The Next President of France will be...

Rjd2

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-09/le-pen-says-france-not-responsible-for-nazi-s-vel-d-hiv-round-up

Awful stuff Marine, and from a purely point scoring pov, a massive balls up. Those who agree with her were going to vote for her anyway, but those not sure, stuff like this will send them running for the hills.

Chuchote

For those who don't know about it, the Vel d'Hiv was the great velodrome where the super-popular cycle races of the 1930s had been held.

https://www.ushmm.org/wlc/en/article.php?ModuleId=10008213

—To preserve the fiction of a French police force independent of the German occupiers, French policemen carried out the mass arrest of some 13,000 Jewish men, women, and children.
—In order to avoid a public outcry on Bastille Day, a French national holiday, the roundup was moved from July 13–15 to July 16–17.
—The majority of those arrested were deported to Auschwitz.

To give a little context, a house around the corner from the Irish Embassy in Paris has a plaque on it, remembering the mainly Jewish école maternelle (creche) which stood there at the time. When the police came to take the kids to the Vel d'Hiver, their teachers and minders heroically went with them. They were all killed.

Bob24

Poll published this morning (and conducted on 5-7 April) now showing Mélanchon having taken over Fillon. Looks like he is sucking-up all the far left electorate from Hamon and some of the more traditional left one who had gone to Macron but is now reconsidering as Mélanchon becomes a credible option. And he might also be getting some of the working class back from Le Pen. The fact that Hamon only has 48% of his backers saying they are certain to vote for him means he could potentially leak quite a lot more voters (while he is rising fast enough Macron is also quite behind in terms of certainty of choice, so there is a clear risk for him).

Also a couple of other second round polls on top of the usual Macron/Le Pen we are getting (I had read before those publishing second round polls besides the two favourites of the first round was banned, maybe the tight race has changed that?).

CelticRambler

That's pretty disastrous for Les Républicains - to head into an election with a highly unpopular socialist president not even bothering to run again and still come fourth, losing to candidates of the left and the centre ... :eek:

Somehow, I don't think we'll be seeing the primaire experiment repeated in France in the near future! :pac:

Bob24

Yes clearly, ending-up in this situation whereas only 3 or 4 months ago the election looked like it would be a walk in the park from them is not exactly a success.

At least if it gets people to understand primary election are a stupid idea when combined with the French electoral system, that will be a good thing.

(having said that I still expect Macron to run into trouble due to his tactics consisting of trying to please everyone coming back to bite him, and his decline of the past week could be the start of it, so Fillon hasn't lost yet but with Mélanchon's progress he might not be the beneficiary even if what I expect happens)

johnp001

Market appears less confident of Macron victory today.

French Election Risk Reawakens as Bonds Drop, Volatility Jumps

Help!!!!

Not sure if anyone posted this video but its about the youth in France backing Le Penn

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSvdJSldikY

Chuchote

Help!!!! wrote: »

Not sure if anyone posted this video but its about the youth in France backing Le Penn

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSvdJSldikY

Dear God, is that whatsisname doing the interview? And she's saying the euro is a "major handicap" to France having power in the world? Is she delusional?

4068ac1elhodqr

johnp001 wrote: »

Market appears less confident of Macron victory today.

French Election Risk Reawakens as Bonds Drop, Volatility Jumps

Seems still to be fairly stable and the clear favourite with Macron.

It's just becoming slightly more complicated due to the gaining traction of Melenchon. Some talk of a 4 horse race.

Melenchon (France's Jeremy Corbyn) seen a recent 16-17% surge, that's enough to get the banks nervous.



One interesting proposal is the reduction in the working week to 32 hours, as well as overhauling the EU and pulling France out of NATO.

The 4-day working week idea could be something of a spectacular factor, how much could your weekend (thus quality of life index) be improved if it started on Thurs evening?

You'd may also be able to retire by 60, how many more millions of votes does that offer alone attract?

On the flip-side, the easing of immigration laws may not go down as well.

Bob24

Good data visualisation of how the support for each candidate has been evolving over time (from the Wikipedia page on the election, aggregated view of various available opinion polls, with the raw data available here):

An Ciarraioch

Bob24 wrote: »

Good data visualisation of how the support for each candidate has been evolving over time (from the Wikipedia page on the election, aggregated view of various available opinion polls, with the raw data available here):

Mélenchon nearing MoE territory between him and the front-runners, would we see record abstention levels if he faced off against Le Pen? Limited second-round scenarios suggest he'd win, but who would centrists view as the lesser of two evils?

https://mobile.twitter.com/undefined/status/851722230283239425

Bob24

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Mélenchon nearing MoE territory between him and the front-runners, would we see record abstention levels if he faced off against Le Pen? Limited second-round scenarios suggest he'd win, but who would centrists view as the lesser of two evils?

I'd say a Mélanchon/Le Pen second round is completely unpredictable at this stage. Current polls are not very useful as pretty much no one has considered the situation seriously until this week, and therefore voters have been answering pollster very lightly about it (without having had the chance to seriously thing about which one they would pick, and considering that for many of them it would be like choosing between having a leg or an arm amputated so it will be something they need to think about before making a choice). I have no idea which way it would go, but I am quite confident things would change quickly and drastically compared to today's second round polls if this becomes a reality rather than a hypothetical scenario.

johnp001

Some market indicators suggesting that traders consider Melenchon or Le Pen as having a higher probability than opinion polls suggest.

Zero Hedge wrote:

French Sovereign Risk Soars To 5 Year Highs As Election Looms
With the rise of communist candidate Melenchon throwing the French election results into disarray for the status quo supporters, it appears traders are rushing headlong for the safety of core-core Europe and rapidly exiting anything to do with France.

As reported in our overnight wrap, the recent surge in far-left candidate Melenchon has changed the French presidential election calculus materially in recent days, sending the spread between French and German 10Y blowing out again, helped by yesterday's Goldman downgrade of French OATs.

Looking elsewhere on the curve, as the Trump election hit, France and Germany were equal in terms of 2Y bond yields; since then, the risk premium for owning French bonds over German has exploded to over 55bps - the highest since May 2012.

This is practically the highest level of differentiation between the core European nations' bond markets since the very peak of the European crisis.

It's not just France however, as 1-month, 25 delta EURUSD risk reversals hit levels not seen since the depths of the Eurozone crisis, suggesting the market views Le Pen's odds of winning as far higher than the daily polls would suggest.
Link

4068ac1elhodqr

johnp001 wrote: »

Some market indicators suggesting that traders consider Melenchon or Le Pen as having a higher probability than opinion polls suggest.

Could also be reflected in the severe level of risk of either of these candidates.

One one hand you have the potential removal of France from the EU. The other offering is a 32hr work week, free healthcare, UBI and then retirement at 60, mostly paid for by taxes on the rich.

Bob24

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

Could also be reflected in the severe level of risk of either of these candidates.

One one hand you have the potential removal of France from the EU. The other offering is a 32hr work week, free healthcare, UBI and then retirement at 60, mostly paid for by taxes on the rich.

He doesn't want to say it openly as he is afraid of looking too similar to Le Pen, but Mélanchon's platform implies leaving at least the eurozone and possibly the EU. No way the budget deficit he's planing for (even with his optimistic economic forecasts) will be accepted by other EZ members.

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/851846366225674245

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/04/french-election-headed-run-between-jean-luc-m-lenchon-and-marine-le-pen

While people for ages have been fretting over Le Pen as president, plenty of powerful people will find the thought of Melenchon as president disgusting:p

Rightwing

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Mélenchon nearing MoE territory between him and the front-runners, would we see record abstention levels if he faced off against Le Pen? Limited second-round scenarios suggest he'd win, but who would centrists view as the lesser of two evils?

https://mobile.twitter.com/undefined/status/851722230283239425

That would be the ideal scenario.

4068ac1elhodqr

Bob24 wrote: »

He doesn't want to say it openly as he is afraid of looking too similar to Le Pen, but Mélanchon's platform implies leaving at least the eurozone and possibly the EU. No way the budget deficit he's planing for (even with his optimistic economic forecasts) will be accepted by other EZ members.

Just read he is wanting that referendum, so the choice (blame) will be for the public to handle.
Logical I guess if he's introducing a new 100% tax on the rich, to stop them moving away so easily.

This could get very interesting, here's some of the ideas he proposing, that could certainly sweep up a few million extra votes:

100% taxation for those earning more than e33,000pm.
EU Referendum, or at very least, the modification of treaties.
Citizen's Revolution (re-write of the constitution).
UBI/Minimum wage of e1,300pm.
32hr work-week options.
Early retirements (60yo).
Free healthcare.

An Ciarraioch

Macron wins every second round match-up, Mélenchon easily beats Le Pen and Fillon, according to Elabe:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Electograph/status/851886490468659200/photo/2

Rjd2

What percentage do you guys give Melenchon would make the last 2?

4068ac1elhodqr

Rjd2 wrote: »

What percentage do you guys give Melenchon would make the last 2?

Still some time away in this 4-horse race (23 Apr - 7 May), in which the stakeholders may try to address the rise of the two de-stabilising candidates.

Don't fancy LePen's chances as much as previously, then again a 2-3wks can be a long time in politics.

There's one interesting figure via Fred @26, assuming Mel soaks up the great undecided and alternative votes. Which could happen - just look at what's on offer: 4-day work week, min-w/ubi and an early retirement too.

Rjd2

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

Still some time away in this 4-horse race (23 Apr - 7 May), in which the stakeholders may try to address the rise of the two de-stabilising candidates.

Don't fancy LePen's chances as much as previously, then again a 2-3wks can be a long time in politics.

There's one interesting figure via Fred @26, assuming Mel soaks up the great undecided and alternative votes. Which could happen - just look at what's on offer: 4-day work week, min-w/ubi and an early retirement too.

That is what is known as good value loser aka my favourite type bet:P

I think I'l have a small little bet on that.

Also in case anyone sneers in a month when the bet likely loses, I do expect Le Pen to qualify, but Melenchon rise hurts her as he can sweep up a lot of those attracted by her left wing economic policies without the stigmata of voting for Le Pen.

Sadly the prices for Melenchon to reach the second round are pretty skinny at the moment though.:(

Bob24

Getting tighter at the top.

Macron only is 3.5% ahead of Fillon and 4% ahead of Mélanchon. Close to the margin of error, and well within the potential change of scores based on voters' certainty of choice.

An Ciarraioch

It appears any Le Pen momentum has firmly gone into reverse, with all rivals extending their runoff leads. Surprisingly, the only real second round contest would be Macron v Mélenchon, which suggests the Right would simply stay at home.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Electograph/status/852493287952969728

https://mobile.twitter.com/Electograph/status/852516403659898881

Suryavarman

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

Could also be reflected in the severe level of risk of either of these candidates.

One one hand you have the potential removal of France from the EU. The other offering is a 32hr work week, free healthcare, UBI and then retirement at 60, mostly paid for by taxes on the rich.

LOL. Those fairytale policies won't be paid for.

PopePalpatine

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

It appears any Le Pen momentum has firmly gone into reverse, with all rivals extending their runoff leads. Surprisingly, the only real second round contest would be Macron v Mélenchon, which suggests the Right would simply stay at home.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Electograph/status/852493287952969728

https://mobile.twitter.com/Electograph/status/852516403659898881

Are you sure about that? From what I've heard about Macron, he seemed to have a pro-business/anti-"red tape" streak in him, but on the other hand that would have been months ago.

4068ac1elhodqr

Suryavarman wrote: »

LOL. Those fairytale policies won't be paid for.

Maybe so, but all he has to do is convince the voting masses.

Could be that the public will simply become blinded with rose tinted plans for their new 3.5 day weekends and early retirements.

Chuchote

Good programme on TV5monde now about the election and the different candidates' promises & philosophies.

Chuchote

Nice explainer from the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/04/french-elections-all-you-need-to-know

Bob24

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

It appears any Le Pen momentum has firmly gone into reverse, with all rivals extending their runoff leads. Surprisingly, the only real second round contest would be Macron v Mélenchon, which suggests the Right would simply stay at home.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Electograph/status/852493287952969728

https://mobile.twitter.com/Electograph/status/852516403659898881

It seems to depend on what poll you are looking at. The Ifop one is telling a slightly different story and while she's on a downwards phase at the moment (though less than Macron or Hamon) she is overall the most stable candidate of all in the long term.

See daily chart from 1rst of February to 13th of April:

Chuchote

New York Times has a hair-raising piece about Le Pen and her circle

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/13/world/europe/marine-le-pen-national-front-party.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Even before Ms. Le Pen’s remarks this week denying France’s culpability in a notorious wartime roundup of Jews, recent revelations in the French news media, including a well-documented new book, revived nagging concerns about the sympathies of the woman who would be France’s next president.

Two men in her innermost circle — Frédéric Chatillon and Axel Loustau — are well-known former members of a violent, far-right student union that fought pitched battles with leftists and took a turn toward Hitler nostalgia in the mid-1990s.

The article goes on to detail what it means by "Hitler nostalgia", including

“They have remained National Socialist,†said Aymeric Chauprade, once Ms. Le Pen’s principal adviser on foreign affairs until a falling out, partly over his pro-Israel stance.

“They are anti-Semites, nostalgic for the Third Reich, violently anticapitalist, with a hatred for democracy,†he added in an interview. “People think they’re marginal. But in fact, I discovered, she protects them. She supports them. They are at the heart of everything.â€

and

Mr. Le Moal told of a 1993 rally Mr. Chatillon organized for the student group in Paris that resounded with “Sieg Heils†and Nazi salutes.

“During that period, every year, Frédéric Chatillon organized a dinner on the birthday of the ‘fuhrer,’ April 20, to pay homage to ‘this great man,’†the affidavit states.

It goes on to describe a gathering in a Paris restaurant when Mr. Chatillon brought a painted portrait of Hitler — “a portrait Chatillon showed us during the dinner, saying, ‘My beloved fuhrer, he is magnificent,’ and kissing the picture.â€

It says he also organized “striped-pajama†parties as a student, an allusion to the clothing Jews wore in death camps and concentration camps.

Then there's complicated stuff about the party's money methods

Under French law, the state reimburses the campaign expenses of candidates who earn more than 5 percent of votes. Mr. Chatillon had refined the system to an art, according to a high-ranking French campaign finance official and Mr. Chauprade, as well as two new books that closely examine the National Front’s finances.

The official and one of those books, “Le Procès Interdit de Marine Le Pen,†or “Marine Le Pen’s Forbidden Trial,†by Laurent Fargues, describes how that system worked.

A printer would charge Riwal, say, 180 to 220 euros, or $191 to $233, for 400 posters; Riwal would then charge a small front party affiliated with the National Front, called Jeanne, €500 for the posters. Jeanne, in turn, would charge the candidates the inflated price.

After the election, the candidates would claim reimbursement from the state for the inflated amount, and that reimbursement would be turned over to Jeanne.

An Ciarraioch

Talk about a tightening race!

Ipsos France:

Macron 22%
Le Pen 22%
Mélenchon 20%
Fillon 19%

How on earth is Fillon managing to stay in the contest?

Bob24

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

How on earth is Fillon managing to stay in the contest?

Simple answer: all the other options you listed at the top are extremely repulsive for a conservative-right voter, and it is a segment where a lot of the French of the electorate stands. Some have left due to Fillon as a candidate, but many are sticking around (or could return) for the political manifesto.

Rjd2

Yeah very tight betting wise, Macron now bigger than even money on betfair.

Melenchon coming in hugely, bookies running for cover, some as low as 6/1.

Understandable I suppose, Melenchon's rise in the polls last few weeks has been incredible, while his policies are pie in the sky, they clearly resonate with the general public.

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

Yeah very tight betting wise, Macron now bigger than even money on betfair.

Melenchon coming in hugely, bookies running for cover, some as low as 6/1.

Understandable I suppose, Melenchon's rise in the polls last few weeks has been incredible, while his policies are pie in the sky, they clearly resonate with the general public.

Yeah and I think the whole thing is becoming extremely unpredictable as French politics are becoming extremely polarised around 4 views of the world which are getting increasingly isolated from others:
- economically liberal and socially libertarian (Macron)
- economically liberal and socially conservative (Fillon and to some extend Dupont-Aignan)
- economically dirigiste and socially libertarian (Melanchon and to some extend Hamon)
- economically dirigiste and socially conservative (Le Pen)

Since building bridges between these is increasingly hard and they all now appear broadly of equal strength, whoever wins will be a bit of a gamble and make about 75% of the population unsatisfied.

Chuchote

In the unlikely event that Melenchon gets in on a protest vote, Macron will probably be a shoo-in the next time, with more experience and offering (or at least promising) a steadier set of policies.

4068ac1elhodqr

A Monumental computer blunder could cost Marine Le Pen the French general election as 500,000 citizens living outside of France have the chance to vote twice. Naturally these folks won't want a closed-off France. Le Pen is basically considered to be too much of a risk to the EU project. French authorities confirmed they would not be investigating the potential electoral fraud until AFTER the election, when retrospective prosecution may take place...

Chuchote

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

A Monumental computer blunder could cost Marine Le Pen the French general election as 500,000 citizens living outside of France have the chance to vote twice. Naturally these folks won't want a closed-off France. Le Pen is basically considered to be too much of a risk to the EU project. French authorities confirmed they would not be investigating the potential electoral fraud until AFTER the election, when retrospective prosecution may take place...

Interesting; not necessarily so that expats would hate Le Pen's dream of a Napoleonic Frexitish France, though; expats can have strange dreams too.

Bob24

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

A Monumental computer blunder could cost Marine Le Pen the French general election as 500,000 citizens living outside of France have the chance to vote twice. Naturally these folks won't want a closed-off France. Le Pen is basically considered to be too much of a risk to the EU project. French authorities confirmed they would not be investigating the potential electoral fraud until AFTER the election, when retrospective prosecution may take place...

The content of this link sounds like total bull**** from thand journalist. Firstly there is no specific polling card per election and what matters to be allowed to vote is to be present on physical copy of the register at your polling station on the day of the election, so "half a million people received duplicate polling cards in the post, which would allow them to cast two votes at the first round " makes little sense. Secondly if it was found that a large amount of voters casted 2 votes it would obviously void the election - so if there was any serious suspicion of this potentially happening due to duplicates on the voting registers, there would already be serious pressure to either fix the issue or delay the vote until it is the case. "French authorities confirmed they would not be investigating the potential electoral fraud until AFTER the election" would just be a surreal and very improbable reaction in that case.

4068ac1elhodqr

Bob24 wrote: »

The content of this link sounds like total bull**** from thand journalist. Firstly there is no specific polling card per election and what matters to be allowed to vote is to be present on physical copy of the register at your polling station on the day of the election, so "half a million people received duplicate polling cards in the post, which would allow them to cast two votes at the first round " makes little sense. Secondly if it was found that a large amount of voters casted 2 votes it would obviously void the election - so if there was any serious suspicion of this potentially happening due to duplicates on the voting registers, there would already be serious pressure to either fix the issue or delay the vote until it is the case. "French authorities confirmed they would not be investigating the potential electoral fraud until AFTER the election" would just be a surreal and very improbable reaction in that case.

Who knows, the Express (often know for sci-fi) is awaiting a response from the French Embassy in London (home to est. 300,000 french nationals).

If they reported in the article that France’s Interior Ministry has said 'it will not be invalidating the election because of the duplicate voting glitch' and it isn't accurate - the newspaper will have to address the publishing of such, the story is still live on their site.

An Ciarraioch

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

Who knows, the Express (often know for sci-fi) is awaiting a response from the French Embassy in London (home to est. 300,000 french nationals).

If they reported in the article that France’s Interior Ministry has said 'it will not be invalidating the election because of the duplicate voting glitch' and it isn't accurate - the newspaper will have to address the publishing of such, the story is still live on their site.

Ah, that explains it, the Express haven't been a creditable newspaper since Princess Diana died, and they were nicknamed "the Daily Diana" due to their coverage.

Rjd2

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/emmanuel-macron-frances-ed-miliband-not-justin-trudeau/

While still confident of a Macron victory, the Hollande shadow is something that just won't go away and its poison.

While I'd expect him to beat Le Pen, Melenchon and even Fillon would be different matters.

Chuchote

Perhaps - hopefully - the fact that Melenchon is coming up so strong may moderate Macron's lunatic desire to slash 120,000 civil service jobs and cut taxes on the rich, if he does get in.

Bob24

Le Pen 23%, Macron 22%, Fillon 21% in this morning's opinionway rolling poll: http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/04/17/35003-20170417LIVWWW00038-presidentielle-le-fil-en-direct-du-lundi-17-avril-2017.php

It's getting really tight. Anyone who feels very sure about their predictions at this stage is probably overconfident, but I think Macron's Juppé moment I have been talking about for months might be coming.

Chuchote

John Oliver has a hilarious, horrible show about it.

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/853923067755671552

So close this election, happy with my bets so far, but moderately tempted to back Fillon to win the first round. His voters clearly have not all fled, don't forget he did hammer the initial favorite to win this. :P

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/853923067755671552

So close this election, happy with my bets so far, but moderately tempted to back Fillon to win the first round. His voters clearly have not all fled, don't forget he did hammer the initial favorite to win this. :P

Yes the odds for Fillon are getting more favourable as well ... happy with the bet I placed when he was 7/1. People are starting to realise that not only his remaining voters are going nowhere (really they have nowhere else to go) but also that Macron's voter base is much more fragile than Le Pen's or Fillon's. If you only take into account people who say they are sure about their choice, Le Pen leads by quite a margin, with Fillon second, and Macron/Mélanchon close enough to each other and distant third and forth.

Fillon winning the first round though? I don't know as in spite of having a solid base the bad publicity around his moral behaviour lost him some voters amongst which some can probably not be recovered. What I see as the most likely outcome is Le Pen first and Fillon second. I am not completely ruling out Macron but I think anyone putting money on him at the current odds is making a mistake.

Chuchote

Damning piece about Macron's neoliberalism - “Mr Valls, Mr Macron, and Mr Hollande are doing what Mr Sarkozy dreamed of doing!”

https://www.dissentmagazine.org/online_articles/french-election-trouble-with-emmanuel-macron-centrism

Bob24

Chuchote wrote: »

John Oliver has a hilarious, horrible show about it.

Just watched this now ... I have to say he's pretty good, much better than I expected.

Bob24

Macron taking the lead again on the Opinionway poll this morning. But with all candidates within 4% from each other the top 4 is basically within the margin of error for the poll!