The Next President of France will be...

4068ac1elhodqr

Le Pen would 'suspend all immigration' if elected. There seems to be a strong 'one nation' theme these days.

Meanwhile over in the land of Aus, the 457 Visa, now used by about 95,000 foreign workers, will be replaced by a new temporary visa and the list of occupations that qualify for a visa will be reduced. "We are bringing the 457 visa class to an end. It's lost its credibility," Mr Turnbull said at a press conference in Canberra.

Chuchote

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

Le Pen would 'suspend all immigration' if elected.

Including from EU? France would have to leave the EU in that case; freedom of movement is a central tenet of the union.

Bob24

Chuchote wrote: »

Including from EU? France would have to leave the EU in that case; freedom of movement is a central tenet of the union.

It doesn't seem like she was very clear about it, and it is not part of her manifesto.

What I saw here is she suggested a "temporary moratorium on immigration". She said it would be "for a few weeks" as new legislation on immigration is being drafted.

It's pretty vague and I didn't see details about who would be affected besides her clarification that "it is not a moratorium on tourist visas nor for students requesting visas for the upcoming academic year" and that it is mainly targeted at family reunification requests.

Chuchote

Family unification may be a force for stability. One of the strongest theories on why the Dublin flatblocks went so feral for a while their in the 1960s-80s is that the grandmas were removed from the family unit - they had been a controlling force when they were the matriarchs of the tenements, and without them, young nuclear families couldn't cope and teenagers went wild.

Calina

Bob24 wrote: »

It doesn't seem like she was very clear about it, and it is not part of her manifesto.

What I saw here is she suggested a "temporary moratorium on immigration". She said it would be "for a few weeks" as new legislation on immigration is being drafted.

It's pretty vague and I didn't see details about who would be affected besides her clarification that "it is not a moratorium on tourist visas nor for students requesting visas for the upcoming academic year" and that it is mainly targeted at family reunification requests.

I don't think she can do this. I doubt she would get it through the National Assembly and Senate.

Bob24

Calina wrote: »

I don't think she can do this. I doubt she would get it through the National Assembly and Senate.

I am not sure to be honest, but I think a temporary ban could be done through an executive order (French presidents have more executive power than most Western head of states). But of course long term changes of immigration laws would require a majority in parliament.

All candidates make campaign promises on the basis of them obtaining that majority though, as until this year it has been a given that voters give it to a newly elected president (but this year might be different as at least 3 of the top 4 contenders will have a very hard time getting that majority if they are elected - including Le Pen).

4068ac1elhodqr

There is still the possibility of a runoff between Le Pen & Melenchon.
Which would be a disaster for France (fiscally) and devastating to the EU as a whole.

Ignoring polls, perhaps by far the most underrated candidate is Mel,
after all, the left-wing firebrand promises 'higher wages, and yet fewer working hours'.
This type of (unpractical promise) could prove highly irresistible to the masses.
Not too long ago there was mass protests at a change in increasing working hours.

Le Pens (even more unpractical) promise to halt all immigration could also sell very well.
She's not fav to win, but fav to gain the most 1st round votes.
Now if Mel can candy top the already very tempting offers, it could get very interesting.

If these two make the final pair, expect the € to see very strong devaluation.

Rjd2

Le Pen's dad was praising Melenchon in some far right French publication last week. Melenchon has actually slammed French banks for not touching Le Pen before. They definitely have similar attributes the base when you considered their economic policies.

Assuming one of them does not make the final 2, there will be plenty of supporters for the victorious one to target.

Obvious comparison is how Trump did well with Bernie supporters.

An Ciarraioch

Rjd2 wrote: »

Le Pen's dad was praising Melenchon in some far right French publication last week. Melenchon has actually slammed French banks for not touching Le Pen before. They definitely have similar attributes the base when you considered their economic policies.

Assuming one of them does not make the final 2, there will be plenty of supporters for the victorious one to target.

Obvious comparison is how Trump did well with Bernie supporters.

Have seen commentary that 25% of Le Pen voters would consider Mélenchon in round two, but only 5% of his voters would do the reverse, but will have to find a link.

4068ac1elhodqr

Would be interesting to hear the view of white van man/lady in small town Fr.
Much like Trump's success around the dust belt, Melenchon may become magnetic.

Here's the (impractical) offer:

'Work less, earn more, retire early, oh and don't worry about any healthcare or childcare costs.
A referendum? Sure we'll get you one of those too' (probably).

Calina

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

Would be interesting to hear the view of white van man/lady in small town Fr.
Much like Trump's success around the dust belt, Melenchon may become magnetic.

Here's the (impractical) offer:

'Work less, earn more, retire early, oh and don't worry about any healthcare or childcare costs.
A referendum? Sure we'll get you one of those too' (probably).

You have spent time looking at FB comments on, say, the Le Monde FB page or maybe Ouest France or one of the other regionals? Good place to start looking.

4068ac1elhodqr

Calina wrote: »

You have spent time looking at FB comments on, say, the Le Monde FB page or maybe Ouest France or one of the other regionals? Good place to start looking.

Don't have nor use FB or any other mentioned sites. This is part of his widely reported manifesto: 32-hr work weeks and early retirements, but most likely only available to the public sector. Very Impractical indeed, but also very attractive.

Bob24

Mélanchon is much closer to a Corbyn or a Sanders than he is to a Trump. As Rjd2 mention there is indeed some overlap between his electorate and the one of Le Pen, but I don't think he can replicate a Trump strategy (in terms of social issues and immigration he is the anti-Trump, and he is appealing to bobo-socialists who jumped off Hamon's ship more than he is to the working class).

Calina

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

Calina wrote: »

You have spent time looking at FB comments on, say, the Le Monde FB page or maybe Ouest France or one of the other regionals? Good place to start looking.

Don't have nor use FB or any other mentioned sites. This is part of his widely reported manifesto: 32-hr work weeks and early retirements, but most likely only available to the public sector. Very Impractical indeed, but also very attractive.

You wanted to know what Joe Soap French person might think of Melenchon. These are good places to start looking. Both OF and Le Monde have comments on their FB pages.

4068ac1elhodqr

Calina wrote: »

You wanted to know what Joe Soap French person might think of Melenchon. These are good places to start looking. Both OF and Le Monde have comments on their FB pages.

Random low-quantity faceless comments from FB demographics leaning towards youth and liberalism.
As with Trump/Brexit the only useful tool really is ones own perception, particularly above most polldata.

It probably boils down to something similar to the basic AIDA formula.

Notice (attention) of Mel's offer(s) to the millions of undecided.
Perceived validity* of the details (interest) of such an offer.
(Desire^) or attraction to offer in relation to ones interest.
(Action) to follow through.

*Not saying he'll win, but could ^do better than expected.

hatrickpatrick

A Melenchon vs Le Pen run-off would be a dream. At that stage, no matter who wins, the European establishment gets another well deserved and long overdue bloody nose.

Bob24

Latest poll (published today) on certainty of choice for each candidate. Positions are slowly getting frozen. Fillon and Le Pen are still the strongest in this department, but Macron is catching-up. Hamon is really looking very bad as not only few voters saw they want to vote for him, but but a lot of those are also unsure about their choice.

Chuchote

Macron - in a way - looks like the best of a bad bunch. But I'd be nervous of his arrogance. Rather than trying to get France working, exporting some of their fabulous food products, for example, which you can't get abroad - instead of this he wants to sack a huge tranche of civil servants and soften union power.

He's like me after taking a car maintenance course: "I can fix this easy - I've done a course!"

Bob24

Gunshots at Champs-Elysées at the moment, it seems like policemen were targeted and one of them has been killed.

This will probably change the tone of the campaign tomorrow.

Chuchote

Bob24 wrote: »

Gunshots at Champs-Elysées at the moment, it seems like policemen were targeted and one of them has been killed.

This will probably change the tone of the campaign tomorrow.

It will certainly swing the election to the right. Suspicious minds…

4068ac1elhodqr

Would be interesting to see the latest polldata with just days to go.
Not a fan of polls at all, but there's bound to be some correlation on this, with the next one.

Calina

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

Would be interesting to see the latest polldata with just days to go.
Not a fan of polls at all, but there's bound to be some correlation on this, with the next one.

Latest poll data would not cover tonight's events. With the election on Sunday you will have to make do with that as an indication of impact. Your second sentence is basically meaningless from the point of view of statistics.

Bob24

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

Would be interesting to see the latest polldata with just days to go.
Not a fan of polls at all, but there's bound to be some correlation on this, with the next one.

I don't think we will really see the impact in any poll. If my memory serves well there is a complete ban on publishing polls from the Friday evening before the weekend of the vote. I could be wrong but don't think realistically there is enough time to conduct a poll tomorrow and compile/publish the results before this ban is effective (there will be polls published tomorrow but they will correspond to the opinion as of today).

4068ac1elhodqr

Calina wrote: »

Latest poll data would not cover tonight's events. With the election on Sunday you will have to make do with that as an indication of impact. Your second sentence is basically meaningless from the point of view of statistics.

True enough, one real preference, without any bias (over the polls) is the (live data) showing where folks are putting cold cash.
It currently shows some price shortening on LePen.



That's an average 400% ROI...

4068ac1elhodqr

Guess it's true a week is a long time in politics, price is down, volume is up for LePen 22:30. Next two days will be better indicators.

Chuchote

Calina wrote: »

Latest poll data would not cover tonight's events. With the election on Sunday you will have to make do with that as an indication of impact. Your second sentence is basically meaningless from the point of view of statistics.

Another reason France is more civilised than Ireland. Why in God's name do we have elections on weekdays, when teachers are paid a full day's wage for a day of not-teaching, so their schools can be emptied and used as polling stations, and so that the many students and workers who are registered to vote in Lifford or Ballydehob or the backlands of Roscommon can't get around to voting?

If we had our votes on Sundays, all these outlands-registered voters could bring their laundry home to the mammy and get a nice plate of stew and some hot apple tart, and vote, and it would change the level of polling radically… oh, wait…

Hank Scorpio

I'd be surprised if Le Pen won, but with recent happenings in France it may swing the undecided vote similar to what happened with Trump. #imwithher

The Russian influence seems to be everywhere !

https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/855208632417345536

Bob24

Chuchote wrote: »

Calina wrote: »

Latest poll data would not cover tonight's events. With the election on Sunday you will have to make do with that as an indication of impact. Your second sentence is basically meaningless from the point of view of statistics.

Another reason France is more civilised than Ireland. Why in God's name do we have elections on weekdays, when teachers are paid a full day's wage for a day of not-teaching, so their schools can be emptied and used as polling stations, and so that the many students and workers who are registered to vote in Lifford or Ballydehob or the backlands of Roscommon can't get around to voting?

If we had our votes on Sundays, all these outlands-registered voters could bring their laundry home to the mammy and get a nice plate of stew and some hot apple tart, and vote, and it would change the level of polling radically… oh, wait…

Also France offers proxy voting. All you need is to go to any police station, court, or French embassy and fill-out a form to designate someone who is on the same electoral register as you so that they can vote on your behalf. This is used a lot by students or young workers who live in a different city from the one they are registered to vote in.

CelticRambler

Chuchote wrote: »

If we had our votes on Sundays, all these outlands-registered voters could bring their laundry home to the mammy and get a nice plate of stew and some hot apple tart, and vote, and it would change the level of polling radically… oh, wait…

Ah, I dunno. Considering the number of ex-pats who put such effort into getting home from the four corners of the globe to vote in the "Marriage Equality" referendum, I doubt you can say that timing and distance are what discourage voters from turning up at the polling stations. :P

As for last night's incident, I don't think it'll have any significant effect. Thanks to the government's constant reminders that we're in a "state of emergency" and the terrorists are out to get us, day and night, wherever we go, most people have already built an expectation of this kind of thing into their scan of the daily news. There's even a bit of debate as to whether we're giving the "terrorists" easy targets by posting as many over-worked, under-paid, inexperienced solidiers and policemen all over the country.

Bob24

Whoo ... I used to have some sympathy for Poutou although for the most part I disagree with his views, but with is behaviour at last night's series of live interviews and this morning on the radio he is definitely losing me.

He was extremely nonchalant when discussion the dead policeman last night, and this morning he is going as far as saying "maybe if the police wasn't armed, the guys wouldn't target them" ("Peut-etre que si la police n'etait pas armee, les mecs ils ne viseraient pas").

Chuchote

CelticRambler wrote: »

Ah, I dunno. Considering the number of ex-pats who put such effort into getting home from the four corners of the globe to vote in the "Marriage Equality" referendum, I doubt you can say that timing and distance are what discourage voters from turning up at the polling stations. :P

True - but also true that if you don't have to go to any trouble you're more likely to stroll down to the polling station (on an ordinary electoral vote, not huge issues).

Bob24 wrote: »

Whoo ... I used to have some sympathy for Poutou although for the most part I disagree with his views, but with is behaviour at last night's series of live interviews and this morning on the radio he is definitely losing me.

He was extremely nonchalant when discussion the dead policeman last night, and this morning he is going as far as saying "maybe if the police wasn't armed, the guys wouldn't target them" ("Peut-etre que si la police n'etait pas armee, les mecs ils ne viseraient pas").

C'est dingue!

From this morning's Examiner:

http://www.irishexaminer.com/viewpoints/analysis/a-hostile-president-in-france-would-be-far-more-destructive-than-brexit-448281.html

A hostile president in France would be far more destructive than Brexit

Friday, April 21, 2017
EU leaders should be considering to what extent they would be able to work around a Le Pen presidency, writes Mark Leonard.

AFTER the United Kingdom’s unexpected vote to leave the European Union and Donald Trump’s unexpected triumph in the US presidential election last year, you might imagine that Europe’s chancelleries have developed detailed contingency plans for a victory by the far-right National Front’s Marine Le Pen in France’s presidential election. You’d be wrong.

The thought of President Le Pen is so terrifying, it seems, posing such a threat to the future of Europe, that it remains for many a possibility they dare not entertain, much less plan for. But that threat is precisely why Europe must address seriously the possibility of her winning, however unlikely it may seem.

Bob24

Because I love my charts - see below the last OpinionWay poll published before the vote (updated this morning), with the history of how things evolved on this particular daily poll since February.



With the top 3 contenders at 21/22/23 (well within the margin of error) and Mélanchon not too far behind, it is as tight as ever.

And needless to say regardless of what people think of his political views the prize for running the most effective campaign objectively goes to Mélanchon.

CelticRambler

Bob24 wrote: »

And needless to say regardless of what people think of his political views the prize for running the most effective campaign objectively goes to Mélanchon.

Hmmmm. How much of that, though, is due to Hamon being the inheritor of Hollande's weakness. That graph shows that Mélenchon was really just teetering along until Hamon was confirmed as the PS candidate and his campaign fell apart.

Seeing that graph also revives my hope that MLP will not top the Round One poll after all, and there's a chance that she'll find herself in third or even fourth place when the ballot papers are counted on Sunday night. That would make it a great day for France ... and the EU!

An Ciarraioch

There's an excellent chart on the Wiki page for the election showing the regional variations: Macron leads in the west (Brittany, Normandy, Centre, Pays de la Loire, Auvergne-Rhone Alpes), Le Pen in the east (Hauts de France, Grand Est, Bourgogne-Franche Comte, Occitania, PACA, Corsica), with Fillon leading in Ile de France, and Melenchon in Nouvelle Aquitanie.

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/855368516920332289

Donald has his say.:pac:

I'd actually suggest if you were a MLP fan you don't need this whatsoever.

Trump's approval rating was very bad in France last time I checked.

Heck even Wilders toned down a lot of his Trump references towards the end as he knew it wasn't a vote winner.

I don't think its been a great few weeks for MLP really, her comments on Jews, immigration rhetoric (extreme even for her) and her poor performances in the TV debates have not helped.

I think she should still reach the second round and heck who knows what happens then, but wouldn't be as shocked as I would have been a few months ago if she is squeezed out on Sunday.

Bob24

CelticRambler wrote: »

Hmmmm. How much of that, though, is due to Hamon being the inheritor of Hollande's weakness. That graph shows that Mélenchon was really just teetering along until Hamon was confirmed as the PS candidate and his campaign fell apart.

Hamon was pain in the ass for Hollande during his mandate and Hollande's inner circle is all pushing for Macron, so for all of Hollande's weaknesses I wouldn't really agree in saying Hamon is inheriting them (in time, Macron probably will though as he is the real legacy of Hollande).

Really Hamon decided to bring the Socialist Party to uncharted territory and go after the same (fairly far left) voters as Mélanchon, and clearly he was no match for his opponent and got eaten up by the one he was hoping to swallow.

And while Hamon was definitely his largest source, it also has to be said that looking at the graph Mélanchon also managed to "steal" voters both from Macron and Le Pen.

4068ac1elhodqr

EU admits there is no 'Plan B' if French voters deliver upset by selecting LePen (not 'LeLen' as spelt in the article) and Melenchon.

Meanwhile Aus, NZ, US have all severely restricted their skilled visa programmes. That only leaves cheerful, but chilly Canada for the brain drain if it starts to go pear-shaped in the EU.

Calina

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

EU admits there is no 'Plan B' if French voters deliver upset by selecting LePen (not 'LeLen' as spelt in the article) and Melenchon.

Meanwhile Aus, NZ, US have all severely restricted their skilled visa programmes. That only leaves cheerful, but chilly Canada for the brain drain if it starts to go pear-shaped in the EU.

I'm not getting why you think there should be a plan B. Ultimately reality is reality is reality and they will just deal with Le Pen if necessary in the same way as they deal with Victor Orban. These people tend not to be in power forever. They handled Berlusconi for a long time.

To be honest, if it starts to go seriously pearshaped in the EU, I wouldn't assume too many places will be booming.

Bob24

Calina wrote: »

I'm not getting why you think there should be a plan B. Ultimately reality is reality is reality and they will just deal with Le Pen if necessary in the same way as they deal with Victor Orban. These people tend not to be in power forever. They handled Berlusconi for a long time.

To be honest, if it starts to go seriously pearshaped in the EU, I wouldn't assume too many places will be booming.

Agree they don't need a "plan B" at this stage and should just deal with whatever France voters pick once their decision is known. However Le Pen is not Orban and France is not Hungary (especially with the UK on the way out).

I don't know whether she would do everything she says, but if the president of France shows up at the European Council asking for major changes in the treaties and with a strong determination to exit if other members refuse, it will be a headache for other member states as of France was indeed indeed to leave the EU as political construct would likely disappear (and the UK has opened the Pandora box showing that European construction is not necessarily irrevocable).

hatrickpatrick

In all honesty, beyond the media hype, what are the chances of a Melanchon vs Le Pen run-off? It would be the anti-establishment dream but I'm trying not to get my hopes up given how the media love a sensationalist story over mundane facts.

PopePalpatine

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

In all honesty, beyond the media hype, what are the chances of a Melanchon vs Le Pen run-off? It would be the anti-establishment dream but I'm trying not to get my hopes up given how the media love a sensationalist story over mundane facts.

If you're fond of gambling, you can get 10/1 odds on it.

After the Da'esh attack last night I'd say Fillon & Le Pen will be attacking Melenchon's support of current immigration policies to keep his vote down.

4068ac1elhodqr

PopePalpatine wrote: »

If you're fond of gambling, you can get 10/1 odds on it.

After the Da'esh attack last night I'd say Fillon & Le Pen will be attacking Melenchon's support of current immigration policies to keep his vote down.

Melenchon is somewhat open to the idea of holding a referendum on EU membership, which means self-controlling borders in that unlikely event. Still his odds have drifted out.

Odds wise for LePen to win are only down slightly after yesterday around to around 3.8* avg. Very strong and the shortening fav to win the 1st round @1.67 perhaps as a protest vote.

* These are decimal odds meaning 100 in is 380 returned.

Suryavarman

Chuchote wrote: »

Macron - in a way - looks like the best of a bad bunch. But I'd be nervous of his arrogance. Rather than trying to get France working, exporting some of their fabulous food products, for example, which you can't get abroad - instead of this he wants to sack a huge tranche of civil servants and soften union power.

He's like me after taking a car maintenance course: "I can fix this easy - I've done a course!"

Macron is dedicated to reducing the burden of France's onerous labour regulations which will be key to getting people back to work. Neither Melenchon, Le Pen or Hamon have a credible plan to reduce France's permanently high unemployment rate.

4068ac1elhodqr

Paris, April 21 (Reuters) (some abbreviation/re-formatting):
/
* Centrist Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen both on 23 percent of voting intentions in first round of presidential election on Sunday, according to very latest BVA poll.
* Poll carried out online between April 20 and April 21, includes some people surveyed on night of April 20 in which a policeman died.
* Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon seen in third place on 19.5 percent, conservative Francois Fillon seen on 19 percent.
* Turnout expected to come in at between 76 and 80 percent.
/
looks close enough and a good turnout due

hatrickpatrick

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

Paris, April 21 (Reuters) (some abbreviation/re-formatting):
/
* Centrist Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen both on 23 percent of voting intentions in first round of presidential election on Sunday, according to very latest BVA poll.
* Poll carried out online between April 20 and April 21, includes some people surveyed on night of April 20 in which a policeman died.
* Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon seen in third place on 19.5 percent, conservative Francois Fillon seen on 19 percent.
* Turnout expected to come in at between 76 and 80 percent.
/
looks close enough and a good turnout due

Interesting breakdown. Does anyone have an indication of the previous poll, so that we can see in which direction things are trending for each candidate?

From my reading (of articles, not numbers, which obviously is a less reliable way of gauging polls) the race is essentially tightening, with Le Pen slipping, Melanchon gaining, and Macron staying more or less where he has been - is this correct?

An Ciarraioch

Previous BVA poll:

Macron 24% (so -1)
Le Pen 23% (same)
M?lenchon 19% (+0.5%)
Fillon 19% (same)

Therefore, it seems the attack had zero impact.

Chuchote

Only article I can find in my usual round of papers making any suggestion that the vote might be influenced is in Le Parisien:

http://www.leparisien.fr/societe/attentat-des-champs-elysees-daech-cherche-t-il-a-influencer-le-vote-de-dimanche-21-04-2017-6874386.php

Présidentielle : Daech cherche-t-il à influencer le vote de dimanche ?En frappant de nouveau la France à trois jours du premier tour de l'élection présidentielle, Daech fait un retour fracassant dans la campagne. Son objectif n'est pas forcément de peser sur le résultat du scrutin, estiment deux spécialistes du terrorisme islamiste.

A couple of the statements:

«Daech cherche davantage à perturber la vie démocratique française qu’à l’influencer, affirme Jean-Charles Brisard, président du Centre d'analyse du terrorisme (CAT). L’Etat islamique cherche à avoir une répercussion médiatique plus que politique. C’est ce que permet une attaque en pleine élection présidentielle, qui constitue un moment charnière de notre démocratie.»

Directeur de recherche au Centre français de recherche sur le renseignement (CF2R), Alain Rodier abonde dans le même sens : «Frapper juste avant l'élection présidentielle est une manière d'avoir une audience. Plus l'audience est élevée, plus leur but – qui est de terroriser –, sera atteint. De cette façon, ils vont autant cibler une élection qu'un match de football ou le 14 Juillet.»

It all sounds a bit theoretical, though.

Otherwise, there's lots of reportage of the attack, but it's understood as an attack from the outside rather than something that should affect French politics.

Valord

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

EU admits there is no 'Plan B' if French voters deliver upset by selecting LePen (not 'LeLen' as spelt in the article) and Melenchon.

Meanwhile Aus, NZ, US have all severely restricted their skilled visa programmes. That only leaves cheerful, but chilly Canada for the brain drain if it starts to go pear-shaped in the EU.

Do they really need a plan B? I've been thinking about this today and from what I could find, both Melenchon and LePen are only pushing for a referendum on membership, not a straight exit from the Union. Recent opinion polls suggest that over 70% of French voters want to maintain the Euro as a currency, never mind just membership, despite French dissatisfaction with the EU. It would take quite a strong change of public opinion to get to the same level of closeness as we saw in the UK on quitting.

Rightwing

I've a 4 figure sum on Macron @ 4/5.

Seems like free cash to me.

Bob24

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

From my reading (of articles, not numbers, which obviously is a less reliable way of gauging polls) the race is essentially tightening, with Le Pen slipping, Melanchon gaining, and Macron staying more or less where he has been - is this correct?

Depends on the polls. They all show Le Pen and Macron at the top and close to each other around 22-23%, but not always in the same order. Some show Fillon as a very close third (just 1% behind) and Mélanchon lagging behind around 18-19%. Other show both Fillon and Mélanchon in that 18-19% bracket.

So broadly they all agree on a tie between Le Pen and Macron at the top and Mélanchon being 3-4% behind. But where they disagree is whereas Fillon is in the same league as the first two or more at the level of Mélanchon.

Now frankly I don't think anyone should be reading too much into this beyond saying all 4 have chances of making it to the second round. I wouldn't be surprised if for a number if reasons these polls are up to 5% of for any of those candidates either up or down, which could completely change the order of arrival.