The Next President of France will be...

Bob24

gooch2k9 wrote: »

http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/05/09/35003-20170509ARTFIG00176-fn-marion-marechal-le-pen-envisage-de-renoncer-a-ses-mandats.php?redirect_premium

Marion retiring? My French is rusty.

She has confirmed through an open letter that she will be stepping out of politics for now.

Not sure what effect it will have on the party. On one hand there is on less rival for Marine Le Pen, on the other hand Front National strongholds in the south east of France have been sticking around because of the political line of her niece (she is probably more popular than her aunt over there) and where counting on her taking over the party eventually. So her departure could weaken the party as I don't think there is any obvious replacement to lead that faction.

It is more and more looking like front National is in as much of a crisis as Le Républicains are (though not as much as the socialist party which is currently imposing). Definitely a lot of changes in French politics to follow this election and I think it is difficult to predict what's next.

Bob24

And campaigning for the parliamentary elections has started already!

Baroin who is leading the LR campaign is already promising 10% cut on income tax if the party gets a majority ... only that! :-D

Chuchote

gooch2k9 wrote: »

http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/05/09/35003-20170509ARTFIG00176-fn-marion-marechal-le-pen-envisage-de-renoncer-a-ses-mandats.php?redirect_premium

Marion retiring? My French is rusty.

Throw it through Google Translate if in doubt - it'll give you some howlers, but an idea of the sense, and it's getting better as time goes by.

And if your French is like mine - basic, but not fluent - make use of the excellent (usually, though occasionally drastic) Reverso dictionary

http://www.reverso.net/translationresults.aspx?lang=EN&direction=french-english

(If you can offer a better translation of an example on this dictionary, click the lowest-value star and type it in; they'll look at it and may include it.)

Bob24

Not quite sure whether Macron just playing with Valls' nerves or telling him to get lost, but his parliamentary campaign director just confirmed the list of candidates will be announced tomorrow and as of today Valls doesn't meet the requirements.

An Ciarraioch

Hamon will remain a Socialist, but wants to unite the left:

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170510/french-socialist-hamon-to-launch-new-leftwing-movement

Bob24

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Hamon will remain a Socialist, but wants to unite the left:

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170510/french-socialist-hamon-to-launch-new-leftwing-movement

Found it funny this morning to read about him intending to "launch a new movement" which will be "trans-partisan" ... sounds like he sees himself as the next Macon even copying the terminology! I think I will find out that ship has already sailed ...

Chuchote

Interesting piece in The Irish Times about Maréchal-Le Pen's retirement from politics:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/le-pen-profoundly-regrets-niece-s-decision-to-quit-politics-1.3077946

Vanity Fair magazine describes Maréchal-Le Pen as “the most hardened, purest, farthest right, most conservative, most Catholic, most nationalist, most ideological” of the Le Pen clan.
Maréchal-Le Pen’s departure is like the latest instalment in a reality television show that could be titled The Le Pen Family Saga.

Lara Marlow mentions Le GUD - well worth taking a look at videos about this group.

Maréchal-Le Pen also dislikes the gudards who handle much of the logistics for the FN. Marine Le Pen’s friends from Assas law school, they founded the Gud, a militia-like group with neo-fascist overtones.

Bob24

Interesting visualisation ... Macron's France on the left and Le Pen's France on the right (each map only showing the parts of France where the candidate got a majority of the votes in the second round).

Rjd2

Marion will be fine in the short and long term. In five years if Marine loses, she probably will return in a blaze of glory to lead the party. Marine might be glad the sideshow that is their feud is gone, but the party desperately needs her.

Dupont-Aignan will be targeting people in the FN e.g catholic conservatives who may feel they have no home with Marion gone.

Billy86

Bob24 wrote: »

Interesting visualisation ... Macron's France on the left and Le Pen's France on the right (each map only showing the parts of France where the candidate got a majority of the votes in the second round).

So the one on the left has more people than the one on the right (and/or Macron won the one on the left by greater margins than le pen one the one on the right). Typically votes are counted depending) by people, not by landmass.

Bob24

The main idea is to show in which areas of France Macron or Le Pen hold a majority I think, rather that comparing land masses.

For example when people talk about two separate Front nationals in the north east and the the south east, or say Brittany and large cities overwhelmingly chose Macron, the maps illustrate the geographical reality behind these comments pretty well.

Bob24

First hicup for Macron and his alliance with Bayrou: http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2017/05/11/97001-20170511FILWWW00358-bayrou-les-investitures-en-marche-n-ont-pas-l-assentiment-du-modem.php

En Marche published a list with most of their candidates for the parliamentary elections, and Bayrou is saying it wasn't approved by his party MoDem (whereas they were supposed to have a deal so that some constituencies are reserved for Bayrou's people who could run at the same time as candidats for En Marche and MoDem).

An Ciarraioch

Latest Assembly poll:
En Marche 29% (+3)
LR 20% (-2)
FN 20% (-2)
France Insoumise 14% (+1)
Socialists 7% (-1)
Verts 3% (-)
Debout La France 3% (-)
Communists 2% (-)
Lutte Ouvriere 2% (+1)

An Ciarraioch

It appears the FN are divided over whether to accept the euro, with the MLP camp citing the post-debate swing as directly down to uncertainty over the single currency, while Philippot has threatened to quit if the pro-euro (and implicitly, pro-EU) stance is taken. Hard to see what would distinguish FN from LR then, unless they double down on immigration and Islam!

https://oeilsurlefront.liberation.fr/les-idees/2017/05/12/sur-l-euro-la-querelle-monte-au-front-national_1569082

Bob24

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

It appears the FN are divided over whether to accept the euro, with the MLP camp citing the post-debate swing as directly down to uncertainty over the single currency, while Philippot has threatened to quit if the pro-euro (and implicitly, pro-EU) stance is taken. Hard to see what would distinguish FN from LR then, unless they double down on immigration and Islam!

For electoral reasons I think they have no choice but softening the stance on the euro (which Le Pen tried to do but was rubbish at during the debate because she doesn't understand economics well).

Softening it doesn't mean becoming all pro-euro/pro-eu though. They could (rightly or wrongly) argue they intend to change it from the inside and don't want to rush the change with a big bang.

Many French are afraid of exiting the EZ as they fear for their savings and purchasing power, but having said that besides people who picked Macron in the first round, all other voters expressed an anti-EU sentiment of some sort (possibly of different degrees and about different topics, but still that is a majority feeling).

Also to remember is that a majority the French voter against the European constitution in 2005 (they don't agree on everything but those people are still a majority of the population spread across Le Pen, Mélanchon, Dupont-Aignan, some of Fillon and most small candidates' electorate).

Chuchote

Whoah - big change: of the 577 députés (TDs) 131 have decided not to stand again in the Législatives!

http://www.lejdd.fr/politique/renouvellement-131-deputes-sortants-ne-se-representeront-pas-3328397

C'est une épidémie : de très nombreux députés ont choisi de ne pas se représenter aux législatives. Ils sont, selon notre décompte, 131 à ce jour, dans une Assemblée de 577 personnes. 131 personnes qui abandonnent soit parce qu'elles se trouvent trop âgés et veulent passer la main, soit parce qu'elles veulent passer à autre chose, soit parce qu'il faut obéir à la règle sur le cumul des mandats ou parce que leur réélection s'annonce compliquée. Tour d'horizon du renouvellement qui s'annonce au Palais Bourbon. Nous avions déjà effectué ce décompte fin février, ils étaient 110. Le phénomène a donc pris de l'ampleur.

Bob24

It's largely due to a new legislation which bans politicians from holding both a national level mandate and a local one. It has been very common for MPs to also be the mayor of a (sometimes large) city, and many of them had to choose which one to give-up.

Adding to that might be the realisation of many socialist MPs that they stand no chance of relelection anyway (the socialist party currently holds 295 seats in parliament and the most optimistic estimates for the upcoming election would give them 50 or so).

An Ciarraioch

It appears Macron will name Edouard Philippe, the R?publicain mayor of Le Havre as his Prime Minister tomorrow. Background sounds interesting - started out as a Socialist, switched to the UMP, and now, presumably, will be joining En Marche. He is reportedly a close ally of Jupp?, which would help in wooing the centre-right:

http://mobile.francetvinfo.fr/politique/emmanuel-macron/six-choses-que-vous-ignorez-peut-etre-sur-edouard-philippe-pressenti-pour-devenir-le-premier-ministre-d-emmanuel-macron_2190663.html#xtref=https://www.google.ie/

Rjd2

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170517/national-front-lurch-towards-crisis-despite-le-pens-10-million-votes

Jesus, you thought The Republicans in America had issues.:pac:

Chuchote

So Macron's named an equal-sorta cabinet - equal numbers of men and women, but the boys have the big jobs.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/macron-s-team-a-careful-blend-of-age-gender-and-background-1.3086725
http://www.politico.eu/article/4-takeaways-on-emmanuel-macrons-first-cabinet/

Interesting times. Macron and his new economics minister are both hot on the bizarre idea of cutting unemployment + sacking 200,000 civil servants.

Hulot - described by the British as a French Attenborough, has a place in cabinet; politico.eu says he "nearly" got the job twice before, while a TV5Monde political programme the other night said he had previously refused to join three cabinets, if I understood it right.

Something that we all thought in our innocence would come out of a Fine Gael government in Ireland is supposed to happen in Macron's clean sweep in France:

First on the agenda, Macron has hinted, will be the law on moralizing politics. Its main point seems to be to prohibit the type of behavior that sank conservative presidential candidate François Fillon earlier this year: MPs won’t be allowed either to employ family members or to hold consultant jobs on the side. Making a big statement on this will allow Macron to remind voters yet again of the problems the Républicains faced in the last election campaign — which will come handy in the current one.

(this from the politico.ie piece, which is giving big play to the fact that En Marche, having broken the Socialist party, is now going after its powerful opposition, the Republicans).

Meanwhile, the National Front seems to be spinning to a chaotic crisis:

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170517/national-front-lurch-towards-crisis-despite-le-pens-10-million-votes

(I see Marion Maréchal-Le Pen's stepping down, which was first played as a loving mammy wanting to mind her two-year-old, is now rebranded as her leaving "to pursue a career in the private sector", which suggests to me that she's doing a Finnegan's Ball and having stepped out when the party was collapsing will attempt to step in again when the moment is right for a power grab.)

Bob24

On Hulot, my guess is he will be out before the end of this mandate. He is more of an activist who really believe in what he does than a politician. Reality will push him appart from this gouvernement (one exemple of topic over which they will clash: nuclear energy).

Edit: and I just saw that since his appointement shares of EDF (France's huge energy corporation and former national energy supplier) have already dropped 6.75% and keep dropping. Won't please Macron's financial backers either.

Chuchote

Bob24 wrote: »

On Hulot, my guess is he will be out before the end of this mandate. He is more of an activist who really believe in what he does than a politician. Reality will push him appart from this gouvernement (one exemple of topic over which they will clash: nuclear energy).

Yeah, isn't one of the senior ministers (can't remember which)* a former executive with Areva, the French nuclear multinational?

On the other hand, Macron's government may yet prove different to others… hard to predict.

* Edit - Prime Minister http://www.euronews.com/2017/05/15/who-is-edouard-philippe

Bob24

Where it won't be different is that ideals usually clash with reality.

The target set be the previous minister to completely move away from nuclear energy is completely orrealistic and she already got some roadblocks (she ignored them because she is career politician but after a while I suspect Hulot will think there are better and more enjoyable ways for him to influence things).

Bob24

So Macron's first approval rate poll is 45% in favour and 46% against. As low as it gets for a newly elected president (even Hollande scored 58% at the same poll when he started), and before having done anything there are already more people against him than in favour. Since historically the only way for approval rates thoughout a mandate has been down (except some temporary spikes at special time such as terrorist attacks), it looks like things will be complicated for Macron and I would expect a lot of strikes/demonstrations in the coming few years.

Rjd2

Rjd2 wrote: »

If you recall the Austrian far right chap was supposedly in the lead in the week before the last vote, but Farage was on television suggesting when he won he would hold a referendum where Austria could decide if they wanted to leave the EU.

It was cat nip for his opponents and Hoefer and his party ended up pretty much telling Farage to f of and downplaying such a scenario.

Wilders toned back a lot of his anti EU rhetoric, while Le Pen at times did suggest she would do the same.

Its no longer "good" populism to hate the EU.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170523/marine-le-pen-ditches-plans-for-frexit-in-shock-u-turn-far-right-leader-reportedly-now-backs-euro-single-currency

And there we go.

All eyes on Florian Philippot now.

Chuchote

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/21/emmanuel-macrons-enjoys-62-per-cent-approval-rating/

Emmanuel Macron enjoys 62 per cent approval rating

President Emmanuel Macron is riding high in the opinion polls two weeks after winning France’s most hotly contested election in decades in which he saw off a challenge from the far-Right and smashed the traditional left-right divide.

Sixty-two percent of people polled in an IFOP survey said they were satisfied with the centrist leader, just above his Socialist predecessor François Hollande's 61 percent rating in May 2012 but below conservative Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007 who stood at 65 percent.

The approval ratings for Edouard Philippe, Mr Macron’s newly-appointed conservative prime minister, stood at 55 percent, also around the average of previous prime ministers at the beginning of their mandates.

Macron does it again. His party is expected to get a large majority in parliamentary elections. Projections have his party winning 400+ seats in the 577 seat National Assembly.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40242531

Nody

Deleted User wrote: »

Macron does it again. His party is expected to get a large majority in parliamentary elections. Projections have his party winning 400+ seats in the 577 seat National Assembly.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40242531

That's impressive; last one I saw had her around the 300 to 350 mark. If it comes through he'll be in a position to really implement his policy (and hopefully finally get France reformed properly).

Bob24

Nody wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

Macron does it again. His party is expected to get a large majority in parliamentary elections. Projections have his party winning 400+ seats in the 577 seat National Assembly.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40242531

That's impressive; last one I saw had her around the 300 to 350 mark. If it comes through he'll be in a position to really implement his policy (and hopefully finally get France reformed properly).

Landslide victory but with 50.2% abstention rate (all times record for this type of election and the only time in history more than half the population didn't vote) it is a mixed-bag.

Basically it is not a huge wave of public support for Macron but rather that voters of other parties stayed at home either because their don't trust their party anymore or didn't think it had any chance of winning. Still, they didn't feel inclined to vote for Macron's party either.

So I am not sure about being in a position to implement any policy he wants as the 50% who didn't vote and the 34% who did vote but picked another party won't disappear and only leave him with 16% of actually expressed public support.

It doesn't change the fact that he will have a confortable majority in parliament (the electoral system is designed to provide that to the leading party), but clearly the 84% who didn't vote for his party will find other ways to have their voice heard and pressure the governement.

Chuchote

At least the French have the sense to hold their elections on Sundays; in Ireland we hold them on weekdays, so a) kids lose a day of school, b) teachers get paid for a day of not teaching c) people who are registered in a different part of the country, like students, don't get around to voting.

If we changed to voting on Sunday it would be a big step forward.

Bob24

Yes weekday voting doesn't make sense to me either.

But having said that people should really register in their place of residence rather that complaining about their polling station being too far (and of course the voting should support it and if it is too complicated to do it should be made easier).

Rjd2

http://www.france24.com/en/20170619-france-macron-party-landslide-parliament-majority-abstention-le-pen-melenchon-socialists

Dominant from Macron, but the record low turn out is pretty worrying, have the French given up on politics?

The far left, far right and the Republicans have little to cheer.

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

http://www.france24.com/en/20170619-france-macron-party-landslide-parliament-majority-abstention-le-pen-melenchon-socialists

Dominant from Macron, but the record low turn out is pretty worrying, have the French given up on politics?

The far left, far right and the Republicans have little to cheer.

For what it is worth, I think they have given up on the current electoral system (including Macron) as it currently stands but not on politics. Some of them (especially Mélanchon voters) are already very organised to do politics in their own way are just waiting for the first batch of measure to take politics into the streets with mass demonstrations.

Chuchote

Almost two-thirds of French voters abstained. Pretty astonishing.

Thomas__

Chuchote wrote: »

Almost two-thirds of French voters abstained. Pretty astonishing.

They´re fed up and election tired, as some say. This election victory and the expectations going along with it and placed on Mr Macron remind me on the first term of ex-President Obama and all the hopes he kindled and what came after him after 8 years, Trump who is the most terrible President the USA ever had to this day. The FN lost it, but if Mr Macron can´t deliver and make a success of his presidency backed by the large amount of seats in Parliament through this election, I guess that the Frustration might become worse and that´s what Le Pen is waiting for.

Thomas__

Chuchote wrote: »

At least the French have the sense to hold their elections on Sundays; in Ireland we hold them on weekdays, so a) kids lose a day of school, b) teachers get paid for a day of not teaching c) people who are registered in a different part of the country, like students, don't get around to voting.

If we changed to voting on Sunday it would be a big step forward.

That wouldn´t be some guarantee for an increase of voters going to the polling stations to cast their vote. But the opening times for the polling stations could be shortened by a couple of hours to say between 6 and 8pm.

Chuchote

Thomas__ wrote: »

That wouldn´t be some guarantee for an increase of voters going to the polling stations to cast their vote. But the opening times for the polling stations could be shortened by a couple of hours to say between 6 and 8pm.

You've clearly never been a shift worker.

Thomas__

Chuchote wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

That wouldn´t be some guarantee for an increase of voters going to the polling stations to cast their vote. But the opening times for the polling stations could be shortened by a couple of hours to say between 6 and 8pm.

You've clearly never been a shift worker.

I never had to vote on a working day, cos I don´t live in the UK, Ireland or any other EU country in which elections are held on working days, only on Sundays. Well, in Germany one has the choice to either vote by letter (ballot paper to be sent to the election authority after issued on demand) or walk to the polling station and cast the vote. That would be an alternative for shift workers, to send the ballot paper in a closed envelope to the election authority which will not be opened until the polling stations have closed on election day. Many use that when they know that they have no time to go to the polling stations for various reasons. There is no charge for that.

As for not being a shift worker, I can assure you that I have done such work some 30 years ago and I know how sickening that is, worst when working on night shifts.

Chuchote

Thomas__ wrote: »

As for not being a shift worker, I can assure you that I have done such work some 30 years ago and I know how sickening that is, worst when working on night shifts.

No, I was talking about how it has to be made possible for people to vote when they're off work.

Very few people are entitled to vote by post in Ireland. Though there are other anomalies; in some cases people who are completely intellectually disabled have a vote, for instance.

Bob24

Thomas__ wrote: »

Chuchote wrote: »

Almost two-thirds of French voters abstained. Pretty astonishing.

They´re fed up and election tired, as some say. This election victory and the expectations going along with it and placed on Mr Macron remind me on the first term of ex-President Obama and all the hopes he kindled and what came after him after 8 years, Trump who is the most terrible President the USA ever had to this day. The FN lost it, but if Mr Macron can´t deliver and make a success of his presidency backed by the large amount of seats in Parliament through this election, I guess that the Frustration might become worse and that´s what Le Pen is waiting for.

Yes I totally think Macron will be the launching pad for someone who talks to the the "peripheral France" as Obama was a launching pad for someone talking to "middle America".

I doubt it will be Le Pen though. She messed-up the elections and is now in a tricky position.

Bob24

Thomas__ wrote: »

Chuchote wrote: »

Almost two-thirds of French voters abstained. Pretty astonishing.

They´re fed up and election tired, as some say. This election victory and the expectations going along with it and placed on Mr Macron remind me on the first term of ex-President Obama and all the hopes he kindled and what came after him after 8 years, Trump who is the most terrible President the USA ever had to this day. The FN lost it, but if Mr Macron can´t deliver and make a success of his presidency backed by the large amount of seats in Parliament through this election, I guess that the Frustration might become worse and that´s what Le Pen is waiting for.

Yes I totally think Macron will be the launching pad for someone who talks to the the "peripheral France" as Obama was a launching pad for someone talking to "middle America".

I doubt it will be Le Pen though. She messed-up the elections and is now in a tricky position.

Christy42

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes I totally think Macron will be the launching pad for someone who talks to the the "peripheral France" as Obama was a launching pad for someone talking to "middle America".

I doubt it will be Le Pen though. She messed-up the elections and is now in a tricky position.

Le Pen is also missing a large bloc that was already flirting with the more extreme side of things. In the US the Republicans were long trying to mix the moderate conservatives and the populist rhetoric. Trump abused that to drag along the Republican base with those he mobilised with his rhetoric.

Le Pen does not seem as much of a public speaker and I still feel Europe is far more wary of a demagogue (where the US system nearly seems built for a cult of personality given the sheer amount of power the president has in general).

Bob24

Chuchote wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

As for not being a shift worker, I can assure you that I have done such work some 30 years ago and I know how sickening that is, worst when working on night shifts.

No, I was talking about how it has to be made possible for people to vote when they're off work.

Very few people are entitled to vote by post in Ireland. Though there are other anomalies; in some cases people who are completely intellectually disabled have a vote, for instance.

In France the law actually covers that. Any employer has to allow for Sunday shift workers to go and vote in persom if they wish to do so. This means that if a shift covers the whole voting period there is a mandatory break during the shift long enough to go from the place of work to the polling station and back.

Thomas__

Bob24 wrote: »

Chuchote wrote: »

Thomas__ wrote: »

As for not being a shift worker, I can assure you that I have done such work some 30 years ago and I know how sickening that is, worst when working on night shifts.

No, I was talking about how it has to be made possible for people to vote when they're off work.

Very few people are entitled to vote by post in Ireland. Though there are other anomalies; in some cases people who are completely intellectually disabled have a vote, for instance.

In France the law actually covers that. Any employer has to allow for Sunday shift workers to go and vote in persom if they wish to do so. This means that if a shift covers the whole voting period there is a mandatory break during the shift long enough to go from the place of work to the polling station and back.

I didn´t know that, thanks for pointing that out.

Thomas__

Christy42 wrote: »

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes I totally think Macron will be the launching pad for someone who talks to the the "peripheral France" as Obama was a launching pad for someone talking to "middle America".

I doubt it will be Le Pen though. She messed-up the elections and is now in a tricky position.

Le Pen is also missing a large bloc that was already flirting with the more extreme side of things. In the US the Republicans were long trying to mix the moderate conservatives and the populist rhetoric. Trump abused that to drag along the Republican base with those he mobilised with his rhetoric.

Le Pen does not seem as much of a public speaker and I still feel Europe is far more wary of a demagogue (where the US system nearly seems built for a cult of personality given the sheer amount of power the president has in general).

I am glad that this woman lost the election, but I wouldn´t underestimate the far-right waiting for their chance to come and take it. Le Pen might look as if she´s finished, but there are others behind her.

Christy42

Thomas__ wrote: »

I am glad that this woman lost the election, but I wouldn´t underestimate the far-right waiting for their chance to come and take it. Le Pen might look as if she´s finished, but there are others behind her.

Agreed. Right now it looks unlikely for the far right to gain serious power in western Europe but that is no need for complacency and assuming the far right is dead when it really isn't.

Rjd2

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes I totally think Macron will be the launching pad for someone who talks to the the "peripheral France" as Obama was a launching pad for someone talking to "middle America".

I doubt it will be Le Pen though. She messed-up the elections and is now in a tricky position.

More likely it will come from a Melenchon style figure from the far left I think.

CelticRambler

Bob24 wrote: »

For what it is worth, I think they have given up on the current electoral system (including Macron) as it currently stands but not on politics.

It was to be expected. They've been asked to go to the polls eight times in the last seven months - twice each for the two mainstream parties' primaries, both of whose candidates got booted out of the race shortly after; then twice for the real presidential election; and twice more for the legislatives which were characterised by the presence of dozens of single-issue, no-hope and various protest candidates.

As I said way back in this thread, the two-round system is no longer fit for purpose. But given the (still) very strong interest in politics, France would do well to change over to Ireland's STV system. If that had been in place for these elections, the make-up of the Assemblée would have been very different.

But as he's got his majority, let's hope Macron delivers on his promises and doesn't give in to the inevitable strikes and protest marches that'll follow each reform.

Chuchote

I hope he doesn't dismantle one of the best societies in Europe when small tweaks would fix its problems.

Bob24

CelticRambler wrote: »

Bob24 wrote: »

For what it is worth, I think they have given up on the current electoral system (including Macron) as it currently stands but not on politics.

It was to be expected. They've been asked to go to the polls eight times in the last seven months - twice each for the two mainstream parties' primaries, both of whose candidates got booted out of the race shortly after; then twice for the real presidential election; and twice more for the legislatives which were characterised by the presence of dozens of single-issue, no-hope and various protest candidates.

As I said way back in this thread, the two-round system is no longer fit for purpose. But given the (still) very strong interest in politics, France would do well to change over to Ireland's STV system. If that had been in place for these elections, the make-up of the Assemblée would have been very different.

But as he's got his majority, let's hope Macron delivers on his promises and doesn't give in to the inevitable strikes and protest marches that'll follow each reform.

I won't redo the debate as we had it before, but while I agree election overload is part of the explanation I don't think the two rounds system is the problem. Primary elections (which are now an obvious failure for those who organised them as the two second round contenders refused to take part in anything like that) were a stupid idea in an electoral system which already has two rounds and two sets of election. These are to blame alongside Chirac's idea to shorten the presidential mandate to 5 years and synchronise it with pariamentary elections.