The Next President of France will be...

Christy42

Rightwing wrote: »

Those losers probably voted for the other loose cannon.

If you have facts to support your hypothesis then feel free to share. Till then it is your mere feeling about the situation (which the facts at present disagree with by the way).

I go with the facts. Not what someone thinks is the case.

Rightwing

Christy42 wrote: »

If you have facts to support your hypothesis then feel free to share. Till then it is your mere feeling about the situation (which the facts at present disagree with by the way).

I go with the facts. Not what someone thinks is the case.

Present your facts and we can scrutinise them. Until then, I am more than content with my feeling.

demfad

CelticRambler wrote: »

Second round - that's my point. He produced a revised programme to get himself elected, but actually got very little done afterwards, because he didn't have that support from the start - only 31.2% of the electorate in the first round.

French voters aren't allowed have a second choice, only the pick of the two least unpopular candidates, which is not good for economic development. If you look at other countries and their post-crash performance, those with some kind of PR and multi-party coalitions (even Ireland) are doing a lot better than those with binary systems. Where there's no tradition of compromise, it's very hard to get anything done.

With coalition, self (mutual) policing is inbuilt so poor policy or corruption is lessened.

Christy42

Bob24 wrote: »

Didn't see one. Not exactly the same, but employment categories is the closest I saw:



Edit: actually I found the original PDF and it has it, see here: http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/ipsos-sopra-steria_sociologie-des-electorats_23-avril-2017-21h.pdf

Quoting this as Rightwing asked for some facts repeated. Also note the difficulty she faced in Paris (which is not all wealthy people ) as pointed out by demfad.

Rightwing

Christy42 wrote: »

Quoting this as Rightwing asked for some facts repeated. Also note the difficulty she faced in Paris (which is not all wealthy people ) as pointed out by demfad.

And that confirms just what I said.

Case closed.

Bob24

Christy42 wrote: »

Also note the difficulty she faced in Paris (which is not all wealthy people ) as pointed out by demfad.

Again overall the wealth level in ALL areas in Paris and around it is way higher than the national average. See my previous answer to demfad. Even the poorest department around Paris is in the top 15 out of 96 in terms of GDP per capita and most of the top spots are for Paris and surrounding areas.

There are definitely areas of Paris and its suburbs which are much less wealthy than others, but the large masses of less wealthy people than average really are in the rest of the country.

Christy42

Bob24 wrote: »

Again overall the wealth level in ALL areas in Paris and around it is way higher than the national average. See my previous answer to demfad. Even the poorest department around Paris is in the top 15 out of 96 in terms of GDP per capita and most of the top spots are for Paris and surrounding areas.

There are definitely areas of Paris and its suburbs which are much less wealthy than others, but the large masses of less wealthy people than average really are in the rest of the country.

Hmm can't find recent data on how much of Paris is below the poverty line so I will give that point. Out of interest do we have any data on how she did in those poor areas of Paris?

It does not change that the link seems to be with education though. Now it is heavily linked to wealth so she will score well in poorer areas but the point remains. Educate people and less will vote for her.

https://www.google.ie/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN17R1TA

At this point I am not really sure what Rightwing is on about or what they are replying to. It seems to be various sorts of claiming they won without actually making a point.

Rightwing

Christy42 wrote: »

Hmm can't find recent data on how much of Paris is below the poverty line so I will give that point. Out of interest do we have any data on how she did in those poor areas of Paris?

It does not change that the link seems to be with education though. Now it is heavily linked to wealth so she will score well in poorer areas but the point remains. Educate people and less will vote for her.

https://www.google.ie/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN17R1TA

At this point I am not really sure what Rightwing is on about or what they are replying to. It seems to be various sorts of claiming they won without actually making a point.

But it really doesn't.

You are inadvertently insulting millions of French people. Many of these will be highly educated, maybe even more so than your good self. Your analysis is far too simplistic.

Bob24

Christy42 wrote: »

It does not change that the link seems to be with education though. Now it is heavily linked to wealth so she will score well in poorer areas but the point remains. Educate people and less will vote for her.

Not as simple as that. Yes if you look at today's picture people with more degrees will tend to vote for her less. But is it because they are smarter or because they are not facing the real world problems she is talking about? (whether she is providing the right solutions is of course a different matter)

As a matter of fact, academic achievement is much higher in France today that it was 30 years ago and yet her party is doing much better.

Of course you can always educate people more and it will never by a bad thing, but the reality is that no society can function only with top-tier jobs as there simply aren't that many of them required so there will always be gaps. Hence a model of society shouldn't only carter for the most educated but also make the less educated ones feel like it can allow a decent life for them.

Also, when talking about these things it is always wise to differentiate the concepts of professional qualifications, degrees, education, and intelligence. Otherwise there is always a risk to be elitist and look down at some people. For example if I wanted to be provocative I could turn it around and say that because Macron's voters tend to be much younger that let's say Fillon (the other extreme), they are the ones who have the most limited political culture and the shortest real life experience so they don't know what they are voting for. Would it be fair? Not more or less than saying people vote Le Pen because they are less educated.

ancapailldorcha

Rightwing wrote: »

Those losers probably voted for the other loose cannon.

Enough of this low quality posting please.

Rjd2

Debate between the two of them fifteen minutes after the Monaco game starts.

Le Pen from what I seen in the first debate strikes me a pretty ineffective rambling dour debater, she needs a huge showing tonight to have any sort of chance on Sunday.

An Ciarraioch

And as you say, the Champions League tie limits your potential audience from the start - you'd certainly never see such scheduling from either RTE or the BBC!

Bob24

Yes to be honest polls seem to be fairly settled around 40/60 and unless one opponent is absolutely brilliant and the other one massively screws-up, I very much doubt a debate can turn-around 10% of the electorate (if any of them manages to gain 3-4% out of this it would already be a huge achievement).

All Macron needs to do is play it safe. I'm quite curious to watch it though. Could go wild and/or genuine issues which have not been discussed in depth in previous debates could show-up and make for interesting discussions.

Bob24

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And as you say, the Champions League tie limits your potential audience from the start - you'd certainly never see such scheduling from either RTE or the BBC!

They actually seriously considered changing the date when they noticed this but eventually decided to keep it as-is :-D

Audience scores will be interesting to see what people favour.

MadYaker

I'm going to watch this debate. My French isn't what it used to be but I'll still be able to follow it. He's over 10 points ahead in the polls with 4(?) days to go so is the general consensus that it's a done deal bar some major upset?

Zubeneschamali

MadYaker wrote: »

He's over 10 points ahead in the polls with 4(?) days to go so is the general consensus that it's a done deal bar some major upset?

Hes 20 points up, so a 10 point swing would do it, but I think this election is more about how high the National Front number goes.

How respectable is Marine compared to her Dad - 30% 35% 40%?

demfad

MadYaker wrote: »

I'm going to watch this debate. My French isn't what it used to be but I'll still be able to follow it. He's over 10 points ahead in the polls with 4(?) days to go so is the general consensus that it's a done deal bar some major upset?

IMO: There needs to be a big scandal. If they had something big it would have been dropped 7-8 days out, to allow the target to dig themselves a deeper hole.

If they have a smallish thing to drop they might drop that a few days out so the person has no time to clear it up. I would say Macron is safe enough. She might finish over 40%. Assuming no outside help next time, Syria defused and with the consequences of Brexit visible for all to see, I'd see FN as a spent force.

Christy42

Bob24 wrote: »

Not as simple as that. Yes if you look at today's picture people with more degrees will tend to vote for her less. But is it because they are smarter or because they are not facing the real world problems she is talking about? (whether she is providing the right solutions is of course a different matter)

As a matter of fact, academic achievement is much higher in France today that it was 30 years ago and yet her party is doing much better.

Of course you can always educate people more and it will never by a bad thing, but the reality is that no society can function only with top-tier jobs as there simply aren't that many of them required so there will always be gaps. Hence a model of society shouldn't only carter for the most educated but also make the less educated ones feel like it can allow a decent life for them.

Also, when talking about these things it is always wise to differentiate the concepts of professional qualifications, degrees, education, and intelligence. Otherwise there is always a risk to be elitist and look down at some people. For example if I wanted to be provocative I could turn it around and say that because Macron's voters tend to be much younger that let's say Fillon (the other extreme), they are the ones who have the most limited political culture and the shortest real life experience so they don't know what they are voting for. Would it be fair? Not more or less than saying people vote Le Pen because they are less educated.

Sure she is more popular and academic achievement is higher but has her popularity been driven more by the lower or higher educated?

There can be a several ways this can be broken down. Maybe those with a lower educational achievement are being let down more by the state or there is a reason she resonates more with them.


I would love to see the stats for those less well off with a high level of educational achievement and those with a low educational achievement and are well off. Right now they are hard to separate due to heavy correlation between a lack of academic achievement and being less well off (frequently a vicious cycle were those less well off are less in a position to get a high level of academic achievement due to resources as opposed to ability but that is a different story).

I have no issue with that comment on Macron voters. It is a fact that they tend to be younger.

Higher level of educational attainment does not mean you necessarily need a top tier job and indeed many do not. It can however help (but certainly not with 100% effectiveness ) with being able to break down alternative facts (as can life experience for that matter).

I don't really see the need to avoid talking about the fact that Le Pen voters tend to have a lower level of educational achievement. Certainly I don't think Le Pen voters are dumber than others but there are different skill sets at play. The right tend to be some snowflakes for all they complain about them.

Bob24

MadYaker wrote: »

I'm going to watch this debate. My French isn't what it used to be but I'll still be able to follow it. He's over 10 points ahead in the polls with 4(?) days to go so is the general consensus that it's a done deal bar some major upset?

Never say never ... but it certainly isn't as tight as the US election or Brexit referendum were and Macron seems very safe.

There is a next step though which is the general election in a month time.

All very theoretical at this stage but interesting calculator here which tries to predict with the Assemblee National will look like based on first round votes and polls on second round vote transfers: http://anthonyveyssiere.com/legislatives2017/

Here is what it says for its default scenario based on the above, but you can change the parameters if you don't think they make sense and see what would happen (there also is an option to know what would happen if Hamon and Mélanchon managed to join forces and it would turn them from 2 small groups into a relative majority).

An Ciarraioch

Bob24 wrote: »

Never say never ... but it certainly isn't as tight as the US election or Brexit referendum were and Macron seems very safe.

There is a next step though which is the general election in a month time.

All very theoretical at this stage but interesting calculator here which tries to predict with the Assemblee National will look like based on first round votes and polls on second round vote transfers: http://anthonyveyssiere.com/legislatives2017/

Here is what it says for its default scenario based on the above, but you can change the parameters if you don't think they make sense and see what would happen (there also is an option to know what would happen if Hamon and Mélanchon managed to join forces and it would turn them from 2 small groups into a relative majority).

Republicans likely to fend off FN on the right, so their scores seem right, but the Socialists performed surprisingly well in the regional
elections, and remains to be see what kind of constituency-level performance En Marche can spring at short notice.

Rjd2

demfad wrote: »

IMO: There needs to be a big scandal. If they had something big it would have been dropped 7-8 days out, to allow the target to dig themselves a deeper hole.

If they have a smallish thing to drop they might drop that a few days out so the person has no time to clear it up. I would say Macron is safe enough. She might finish over 40%. Assuming no outside help next time, Syria defused and with the consequences of Brexit visible for all to see, I'd see FN as a spent force.

She has 4 million or so votes to make up in a few days, its not utterly impossible, but she needs something extraordinary like God forbid a terrorist attack.

The debate tonight won't save her, Macron way to smooth to mess up that monumentally.

Obviously she wants to win, but finishing with over 40% and ideally close to 45% or so would be a pretty strong showing for her and would give her something to work towards. She'd likely accept that if it was offered to her today.
https://twitter.com/pierrebri/status/859672264853291008

An Ciarraioch

Le Pen's ever-shifting position on the euro:

https://www.rtl.fr/actu/societe-faits-divers/presidentielle-2017-marine-le-pen-est-devenue-inintelligible-sur-la-sortie-de-l-euro-7788355310/amp

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/pierrebri/status/859672264853291008

Ah, the guy calling that magazine far-right must be pretty left :-) There've very conservative but didn't call for a Le Pen vote as far as I know (they are more alligned to the conservative faction within Les Républicains and they would have supported Fillon in the first round). The same guy would probably call The Spectator far right in the UK.

Rjd2

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Ydto3Iyzic

Debate here lads and no anyone's lack of French won't be an issue with this channel:)

Bob24

She's hitting him hard to get started! Seems a bit over the top ...

Calina

God they look like actors in Spiral on that.

Rjd2

Bob24 wrote: »

She's hitting him hard to get started! Seems a bit over the top ...

Missed that, ffs champions league semi on at the same time makes it tricky.

And yes this is first world problems personified.:mad:

Rjd2

Up there with insight such as "Messi is decent at soccer" but wow MLP has **** all substance whatsoever, its really bleak to watch. Her plan tonight is to blame Macron for everything, can't wait until they turn the debate to why a French player has not won a tennis slam for so long.:P

ambro25

It's like watching a debate between Nigel Farage and Vince Cable, tbh.

Un dialogue de sourds ('a dialogue between deafmutes')

Rjd2

ambro25 wrote: »

It's like watching a debate between Nigel Farage and Vince Cable, tbh.

Un dialogue de sourds ('a dialogue between deafmutes')

Harsh on Farage, a rotten individual, but a very skilled and articulate debater.

MLP on the other hand....

Bob24

Pretty boring until now tbh ... just invective and technical measures but no political vision on either side.

ancapailldorcha

Rjd2 wrote: »

Harsh on Farage, a rotten individual, but a very skilled and articulate debater.

MLP on the other hand....

I'd concede that he's charismatic. This is the issue with modern debates. It allows charisma and personality to trump facts and logic.

swiwi_

Ah the French and the register of their language: Monsieur Macron, Madame le Pen. Imagine a political debate in English where everyone is Sir & Madam...

Bob24

swiwi_ wrote: »

Ah the French and the register of their language: Monsieur Macron, Madame le Pen. Imagine a political debate in English where everyone is Sir & Madam...

Probably a matter of cultural difference, but I actually hate the tendency in some countries to address politicians by their first names. I see it as a hypocrite way to pretend they are at the same level as the average bloke and refuse to assume they are part of an elite (I have no problem with having an elected, mind you, more a problem with it pretending it isn't one).

Rjd2

Astonishing to be so erratic about the Euro with only a few days before the election. This rambling is what you'd expect of some random alt right nerd online ffs. :mad:

CelticRambler

It's a society-wide thing. I've got so used to it, I was completely thrown when I went to work in England earlier this year and my clients wanted to know (and call me by) my Christian name from the get-go. :eek:

Anyway, MLP is being true to form tonight, politely ranting and raving about tout et n'importe quoi. It'll please her core support who don't see the link between their purchases of iPhones and John Deere tractors and France's place in the network of global commerce.

Rjd2

CelticRambler wrote: »

Anyway, MLP is being true to form tonight, politely ranting and raving about tout et n'importe quoi. It'll please her core support who don't see the link between their purchases of iPhones and John Deere tractors and France's place in the network of global commerce.

Her rambling about Europe won't impress anyone, it was absolutely bonkers. The election is five days away ffs. :eek:

https://twitter.com/pierrebri/status/859870957040807936

Chuchote

Very scary how many leftists intend to "vote blanc" - would they have abstained if Monsieur Hitler was running?

CelticRambler

Rjd2 wrote: »

Her rambling about Europe won't impress anyone, it was absolutely bonkers. The election is five days away ffs. :eek:

Her supporters are fully convinced the price of their morning coffee will drop back to 1998 prices if MLP re-introduces the Franc. As with a certain section of the electorate in a couple of other jurisdictions, presenting them with facts and evidence doesn't make any difference because their guru couldn't possibly be wrong. :rolleyes:

Chuchote wrote: »

Very scary how many leftists intend to "vote blanc" - would they have abstained if Monsieur Hitler was running?

Yes. And then claimed it was someone else's fault! :mad:

CelticRambler

Jeeez. If this was to run for another hour, I reckon they'd be carrying MLP out in a strait-jacket ... She sounds more and more demented every few minutes. :eek:

embraer170

Is there any moderating at all? Someone has to tell MLP to shut up.

Rjd2

embraer170 wrote: »

Is there any moderating at all? Someone has to tell MLP to shut up.

Its been awful hasn't it?

Credit where its due to Marine, this was a genuine LOL moment if not for the right reasons.

https://twitter.com/MargauxBaralon/status/859880159448530944

Bob24

Well ... moving on. It was a poor debate and won't change the course of the campaign.

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

Its been awful hasn't it?

Pretty crap debate indeed.

Leaving ideology assise, I think if I was Philippot or Maréchal-Le Pen I would be ashamed. These 2 clearly are much better speakers than their boss and quite frankly would be better candidates.

Rjd2

Bob24 wrote: »

Pretty crap debate indeed.

Leaving ideology assise, I think if I was Philippot or Mar?chal-Le Pen I would be ashamed. These 2 clearly are much better speakers than their boss and quite frankly would be better candidates.

Yeah ignoring what you think of her ideas, pretty unforgivable for anyone only a few days before such an election still so unsure about her policies especially on Europe. Her strategy of linking Macron to Hollande which tbf was a canny idea on paper, she made a mess of also.

An Ciarraioch

CelticRambler wrote: »

Her supporters are fully convinced the price of their morning coffee will drop back to 1998 prices if MLP re-introduces the Franc. As with a certain section of the electorate in a couple of other jurisdictions, presenting them with facts and evidence doesn't make any difference because their guru couldn't possibly be wrong. :rolleyes:



Yes. And then claimed it was someone else's fault! :mad:

Indeed, was at least expecting some powerful debater, but just came across as a series of incoherent ramblings - certainly won't win over any floating voters!

Professor Moriarty

Initial polls give it Macron at 63% to 37% for MLP.

Chuchote

Rjd2 wrote: »

Its been awful hasn't it?

Credit where its due to Marine, this was a genuine LOL moment if not for the right reasons.

https://twitter.com/MargauxBaralon/status/859880159448530944

Do they do AutoTune in France? The debate calls for this treatment

CelticRambler wrote: »

It's a society-wide thing. I've got so used to it, I was completely thrown when I went to work in England earlier this year and my clients wanted to know (and call me by) my Christian name from the get-go. :eek:

I've always liked it, but really it's probably a sign, not of the friendliness and egalitarianism I always thought it showed, but of a lack of grown-upness about work and jobs and responsibility for your work.

Trouble is there's no equivalent in English of the polite 'Monsieur' and 'Madame'. When shop assistants et al call one "Moddom" or "Sir" it makes the flesh creep and the gorge rise because it feels like servile crawling, whereas the French 'Monsieur/Madame' is an acknowledgement of mutual status, and feels a little formal, laying the way for a step in to a closer relationship if agreed.

Bob24

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Bob24 wrote: »

Never say never ... but it certainly isn't as tight as the US election or Brexit referendum were and Macron seems very safe.

There is a next step though which is the general election in a month time.

All very theoretical at this stage but interesting calculator here which tries to predict with the Assemblee National will look like based on first round votes and polls on second round vote transfers: http://anthonyveyssiere.com/legislatives2017/

Here is what it says for its default scenario based on the above, but you can change the parameters if you don't think they make sense and see what would happen (there also is an option to know what would happen if Hamon and Mélanchon managed to join forces and it would turn them from 2 small groups into a relative majority).

Republicans likely to fend off FN on the right, so their scores seem right, but the Socialists performed surprisingly well in the regional
elections, and remains to be see what kind of constituency-level performance En Marche can spring at short notice.

Yeah the current political balance with 4 strong forces and the electoral system make it very hard to predict, so I it is just a toy to play with and I wouldn't take any of this at face value.

There will be "triangulaires" and "quadrangulaires" all over the place with fairly low scores required to get elected and rather thin margins between the various parties for only one seat. If you change only one slide just a few percentage points in the model I posted it can give a different majority.

Now the socialist party? I might be wrong but I personally think that assuming Macron gets elected they are finished as a large party (at least temporarily and probably permanently). Either they keep Hamon and his views drifting toward Mélanchon meaning they are becoming just a satellite revolving around larger planet Mélanchon. Or they return to a Hollande type of line which will then most likely make them another kid of minor satellite revolving around planet Macron.
The wise thing to do (which some have started to) might be to acknowledge they are done and split-up with some joining Mélanchon and others joining Macron.

iroced

That was a painful debate. By far the worst ever (for a French presidential election).

Le Pen showed her true face and I hope my compatriots saw it and won't or will stop being blinded by her populistic hot air. Her strategy was ridiculous. She decided to attack, attack and attack again Macron thinking and hoping his supposed lack of experience would make him blow a fuse. She even told lies many times and used some social networks conspiracist spiel... She looked like a totalitarian clown. The way she talked to him, the tone of her voice (like if she was talking to an idiot :rolleyes:), her constant "taking the piss" exaggerated smiling (maybe she forgot she was also talking to ~15+m French people).

I'm no FN supporter and never have been (and will never be) but it is true that the face of this party had (seemingly) changed when she took over from her father troublesome heritage. She had managed to de-demonise her party. You want an example? In 2002, Chirac refiused to debate with Le Pen (Jean-Marie) before the second round. Everyone applauded. This year, Macron could not refuse this debate. That shows that FN had gained a lot of credibility in 15 years. Yesterday, she completely destroyed this and all the old cliché about FN will and already are resurfacing now.

In the end, the only thing she managed to do is give a presidential stature to Macron and allow him proving that, whether we agree with it or not, whether we like it or not, he does have a solid program for our country.

- edit -
By the way. Just a quick question about the poll. Again, I don't know how many French people did participate. But Le Pen is by far ahead... which has me confused. Is it the view you have of France from abroad? Is it what the foreign media (I mean not French) relate of the French politics? Is it what you think/thought will happen? What you wish?