The Jumpers are coming 16/17

posturingpat

One to sit back and enjoy without an investment. Can't wait.

longshotvalue

nehe milner skudder wrote: »

Thistlecrack at 11/8


Sell the family silver?

Four legged cash machine?



I think so .


I'm going in belly button deep

11/8 is too short on what we know.

Cue Card is the best Staying chaser since Kauto Star and beat a superstar here last year. I really hope thistlecrak puts it up to him as it will be a great race.

Cue Card is still one of the most underrated horses around. Apart from last years Gold Cup, he has basically slaughtered everything in the top races. Apart from Vautour.

There will be better bets around and id prefer to watch it than win or loose my bollix on an 11/8 shot that should be about 7/2 at least.

posturingpat

aidankkk wrote: »

11/8 is too short on what we know.

Cue Card is the best Staying chaser since Kauto Star and beat a superstar here last year. I really hope thistlecrak puts it up to him as it will be a great race.

Cue Card is still one of the most underrated horses around. Apart from last years Gold Cup, he has basically slaughtered everything in the top races. Apart from Vautour.

There will be better bets around and id prefer to watch it than win or loose my bollix on an 11/8 shot that should be about 7/2 at least.

:rolleyes: DON COSSACK

EICVD

kfallon wrote: »

Thought Valseur Lido was going for it?

I thought VL was always going for the Lexus, looks like Gordon might send over Outlander, why not since it'll be a fairly small field. Cue card, Thistlecrack, Josses hill, Conti & Tea For Two?

Shemale

Bet365 are 7/1 Thistlecrack to win King George and Gold Cup, you would need your head examined.

Gamebred

aidankkk wrote: »

11/8 is too short on what we know.

Cue Card is the best Staying chaser since Kauto Star and beat a superstar here last year. I really hope thistlecrak puts it up to him as it will be a great race.

Cue Card is still one of the most underrated horses around. Apart from last years Gold Cup, he has basically slaughtered everything in the top races. Apart from Vautour.

There will be better bets around and id prefer to watch it than win or loose my bollix on an 11/8 shot that should be about 7/2 at least.

Much will you lay me at 7/2 please?

abarkie

Gamebred wrote: »

Much will you lay me at 7/2 please?

I would lay it at 11/8 - made too many mistakes at Cheltenham and whatever happens, i will lay it in the Gold Cup

5/2 probably the right price - 7/2 too big

Shemale

Its going to be a great race, proper Grade One pace could be the making of his jumping, in some of his mistakes it's like he had too much time to think.

faoile@n

Gamebred wrote: »

Much will you lay me at 7/2 please?

Can you explain the logic behind someone laying 7/2 when he will be available to lay somewhere between 2.0 and 3.0 on the day :eek:

abarkie

faoile@n wrote: »

Can you explain the logic behind someone laying 7/2 when he will be available to lay somewhere between 2.0 and 3.0 on the day :eek:

He's obviously an arb shark looking for guaranteed profit!

Gamebred

faoile@n wrote: »

Can you explain the logic behind someone laying 7/2 when he will be available to lay somewhere between 2.0 and 3.0 on the day :eek:

Sure its the wrong price according to him so lay it for absolutely everything clean sweep If I see 7/2 about a horse 2/1 I punt it heavy same thing in reverse here, the reality is though talk is cheap I will bet 1.01 he doesnt lay it to lose a euro like 99% of the Thistlecrack deniers.

Gregk961

Gamebred wrote: »

Sure its the wrong price according to him so lay it for absolutely everything clean sweep If I see 7/2 about a horse 2/1 I punt it heavy same thing in reverse here, the reality is though talk is cheap I will bet 1.01 he doesnt lay it to lose a euro like 99% of the Thistlecrack deniers.

Its a nonsensical argument- If somebody can lay the horse at 2.5 or close to it why lay it at 7/2? Everybody is entitled to an opinion on a horses price like anything else. It doesn't require you to lay it at that price.

Personally, I see nothing wrong with the market the way it is. Going on what we've seen its a match race with Cue Card having a lot less to prove but Thistlecrack has unlimited potential.

Gamebred

Gregk961 wrote: »

Its a nonsensical argument- If somebody can lay the horse at 2.5 or close to it why lay it at 7/2? Everybody is entitled to an opinion on a horses price like anything else. It doesn't require you to lay it at that price.

Personally, I see nothing wrong with the market the way it is. Going on what we've seen its a match race with Cue Card having a lot less to prove but Thistlecrack has unlimited potential.

Its not strictly about the price I see a lot of people saying it has no chance yet wont back their opinion with their money,


The staying chase division is rubbish this year and we a horse with the best engine over 3m over hurdles jumping fences of course its going to be short,


Has a novice ever won the KG?

jimjamcos

Colin Tizzard singe-handedly putting life into the British jumps seen. What a man.

Shanee.

Gamebred wrote: »

Sure its the wrong price according to him so lay it for absolutely everything clean sweep If I see 7/2 about a horse 2/1 I punt it heavy same thing in reverse here, the reality is though talk is cheap I will bet 1.01 he doesnt lay it to lose a euro like 99% of the Thistlecrack deniers.

People who say a horse should be this price haven't a clue really. If the horse should be 7/2 then he would be 7/2 and the market reacts accordingly. Complete ****e talk, if Thistlecrack is beaten it looks like a great statement and if he wins of course didn't have a bet in the race. Nothing worse than ****e talk when it comes to gambling.

Peintre Celebre

7/2 Thistlecrack that he's a confirmed runner is so far off it's not funny. Probably the greatest each way bet you'd see all year if that occurred.

mdwexford

Shanee. wrote: »

People who say a horse should be this price haven't a clue really. If the horse should be 7/2 then he would be 7/2 and the market reacts accordingly. Complete ****e talk, if Thistlecrack is beaten it looks like a great statement and if he wins of course didn't have a bet in the race. Nothing worse than ****e talk when it comes to gambling.

Nonsense.

Professional gamblers make a living by picking out horses who are the wrong prices.

You think every horse is priced up perfectly every day when the market forms. Of course not.

mdwexford

The race has cut up as usual.

Tactics are going to be very interesting.

With the front two virtually the same price Cue Card is the obvious one to go with. Won the race last year, hasn't shown he's majorly in decline despite his advancing years.

Thistlecrack is priced up on his hurdles form, not on what he's done over fences.

Gamebred

mdwexford wrote: »

The race has cut up as usual.

Tactics are going to be very interesting.

With the front two virtually the same price Cue Card is the obvious one to go with. Won the race last year, hasn't shown he's majorly in decline despite his advancing years.

Thistlecrack is priced up on his hurdles form, not on what he's done over fences.

Very logical point, but sometime great horses defy logic I will be backing Thistlecrack dont think theres a horse with his engine over that trip, will need to be accurate but his jumping hasnt alarmed me.

mdwexford

Gamebred wrote: »

Very logical point, but sometime great horses defy logic I will be backing Thistlecrack dont think theres a horse with his engine over that trip, will need to be accurate but his jumping hasnt alarmed me.

I've been into racing since 2000 and very very rarely does a novice win open company grade one races.

Coneygree obviously won the gold cup and Beef or Salmon won the Ericsson and the Hennessy over here (before falling in the gold cup). After that I'm struggling to think of many others off hand.

Thistlecrack was a special horse over hurdles, he may well turn out to be a special chaser. Until he's done it though I'd always oppose as a default because most of the time, they don't live up to the hype.

Gamebred

mdwexford wrote: »

I've been into racing since 2000 and very very rarely does a novice win open company grade one races.

Coneygree obviously won the gold cup and Beef or Salmon won the Ericsson and the Hennessy over here (before falling in the gold cup). After that I'm struggling to think of many others off hand.

Thistlecrack was a special horse over hurdles, he may well turn out to be a special chaser. Until he's done it though I'd always oppose as a default because most of the time, they don't live up to the hype.

Has there been many like him though? cant think of many as good as him that went chasing as a novice and tried to win a KG, thank god the horse isnt in the Mullins yard or we might never see these questions answered it would be running around Limerick at 2/9 over X mas probably, although it could ruin the build up to the Gold cup imagine the pair of them went into it coming off wins Christmas has literally come early.

mdwexford

Gamebred wrote: »

Has there been many like him though? cant think of many as good as him that went chasing as a novice and tried to win a KG, thank god the horse isnt in the Mullins yard or we might never see these questions answered it would be running around Limerick at 2/9 over X mas probably, although it could ruin the build up to the Gold cup imagine the pair of them went into it coming off wins Christmas has literally come early.

Iris's Gift would be the most similar. Won the stayers hurdle beating Baracouda.

They pitched him straight into an open company grade 1 chase the next season and he got beaten. They went to novice races then but he ended up being a bitter disappointment over fences.

This has certainly made the KG unmissable viewing. If Thistlecrack was in the Feltham the KG would be a bit of a non event.

abarkie

mdwexford wrote: »

I've been into racing since 2000 and very very rarely does a novice win open company grade one races.

Coneygree obviously won the gold cup and Beef or Salmon won the Ericsson and the Hennessy over here (before falling in the gold cup). After that I'm struggling to think of many others off hand.

Thistlecrack was a special horse over hurdles, he may well turn out to be a special chaser. Until he's done it though I'd always oppose as a default because most of the time, they don't live up to the hype.

Gloria Victus - Pipe horse was a novice when winning Racing Post Chase, sadly fell in Gold Cup

WickIow Brave

I really don't get how Thistlecrack can be so short for both the King George and the Gold Cup. He's beat absolutely nothing. He won a disease of a World Hurdle. The two best horses he's beat are Alpha des Obeaux and Shaneshill, two 150 merchants. ADO couldn't beat Jennies Jewel next time out. He basically did what Unowhatimeanharry is doing this year. Can you imagine that thing favourite for the GC this time next year? TC has about a stone to find to beat Cue Card.

Gamebred

WickIow Brave wrote: »

I really don't get how Thistlecrack can be so short for both the King George and the Gold Cup. He's beat absolutely nothing. He won a disease of a World Hurdle. The two best horses he's beat are Alpha des Obeaux and Shaneshill, two 150 merchants. ADO couldn't beat Jennies Jewel next time out. He basically did what Unowhatimeanharry is doing this year. Can you imagine that thing favourite for the GC this time next year? TC has about a stone to find to beat Cue Card.

Your making out he just barely won all them races, he won in an absolute canter in every single race by half the track he's in a league of his own I dont think he has seen the whip in about 2 years.

Shanee.

mdwexford wrote: »

Shanee. wrote: »

People who say a horse should be this price haven't a clue really. If the horse should be 7/2 then he would be 7/2 and the market reacts accordingly. Complete ****e talk, if Thistlecrack is beaten it looks like a great statement and if he wins of course didn't have a bet in the race. Nothing worse than ****e talk when it comes to gambling.

Nonsense.

Professional gamblers make a living by picking out horses who are the wrong prices.

You think every horse is priced up perfectly every day when the market forms. Of course not.

I think you missed the point, I'm speaking about come the off time. Of course horses are priced up wrong in comparison to their actual chance of wining a race hence why gambles occur and market moves happen. My point being thistlecrack is not a 7/2 shot in any shape or form.

Johner

Not a betting race for me. Cue Card will be a tough nut to crack, he's been there and done it but it also wouldn't surprise me to see Thistlecrack annihilate him if his jumping stands the test.

Francie Barrett

Vroum Vroum Mag surely a nice e/w bet at 20/1 for the King George.

EICVD

Looks like possible Gigginstown plans for next week are Valseur Lido & Don Poli for the Lexus, Road To Riches the KG & Wounded Warrior Chepstow. Lexus now seems to the be preferred option for Outlander too after the Thistlecrack news.

Johner

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Vroum Vroum Mag surely a nice e/w bet at 20/1 for the King George.

Don't think there's any chance of her turning up in that.

kfallon

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Vroum Vroum Mag surely a nice e/w bet at 20/1 for the King George.

More chance of her turning up in the KG at Ascot tbh.....

akelly02

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Vroum Vroum Mag surely a nice e/w bet at 20/1 for the King George.

Vroum vroum runs in the xmas hurdle and wins

WickIow Brave

Gamebred wrote: »

Your making out he just barely won all them races, he won in an absolute canter in every single race by half the track he's in a league of his own I dont think he has seen the whip in about 2 years.

Cue Card has been winning just as easily. Over fences. Against Grade 1 winners over fences. Meanwhile Alpha des Obeaux and Shaneshill are getting soundly beat by Coney Island and Apple's Jade. It doesn't make any sense how they're nearly the same price for the King George.

Gamebred

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Cue Card has been winning just as easily. Over fences. Against Grade 1 winners over fences. Meanwhile Alpha des Obeaux and Shaneshill are getting soundly beat by Coney Island and Apple's Jade. It doesn't make any sense how they're nearly the same price for the King George.

How much are you having on Cue Card so?

longshotvalue

Gamebred wrote: »

How much are you having on Cue Card so?

No need to be having a bet to have an opinion.

longshotvalue

Feck it only 7 runners now. No EW betting

Pity as Road To Riches looks a lock for 3rd with the overrated donkyeys in the field

akelly02

I see jenkins is running monday aswell. Worth putting into accums or is he not the machine everyone says?

posturingpat

akelly02 wrote: »

I see jenkins is running monday aswell. Worth putting into accums or is he not the machine everyone says?

Granted he brushes up on his jumping he'll be very hard beat, i wanted to be a doubter but his engine after such a poor round of jumping seemed phenomenal.

Francie Barrett

Johner wrote: »

Don't think there's any chance of her turning up in that.

I was put off on the 50/1 that was available on Betfair so didn't bother having a bet. Good thing too as it's not running.

jimjamcos

Anyone wanna give me a price VVM never jumps a fence again?

An absolute cert in my book.

Johner

jimjamcos wrote: »

Anyone wanna give me a price VVM never jumps a fence again?

An absolute cert in my book.

Which would be a damn shame, she'd win the Ryanair anyway.

Gamebred

Shes declared in the Christmas hurdle.

Hulk Hands

Xmas hurdle is like a whos who of horses to avoid. VVM almost certain to be overbet and underpriced, needed a masterful ride to scrape home by a neck from identity theif over 2m, hard to see 2m at Kempton suiting. Ditto Yamworth, especially on decent ground. TNO surely finished at this level yet still covers MTOY who the race will surely suit perfectly but he cant win. Chitbello is very likeable but hard to see him being good enough and no each way angle.

Gamebred

VVM will hammer them things Yanworth is slow, TNO less said the better not a prayer, My pig or yours is a hound will be having a good bet on the mare getting weight of them yaks.

Custom Cut

I think people are underrating TNO's last performance, for years people have talked about how he's such a stayer at 2 miles, how he needs a more aggressive ride and then he finally gets one, shows improved form but people don't care for some reason. NTD said after the win that he used to always jump right when not covered up but they've sorted that now and he can now lead so I'd say he'll continue to be ridden that way. It's not like he ran a shocker in the champion hurdle either. I think VVM will win though, 2 miles looks her trip she's never found that much for pressure over longer trips but found plenty over 2 at Punchestown. Yanworth clearly needs to find improvement, I can oppose him easily.

Backstreet Moyes

posturingpat wrote: »

Granted he brushes up on his jumping he'll be very hard beat, i wanted to be a doubter but his engine after such a poor round of jumping seemed phenomenal.

Just noticed skybet are nrnb for the supreme could be worth backing now before Monday.

If his jumping is better I can see the bookies overreacting and shortening him a bit.

Gamebred

Custom Cut wrote: »

I think people are underrating TNO's last performance, for years people have talked about how he's such a stayer at 2 miles, how he needs a more aggressive ride and then he finally gets one, shows improved form but people don't care for some reason. NTD said after the win that he used to always jump right when not covered up but they've sorted that now and he can now lead so I'd say he'll continue to be ridden that way. It's not like he ran a shocker in the champion hurdle either. I think VVM will win though, 2 miles looks her trip she's never found that much for pressure over longer trips but found plenty over 2 at Punchestown. Yanworth clearly needs to find improvement, I can oppose him easily.

His last win he beat an old decrepit hound of a thing that hasnt won a race in years who is worse than ever it was a disease of a race has no chance next week.

EICVD

Custom Cut wrote: »

I think people are underrating TNO's last performance, for years people have talked about how he's such a stayer at 2 miles, how he needs a more aggressive ride and then he finally gets one, shows improved form but people don't care for some reason. NTD said after the win that he used to always jump right when not covered up but they've sorted that now and he can now lead so I'd say he'll continue to be ridden that way. It's not like he ran a shocker in the champion hurdle either. I think VVM will win though, 2 miles looks her trip she's never found that much for pressure over longer trips but found plenty over 2 at Punchestown. Yanworth clearly needs to find improvement, I can oppose him easily.

It was a desperate race though, does anyone even remember the other donkeys that completed the field that day? Mister Miyagi, Melodic Rendezvous & Court Minstrel?

Earendil

EICVD wrote: »

It was a desperate race though, does anyone even remember the other donkeys that completed the field that day? Mister Miyagi, Melodic Rendezvous & Court Minstrel?

Thought he was going to be smart. Dreadful disappointment this year.
Maybe a big handicap in him mind.

Custom Cut

EICVD wrote: »

It was a desperate race though, does anyone even remember the other donkeys that completed the field that day? Mister Miyagi, Melodic Rendezvous & Court Minstrel?

They're not great but he still thrashed them.

Gamebred wrote: »

His last win he beat an old decrepit hound of a thing that hasnt won a race in years who is worse than ever it was a disease of a race has no chance next week.

He still gave him 8 pounds and a similar beating to what Annie Power gave him in the Champion. He's only 8 it's not like he's too old to return to his best.