Werewolf III - Winter Is Coming - Complete - Village victory

sullivlo

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

if my maths are correct then we have a 29% chance of lynching a baddie. (3 baratheon, 3 lannister, 1 nk diveded by 24 players left).

they're seem like decent odds to me. next question is who to lynch?

Yes. But tomorrow morning the population will be down to 20. One from the lynch and one from each group.

Unless someone is saved by the GA.

We'll know more tomorrow when we can see who voted for who, and look at patterns emerging. The seer will also have some info, and the priest might be able to hint at remaining roles.

So today's lynching is a stab in the dark.

These are some of the accusations that have been made:
- yosser suspects me to be the NK (no proof)
- several for mick after his odd posts
- some for shatter after triple posting

As its a shot in the dark, I propose we race mick and shatter. Both had bizarre posts, so if they are tasks we have a 66% chance of hitting a baddie.

Thoughts?

Nopeare

andy125 wrote: »

OK guys we need to decide who we are running for lynch and we need to decide of we are going to put are votes on thread

Should we run 2 or 3 people for lynch given the fact we have 2 separate groups?

Should we reval who we are voting for or should we keep quite?

Let's get some organization going and constructive chat

I think we definitely post here for votes.

As for racing people I think racing 2 is far more telling. If we are racing 3 and lets say one is Baratheon or a Lannister it makes it easier splitting votes and turning attention towards other players. While if 2 are been raced with smaller numbers they need to band together if they're at risk, and can be a bit more telling in my opinion.

As to who to race I've no idea really yet

sullivlo

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

I wouldn't be so sure of this. The rules may differ of course, but last time out the wolves didn't know who the assassin was.

Maybe GM can confirm?

sullivlo

Uriel. wrote: »

At this stage, y0ssar1an22 would seem a good candidate to run along side MJ... but it's early in the day yet I suppose.

Agreed. Yossar another potential candidate with his baseless accusations.

Is there any merit in racing three?

Maximus Alexander

sullivlo wrote: »

Yes. But tomorrow morning the population will be down to 20. One from the lynch and one from each group.

Unless someone is saved by the GA.

We'll know more tomorrow when we can see who voted for who, and look at patterns emerging. The seer will also have some info, and the priest might be able to hint at remaining roles.

So today's lynching is a stab in the dark.

These are some of the accusations that have been made:
- yosser suspects me to be the NK (no proof)
- several for mick after his odd posts
- some for shatter after triple posting

As its a shot in the dark, I propose we race mick and shatter. Both had bizarre posts, so if they are tasks we have a 66% chance of hitting a baddie.

Thoughts?

Yeah I'm happy enough with those anyway Sulli, those three have had the weirdest posts so far and that's all we have to go on at this point.

Uriel.

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

i think sullvio is the NK

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

why not? its got to be someone. you seem like a like candidate to me

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

perhaps we could lynch uriel tonight, something seems off about him

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

:P

its just amusing seeing the reactions of people when you throw out a completely unfounded accusation

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

this does seem suspicious. perhaps we should look into jason a bit more

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

you've just been moved to the top of my list.

This string of messing, isn't at all helpful to the village. It creates so much noise that even if the person is a villager they do more harm than good.

Uriel.

sullivlo wrote: »

Agreed. Yossar another potential candidate with his baseless accusations.

Is there any merit in racing three?

personally I am not sure that running three will necessarily tell us a lot, given there's an extra team. but am open to suggested strategies that might work with a 2 or a 3 person race.

Maximus Alexander

Uriel. wrote: »

personally I am not sure that running three will necessarily tell us a lot, given there's an extra team. but am open to suggested strategies that might work with a 2 or a 3 person race.

Andy, you're usually solid at this kind of stuff. Thoughts?

crosstownk

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

I wouldn't be so sure of this. The rules may differ of course, but last time out the wolves didn't know who the assassin was.

Agreed. The assassin was unknown to the wolves until the task was completed.

y0ssar1an22

how about people with low post counts?

sullivlo

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

how about people with low post counts?

Says the person who's posting the most...

Uriel.

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

how about people with low post counts?

if you keep this up, you'll have nominated every single player for a lynch by the end of the day.

Digital Solitude

sullivlo wrote: »

Maybe GM can confirm?

The teams didn't know their third member

Stoogie

Uriel. wrote: »

There be no munching sully.... they be a slaughtering now.... get with the times :D

I have voted ShatterProof because of his "I live with the fear of the few with the gift" thing.
I was not going to mention this, but as a new player some of the reasons for things are a bit a different game ago. Bringing up the point that MicksJaguar lost the last game and so he should be killed because he's either a baddie or a dope is just one example.
Sorry Maximus.

Maximus Alexander

Stoogie wrote: »

I have voted ShatterProof because of his "I live with the fear of the few with the gift" thing.
I was not going to mention this, but as a new player some of the reasons for things are a bit a different game ago. Bringing up the point that MicksJaguar lost the last game and so he should be killed because he's either a baddie or a dope is just one example.
Sorry Maximus.

That's fair enough, I don't expect you to just fall in behind me. But I have to present my own reasons.

Stoogie

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

That's fair enough, I don't expect you to just fall in behind me. But I have to present my own reasons.

Well I did fall in behind you, you just kept changing
I think Shatterproof or MicksJaguar is fine and as I said I have voted Shatterproof.

y0ssar1an22

Stoogie wrote: »

Well I did fall in behind you, you just kept changing
I think Shatterproof or MicksJaguar is fine and as I said I have voted Shatterproof.

not sure if this has already been clarified, but is this vote now locked in? ie: can you change your vote?

Maximus Alexander

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

I'd like to put MicksJaguar up for the following reasons:

The first reason is one most of us can probably agree on. His thing of getting you to write out his name was weird behaviour and weird behaviour is... suspicious.

The second reason is one that only I can be certain of, but it's my reason. Last game he got in a vicious pitched battle with Jayop that lasted most of the game and was a big contributor to the village losing, since both were villagers. This game he has learned nothing and is targeting me, so he'll probably end up doing the exact same thing and distracting the village with pointless witch hunts all game.

The way I see it is: either his weird behaviour is due to a role. In which case lynch him.

Or his weird behaviour is because he's a villager who's going to do more harm than good. In which case lynch him.

If he manages to convince you to lynch me instead, then whenever the priest comes out and finally confirms I was a villager, one of the two above points will be confirmed. So lynch him.

Max you said before we shouldnt bring past game bias into new games yet here you are trying to lynch me over it bit wierd. Its day 1 we dont have much to go on so if any day is good for wild accusations its today as it gets people posting and that is where you get info from when there is none to go on.

The last game since you brought it up I wanted Jayo lynched for info on his second night the fact he kept being saved wasnt my fault sometimes you need to lynch probable villagers for info. Had he lynched earlier it would have been easy to turn attention to others hell in the dead thread you thought he was a wolf.

Ive been off beat in all my games which you know so again weird you'd want me lynched over this behaviour

andy125 wrote: »

I agree mick is as good an option as any, I'm still waiting to hear a grand explanation for the wiredness but I agree he should possibly be up for lynching with one more candidate

There was something I saw which I didnt want to point out but I will now if you want

Triceratops Ballet

My top 3 for lynching (in no particular order)

MicksJaguar - Weirdness over name typing
Shatterproof - triple posting
y0ssar1an22 - making a lot of accusations

I admit they're tenuous reasons, and maybe a more obvious task will come out as the day rolls on, but right now that's all I have

Also races arent as good in this game as there is 3 bad teams not one so they wont give a **** about each other its hard to pinpoint 2 people in a list of 25 if we have one of them up for a lynch (presuming other members have joined)

What voting patterns do people think they will see?

Getting people talking is the only way for info we will see f all from voting patterns for a good few days

Maximus Alexander

Deleted User wrote: »

Max you said before we shouldnt bring past game bias into new games yet here you are trying to lynch me over it bit wierd. Its day 1 we dont have much to go on so if any day is good for wild accusations its today as it gets people posting and that is where you get info from when there is none to go on.

The last game since you brought it up I wanted Jayo lynched for info on his second night the fact he kept being saved wasnt my fault sometimes you need to lynch probable villagers for info. Had he lynched earlier it would have been easy to turn attention to others hell in the dead thread you thought he was a wolf.

Ive been off beat in all my games which you know so again weird you'd want me lynched over this behaviour

I'm sure you can see where I'm coming from though Mick, I think I explained myself pretty fairly. It's not personal, but as you say it's day one and there's little else to go on. I know it would be better not to have bias from previous games, but if you look at it from my perspective and imagine I'm a villager, it looks like I'm watching the same cycle begin again.

Triceratops Ballet

I just re read the rules and I'm unclear, do the Lannisters know who the Baratheons are and vice vearsa? and the Starks are in the dark like the rest of the village?

Maximus Alexander

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

I'm sure you can see where I'm coming from though Mick, I think I explained myself pretty fairly. It's not personal, but as you say it's day one and there's little else to go on. I know it would be better not to have bias from previous games, but if you look at it from my perspective and imagine I'm a villager, it looks like I'm watching the same cycle begin again.

So last game I was a villager doing what you said I am so lynch me?

Jayo should have been lynched his 2nd night up for info and that wasnt me that saved him it was simple enough but other people kept saving him.

By all means put me up but you might as well just lynch me as I said earlier races wont give info in this game this early

Digital Solitude

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

not sure if this has already been clarified, but is this vote now locked in? ie: can you change your vote?

Votes can be changed

pxdf9i5cmoavkz

I'm also up for racing y0ssar1an22. The baseless accusations as well as generating a lot of noise with no rhyme or reason. While this is the first day lynch and it's almost always a villager getting hit, I have no problem lynching a noisy one.

I have voted ShatterProof because of his "I live with the fear of the few with the gift" thing.

I'm trying to understand what triggered this vote of yours? Are you referring to Melisandre training a new follower? I would think that is a good thing. Imagine if Melisandre trains Bran! A lot of valuable information.

Conversely, if Melisandre trains an evil player (Lannister or Baratheon), its not a train smash. If they're lucky they'll get a few names of the enemy faction and work on taking them out. Which indirectly helps us villagers. Fewer baddies to worry about. It will suck if they get a red wedding though

Clare Whining College

Clare Whining College wrote: »

I'm also up for racing y0ssar1an22. The baseless accusations as well as generating a lot of noise with no rhyme or reason. While this is the first day lynch and it's almost always a villager getting hit, I have no problem lynching a noisy one.


(

why?

crosstownk

dottie_lottie wrote: »

I just re read the rules and I'm unclear, do the Lannisters know who the Baratheons are and vice vearsa? and the Starks are in the dark like the rest of the village?

Lannisters know each other with the exception on the +1 who will be known to them once the task is complete. Same for the other two groups. None of the groups know who anyone is outside of their own group.

Maximus Alexander

Deleted User wrote: »

So last game I was a villager doing what you said I am so lynch me?

Well yeah... I mean you don't want to be biased by the roles people had in previous games. But how could you not be influenced by what you've learned about they way that they play?

Maximus Alexander

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Well yeah... I mean you don't want to be biased by the roles people had in previous games. But how could you not be influenced by what you've learned about they way that they play?

Im not saying you cant but I was a villager in the last game and you want to lynch me over playing the same way. If you think Im a bad villager would you not just say cop on instead of lynching a villager?

Maximus Alexander

Maximus Alexander wrote: »

Well yeah... I mean you don't want to be biased by the roles people had in previous games. But how could you not be influenced by what you've learned about they way that they play?

Why did you put way in italics?