FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

icesnowfrost

Well the latest run is horrible but I still think the cold will break through from the east next weekend or soon after. The next few runs will be interesting. Why do we do this to our selfs

Donegal Storm

More consistency now for the first week of January with high pressure to rule throughout, the LP in the Azores seems to be the main variable but nothing too interesting in the short term for us either way. No real trend beyond that so pointless speculating

nacho libre

On the latest runs the northern arm of the jet stream look to ruin the chances of a second cold spell developing. It forces the high to sit over us rather than retrogress. It really has been the fly in the ointment thus far this winter.
I think i will just buy a snow machine at this stage:D
Still the winter of 1947 did not really begin till the 20th of January. Maybe in a week from now there will be a massive scandi high about to develop which will pave the way for the siberan snow train to head this way.

pedigree 6

The 12z GFS has us back on the Atlantic storm train in FI.

I think we may get rid of the gfs. It sure does love it's storms.

Either that or move to Greece for a bit of snow.:pac:

ninebeanrows

Not a very pretty picture tonight, perhaps we should enjoy the next 24 hours, cold front passage and risk of some sleet/hail showers

ArKl0w

Gfs is back to bitter cold nonsense in FI again with -11 850 air over Ireland from the north east and plenty snow trains
See attached

The ECM has the atlantic in charge next weekend
That's the form horse
I notice Harlem Lautz (apologies for the spelling) with German common sense and efficiency on the radio this morning,Used the words 'it looks like' referring to the rain towards the weekend
That's a better phrasing on what could change

Meanwhile have a look at the eye candy I suppose
There are walk in freezers available in various stores around the country if you want to take it further...

Meteorite58

Looking at the next couple of weeks into FI territory can see no clear patterns but it would seem that HP's are more dominant ( certainly disruptive to the Zonal type weather we saw last year at this time). GFS looks tasty all right around the 14 - 15th but way too early to believe in it. The Jet seems to keep in a Northerly track above Ireland until around the 10th and then plunges South possibly opening the door and letting that polar grip over Ireland and bringing down cooler PM air for a few days thereafter perhaps ?

PukkaStukka

ArKl0w wrote: »

Gfs is back to bitter cold nonsense in FI again with -11 850 air over Ireland from the north east and plenty snow trains
See attached

The ECM has the atlantic in charge next weekend
That's the form horse
I notice Harlem Lautz (apologies for the spelling) with German common sense and efficiency on the radio this morning,Used the words 'it looks like' referring to the rain towards the weekend
That's a better phrasing on what could change

Meanwhile have a look at the eye candy I suppose
There are walk in freezers available in various stores around the country if you want to take it further...

AFAIK Harm Luijkx is Dutch. He is married to Joanna Donnelly. Both of them cone across as massively laid back, which is a big plus in my book!

sryanbruen

The models really have been ridiculous. The NAO and AO are trending negative which would normally bring some quite cold weather but the models are not showing cold weather to be taking place. And the QBO is very unique with no year since the early 20th century having a similar QBO. The temperatures over the North Pole are very cold but then how is the AO trending negative?

ArKl0w

True Syran ( you're posting :eek: )
But leaving aside the near certainty of next weekends outlook now,I'd say I speak for most here if I said model watching is always exciting in winter when there's some snowmageddon in FI
It ensures the interest to see where it goes

Nabber

945 on the GFS FI

sryanbruen

Nabber wrote: »

945 on the GFS FI

Ah for crying out loud :mad::cool:

icesnowfrost

Is it even worth believing the GFS anymore such a heartbreaker but this looks nice way into FI

ArKl0w

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Is it even worth believing the GFS anymore such a heartbreaker but this looks nice way into FI

Not worth the paper they're wrote on
Probably will come around Easter which is too late but the most common form horse

Comhrá

ArKl0w wrote: »

Not worth the paper they're wrote on
Probably will come around Easter which is too late but the most common form horse

They'd make nice desktop wallpapers though, thinking of using one for my laptop.

Gonzo

ArKl0w wrote: »

Not worth the paper they're wrote on
Probably will come around Easter which is too late but the most common form horse

Unfortunately that's so true. 2013 was a perfect example. The amount of times that year we had overnight snows, woke up to winter scenes every morning but by noon it was melted each day.

Nabber

What the models are showing is better than our usual winter. Way too much doom and gloom in the FI thread. I don't comment much on the chat, but it be nice to keep the FI for charts.

It's called FI for a reason :pac:. No real need for people to dismiss the charts.



We are not that far away from a Scandi high

UKMO


GFS


ECMF


It doesn't take much change in the Jet to give us something favorable.
Bit of weaking over green land or a slight push further north. Got to keep dreaming



+384

nacho libre

Part of the problem at times this winter has been a split jet, with the northern arm just too strong. I am starting to think we need an SSW event to get us out of the current rut. I admire your optimism, but it's doing my head in to see the constant teaser charts from GFS that seemingly always are at day 10, then when day 10 comes, the cold plunges down into south east europe. I suppose i should know better at this stage than to let it bother me.

sryanbruen

The trend of the NAO and AO have been fixed now to positive territory up to mid-month but not extremely positive like the Christmas period of December, so don't expect any stormy conditions anytime soon. Thank god they have as they brainwashed my brain with how they were trending negative yet the stratospheric temperatures over the North Pole were very cold. But as expected, they are again trending negative from mid-month on..... I'm really not getting my hopes up. The most I'm expecting is neutral conditions.

Though I don't like using the CFS v2 as I find it the most ridiculous model, I just thought it'd be worth a mention here. The CFS v2 is showing the same conditions it predicted back in December with northern and mid-atlantic blocking with a trough to the east of us. Temperatures are trending below average for January in virtually the whole of Europe except Greenland and Iceland. Scandinavia has some warm and cold temperatures though. I do not believe in this at all.

The BCC shows a ridge in the mid-atlantic but stretching out to the eastern seaboard of the USA with a trough over us. Temperatures are rather above average but nothing spectacular. This is a much more believable scenario if you ask me.

But I do not trust each other as I'm expecting a very quiet month with some potential cold days but cold days like those in December (the odd frost here and there). Sometimes rain will come like Friday coming but it will mostly be very quiet with little rain again for the fourth month in a row (October, November, December and January). This goes against my prediction I set back in early December for a very cold, rather wet and sunny January but I am just not seeing my original prediction to be coming true at all (apart from the sunshine).

I find it funny how they all said for the coldest part of the Winter to be December but at this stage, could February be the coldest part of the Winter and that they were totally off :P?

ArKl0w

ECM tonight completely different to output from the past week
I do not like it but I can see why UK coldies may gather hope from it,I'll comment on that last

As early as 168,it has a storm coming down from the northwest and our current high migrating back into a mid Atlantic block
It's a wierd set up,not cold enough for snow and delivers no High building WAA towards Iceland/Greenland
Crucially the low scuppers heights building properly over Scandinavia either
So we're still heading into an impasse/benignity,just a different kind of one

We also have signs of a high pushing out of Russia to further rain Quite literally on the snow parade
It's the third factor

1.mid Atlantic blocking (disrupting height building up north)
2.Northern arm of the jet active blowing lows and cold rain over the top of the MLB (mid latitude block aka our mid Atlantic high pressure)
3. Siberian/Russian block appears whose impact will be to stall the jet stream and its lows (from factor 1 above) just to the north or over us ie a potential cold rain/showers neverendum (though the East Midlands of the UK may at times filter in enough continental cold to have some frontal snow at times)

Hence in short the outlook for the next 2 or three weeks is bland for Ireland
But I hear there's model uncertainty (posh word is entropy) and given the stark change in output tonight versus last night ecm wise,maybe just maybe there'll be something new again tomorrow

Ecm attached

ArKl0w

12ZGFS day 8 looks interesting
Our MLB is there but now there's a 1050mb Greenland high being fed WAA up the left hand side of the mid Atlantic high
The storm to the North is there which if it heads into the North Sea by day 10 we have a set up for a long polar fetch north or north easterly behind it

Already FI but pleasant nonetheless being mid FI not far FI

I'll come back tomorrow unless there's something new of note in the ECM

nacho libre

Another GFS tease at day 8, which could easily be scuppered by the northern jet , it has led us up the garden path before only for the other models to say no. If the UKMO and ECM start trending the same way then it might be worth taking note of.

icesnowfrost

Looking great from the 12th. Is it to be lol probably not but if it all comes together it will be class

q85dw7osi4lebg

Apart from statistics, theres any chance in the world the above could be pulled off. Stay positive !

icesnowfrost

Elliot Dead Thundershower wrote: »

Apart from statistics, theres any chance in the world the above could be pulled off. Stay positive !

Every chance but if them charts was 4-5 days away I'd be getting very excited. The gfs has been a tease so far this winter. It's struggling to deal with cold weather.

ArKl0w

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Looking great from the 12th. Is it to be lol probably not but if it all comes together it will be class

Those would still be high ground events only even if they verified
There's no surface cold to feed on,-6's and 7's over the Irish Sea wouldn't be enough
Mt actually has a great way of putting it
He says often about cold or heat that something might happen 'in stages'

There'll need to be a few attempts to get this right and we have 6 to 8 weeks so plenty of time if you get me?

cherryghost

I'll raise my hopes if the charts stay more or less in-tact by the end of the week. Then again the following weekend. And again... and again... and again... and oh man its spring time

ninebeanrows

There are good signals for cold in the second half of January. Let's hope it can deliver

ArKl0w

Weathercheck wrote: »

There are good signals for cold in the second half of January. Let's hope it can deliver

I wouldn't go buying shares in it!

mickger844posts

We've been here before lads. If these charts show at 72 hrs ill take notice. Models have been performing very poorly this Winter so far.

ninebeanrows

ArKl0w wrote: »

I wouldn't go buying shares in it!

I have invested heavily in Irish home heating oil for delivery on Feb 1st :pac:

Gonzo

mickger844posts wrote: »

We've been here before lads. If these charts show at 72 hrs ill take notice. Models have been performing very poorly this Winter so far.

we've seen stuff go pear shaped even within 48 hours in the past! We get a decent snowfall once, maybe twice per decade, its easy not to be positive when we live in a country such as this with such a pathetic record for lying snow.

Yourself isit

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Looking great from the 12th. Is it to be lol probably not but if it all comes together it will be class

Very interesting if very unlikely.

Iancar29

Could we please keep the thread on topic? - Which is FI model output not one liners.

GFS flirting us with a nice ridge of high pressure setting us up for a nice brief but strong northerly in FI.




ECM very similar.


GEM doesn't give have the ridge pushing north as much as the others. Therefore doesn't pull down a strong northerly.


UKMO @ 144hrs Similar to ECM

ninebeanrows

Strong indications for cold spell commencing late next week. Intensity and longevity of cold spell uncertain but what is now very likely is a period of below average temperatures and a heightened risk of wintry precip

mickger844posts

Nice to have the big three on board but over a week away so still loads of time for downgrades. Interesting to see if this outcome is still on the cards when the models roll out early next week. The last snow we got here in Waterford was March 2013 from a similar NW flow set up so anything is possible. In fact we had about 7cm on the 11th and a few showers on the 27th.

sumtings

Iancar29 wrote: »

Could we please keep the thread on topic? - Which is FI model output not one liners.

GFS flirting us with a nice ridge of high pressure setting us up for a nice brief but strong northerly in FI.




ECM very similar.


GEM doesn't give have the ridge pushing north as much as the others. Therefore doesn't pull down a strong northerly.


UKMO @ 144hrs Similar to ECM

Hi,

the ECM is the GFS above,

mickger844posts

Very encouraging 12z runs from The GFS and ECM. Still all in FI but we have to start someplace. If we see the current output by the end of the week reasons to buy a ticket for the roller coaster I think. At least some hope there any way.

Rebelbrowser

mickger844posts wrote: »

Very encouraging 12z runs from The GFS and ECM. Still all in FI but we have to start someplace. If we see the current output by the end of the week reasons to buy a ticket for the roller coaster I think. At least some hope there any way.

The 18z gfs is better again actually and suggests after the northern toppler there will be a more easterly component. All in fi but sure we can dream.... nothing spectacular in terms of uppers but -8s off and on for the best part of a week.

ArKl0w

-8's are just about enough for north easterlies to make things interesting unlike similar uppers off a more modifying Atlantic

ArKl0w

Interesting 12Z ECM
Some almost very cold enough-9c 850 air into Ulster by Thursday which should bring snow inland at low levels

Looking at the whole NH profile,I'm half expecting a severe cold outbreak from the east in the next few weeks,it's inevitable in my opinion,it was snowing in Amsterdam this morning ,the type of deep cold in eastern and now Central Europe is very hard to dislodge,and will want to visit as is likely when an easterly eventually gets going,lets see?

nacho libre

Well the UKMO were talking about a low risk of an Easterly in recent days towards the last week of January, but now all mention of that is gone. Perhaps this will be one of the rare times, that its included again in their outlook in coming days. It seems we are locked into a pattern which shields us from
the very cold airmass plunging down into much of Europe
I don't foresee an easterly happening without a ssw event, which forces the polar vortex to be displaced well away from its usual spot.

ArKl0w

nacho libre wrote: »

Well the UKMO were talking about a low risk of an Easterly in recent days towards the last week of January, but now all mention of that is gone. Perhaps this will be one of the rare times, that its included again in their outlook in coming days. It seems we are locked into a pattern which shields us from
the very cold airmass plunging down into much of Europe
I don't foresee an easterly happening without a ssw event, which forces the polar vortex to be displaced well away from its usual spot.

To be honest,the UKMO were winging it in December and winged it wrong
An easterly or a northeasterly can happen in many ways,it doesn't need the strat warming,Feb 91 being an example of one with a lot less cold out east than now
I also think models are varying on a theme a lot in the past week or two with one commonality,none of them veer too far from allowing a cold outbreak if you follow my thinking?

Easterly Beasterly

ArKl0w wrote: »

To be honest,the UKMO were winging it in December and winged it wrong
An easterly or a northeasterly can happen in many ways,it doesn't need the strat warming,Feb 91 being an example of one with a lot less cold out east than now
I also think models are varying on a theme a lot in the past week or two with one commonality,none of them veer too far from allowing a cold outbreak if you follow my thinking?

I Love your thinking Arklow...The models all seem to lead to cold but have been swinging wildly so I guess nobody believes any outcome they throw out. Am I right thinking that the Northerly next week looks quite potent with the potential of low pressure systems moving North to South dragging cold air?

nacho libre

ArKl0w wrote: »

To be honest,the UKMO were winging it in December and winged it wrong
An easterly or a northeasterly can happen in many ways,it doesn't need the strat warming,Feb 91 being an example of one with a lot less cold out east than now
I also think models are varying on a theme a lot in the past week or two with one commonality,none of them veer too far from allowing a cold outbreak if you follow my thinking?

I know it can happen without a strat warming, but it just seems to me we are locked into a pattern we can't get out of without a warming to deliver what we want. All the models have at various stages
teased a cold out break over the last month.
If they are all in sync about a cold outbreak from the east at three days out, then it might be time to get excited. Although as Stuart Rampling( the netweather forecaster) found out a few years ago it can all go pear shaped even at that timescale.

ArKl0w

Talk of polar lows is premature,those develop quickly and a few pockets of -9 air are still border line in polar maritime air
I'm not terrible excited down here about a northerly or north westerly but snow showers will happen in the favoured places,sometimes Dublin

What I'm more interested in now is how many efforts we have to endure before the real thing comes as it surely will because that cold to the east isn't going to fade soon and we have the time on our side for an easterly to pop up if you get what I'm thinking?

Gonzo

ArKl0w wrote: »

Talk of polar lows is premature,those develop quickly and a few pockets of -9 air are still border line in polar maritime air
I'm not terrible excited down here about a northerly or north westerly but snow showers will happen in the favoured places,sometimes Dublin

What I'm more interested in now is how many efforts we have to endure before the real thing comes as it surely will because that cold to the east isn't going to fade soon and we have the time on our side for an easterly to pop up if you get what I'm thinking?

let's be honest, the only thing most of us care about is an easterly, anything westerly or northerly related results in a non event for most of the population. I'm not having a go at the people in the west, it's just they get westerly snow almost every winter, we get easterly snow maybe once every 5-10 years. After 6 years of nothing more than isolated dandruff or 10 minutes of wet sleet from the west, it's time we get a few days of fun from the east, we are overly due it at this stage!. Anything from March onwards doesnt count, we have a 6-7 week window left at best.

nacho libre

Nice chart- direct feed - although it will likely not be quite like that on the day, if it was, although it likely won't be, a nice surprise could pop up in the flow

pedigree 6

Gonzo wrote: »

let's be honest, the only thing most of us care about is an easterly, anything westerly or northerly related results in a non event for most of the population. I'm not having a go at the people in the west, it's just they get westerly snow almost every winter, we get easterly snow maybe once every 5-10 years. After 6 years of nothing more than isolated dandruff or 10 minutes of wet sleet from the west, it's time we get a few days of fun from the east, we are overly due it at this stage!. Anything from March onwards doesnt count, we have a 6-7 week window left at best.

Who are ya telling??

The weather gods?:p

Donegal Storm

nacho libre wrote: »

Nice chart- direct feed - although it will likely not be quite like that on the day, if it was, although it likely won't be, a nice surprise could pop up in the flow

A direct feed at that moment in time but the upper flow is still zonal so more a standard polar maritime nw'erly than northerly. Not something I'm getting excited about, 850hpa temps are usually a degree or two higher once the day arrives so -6C to -8C at best which typically delivers hail and sleet showers with brief hill snow.

The next blast on the 14th and the resulting easterly depends on a wave that doesn't even exist yet so no point looking too closely at that yet