FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

munsterlegend

Weathercheck wrote: »

Widespread inland gusts reaching 60-70mph on latest run.

Gusts along Atlantic coasts 80mph+

Don't these storms usually head a bit further north east? Will be interesting to watch

ninebeanrows

In some instanced they do take a jog further north in reality as they will often be deeper than the low resolution models would indicate and thus take a further northerly track.

However, it's far too early to speculate on this system yet. Other than to be aware of the risk.

ninebeanrows

Happy Christmas

Meteorite58

One to watch for sure, early days though.

Villain

At least GFS brings it forward with worst while people sleep Christmas Eve

ninebeanrows

GFS Op has powerful Christmas Day storm..

nagdefy

Weathercheck wrote: »

GFS Op has powerful Christmas Day storm..

That would be very bad, nationally too. We're in for a weak of model watching.

I mean weather model watching

sunbeam

Looking a bit gusty here in Achill for Christmas lunch time :eek:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2016121812/168-289UK.GIF?18-12

Average winds speeds in excess of 120km/h forecast for here.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2016121812/168-602UK.GIF?18-12

Really hope this gets downgraded...

ninebeanrows

EC Operational says NO storm.

Does not phase the low development with the jet.

Meteorite58

The GEM and EC say no storm, the GFS says yes. I think with a very mobile Jet, deep plunges of PM cold air and warm air being drawn in to the mix is creating a very volatile flow with a few twists and turns to go. I've seen some wild swings in the runs the last few days but the general theme I think is for deep lows passing close to our shores with quick changing temperatures from mild to cold in a matter of hours with some wintry weather at times. We could be seeing very contrasting temps across the country at times.

nagdefy

Which would generally be more accurate in predicting wind storms, ECM GEM, GFS?

I presume it's 50/50?

munsterlegend

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The GEM and EC say no storm, the GFS says yes. I think with a very mobile Jet, deep plunges of PM cold air and warm air being drawn in to the mix is creating a very volatile flow with a few twists and turns to go. I've seen some wild swings in the runs the last few days but the general theme I think is for deep lows passing close to our shores with quick changing temperatures from mild to cold in a matter of hours with some wintry weather at times. We could be seeing very contrasting temps across the country at times.

It will be interesting anyway compared to the very bland conditions of the last few weeks.

Iancar29

With the ECMWF and GEM not evolving the deep lows ,

lets have a look at a few of the... interesting /

scary

runs by the GEFS.





(not effecting Ireland as much but yeah... :eek:


But most of all....

nacho libre

nagdefy wrote: »

Which would generally be more accurate in predicting wind storms, ECM GEM, GFS?

I presume it's 50/50?

The GFS tends to over exaggerate the strength of storms, then back pedals closer to the time.

Chris_5339762

Iancar29 wrote: »

With the ECMWF and GEM not evolving the deep lows ,

lets have a look at a few of the... interesting /

scary

runs by the GEFS.


(not effecting Ireland as much but yeah... :eek:

But most of all....

Look horrible, all of them. But they're not the craziest...

This one from 2013 is still the most ludicrous.

JanuarySnowstor

Well if the 18z were to be right hurricane force winds would strike on Christmas day.
It's the gfs v ecm, hard to tell where this is going

sunbeam

If the GFS 18z is right I'll be lucky to have a roof on Stephen's Day.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2016121818/162-289UK.GIF?18-18

hotwhiskey

Yes the GFS is not backing down. This storm has been showen up on the GFS also on ECM on the 14th but has now leaned away from, We are looking at hurricane force winds here for much of the country. If the GFS is right this is very alarming devolopment indeed. But it is seven days away and it is the only model showen this really intence storm on Christmas day.

mickger844posts

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well if the 18z were to be right hurricane force winds would strike on Christmas day.
It's the gfs v ecm, hard to tell where this is going

GFS well and truly sticking to its guns. We all love a good weather event but if this actually happened as modeled we would be looking at an horrendous day.
Overall the run is stormy to say the least. Very interesting to see what the ECM comes up with overnight.
Historically are we due another "Night of the Big Wind"

pedigree 6

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well if the 18z were to be right hurricane force winds would strike on Christmas day.
It's the gfs v ecm, hard to tell where this is going

The ecm has high pressure over us on Christmas day.
I can't really see that happening with record cold in the U.S there's likely to be a strong jet stream heading our way and pushing back against this high.
They all agree on a building high in Europe but ecm has it moving our way.
It's the building high in europe coupled with what gfs say a deeping low pulling in the cold air and then the difference in between and we could be stuck in the middle between the two that is giving these strong forecast winds.

It looks like we are in for strong winds though whatever day/days it will happen.

Oscar Bravo

Midday Christmas day

ninebeanrows

I think that is the tightest gradient I've ever seen from a GFS Op over Ireland. Destructive winds

JCX BXC

So it's fairly guaranteed that a Storm Barbara isn't too far away, the real question is how strong it's going to be.

Meteorite58

Deepening to 950mb on the 18Z, goes on as low as 948mb . Note the charts are Mean speeds. What will the ECM do ?

cherryghost

Been a while F5'ing a morning GFS run....

Rebelbrowser

cherryghost wrote: »

Been a while F5'ing a morning GFS run....

Likewise. The 23rd storm looks worse again on the 6z gfs but it looks like the worst of it will now miss us to the nw thankfully. 25th not shown yet....

See below:-

cherryghost

Downgrade but still bad for the northern half of the country on xmas day.

Think I'll be asking to work from home on Friday :P

JCX BXC

Was expecting much more of a downgrade a few days ago than what we are seeing!

A little excited for the first storm, it just has terrible timing.

Rebelbrowser

On the 6z Christmas day is (thankfully) a non event wind wise for all but the very North West I'd have said? See below...



Snow risk downgraded too of course.....:mad:

gugsy

Rebelbrowser wrote:

On the 6z Christmas day is (thankfully) a non event wind wise for all but the very North West I'd have said? See below...

Not entirely true it is a bit of a downgrade and tracking a little further north. But we are still 6 days out, any deviation is massive. Current models have us catching the edge of the storm with wind between 80-100 kph and gusts from 100-150 kph. Even on the Irish sea there will be strong winds enough to cancel a crossing or two if they are travelling Xmas day. Lots of changes to come yet tho.