FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

cold doesn't look to stay around for long, maybe 2 days tops.

ArKl0w

https://twitter.com/gavinpartridge/status/797158873476038656

pedigree 6

Just for sport, a few pixels on the Dublin/Wicklow mountains on the 20th nov.


http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/view/globaldata.html#GFSS

I only highlighted Britain and Ireland for a screen grab forecast snowcover in the pic.
But you can play around in the link for forecasts.

KingdomRushed

I noticed this morning potential for colder weather near month's end is increasing. The GFS has developed a theme for a notherly/northeasterly outbreak following this weekend's northwesterly sourced and somewhat stormy conditions. The ECM is different but not a hundred miles away.

What's notable so far this November, is that in contrast to previous years, if you look at the entire Northern Hemisphere profile on the model charts, that there is no consistent sign of the super-cold airflow establishing over Canada, Labrador which has resulted in the stormy atlantic we have become used to. Looking at today's charts I would say we would see some more frosts from the end of this week, and hill snow in the north.
Certainly some promise in the game for those of us who yearn for a seasonal cold-snap in the run up to Christmas.

ArKl0w

Yeah the downflow seems to be on the eastern side of the pole this year which means if we do get a Scandinavian high,there will be lots of deep cold pools for advection westward
So 2 options well and truly open this year
North east and east should highs orientate near Iceland or Scandinavia

Realistically it's going to be into December though before we see this start to pan out if it does

Elmer Blooker

Gonzo wrote: »

usually the cold is always 10 days away and this 10 days away is usually chased for 3 months till we end up in mid March!

ALWAYS 10 days away ...... well 11 to be exact in this case!

ArKl0w

Meanwhile in Bulgaria ,one of our inevitable sources eventually ,its -7c (albeit on a mountain)

https://twitter.com/schafernaker/status/798516366479392768

icesnowfrost

That Low pulls in a nice northerly next week.

naughto

Is this what mt was on about for the end of November

Elmer Blooker

Ten days away and the perfect "Gonzo"
Look at that northern blocking! Too good to be true?

ArKl0w

Nah That's a perfect ArKl0w northeasterly

In the above Gonzo would be in the Isle of Man shadow
A perfect Gonzo is an easterly;)

Although to be honest,the snowstorms would be so big in the above,we'd all be so buried,you could probably walk to the Isle of Man

Gonzo

ArKl0w wrote: »

Nah That's a perfect ArKl0w northeasterly

In the above Gonzo would be in the Isle of Man shadow
A perfect Gonzo is an easterly;)

Although to be honest,the snowstorms would be so big in the above,we'd all be so buried,you could probably walk to the Isle of Man

Ive goten kicked in the teeth so many times by that Isle of Man shadow.

As a kid in the 80s I used to go mad seeing no snow here and 10 minutes away there could be a foot of it. Over 20 years later I realized it was the Isle of Man spoiling my fun the whole time.

The Uk dont know who lucky they have it, any easterly or northerly there is unbroken, huge sea tracks and no shadows.

ArKl0w

Aye,but huge areas of the UK get nothing in an Easterly or northeasterly too

I can smell snow this winter though with the way things are going up north and after a couple of near misses in the coming weeks,we'll get there eventually I'd say

pauldry

Gonzo wrote: »

Ive goten kicked in the teeth so many times by that Isle of Man shadow.

As a kid in the 80s I used to go mad seeing no snow here and 10 minutes away there could be a foot of it. Over 20 years later I realized it was the Isle of Man spoiling my fun the whole time.

The Uk dont know who lucky they have it, any easterly or northerly there is unbroken, huge sea tracks and no shadows.

In sligo a northerly doesnt even bring much snow sometimes due to the Ben Bulben shadow

Captain Snow

A nice FI chart. All that cold just waiting to exploded towards us. LOL

I think we have a really good chance this winter of some good snowfall.

Like 2010 2011 winter.

icesnowfrost

Can anybody tell me where I can find this live snow radar. I don't no what it's called.
Thanks

hatrickpatrick

I'm seeing a lot more high pressure trying to push its way up through the Atlantic than in any recent year, even if at the moment the polar vortex is strong enough to keep sweeping it aside. In the last 2-3 years, I don't recall seeing it even "try" to expand northwards beyond one or two small blips. Seems like a good sign if we're hoping for some Atlantic blocking later on in the year.

I also don't understand the technical details behind SSWs except that they can fracture the polar vortex favourably for us, but the folks over on Netweather who are monitoring the stratosphere and its effect on the PV seem far more cheery and optimistic this year than in any previous year. I mean there's always a lot of ramping, but it's generally not backed up by the "sciencey" types on these forums. This year I seem to be noticing more consensus among those science folks that there is potential for fireworks in this particular winter.

RazorT

Netweather Snow Radar App can be found on the Google play store.

pedigree 6

:D

pedigree 6

Big difference with the 06z gfs compared to the previous chart.
I think it's that time when you pick your favourite chart.:p
Especially when it's so far off.

hatrickpatrick

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Big difference with the 06z gfs compared to the previous chart.
I think it's that time when you pick your favourite chart.:p
Especially when it's so far off.

A decent level of hypocrisy is essential for winter FI. If it's good, how unreliable can FI be, anyway? If it's sh!te, well sure it's just FI, I mean FI is always way off

icesnowfrost

Well if that is not eye candy I don't know what is 🌨❄️️😀

Gonzo

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Well if that is not eye candy I don't know what is ��❄️️��

Wouldn't produce much snow for eastern areas unless there is an organised band of snow but it would be very cold indeed. A full 2 weeks away so it could change 100 times between now and then.

icesnowfrost

Ya gotta love them charts the way they tease like that. I don't think it was anything like that in the last run. Pity it's not 96hrs out, then it would be squeaky bum time lol

hotwhiskey

ArKl0w

There's nothing in the last 2 weeks creeping out of FI into the present intact
I have to infer from that,that there's a cold often wet few weeks coming up with no real exciting period,just repeats of what we've had in the last week i.e. The odd bit of three rock hill snow in the mix
Colder than last year,just not enough

Gonzo

looks very uneventful now, maybe a brief 24 hour northerly on the 4th/5th December then back to mild.

hotwhiskey

Gonzo wrote: »

looks very uneventful now, maybe a brief 24 hour northerly on the 4th/5th December then back to mild.

Don't get to down-hearted.
Expect model volatility due to challenges predicting weak polar vortex the signs a very good at the moment for cold lovers. The models will change as quick has traffic lights from run to run until the get to grips to whats happening over the pole. Its only 22 Nov. 9 more days to go intil winter starts.;)

Gonzo

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Don't get to down-hearted.
Expect model volatility due to challenges predicting weak polar vortex the signs a very good at the moment for cold lovers. The models will change as quick has traffic lights from run to run until the get to grips to whats happening over the pole. Its only 22 Nov. 9 more days to go intil winter starts.;)

not downhearted at all! that doesn't start till straw clutching season next February!.

arctictree

12z GFS has swung back to cold weather in FI: