, winters over already
The gfs is all guns blazing to cold. Just need the ecm onside now.

josip

As a lurker rather than poster, can someone explain the general enthusiasm on here for an extreme cold event, whereas there seems to be significantly less enthusiasm for a decent Atlantic storm.
I thought last winter was very interesting even though it wasn't white.

JCX BXC

josip wrote: »

As a lurker rather than poster, can someone explain the general enthusiasm on here for an extreme cold event, whereas there seems to be significantly less enthusiasm for a decent Atlantic storm.
I thought last winter was very interesting even though it wasn't white.

The rarity of the event really. Love storms myself, but would love a cold spell this winter.

Looking like a cold night tonight! Even Met Eireann saying down to -5c and there's a forecast of Freezing fog at Shannon overnight.

Gonzo

josip wrote: »

As a lurker rather than poster, can someone explain the general enthusiasm on here for an extreme cold event, whereas there seems to be significantly less enthusiasm for a decent Atlantic storm.
I thought last winter was very interesting even though it wasn't white.

we get significant wind/atlantic events all the time! not so much this winter so far but they pale in comparison to the excitement for an extreme cold and snowy easterly or widespread thunderstorm activity in the summer.

Snow/easterly's rarely occur more than once or twice per decade. For a country this far north, we have to have the worst frequency of snow. Even places much further south like Greece see snow more often in the winter than many parts of Ireland.

hotwhiskey

josip wrote: »

As a lurker rather than poster, can someone explain the general enthusiasm on here for an extreme cold event, whereas there seems to be significantly less enthusiasm for a decent Atlantic storm.
I thought last winter was very interesting even though it wasn't white.

Talking about snow here: It has a sence of stillness and peace when falling from the sky but I think it brings out the child within us (been a long time ago when I was a child) and when you have that feeling you have not a care in the world .

Edit: Still freezing here -1 at 1pm.

pedigree 6

josip wrote: »

As a lurker rather than poster, can someone explain the general enthusiasm on here for an extreme cold event, whereas there seems to be significantly less enthusiasm for a decent Atlantic storm.
I thought last winter was very interesting even though it wasn't white.

It's the thrill of the chase and the rarity of such a weather event in this country.
It's like a bird twitcher spotting a golden eagle in the centre of Dublin city.
I don't really like Atlantic storms as they bring flooding and wind damage to people and property. Whereas snow still has a bit of risk but can usually be managed with a bit of care and work.

It actually makes it all the more exciting when we were told 15 years ago that we nor future generations would ever see snow again in this country and to expect more wet and stormy conditions. So to have snow again is manna from heaven. That said the novelty wore off for me after a month of such conditions in 09 and 10. But I still like to have such conditions back again for the sake of it. I'm weird.:D

Elmer Blooker

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Edit: Still freezing here -1 at 1pm.

Thats incredible!! Its so mild where I am I have the window open. 8.8c.

johndeere3350

What's the general consensus for the next 10 days?

pedigree 6

johndeere3350 wrote: »

What's the general consensus for the next 10 days?

Nobody knows!:pac:

High pressure till next Wednesday.
After that?

ninebeanrows

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

WC, winters over already
The gfs is all guns blazing to cold. Just need the ecm onside now.

GFS is interesting.

However, the EC ensemble mean at 240hrs indicates a return of the westerlies. And this is much more significant than a single GFS run.

Let's hope it's wrong

ninebeanrows

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Still no clear sign of PV strengthening over the pole yet in the medium time range weathercheck

That's the CFSv2 which runs with the NCEP (GFS model) as its starting point. And as has been alluded to on here, the GFS op run and majority of its ensmbles are still going for high latitude blocking going into week 3/4. However, the EC is not and thus a similar chart derived from the EC and its ensemble suite would look very different.


--- The next monthly output update will be released tonight from both the CFSv2 and EC.

Gonzo

IF the atlantic does roar back in before Christmas, that could potentially be curtains on this winter yet again. Rarely does the Atlantic roar back in only to die down a few weeks later. If the atlantic roars back in, it could stay like that for 3-5 months easily. The atlantic can bring cold and snow but for the eastern half of the country it usually amounts to nothing more than dandruff or a short spell of wet sleet/snow.

The Atlantic has been mostly inactive since late August really, we've had 3 months with only glimpse's of rain and many weeks on end with no wind or very little rain.

Oscar Bravo

National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Fog Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal
Widespread dense fog expected overnight in much of Connacht and Ulster, with some freezing fog in places.

Issued:Thursday 24 November 2016 11:00
Valid:Thursday 24 November 2016 21:00 to Friday 25 November 2016 10:00


STATUS YELLOW

Low Temperature Warning for Munster, Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal
Away from the south coast, temperatures overnight will fall to lower than minus three degrees locally
.

Issued:Thursday 24 November 2016 11:00
Valid:Thursday 24 November 2016 19:00 to Friday 25 November 2016 10:00

Oscar Bravo

1700 reports. Mount Dillon Roscommon 0 degrees.

Gonzo

amazing differences between the east and west today. It's rare that we are much milder in winter, today got close to 10C here and sunny. Saw a few people wearing light clothing.

fryup

serious question...

are we in a drought situation??...hasn't rained in ages..no rain forecast for the foreseeable future either

josip

fryup wrote: »

serious question...

are we in a drought situation??...hasn't rained in ages..no rain forecast for the foreseeable future either

Depends where you are
It rained very heavily in Dun Laoghaire yesterday afternoon
It rained on Monday
It rained nearly all day Tuesday last week if I remember correctly

squarecircles

Baltic cold in Mayo this evening,started freezing around 7 0clock,reminds me of 2010,orange warning now for low temperatures in Mayo tonight,possibly falling below -5

Seems Mayo always ends up being the coldest or hottest spot in extreme weather.

JCX BXC

RTE weather forecast (Met Eireann) saying it could get down to -6 in places tonight.

pedigree 6

JCX BXC wrote: »

RTE weather forecast (Met Eireann) saying it could get down to -6 in places tonight.

Markree Sligo is already -3c Humidity 98
Ballyhaise Cavan -2c Humidity 98

To contrast
Phoenix Park Dublin 8c Humidity 72

squarecircles

National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Low Temperature Warning for Donegal and Mayo
Temperatures falling to minus 5 degrees Celsius or possibly lower for a time overnight

Issued:Thursday 24 November 2016 19:00
Valid:Thursday 24 November 2016 21:00 to Friday 25 November 2016 10:00

Xenji

squarecircles wrote: »

National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Low Temperature Warning for Donegal and Mayo
Temperatures falling to minus 5 degrees Celsius or possibly lower for a time overnight

Issued:Thursday 24 November 2016 19:00
Valid:Thursday 24 November 2016 21:00 to Friday 25 November 2016 10:00

Currently -1.2C in Castlebar, it got down to -3.4C last night.

Hooter23

"Huge uncertainty" with next weeks forecast according to BBC weather could go either way could be very mild or very cold !

pqdvdplayer

squarecircles wrote: »

Baltic cold in Mayo this evening,started freezing around 7 0clock,reminds me of 2010,orange warning now for low temperatures in Mayo tonight,possibly falling below -5

Seems Mayo always ends up being the coldest or hottest spot in extreme weather.

Best positioned county to catch the coldest weather during north easterlys
Best positioned county to catch the warmest weather during south easterlys
Every other weather situation - terribly positioned

pedigree 6

Hooter23 wrote: »

"Huge uncertainty" with next weeks forecast according to BBC weather could go either way could be very mild or very cold !

John Hammond gives a good explanation of the situation with the jet stream being very wavy atm. He explained how some weather models have us in the warm rises south of the jet stream and other models have us in the cold dips north of the jet stream.

I wonder is he just letting us down gently after the screamers of polar setups that some models were showing.:pac:

eastmayo

pqdvdplayer wrote: »

Best positioned county to catch the coldest weather during north easterlys
Best positioned county to catch the warmest weather during south easterlys
Every other weather situation - terribly positioned

If we could catch sam we would be very happy.

Xenji

Freezing fog settling into Castlebar now.

esposito

Hooter23 wrote: »

"Huge uncertainty" with next weeks forecast according to BBC weather could go either way could be very mild or very cold !

Let's face it - the mild atlantic will probably win