Trump vs. Hillary - the 1st Debate. Live on C4, Sky and BBC News

Inquitus

Trump
Pros: Trump will command the stage, has a presence Hillary can't match and his years on the Apprentice have certainly honed his ability to milk and work a Crowd.
Cons: Every second thing he says is a lie or skirts the truth, very lightweight on his Economics, Foreign Policy. Prone to put his foot firmly in his mouth, also prone to getting away with it.

Hillary
Pros: A life in Politics and Public Service, a real knowledge of Economics, Foreign Policy and what being president is all about. Former lawyer and very good debater.
Cons: Does not like the limelight and it shows, failed to really enthuse the crowd when making her acceptance speech at the DNC, may wilt under the glare.

Clinton should be able to wipe the floor with Trump in any ordinary debate, but who knows what format this will take, whether Trump will get called by the moderator for lying, whether he can just bluster his way through 90mins, of "Crooked Hillary", "Email servers", "Big Banks", "Bill's Infidelity". Do American's even really care if he tells lies, to this point despite multiple headlines last week and in the Sundays his poll numbers haven't taken a hit in line with the lies he's telling. An in the case of Brexit being a similar protest movement to a degree as Trump is, maybe people don't care about being lied to when they know most Politicians have been lying to them all their careers.

Mod:Available to watch on C4, Sky News and BBC news channel. Online links to YouTube and Twitter are in post 3 below.

Inquitus

Hillary will win narrowly

Can a mod fix option 4 to read "Trump will win narrowly" please?

Overheal

Hillary will win narrowly

Interweb Viewing Options

source: http://gizmodo.com/how-to-stream-tonights-presidential-debate-for-free-no-1786948623

YouTube livestream here:

Twitter livestream @ 8:30 PM EST

https://twitter.com/i/live/778347749217406976

Facebook will stream in conjunction with ABC, presumably at their page:

https://www.facebook.com/ABCNews/



Start time is 9PM EST (1 AM GST)

Mint Sauce

Just seen the debate is being shown on C4, BBC News, and Sky News. Any recommendations for best to watch on, ie, the least bias.

Inquitus

Hillary will win narrowly

Mint Sauce wrote: »

Just seen the debate is being shown on C4, BBC News, and Sky News. Any recommendations for best to watch on, ie, the least bias.

BBC are generally the most Fair and Balanced in the true meaning of the phrase, rather than the Fox News (Sky) idea of the word. Depending on who is doing the Ch4 coverage it could be the best though, I like the Ch4 current affairs team.

Quin_Dub

Am I right in thinking the debate runs without Ad breaks?

Are there any recesses or does it just run right through?

refusetolose

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Am I right in thinking the debate runs without Ad breaks?

Are there any recesses or does it just run right through?

90 mins non stop afaik

Amerika

You forgot one important option... ‘Media proclaims Hillary winner by default because Trump is mean and sexist.’

The weekend before the debate and the media claims there is no coordination with the Clinton campaign… not trying to help Clinton win… not unfairly targeting Donald Trump… blah, blah, blah. Result of claim… Four Pinocchios.

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/09/26/trump-lies-articles-come-weekend-clinton-campaign-course/

Also, Clinton is trying to influence the debate moderators to intercede in the debate, and do it often. That their role as a moderator is to call out lies in real time. Well, unless the moderator can be 100% accurate, and not ‘fact check’ on gray areas that can be interpreted differently, then the moderator should keep his mouth shut and let the so-called 'fact checking' up to the candidates on the stage. We don’t need another Candy Crowley moment.

Amerika

Seems Americans do have a good grip on what is going to happen in the debates.

• 46% of likely US voters believes most moderators will try to help Clinton in the upcoming debates.
• 6% think the moderators will try to help Trump.
• 32% say most of the moderators will try to be unbiased.
• 15% are undecided.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/voters_see_debate_moderators_giving_clinton_a_helping_hand

4068ac1elhodqr

Trump will win narrowly

Forecasting for tonight's debate:

i) DT will decide to wear a gold/yellow tie (not the usual statutory red).
ii) HC will be wearing mostly white, with some token blue also of course.

iii) Imagine there may also be a very very small chance of the debate being cancelled, or at least severely delayed due to protesters or noise disturbances during the live broadcast, due to the unpopularity of both candidates.

Also expect to hear in the 1st few minutes: "Hateful Rhetoric", "...Believe Me", "Who, by the way..."

oik

Forecasting for tonight's debate:

i) DT will decide to wear a gold/yellow tie (not the usual statutory red).
ii) HC will be wearing mostly white, with some token blue also of course.

iii) Imagine there may also be a very very small chance of the debate being cancelled, or at least severely delayed due to protesters or noise disturbances during the live broadcast, due to the unpopularity of both candidates.

Also expect to hear in the 1st few minutes: "Hateful Rhetoric", "...Believe Me", "Who, by the way..."

Paddy Power are giving odds on the first cliche of the night.

Make America Great Again is a good bet at 6/1

4068ac1elhodqr

Trump will win narrowly

oik wrote: »

Paddy Power are giving odds on the first cliche of the night.

Make America Great Again is a good bet at 6/1

Seen the other markets, but not this one, looks good value.

Gold tie is 12/1 which could happen, 50/1 for it to be cancelled due to protesters isn't unrealistic given that so many have been very vocal. There isn't however a market for cancellation due to 'health grounds'.

Inquitus

Hillary will win narrowly

Amerika wrote: »

Seems Americans do have a good grip on what is going to happen in the debates.

• 46% of likely US voters believes most moderators will try to help Clinton in the upcoming debates.
• 6% think the moderators will try to help Trump.
• 32% say most of the moderators will try to be unbiased.
• 15% are undecided.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/voters_see_debate_moderators_giving_clinton_a_helping_hand

So Trump's 46% of the electorate per the polls think he'll get a raw deal, can't say that figure is very surprising given they still back him despite his disregard for the facts at times!

Manach

It should be an interesting, if slightly surreal, debate.

While Trump has a primacy in obfuscating facts it must be said that Clinton is not too far behind. As Scott Adams of Dilbert fame pointed out:
"
2. Confiscation of Property: Clinton proposed a new top Estate Tax of 65% on people with net worth over $500 million. Her website goes to great length to obscure the actual policy details, including the fact that taxes would increase on lower value estates as well. See the total lack of transparency here, where the text simply refers to going back to 2009 rates. It is clear that the intent of the page is to mislead, not inform.

So don’t fall for the claim that Clinton has plenty of policy details on her website. She does, but it is organized to mislead, not to inform. That’s far worse than having no details.

" -http://blog.dilbert.com/post/150919416661/why-i-switched-my-endorsement-from-clinton-to

So the only likely truthful party on that stage would likely be the cameraman.

Amerika

Manach wrote: »

It should be an interesting, if slightly surreal, debate.

While Trump has a primacy in obfuscating facts it must be said that Clinton is not too far behind. As Scott Adams of Dilbert fame pointed out:
"
2. Confiscation of Property: Clinton proposed a new top Estate Tax of 65% on people with net worth over $500 million. Her website goes to great length to obscure the actual policy details, including the fact that taxes would increase on lower value estates as well. See the total lack of transparency here, where the text simply refers to going back to 2009 rates. It is clear that the intent of the page is to mislead, not inform.

So don’t fall for the claim that Clinton has plenty of policy details on her website. She does, but it is organized to mislead, not to inform. That’s far worse than having no details.

" -http://blog.dilbert.com/post/150919416661/why-i-switched-my-endorsement-from-clinton-to

So the only likely truthful party on that stage would likely be the cameraman.

I have to laugh at that proposal. It means nothing. She is just pandering to the Sanders supporters regarding taxing the rich. Who here thinks anyone smart enough to make half a billion dollars isn't smart enough to find a way to avoid this tax? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

K-9

So 52% have their mind made up already really. I'm shocked.

I'm sure boards is far more open minded than that!

oik

Think a draw is the most likely outcome. But a draw helps Trump and hurts Hillary.

I'm expecting Trump to surprise everyone with policy detail. Not necessarily his policy, he may remain vague, but he'll demonstrate an understanding of economics for one. He has a degree in economics from Wharton and a lifetime in business, so he's no dummy and he's capable of impressing the peanut gallery since Clinton has made the mistake of setting the bar very low.

For reference look at some of Trump's testimony before congress from years ago. There are at least two I've seen, one in 1991 about the lack of affordable housing and another about the renovations in the UN building. He demonstrates his business acumen. If that Trump shows up, and I think he will, he wins handily.

oik

So 52% have their mind made up already really. I'm shocked.

I'm sure boards is far more open minded than that!

It's not making up your mind it's making a prediction. Would you prefer everyone answered, I don't know?

K-9

oik wrote: »

It's not making up your mind it's making a prediction. Would you prefer everyone answered, I don't know?

Confirmation bias really, half of them expect it so they'll look for it everywhere. Perfectly human thing to do

oik

Confirmation bias really, half of them expect it so they'll look for it everywhere. Perfectly human thing to do

But you're not human of course...

Suryavarman

Hillary will win narrowly

It's laughable that so many people think Trump will win big. The man is a petulant narcissist, there's no way he's going to be able to keep his cool for an entire 90 minute debate. I'm looking forward to saying "I told you so" at 3:30 AM.

BorneTobyWilde

Trump will win narrowly

If Hilarious Clinton even tries to play dirty Trump will open up a can of worms so big it could engulf the audience .

BorneTobyWilde

Trump will win narrowly

Suryavarman wrote: »

It's laughable that so many people think Trump will win big. The man is a petulant narcissist, there's no way he's going to be able to keep his cool for an entire 90 minute debate. I'm looking forward to saying "I told you so" at 3:30 AM.

I bet you're wrong. I bet Clinton will be the one with no answers to questions she has been avoiding for too long. She will repeat her robotic responses with no detail or answer.

Suryavarman

Hillary will win narrowly

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

I bet you're wrong. I bet Clinton will be the one with no answers to questions she has been avoiding for too long. She will repeat her robotic responses with no detail or answer.

She's going to fail to do something she's done in every debate so far?

oscarBravo

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If Hilarious Clinton even tries to play dirty Trump will open up a can of worms so big it could engulf the audience .

Sure he will. Right after he tells us what his investigators in Hawaii turned up about Obama's birth.

Oh wait: he already admitted that he was full of sh*t in that regard, and his disciples cheered.

oik

It's laughable that so many people think Trump will win big. The man is a petulant narcissist, there's no way he's going to be able to keep his cool for an entire 90 minute debate. I'm looking forward to saying "I told you so" at 3:30 AM.

Your understanding of politics is obviously very one dimensional. For Trump to win big he just has to come across as normal and not scary. Clinton has set the bar for him so low that he doesn't need to jump to get over it. Clinton actually needs to do something to win. And try to avoid fainting.

oik

She's going to fail to do something she's done in every debate so far?

"I for one don't care about Mrs Clinton's emails"

She debated someone who never even intended to be president.

Suryavarman

Hillary will win narrowly

oik wrote: »

Your understanding of politics is obviously very one dimensional. For Trump to win big he just has to come across as normal and not scary. Clinton has set the bar for him so low that he doesn't need to jump to get over it. Clinton actually needs to do something to win. And try to avoid fainting.

He isn't going to do that. End of.

4068ac1elhodqr

Trump will win narrowly

'Stage energy and physiology' during 90mins could be a factor here.
It's often said the winner can be best judged with the sound set to mute.
A sweating Nixon had no chance up against a composed JFK in 1960.

Have a look also at the price of gold, us bank shares and trending on the exchange betting markets, in the morning.
These will likely be the clearest indicators, as opposed to mainly biased pollsters or media commentators.

matthew8

Trump will win big

There won't be any working the crowd at tonight's debate, the audience has been instructed to remain silent. I'd say a slight Hillary win is the most likely outcome, she's not a great public speaker but she'll look and sound a lot more presidential.

StringerBell

Hillary will win narrowly

CNN not picking up the coverage till 2am, Fox 1.50, so I am assuming it won't ge going till at least after 2?

BettePorter

I'm really looking forward to this. Trump has said he will be respectful to her as long as she is to him so I think he ll try to play the nice guy card to goad her into insulting him first. But I don't think he can hide his insanity for a full 90 mins. Hes bound to say something car crash. Not that it will matter of course.

Hillary can sustain debate with knowledge. Trump waffles and insults and tells us what a great fella he is. I think its much more likely that trump will implode than Clinton. But something as simple as Clinton having a drink of water will be seen as weakness to some.

hatrickpatrick

Trump will win narrowly

Tonight is the night when the Democrats are going to realise what they've done and go into full panic mode. There's absolutely no way Clinton can come out of this well unless Trump deliberately throws it, and given the kind of candidate Trump is, that's a rather terrifying scenario we find ourselves in.

Peist2007

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Tonight is the night when the Democrats are going to realise what they've done and go into full panic mode. There's absolutely no way Clinton can come out of this well unless Trump deliberately throws it, and given the kind of candidate Trump is, that's a rather terrifying scenario we find ourselves in.

Have watched the last hour on CNN and the coverage is interesting. First they have Pence in and he is asked about Trump's tax returns. Then they have an interview with one of Hillary's advisers who co-authored a book with Trump and is working with Hillary as Trump is such an awful person. Then there is an interview from the floor with an old retired basketall coach who is pro-Trump.

Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. Ushering voters into the booth to vote for a candidate that hasn't been scrutinised by the media in any balanced form. Pretty nifty tactic.

K-9

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Tonight is the night when the Democrats are going to realise what they've done and go into full panic mode. There's absolutely no way Clinton can come out of this well unless Trump deliberately throws it, and given the kind of candidate Trump is, that's a rather terrifying scenario we find ourselves in.

I genuinely don't have a clue how this will go!

It'll probably end up being boring and respectful which probably favours Trump more because it shows he can be, well, boring and respectful!

ArtSmart

K-9 wrote: »

I genuinely don't have a clue how this will go!

It'll probably end up being boring and respectful which probably favours Trump more because it shows he can be, well, boring and respectful!

Trump's only option is the 'statesman' approach - which will declaw and dehorn him, rendering him ordinary - essentially the kiss of death.

In the 3rd debate he might revert to type in a last ditch bid.

But really he can't win the debates. His snappy putdowns etc won't wash for 90 minutes. His 'somber' approach won't suit. Rock n hard place for the Don.

hatrickpatrick

Trump will win narrowly

"Only Lester Holt knows the questions that will be asked. The Commission does not know or have control over it - and of course, the candidates do."

Is this real life? :pac:

ArtSmart

StringerBell wrote: »

CNN not picking up the coverage till 2am, Fox 1.50, so I am assuming it won't ge going till at least after 2?

It's 2, but the Q's won't be asked until 2.05 or so.

K-9

ArtSmart wrote: »

Trump's only option is the 'statesman' approach - which will declaw and dehorn him, rendering him ordinary - essentially the kiss of death.

In the 3rd debate he might revert to type in a last ditch bid.

But really he can't win the debates. His snappy putdowns etc won't wash for 90 minutes. His 'somber' approach won't suit. Rock n hard place for the Don.

True, his style suits a zero attention span!
Still, the media love a soundbite to parade as news.

For all the memorable Presidential debates down the years, most are forgettable!

ArtSmart

Enoch Melodic Fishhook wrote: »

'Stage energy and physiology' during 90mins could be a factor here.
It's often said the winner can be best judged with the sound set to mute.
A sweating Nixon had no chance up against a composed JFK in 1960.

Have a look also at the price of gold, us bank shares and trending on the exchange betting markets, in the morning.
These will likely be the clearest indicators, as opposed to mainly biased pollsters or media commentators.

The 'markets' are a bunch of clueless sheep.

BorneTobyWilde

Trump will win narrowly

This will be like Happy Gilmore V Shooter McGavin

K-9

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

"Only Lester Holt knows the questions that will be asked. The Commission does not know or have control over it - and of course, the candidates do."

Is this real life? :pac:

Isn't the Commission ran by Democrats and Republicans anyway? So if the candidates know?

hatrickpatrick

Trump will win narrowly

K-9 wrote: »

I genuinely don't have a clue how this will go!

It'll probably end up being boring and respectful which probably favours Trump more because it shows he can be, well, boring and respectful!

I'm hoping for McGregor vs Diaz bottle throwing wars, but with words

Suryavarman

Hillary will win narrowly

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

This will be like Happy Gilmore V Shooter McGavin

I'm hoping this debate is more enjoyable than that dreadful film.

hatrickpatrick

Trump will win narrowly

K-9 wrote: »

Isn't the Commission ran by Democrats and Republicans anyway? So if the candidates know?

Of course - the Separation of Powers in the US seems to boil down only to "We'll let you guys have this if ye let us have that".

ArtSmart

Anyone who is still unsure how they feel about the Don at this stage, aint interested in policy etc. They want hero, a simple non-woman man. But not a simpleton....

learn_more

Trump will win big

I have watched HC in many live debates and I have never seen her do badly. I've never seen her crumble or severely embarrassed by anything her opponents have flung at here.

I think this first debate is being over-hyped by the media, or it's importance at least. I don't think either of them will go in for the kill this time round.

HC camp will watch how Trump will conduct himself, and amend their strategy for the final debates. Trump is the unpredictable candidate here.

I have to say , it's amazing that Trump accuses HC of being dishonest , when Trump makes promises things he can't keep ie.. the Mexican Wall..etc.etc..etc...

My hunch is that despite all the un-likeability of HC, and all that being part of the political elite, rather than that going against her, I think it will go for her despite it being touted as a negative, certainly given the alternative.

Billy86

Hillary will win narrowly

Trump wants to slow diversification down? Reverse. Slow down. Reverse... slow down.

sully123

Draw

Why does she always have to dress like Dr, Zeus?

bur

I'm scared.

tinpib

This is quite exciting isn't it? Wonder how long the novelty will last?