The Next President of France will be...

Calina

Per Le Monde, by midday, the turn out was some 28.54% which is pretty much inline with the 2012 turn out in the same timeframe (28.29). Given there has been some debate about reduced turn out this is interesting.

An Ciarraioch

Europe Elects has tweeted numerous "exit polls" doing the rounds in La Libre, a Belgian newspaper. M?lenchon seems to hoovering up the DOM-TOM vote, while the mainland poll sees:

Macron 24%
Le Pen 22%
Fillon 20.5%
M?lenchon 18%

4068ac1elhodqr

This is slightly interesting, there has been some price movement in the live exchanges over the last 12-24hrs.
In favour of Macron. This is generally more accurate and much more responsive than the main bookies such as Powers.



It's probably also the only real latest data available at the moment anyway, unless there is any polling today.
This is 1st round winner market only. It's a set of data over last 12-24hrs approx, you can consider the data as of value or not.
It does still have LePen as the favourite however, but not by as much, 10%+/-. This is still a live and changeable market.

It comes from a betting exchange with just under €1m in this 1stR market. Be clear am not encouraging anyone to bet on this market, just providing some relevant data - that may be more free of bias, than from e.g. paid-for surveys, slightly leaning news agencies or publishing house etc.

Leonard Hofstadter

red ears wrote: »

Remember shy right leaning voters too. People fear a browbeating from the oh so 'tolerant' left so they deny being for trump, for brexit, for le pen etc.

I definitely agree with this, and I'm a liberal type and not afraid to say so! Sometimes in our quest for greater equality and tolerance we get so obsessed with simply shutting down alternative viewpoints because they are 'wrong' which if anything makes people with the 'wrong' view double down on it and even less likely to change their mind. In short, and this is about the only thing I'll ever agree with Katie Hopkins on, the more debate is attempted to be silenced the more it creates a backlash - not immediately, but in the long run.

I would say it's not just those on the left, those on the right are just as intolerant and every bit as deserving of the 'snowflake' label, they are simply intolerant or incapable of justifying their viewpoints, just look at the UK and Brexit, it now feels like you are not allowed to speak out against it as it is the 'wrong' view to have and any attempt to debate it is simply shut down (unless you're in a university or talking amongst young people).

Extremes of the left and right are always bad things, in fact they have far more in common with each other than they do with the sensible centre ground. The traditional left and right are things that we should be glad of, they are far more pragmatic and far less populist than the rag bag crowd on the extremes and as we've seen with Trump, when the extremes get into power they realise their daft policies are unworkable and unachievable.

Bob24

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Europe Elects has tweeted numerous "exit polls" doing the rounds in La Libre, a Belgian newspaper. M?lenchon seems to hoovering up the DOM-TOM vote, while the mainland poll sees:

Macron 24%
Le Pen 22%
Fillon 20.5%
M?lenchon 18%

Without a clear source I wouldn't trust this whatsoever. The French government specifically got a commitment from all polling institutes in France who would have the technical capability to conduct exit polls NOT to do so, and this was clearly and officially announced. Which other organisation would be doing it and have the capability to pool across the country including in oversees territories?

Leonard Hofstadter

Bob24 wrote: »

Without a clear source I wouldn't trust this whatsoever. The French had all polling instituted in France who would have the technical capacity to conduct exit polls NOT to do so and communicated this clearly.

Turnout is almost as good as it was in 2012, which I'm given to understand represent a 'high' turnout for France. That apparently is good news for non FN supporters as FN supporters were always going to turn up and vote.

All that said, I'm certainly not counting my chicken before they've hatched, there is still the risk that LePen and Mélenchon could make it to the run-off, now that would be a complete disaster as both are as distasteful as the other.

My preferred outcome is Macron vs Fillon, Fillon isn't my cup of tea on social issues but given the silliness of the past few years with the hard right, I'd gladly have the old school conservatism back any day of the week - which is what Fillon is after all. To be honest as long as it's not LePen and Mélenchon I don't care as much which of Macron/Fillon makes it as either is more likely to beat LePen/Mélenchon.

Bob24

captainspeed wrote: »

Turnout is almost as good as it was in 2012, which I'm given to understand represent a 'high' turnout for France. That apparently is good news for non FN supporters as FN supporters were always going to turn up and vote.

Intra-day turnout figures are correct and come directly from government sources.

It is the so-called exit poll figures which are more than doubtful given that exit polls have essentially been banned.

Calina

69.42% turn out so far, which is marginally below this time 5 years ago (just over 1 percentage point difference).

TBH, that's kind of high by our standards. I think the polls close at 7 but maybe someone in France can correct me there.

Bob24

Calina wrote: »

69.42% turn out so far, which is marginally below this time 5 years ago (just over 1 percentage point difference).

TBH, that's kind of high by our standards. I think the polls close at 7 but maybe someone in France can correct me there.

7pm in town and medium cities, 8pm in large cities. I've counted ballots before and the French electoral system makes it very quick and straight forward. The results for a polling station will tipycally be available 30 to 45 minutes after it closes.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting - the usually reliable Le Soir saying that Macron is clearly in first place, but that second is too close to call presently:

http://www.lesoir.be/1488788/article/actualite/france/2017-04-23/presidentielle-emmanuel-macron-serait-en-tete-direct

Calina

Le Soir are almost certainly getting that from RTBF which is Belgian state tv. Seeing arguments on twitter over whether that is technically an exit poll or not and more specifically what the source is.

ambro25

I would very dearly love MLP to not make the second round, if only to temper Europhobes here in the UK, persuaded as some seem to be that her election, Frexit and the dislocation of the EU are inevitable. I'm actually wishing for a re-run of Wilders' recent discomfiture.

Voter turnout seemed massive in my local voting bureau (UK, Leeds), never seen a queue like it in 20-odd years.

VG31

Macron and Le Pen have made it to the run-off according to BBC News.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39686993

Calina

VG31 wrote: »

Macron and Le Pen have made it to the run-off according to BBC News.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39686993

To be confirmed pending full count but yes it looks like Marine has come up short for the expected first round win. Current count is based on a sample of 200 polling stations.

Itssoeasy

I'm not that up on french presidential process. Is there always a run off ?

dasdog

Coverage on Bloomberg for anyone interested.

Calina

ambro25 wrote: »

I would very dearly love MLP to not make the second round, if only to temper Europhobes here in the UK, persuaded as some seem to be that her election, Frexit and the dislocation of the EU are inevitable. I'm actually wishing for a re-run of Wilders' recent discomfiture.

Voter turnout seemed massive in my local voting bureau (UK, Leeds), never seen a queue like it in 20-odd years.

I was hoping for her to miss the second round too for similar reasons. Must go and check out the apoplexy below the line on the guardian site. She had a lot of fans there 30 minutes ago.

Stheno

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I'm not that up on french presidential process. Is there always a run off ?

Only if no one gets 50% in the first round.

Is Macron the first ever independent to make round two?

VG31

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I'm not that up on french presidential process. Is there always a run off ?

If a candidate does not receive at least 50% of the vote in the first round there is a run-off (so the majority of the time).

Calina

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I'm not that up on french presidential process. Is there always a run off ?

Not if someone scores over 50% in round one.

An Ciarraioch

Stheno wrote: »

Only if no one gets 50% in the first round.

Is Macron the first ever independent to make round two?

Yes, also first time neither of the Big Two parties have made the runoff. Gaullists last absent in 1981, when Giscard d'Estaing's UDF was involved.

Christy42

Calina wrote: »

Not if someone scores over 50% in round one.

I don't think that has happened though given how fractured French politics is.

Pity Le Pen got through but the vote against her was so fractured for different politicians. I suppose it might be nice to see a complete destruction of her policies in a 1 on 1.

Hope the French take nothing for granted and come out to make their voices heard.

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/856209194449596416

Very true Nate. Le Pen has a chance but its as very slight.

Christy42

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/856209194449596416

Very true Nate. Le Pen has a chance but its as very slight.

Are there many undecided I wonder? Silver mentioned that as a big factor in Trump's favour at the time as they introduced a lot of randomness which helps the underdog.

Valord

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/856209194449596416

Very true Nate. Le Pen has a chance but its as very slight.

It's also a bit like saying "Leister City won the Premier League last year, so that means Burnley are probably going to win this year" or thinking that flipping a coin and landing heads 5 times in a row means the next is going to be heads too. One unlikely outcome doesn't increase the odds of another unlikely outcome.

Christy42 wrote: »

Are there many undecided I wonder? Silver mentioned that as a big factor in Trump's favour at the time as they introduced a lot of randomness which helps the underdog.

They said there were a lot before the first round, but they seem to have broken more or less in line with the polls based on the exit polling data (which I'm assuming is reasonably accurate).

Rjd2

Valord wrote: »

It's also a bit like saying "Leister City won the Premier League last year, so that means Burnley are probably going to win this year" or thinking that flipping a coin and landing heads 5 times in a row means the next is going to be heads too. One unlikely outcome doesn't increase the odds of another unlikely outcome.



They said there were a lot before the first round, but they seem to have broken more or less in line with the polls based on the exit polling data (which I'm assuming is reasonably accurate).

Its lazy also just to say "TRUMP, BREXIT~!"

Leave was always neck and neck, and people who were fretting about the supposedly unstoppable far right have missed the fact that Hofer in Austria and Wilders in Holland under performed.

Christy42

Rjd2 wrote: »

Its lazy also just to say "TRUMP, BREXIT~!"

Leave was always neck and neck, and people who were fretting about the supposedly unstoppable far right have missed the fact that Hofer in Austria and Wilders in Holland under performed.

Let's not also forget that Wilders at least underperformed compared to results that still would not have put him in a position of power. The vast majority of Dutch were always happy to vote for parties who had it is a strict policy that they would not go into power with Wilders.

Akrasia

I'm pleased by the French choosing Macron as their next president. The best candidate out of the 5 main contenders

Yourself isit

Macron seems to be the utter embodiment of the globalist elite. If he applies his brand of ultra thatcherism to France the next president will be far left or right.

hatrickpatrick

Ugh. I knew the papers were just throwing clickbait around by suggesting any likelihood of the "nightmare" Le Pen vs Melanchon scenario, but I won't deny that I did allow myself to get my hopes up.

As much as I absolutely hate to say it, I hope Le Pen wins. As horrible as she and her far right brigade are, the chance of seeing the status quo crumble along with the above-mentioned globalist elite is too close and too tempting to pass up.

I'd have the same hope for her as for Trump, though - that a left-populist candidate like Melanchon will rise up during her term (as I'm hoping Sanders or a Sanders acolyte rises up during Trump's) and wipes the floor with her in 2022.

Rightwing

Are the bookies paying out yet ?

Chuckle chuckle.

Nody

Yourself isit wrote: »

Macron seems to be the utter embodiment of the globalist elite. If he applies his brand of ultra thatcherism to France the next president will be far left or right.

Well seeing what failure the French economy has gone into with the current socialist president flopping around as a fish they might as well try something new for a change.

Cina

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Ugh. I knew the papers were just throwing clickbait around by suggesting any likelihood of the "nightmare" Le Pen vs Melanchon scenario, but I won't deny that I did allow myself to get my hopes up.

As much as I absolutely hate to say it, I hope Le Pen wins. As horrible as she and her far right brigade are, the chance of seeing the status quo crumble along with the above-mentioned globalist elite is too close and too tempting to pass up.

I'd have the same hope for her as for Trump, though - that a left-populist candidate like Melanchon will rise up during her term (as I'm hoping Sanders or a Sanders acolyte rises up during Trump's) and wipes the floor with her in 2022.

Sorry... You want to see society crumble or something? That's almost sociopathic.

MRnotlob606

Le Pen will win.

Banjoxed

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Ugh. I knew the papers were just throwing clickbait around by suggesting any likelihood of the "nightmare" Le Pen vs Melanchon scenario, but I won't deny that I did allow myself to get my hopes up.

As much as I absolutely hate to say it, I hope Le Pen wins. As horrible as she and her far right brigade are, the chance of seeing the status quo crumble along with the above-mentioned globalist elite is too close and too tempting to pass up.

I'd have the same hope for her as for Trump, though - that a left-populist candidate like Melanchon will rise up during her term (as I'm hoping Sanders or a Sanders acolyte rises up during Trump's) and wipes the floor with her in 2022.

In the meantime everything gets f*cked up like a car crash. Yay, big clap

Rightwing

MRnotlob606 wrote: »

Le Pen will win.

Macron is now 1/8.

As I said before, the French don't have the courage to vote for someone like Le Pen/Trump. They are however quite good at protesting and complaining etc.

Banjoxed

Rightwing wrote: »

Macron is now 1/8.

As I said before, the French don't have the courage to vote for someone like Le Pen/Trump. They are however quite good at protesting and complaining etc.

Not everyone is a chump.

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/russian_market/status/856235698839592961

What a child. I don't really like Macron that much, but eh look at the alternative. Hopefully he cops on, not what Macron needs whatsoever.

CelticRambler

Christy42 wrote: »

Are there many undecided I wonder?

Nope. None. They've all cast their votes now! :pac:

Rightwing wrote: »

As I said before, the French don't have the courage to vote for someone like Le Pen/Trump.

What is courageous about voting for socio-economic suicide?

The good news is that, at <22% this is the worst result for the Front National in any election of the last five years, down from 25-28% of the national vote in the most recent ballots.

snowflaker

Wish I'd put money on Macron!

Chuchote

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

As much as I absolutely hate to say it, I hope Le Pen wins. As horrible as she and her far right brigade are, the chance of seeing the status quo crumble along with the above-mentioned globalist elite is too close and too tempting to pass up.

Yeah, that's what people said in the 1930s.

At the moment one exit poll has Le Pen at 22% and Macron at 24%, the other has them the other way around. The cities haven't been counted yet…

snowflaker

https://twitter.com/ToiNyMiAmEe/status/856234752214487041

Valord

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/russian_market/status/856235698839592961

What a child. I don't really like Macron that much, but eh look at the alternative. Hopefully he cops on, not what Macron needs whatsoever.

This has been his general rhetoric recently anyway though, hasn't it? Melenchon seems almost like a Jill Stein type of character who likes being dramatic by pretending the far-right option is the same as the centrist option, or maybe even better.

An Ciarraioch

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Ugh. I knew the papers were just throwing clickbait around by suggesting any likelihood of the "nightmare" Le Pen vs Melanchon scenario, but I won't deny that I did allow myself to get my hopes up.

As much as I absolutely hate to say it, I hope Le Pen wins. As horrible as she and her far right brigade are, the chance of seeing the status quo crumble along with the above-mentioned globalist elite is too close and too tempting to pass up.

I'd have the same hope for her as for Trump, though - that a left-populist candidate like Melanchon will rise up during her term (as I'm hoping Sanders or a Sanders acolyte rises up during Trump's) and wipes the floor with her in 2022.

Weren't you a Soc Dem a few months ago? Thankfully, highly unlikely that Communists and far-left will swing to the far-right.

Stheno

So I've not paid much attention to this, but looked up Macron this evening.

He was a socialist, but seems very centrist on some topics, rather left leaning on others and more right again on others.

Is that a correct intrepretation?

Rightwing

snowflaker wrote: »

Wish I'd put money on Macron!

It's not too late, buy EUR/GBP

Valord

Stheno wrote: »

So I've not paid much attention to this, but looked up Macron this evening.

He was a socialist, but seems very centrist on some topics, rather left leaning on others and more right again on others.

Is that a correct intrepretation?

From what I've seen of him, he certainly seems to be billed as a very centrist candidate. He was a member of the Socialist party but he's in the vain of centrists like Clinton and Blair. He also says he wants to transcend the whole left-right divide. He's pretty to the right on trade and to the left on issues like refugee resettlement. I'm sure people will be putting him in some kind of a box but he does seem like a fairly unique figure as far as policies go.

BabyCheeses

red ears wrote: »

Remember shy right leaning voters too. People fear a browbeating from the oh so 'tolerant' left so they deny being for trump, for brexit, for le pen etc.

ChikiChiki wrote: »

I'll be very surprised if Marine LePen does not win this election. The media and pollsters seem to be very disingenuous to the true level of support that LePen actually has. Its more wishful thinking on their part that she does not come through.

Who would you vote if facing the challenges France currently face?

They must be really shy if they won't even go out to vote. Can't really be true supporters if they aren't voting.

snowflaker

He's certainly more Blairite than Thacherite

more Neo-Lib than Neo-con

Stheno

Valord wrote: »

From what I've seen of him, he certainly seems to be billed as a very centrist candidate. He was a member of the Socialist party but he's in the vain of centrists like Clinton and Blair. He also says he wants to transcend the whole left-right divide. He's pretty to the right on trade and to the left on issues like refugee resettlement. I'm sure people will be putting him in some kind of a box but he does seem like a fairly unique figure as far as policies go.

Thanks, I was trying to figure it out.

I wonder if his pro open borders policy supporting Merkel will be his undoing?