The Next President of France will be...

Rjd2

dublinman1990 wrote: »

Macron's projection is at 65.5% of the vote. That is a thumping victory for him if these results are correct.

Very much so, Marion (te niece) had said they would be happy with 40%

She was projected to get around that, but her debate"performance" killed her,overall while qualifying was a decent achievement from the first round she under performed in both rounds.

Hopefully after this, Austria and Wilders, people can cop on about the suposedly unstoppable right, bollocks which to many people have bought into.

BorneTobyWilde

snowflaker wrote: »

A bad day for the Alt-Right! So deighted!

A win for Europe. How long before the United states of Europe becomes a reality, where there is one president who rules us all.

An Ciarraioch

That said, triumphalism hardly seems appropriate when a far-right candidate can secure 35% of the vote. The first round showed that France has a sizeable regional and demographic divide, so until the unemployment levels are tackled, the danger remains that anti-EU sentiment will continue to grow.

BorneTobyWilde

Marion could still push for a vote on staying in or out of Europe like Farage, He was never in power but got what he wanted.

Christy42

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

That said, triumphalism hardly seems appropriate when a far-right candidate can secure 35% of the vote. The first round showed that France has a sizeable regional and demographic divide, so until the unemployment levels are tackled, the danger remains that anti-EU sentiment will continue to grow.

It seems to be on the fall. Seeing a lunatic in power in the states seems to have dampened the desire to have a lunatic in power elsewhere.

Hopefully Trump can be kept quiet and this far right can continue to fall. Remember that she was looking for 40% with some even saying she would win. This was a failure for her.

swiwi_

Listening to Bayrou on France 2, reminds me why France finds itself where it does, referring to France as "one of the world's great countries". The French need to stop thinking this and actually make it happen. They still haven't got past their image as a colonial power and a leading light of world economics and political power.

snowflaker

swiwi_ wrote: »

Listening to Bayrou on France 2, reminds me why France finds itself where it does, referring to France as "one of the world's great countries". The French need to stop thinking this and actually make it happen. They still haven't got past their image as a colonial power and a leading light of world economics and political power.

They are the 6th largest economy in the world tbf

snowflaker

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Marion could still push for a vote on staying in or out of Europe like Farage, He was never in power but got what he wanted.

She doesn't theaten Macron's base like Ukip threatened conservatives in the U.K.

Yourself isit

Christy42 wrote: »

It seems to be on the fall. Seeing a lunatic in power in the states seems to have dampened the desire to have a lunatic in power elsewhere.

Hopefully Trump can be kept quiet and this far right can continue to fall. Remember that she was looking for 40% with some even saying she would win. This was a failure for her.

What isn't on the fall is anti-EU anti-globalisation sentiment.

snowflaker

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

A win for Europe. How long before the United states of Europe becomes a reality, where there is one president who rules us all.

Europe was always governed on broad consensus- that's why the old Blighty never liked it

snowflaker

Yourself isit wrote: »

What isn't on the fall is anti-EU anti-globalisation sentiment.

I don't think it's on the rise, just has a louder voice.

swiwi_

snowflaker wrote: »

They are the 6th largest economy in the world tbf

True. But they have a lot less influence than they would hope or think. They are a rich country, but the common man is relatively poorly off compared to some of its neighbours.

I personally think Macron will struggle - genuine reform is very difficult in France, even more so when he is likely to have seek parliamentary friends to actually pass any laws.

Yourself isit

snowflaker wrote: »

She doesn't theaten Macron's base like Ukip threatened conservatives in the U.K.

Macron's "base" is his first round polling numbers. His new voters are anti le pen. However if he is as pro globalisation as he sounds the next president will be either a left wing or right wing populist.

snowflaker

swiwi_ wrote: »

True. But they have a lot less influence than they would hope or think. They are a rich country, but the common man is relatively poorly off compared to some of its neighbours.

I personally think Macron will struggle - genuine reform is very difficult in France, even more so when he is likely to have seek parliamentary friends to actually pass any laws.

Reform always moves slowly, but it halts a nationistic anti EU direction

snowflaker

Yourself isit wrote: »

Macron's "base" is his first round polling numbers. His new voters are anti le pen. However if he is as pro globalisation as he sounds the next president will be either a left wing or right wing populist.

He's very Neo-Socialist- v Tony Blair New Labouresque

Rjd2

snowflaker wrote: »

I don't think it's on the rise, just has a louder voice.

If you recall the Austrian far right chap was supposedly in the lead in the week before the last vote, but Farage was on television suggesting when he won he would hold a referendum where Austria could decide if they wanted to leave the EU.

It was cat nip for his opponents and Hoefer and his party ended up pretty much telling Farage to f of and downplaying such a scenario.

Wilders toned back a lot of his anti EU rhetoric, while Le Pen at times did suggest she would do the same.

Its no longer "good" populism to hate the EU.

Yourself isit

snowflaker wrote: »

I don't think it's on the rise, just has a louder voice.

Of the candidates in the first round euro sceptics probably were the majority.

My guess is after macron destroys France even more than the existing globalisers, the next president with be melenchon, or someone like that.

Billy86

Rjd2 wrote: »

If you recall the Austrian far right chap was supposedly in the lead in the week before the last vote, but Farage was on television suggesting when he won he would hold a referendum where Austria could decide if they wanted to leave the EU.

It was cat nip for his opponents and Hoefer and his party ended up pretty much telling Farage to f of and downplaying such a scenario.

Wilders toned back a lot of his anti EU rhetoric, while Le Pen at times did suggest she would do the same.

Its no longer winning populism to hate in the EU.

Pretty much, just like Trump in the US is scaring people off voting for far right populists with little-to-no substance, the carry on and outlook in the UK is scaring them off the prospect of leaving the EU.

swiwi_

Yourself isit wrote: »

Of the candidates in the first round euro sceptics probably were the majority.

My guess is after macron destroys France even more than the existing globalisers, the next president with be melenchon, or someone like that.

Ah Melenchon. Pure communism. France is a bit weird in that communist ideas still have a reasonable stronghold. In most western countries (including Ireland), those type of ideas are generally electoral suicide.

snowflaker

Yourself isit wrote: »

Of the candidates in the first round euro sceptics probably were the majority.

My guess is after macron destroys France even more than the existing globalisers, the next president with be melenchon, or someone like that.

Doubt that very much

Christy42

Yourself isit wrote: »

What isn't on the fall is anti-EU anti-globalisation sentiment.

Seems to be falling off. That is 3 losses now and little hope of it seriously taking route in Germany.

Trump's administration being a joke without a clue on how anything works has certainly hurt the far right. The scrambling around from the UK is not helping though the real damage from that will happen in two years time.

yerwanthere123

Thank heavens the homophobe lost. Well done France, a good day.

Yourself isit

Christy42 wrote: »

Seems to be falling off. That is 3 losses now and little hope of it seriously taking route in Germany.

Trump's administration being a joke without a clue on how anything works has certainly hurt the far right. The scrambling around from the UK is not helping though the real damage from that will happen in two years time.

It's not falling off. It's not just the right. Not all left wing movements have been co-opted by globalists.

This run off could easily have been melenchon and le pen. The next one is even more likely to be that (as macron is likely to be detested by then).

An Ciarraioch

swiwi_ wrote: »

Ah Melenchon. Pure communism. France is a bit weird in that communist ideas still have a reasonable stronghold. In most western countries (including Ireland), those type of ideas are generally electoral suicide.

Solidarity/PBP? The unfortunate tendency across Europe (Greece, Spain, and now France) is that far-left movements are wiping out social democrats, with the centre-right increasing their scores as a result.

snowflaker

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Solidarity/PBP? The unfortunate tendency across Europe (Greece, Spain, and now France) is that far-left movements are wiping out social democrats, with the centre-right increasing their scores as a result.

Centre left won today!

4068ac1elhodqr

Christy42 wrote: »

Seems to be falling off. That is 3 losses now and little hope of it seriously taking route in Germany.

Ah but what about Italy? They're actually favourites along with Greece to leave the EU next.

Christy42 wrote: »

Trump's administration being a joke without a clue on how anything works has certainly hurt the far right.

He ain't no Einstein, but has just got jobless rate to lowest in a decade, growth in wages and across stock markets, infrastructure projects seem buoyant and has hit a few bad people with a big stick.

Christy42 wrote: »

The scrambling around from the UK is not helping though the real damage from that will happen in two years time.

Speculation. They'll likely become a sort of low-tax haven and concentrate on 4IR innovation and thus global exports.

Christy42

Yourself isit wrote: »

It's not falling off. It's not just the right. Not all left wing movements have been co-opted by globalists.

This run of could easily have been melenchon and le pen. The next one is even more likely to be that (as macron is likely to be detested by then).

And yet the melenchon voters did not go to LePen and she lost ground in comparison to what was expected. This was a 30% point win it should be pointed out which is a ton in a 2 horse race. That is a big gap to make that up and Melanchon does not seem massively likely to take 50% either (though he is at least a little more of having a less crazy outlook on life). I reckon his saner outlook on life will stop him pulling the trigger on leaving the EU or doing anything to tank his country. 35% is not close to the presidency.

Remember both Wilders and LePen lost ground at the end when it came down to it in spite of all the bull**** about shy voters that has gone round the last year. Both lost ground and hopefully will continue to do so.

snowflaker

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

Ah but what about Italy? They're actually favourites along with Greece to leave the EU next.



He ain't no Einstein, but has just got jobless rate to lowest in a decade, growth in wages and across stock markets, infrastructure projects seem buoyant and has hit a few bad people with a big stick.



Speculation. They'll likely become a sort of low-tax haven and concentrate on 4IR innovation and thus global exports.

The joblessness figures are based on Obama policies - how could Trump affect jobless rates yet!??

snowflaker

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

Ah but what about Italy? They're actually favourites along with Greece to leave the EU next.



He ain't no Einstein, but has just got jobless rate to lowest in a decade, growth in wages and across stock markets, infrastructure projects seem buoyant and has hit a few bad people with a big stick.



Speculation. They'll likely become a sort of low-tax haven and concentrate on 4IR innovation and thus global exports.

The Netherlands were the most Eurosceptic - Italy moved to the centre also if I remember correctly

Yourself isit

Christy42 wrote: »

And yet the melenchon voters did not go to LePen and she lost ground in comparison to what was expected. This was a 30% point win it should be pointed out which is a ton in a 2 horse race. That is a big gap to make that up and Melanchon does not seem massively likely to take 50% either (though he is at least a little more of having a less crazy outlook on life). I reckon his saner outlook on life will stop him pulling the trigger on leaving the EU or doing anything to tank his country. 35% is not close to the presidency.

Remember both Wilders and LePen lost ground at the end when it came down to it in spite of all the bull**** about shy voters that has gone round the last year. Both lost ground and hopefully will continue to do so.

You're really not engaging with my points. I expect France to have a euro sceptic president some day. Probably of the left.

dublinman1990

Le Pen only has possibly 2 MPs out of 577 seats in the National Assembly. She is in huge trouble if she does not command a lot of power for her FN voter base.

It is a big hit to the Alt-right's own supposed popularity in trying to break up the stronghold of Europe. This victory for Macron is a hit to the Alt-right's own political ego. These results show that the Alt-right have a seriously weak influence in how to win outright control over their own people & beyond. If the Alt-right parties which don't win elections by the majority in other European countries that have a big influence; well the Alt-right's own influence will get gradually smaller & smaller overtime to become nothing more than a damp squib within Europe's policies.

One would have to look the overall image of the Alt-right at this point now Macron has won victory. The Alt-right's image is one that projects a lot of instability among lots of sensible thinking people in how they want to command their rules among their own voter base. They had been created on a fear that had awoken Europe to a sudden jolt of expectation that they were to going big victories for global politics. Sure they won their day with Trump & Brexit.

The question is how much more influence will happen for them when other elections happen in Europe.

This victory is a win for the credibility for the influence of the European Union in how it operates for the society as a whole. It may not described be a perfect organisation to all of it inhabitant's. But it is the best of what we have of a fully functioning institution. I am happy that Macron has won in Europe. I find him far more a preferable winner than Le Pen winning the Election. I hope he does well in his presidency.

4068ac1elhodqr

snowflaker wrote: »

The joblessness figures are based on Obama policies - how could Trump affect jobless rates yet!??

April (2017's) figures surpassed expectations, yes some historical factors but also shows confidence in hiring from tax cuts and slashed regulation.

Christy42

Yourself isit wrote: »

You're really not engaging with my points. I expect France to have a euro sceptic president some day. Probably of the left.

My point is that it is of hope. Maybe some day. There has yet to be many strong left wing anti eu politicians. They don't get on well with the right (with good reason).

Your point is that you are claiming victory for a result in 5, 10, 20 years time which may never come.

snowflaker

Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »

April (2017's) figures surpassed expectations, yes some historical factors but also shows confidence in hiring from tax cuts and slashed regulation.

Really? Fall in his first three months are attributable to him?

RandomName2

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Marion could still push for a vote on staying in or out of Europe like Farage, He was never in power but got what he wanted.

David Cameron had promised a referendum both on Scottish independence and on EU membership in a bid to gain more votes during the general election.

Macron said that he was distinctly against giving the French a vote on EU membership. In fact, he intends to increase EU federalisation. He would be actively going against his campaign, and self-interest, were he to offer a vote!

swiwi_

yerwanthere123 wrote: »

Thank heavens the homophobe lost. Well done France, a good day.

Isn't her campaign spokesman openly gay?

I really don't think this election was too much about homophobia, if at all.

RandomName2

dublinman1990 wrote: »

Le Pen only has possibly 2 MPs out of 577 seats in the National Assembly. She is in huge trouble if she does not command a lot of power for her FN voter base.

It is a big hit to the Alt-right's own supposed popularity in trying to break up the stronghold of Europe. This victory for Macron is a hit to the Alt-right's own political ego. These results show that the Alt-right have a seriously weak influence in how to win outright control over their own people & beyond. If the Alt-right parties which don't win elections by the majority in other European countries that have a big influence; well the Alt-right's own influence will get gradually smaller & smaller overtime to become nothing more than a damp squib within Europe's policies.

One would have to look the overall image of the Alt-right at this point now Macron has won victory. The Alt-right's image is one that projects a lot of instability among lots of sensible thinking people in how they want to command their rules among their own voter base. They had been created on a fear that had awoken Europe to a sudden jolt of expectation that they were to going big victories for global politics. Sure they won their day with Trump & Brexit.

The question is how much more influence will happen for them when other elections happen in Europe.

This victory is a win for the credibility for the influence of the European Union in how it operates for the society as a whole. It may not described be a perfect organisation to all of it inhabitant's. But it is the best of what we have of a fully functioning institution. I am happy that Macron has won in Europe. I find him far more a preferable winner than Le Pen winning the Election. I hope he does well in his presidency.

I think the term Alt-right is less than useful in relation to an election like this. It is to suppose that 4chan and Breitbart were the campaigners in the election, whereas they had virtually nothing to do with it. It is as sloppy as saying that Penelopegate ensured that the halt of the Republican Party in Europe (gate sounds like Watergate, and Fillon was the candidate of "the Republicans", so surely he was the candidate of the United States' Republican party :pac:)

Billy86

Yourself isit wrote: »

It's not falling off. It's not just the right. Not all left wing movements have been co-opted by globalists.

This run off could easily have been melenchon and le pen. The next one is even more likely to be that (as macron is likely to be detested by then).

Yes, if more people had voted for other candidates than Macron then Macron would not have won the election. But they didn't, so...

It could far more easily have been Macron and Fillon by the way, who came 1st and 3rd respectively.

CoolHandBandit

Massive result for Le Pen. 35% of the popular vote is impressive if you aspire to the far right.

Billy86

CoolHandBandit wrote: »

Massive result for Le Pen. 35% of the popular vote is impressive if you aspire to the far right.

If you aspire to fall short of expectations, I guess it is. But why would someone want to fall short of what is expected of them? It's literally hoping to fail.

pumpkin4life

"The facts were plain: Europe had reached a point of such putrid decomposition that it could no longer save itself, any more than fifth-century Rome could have done. This wave of new immigrants, with their traditional culture — of natural hierarchies, the submission of women and respect for elders — offered a historic opportunity for the moral and familial rearmament of Europe. These immigrants held out the hope of a new golden age for the old continent. Some were Christian; but there was no denying that the vast majority were Muslim.

He, Rediger, was the first to admit the greatness of medieval Christendom, whose artistic achievements would live forever in human memory; but little by little it had given way, it had been forced to compromise with rationalism, it had renounced its temporal powers, and so had sealed its own doom — and why? In the end, it was a mystery; God had ordained it so." -Houellebecq.

red ears

Rjd2 wrote: »

If you recall the Austrian far right chap was supposedly in the lead in the week before the last vote, but Farage was on television suggesting when he won he would hold a referendum where Austria could decide if they wanted to leave the EU.

It was cat nip for his opponents and Hoefer and his party ended up pretty much telling Farage to f of and downplaying such a scenario.

Wilders toned back a lot of his anti EU rhetoric, while Le Pen at times did suggest she would do the same.

Its no longer winning populism to hate in the EU.

They don't need to leave the EU, the EU has potential they just need to reform it. Sovereign trading nations, no more talk of an EU superstate and bring in sensible immigration controls.

RandomName2

red ears wrote: »

They don't need to leave the EU, the EU has potential they just need to reform it. Sovereign trading nations, no more talk of an EU superstate and bring in sensible immigration controls.

This is totally true, and totally not going to happen.

The people in charge of the EU are entirely disinterested in reforming it - they specifically believe that everything that has been done to date has been great, and that "closer union" is what is required. Macron, for instance, feels that Poland and Ireland should be punished for their recalcitrance.

Far from having sensible immigration controls, the leaders of the EU want there to be forced sharing of immigrants between member states. The other major change that they are considering is greater fiscal unity (harmonization of tax rates and central control over member state budgets)

seenitall

...aaaand towards an ever closer Union merrily we go...

Mes felicitations au peuple libre de France

recedite

Billy86 wrote: »

If you aspire to fall short of expectations, I guess it is. But why would someone want to fall short of what is expected of them? It's literally hoping to fail.

Not really, people like Farage and Wilders have had huge influence on the policies of the parties who are actually in power. With far less than 35% of the vote.

greencap

CoolHandBandit wrote: »

Massive result for Le Pen. 35% of the popular vote is impressive if you aspire to the far right.

Just happy and relieved she lost.

I understand the concerns of those who voted LePen, but the kamakazi nuclear option of destroying our own economic bloc was a stupid idea.

An Ciarraioch

recedite wrote: »

Not really, people like Farage and Wilders have had huge influence on the policies of the parties who are actually in power. With far less than 35% of the vote.

Except that 35% will be split between France Insoumise and the FN during the Assembly election, if one assumes that En Marche, the Socialists and Republicans comprise Macron's 65%.

yerwanthere123

swiwi_ wrote: »

Isn't her campaign spokesman openly gay?

I really don't think this election was too much about homophobia, if at all.

One of her campaign promises was to reverse gay marriage in France. I think that makes it quite clear the light in which her and her party holds gay men and women.

Gbear

recedite wrote: »

Not really, people like Farage and Wilders have had huge influence on the policies of the parties who are actually in power. With far less than 35% of the vote.

That's more true in the UK, where there's already overlap between them and the tories and FPTP makes UKIP not a viable party in the long term.

Whatever effect the FN will have, it'll be dwarfed by having to appease the other 65% of the vote in a more representative system.

Rjd2

yerwanthere123 wrote: »

One of her campaign promises was to reverse gay marriage in France. I think that makes it quite clear the light in which her and her party holds gay men and women.

http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2017/02/14/frances-marine-le-pen-quietly-pledges-to-end-same-sex-marriage/

Yep and don't forget how critical her niece (next in line to replace her) a staunch catholic has been of it.

. So she comes across as more conciliatory than Le Pen while pushing views that are more uncompromising, such as her belief that gay marriage ?could open the door to polygamy? and that the Constitution should be reformed in order to protect and promote Christian traditions.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/marion-le-pen-undermining-aunts-campaign/