The Next President of France will be...

Rjd2

Fascinating if Juppe gets involved. I don't think MLP would be to upset, she'd struggle v him in a second round, but there will be plenty of pissed of Fillon supporters who backed him rather than Juppe as they feared Juppe was weak on security and terror. Le Pen is the most obvious home for those supporters.

Macron has momentum, but Juppe would appeal more to those in the centre than Fillon.

Truly fascinating race, and to make it even more crazy, Melenchion got a vote in this poll to become president.:eek:

Bob24

Oh yes I think if Juppé takes over from Fillon, Macron will drop instantly. Many people who voted for Juppé at the LR primary election backed Macron as they found Fillon too conservative, but if their initial choice is back with a vengeance they'll go back to him. And as you said on the other hand a decent part of the core 20% who still support Fillon no matter what because they are aligned to the conservative right will be tempted by Le Pen as they will feel the candidate they chose at the primary election is being stolen from them.

Macron must actually be praying for Fillon not to withdraw as currently the fact that there is no-one else on the centre left and no-one on the centre right is what gives him a window to presidency.

Le Pen ... I am not sure. Juppé would probably let her get more votes than Fillon in the first round and look stronger, but her preferred opponent in the second round must be Marcon, which would be much less likely to make it if Juppé was the LR candidate.

blackwhite

Have been working in France this week, and today's lunch talk was all hope that Juppe will return to the race.

Small sample to deal with, but he could be quite strong if Fillon steps aside

KingBrian2

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I've seen a few comments on line like "Brexit was just the start, just wait tilll Le Pen and Wilders get elected and watch the EU collapse".

While on the day Le Pen has a fighting chance, and I'd be wary of writing her off, I've no idea though how they think Wilders will be in power considering even the most favourable opinion polls (last February) still only gave his Party for Freedom 25% of the seats. They're currently predicted to win about 19%.

On the off chance the Party for Freedom do cobble together a coalition, every other party with 10+ seats seems pretty pro EU (or at least EU tolerant, like Sinn Féin), so I can't see a referendum being part of the programme for government.

For many in the Wilders and Le Pen camp this election is an excuse to take down the whole system. The easy voters will be appeased by this message. The downtrodden might not bother to vote which would be a blow to left wing groups. France & the Netherlands are increasingly turning inwards if the polls are to be believed.

Rjd2

http://www.politico.eu/article/fillon-puts-his-fate-in-hands-of-party/

Huge rally today for Fillon, didn't hint at stepping down, but seems to have softened his tone and going to leave it to the party. That's probably end of the line for him now.

Yourself isit

I saw in le figaro that macron made a speech saying that French culture didn't exist. Woukd have thought that would be the end of a french political career.

Rjd2

Yourself isit wrote: »

I saw in le figaro that macron made a speech saying that French culture didn't exist. Woukd have thought that would be the end of a french political career.

Macron plays to whatever audience is in front of him, wouldn't put it past him to start aping Le Pen if he needed to. :pac:


Its not actually set in stone what happens now, Fillon will likely step down, but not a total cert, Juppe may run on his platform, or he could be asked to run on Fillons platform, or Baroin could run himself or even with Fillon.

Insane election.

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

http://www.politico.eu/article/fillon-puts-his-fate-in-hands-of-party/

Huge rally today for Fillon, didn't hint at stepping down, but seems to have softened his tone and going to leave it to the party. That's probably end of the line for him now.

Yeah I'm wondering if the rally was a last one to show he still has support before withdrawing due to other factors. Even though that part of his weekend was successful, *many* more LR party leaders than ever before had call for him to go and a good bit have refused to join the rally. Even with support from party members, if most other top leaders start to pull the plug he is going nowhere. Another exemple that primary elections are not fit for the French political system.

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

Yourself isit wrote: »

I saw in le figaro that macron made a speech saying that French culture didn't exist. Woukd have thought that would be the end of a french political career.

Macron plays to whatever audience is in front of him, wouldn't put it past him to start aping Le Pen if he needed to. :pac:


Its not actually set in stone what happens now, Fillon will likely step down, but not a total cert, Juppe may run on his platform, or he could be asked to run on Fillons platform, or Baroin could run himself or even with Fillon.

Insane election.

Macron will indeed tell the crowd what it wants to hear, but looking at his original group of backers, they are all libertarian/liberal globalists. So when he says "there is no French culture but there are cultures in France", I think this is really what he feels (i.e. he is being a hardcore multiculturalist saying that the history of French culture and its critical mass don't make it more relevant to France in his eyes that other minority cultures which have came from abroad in the more recent history).

Bob24

It's really looking like House of Cards at this stage. Fillon was interviewed live on TV 1 hours ago and confirmed he has no intention to withdraw. And just a few minutes later Juppé posted on Twitter that he will be making an announcement tomorrow morning at 10.30AM.

Rjd2

Bob24 wrote: »

It's really looking like House of Cards at this stage. Fillon was interviewed live on TV 1 hours ago and confirmed he has no intention to withdraw. And just a few minutes later Juppé posted on Twitter that he will be making an announcement tomorrow morning at 10.30AM.

10.30 french time?

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

10.30 french time?

Yes correct.

https://twitter.com/alainjuppe/status/838471112031887361

Really strange timing, the tweet was posted just about 10 minutes after Fillon said live on TV that he was not giving-up.

I see two options: either Juppé will say he has absolutely no intention of running and people should stop speculating about him, or there was a clash on the way forward and he will declare himself a candidate against the will of Fillon but with the support a majority of the party leaders.

Or is there any other worthy announcement he could make tomorrow morning I am not thinking of?

KingBrian2

Bob24 wrote: »

Macron will indeed tell the crowd what it wants to hear, but looking at his original group of backers, they are all libertarian/liberal globalists. So when he says "there is no French culture but there are cultures in France", I think this is really what he feels (i.e. he is being a hardcore multiculturalist saying that the history of French culture and its critical mass don't make it more relevant to France in his eyes that other minority cultures which have came from abroad in the more recent history).

Macron is positioning himself as the anti Merkel candidate in France. The German Chancellor has called out the errors of multiculturalism and here we have in the French presidential election one of the candidates running on a multicultural platform. I don't see that playing well with the French working class voters who have been frighted of Islam by the far right.

Bob24

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Macron is positioning himself as the anti Merkel candidate in France. The German Chancellor has called out the errors of multiculturalism and here we have in the French presidential election one of the candidates running on a multicultural platform. I don't see that playing well with the French working class voters who have been frighted of Islam by the far right.

Clearly not indeed. But at the same time they are not the group of voters Macron is after and he will happily let Mélanchon and Le Pen fight for them. He is following the so called stratégie Terra Nova (after the name a French liberal left wing think tank which came up with it) which is for the "moderate" left to give up on the working class as a core group of voters and replace it with an agglomerate of educated and successful young people from the cities and any kind of identifiable minority groups (cultural, ethnic, religious, sexual, etc). To make it short this is quite similar to what the American left has done over the past decades and has worked well for Bill Clinton or Barack Obama before failing for Hillary Clinton; but this doesn't mean it is a definite failure or that the outcome will necessarily be the same in France.

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/838500383492345856

Juppe considering not running, time to smash the Fillon prices with the bookies before they wake up:D

Bob24

To be honest I think it would be the wisest decision for Juppé (and he is a wise man). If he forces Fillon* out and then loses the election (which is possible) he would be seen as the man who not only forced is way in against the will of supporters on the ground, but also destroyed the party. Seeing it that way would probably be unfair to him, but this is likely what the mood would be like after a failure to win the election.

I also think he is fed-up with come-backs, impressions of strong support, and subsequent failures and has learnt from those.

Anyway at this stage anything is possible so I will wait as I only believe something I hear directly from him, not from unnamed source :-)



* The man chosen over Juppé by 2 voters to 1 at the primary election

KingBrian2

It is an exhausting campaign.

An Ciarraioch

Bob24 wrote: »

To be honest I think it would be the wisest decision for Juppé (and he is a wise man). If he forces Fillon* out and then loses the election (which is possible) he would be seen as the man who not only forced is way in against the will of supporters on the ground, but also destroyed the party. Seeing it that way would probably be unfair to him, but this is likely what the mood would be like after a failure to win the election.

I also think he is fed-up with come-backs, impressions of strong support, and subsequent failures and has learnt from those.

Anyway at this stage anything is possible so I will wait as I only believe something I hear directly from him, not from unnamed source :-)



* The man chosen over Juppé by 2 voters to 1 at the primary election

Hamon about to overtake Fillon!


https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/838491866899214336/photo/1

But Juppe would make runoff:

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/838492165101735938/photo/1

Bob24

Juppé: "I confirm once and for all that I am not a candidate", "my time has passed".

So that's one thing sorted.

Rjd2

Calling it now, Baroin will be their choice.

Bob24

Or they will let Fillon have a go. I think it is still unclear.

Chips Lovell

First poll that puts Macron ahead of Le Pen in first round voting. One poll, so may be an outlier. His everything to everybody position is bound to get more scrutiny, but he also appears to benefiting from a lack of serious alternatives given Fillon's collapse.

Bob24

Looks like a good number of socialist party leaders are about to betray Hamon and join Macron: http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/03/09/35003-20170309ARTFIG00099-le-texte-de-ralliement-de-l-aile-droite-du-ps-a-macron.php

Not sure how he will react and how good it is got him tough: his stance of being neither left nor right (or both left and right depending on the day) is already damaged with too much support from the left and not enough from the right; if the Hollande gang joins him at this stage it will make it more difficult for him to keep looking like a new man.

And on a side-note, it is quite pathetic to see these people betraying their party for someone they didn't originally support - just for the sake of getting seats in parliament :-D (same applied on the right to the UDI centre right party who heavily criticised Fillon and ask the party yo find another candidate, until they realised that they need him for deals to get reserved seats in easy right-wing constituencies)

CelticRambler

Bob24 wrote: »

And on a side-note, it is quite pathetic to see these people betraying their party for someone they didn't originally support - just for the sake of getting seats in parliament :-D

Don't agree with you there. I said way back in this thread that the next President would be decided in the first round (even if it takes two ) and wondered if the French would abandon their old tribal behaviours to make sure their vote counted for something.

That's exactly what's happening. :cool: In the absence of a Hamon-Mélenchon alliance, anyone who votes "Left" knows it's a wasted vote, and they'll be forced to choose between MLP and "not MLP" in round two. If they switch now, and lend their support to Macron, not only will they avoid Fillon making a sufficient come-back to make it a Right vs. Far-Right second round, but there's every likelihood they'll steal MLP's moment of poll-topping glory too.

Bob24

I was talking about Socialist Party leaders and MPs. I think you are talking about voters?

CelticRambler

No - I'm talking about the PS députés (and others). Someone has to take the lead for the voters to follow. Isn't there a parallel with the UUP/SDLP transfers in the recent NI elections? The UUP chose to sink their own ship so as to take the wind out of the DUP sails.

What is the point in anyone voting for Hamon or Mélenchon when they know they haven't a hope of being elected, while making a "noble gesture" could ensure that France's dignity on the world stage is preserved with MLP relegated to second (or third) place?

An Ciarraioch

They'll wait until the Assembly elections - then EM and PS can agree a constituency carve-up, similar to the "pan-Left" tickets of previous votes.

Bob24

CelticRambler wrote: »

No - I'm talking about the PS députés (and others). Someone has to take the lead for the voters to follow. Isn't there a parallel with the UUP/SDLP transfers in the recent NI elections? The UUP chose to sink their own ship so as to take the wind out of the DUP sails.

What is the point in anyone voting for Hamon or Mélenchon when they know they haven't a hope of being elected, while making a "noble gesture" could ensure that France's dignity on the world stage is preserved with MLP relegated to second (or third) place?

I think what's happening is different though: it is more MPs following potential voters (to preserve their seats in parliament) than them leading voters - and Macron knows he needs to be careful about accepting too many of them if he doesn't want to look like the new socialist party (which would repulse voters). If for some reason the wind starts bowing the other way again they will return (as I mentioned, another more obvious exemple is the UDI party which officially withdrew his support to Fillon when they thought he was a goner, and then came back supporting him a few days later when they realised there was no plan B and they needed him to get some seats in parliament ... pretty pathetic in my opinion).

And no matter what, Mélanchon voters aren't going to go anywhere near Macron at least in the first round. What would they vote for a very liberal candidate while they support a very state controlled economy?

Really Macron, Hamon and Mélanchon represent 3 very different flavours of the left which can't work together that well. As Fillon and Le Pen are also incompatible flavours of the right.

It is a mess really, I think no matter who gets elected it will be very hard for them to have a proper supportive majority in parliament.

InTheTrees

I wish the poll at the beginning of this thread could be reset.

CelticRambler

Bob24 wrote: »

It is a mess really, I think no matter who gets elected it will be very hard for them to have a proper supportive majority in parliament.

:pac: But sure that's been the story in France for the last twenty years!

Bob24

CelticRambler wrote: »

:pac: But sure that's been the story in France for the last twenty years!

To some extend yes, but not from day 1 and not with offers to change everything on the table. Even Hollande who was probably the worst president from that perspective had a majority and did some things in the first year or 2. He hasn't been able to keep his own MPs in control during the second half of his mandate, but that's another story and technically he did have majority.

Assuming the next president will be Macron, Fillon, or Le Pen, I think any of them would find it difficult to get enough MPs to have a clear majority, and none of them has an obvious coalition partner.

CelticRambler

But the president shouldn't be looking for a coalition partner. He (or she) is supposed to be above the silliness of party politics. That's where Macron has such an advantage - he can speak to different audiences and make them believe he's taking account of their interests, which means he's got the potential to make a real difference over the next four years instead of wasting time and money reversing the last president's policies "just because".

Bob24

French institutions give the president a lot of executive powers and a special relationship with the population, but they still they need a party with majority in parliament (or a coalition partner to get that majority) in order to get things done.

Bob24

No big surprise (all late comers are small candidates with very little electoral potential), but the official list of candidates for the election has been published. Here with their party names and approximate position on the political spectrum from left to right:

Rjd2

1ST debate here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Ydto3Iyzic

Rjd2

3 and a half hour long debate.:eek:

Nobody had a perfect night, however thought Hamon when he wasn't talking about economics was impressive. He and Melenchon were able to beat down Macron who clearly wasn't comfortable when attacked by either. Macron had an unremarkable night, only seemed comfortable sparring with Le Pen and at times came across as pretty bland. Its unlikely to have done much damage, but I'd be concerned if I was on his team about any future debates,its not a strong point for him.

Le Pen was to be polite "erratic" when the discussion turned towards economics, she trotted out the greatest hits which will satisfy the base, but I doubt she would have gained many new supporters tonight.

To sum um Fillon to quote a strange man was "Low energy~!", his base needed much more after a brutal few months then that.

Melenchon was MVP with some fantastic quips but sadly for him, this is probably to little to late.

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/TheLocalFrance/status/843976681828352004

French public disagree with me.:pac:

To be fair plenty commentators thought he underwhelmed, but the public clearly love him and the fact that he is able to present himself as something new to the tried and tested obvious hugely attractive qualities. It won't have hurt that he was at his most effective when attacking Le Pen who is such a polarising individual.

Very harsh on Hamon though that poll though, but I suppose Melenchon did steal a lot of his thunder.

bleach94

Thoughts on last night...

I didn't catch the last half an hour or so of the debate, but it seemed to me that the main candidates had mixed evenings. Macron seemed out of his comfort zone in having to openly spar with other candidates. He seemed a tad swallowed up and at times only just held his own. Fillon was almost totally passive and only came to life about halfway through the debate. Le Pen as usual was adversarial despite being attacked by the other two and essentially everyone else. Like her or not, she is a emphatic and resolute in defending her principles no matter how abhorrent some of them are.

Melenchon brought the humour, although his general vision for France seems a bit of a case of wishful thinking. He offset the others nicely, notably Fillon who seemed intent on trying to look as simpering and "presidential" as possible.

Not much to say on Hamon, thought he was pretty unremarkable. Seems Macron has his number on the left (as well as some on the right obviously).

Watched the debate in college with a load of French Erasmus students. With my reasonable level of the language it was hard to understand everything (especially when candidates started shouting over each other) but the French were roaring laughing at some of the quips!

As a final note... It was nice to see a debate relatively focused on policy rather than on personal scandal. Certainly a change from other high-profile debates we've seen recently!

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/844190709058097152

https://twitter.com/pierrebri/status/844225810714234880

Oh dear. Not much to smile about for the Fillon team, he could be done after this.

Macron is clear favourite right now, but its still not an absolute cert, he is still prone to errors.

http://www.politico.eu/article/3-obstacles-on-macrons-path-to-the-presidency/

Bob24

Polls for this week seem to indicate two winners (Macron and Mélanchon) and two losers (Hamon and Le Pen) for the first TV debate.

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/845257786518896640

She's broke again lads:pac:

Its astonishing the decline of the socialist party, it was pointed out that Macron needs to be very careful here, a few Socialists backing you is ok, but not to many as whether we like it or not that party is poison.

http://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-tries-to-survive-socialist-embrace-france-election-president-jean-yves-le-drian/

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

Its astonishing the decline of the socialist party, it was pointed out that Macron needs to be very careful here, a few Socialists backing you is ok, but not to many as whether we like it or not that party is poison.

Yes, Hamon going down too much is not good for Macron as it will push more and more socialists to jump ship.

Le Drian is a good catch though, he is one of the very few (if not the only) ministers of Hollande who has been praised by commenters across the whole political spectrum for doing a good job.

Rjd2

https://twitter.com/pierrebri/status/846804514548174848

The endorsement from Valls is coming tomorrow, will be interesting to see if Macron benefits much from it.

Bob24

I don't see how he can benefit as it is one more argument to call him th new socialist party and the continuation of the current government (the kiss of death would be for Hollande to endorse him, which Hollande wants to do but knows it wouldn't be beneficial).

Macron knows this increasingly obvious support from many socialists is becoming a problem and I read yesterday he is setting new rules as to who can join his campaign.

Bob24

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/pierrebri/status/846804514548174848

The endorsement from Valls is coming tomorrow, will be interesting to see if Macron benefits much from it.

And he has now made an announcement: http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2017/03/29/97001-20170329FILWWW00059-presidentielle-manuel-valls-votera-emmanuel-macron.php

Apparently all he said is that he will vote for Macron though, so it seems like a limited endorsement.

Complete betrayal of the commitment he made when he took part in the socialist primary election by the way: all candidates solemnly promised to support whoever would win. While I understand Valls can't support Hamon as their political views are very different, it shows how misguided and hypocritical this idea of primary election is in France.

CelticRambler

I've just heard him (i.e. speak his own words, not interpreted by a print-journalist) and he quite clearly said that he's going to vote for Macron, but he is not endorsing/supporting Macron as a candidate. He said it's a purely pragmatic decision - Hamon has no chance of being elected, so he (Valls) must give his (one and only) vote to candidate who is most likely to serve France's interest.

And that's not Marine Le Pen.

Bob24

He said "Ce n'est pas un ralliement, c'est une prise de position" (I am not joining him, I am taking a stance).

So yes of course he is not going to campaign for him or ask for some kind if political ticket (not that Macron wants him to anyway), but in politics when you are an important figure and publicly say you will vote for someone, you know it is some type of light endorsement (especially when you have been a minister during most of the presidency of someone who belongs to your party, have taken part of the primary election for that party, and end-up saying you will vote for someone who is not the official candidate of that party).

Previous examples confirm many voters see it that way and remember these stances. For example Bayrou who said he would vote for Hollande without officially backing him in the second round of the 2012 election knows it. At that time he lost a lot of his more right leaning electorate and was never really able to win it back (it even came back to haunt him in the past few months as his support to Juppé ended-up being more of a burden than anything else as it was a way to associate Juppé to Hollande whom right wing voters despise, and he was not strong enough in the polls to stand on his own feet as a candidate as he had done for the previous elections).

Also Hamon who is already not doing great will probably suffer from this: Valls acknowledging that he will vote for another candidate will weaken Hamon's legitimacy with Valls backers even more (and they were a pretty descend chunk of the electorate on the second round of the socialist primary election).

Rjd2

So looking at the betting element of this, the Macron value is gone, yep he likely wins, but having backed him a few months ago, I have zero interest in topping up at 1/2.

Le Pen is probably no value for someone who is struggling to get within 20% in the second round also.

So side markets the bookies are offering,Macron is still the outsider for the first round despite beating MLP on a regular basis more recently. Anyone tempted to back Macron at odds against?

An other market the bookies are offering is Le Pen's first round percentage,

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/le-pen-1st-round-vote-share

Don't see any value there either.

What do we think the best Le Pen can do percentage wise first round? I suspect mid to high twenties is her ceiling, but if you disagree there is probably some value to be had.;)

An Ciarraioch

Rjd2 wrote: »

So looking at the betting element of this, the Macron value is gone, yep he likely wins, but having backed him a few months ago, I have zero interest in topping up at 1/2.

Le Pen is probably no value for someone who is struggling to get within 20% in the second round also.

So side markets the bookies are offering,Macron is still the outsider for the first round despite beating MLP on a regular basis more recently. Anyone tempted to back Macron at odds against?

An other market the bookies are offering is Le Pen's first round percentage,

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/le-pen-1st-round-vote-share

Don't see any value there either.

What do we think the best Le Pen can do percentage wise first round? I suspect mid to high twenties is her ceiling, but if you disagree there is probably some value to be had.;)

Going by Europe Elects, seems a fairly narrow poll range: 24-27%.

Inquitus

Having seen the recent elections in Germany and the Netherlands it certainly seems a case of Emperor Trumps New Clothes, where populism as a concept has been exposed for the empty rhetoric it is and common sense is again beginning to prevail in the more politically intelligent European nations. I fail to see how Le Pen has any hope of winning the French presidency, it looked a long shot 6 months ago, and seems a much longer shot now.