The Next President of France will be...

CelticRambler

Yeah, that's the one!

Bob24

On opinion polls, I think they have been getting too much bad press recently and I would tend to trust them enough.
Aside from the previous UK general election which pollsters messed-up, overall they haven't been all that bad; it is more the people and journalists using them who have been forgetting to read the fine prints attached (an opinion poll is mean to be an instant capture at a given time rather than a prediction of what will happen on the day of the vote, and nowadays opinions can change fast; and they all come with a clearly indicated error margin which means when they say something like opinions are split lets say 52/48 no conclusion can really be drawn from them besides "it is pretty close").

Chuchote

What often happens in France, I'm told, is that people make a protest vote in the first round, which ties, and then vote for the sane candidate in the run-off.

Rjd2

Panorama have a special on Le Pen and her money issues in 40 mins, will be easy to find afterwards online

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08lp7fx

Rjd2

So Panorama was decent enough.

I didn't know Marine had crawled back to her dad for a loan of 6 million.:eek:

The picture in the Trump building was debated, have heard some and from the left say that her rocking up wasn't Trump's idea, although they clearly do share some friends in the far right money raising world.

Russia was debated, nothing we didn't know, but odd that she last week said her meeting with Putin the other week was the first time they met, when her dad said they had met before.

Anyway, nice little write up on Melenchion who is having a surge,

http://www.politico.eu/article/jean-luc-melenchon-french-far-left-firebrand-campaign-of-revenge-election-president/?utm_content=buffer1a08c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

The Fillon recovery may have hit the rocks again also

http://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Sondage-presidentielle-Fillon-au-plus-bas-Le-Pen-remonte-1225205?link_time=1491235237#utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&xtor=CS2-14

Chuchote

Then there's the question of bringing the Assemblée Nationale with them if they win http://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/Macron-s-il-gagne-la-presidentielle-disposera-t-il-d-une-majorite-a-l-Assemblee-Nationale-858368 Even though Macron is backed by the powerful Énarques, could the National Front stymie him? And if Le Pen won, would she be blocked at all sides by the other parties?

Bob24

Chuchote wrote: »

And if Le Pen won, would she be blocked at all sides by the other parties?

As a president she would have a lot of executive power, but to really get things done or change legislation she would also need a majority in parliament. As pretty much every single party is clear it won't enter a coalition with hers, this would be quite diffectult as Front National alone would need to win over 50% of the seat. But this is also a double edged sword because being ostracised in this way by other parties makes them stronger and increases there chances of getting an absolute majority on their won and thus be fully in charge (a voter who mostly agrees with them but for exemple would prefer a party with a milder view on certain topics doesn't really have an alternative option which would suit them better but still be in position of wining a majority or governing with Front National, so that voter will be tempted to just go to Le Pen even if they are not in full agreement).

An Ciarraioch

Of course, the major problem is that the Assemblée voting system is effectively designed for a two-party arrangement, if four or five parties are in contention for every constituency seat, all bets are off as to eventual outcomes.

Bob24

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Of course, the major problem is that the Assemblée voting system is effectively designed for a two-party arrangement, if four or five parties are in contention for every constituency seat, all bets are off as to eventual outcomes.

And actually since the two round system is different for the législative elections compared to the one used for the presidential election, the configuration you mentioned would be very favourable for Front National (the difference is that as opposed to presidential elections the rules allow for more than 2 candidates in the second round in some cases which are frequent when there are 3 or 4 candidates with a potential for more they 15-20% in the first round, and if it is the case it means the ticket to get elected can be as low as 34% of voters if there are 3 candidates left or 26% if there are 4).

Chuchote

Couldn't watch the programme on Le Pen's finances on Panorama; it's region-locked.

otnomart

Chuchote wrote: »

Couldn't watch the programme on Le Pen's finances on Panorama; it's region-locked.

It can be found on YouTube

Rjd2

Its here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_v82AehhxaM

Chuchote

There's a flood of Twitter posts with the paired hashtags #LeGrandDébat #JeVoteFillon this morning. Some are people; many others are clearly bots, with a low tweet count but a building number of followers. This is the same technique Russia is claimed to have used in the US election.

http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2017/04/03/522503844/how-russian-twitter-bots-pumped-out-fake-news-during-the-2016-election
https://www.revealnews.org/blog/how-an-army-of-twitter-bots-almost-created-the-next-great-political-pundit/

Fillon, by the way, is being boosted as promising a) to cut dole queues and b) to cut 500,000 civil service jobs. Go figure!

An Ciarraioch

Latest Ifop poll gives Le Pen 40.5% against Macron in the second round - starting to look uncomfortably close if you allow an extra few percent for shy FN voters.

Bob24

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Latest Ifop poll gives Le Pen 40.5% against Macron in the second round - starting to look uncomfortably close if you allow an extra few percent for shy FN voters.

It still is quite a large gap.

Having said that, while it was a bit long and painful to watch at times, the debate yesterday is actually giving one tentative key to understand how a Le Pen victory could happen.

I saw a journalist (Yves Calvi) making an interesting comment about it this evening: out of the 11 candidates Macron is the only one who 100% embraces economic globalisation without wanting to regulate it much differently, full-fledged multiculturalism over national identity, and European integration as it has been done while wanting to do more. On that last point and for exemple on a current hot topic in France which they discussed: he is the only one not having issues with EU rules arounds "travailleurs detachés" - which allow foreign labour to work in a country but under the tax and employment laws of another country and all the others ones are fairly strongly against it; or if you look at a more longer term topic they are all fairly happy and proud to say they voted against the European constitution back in 2005 except from Macron.

The journalist was making what I think is a fair point: if the second round ends-up being Le Pen / Macron (the most anti-EU of the "large" candidates vs the most pro-EU of all candidates), it could turn into some type of proxy-referendum for or against the EU. And given that every single voter who went for another candidate than Macron in the 1rst round will have voted for someone who to is criticising things about the EU which Macron thinks are great, in this context Macron's capacity to convert other candidates' 1rst round voters into his own 2nd round voters could not be as good as some expect.


A reasoning along those lines is why I always thought Macron was a good opponent from Le Pen's perspective for the second round.

CelticRambler

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Latest Ifop poll gives Le Pen 40.5% against Macron in the second round - starting to look uncomfortably close if you allow an extra few percent for shy FN voters.

40% isn't "uncomfortably close" to 60% :pac: and FN voters aren't shy!

Latest poll (after last night's debate) gives LePen 23.5% (down 2%), equal with Macron (down 0.5%), with Fillon regaining ground (19%) but being chased by Mélenchon (17%)
In the second round: Macron 62% vs. LePen 38%

I ran out signal last night while listening to the debate, but for as much as I heard, Le Pen gave an awful performance. How anyone sane could vote for her incoherent policies is a mystery ... but then sanity didn't exactly prevail in the States.

Bob24

CelticRambler wrote: »

I ran out signal last night while listening to the debate, but for as much as I heard, Le Pen gave an awful performance.

Yes and le Pen (like all the big 5) was fairly uninteresting and tried to avoid any direct confrontation with anyone else. I think they knew they didn't have much to gain and were up against smaller candidates who had nothing to lose and could go ballistic, so they played it safe. Even Mélanchon who usually stands out was fairly muted.

Really it was the moment of fame for the smaller candidates (which to say it more seriously is probably useful as they usually get very limited media exposure), but I don't think it will have much of an impact at the top.

Bob24

The last poll there should include samples taken after the debate:



Not a huge impact but a possible confirmation that Le Pen was so-so and Melanchon is the best speaker of the batch.

I suspect it will eventually stop and I am doubtful it will be enough for him to become a game changer, but I am quite impressed by Melanchon's steady an sustained rise over the past 2 months btw (he is one of the few candidates who don't have ups and downs as he almost seems to only have ups which adds-up in the long run and allowed him to double his score over that period. But as I say that I can't help mentioning Hamon being the only candidate who has seems to have downs :-D - and who must have helped Melechon a lot in sustaining that growth as he probably is where many former Hamon voters have gone).

Rjd2

CelticRambler wrote: »

40% isn't "uncomfortably close" to 60% :pac: and FN voters aren't shy!

Latest poll (after last night's debate) gives LePen 23.5% (down 2%), equal with Macron (down 0.5%), with Fillon regaining ground (19%) but being chased by Mélenchon (17%)
In the second round: Macron 62% vs. LePen 38%

I ran out signal last night while listening to the debate, but for as much as I heard, Le Pen gave an awful performance. How anyone sane could vote for her incoherent policies is a mystery ... but then sanity didn't exactly prevail in the States.

I think for non Le Pen fans to worry is if she was to start getting close to mid forties and ideally passing that more often than not.

She is still losing to Macron by 20 points, she is getting close to Fillon in second round run offs, but Fillon is not even certain to finish in the top 3 so that does not mean much.

And before someone says the polls were wrong with Brexit etc, show me some where the leave campaign was regularly 20 or so points behind. :pac:

Rjd2

Probably should give some praise to Poutou who from all accounts was great fun. 1st guardian link is a short video of him burning Fillon and Le Pen and second a written article on him and his performance.

Fillon genuinely looked like he wanted to kill him.:pac:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2017/apr/05/factory-worker-poutou-emerges-as-star-of-french-presidential-tv-debate-video

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/05/french-election-factory-worker-philippe-poutou-emerges-as-star-of-tv-debate

ZeroThreat

I'm confident that French voters will be sensible enough to remain with the common sense of the establishment and status quo, rather than foolishly embrace bigotry and radicalism. (not to mention more extreme leftist welfare-statist nonsensical notions)

Chuchote

Bob24 wrote: »

Mélanchon

Has something gone weird with Boards's coding today, mods? I see this as M, capital A with a tilde over it, followed by a copyright mark, then 'anchon'. Other accents seem to be weirded too. (I'm using Chrome on a MacBook running OSX Sierra.)

CrabRevolution

Chuchote wrote: »

Has something gone weird with Boards's coding today, mods? I see this as M, capital A with a tilde over it, followed by a copyright mark, then 'anchon'. Other accents seem to be weirded too. (I'm using Chrome on a MacBook running OSX Sierra.)

I noticed the same thing trying to spell Sinn Féin earlier. Firefox, Windows 8 on a PC here.

4068ac1elhodqr

Rjd2 wrote: »

Probably should give some praise to Poutou

Philippe Poutou did well by all accounts, the 'casually clothed Monsieur' may well complicate voting, by soaking up stray votes from around the edges.

LePen gained some slight momentum, but don't think she can win it, this time.

There's a thread somewhere about the effects of the UK leaving the EU. It's fairly insignificant when compared to what would happen if France left via LePen.

France (and the EU) can 'absolutely' not afford such a risk, at this current time.

Bob24

Chuchote wrote: »

Bob24 wrote: »

Mélanchon

Has something gone weird with Boards's coding today, mods? I see this as M, capital A with a tilde over it, followed by a copyright mark, then 'anchon'. Other accents seem to be weirded too. (I'm using Chrome on a MacBook running OSX Sierra.)

Yes accents seem to have stopped working since yesterday. I think it is an issue with the code inserting new posts into the database (old posts still look OK).

Rightwing

I'd have far confidence in the Italians voting in an anti EU leader than the French.

4068ac1elhodqr

Rightwing wrote: »

I'd have far confidence in the Italians voting in an anti EU leader than the French.

Agree, Italians will leave before France.

Chuchote

NYT piece on the Poutou effect in the latest presidential debate - funny!

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/06/world/europe/with-disrespect-mechanic-candidate-bursts-french-political-elites-bubble.html?hpw&rref=world&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well

That angered Mr. Poutou. He didn’t bother with honorifics or first names — another sore point for the offended television commentators.

“And then we’ve got Le Pen, next to me, Le Pen, dipping into the public purse,” Mr. Poutou said. “It’s not here, it’s Europe, and now for somebody who is anti-European, the worst is that the National Front, which calls itself anti-system, it doesn’t give a damn. It protects itself thanks to the laws of the system, thanks to parliamentary immunity, and so refuses to answer a police summons.”

Then he scored what was acknowledged as the evening’s bull’s-eye, aimed squarely at Ms. Le Pen: “When we workers are summoned by the police, we don’t have worker’s immunity. Sorry about that. There it is. Here we go,” Mr. Poutou said.

He didn’t look as if he was joking. The studio audience burst into applause. Ms. Le Pen, visibly flustered, was left uncharacteristically silent. She had been attacked by a factory worker for being a privileged child of the system — a nuclear hit against a rabble-rousing candidate whose rallies are always framed by banners with the words “In the name of the people.”

Bob24

This part of the NYT pièce should also be noted though:

Le Monde heard Mr. Fillon mutter furiously, “I’m going to sock you with a damn lawsuit, you.”

Afterward, the television commentators in Paris sniffed. “I don’t think Philippe Poutou deserves any honors,” said Anna Cabana, an analyst on BFMTV. “He acted very disrespectfully.”

Some of the things Poutou said to Fillon and to a smaller extend Le Pen would indeed likely make him found guilty of defamation if they decided to sue him.

That he speaks differently from the usual political cast and represents people who usually aren't represented is all good (I have complained about the poor treatement he gets in some media before). But with this while he must have made many Fillon and Le Pen haters happy (and there are many of them) he also shocked a lot of people and I think this type of combined attack could consolidate the right-wing electorate (blurring the border between Front National and Les Républicains which used to be a very strong one, and leading more Fillon voters to go for Le Pen in the second round).

Bob24

Mélanchon must be partying everyday: he seems to keep rising and one poll today is putting him at the same level as Fillon (both 19%).

And since Macron and Le Pen are both falling (draw at 23%), the race it really starting to look very tight between the top 4.

An Ciarraioch

Rightwing wrote: »

I'd have far confidence in the Italians voting in an anti EU leader than the French.

Grillo is more populist than right-wing, and while Italians may bizarrely wax lyrical about the worthless lira, whether they would actually ditch the euro in a referendum is another matter entirely.

Rjd2

Macron 1.82 now on betfair and 8/11 with some bookies, interesting drift when you consider he was floating about 1/2 only a few weeks ago.

Somewhat tempted to load up on him again. :eek:

Bob24

I won't risk it but I also think with the latest polls (see my previous post) Mélanchon at 15/1 might be worth considering. He's definitely far from being my top favourite but by now I am starting to think his chances of winning could be more than 1 in 15 (if he somehow manages to keep rising in the polls and make it through the first round, he has actual chances of winning in the second one whether it is v.s. Macron, Fillon, or Le Pen).

Rjd2

Le Pen v Melenchon would be immense fun in the second round...

"FREE STUFF FOR EVERYONE":pac:

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

Le Pen v Melenchon would be immense fun in the second round...

"FREE STUFF FOR EVERYONE":pac:

If this is what the second round looks like I can see capital outflow from French banks even before a new president is elected. Rightly or wrongly many people would see it is a threat for their savings.

PopePalpatine

So, his election would be like Syriza on absinthe?

Chuchote

Bob24 wrote: »

I won't risk it but I also think with the latest polls (see my previous post) Mélanchon at 15/1 might be worth considering. He's definitely far from being my top favourite but by now I am starting to think his chances of winning could be more than 1 in 15 (if he somehow manages to keep rising in the polls and make to to the second round, he has actual chances of winning in the second one whether it is v.s. Macron, Fillon, or Le Pen).

You're betting on them? Where? I never bet except every few years on the Grand National, but this might be fun to put a fiver each way (or whatever you do in a presidential election).

Bob24

Chuchote wrote: »

You're betting on them? Where? I never bet except every few years on the Grand National, but this might be fun to put a fiver each way (or whatever you do in a presidential election).

But I've placed a few on bwin.com, see their politics bets here: https://sports.bwin.com/en/sports#sportId=61

But as far as betting is concerned Rjd2 is the specialist here and has posted good summary tables of odds for various websites taking politics bets ;-)

Chuchote

Bob24 wrote: »

Rjd2

Say what?

Bob24

Here's the link to a summary table of odds on various websites which had been posted:

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/next-president?selectionName=marine-le-pen

very little in it to be fair, but Skybet and bet365 who are huge bookmakers make Asselina shorter than Hamon. :eek:

Bob24

Good summary if opinion polls for the top 5 candidates across multiple polling institutes (click to enlarge):



Either they are all correct or all wrong, as they are all pretty much telling the same story!

Chuchote

Macron on the downswing, Le Pen on the up http://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Sondage-presidentielle-Macron-sur-la-pente-descendante-Melenchon-en-hausse-1228745

Bob24

You meant Mélanchon rather that Le Pen I assume? (while smaller the Macron's, Le Pen has seen a small decline in this poll over the past week)

Chuchote

Bob24 wrote: »

You meant Mélanchon rather that Le Pen I assume? (while smaller the Macron's, Le Pen has seen a small decline in this poll over the past week)

No, I was looking at Paris Match's running poll:

http://www.parismatch.com/La-presidentielle-en-temps-reel

Bob24

Yes looking at the same one: Le Pen started the week at 25.5% and ended it at 24.5%

Only Fillon and Mélanchon have been rising.

Chuchote

First time I've seen her top the numbers, though - a whole point above Macron.

Good if Mélenchon is moving up, if only to pull the eventual winner a little leftwards.

CelticRambler

Chuchote wrote: »

First time I've seen her top the numbers, though - a whole point above Macron.

What do you mean by "top the numbers" ? Until very recently, she was consistently highest in the first round prediction, regardless of who came in second and third. Since September, she's dropped from about 27-30% (depending on who else was included in the candidate list at the time), through 25-27% at the start of they year, to her current 24-ish%, just ahead of, or equal to, Macron.

If you look behind the headline numbers, the apparent change in her support is entirely due to the number of undecided voters slowly making up their minds, and - as discussed much earlier in this thread - giving that vote to anyone other than MLP.

Rjd2

CelticRambler wrote: »

What do you mean by "top the numbers" ? Until very recently, she was consistently highest in the first round prediction, regardless of who came in second and third. Since September, she's dropped from about 27-30% (depending on who else was included in the candidate list at the time), through 25-27% at the start of they year, to her current 24-ish%, just ahead of, or equal to, Macron.

If you look behind the headline numbers, the apparent change in her support is entirely due to the number of undecided voters slowly making up their minds, and - as discussed much earlier in this thread - giving that vote to anyone other than MLP.

Agreed, she is slowly but surely support, its by no means massive and she should still qualify from the first round, but only a few months ago she was very likely to top the first round, now its not a cert whatsoever.

If I was MLP I'd want the first round asap, the Melenchon rise and Fallon mini recovery will leave her a little uneasy.

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

Agreed, she is slowly but surely support, its by no means massive and she should still qualify from the first round, but only a few months ago she was very likely to top the first round, now its not a cert whatsoever.

If I was MLP I'd want the first round asap, the Melenchon rise and Fallon mini recovery will leave her a little uneasy.

It is a very open election, but if I had to make a prediction today I would say she will top the first round but with a smaller score than she was getting in the polls a few weeks ago. This is partly due to a unusual configuration for a French election with 4 candidates now being in the top league (usually there would be only 2 or 3 capable of going above 15%), which means even a score in the low 20s could be enough to finish first.

BUT it has to be kept in mind that things can evolve a lot in the coming 2 weeks. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the top 4 significantly going down and transferring votes to some of the others.

Chuchote

The second-craziest election, after the one in which Coluche stood.