FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Doctor Shivering

Interesting goings on in the non reliable t144 to t240 stretch this evening with all nwp's building heights up where you'd want a high latitude block to develop

Not implausible given in the reliable the area is being fed by for there warmer than usual air exiting our latitudes and lower (chased by that easterly and followed by our African blast of next week)

Notice how this plays out in the ECM 240 attached
That low exiting the states is up about 20Mb on the 00Z and is still in the states as opposed to Greenland
Now it can only go wsw and either build again heading for Spain or die out in my opinion
But importantly it leaves scope for hlb heights to continue rising

Say what you like about the ECM,it's 240 rarely verifies(does any?) but it's super good at signals at that range

So a last hurrah ahead or a very cold spring (hlb's do have a habit once formed of hanging around a while) or both lets see

nacho libre

Doctor Shivering wrote: »

Say what you like about the ECM,it's 240 rarely verifies(does any?) but it's super good at signals at that range

So a last hurrah ahead or a very cold spring (hlb's do have a habit once formed of hanging around a while) or both lets see

well the cfs model, as i mentioned before, has been consistently showing a blocked end to winter and into spring. The ECM was the one model that signaled this odd evolution for next week, when the other models were showing we would stay cold, so hopefully it is right with this signal.

Meteorite58

Looking through the models it would appear to me that after the cold weekend and windy Monday into Tuesday temps start to increase with winds sourced mainly from a long southerly fetch thereafter. Small bit breezy perhaps in the S of the country and along coasts for a few days into the week but with Hp building and moving closer to Ireland looks to become increasingly quite into the early part of next weekend . Temps set to remain relatively mild I would think , both surface and uppers. Maybe a bit cooler later next week end but signs of turning back to the Atlantic around Mon the 20th .

Iancar29

Nabber

I have a feeling that GFS is going to throw up something nice for the +240 region. No basis for this. Just a tingle in the belly that's all.
I'll Edit this post when the the 18z is done

This is all she could do

Nabber

I just went out Cherry picked one to cheer myself up

nacho libre

Something a bit cooler from the ECM tonight.
At odds with the other models, which have us in springtime conditions at the same time

Rebelbrowser

nacho libre wrote: »

Something a bit cooler from the ECM tonight.
At odds with the other models, which have us in springtime conditions at the same time

Gfs 18z still rolling out looks a bit more interesting too. Cant post pictures Im afraid.

Meteorite58

Weds and Thurs looking like a couple of windy days next week , more so Thurs looking the windier day at this stage with possible gales.



ECMWF 850Hpa wind

Meteorite58

Thurs and Fri next week still showing cold 850 hPa Temperatures. Maybe possible for some wintry showers once the Lp system goes through bringing down some cooler NW / N'ly winds although looks brief at best. GFS 2m temps dont look particularly cold at this stage. Maybe some convective activity, anything !

Meteorite58

That could be a named Storm event next Thurs. Latest runs by the GFS and ECMWF showing it much closer to Ireland and at the moment has it deepening as it runs down the East coast of England and is showing some of the stronger winds funneling down the Irish sea. The GEM not going for it at all.



ECMWF 850hPa winds

Nabber

384 GFS


The ones for fun

Rebelbrowser

Nabber wrote: »

384 GFS

Is it premature to open a thread?

nagdefy

Nabber wrote: »

384 GFS

That would be typical! I remember in 2013 the amount of times we said if this setup came in January!

Meteorite58

Good looking charts for early March for wintry stuff.

Meteorite58

Jet showing signs of blocking over Europe in early March

V_Moth

West coast of Ireland getting some nice snowfall in a week's time (maybe).

Tazio

First Fri/Sat in March could be a bit blowy for the South this time around... interesting to see how this plays out.

Meteorite58

Looks like an active Atlantic regime over the next couple of weeks with the potential for plenty of depressions coming close to the country.

nacho libre

No sign of spring warmth on this chart.

Comhrá

March 3rd. 20.00hrs.

Meteorite58

Wintry conditions around St. Patrick's weekend perhaps, long way off but early indications of being very cold.

nacho libre

A proper Arctic outbreak.
So frustrating if this comes off. Why oh why could this not have happened in January.

Snowbiee21

nacho libre wrote: »

A proper Arctic outbreak.
So frustrating if this comes off. Why oh why could this not have happened in January.

What is this bringing ?

pad199207

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

What is this bringing ?

Tears and misery

pedigree 6

Should there not be a Spring/Summer 2017 (T120+ onwards) thread now?

Anyway this is just barely on the T120 timeframe.

I'd bank this chart in a heartbeat.:):p

Gaoth Laidir

Not much chance of that northerly outbreak affecting us this far west but there is another potent easterly showing up for the following weekend...

Meteorite58

Mod Note : Have opened a FI Spring / Summer Thread, will close this one so as not to cause confusion. Thanks.