The Next President of France will be...

Christy42

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I don't want to go too far off the topic of specifically the French election but you do realise that I'm talking about tearing down the European establishment along with the banking establishment and not each country's entire system of democracy, right? Like, I'm not talking about disbanding the French police, abolishing criminal trials for murder, theft, rape etc or any such sensationalist ridiculousness. I'm talking about Merkel and her "ordinary Europeans should pay banking debts because we refuse to allow the ECB to do the ordinary work of a normal central bank and bail them out" idiot brigade. I'm talking about the faceless bureaucracy of the EU which issues binding rules without fully democratic approval being needed before they are implemented. I'm talking about the "open borders are sacrosanct and even questioning them makes you an automatic racist" muppets (and I myself am in favour of open borders!!! I just don't like seeing people shamed for their legitimately held political beliefs).


I'm essentially talking about the EU as a political behemoth which ignores the voices of ordinary Europeans. I'd like to see the single currency dissolve and for the EU to be downsized back to what the EEC was - an economic organisation which did not seek to impose a political ideology on the entire continent.

What I'm saying is, that as people have alluded to by suggesting that "society will crumble" if the EU fails in such a manner, that the architects of the system have rather cleverly tied our everyday wellbeing together with the success of their vision - they have created the Eurozone and the EU as a "too big to fail" entity. And what I'm saying is that I, personally, value our freedom above comfort - that I, as one individual, am willing to put up with at least a certain amount of suffering if that is required to get us out of the nightmare setup that is the current incarnation of the EU. I'm simply pointing out that I fully accept others may not be willing to do so - everybody has a line beyond which it stops being worth it. But to suggest that I want to see anarchy in the streets is absolutely ridiculous. If the Eurozone and the European Commission fell apart tomorrow because of too many countries fundamental to their continued operation turned against them, we'd still have Gardaí, we'd still have jails, we'd still have courts, we'd still have an Irish election once every five years, etc etc etc.

To sum up, I want to see more anti-EU leaders being elected in order to redress the balance which is currently far, far too biased towards EU power over national sovereignty, and I'm saying that while I'm obviously a far left individual, I still value the EU establishment getting a bloody nose over the continuation of the intolerable status quo, so therefore I'm willing to stomach the far right getting elected if the far left is not an option - as long as more and more governments tell Merkel and her neoliberal cohorts to f*ck off.

And again ironically I'm not actually anti-EU, I just don't like what the EU has become. When I was a kid it represented something different - or perhaps the boom times simply shielded us from the fact that it was never a partnership of equals but a back door to allowing the financial class and one or two large governments in mainland Europe to actively fight against the democratic will of other European people when it didn't suit them?

The way to get EU reform is to get politicians who want to reform the EU. Politics is becoming to polarised. Supporting LePen or Wilders will not get reform. No matter reform is put into place they will try and rip their countries away from the EU. They want the EU to be taken apart. Middle of the road politicians are getting hard to come by but those who don't want to tear half the system apart tend to look a whole lot better.

I also feel like you are also misguided as to what the EU is and has actually done but as you say a conversation for a different thread.

Chips Lovell

pumpkin4life wrote: »

...granny banger...

Hi everyone,
Please don't forget to read the chart before posting. In particular:

Keep your language civil, particularly when referring to other posters and people in the public eye. Using unsavoury language does not add to your argument.

Thank you

hatrickpatrick

Christy42 wrote: »

The way to get EU reform is to get politicians who want to reform the EU. Politics is becoming to polarised. Supporting LePen or Wilders will not get reform. No matter reform is put into place they will try and rip their countries away from the EU. They want the EU to be taken apart. Middle of the road politicians are getting hard to come by but those who don't want to tear half the system apart tend to look a whole lot better.

We've been trying reform for the last five years and the EU has ignored the people time and time again, which is why I'm now advocating ripping the whole thing apart and starting over.

One of two things will happen if the wave of populism succeeds in knocking over more dominoes: Either (a) the EU will finally feel the wake up call it needs and start to listen to the people, like the reeds bending to the wind in Aesop's fable or (b) it will refuse to do so and get ripped apart, like the stubborn oak tree in the aforementioned fable.

Either of these outcomes is preferable to continuing the status quo, at least to me. And the amount of support people like Le Pen and Melanchon are getting would seem to suggest that I'm far from alone.

I also feel like you are also misguided as to what the EU is and has actually done but as you say a conversation for a different thread.

Maybe so. What I'm not confused about is that, for instance in Ireland's case, the IMF advocated justice and the ECB favoured protecting the system over ordinary peoples' lives. The EU establishment, the Merkelites if you will, went along with the latter - saving the system at the expense of human beings. So as far as I'm concerned, feck 'em. I do not want institutions like this having any involvement whatsoever in running my country, and as I say, I favour their reform > destruction > status quo, in that order. The EU has spent the last decade sticking its fingers in its ears and screwing its eyes shut rather than reforming, which is why I'm just about ready to give up on that and move on to burning it down altogether.

You may not agree with me, but this may at least shed some light on why there are a number of people out there who are willing to cross from the far left to the far right and vice versa if their preferred candidate doesn't get it - much like people who were willing to jump from Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump rather than vote for Hillary Clinton. To quote Glenn Greenwald, highly respected journalist and breaker of the Edward Snowden story:

"Just take a step back for a second. One of the things that is bothering me and bothered me about the Brexit debate, and is bothering me a huge amount about the Trump debate, is that there is zero elite reckoning with their own responsibility in creating the situation that led to both Brexit and Trump and then the broader collapse of elite authority. The reason why Brexit resonated and Trump resonated isn’t that people are too stupid to understand the arguments. The reason they resonated is that people have been so f*cked by the prevailing order in such deep and fundamental and enduring ways that they can’t imagine that anything is worse than preservation of the status quo. You have this huge portion of the populace in both the U.K. and the US that is so angry and so helpless that they view exploding things without any idea of what the resulting debris is going to be to be preferable to having things continue, and the people they view as having done this to them to continue in power. That is a really serious and dangerous and not completely invalid perception that a lot of people who spend their days scorning Trump and his supporters or Brexit played a great deal in creating."

hatrickpatrick

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

When I was a kid, we weren't in the EEC.

We were gloriously free.

And things were craptastic.

And when I was a kid, the EU had not completed its transition from economic to monetary and political union.

Does this not say something about where the "sweet spot" is? Is it really so outlandish to suggest that there is a "Goldilocks Zone" in terms of European integration, and that obviously pre-EEC was too far in one direction but that now, the current EU is too far in the other direction? Is it so outlandish to suggest that there's a middle ground between having no European unity whatsoever and having a behemothic monster of an entity which doesn't give a bollocks about ordinary citizens?

iroced

Bob24 wrote: »

Times have changed and she will be able to capture many more "other" votes than he did. But probably not enough to hit 50% (or I shall say not this time, in 5 years from now I don't know).

What has changed the most is the character leading the party. Jean-Marie Le Pen made so many borderline and completely "over the line" comments that he was not a credible French president considering our recent History.
Marine looks a lot smoother though it is sometimes not 100% clear whether she really is.
The real bonus for FN is Florian Philippot. He's a good debater and knows what he's talking about. He doesn't carry nasty ideas. He's a "sovereignist" who started his political career backing Chevènement.

Now, about Le Pen, well I don't know how many French (or people living in France) are participating in this thread, but FN did/are manage/ing some cities and outside being a FN activist, French people do realise that they do not represent a magical solution to our society issues. And in many cases (e.g. Toulon) they did worse than their predecessor/successor. So, despite the constant disappointment our politicians have brought to us over the last 35 years, I don't think the people are ready to give the keys of the country to such a party. Again, I repeat that as long as FN does not clearly wipe out its past, they don't stand a real chance of governing France.

Christy42

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

We've been trying reform for the last five years and the EU has ignored the people time and time again, which is why I'm now advocating ripping the whole thing apart and starting over.

One of two things will happen if the wave of populism succeeds in knocking over more dominoes: Either (a) the EU will finally feel the wake up call it needs and start to listen to the people, like the reeds bending to the wind in Aesop's fable or (b) it will refuse to do so and get ripped apart, like the stubborn oak tree in the aforementioned fable.

Either of these outcomes is preferable to continuing the status quo, at least to me. And the amount of support people like Le Pen and Melanchon are getting would seem to suggest that I'm far from alone.



Maybe so. What I'm not confused about is that, for instance in Ireland's case, the IMF advocated justice and the ECB favoured protecting the system over ordinary peoples' lives. The EU establishment, the Merkelites if you will, went along with the latter - saving the system at the expense of human beings. So as far as I'm concerned, feck 'em. I do not want institutions like this having any involvement whatsoever in running my country, and as I say, I favour their reform > destruction > status quo, in that order. The EU has spent the last decade sticking its fingers in its ears and screwing its eyes shut rather than reforming, which is why I'm just about ready to give up on that and move on to burning it down altogether.

You may not agree with me, but this may at least shed some light on why there are a number of people out there who are willing to cross from the far left to the far right and vice versa if their preferred candidate doesn't get it - much like people who were willing to jump from Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump rather than vote for Hillary Clinton. To quote Glenn Greenwald, highly respected journalist and breaker of the Edward Snowden story:

"Just take a step back for a second. One of the things that is bothering me and bothered me about the Brexit debate, and is bothering me a huge amount about the Trump debate, is that there is zero elite reckoning with their own responsibility in creating the situation that led to both Brexit and Trump and then the broader collapse of elite authority. The reason why Brexit resonated and Trump resonated isn’t that people are too stupid to understand the arguments. The reason they resonated is that people have been so f*cked by the prevailing order in such deep and fundamental and enduring ways that they can’t imagine that anything is worse than preservation of the status quo. You have this huge portion of the populace in both the U.K. and the US that is so angry and so helpless that they view exploding things without any idea of what the resulting debris is going to be to be preferable to having things continue, and the people they view as having done this to them to continue in power. That is a really serious and dangerous and not completely invalid perception that a lot of people who spend their days scorning Trump and his supporters or Brexit played a great deal in creating."

No politician has even seriously campaigned on eu reform that I can think of. It is either leave as is with more money for my country or rip it apart so the trying has not happened. To begin with reform is now harder as it will shown as a sign of weakness used to fuel the likes of Farage and LePen who want to take it down. I am always curious why the leaders of these movements are frequently idiots like Farage or Trump or career anti establishment types like LePen. I do not think they will lead where you want.

A good plan for rebuilding is required whenever something is ripped down. These politicians always glory in vagueness. That way people can assume whatever is coming next is better in whatever way they prefer. Obamacare was hated until there was a real chance it might go away. Republicans made hay giving out about and letting voters assume a new plan would fit whatever that voter wanted.

Finally I will quite happily take the status quo over a return to Ireland before the EU. Anyone who thinks that was better is deluded.

Zubeneschamali

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Is it really so outlandish to suggest that there is a "Goldilocks Zone" in terms of European integration, and that obviously pre-EEC was too far in one direction but that now, the current EU is too far in the other direction?

I don't think it is outlandish, I just think it is wrong.

A leftist cheering for Le Pen to win and wreck the EU so that "something better" might happen is outlandish.

ambro25

pumpkin4life wrote: »

What happened to you France? You used to be cool!

What are you complaining about?

It doesn't get much cooler than the electorate of a G7 country/EU Big4 giving the rods to the main bipartisan system of the past decades, kicking out both the Tories (Fillon) and Labour (Mélenchon) in one, leaving the choice between only the LibDems (Macron) or a mongrel amalgam of BNP-EDL-UKIP (LePen).

How much more coolness factor do you want? :pac:

Melania on his arm rather than Ms Trogneux? You'll have to wait until shortly after the first official US-France visit

Kitsunegari

Macron's policies are so vague and ambiguous. It would appear that the only real reason to vote for him is because he isn't Marie Le Pen. Another ridiculous election cycle full of poor candidates.

scooby77

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

For those interested in the next big political-news event, there could be something rather peculiar about to happen with the UK's GE results in June.

Pray tell, in another thread if not here. UK election seems a foregone conclusion?

Ash.J.Williams

Has ireland a plan for the event of Le Penn winning and the EU falling?

Rjd2

iroced wrote: »

What has changed the most is the character leading the party. Jean-Marie Le Pen made so many borderline and completely "over the line" comments that he was not a credible French president considering our recent History.
Marine looks a lot smoother though it is sometimes not 100% clear whether she really is.
The real bonus for FN is Florian Philippot. He's a good debater and knows what he's talking about. He doesn't carry nasty ideas. He's a "sovereignist" who started his political career backing Chev?nement.

Now, about Le Pen, well I don't know how many French (or people living in France) are participating in this thread, but FN did/are manage/ing some cities and outside being a FN activist, French people do realise that they do not represent a magical solution to our society issues. And in many cases (e.g. Toulon) they did worse than their predecessor/successor. So, despite the constant disappointment our politicians have brought to us over the last 35 years, I don't think the people are ready to give the keys of the country to such a party. Again, I repeat that as long as FN does not clearly wipe out its past, they don't stand a real chance of governing France.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/marine-le-pen-france-jews-nazis-not-responsible-second-world-war-concentration-camps-death-francois-a7675791.html

That was one of the keys mistakes Le Pen made in last few weeks. A horrific comment which reminded everyone of their past and how disgusting her father was. I recall thinking Philippot was probably watching that thinking WTF.

I dunno if would be the man to replace either Le Pen going forward however, he probably is not as extreme but like Marine, not a lot of charisma there.

hatrickpatrick

Christy42 wrote: »

No politician has even seriously campaigned on eu reform that I can think of. It is either leave as is with more money for my country or rip it apart so the trying has not happened. To begin with reform is now harder as it will shown as a sign of weakness used to fuel the likes of Farage and LePen who want to take it down. I am always curious why the leaders of these movements are frequently idiots like Farage or Trump or career anti establishment types like LePen. I do not think they will lead where you want.

A good plan for rebuilding is required whenever something is ripped down. These politicians always glory in vagueness. That way people can assume whatever is coming next is better in whatever way they prefer. Obamacare was hated until there was a real chance it might go away. Republicans made hay giving out about and letting voters assume a new plan would fit whatever that voter wanted.

Finally I will quite happily take the status quo over a return to Ireland before the EU. Anyone who thinks that was better is deluded.

Why is it a binary choice though? As I said in my previous post, there is a middle ground, and that's an economic but not a monetary or political union, a la the 1990s EU or 1980s EEC. Or to put it more bluntly, a Europe where an unelected institution doesn't get to blackmail an elected government with an artificially imposed financial meltdown if it doesn't do as it is told (ECB vs Lenihan, Winter 2010).

Deub

It was an expected result to have le Pen to the second round. Fillon had so many issues (suits offered by a "friend", his wife and children employed by the state but didn't really worked) and Hamon with so little charisma (french people learned from the mistake they did when electing Holland) there was really not many choices.
I don't think le Pen will president because the majority of candidates asked their supporters to vote for Macron. Melanchon didn't give his opinions and he was the headlines of newspapers today for being a bad loser.

WinnyThePoo

Just read on the Journal there that Le Pen has stepped down as leader of the National Front. Seemingly wanting to attract as much voters as possible.

hatrickpatrick

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't think it is outlandish, I just think it is wrong.

A leftist cheering for Le Pen to win and wreck the EU so that "something better" might happen is outlandish.

The left in Ireland has been anti-EU for years and years, so I'm not entirely sure how a leftist opposing a neoliberal organisation can be regarded as outlandish... Particularly in the context of everything that has happened since the Euro debt crisis, in which it has been made abundantly clear that the EU regards the preservation of the system as more important than both sovereign national governments and human lives.

If the EU was the compassionate, democratic and liberal organisation people claim it to be, it would have agreed with the IMF during our bailout negotiations as to the utter lunacy and injustice of forcing taxpayers to cough up for the wrongdoing of others. Why you believe the left should support such an institution is beyond me.

Here's an environmental analogy for you: if a company is polluting the ocean with factory waste, then it can either continue to do so as normal, choose to reform itself and adopt environmental policies, or be boycotted and close down. It should be obvious that for an environmentalist, reform is preferable but shutting down is still better than continuing as normal.

The current ideologies at the heart of the EU are polluting European politics in a similar fashion. If it will not reform in response to the tide of public anger, then ceasing operation is preferable to continuing the status quo of implementing an agenda that the people of Europe are clearly beginning to reject.

An Ciarraioch

WinnyThePoo wrote: »

Just read on the Journal there that Le Pen has stepped down as leader of the National Front. Seemingly wanting to attract as much voters as possible.

Reminds me of Farage - wanting to avoid any FN association for the run-off, but she'll promptly return for the Assembly vote, one suspects.

Rightwing

LePen stepping down as leader, I hope they get a younger, better looking woman in.

red ears

I wonder will Marion Le Pen take over as the head of FN while Marine focuses on the presidency.

Kitsunegari

WinnyThePoo wrote: »

Just read on the Journal there that Le Pen has stepped down as leader of the National Front. Seemingly wanting to attract as much voters as possible.

It's probably a smart move by Le Pen. She'll have to go more towards the middle ground on some issues if she wants to get elected. Macron is a very vague and ambiguous candidate that will be badly exposed in the next two weeks. The only thing going for him is that he isn't Le Pen which seems to be working at the minute but if Le Pen can tap into the middle ground more she has a great chance of winning.

Fortunately for Macron her hardline stance on most issues won't change which will give her little chance but whatever the result of the election we will have a very divided France. It's very hard to see Macron being able to speak to the dissenters being an 'elitist groomed' investment banker and Marie Le Pen has already alienated a high percentage of the French vote already.

Yourself isit

Strange move by le pen. I would think. So there are now two independents running for president?

4068ac1elhodqr

scooby77 wrote: »

Pray tell, in another thread if not here. UK election seems a foregone conclusion?

It would seem so, but...

What if this 'timely' early election call was actually instructed, as a back door to another EU referendum. What if the now planned tactical voting will result in a slim majority from the 25/1 'coalition of chaos', with one primary agenda.

Just a theory, but there is some twisted logic to this. The UK thought it could take a gamble and survive without the EU. It can. But now it's becoming clear it will likely soon loose Scotland, then later N.Ire as a result of this action, and so wants to take it's chances again, hopefully on better terms with the EU.

An Ciarraioch

If even Wales, the Labour heartland, is increasingly turning Blue, can't see anything other than a Blair-level landslide, I'm afraid.

4068ac1elhodqr

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

If even Wales, the Labour heartland, is increasingly turning Blue, can't see anything other than a Blair-level landslide, I'm afraid.

It would require the LD, SNP and perhaps even some others, but it could happen. When the LD's say they won't do something, they usually do.

Rjd2

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

It would seem so, but...

What if this 'timely' early election call was actually instructed, as a back door to another EU referendum. What if the now planned tactical voting will result in a slim majority from the 25/1 'coalition of chaos', with one primary agenda.

Just a theory, but there is some twisted logic to this. The UK thought it could take a gamble and survive without the EU. It can. But now it's becoming clear it will likely soon loose Scotland, then later N.Ire as a result of this action, and so wants to take it's chances again, hopefully on better terms with the EU.

I'd be tempted to lay May as next PM as she is very short. Tories look dominant but she is very short.

Looking towards the Lib Dem seat spread myself. I expect big things from them, many remain areas up for grabs.

4068ac1elhodqr

As with many referendums, if you give the wrong answer, you'll be asked again.
Not straight away obviously, but not too long after.

Italy however may well tell them to stick it, if those yearly summer ferries keep increasing year on year.

They're clear favourites to win the Eurovision sing-song contest, can't see why, terrible tune.
Goodwill, and a jolly good party for spring 2018?

FTA69

ambro25 wrote: »

What are you complaining about?

It doesn't get much cooler than the electorate of a G7 country/EU Big4 giving the rods to the main bipartisan system of the past decades, kicking out both the Tories (Fillon) and Labour (Mélenchon) in one, leaving the choice between only the LibDems (Macron) or a mongrel amalgam of BNP-EDL-UKIP (LePen).

How much more coolness factor do you want? :pac:

Melania on his arm rather than Ms Trogneux? You'll have to wait until shortly after the first official US-France visit

Melenchon is a Communist, a better equivalent for your Labour analogy would be Hamon. While he didn't get into the run off, Melenchon's showing was remarkable in itself and a sign that the traditional social democratic scene in France is in terminal decline.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting breakdown of first-round voters for the runoff:

PS:
Macron 76-83%
Le Pen 3-8%
Abstain 12-21%

Front Gauche:
Macron 51-62%
Le Pen 9-22%
Abstain 23-36%

Republicains:
Macron 41-48%
Le Pen 23-38%
Abstain 18-30%

Right particularly split, but abstaining Melenchon voters like turkeys ignoring Christmas!

Bob24

FTA69 wrote: »

ambro25 wrote: »

What are you complaining about?

It doesn't get much cooler than the electorate of a G7 country/EU Big4 giving the rods to the main bipartisan system of the past decades, kicking out both the Tories (Fillon) and Labour (Mélenchon) in one, leaving the choice between only the LibDems (Macron) or a mongrel amalgam of BNP-EDL-UKIP (LePen).

How much more coolness factor do you want? :pac:

Melania on his arm rather than Ms Trogneux? You'll have to wait until shortly after the first official US-France visit

Melenchon is a Communist, a better equivalent for your Labour analogy would be Hamon. While he didn't get into the run off, Melenchon's showing was remarkable in itself and a sign that the traditional social democratic scene in France is in terminal decline.

Depends who in Labour you are looking at. Mélanchon (who once was a socialist party member) would be like a Corbyn who had the guts to leave Labour and found his own party and successfully retained a large number of Loubour voters with him.

Leonard Hofstadter

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

If even Wales, the Labour heartland, is increasingly turning Blue, can't see anything other than a Blair-level landslide, I'm afraid.

No question about it. I can't see how the Tories will do badly. Not because they're doing anything great (they're self evidently not with their plans for a disastrous hard Brexit and shutting down the 'remoaners' ably abetted by the extreme right wing British press of course), but because Labour are so fricking useless.

I am so cheesed off with the Tories for Brexit and yet I'd still vote for them over Labour and I still want to see May as PM next time. If I actually thought Labour could win I'd nearly switch to voting for the Tories, Corbyn is a complete headbanger. Now if they had someone like Yvette Cooper as leader or Owen Smith or even Clive Lewis I'd be only too happy to see the Tories replaced. Outside the usual bunch of loony lefties Corbyn has no appeal whatsoever. None at all. If anything, the likes of Diane Abbott and John McDonnell freak me out even more than Corbyn does, there really is such a bunch of fruitcakes running the British Labour party they'd make the likes of the Shinners and the AAA/PBP (or whatever they're calling themselves these days) seem sort of respectable.

I will be voting for the Lib Dems so that we can have a decent anti-Brexit outward looking pro-EU opposition, I do not under any circumstances want the Tories to be allowed to do whatever the hell they want over the next five years. Labour are synthetic Brexit supporters, that's not my cup of tea. I'd vote for the SNP were I living in Scotland as they along with the Lib Dems are the only ones actually trying to provide opposition to the Tories.

BabyCheeses

When a LePen is trying to distance themselves from the family project you know the brand must be toxic.

Leonard Hofstadter

BabyCheeses wrote: »

When a LePen is trying to distance themselves from the family project you know the brand must be toxic.

Surely given how well known Marine is the French will see right through this? It smacks of desperation on her part to be honest.

ambro25

Rjd2 wrote: »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/marine-le-pen-france-jews-nazis-not-responsible-second-world-war-concentration-camps-death-francois-a7675791.html

That was one of the keys mistakes Le Pen made in last few weeks. A horrific comment which reminded everyone of their past and how disgusting her father was. I recall thinking Philippot was probably watching that thinking WTF.

When BabyCheeses was talking about the 'family project' above'?

Dropping a mongo PR 'WTF' clanger is standard LePen operating procedure, when in danger of actually winning an election "that matters" and being placed in a position of having to deliver on promises/policies.

Learnt from her Dad, religiously followed, and I fully expect Marion to continue the family tradition in due course, after she succeeds Marine in the exact same Brutus-like fashion.

Check the past 35 years' worth of French politics for JMLP's record, and the past 10 for MLP: perma-MEP/MP at the most, and party leader always; high enough to be quasi-untouchable, peddle influence and palp, low enough to never having to actually deliver nor worry the real movers and shakers (who know the score just fine).

iroced

Rjd2 wrote: »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/marine-le-pen-france-jews-nazis-not-responsible-second-world-war-concentration-camps-death-francois-a7675791.html

That was one of the keys mistakes Le Pen made in last few weeks. A horrific comment which reminded everyone of their past and how disgusting her father was. I recall thinking Philippot was probably watching that thinking WTF.

I dunno if would be the man to replace either Le Pen going forward however, he probably is not as extreme but like Marine, not a lot of charisma there.

Yeah, some political analysts argue that it was a deliberate move not to be in charge. She apparently made similar declarations back in 2012. I don't know.

Anyway, the timing was certainly wrong. Now, if you ignore her father's past comments about it and accept to be very precise with the wording, what she said is not essentially wrong. She's representing a growing part of French people that are getting very tired of having to apologise for what some nasty people did in our past. Vichy governement was responsible for sure. The French milicia were a barbarian shame and are an indelible stain in our History. France? What about De Gaulle? What about the resistance? What about the many many people who died for saving the people (not only jews) the nazis wanted annihilated? In a way, you could say that France as a country is a lot more responsible for colonialism and for example what happened in the Algerian war (something we don't yet learn at schoo -
too recent -) France would have a lot more to be ashamed of.

Kitsunegari wrote: »

It's probably a smart move by Le Pen. She'll have to go more towards the middle ground on some issues if she wants to get elected. Macron is a very vague and ambiguous candidate that will be badly exposed in the next two weeks. The only thing going for him is that he isn't Le Pen which seems to be working at the minute but if Le Pen can tap into the middle ground more she has a great chance of winning.

Fortunately for Macron her hardline stance on most issues won't change which will give her little chance but whatever the result of the election we will have a very divided France. It's very hard to see Macron being able to speak to the dissenters being an 'elitist groomed' investment banker and Marie Le Pen has already alienated a high percentage of the French vote already.

Thing is whoever will be French president will now have a very small majority. French people are righfully disillusioned about politics after the last 35 years we experienced. And this first round speaked for itself. 4 parties around 20%. And you could add a 5th (the number 1 actually => http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html - compare the "% inscrits" = "% registered"): abstention. That sums it all.

Christy42

iroced wrote: »

Yeah, some political analysts argue that it was a deliberate move not to be in charge. She apparently made similar declarations back in 2012. I don't know.

Anyway, the timing was certainly wrong. Now, if you ignore her father's past comments about it and accept to be very precise with the wording, what she said is not essentially wrong. She's representing a growing part of French people that are getting very tired of having to apologise for what some nasty people did in our past. Vichy governement was responsible for sure. The French milicia were a barbarian shame and are an indelible stain in our History. France? What about De Gaulle? What about the resistance? What about the many many people who died for saving the people (not only jews) the nazis wanted annihilated? In a way, you could say that France as a country is a lot more responsible for colonialism and for example what happened in the Algerian war (something we don't yet learn at schoo -
too recent -) France would have a lot more to be ashamed of.



Thing is whoever will be French president will now have a very small majority. French people are righfully disillusioned about politics after the last 35 years we experienced. And this first round speaked for itself. 4 parties around 20%. And you could add a 5th (the number 1 actually => http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html - compare the "% inscrits" = "% registered"): abstention. That sums it all.

You seem to be expecting LePen to make up a lot of ground pretty quickly which might not happen.

The French and others should learn about whst they did wrong as imperial nations. They should should also learn about the heroics from the French resistance. That is no need to deny that there were also some who did horrible things in the war. You can learn about multiple things in school and denying some of the wrongs does not help celebrate those who did good. If anything it belittles what they went against and how easy it would have been to step in line.

ambro25

Christy42 wrote: »

The French and others should learn about whst they did wrong as imperial nations. They should should also learn about the heroics from the French resistance.

Unless the national curriculum has changed 'for the worse' since the 80s (when I was going through the educational system there as a pupil), French kids have long learned both sides of that particular period: the Vichy collaborationist side, with Pétain, Laval, la Milice, la rafle du Vel' d'Hiv <etc.> and the Resistance side, with De Gaulle, the 18 June call, Jean Moulin, le Maquis <etc.>.

What may still not be taught much (if at all: it certainly wasn't much at all in the 80s, perhaps a 5-minutes passing mention at the most, and I was schooled in the very area), however, is what happened to Alsace-Moselle between 1940 and end 1944/early 1945 and the story of the Malgré Nous.

That portion was not occupied France administered by Vichy. It was reintegrated to the 3rd Reich. With the expected legal consequences as regards one's faith and duties owed the 'State'...notably as regards conscription. There were a lot of Mosellans and Alsatians in the Waffen SS. Few were there by free choice or belief, as it was a relatively simple quandary: integrate, or see your family deported to a work camp if you dodge. I don't need to add much about what happened to them at the end of the war, needless to say few survived combat and (for the majority of them sent East) Russian captivity.

But perhaps you'll want to look into how the French State treated the few that survived thereafter, as well as the returnee refugees (those summarily kicked out of the area by the Germans in 1940 as being 'too French', ending up as refugees in Lozère and enjoying such amicable reception locally as being called 'boches' and 'schleus' for most of the war).

The problem at the ballot box nowadays, whether in France or elsewhere for that matter, is that too few of that generation now remains, and ever less of them as each year goes by.

Bob24

So the first polls established after the first round results were known seem to agree the current balance of power is around 60% for Macron and 40% for Le Pen.

http://opinionlab.opinion-way.com/opinionlab/832/627/presitrack.html
http://www.parismatch.com/La-presidentielle-en-temps-reel

Also the first link has an interesting section at the bottom ("Les reports de voix"): if you click on the picture of one of the first round candidate it will show you what people who said they voted for that candidate in the first round are planning to vote in the second round.

You can see how Mélanchon and Fillon's voters disgusted at the second round option (for different reasons) as in both cases circa 30% are planning not to vote at all. And it is not necessarily a surprise but the best sources for vote for Le Pen are Fillon's electorate followed by Mélanchon's.
Also noteworthy is that there is not a single first round candidate from which Le Pen is currently draining more votes that Macron so mechanically unless this changes she is bound to lose (but having said that she is doing a lot better than her father in 2002 who pretty much didn't gain a signle vote from the first round to the second one which from her perspective is probably a good sign for 2022).

Also, I am wondering the rational for 2% first round Macron voters who intend to go to Le Pen, and 2% of Le Pen voters who intend to go to Macron. I know it is a small proportion but how can you jump between candidates which are pretty much the exact opposite of each other on every topic :-D

iroced

Christy42 wrote: »

You seem to be expecting LePen to make up a lot of ground pretty quickly which might not happen.

. Euh... No. I said the opposite twice if memory serves me right.

Christy42 wrote: »

The French and others should learn about whst they did wrong as imperial nations. They should should also learn about the heroics from the French resistance. That is no need to deny that there were also some who did horrible things in the war. You can learn about multiple things in school and denying some of the wrongs does not help celebrate those who did good. If anything it belittles what they went against and how easy it would have been to step in line.

Yes. That's what I implied. That's what we learn at school. Very very clearly. Maybe a bit too manichaeismally admittedly. We also learn to clearly name things and not to amalgamate.

So. What I don't get is the media continuously asking FN about this. I guess they expect some borderline comments to go against them. Well this is not working anymore now. Not with Marine. She's cleverer than her father with the media. There are more and more people in France tired of this "France responsible for blahblahblah" when they just feel like they're suffering from decisions taken abroad. So if anything, Marine Le Pen claiming "France is not responsible, it's the people who represented (even very partly) the country back then (implying not her, not the true patriots she thinks she represents, not the true lovers of our country) who are" will only bring more people to her. Not the people you hear in the media of course. More and more of the people that "we" never talk about.

If you want to attack (politically speaking I mean) FN, I think it's better to do it on their program. Not on their borderline comments.

It was the same when Macron condemned France role in slavery. No matter how right or wrong that comment was, we lost a week in useless debates between people accepting the blame and people being tired of blaming France another time. Again we learn it very clearly at school.

My point is. Was it a needed topic in this presidential campaign? France role in Shoah and slavery? Is France such an anti-Semitic and proslavery country that these 2 points should be part of the presidential campaign?. No. A thousand times no. There are 3 main problems in France:
- unemployment,
- the growing communautarianism,
- islamist terrorism.
We heard a lot about the latter one. We hardly speak about the second one. And I'd have liked our candidates to talk a lot more about the first one.

Alas, the campaign was mostly about the affairs (but it was normal we talked about it), the punchlines and the borderline comments.

Christy42

iroced wrote: »

. Euh... No. I said the opposite twice if memory serves me right.


Yes. That's what I implied. That's what we learn at school. Very very clearly. Maybe a bit too manichaeismally admittedly. We also learn to clearly name things and not to amalgamate.

So. What I don't get is the media continuously asking FN about this. I guess they expect some borderline comments to go against them. Well this is not working anymore now. Not with Marine. She's cleverer than her father with the media. There are more and more people in France tired of this "France responsible for blahblahblah" when they just feel like they're suffering from decisions taken abroad. So if anything, Marine Le Pen claiming "France is not responsible, it's the people who represented (even very partly) the country back then (implying not her, not the true patriots she thinks she represents, not the true lovers of our country) who are" will only bring more people to her. Not the people you hear in the media of course. More and more of the people that "we" never talk about.

If you want to attack (politically speaking I mean) FN, I think it's better to do it on their program. Not on their borderline comments.

It was the same when Macron condemned France role in slavery. No matter how right or wrong that comment was, we lost a week in useless debates between people accepting the blame and people being tired of blaming France another time. Again we learn it very clearly at school.

My point is. Was it a needed topic in this presidential campaign? France role in Shoah and slavery? Is France such an anti-Semitic and proslavery country that these 2 points should be part of the presidential campaign?. No. A thousand times no. There are 3 main problems in France:
- unemployment,
- the growing communautarianism,
- islamist terrorism.
We heard a lot about the latter one. We hardly speak about the second one. And I'd have liked our candidates to talk a lot more about the first one.

Alas, the campaign was mostly about the affairs (but it was normal we talked about it), the punchlines and the borderline comments.

You seemed to suggest the election will be close though? Maybe I misunderstood.

Of course the media keep asking. It is an instant headline grabber as they have a fair idea a major candidate will mess up the answer. She did not handle it well. I agree there are better ways to frame the request but the media were after headlines and they got it. She tried to dig her way into a no answer and dug down. Condemn, talk about the good works done by others and move on. She tried to dodge and failed.

Chuchote

Is France such an anti-semitic country that it should look back at the time when it sent hundreds of thousands of French people to the gas chambers? Well, from last year…

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/jews-are-leaving-france-in-record-numbers-amid-rising-anti-semitism-and-fears-of-more-isis-inspired-a6832391.html

Jews are leaving France in record numbers amid rising anti-Semitism and fears of more Isis-inspired terror attacks
More than 8,000 Jews left France for Israel in 2015 – a rate far higher than anywhere else in Europe but consistent with what over the past few years has become the largest mass movement of Jews since the formation of Israel in 1948.
The overriding reason Jews cite for leaving France as a steady rise in the rate of anti-Semitism over the past 15 years.
A 2013 EU poll found that 74% of French Jews are now so scared of being attacked for their religion that take steps to prevent themselves being identified as Jewish.

DeadHand

Chuchote wrote: »

Is France such an anti-semitic country that it should look back at the time when it sent hundreds of thousands of French people to the gas chambers? Well, from last year…

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/jews-are-leaving-france-in-record-numbers-amid-rising-anti-semitism-and-fears-of-more-isis-inspired-a6832391.html

True enough- it's a pattern repeated in all over Europe.

But the greater part of the threat that has French Jews fleeing isn't from the indigenous French-it's from sections of France's burgeoning Muslim population. Ancient communities are being rooted out by attacks and intimidation in a modern day ethnic cleansing somehow mostly ignored by the MSM and utterly ignored by the European Left - normally so voracious in the protection of minorities (but only favoured minorities, see).

The Jewish population has already been more than decimated in the Muslim world, as Europe is Islamified the Jewish population dwindles here too. They are running out of places of refuge as Islam spreads on the back of non integration, neo liberalism and the counterfeit "refugee" crisis.

Ironically, given the anti-Semitic origins of the FN, a Le Pen presidency could be one of the few things that could save France's Jews from further severe reduction if it does curb mass Islamic immigration and tackle Islamism as promised.

Rjd2

Antisemitism does not come solely from the right anymore and France is no exception. Melenchon has also been accused of it.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/228457

Le Pen from what I known was trying to reach out to Jews previously, but recently she has not been able to keep a lid on her own antisemitism as some of her recent comments have proved.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting contrast between French voters in Ireland and UK:

Ireland:
Macron 45%
M?lenchon 19%
Fillon 15%
Hamon 11.5%
Le Pen 4%

UK:
Macron 51%
Fillon 24%
M?lenchon 12%
Hamon 7%
Le Pen 3%

Bob24

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting contrast between French voters in Ireland and UK:

Ireland:
Macron 45%
M?lenchon 19%
Fillon 15%
Hamon 11.5%
Le Pen 4%

UK:
Macron 51%
Fillon 24%
M?lenchon 12%
Hamon 7%
Le Pen 3%

Basically, expatriate French investment bankers live in the UK, not in Ireland ;-) (of course what I said is intentionally a bit of quick generalisation, but I think it sums it up: the many French people working in business and Finance related jobs in the UK are pushing the economic cursor of the electorate towards the more economically liberal candidates)

ambro25

Rather than financiers and business types, I think, for French people in the UK, that living at the Brexit coalface for the past 10 months might have had something to do with picking the only 'pro-' pro-EU candidate, tbh.

Calina

ambro25 wrote: »

Rather than financiers and business types, I think, for French people in the UK, that living at the Brexit coalface for the past 10 months might have had something to do with picking the only 'pro-' pro-EU candidate, tbh.

Would add that there may be a disproportionately higher number of Bretons in Ireland which might account for the higher showing of Melenchon. He did comparatively well there, particular in Brest area.

An Ciarraioch

Calina wrote: »

Would add that there may be a disproportionately higher number of Bretons in Ireland which might account for the higher showing of Melenchon. He did comparatively well there, particular in Brest area.

Interesting - the Celtic connection, presumably? It was a Breton, Yann Goulet, who designed the Ballyseedy monument, but let's just say we won't mention what he did in the war!

iroced

Christy42 wrote: »

You seemed to suggest the election will be close though? Maybe I misunderstood.

No. I may not have expressed myself well enough .

Chuchote wrote: »

Is France such an anti-semitic country that it should look back at the time when it sent hundreds of thousands of French people to the gas chambers? Well, from last year…

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/jews-are-leaving-france-in-record-numbers-amid-rising-anti-semitism-and-fears-of-more-isis-inspired-a6832391.html

There's a bit of an exaggerated mediatic reaction about it though. France is getting more communautarianistic than ever. Many people shut themselves away from what we really are, a society where one is first French and then expresses his attachment to his local culture, language, religion, etc... Now, in some places, it has become the opposite. So they gather more than ever towards their own community. The whole anti-semitic fuss the media have been relating lately is mainly expressed on the social networks and/or by radical small parties that represent no one.
Then there's DAESH islamist terrorism. But it does not exclusively attack jews. The first victims are the Muslim Syrians who don't agree with them. And in France, everyone is concerned. Our way of living, our freedom of thoughts, our secularity we are so much attached to is an insult for them.
So, I feel the jews who are leaving France thinking they'll find a better land in Israel, where there's some kinda unofficial war with Palestine for 70+ years, are being a bit abused.

DeadHand wrote: »

True enough- it's a pattern repeated in all over Europe.

But the greater part of the threat that has French Jews fleeing isn't from the indigenous French-it's from sections of France's burgeoning Muslim population. Ancient communities are being rooted out by attacks and intimidation in a modern day ethnic cleansing somehow mostly ignored by the MSM and utterly ignored by the European Left - normally so voracious in the protection of minorities (but only favoured minorities, see).

The Jewish population has already been more than decimated in the Muslim world, as Europe is Islamified the Jewish population dwindles here too. They are running out of places of refuge as Islam spreads on the back of non integration, neo liberalism and the counterfeit "refugee" crisis.

Ironically, given the anti-Semitic origins of the FN, a Le Pen presidency could be one of the few things that could save France's Jews from further severe reduction if it does curb mass Islamic immigration and tackle Islamism as promised.

In France, there is very little problem with the true Muslims. The suburbs scums we have problems with for a few decades now are as muslim as I am the Pope. They don't speak nor understand nor read arabic. They don't know the Koran at all. They're just a bunch of **** who like causing trouble. The problem is for ages the authority were too lenient with them, not to be accused of discrimination. They were also protected by SOS Racisme and the LICRA (league against racism and antisemitism) among other associations. Politicians (from every party) gave up on these areas. And slowly but surely communautarianism grew... Some politicians even dealt with some of these community leaders to reign longer "vote for me and I'll turn a blind eye on some of your trafic". All this combined lead to the current chaos in some places where the policemen don't even dare going. And helped building communities against each other up to the point of no return we seem so close to reach (or maybe we've already reached it).

In addition, Islam was never integrated and controlled like the other religions. So we did not look at what was being done in the mosques. How easy for the radical islamists to implement their nasty ideas into the mind of the easy "preys" of the suburbs.

demfad

iroced wrote: »

... there is very little problem with the true Muslims. The suburbs scums we have problems with for a few decades now are as muslim as I am the Pope. They don't speak nor understand nor read arabic. They don't know the Koran at all. They're just a bunch of **** who like causing trouble. The problem is for ages the authority were too lenient with them, not to be accused of discrimination. They were also protected by SOS Racisme and the LICRA (league against racism and antisemitism) among other associations. Politicians (from every party) gave up on these areas. And slowly but surely communautarianism grew... Some politicians even dealt with some of these community leaders to reign longer "vote for me and I'll turn a blind eye on some of your traffic". All this combined lead to the current chaos in some places where the policemen don't even dare going. And helped building communities against each other up to the point of no return we seem so close to reach (or maybe we've already reached it).

In addition, Islam was never integrated and controlled like the other religions. So we did not look at what was being done in the mosques. How easy for the radical islamists to implement their nasty ideas into the mind of the easy "preys" of the suburbs.

Yet, Le Pen received less than 5% of the vote in Paris. It seemed she did well in very 'white' areas of the country. This trend holds true in the US also. Ethno nationalism doesn't do well in big cities where everyone lives together. It only does well in places where there is little understanding of immigrants or (non-white) descendants of immigrants.

It strikes me that the issues we see here about rural decline, post offices closing, quality of life etc etc are not too dissimilar to other countries like France. Here we can't blame immigrants. In France, the US and the UK populists can jump in and blame them for problems very with different causes.

ambro25

Macron looks to be targeting some FN/harder right votes, after all:

Emmanuel Macron, the centrist candidate for the French presidency, followed up last night by pledging to renegotiate the Franco-British treaty that retains migrants in Calais if he becomes head of state.

<source>