The Next President of France will be...

ambro25

Rjd2 wrote: »

Harsh on Farage, a rotten individual, but a very skilled and articulate debater.

MLP on the other hand....

He's a better snake oil salesman than Marine, I'll give you that without hesitation...

...but it's the same snake oil they're both peddling.

And I owe my current socio-professional quandaries (I'm French, married to a Brit, with a dual nationality daughter, living in the UK with aall the trinkets (cars, house, mortgage, <etc>), professionally qualified here and in the EU, an employee company director of a legal firm standing to lose a good third of its workload/opportunities/rights of audience due to Brexit) due to his lies and misrepresentations.

Harsh you say? So far as I'm concerned, Farage has been free to crever la gueule ouverte dans le caniveau since last June. Preferably slowly. Very slowly. While I watch. And I'd sleep afterwards, like a baby.

Bob24

iroced wrote: »

- edit -
By the way. Just a quick question about the poll. Again, I don't know how many French people did participate. But Le Pen is by far ahead... which has me confused. Is it the view you have of France from abroad? Is it what the foreign media (I mean not French) relate of the French politics? Is it what you think/thought will happen? What you wish?

The poll reflects what some people here fantasied would happen a few months ago based on their often limited knowledge of the situation in France (people who voted are much less that those who actively took part into this discussion which if you go though them were not such a clear cut).

Doesn't really reflect anything else really except that a few months ago the average bloke on boards thought Le Pen had a good chance of winning ...

ambro25

iroced wrote: »

- edit -
By the way. Just a quick question about the poll. Again, I don't know how many French people did participate. But Le Pen is by far ahead... which has me confused. Is it the view you have of France from abroad? Is it what the foreign media (I mean not French) relate of the French politics? Is it what you think/thought will happen? What you wish?

As Bob24 above, and see my 'echoing' earlier post in his thread, from last November:

ambro25 wrote: »

Dunno about Irish bookies, but I'm saying that the average Anglo-Saxon punter doesn't know much about French politics and sentiment (beyond Red Top musings and disinformation), and is likely to be very easily swayed by the notion of a LePen win in the continuum of the Brexit-Trump outcomes. <...>

demfad

iroced wrote: »

- edit -
By the way. Just a quick question about the poll. Again, I don't know how many French people did participate. But Le Pen is by far ahead... which has me confused. Is it the view you have of France from abroad? Is it what the foreign media (I mean not French) relate of the French politics? Is it what you think/thought will happen? What you wish?

LePen, as Trump, gets a lot more attention here than the opposition.
There was also huge propaganda Europe wide about her possibilities which inevitably spilled into general media. A lot of itw as popular in the same way that a horror movie was popular. What if she wins etc?

Obviously no poll put her withjin 20 points of any opponent in round 2, but this was ignored or minimised.

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

Yeah ignoring what you think of her ideas, pretty unforgivable for anyone only a few days before such an election still so unsure about her policies especially on Europe. Her strategy of linking Macron to Hollande which tbf was a canny idea on paper, she made a mess of also.

That and also her communication style (some might say non-communication, don't know if I would go that far ;-)).

I wondering if it could trigger a downfall of Le Pen within the party (reading comment on newspapers her own side seems fairly unhappy with her performance). Her niece is more popular with many and offers clearer views (through to some extend more extreme) and Philippot is the one who engineered the party line and progress of the past few years from the passenger seat as he needed the Le Pen brand. Both must be frustrated to see her make a mess of that potential.

What is protecting her might be that those 2 are on different political lines which are both bringing votes and someone is needed to hold them together.

Valord

CelticRambler wrote: »

Yes. And then claimed it was someone else's fault! :mad:

"I know he said all that stuff about Jews, but there's no way he'll actually go through with it and his opponent just never earned my vote"

iroced wrote: »

- edit -
By the way. Just a quick question about the poll. Again, I don't know how many French people did participate. But Le Pen is by far ahead... which has me confused. Is it the view you have of France from abroad? Is it what the foreign media (I mean not French) relate of the French politics? Is it what you think/thought will happen? What you wish?

You have to consider that most foreigners are not reading even partially comprehensive coverage of the French election. I personally, know fairly little about it, but I still know more than most Irish people. If you only had social media and a few news articles to go off, Marine is probably the only candidate you really know about, or at least that was certainly true months ago when the poll was taken.

Christy42

I think there is also the thinking that the polls were 1-2% off for Trump and maybe3% off for Brexit but given that this error caused a binary result to change completely many people go with the polls were wrong, never mind that they were relatively close and LePen is no where close enough for this type of error to make a difference.

CelticRambler

Listening to the lunchtime analyses of last night's carry-on (French radio is struggling to find anyone who doesn't think MLP was off her head), I've had a disturbing thought: maybe it was all an act, a calculated risk. Just think: if you were on the fence about whether or not to vote for Macron to keep MLP out, this morning you might well be thinking that she was so loopy plenty of other floating voters will tick Macron's box and your one vote wouldn't change things either way. That "crazy woman" performance could in fact strengthen the abstain/spoil vote and get her closer to Macron than if she'd tried to have an adult debate with him.

An Ciarraioch

The first official Assembly poll, by Opinion Way:

En Marche 249-286 seats
Republicans 200-210
PS 28-43
FN 15-25
Front Gauche 6-8

Hamon and Melenchon really need to agree a joint list, it would appear.

Bob24

CelticRambler wrote: »

Listening to the lunchtime analyses of last night's carry-on (French radio is struggling to find anyone who doesn't think MLP was off her head), I've had a disturbing thought: maybe it was all an act, a calculated risk. Just think: if you were on the fence about whether or not to vote for Macron to keep MLP out, this morning you might well be thinking that she was so loopy plenty of other floating voters will tick Macron's box and your one vote wouldn't change things either way. That "crazy woman" performance could in fact strengthen the abstain/spoil vote and get her closer to Macron than if she'd tried to have an adult debate with him.

This actually crossed my mind as well. It positions her ast the perfect protest vote for someone who wants to show they refuse Macron, and might get less people to vote for Macron as a way to keep Le Pen away as they feel their vote is not required any-more (and as we said earlier only a third of his voters really support him).

But thibkining it through I don't think it is a good strategy: she'll probably lose as many votes as she might cause Macron to lose, and it is hurting the credibility of her party going into the general election.

I think she's just a poor debater.

Zubeneschamali

Bob24 wrote: »

I think she's just a poor debater.

The day of the debate there was some reporter on RTé radio saying that Le Pen had literally been trained for this from birth while Macron has never fought an election and has no Party to back him up, so Le Pen had to be favourite in the debate.

They just can't resist trying to make everything a close 2 horse race.

Bob24

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The day of the debate there was some reporter on RTé radio saying that Le Pen had literally been trained for this from birth while Macron has never fought an election and has no Party to back him up, so Le Pen had to be favourite in the debate.

They just can't resist trying to make everything a close 2 horse race.

Agree - but mind you Macron is not great a debater either. He just looks OK because he was facing so poor an opponent. Someone like Mélanchon would have eaten him alive.

Rjd2

I have read many times over the years Le Pen is a good debater tbf.

Macron was not perfect last night, he was cocky and sneering at times. I agree he crushed MLP, but I wouldn't have been confident if he was against someone like Fillon or worst case scenario Melenchon.

Its tricky to know the future of Marine, she has made the party less toxic to the masses and getting to the second round is a decent effort. However it was a so-so first round score, a horrific debate performance and if she doesn't get close to 40% on Sunday then who knows.

Rjd2

ambro25 wrote: »

He's a better snake oil salesman than Marine, I'll give you that without hesitation...

...but it's the same snake oil they're both peddling.

And I owe my current socio-professional quandaries (I'm French, married to a Brit, with a dual nationality daughter, living in the UK with aall the trinkets (cars, house, mortgage, <etc>), professionally qualified here and in the EU, an employee company director of a legal firm standing to lose a good third of its workload/opportunities/rights of audience due to Brexit) due to his lies and misrepresentations.

Harsh you say? So far as I'm concerned, Farage has been free to crever la gueule ouverte dans le caniveau since last June. Preferably slowly. Very slowly. While I watch. And I'd sleep afterwards, like a baby.

What I mean by harsh is purely comparing debate skills. Farage is another league to Marine.

I do agree though he is a truly horrific individual, only a few years ago he looked like he may be easing up on his spiel, but in the last few years he has been horrific, cheer leading fascists all around the world for money.

Truly horrible man indeed.:mad:

An Ciarraioch

Meanwhile, MLP is being investigated over her claim that Macron had an account in the Bahamas.

CelticRambler

Well at one point she was taunting him about what stories "might" appear in the next few days and damage him. It was as if she knew exactly what "fake news" Vlad's lads were about to spread all over the internet.

Billy86

iroced wrote: »

Le Pen showed her true face and I hope my compatriots saw it and won't or will stop being blinded by her populistic hot air. Her strategy was ridiculous. She decided to attack, attack and attack again Macron thinking and hoping his supposed lack of experience would make him blow a fuse. She even told lies many times and used some social networks conspiracist spiel... She looked like a totalitarian clown. The way she talked to him, the tone of her voice (like if she was talking to an idiot :rolleyes:), her constant "taking the piss" exaggerated smiling (maybe she forgot she was also talking to ~15+m French people).

So the question come Sunday is... are the French as dumb as the Americans?

pjohnson

51% on boards support Le Pen?

Rjd2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, MLP is being investigated over her claim that Macron had an account in the Bahamas.

If you are going to taunt someone like that you better have some proof or at least be spotless yourself. Or ideally both.:P

The Le Pen family seem to be lowering expectations.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-04/le-pen-s-party-talks-of-defeat-in-france-after-angry-tv-debate

Someone suggested to me that Marine was so aggressive not just because of how ****ed she is in the polls, but also laying the groundwork to be the main opposition to Macron. She is banking on Macron's run been a failure.

The strategy makes sense, but it was such a poor performance, its going to take a lot for people to forget how bad it was.

Rjd2

pjohnson wrote: »

51% on boards support Le Pen?

They have just voted for who they think will win rather than who they support I assume.

Nothing wrong with that unless they have been sending donations to her party.:P

iroced

Billy86 wrote: »

So the question come Sunday is... are the French as dumb as the Americans?

Hopefully not.

I think Marine Le Pen lost ground yesterday. I'd say only the hard core FN supporters will follow her on Sunday. Her attitude was her father's copycat. Many new/recent FN activists/followers will have been disgusted by that.
I think the gap will be significant now.

Then you have all the undecided. I heard many people claiming they'll abstain or go for a blank vote. That's what's gonna make the margin. But after yesterday, I think (I hope?) the next president of France is not anymore a matter of "who" but a matter of "by how much"?

Kitsunegari

Billy86 wrote: »

So the question come Sunday is... are the French as dumb as the Americans?

That's a pretty high horse your sitting on. It's the attitude of you and your ilk that cause anti-establishment candidates like Trump and Le Pen to get elected. You can't continue to demonise people for holding a view different to yours. I bet you would call yourself a liberal too. These 'new liberals' are just a massive hypocrisy. The media and those who continue to label people as stupid, dumb and fascists for wanting to talk about immigration and radical islam are responsible for the rise of these candidates.

Macron is just a terrible continuation of Hollande's failing policies. France couldn't be more divided. Most people who will vote for Macron will only do so to stop Le Pen. That's hardly a great reason to vote for someone. Personally, I wouldn't vote for Le Pen as she wants to remove France from the EU but I can see why a lot of French voters will vote for Le Pen as Macron is just about the last thing France needs right now. How much dissent will it take for the establishment to reform?

Billy86

Kitsunegari wrote: »

That's a pretty high horse your sitting on. It's the attitude of you and your ilk that cause anti-establishment candidates like Trump and Le Pen to get elected.

No, that's actually far more to do with a lack of education and ability to think things through like "where will the money for all of these ideas come from?" and "how exactly will we be getting £350mn from the NHS again?", mixed in with those just happy to have their hatred other 'otherness' vindicated.

You can't continue to demonise people for holding a view different to yours. I bet you would call yourself a liberal too. These 'new liberals' are just a massive hypocrisy. The media and those who continue to label people as stupid, dumb and fascists for wanting to talk about immigration and radical islam are responsible for the rise of these candidates.

No again, I'm all for opposing viewpoints coming from both sides and finding an ability to typically meet closer to the centre. I'm not in favour of swallowing up lies and bulls*** whole without giving a moment to think it through, because that's frankly lazy.

oscarBravo

Kitsunegari wrote: »

Macron is just a terrible continuation of Hollande's failing policies. France couldn't be more divided.

I don't get that. How would electing Le Pen make France less divided?

Many people justified voting for Trump on the basis that Clinton would just be a terrible continuation of Obama's failing policies. So instead they get a completely different set of catastrophically worse policies.

Yay?

Kitsunegari

oscarBravo wrote: »

I don't get that. How would electing Le Pen make France less divided?

Many people justified voting for Trump on the basis that Clinton would just be a terrible continuation of Obama's failing policies. So instead they get a completely different set of catastrophically worse policies.

Yay?

I didn't say voting for Le Pen would make France less divided.

Obama was a terrible president that promised real change but never delivered. An excellent public speaker but a complete charlatan. Why would you want to continue those policies? Like it or not Trump was the only option to vote for change. Let's see how the term goes before we fully condemn Trump yet.

oscarBravo

Kitsunegari wrote: »

Like it or not Trump was the only option to vote for change.

With respect, that remains a mind-numbingly vacuous argument.

If I have bread and water every day for a month, and then I have the option of either more bread and water or a sh*t sandwich, I'd have to be quite the idiot to vote for change. You're parroting the utterly bizarre idea that change is of necessity a positive thing, as if the status quo is always inherently the worst option.

4068ac1elhodqr

Gap between EU member states over tax systems must be 'reduced' - says Macron

Harmonisation may not be so harmonious for those many miles from Frankfurt, if it end up being locked at 20% across the board.
Meanwhile UK could become a tax haven after 2020 the CT rate is set to drop year-on-year.

Chuchote

Macron has a rich lad's attitude to money - like his silly idea that people should be fined on the spot for crimes.

Billy86

oscarBravo wrote: »

With respect, that remains a mind-numbingly vacuous argument.

If I have bread and water every day for a month, and then I have the option of either more bread and water or a sh*t sandwich, I'd have to be quite the idiot to vote for change. You're parroting the utterly bizarre idea that change is of necessity a positive thing, as if the status quo is always inherently the worst option.

About as vacuous as the argument that someone who left office with one of the higher recorded approval ratings was the reason behind all of this, and a terrible replacement candidate nor lazy, uninformed and under-educated voters who by and large at the time could not, and to this day can not, articulate what their expectations of, nor needs or wants from the "change" they voted for was or is.

Typically both arguments come together, followed by "it's your fault I vote for/support him and can't tell you why", typifying a complete lack of accountability. It's not accidental either, you can look at Theresa May just today trying the same shtick out re Brexit and if the same with Le Pen last night - everything is the fault of 'others' and while I can't tell you what they are because reasons, I'll have the answers to fix it all.

Chuchote

pjohnson wrote: »

51% on boards support Le Pen?

I doubt 100% of those on Boards voted in that poll :P

Bob24

Billy86 wrote: »

No again, I'm all for opposing viewpoints coming from both sides and finding an ability to typically meet closer to the centre. I'm not in favour of swallowing up lies and bulls*** whole without giving a moment to think it through, because that's frankly lazy.

oscarBravo wrote: »

I don't get that. How would electing Le Pen make France less divided?

In short, Le Pen is an angry demagogue addressing those who aren't doing well and Macron is a smiley demagogue addressing those who are doing well. None of them is in the centre and none of them will reduce the divide.

professore

Chuchote wrote: »

pjohnson wrote: »

51% on boards support Le Pen?

I doubt 100% of those on Boards voted in that poll :P

Voting you think she will win is not the same as supporting her

Bob24

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

Gap between EU member states over tax systems must be 'reduced' - says Macron

Harmonisation may not be so harmonious for those many miles from Frankfurt, if it end up being locked at 20% across the board.
Meanwhile UK could become a tax haven after 2020 the CT rate is set to drop year-on-year.

And that's one exemple of the demagogy at play. He's saying that because French people are unhappy about "tax dumping" by countries like Ireland, Luxembourg, or the Netherland. But to them it means those countries should increase corporate tax and Macron knows that the simple reality is that EU countries who have lower rates won't accept to increase them under any circumstance.

So it is just an empty campaign promise which will disappoint his voters (Hollande did something similar in 2012 promising he would renegotiate the EU fiscal package to end-up signing-up exactly for that package).

professore

Billy86 wrote: »

oscarBravo wrote: »

With respect, that remains a mind-numbingly vacuous argument.

If I have bread and water every day for a month, and then I have the option of either more bread and water or a sh*t sandwich, I'd have to be quite the idiot to vote for change. You're parroting the utterly bizarre idea that change is of necessity a positive thing, as if the status quo is always inherently the worst option.

About as vacuous as the argument that someone who left office with one of the higher recorded approval ratings was the reason behind all of this, and a terrible replacement candidate nor lazy, uninformed and under-educated voters who by and large at the time could not, and to this day can not, articulate what their expectations of, nor needs or wants from the "change" they voted for was or is.

Typically both arguments come together, followed by "it's your fault I vote for/support him and can't tell you why", typifying a complete lack of accountability. It's not accidental either, you can look at Theresa May just today trying the same shtick out re Brexit and if the same with Le Pen last night - everything is the fault of 'others' and while I can't tell you what they are because reasons, I'll have the answers to fix it all.

That's an incredibly naïve analysis of 50% of US voters. And the ridiculous claims that Hilary lost because of Russians, white supremacists, misogyny, xenophobia, you name it, surprised they haven't blamed Bigfoot yet. And the private email server WAS a big deal. But I digress. France is very much wealthy middle aged civil servants with secure cushy jobs and pensions on one side and young people with short term work or unemployed on the other side. The latter are going to vote for radical change.

Christy42

professore wrote: »

That's an incredibly naïve analysis of 50% of US voters. And the ridiculous claims that Hilary lost because of Russians, white supremacists, misogyny, xenophobia, you name it, surprised they haven't blamed Bigfoot yet. And the private email server WAS a big deal. But I digress. France is very much wealthy middle aged civil servants with secure cushy jobs and pensions on one side and young people with short term work or unemployed on the other side. The latter are going to vote for radical change.

The youth in France seem pretty split.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-28/macron-s-youth-is-no-lure-for-first-time-voters-in-french-poll

I guess we will see how many young transfers she picks up but Macron 18% and LePen 21% is pretty even.

I agree on the email server which is why Pence got sacked for using one in Indian, no wait. No one cared.

Chuchote

Bob24 wrote: »

And that's one exemple of the demagogy at play. He's saying that because French people are unhappy about "tax dumping" by countries like Ireland, Luxembourg, or the Netherland. But to them it means those countries should increase corporate tax and Macron knows that the simple reality is that EU countries who have lower rates won't accept to increase them under any circumstance.

So it is just an empty campaign promise which will disappoint his voters (Hollande did something similar in 2012 promising he would renegotiate the EU fiscal package to end-up signing-up exactly for that package).

The word no one is going to mention in terms of corporate tax is "transparency". Countries that shout loud about changing other countries' structure can be revealed as having equally handy deals for big business, but wrapped around in a cloak of different tax breaks.

Billy86

professore wrote: »

That's an incredibly naïve analysis of 50% of US voters. And the ridiculous claims that Hilary lost because of Russians, white supremacists, misogyny, xenophobia, you name it, surprised they haven't blamed Bigfoot yet. And the private email server WAS a big deal. But I digress. France is very much wealthy middle aged civil servants with secure cushy jobs and pensions on one side and young people with short term work or unemployed on the other side. The latter are going to vote for radical change.

It's not an analysis of the full 46% of the vote he got, it's worryingly large section of them that swung the EC vote in his favour that could not and still cannot articulate what they want, feel they need or expect from him or their government. The other parts you point out are straw men in relation to my post, though since you mention it Russian interference can't be so ridiculous given that it seen as a given to have happened from the US intelligence community (the current US investigations being about collusion in said interference) following multiple warnings from the UK intelligence community, that is largely believed to be seen in the French elections.

oscarBravo

Chuchote wrote: »

The word no one is going to mention in terms of corporate tax is "transparency". Countries that shout loud about changing other countries' structure can be revealed as having equally handy deals for big business, but wrapped around in a cloak of different tax breaks.

This. The corporation tax rate in Ireland is 12.5%, and the effective tax rate is pretty close to that. The nominal rate in France is 33%, but the effective rate is about 8%.

Bob24

oscarBravo wrote: »

This. The corporation tax rate in Ireland is 12.5%, and the effective tax rate is pretty close to that. The nominal rate in France is 33%, but the effective rate is about 8%.

It's 10 years old aright but this EU publication tells a different story (and quite frankly, whether people agree with these tax schemes or not you don't have to be a rocket scientist to realise the massive foreign investments coming to Ireland and the fact the many multinationals route their EU wide profits through a small peripheral country has to do with better tax conditions for them):




At the end of the day, we definitely agree headline tax rates don't mean much and can be played with. The thing is, who is right or wrong about these figures doesn't matter when you enter the political arena.

The idea touted by Macron here is to introduce a taxing framework for all EU (or EZ) members which restricts what they can or cannot do, and make that framework increasingly restrictive over the years so that it eventually becomes so tight that all countries effectively pretty much have the same tax rules. Once you have reached than point any debate on who is having the most loopholes to avoid the headline rates becomes irrelevant because those are the same everywhere.

Of course countries which are using friendly tax rules for corporations in order to gain competitive advantage will oppose this as this would completely ruin their business plans (and again Macron knows than and also knows he has no way to impose what he is talking about because very few EU countries are willing to give up sovereignty in terms of tax policies, hence why I call it empty promises).

Bob24

Btw it likely won't come as a surprise to anyway but the last last Opinionway poll we'll see before the vote confirms the debate didn't work too well for Le Pen.



Also there were 16.8 million viewers for the debate, which with 60% of viewers is a lot compared to any other television program at the time (including the football ;-)) but a bit poor compared to previous second round debates.

An Ciarraioch

Yes, the gap appears to have widened by 4% (2% swing) since Le Debat, so could well finish 65-35 by Sunday. Fewer Front Gauche abstainers also, albeit marginal differences:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election%2C_2017

HalloweenJack

Hope to see Macron and it looks very good for him but after Brexit and Trump, I'm still a bit wary.

I like the French way of doing things. It's great that you get a chance to vote for your initial preference and then a second chance to vote for who you'd prefer to win out of the two.

Rjd2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Yes, the gap appears to have widened by 4% (2% swing) since Le Debat, so could well finish 65-35 by Sunday. Fewer Front Gauche abstainers also, albeit marginal differences:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election%2C_2017

The fact Marion (her niece) came out and said 40% would be a great performance is pretty much the Le Pen camp admitting victory is highly unlikely.

Also, like many I laughed at Le Pen when she suggested Macron had oversea Bahama accounts, turns out where she is getting the info from is actually pretty genuine. :eek:

https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/860453493911543812

demfad

Rjd2 wrote: »

The fact Marion (her niece) came out and said 40% would be a great performance is pretty much the Le Pen camp admitting victory is highly unlikely.

Also, like many I laughed at Le Pen when she suggested Macron had oversea Bahama accounts, turns out where she is getting the info from is actually pretty genuine. :eek:

https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/860453493911543812

I would predict a percent or two above polls as in US and Brexit, although French polls v accurate for round 1.

I felt they had nothing big on Macron which would be ideally dropped 7-8 days out. Next best, is to fabricate fake news closer. Macron team were expecting it though, backfired.

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

The fact Marion (her niece) came out and said 40% would be a great performance is pretty much the Le Pen camp admitting victory is highly unlikely.

Yes I think they have known for a few days they wouldn't make it (maybe the reason she went crazy at the debate as a last resort trying to cause Macron to loose control?).

But she's right though, 40% would already be a good achievement for them as last time the party made it to the second round it remained stuck with the 17% it got at the first round (and if it is their new upper ceiling, it give them potential to get MP seats in the many constituencies where there will be 3 or 4 candidates in the second round). I think she made a mistake to set that target though, especially with the poor performance at the debate they could be slightly below which in her own words would not be a victory any-more.

Jamiekelly

Kitsunegari wrote: »

That's a pretty high horse your sitting on. It's the attitude of you and your ilk that cause anti-establishment candidates like Trump and Le Pen to get elected. You can't continue to demonise people for holding a view different to yours. I bet you would call yourself a liberal too. These 'new liberals' are just a massive hypocrisy. The media and those who continue to label people as stupid, dumb and fascists for wanting to talk about immigration and radical islam are responsible for the rise of these candidates.

Macron is just a terrible continuation of Hollande's failing policies. France couldn't be more divided. Most people who will vote for Macron will only do so to stop Le Pen. That's hardly a great reason to vote for someone. Personally, I wouldn't vote for Le Pen as she wants to remove France from the EU but I can see why a lot of French voters will vote for Le Pen as Macron is just about the last thing France needs right now. How much dissent will it take for the establishment to reform?

You didn't even get to the end of your first paragraph before undermining your own message.

- Accuse someone of demonizing other points of view.
- Claim to know said person's political point of view.
- Confirm it to yourself without reply or confirmation from the person.
- Engage in a "demonizing" tirade against people with a different view to you based on an unproven assumption.

Simply disagreeing with someone in a blunt manner is not "demonizing" them. After all, politics is division by definition. Why are people so hypersensitive to the idea that stupid people exist?

If someone tells me the earth is flat I reserve the right to tell them they're an idiot. If Donald Trump can essentially call for his supporters to use their "second amendment" right in the event of him losing an election then I would call him a violence inducing fascist scumbag.

Just because you want to hear a politician talk about Islam and immigration in a meaningful way does not mean I have to listen to a polished turd and pretend its a diamond just because people feel "angry" at the establishment.

Basing your politics on one or two issues alone and using feelings to justify those views sounds very childish to me. Almost "snowflake-y" sorry couldn't resist

An Ciarraioch

One could argue that Germany's CDU are the most effective mainstream right European party when it comes to dealing with both Islam and immigration - they call out extreme groups preaching in mosques and expect newcomers to immigrate, but correctly put such topics in the background and concentrate on economic and foreign policy issues. As the debate showed, once the FN are forced to discuss mundane issues, they've few constructive ideas.

An Ciarraioch

Interestingly, it seems En Marche will join the ALDE Eurogroup, which somewhat incongrously FF currently belong to, so Miche?l Martin will be getting well acquainted with Macron:

http://www.lesoir.be/1496525/article/actualite/union-europeenne/2017-05-04/emmanuel-macron-rejoindra-famille-liberale-europeenne

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/wikileaks

Supposedly a Macron leak on its way. Obviously Le Pen would be the ideal choice for those behind such a thing, but the timing is very odd.

In a perfect world Russia would have wanted this in play before the first round to cause Macron all sorts of issues. Don't forget Fillon and Melenchon are pro Russia so either of them or Le Pen making up the 2 spots in the final round would have been perfect for Russia.

Worst case scenario, Russia would have liked this to be leaked on the eve of the election.

Strange.

Chuchote

There have already been Macron leaks, some simply lies, some badly aimed at a French population liable to shrug, make that ppff noise and mutter "Ah bon?"