The Next President of France will be...

Bob24

ambro25 wrote: »

Macron looks to be targeting some FN/harder right votes, after all:

<source>

A majority of the electorate (including most of the conservative right and some of the left) has issues with that treaty. Not really targetting FN voters there (realistically Le Pen voters won't got to Macron than Macron voters will go to Le Pen so chasing each other's core electorate is a waste of time for both of them) .. more like the ones of Fillon and possibly Mélanchon who find Macron too liberal.

I think one other topic on which he will have to soften is stance is the "travailleurs détachés" issue which has became a thing in France and on which he was the only one out of 11 at the TV debates to say he is fully happy with the status-quo.

An Ciarraioch

Le Pen's stand-in has been forced to resign after making comments about Nazi gas chambers - one suspects the gap, which had been narrowing, will now go back to 65-35 again, with Fillon supporters growing cool on the FN.

Rjd2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Le Pen's stand-in has been forced to resign after making comments about Nazi gas chambers - one suspects the gap, which had been narrowing, will now go back to 65-35 again, with Fillon supporters growing cool on the FN.

FFS, how unprofessional are this mob?

Surely they can find someone with a spotless background? Its only for a few weeks anyhow this position. :pac:

Christy42

Rjd2 wrote: »

FFS, how unprofessional are this mob?

Surely they can find someone with a spotless background? Its only for a few weeks anyhow this position. :pac:

It is a big point for me that around the world they can't get people with a half decent backround. (I mean parties like these). I see all sorts of points saying they agree with these people on maybe one issue partially and ignore the rest but I always see the lack of people exposing these positions in public who are also capable of not having entirely ridiculous statements and extreme opinions on other things.

Zubeneschamali

Rjd2 wrote: »

Surely they can find someone with a spotless background?

Like the Gestapo guy in the movies who hates the SS? Or is it the Luftwaffe guy who hates the Gestapo? The army Leutnant who hates the Party? Hard to keep them straight.

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/dupontaignan?lang=en

Dupont is backing Le Pen. Unlikely to be that much of a game changer, but definitely needed after the above disaster.

Bayrou is seething.:pac:

https://twitter.com/bayrou/status/858023211744854016

Chuchote

Three Résistants and concentration camp victims have come out with a warning against the danger of the far right

http://archyworldys.com/former-resistance-fighters-and-deportees-warn-against-the-deadly-risk-to-the-far-right/

http://www.liberation.fr/france/2017/04/30/eviter-le-risque-mortel-de-l-extreme-droite_1566410

An Ciarraioch

The latest Opinion Way poll shows Macron clawing back two points to move up to 61% - M?lenchon's supporters will publish the result of their consultation tomorrow, which should reduce their abstention levels (currently in the mid-forties).

Bob24

Interesting poll here with more questions that what is usually published for those who can read French: http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/05/01/35003-20170501ARTFIG00128-emmanuel-macron-reste-largement-favori-au-second-tour.php

The fact that 53% say they will not vote for Le Pen under any circumstance shows how difficult it would be for her to get elected (though not impossible as not voting for her doesn't mean voting for Macron and technically if a large chunk of these 53% chose not to vote for anyone she could still get elected). Macron is of course not in the same situation but still strong rejection exists towards him with 32% saying they will not vote for him no matter what.

Macron is also doing pretty well here with certainty of choice at 90%, ahead of Le Pen at 84%.

But what is worrying for him going forward assuming he gets elected is that only 36% of those who say they will vote for him will do it because they support him, and the other 64% say it is just a way to avoid Le Pen getting elected (i.e. he hasn't really convinced any new voter beyond his support group from the first round and it will be very hard for him to get a clear majority and run the country with low support from the start of his presidency). Comparatifely 53% of those who intend to vote for Le Pen say it is because they support her, and 47% see it as a way of avoiding Macron so while she does fairly better still her voters are not overly enthusiastic either and rejection of Macron is a large enough driver for her votes.

Extremely divided electorate ...

Rjd2

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/01/marine-le-pen-front-national-upbeat-leftwing-lethargy-french-elections

Yeah I think its only in the last week or so, many people especially on the left are really examining Macron and are unimpressed.

Le Pen is still likely to lose, but if she passes 40% on Sunday it will be a sad day for France, Macron has got to deliver as populism whether left or right will look even more attractive in 2022.

No pressure:pac:

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

Yeah I think its only in the last week or so, many people especially on the left are really examining Macron and are unimpressed.

For different reasons but the same also exists within Fillon's voters (as opposed to Mélanchon's voters they have no issues with his economic liberalisation agenda and planned spending cuts - they even would like to see more - but they elected Fillon and kicked out Juppé at the primary election because they wanted someone less internationalist and socially more conservative, and from that aspect Macron is even worse to them).

Rjd2

Reading the guardian tonight lads:pac:

The below article is okish, but to be fair I think a lot of people especially on the left will look at Macron and feel somewhat duped at their choices on Sunday.

I had lunch in a Parisian cafe recently with a journalist who had spent the whole French presidential campaign vilifying the leftwing candidate Jean-Luc M?lenchon and trumpeting the merits of the centrist Emmanuel Macron in the columns of a respected (if declining) centre-left weekly.


I asked him if had there been a deliberate effort among intellectuals and mainstream politicians to engineer a run-off between Macron and the far-right Marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential election. ?Why, of course,? he laughed. ?We?ve been at it for a year.? Considering how obvious the strategy had been, I cannot claim to have revealed much of a secret. Still, it?s nice to know I was not being paranoid.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/01/emmanuel-macron-french-voters-marine-le-pen

An Ciarraioch

From an Irish perspective, the real concern won't end until the Assembly elections are over - the Republicans may well prove able to limit FN seats on the right, but would a strong performance by France Insoumise really indicate a desire to quit the euro, or will social issues be the main driver?

Rjd2

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/05/01/a-villepinte-marine-le-pen-reprend-des-passages-entiers-d-un-discours-de-francois-fillon_5120626_4854003.html


Top stuff Marine.:pac:

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/05/01/a-villepinte-marine-le-pen-reprend-des-passages-entiers-d-un-discours-de-francois-fillon_5120626_4854003.html


Top stuff Marine.:pac:

Fairly decent speech though ;-)

And seriously, I still don't know whether it was a very dumb or a very smart move.

Quite possibly it is due to a lazy (and stupid) advisor who thought it would do the trick and get unnoticed (i.e. very amateurish from the bottom to the top of the command chain). But I also wonder whether it was possibly done on purpose to get Fillon's voters thinking that after all there is not much difference between her and him (knowing that Macron's supporters would pick it up and make fun of it - spreading the word - but what the hell they won't vote for her anyway and that buzz with the media saying she is now saying the same things as Fillon could be a good thing to attract more of his voters which she badly needs at the moment). That, would be very smart political strategy.

demfad

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/01/marine-le-pen-front-national-upbeat-leftwing-lethargy-french-elections

Yeah I think its only in the last week or so, many people especially on the left are really examining Macron and are unimpressed.

Le Pen is still likely to lose, but if she passes 40% on Sunday it will be a sad day for France, Macron has got to deliver as populism whether left or right will look even more attractive in 2022.

No pressure:pac:

I think the world political situation will be more balanced in 2022.
Russia and their ability to interfere in elections will be pacified and Syria should be diffused (related). I also see Trump not seeing his full term and retiring/impeachment in an extreme scandal (also related)
The populists that the FN aligned themselves with will be severely discredited and the excuses (identity, refugees) wont be as strong. There will still be inequality and this needs to be addressed.
Global Finance, western corporate/political corruption, fair trade. The EU is the best vehicle to lead in the post Trump age. Macron needs to make his mark there.

Valord

Rjd2 wrote: »

Le Pen is still likely to lose, but if she passes 40% on Sunday it will be a sad day for France, Macron has got to deliver as populism whether left or right will look even more attractive in 2022.

Not that I have any real data to support this but I really imagine it won't be. I think it's already on a downward trend and that if LePen could have chosen a time for an election, the iron would have been hottest in late 2015 or early 2016. Since then we've had Wilders underperform at the Dutch elections (especially relative to early polling), had Austria reject a populist president by a larger margin on a second vote and had the far-right fall apart to a large extent in Germany. If LePen underperforms in a few days, the real last stand for the foreseeable future will be the Five Star Movement in Italy.

I expect the economy of Europe will recover further and the Syrian war will wind down, whether it goes back to Assad in control or someone else. ISIS is already in its death throes and much of their early appeal in radicalising young men was their apparent unstoppable power. Trump seems to be either jettisoning or getting stuck in the mud with most of his populist promises too (The Wall, Muslim ban, overturning Obamacare, protectionism). If his general incompetence continues and if there is an exodus of major financial power players from London following Brexit, the EU may start becoming more powerful. Eurozone unemployment is trending downward too, which reduces discontent in general: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/unemployment-rate

An Ciarraioch

Le Pen's currency plans seem to get barmier by the day - staying in the euro for international transactions, but the franc returns for domestic business? If anything, her core voters would be worst hit, with savings rapidly devaluing after the conversion.

Bob24

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Le Pen's currency plans seem to get barmier by the day - staying in the euro for international transactions, but the franc returns for domestic business? If anything, her core voters would be worst hit, with savings rapidly devaluing after the conversion.

It might change if she manages to attract a good chunk of Fillon's voters, but overall her core voter's group from the first round are those who don't have much assets and cash to lose.

For example, she is the top candidate for households with an income below 1250 euros per month as well as those in the 1250-2000 euros bracket, but she is only number 4 in the over 3000 euros category (which is unsurprisingly topped by Macron and then Fillon, but even Mélanchon scores better than her in this category).

demfad

Bob24 wrote: »

It might change if she manages to attract a good chunk of Fillon's voters, but overall her core voter's group from the first round are those who don't have much assets and cash.

For example, she is the top candidate for households with an income below 1250 euros per month as well as those in the 1250-2000 euros bracket, but she is only number 4 in the over 3000 euros category (which is unsurprisingly topped by Macron and then Fillon, but even Mélanchon scores better than her in this category).

Interesting. A way to stabilise a potentially populist situation is for the non-authoritarian President (Macron) to address the reasonable complaints of the poorest category. Addressing inequality takes away LePen's base and her ability to claim white supremacy as a solution. He will lose some of his wealthiest support but he could win a second term also as carrot.
Macron needs to address this at the EU level also. Being honest, EU inequality is easier addressed without the UK spanner in the works.

Bob24

demfad wrote: »

address the reasonable complaints of the poorest category

Of course everybody will agree this general statement make sense. But the word reasonable you wisely added there is where the hard work starts and when the real tough questions come into play: it is a matter of perception and the gap between what these voters see as reasonable asks and what people who vote for Macron (or some others) have considered reasonable requests has been widening for years. Hence this second round line-up with 2 candidates which are both pretty far from the ideological centre (and almost on exact opposite sides) as these 2 groups are drifting further and further away from each other (he got hidden on my screenshot, but the only candidate which could be described as somehow moderate was Jean Lassalle - whereas few years ago there would have been more of them including potential second round contenders).

demfad

Bob24 wrote: »

Of course everybody will agree this general statement make sense. But the word reasonable you wisely added there is where the hard work starts and when the real tough questions come into play: it is a matter of perception and the gap between what these voters see as reasonable asks and what people who vote for Macron (or some others) have considered reasonable requests has been widening for years.

Agreed. There is a problem in Western society that needs to be solved. Perhaps I should have emphasised the problem solving side of this over the 'reasonable' request fulfilment side.

This is not easy and perhaps a first step is to make changes so the State has the ability to solve these complex issues in future. Our own presidents idea of a role for Universities in idea and solution generation has merit.

My own (amateurs) view is that a capitalist Democracy has a cycle. For much of the cycle democracy works well for all. As the gap in inequality gets larger, democracy gets weaker and the potential for authoritarian rule/revolution grows.

The post war the west spent a long time in the cycle because of the existence of the Soviet Union. Nothing to do with its merits but the threat of communism means the wealthy and powerful had to concede social democracy.

To reverse the cycle we need a little more 21st century social democracy and a little less global finance. The EU is the place to lead on this now and Macron can influence without the UK.

The jury is out on him though. At least he is not LePen.

Edit:

Note LePen polled under 5% in Paris.

In these western countries there are 2 cultures: Liberal metropolitan and more homogenous smaller cities and rural.
Its solvable in that light. Fair Globalisation starting with Finance and fair trade should make local business more competitive.

Bob24

It is not just a matter of wealth redistribution though (although it is part of the divide). As you can see on the chart I posted the biggest gap between Macron and Le Pen is on isolationism/internationalism rather than state interventionism/liberalism. And if there was another axis to measure societal liberalism the gap would also be pretty large. Basically it is becoming a class struggle between a more wealthy urban cosmopolitan extended "elite" and the less wealthy more traditional masses of the country and small cities (I will agree in advance I am very much simplifying things here and not all Macron voters are rich while not all of Le Pen voters are poor).

Really a huge difference overall and not an easy one to address as at this stage I don't think any side is willing to compromise.

Calina

Is there an education attainment input here, Bob24?

Bob24

Didn't see one. Not exactly the same, but employment categories is the closest I saw:



Edit: actually I found the original PDF and it has it, see here: http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/ipsos-sopra-steria_sociologie-des-electorats_23-avril-2017-21h.pdf

Valord

Bob24 wrote: »

It might change if she manages to attract a good chunk of Fillon's voters, but overall her core voter's group from the first round are those who don't have much assets and cash to lose.

For example, she is the top candidate for households with an income below 1250 euros per month as well as those in the 1250-2000 euros bracket, but she is only number 4 in the over 3000 euros category (which is unsurprisingly topped by Macron and then Fillon, but even Mélanchon scores better than her in this category).

I'm surprised they stopped separating for those with an annual salary above €36,000. Are median wages really much lower than that in France?

Bob24

Valord wrote: »

I'm surprised they stopped separating for those with an annual salary above €36,000. Are median wages really much lower than that in France?

Seems like as per France's equivalent of the CSO the median monthly household income in 2016 was 1772 euros: https://fr.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revenu_fiscal_par_ménage_en_France

So with that in mind the spilt seems to make sense.

You might want to double-check what "revenu fiscal" is though, it might be computed differently from what the CSO looks at when they publish income figures which could explain why figures seem far off from Ireland.

An Ciarraioch

Saw on another forum that 36% of M?lenchon voters in the consultation have voted to spoil their ballot, 29% to abstain, with 35% opting for Macron. It shouldn't matter ultimately, but if there's a MLP presidency come Monday, they can share the blame with Fillon's LePenites.

Calina

Bob24 wrote: »

Edit: actually I found the original PDF and it has it, see here: http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/ipsos-sopra-steria_sociologie-des-electorats_23-avril-2017-21h.pdf

Looking at that it more or less backs up my thoughts - the lower your highest level of education the more likely you are to vote for Le Pen.

It really does suggest that one of the chief weapons against populism has to be education.

Rjd2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Saw on another forum that 36% of M?lenchon voters in the consultation have voted to spoil their ballot, 29% to abstain, with 35% opting for Macron. It shouldn't matter ultimately, but if there's a MLP presidency come Monday, they can share the blame with Fillon's LePenites.

Harsh:p

Macron has enough on his side,plenty of money, media coverage and a fascist as his opponent!

He'd have wanted to run v Le Pen, all blame on him if he loses.

Chuchote

Calina wrote: »

Looking at that it more or less backs up my thoughts - the lower your highest level of education the more likely you are to vote for Le Pen.

It really does suggest that one of the chief weapons against populism has to be education.

Or maybe it shows that desperate people are attracted to populism, and if there are no jobs for the working class they become desperate.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Saw on another forum that 36% of M?lenchon voters in the consultation have voted to spoil their ballot, 29% to abstain, with 35% opting for Macron. It shouldn't matter ultimately, but if there's a MLP presidency come Monday, they can share the blame with Fillon's LePenites.

And if there's a fascist presidency come Monday they can share the blame too.

Bob24

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Saw on another forum that 36% of M?lenchon voters in the consultation have voted to spoil their ballot, 29% to abstain, with 35% opting for Macron.

And that's because the option to vote for Le Pen was not on offer as Mélanchon didn't want to make it obvious that trend exists within his electorate. If offered it would have been picked by 15-20% of them.

But as Rjd2 said, if with all the positive media coverage he is getting compared to his opponent and the fact that all other major candidates either called to vote for him or didn't give instructions, Macron will be the only one responsible if he loses. No one else. He will most likely get away with it, but I actually find him to be behaving in a fairly self-centred way: in the last few days rather that trying to talk to voters who didn't pick him in the first round and offer some concessions to give them at least small reasons to vote for him (which he should do if he really thinks the situation would that dangerous in case Le Pen wins), he has spent his whole time essentially telling them: you have no choice to vote for me even if you completely disagree with me because otherwise you are electing a racist. No matter people's ideological opinions about the various contenders, from a political strategy's perspective we can probably all agree he is doing exactly what he should if he wanted to alienate them and make them feel they live in a parody of a democracy whereby only one vote is allowed with no way to influence what that vote means for future policies. Hence driving up abstention and protest vote.

CelticRambler

But isn't that what's plagued French politics for years - "small concessions" to swing a handful of votes to get one over the other guy? At the same time, those concessions alienate those who voted for the original programme, and are rarely enough to convince the hard-line version of whoever needs to be convinced.

What Macron has done - and it was pretty impressive - was to get and keep the main unions on his side despite MLP's antics at the Whirlpool site. I have no problem with him refusing to modify his manifesto - how could you trust a politician who says what he needs to say just to get extra votes?

This contest has shown up all the flaws of the two-round system, and it's disappointing that none of the candidates (or the media) is suggesting that it should be reformed in time for the 2022 election.

Bob24

Mind you I didn't say "small concessions" or that he should "say what he needs to say just to get extra votes".

He needs to accept is is very far from them ideologically and to make real commitments he genuinely intends to take action about to get closer to them (of course not going completely against his initial project but there are a few significant things he could work with).

I think what has plagued French politics really is that for various reasons presidents and governments have been trying to implement policies they never really got a mandate for (and I would absolutely agree sweet talks purely to get a few voters are one of the reasons: for exemple Hollande's high visibility promise of renegotiating the EU fiscal package with Merkel which was forgotten on the day after the election as it was simply not realistic given his reluctancy to engage in a confrontational manner, which is symbolic of the shift between his campaign promises and what he actually did while in office).

So yes if this is what he is doing Macron is right not to make promises he doesn't intend to keep.

Having say that, the reality is that with his current platform he only ge buyout of 20% of those who intent to vote on Sunday and even less if you take into account those who won't vote (out of the 60% who say they will vote for him, only one third say it is because they believe in him and the rest are saying it is just a way to get rid of Le Pen - and I know many people with various political views within my circle of friends and family who will vote for him but certainly don't intent to support him or give him a majority after the election).

If he doesn't manage to increase his support level he will indeed break his promises as he won't be able to implement them to to a large majority rejecting the policies (if he even has a clear majority to agree on them and vote for them), and do a Hollande who managed not only to be hated but people who don't think like hm, but also by the ones who think like him.


Basically what I am saying is that because he is facing an opponent which is extremely repulsive to a large part of the electorate, he is failing to acknowledge how very repulsive he is himself and to address that as he probably doesn't have to do so to be elected. This is a recipe for yet another unmanageable legislature ...

CelticRambler

But (as I've argued before) this low level of support has characterised all recent French presidential elections. The two-past-the-post system means that it doesn't really matter whether the "other" candidate is a moderate centrist or extreme-left/right, the winning candidate is rarely the first choice of more than a third of the electorate, and grudgingly accepted as a second choice by enough of the rest to scrape over the 50% threshold.

Now strange as it may seem - and although I would sack anyone who worked for me if I found out they'd voted FN :rolleyes: - at least there's a certain coherence in their deluded logic. I cannot, however, understand the attitude of so many Mélenchon supporters who say they're not going to vote. For a start, he wanted to make voting compulsory - so how can they justify not voting? And secondly, I've heard his student-followers going on about Macron's threat to their job security. They don't have any jobs? And they're not likely to get any in the near future if Macron doesn't bring in his "libéralisme" reforms and make it attractive for employers to create permanent jobs in this country.

Valord

Chuchote wrote: »

Or maybe it shows that desperate people are attracted to populism, and if there are no jobs for the working class they become desperate.

But keep in mind that while there is certainly a correlation between wealth and education, it's not 1:1. Studies of the US election after it happened showed that support for Donald Trump was much easier to predict based on education levels than it was based on income. In every income bracket, the trend was the same of less-educated people voting for him and more-educated voting for Clinton. So there could be some truth to Calina's hypothesis.

demfad

Bob24 wrote: »

And that's because the option to vote for Le Pen was not on offer as Mélanchon didn't want to make it obvious that trend exists within his electorate. If offered it would have been picked by 15-20% of them.

But as Rjd2 said, if with all the positive media coverage he is getting compared to his opponent and the fact that all other major candidates either called to vote for him or didn't give instructions, Macron will be the only one responsible if he loses. No one else.

Macron is getting hamerred by Russian propaganda and fake news. This is especially the case on French social media where there is a storm of negative publicity against him.

If he loses this election it will have little to do with his merits of her faults but how much lies the French people swallow from Vladimir Putin.

After this election it really is time to tackle this tyrant who as well as oppressing his own people seems to be determined to bring down democracy to help his authoritarian cause.

Bob24

demfad wrote: »

Macron is getting hamerred by Russian propaganda and fake news. This is especially the case on French social media where there is a storm of negative publicity against him.

If he loses this election it will have little to do with his merits of her faults but how much lies the French people swallow from Vladimir Putin.

After this election it really is time to tackle this tyrant who as well as oppressing his own people seems to be determined to bring down democracy to help his authoritarian cause.

Frankly, good old Vladimir has been a convenient excuse for a lot of politicians in the past few years. Not saying there is no Russian propaganda at play (mind you there is also counter-propagenda the other way - this is how the world works), but with pretty much all French media portraying Macron in a more positive way than Le Pen and the fact that most of them call for a Macron vote or say nothing while none is callign for a Le Pen vote, if he loses it will be completely up to him.
If you look at Trump or Brexit, there were some national media clearly making a call on their side ... here Macron has nothing against him.

ongarite

Bob24 wrote: »

Frankly, good old Vladimir has been a convenient excuse for a lot of politicians in the past few years. Not saying there is no Russian propaganda at play (mind you there is also counter-propagenda the other way - this is how the world works), but with pretty much all French media portraying Macron in a more positive way than Le Pen and the fact that most of them call for a Macron vote or say nothing while none is callign for a Le Pen vote, if he loses it will be completely up to him.
If you look at Trump or Brexit, there were some national media clearly making a call on their side ... here Macron has nothing against him.

Good article linked from Twitter this morning on Le Pen's money links to the Russians:
https://en.rebaltica.lv/2017/05/latvian-financier-said-to-act-as-a-go-between-to-get-russian-loan-for-le-pen/

A Latvian-based consultant, who has managed offshores for the wealthy and politically influential in Russia, has emerged as an intermediary in helping arrange a Russian loan for the political party of Marine Le Pen, one of two candidates vying for France’s highest political office.


Vilis Dambiņš, a director of an intermediary company managing assets related to the family of Vladimir Putin’s special representative for relations with Russian organisations abroad Alexander Babakov, has personally met with at least two high-ranking officials of Le Pen’s Front National (FN) to discuss options for the party to get a Russian loan, a joint investigation by the Baltic center of investigative journalism Re:Baltica and French online investigative journal Mediapart.fr has found.

Rightwing

demfad wrote: »

Macron is getting hamerred by Russian propaganda and fake news. This is especially the case on French social media where there is a storm of negative publicity against him.

If he loses this election it will have little to do with his merits of her faults but how much lies the French people swallow from Vladimir Putin.

After this election it really is time to tackle this tyrant who as well as oppressing his own people seems to be determined to bring down democracy to help his authoritarian cause.

Are the elites getting excuses ready? There will be no need. Rightwing has a nice bet to collect here.

Education has nothing to do with populism. Lack of opportunity does. Let everyone get a PhD, and if they can't get a job, they will vote for change....any change. Globalisation has failed people, and that's why some of them want change.

whatstherush

Rightwing wrote: »

There will be no need. Rightwing has a nice bet to collect here.
.

Haha good man, like you were on night of Brexit, when you thought remain would win.

Rightwing wrote: »

£ and futures rocketing. Easy pickings this one was.

Hard to know if that incident last week turned it.

And no I didn't search your post history, your particular hubris on that night and your constant harping on about how you'll make money on every world event stick out like a sore tumb. Truth is you haven't got a fúcking clue.

demfad

Rightwing wrote: »

Are the elites getting excuses ready? There will be no need. Rightwing has a nice bet to collect here.

Education has nothing to do with populism. Lack of opportunity does. Let everyone get a PhD, and if they can't get a job, they will vote for change....any change. Globalisation has failed people, and that's why some of them want change.

Reminder: LePen got less than 5% in Paris with some of the poorest areas in France.

Bob24

CelticRambler wrote: »

But (as I've argued before) this low level of support has characterised all recent French presidential elections. The two-past-the-post system means that it doesn't really matter whether the "other" candidate is a moderate centrist or extreme-left/right, the winning candidate is rarely the first choice of more than a third of the electorate, and grudgingly accepted as a second choice by enough of the rest to scrape over the 50% threshold.

Never that low. Even Hollande in 2012 which was in good part elected because voters wanted to get rid of Sarkozy had a higher level of genuine support within his voters than Macron has today.

And while he disappointed afterwards Sarkozy did have a strong level of support for his platform within his second round electorate in 2007 (it was clearly designed to please both FN and UMP voters).

Rightwing

demfad wrote: »

Reminder: LePen got less than 5% in Paris with some of the poorest areas in France.

Those losers probably voted for the other loose cannon.

demfad

Bob24 wrote: »

Frankly, good old Vladimir has been a convenient excuse for a lot of politicians in the past few years. Not saying there is no Russian propaganda at play (mind you there is also counter-propagenda the other way - this is how the world works), but with pretty much all French media portraying Macron in a more positive way than Le Pen and the fact that most of them call for a Macron vote or say nothing while none is callign for a Le Pen vote, if he loses it will be completely up to him.
If you look at Trump or Brexit, there were some national media clearly making a call on their side ... here Macron has nothing against him.

Just to repeat. It has been confirmed that Russia has interfered in this election with hacking and fake news to a very large degree. Your statement that most media is pro Macron is erroneous. Social media is vastly pro LePen and far more people get informed through it and through traditional sources these days. Its not about excuses. Its about electorates being subject to a barrage of lies put there by a foreign hostile power: this is not democracy, it is a subversion of democracy.
If you think Russian interference in elections is just an excuse, you need to inform yourself more. There is no counter propaganda pro Macron in any similar measure and none by a foreign power.

demfad

Rightwing wrote: »

Those losers probably voted for the other loose cannon.

Do you expect a serious reply to this nonsense post?

Bob24

demfad wrote: »

Reminder: LePen got less than 5% in Paris with some of the poorest areas in France.

That's a bit of a myth. See the various French départements (counties) ranked by GDP per capita: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_des_d%C3%A9partements_fran%C3%A7ais_class%C3%A9s_par_produit_int%C3%A9rieur_brut_par_habitant

Paris and all the surrounding ones are all around the top. Even a place like Seine-Saint-Denis which would be considered the poorest Parisian suburb ranks 15 out of 96.

Rightwing

demfad wrote: »

Do you expect a serious reply to this nonsense post?

No, because let's face it, you are snookered.

CelticRambler

Bob24 wrote: »

And while he disappointed afterwards Sarkozy did have a strong level of support for his platform within his second round electorate in 2007 (it was clearly designed to please both FN and UMP voters).

Second round - that's my point. He produced a revised programme to get himself elected, but actually got very little done afterwards, because he didn't have that support from the start - only 31.2% of the electorate in the first round.

French voters aren't allowed have a second choice, only the pick of the two least unpopular candidates, which is not good for economic development. If you look at other countries and their post-crash performance, those with some kind of PR and multi-party coalitions (even Ireland) are doing a lot better than those with binary systems. Where there's no tradition of compromise, it's very hard to get anything done.

Chips Lovell

Any more personal sniping and we'll have to issue cards.