Norseman 2016

joey100

https://topptid.no/myreg/info/1224

That's the link that's hidden in the site. Last years info is up there but I'd say it might be the same link open later.

mossym

Kurt.Godel wrote: »

Its a great business model/charity fundraiser. For 2016 almost 3100 athletes wanted to race, and there were 236 "draw" slots (assume 3000 of these entered the draw, the rest were elite, sponsors, etc).

So in a regular year your chances of entry via the draw are 236/3000=7.9%
Using the same figures for the new system, entering each year:
Year 1: 1x236/3000=7.9%
Year 2: 2x236/3000=15.8%
Year 3: 3x236/3000=23.7%
Year 4: 4x236/3000=31.6%
Year 5: 5x236/3000=39.5%
Year 6: 6x236/3000=47.4%
Year 7: 7x236/3000=55.3%
...
Year 13: 13x236/3000=102.7%

So you have to wait 7 years before you have a better than 50/50 chance of getting a lottery entry (and have to pay the lottery fee each year). In the 13th year you are certain to get a lottery slot.

This assumes the same amount of people annually entering the draw- if this place is a snapshot, a lot more people will be entering specifically because of the new system. In which case we are back to lady luck.

not sure if you had your coffee when you made this post, but some of your reasoning is very suspect

Kurt.Godel

mossym wrote: »

not sure if you had your coffee when you made this post, but some of your reasoning is very suspect

Guilty! Just a bit of fun- some of the post was spot on;)

Its a great business model/charity fundraiser
...
a lot more people will be entering specifically because of the new system

mossym

Kurt.Godel wrote: »

Guilty! Just a bit of fun- some of the post was spot on;)

don't worry KG, in 2029 when someone enters the lottery for the 13th year and doesnt get in, and brings you to court, i'll be there to watch..:)

mossym

link for anyone interested

http://nxtri.com/race-info/the-draw/

joey100

Well I'm entered, at a stag next weekend in Liverpool when they will probably let people know. I'll be either drinking cos it will be the last time I will get to drink before the race or drinking to celebrate having 2 entries in 2018.

Kurt.Godel

mossym wrote: »

don't worry KG, in 2029 when someone enters the lottery for the 13th year and doesnt get in, and brings you to court, i'll be there to watch..:)

But the probability is over 100%!!!

Joking aside, its a pretty interesting model for oversubscribed races, especially "bucketlist" events. If you enter each year anyway, your chances improve year on year (assuming a binomial model). But this will ensure more people subscribe, making it harder to get into... I'd imagine one will almost cancel out the other. Its a win either way for their charities though!

Kurt.Godel

iAcesHigh wrote: »

This race is on a my bucket list, but I plan to do some other "normal" things beforehand I didn't actually know you have to go into lottery for it so let me just ask few fast ones:

1. You actually play lottery for more than one year?
2. What's the rough chance of getting it?
3. How much years in advance you can "play for"?
4. What's the price for getting into lottery?

Ok, lets try a proper answer to this. Literally back-of-envelope stuff, I've made some large assumptions regarding independence of trials, disclaimer, etc etc...

Assuming 3000 entrants in a lottery for 236 slots . This lottery can be modelled as a bag with 3,000 balls (one for each entrant). All balls are white except your red ball. In the first year 236 balls are pulled out one after another (call this 236 separate trials)- if your red ball is among them you get an entry. If not, two red balls are included amongst all the balls in Year two (and 3 red balls in year 3, etc.). For various reasons its easier to model this based on your possibility of not getting a slot
In year 1 the probability of pulling out a white ball in each independent trial is 2999/3000. Doing so for 236 independent trials is (2999/3000)^236. Therefore the probability of pulling out a red ball in year one is:
1 - (2999/3000)^236 = 0.0756

In year 2 the probability of pulling out a white ball in each independent trial is 2998/3000. Doing so for 236 independent trials is (2998/3000)^236. Therefore the probability of pulling out a red ball in year one is:
1 - (2998/3000)^236 = 0.1456

Year 3 is 1 - (2997/3000)^236 = 0.2103, etc.

You need to get to year 9 before you better a 50/50 chance:
Year 9 is 1 - (2991/3000)^236 = 0.5079

Odds are lowered dependent on numbers entering, so if (for instance) 4000 enter:
Year 1: 1 - (3999/4000)^236 = 0.0573
Year 2: 1 - (3998/4000)^236 = 0.1113
Year 3: 1 - (3997/4000)^236 = 0.1623
Year 4: 1 - (3996/4000)^236 = 0.2103
Year 9: 1 - (3991/4000)^236 = 0.4123

My figures are rushed so there may well be errors. Happy entering!

mossym

Kurt.Godel wrote: »

In year 1 the probability of pulling out a white ball in each independent trial is 2999/3000. Doing so for 236 independent trials is (2999/3000)^236. Therefore the probability of pulling out a red ball in year one is:
1 - (2999/3000)^236 = 0.0756

i expected better Kurt.
the first trial is 2999/3000
the second trial is 2998/2999.
the third trial is 2997/2998,

so it becomes 1-((2999/3000)*(2998/2999).....(2764/2765)*(2763/2764))

the trials are independent, but a winning ball is not replaced.

joey100

Nerds!!!!

mossym

joey100 wrote: »

Nerds!!!!

Joey joey joey,

Just remember,

Next time you're in a race, looking at a guy up the road, wondering if you can catch him.........


Kurt and I already have it figured out

Mr Tango

mossym wrote: »

i expected better Kurt.
the first trial is 2999/3000
the second trial is 2998/2999.
the third trial is 2997/2998,

so it becomes 1-((2999/3000)*(2998/2999).....(2764/2765)*(2763/2764))

the trials are independent, but a winning ball is not replaced.

Does the number of balls not grow bigger as everyone that didn't get in gets an extra red ball for themselves each year !!

Try the euro millions?

tunney

Kurt.Godel wrote: »

Ok, lets try a proper answer to this. Literally back-of-envelope stuff, I've made some large assumptions regarding independence of trials, disclaimer, etc etc...

Assuming 3000 entrants in a lottery for 236 slots . This lottery can be modelled as a bag with 3,000 balls (one for each entrant). All balls are white except your red ball. In the first year 236 balls are pulled out one after another (call this 236 separate trials)- if your red ball is among them you get an entry. If not, two red balls are included amongst all the balls in Year two (and 3 red balls in year 3, etc.). For various reasons its easier to model this based on your possibility of not getting a slot
In year 1 the probability of pulling out a white ball in each independent trial is 2999/3000. Doing so for 236 independent trials is (2999/3000)^236. Therefore the probability of pulling out a red ball in year one is:
1 - (2999/3000)^236 = 0.0756

In year 2 the probability of pulling out a white ball in each independent trial is 2998/3000. Doing so for 236 independent trials is (2998/3000)^236. Therefore the probability of pulling out a red ball in year one is:
1 - (2998/3000)^236 = 0.1456

Year 3 is 1 - (2997/3000)^236 = 0.2103, etc.

You need to get to year 9 before you better a 50/50 chance:
Year 9 is 1 - (2991/3000)^236 = 0.5079

Odds are lowered dependent on numbers entering, so if (for instance) 4000 enter:
Year 1: 1 - (3999/4000)^236 = 0.0573
Year 2: 1 - (3998/4000)^236 = 0.1113
Year 3: 1 - (3997/4000)^236 = 0.1623
Year 4: 1 - (3996/4000)^236 = 0.2103
Year 9: 1 - (3991/4000)^236 = 0.4123

My figures are rushed so there may well be errors. Happy entering!

Sort of like hunger games then

Kurt.Godel

tunney wrote: »

Sort of like hunger games then

"A starting slot at Isklar Norseman Xtreme Triathlon is strictly personal. It cannot be transferred, sold or given to another person"

Kurt.Godel

Well I entered...purely as a keen student of statistical modelling!

pgibbo

Kurt.Godel wrote: »

Well I entered...purely as a keen student of statistical modelling!

lol....be some craic if you got it

boysinblack

Kurt.Godel wrote: »

Its a great business model/charity fundraiser. For 2016 almost 3100 athletes wanted to race, and there were 236 "draw" slots (assume 3000 of these entered the draw, the rest were elite, sponsors, etc).

So in a regular year your chances of entry via the draw are 236/3000=7.9%
Using the same figures for the new system, entering each year:
Year 1: 1x236/3000=7.9%
Year 2: 2x236/3000=15.8%
Year 3: 3x236/3000=23.7%
Year 4: 4x236/3000=31.6%
Year 5: 5x236/3000=39.5%
Year 6: 6x236/3000=47.4%
Year 7: 7x236/3000=55.3%
...
Year 13: 13x236/3000=102.7%

So you have to wait 7 years before you have a better than 50/50 chance of getting a lottery entry (and have to pay the lottery fee each year). In the 13th year you are certain to get a lottery slot.

This assumes the same amount of people annually entering the draw- if this place is a snapshot, a lot more people will be entering specifically because of the new system. In which case we are back to lady luck.

There is only 200 males slots you may start over

Pmaldini

I've entered, hope ta fook I don't make it!! I've the hardman in august to sharpen me up for 2018😂

Kurt.Godel

They gave the figures for entry- 3650 have entered (up from previous years I think). There are 250 spots with 22 going to elites. Also I think a few sponsor and press entries, but lets discount them.

Therefore the probability of getting entry this year is:
1 - (3649/3650)^238 = 0.063

Its still wait and see for the acceptance emails... I bet quite a few here have fingers crossed they miss out this year!

mossym

Kurt.Godel wrote: »

Therefore the probability of getting entry this year is:
1 - (3649/3650)^238 = 0.063
!

no, it's really not...:)

Kurt.Godel

mossym wrote: »

no, it's really not...:)

Ha, basic math is always my downfall, it just never seems worth the effort!

1 - (3649/3650)^228 = 0.061

Kurt.Godel

According to their website, this new lottery system has raised over $30,000 for Doctors Without Borders. Thats a win for the charity no doubt, but essentially its monetised the lottery entry system for little if no benefit to the entrant. The increased overall numbers entering (in large part because of an expectation that early entry gives better chances for subsequent years) have offset any benefit.

Interesting entry model though- expect other oversubscibed races to take note (and the charity aspect disappear...).

Kurt.Godel

Well the email was sent, I didn't get in anyway... better luck next year!

mossym

That'd not what I meant Kurt, I still think your logic is wrong. But well spotted on your own mistake anyway

Got the no entry email as well. Not sure is I am disappointed or releived. Next year ...

Kurt.Godel

Both our systems agree in year 1, no? In any case its speculation after that, we don't know if an entry is weighted, or entered 3 times, or quite what system they use.

mossym wrote: »

Got the no entry email as well. Not sure is I am disappointed or releived. Next year ...

If they charge another €10 to enter next years draw (I suspect they will), I'm out, way too expensive!