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The Next President of France will be...
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An Ciarraioch wrote: »One stat struck me in the Sunday papers a few weeks ago - 75% of French backed the euro, so seems Brexit may actually have pushed voters back towards the centre.
I think the peak of EU bashing was Brexit since then its been a case of the familiar is maybe not as bad as the unknown!
Even Le Pen has slightly toned down her criticism of the Euro as its bad politics for her.
https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/844271413246746625
I said earlier in the thread, one of her huge issues is how poorly she does with old people and her bashing of it does her harm as those are the people who are most attached to Europe and as everyone knows, old people decide elections.
Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »She could certainly win the 1st round @1.8 as some sort of protest vote.
But she won't win the presidency this time round, under the current context.
If the election took place last year or a week after the marseille tragedy there would be very strong support, but this month the protests have actually been against the state itself and the policing of it's citizens. Factor in Netherlands very recent elections and it's a no win this time.
Probably her biggest downfall is lack of any approachable charisma, a French Farage cheeky type chappie could have worked it for her party much better.
Macron @1.53 isn't great value, but viable.
I've backed Macron a few times at prices between 9/2 to 7/2, so happy with my position on him. The 1.53 I do think is value for someone who is winning the second round by 20 odd points, but I never back such short prices tbh so will swerve. I was just looking for value elsewhere.
On Le Pen?
Her price is poor, all the value on her has gone since trump as bookies are terrified to take her on.
I agree also, she is incredibly dull, watched the debate the other week and she has very little charisma. Her niece on the other hand has huge charisma, but her hardline politics will terrify many.0 -
CrabRevolution wrote: »I commented on the Dutch election thread about the strange thought process of "Trump and Brexit won, therefore all nationalist, populist, anti immigrant movements will now win all elections in every country they contest across the entire world".
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Yeah spot on. I don't mind the man down the pub thinking like that, because its not his job to be politically informed, they are many political issues, you'd get more sense talking to the wall than me about, however its the journalists and many of them writing for left leaning publications like to scaremonger when it comes to these sort of parties. Lets be honest, these populists are fantastic click bait whether left, right, centre or vertical.
Mason Sparse Topping wrote: »I'd dis-associate any bandied about correlation with Brexit/Trump, they both won on their own separate unique merits, against the odds.
Unlike the UK, France is a neighbour to Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Spain, Andorra and Monaco.
As such, whilst there is a small possibility of her winning, the risk (under this current context of Brexit) is far far too great and severe for anyone.
Ask again in a few years and things might be very very different.
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Aye, Brexit, Trump and Le Pen are different beasts totally. The obvious one as I stated in the above post, the oldies who supposedly ruined the future of the British youth, their equivalents in France are a huge problem for Le Pen as they distrust her for so many reasons.0 -
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A couple of interesting sondages - how the candidates are doing in opinion polls, from Paris Match http://www.parismatch.com/La-presidentielle-en-temps-reel
and how much press coverage the individual candidates are getting, from Le Journal du Dimanche http://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/Presidentielle-2017-qui-est-le-candidat-le-plus-cite-dans-la-presse-chaque-jour
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Another day, another sondage - the youth vote:
Source: diplomeo
A little bit of education goes a long way: as soon as the teenagers get away from their redneck communes and into the real world, they quickly realise how disastrous a Le Pen presidency would be for France.
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CelticRambler wrote: »A little bit of education goes a long way: as soon as the teenagers get away from their redneck communes and into the real world, they quickly realise how disastrous a Le Pen presidency would be for France.
This sounds a bit condescending and possibly an illustration of why France (and other countries) is split-up between two parts of the population which don't understand each other.
Also I think you make a mistake in your analysis saying the young necessarily change their mind when they leave their home-town to go stutying. "lycéen" would include most of a generation (but not all). "etudiant" is a significantly smaller subset which would only include the 60% of who attend higher education (and importantly with a different distribution: as opposed to secondary school which most kids attend, amongst students kids of urbanites and qualified professionals are over-represented compared to kids of low-skilled workers, the unemployed, or people from the countryside). So the two columns on the chart you posted don't really represent the same group people who changed their mind over time: they represent two different subsets of the population (some might have changed their mind, but there is no way to tell).
My view is more that globalisation as it currently happens is doing a service to those educated people who live in large cities connected to the global economy, and a disservice to those who live in smaller towns and/or are less educated (specifically for France, geographer Christophe Guilluy has explained and documented very well how this is at play - and for reference he is far from being a Le Pen backer and rather a social democrat). So no voters are more stupid: they just vote for a candidate which is strongly in favour or strongly against current globalisation rules depending on whether they perceive them as a good or a bad thing for their personal interest and the one of their family/area (and in that respect it is exactly the same as the Trump and Brexit vote).
Unless we think society can be functional only with highly educated people living in large cities and doing professional jobs (what you call "the real world" as opposed to the "redneck communes"?), neither side of the argument is valid and both can be called populist in their own way as in they just tell their target audience what it wants to hear rather than looking at the whole picture and addressing everyone). Most of us would probably agree however that society needs a mix of more and less educated people as well as city living and country living in order to function well, and therefore needs to cater for all those groups to remain stable (if one of them becomes too dominant the other ones will revolt in a way or another).
Very good piece here by a pollster who explains how social classes are as strong discriminant for which candidate people will choose: http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/politique/2017/03/27/31001-20170327ARTFIG00204-jerome-sainte-marie-macron-revelateur-du-vote-de-classe.php0 -
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Also I think you make a mistake in your analysis saying the young necessarily change their mind when they leave their home-town to go stutying. "lycéen" would include most of a generation (but not all). "etudiant" is a significantly smaller subset which would only include the 60% of who attend higher education ... So the two columns on the chart you posted don't really represent the same group people who changed their mind over time: they represent two different subsets of the population.
No mistake - just choosing to not analyse it to see if anyone would pick up on the difference between the two populations! In the "youth vote" surveys linked to earlier, the situation is more clearly described, showing that LePen draws higher levels of support from those who join the workforce at an early age, i.e. leave school with a Bac Pro at best, compared to those who are "better educated".My view is more that globalisation as it currently happens is doing a service to those educated people who live in large cities connected to the global economy, and a disservice to those who live in smaller towns and/or are less educated. So no voters are more stupid: they just vote for a candidate which is strongly in favour or strongly against current globalisation rules depending on whether they perceive them as a good or a bad thing for their personal interest and the one of their family/area (and in that respect it is exactly the same as the Trump and Brexit vote).
I don't agree with the "town vs country" divide. Although someone last year produced a report showing that support for the FN correlates directly with distance from the nearest railway station, I live in the countryside, and there's an overwhelming anti-Le Pen sentiment in all the rural areas I visit. In recent years, many many rural communities have responded to the désertification that has affected them by actively encouraging immigration, of foreigners as well as from other areas of France. When the natives see that one family of immigrants is all it takes to save the local school, isolationism is quickly stamped out.
It's in urban and suburban areas that I come across the greatest levels of support for the FN, especially amongst the young. These are indeed the guys and girls who do a Bac Pro that isn't going to get them any work, not because the work is being taken by immigrants, but because the work just isn't there.
A classic example is unambitious teenage girls. I was sitting in on job-centre training programme when the animatrice asked the girls (16-20yo) what they wanted to do. "Work with children" was the unanimous answer. The animatrice (who'd obviously heard this a thousand times already) went on to show them that there are no jobs in childcare. The number of children in France is dropping, the jobs available are few and far between because there's no magic money available from the state any more, and anyone who has a job is going to keep it until they retire (later than before). The demand for young (female) labour is in geriatric care, she pointed out, and you should have seen the faces of the teenagers. :mad: So what happens? They re-train to look after animals instead (no jobs there either) or do hair-dressing/beauty-therapy/whatever, but not geriatric services. The retirement homes employ every immigrant who turns up and asks for a job because they need someone to do the work. And then the young'uns (and their parents :rolleyes:) complain about the immigrants pushing them out. That's the stupidity, which we've seen in the Brexit and Trump campaigns.0 -
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CelticRambler wrote: »Another day, another sondage - the youth vote:
Source: diplomeo
A little bit of education goes a long way: as soon as the teenagers get away from their redneck communes and into the real world, they quickly realise how disastrous a Le Pen presidency would be for France.
They just swap their support for Hamon and Melenchon. Hardly an improvement.0 -
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Yep! The same "rust-belt" mentality that put Trump into power. These people just can't see that it's the pure-blooded white Christian French themselves that have destroyed French industry, piling unaffordable charges onto businesses to pay for excessively generous health/social/retirement benefits. Oh, and maybe if they didn't physcially assault company managers and burn their factories to the ground every time they go on strike, it might make France less unattractive to foreign investors ...
But hey, I'm not complaining! I wouldn't have more offers of work than I can fit in a week if my French colleagues weren't so obsessive about doing things the way they've always been done, and leaving so many vacancies where things need to be done differently!
(Over the last two years I've worked a fair bit in the area where that video was filmed - never met so many chronically sick, alcoholic and depressed people in one place. :eek: I reckon it's all the toxic waste in the ground from WW1&2 getting into their water and vegetables ... )0 -
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Latest Ifop poll has 77% of those surveyed reckoning that Mélonchon is "honest" http://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/SONDAGE-Melenchon-le-candidat-qui-incarne-le-mieux-les-valeurs-de-la-gauche-857648
Meanwhile, on the right…
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Dunno that you can really call Macron left, though
It really is a matter of what people define as left, but to make it simple: if someone thinks Hollande is left, they should also think Macron is left. They are basically the same left as the likes of Tony Blair or Bill/Hillary Clinton (the "third way" as Blair liked to say). And Mélanchon is their Corbynn/Sanders (with poor Hamon in the middle not understanding what is going on and watching his new kingdom collapse before he can even enjoy it, as those 2 versions of the left can't coexist in a single party any-more).0 -
Guys bookies aren't Gospel when it comes to politics, but the fact that they have Francois Asselinea ahead of Hamon is ****ing hilarious/depressing depending on your political leanings.
Fillon I see is shoetening up, yes he is possibly corrupt, but he representing a huge party and just slaughtered Juppe only a few months ago, he isn't dead yet!
Melenchion also surging een though its to late, might have some twists and turns before Macron wins in May.
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